April 22, 2013

I am convinced that Toronto will have a major global competitive advantage in the next century – access to Lake Ontario:

India, the world’s second-most populous nation, is doubling spending on water management to a record as conglomerates from the Tatas to Adani face shortages that the United Nations calls an impending crisis.

Disputes with farmers demanding rights to their irrigated land have stalled about $80 billion of investment by companies including Posco and ArcelorMittal (MT) as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh seeks to revive an economy growing at the slowest pace in a decade. Tata Steel Ltd. (TATA), India’s biggest maker of the alloy, is setting annual targets to cut water usage as two-thirds of the country faces a scarcity, H.M. Nerurkar, managing director said in an April 11 interview.

“Water availability is a very big issue and in the coming days this will be a far bigger issue,” A.P. Choudhary, chairman of Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd., India’s second-biggest state-run steelmaker, said in an interview. “Water is critical for the steel industry’s growth and no company is comfortably placed.”

Toronto area real-estate is already pretty expensive, but if I were a speculating kind of guy, I’d be thinking seriously about buying land in places like Cleveland and Detroit, and just trying to get enough current revenue to break even for the next thirty years.

It’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good:

Donald R. Mullen Jr., who helped Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) profit from the U.S. housing crash, is giving the firm and its clients a way to gain from the recovery.

Mullen, 54, has raised almost $1 billion to buy single- family houses to rent since leaving Goldman Sachs last year as head of global credit and mortgages, five years after overseeing the bank’s bet against the imploding subprime home-loan market. His Fundamental REO LLC has already purchased or is close to acquiring almost 2,500 properties through foreclosure auctions, government agencies and even an Arizona non-profit that promotes affordable-home ownership, property records show.

Spend-Every-Penny is explaining why he has to extend his control over, and micromanagement of, the country’s financial system:

he federal budget, released in March, plans to prohibit lenders from selling insured mortgages to investors through any securitization method that is not managed by federally-run Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp . (CMHC).

That bombshell came “without any warning and without any consultation,” said Stephen Smith, president of the largest non-bank lender, First National. Speaking at the National Bank Canadian Financial Services Conference, Mr. Smith said the “collateral damage” to ABCP and smaller lenders “was not fully considered” by government officials.

In a statement, a Department of Finance official explained the government’s reasoning as follows:

“The Government is making these changes to increase market discipline in residential lending and reduce taxpayer exposure to the housing sector. Funding channels that use taxpayer-backed insured mortgages should be subject to minimum standards and Canadian oversight in order to promote financial stability.”

What the new rules really do is force lenders to sell their mortgages in the specific method dictated by Ottawa, as opposed to potentially lower cost private securitization.

The Central Planners have learnt the lessons of the Credit Crunch well – you can justify any idiocy you like, as long as you chant the magic words: “Hocus Pocus, Financial Stability, Abracadabra!”

Stop the presses! Gensler of the CFTC said something sensible!

Two interest rate benchmarks that banks were fined for rigging should be scrapped and replaced by indicators based on market transactions, a top U.S. regulator said on Monday.

The changes should also include benchmarks linked to gold, oil and other commodities, said Gary Gensler, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Regrettably, he did not explain how such a ban would be enforced. But doubtless there are lots of levers to use – call it terrorism, for instance. That’s what the Brits do.

We now know why the feds introduced covered bond legislation: it was to give a regulatory advantage to their future employers:

DBRS notes that there appear to be two unintended consequences of the legislation and the Guide, based on discussions with several Canadian issuers over the past few months.

First, as the requirements for continuous disclosure and data compliance required by the Guide are broad, extensive and, at times, onerous, the amount of time and effort required to comply with the mandated standard is substantial, which is also expected to be costly. Therefore, DBRS is of the opinion that lenders other than domestic systemically important banks (DSIBs) are not likely to pursue registration as a covered bond issuer under the legislation, and would therefore be at a disadvantage without the benefit of covered bond funding.

Second, as the legislation explicitly prohibits the issuance of covered bonds without registration, DBRS does not expect to see any coexistence of registered covered bonds and non-registered covered bonds in Canada, except for existing grandfathered covered bond programs.

It was a good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums gaining 3bp, FixedResets winning 32bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 14bp. Volatility was very good, dominated by winning FixedResets. Volume was quite high.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2306 % 2,592.4
FixedFloater 3.97 % 3.20 % 32,755 18.74 1 -1.4839 % 4,133.4
Floater 2.68 % 2.88 % 83,600 20.05 4 0.2306 % 2,799.1
OpRet 4.81 % 2.18 % 63,087 0.19 5 0.0000 % 2,606.8
SplitShare 4.80 % 4.03 % 127,316 4.12 5 -0.0078 % 2,962.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 2,383.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.19 % 3.07 % 84,755 0.85 32 0.0279 % 2,377.8
Perpetual-Discount 4.84 % 4.84 % 169,807 15.72 4 0.0000 % 2,690.0
FixedReset 4.93 % 2.81 % 251,665 3.78 80 0.3176 % 2,503.0
Deemed-Retractible 4.87 % 3.52 % 129,030 1.38 44 0.1449 % 2,451.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-04-22
Maturity Price : 22.92
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 3.20 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.13
Bid-YTW : 3.04 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-04-22
Maturity Price : 23.76
Evaluated at bid price : 25.59
Bid-YTW : 2.53 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.17
Bid-YTW : 3.06 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.58
Bid-YTW : 3.00 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.10
Bid-YTW : 3.15 %
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.24
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.36
Bid-YTW : 2.99 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 6.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-12-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.33
Bid-YTW : 2.98 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Premium 175,668 Scotia crossed 40,000 at 25.55. RBC crossed blocks of 50,000 and 49,900 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.55
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset 105,550 Nesbitt crossed 100,000 at 26.05.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.13
Bid-YTW : 3.04 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 76,990 TD bought 20,700 from RBC at 26.05.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-04-22
Maturity Price : 23.40
Evaluated at bid price : 26.02
Bid-YTW : 3.34 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Premium 74,380 TD crossed blocks of 35,000 and 25,000, both at 25.51.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.55
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 68,689 National crossed 20,000 at 26.75. Scotia crossed 25,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.58
Bid-YTW : 3.29 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset 57,907 RBC crossed 35,200 at 24.86.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.80
Bid-YTW : 2.90 %
There were 49 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
RY.PR.I FixedReset Quote: 25.46 – 25.86
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2571

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.46
Bid-YTW : 3.11 %

IAG.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 25.68 – 25.99
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2032

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.68
Bid-YTW : 2.77 %

BAM.PR.G FixedFloater Quote: 23.90 – 24.40
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.4043

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-04-22
Maturity Price : 22.92
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 3.20 %

MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.75 – 25.08
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2492

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %

IAG.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 26.36 – 26.64
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1999

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.36
Bid-YTW : 2.99 %

FTS.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 25.06 – 25.28
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1443

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-04-22
Maturity Price : 24.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.06
Bid-YTW : 3.27 %

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