August 13, 2013

Everything is Morgan Stanley’s fault!

Institutional investors’ allocations to dollar-denominated bonds have dropped to the lowest level since 2007 as strategists at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see a shift away from the debt that may fuel higher borrowing costs.

Holdings by investors from pensions to endowments fell to 26.2 percent of assets in the second quarter, from 30.1 percent in the corresponding period of 2012, according to the Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service, which tracks plans that oversee $3.46 trillion. Morgan Stanley’s $1.8 trillion wealth management unit has been advising clients to cut bond allocations to the lowest in more than five years, Chief Investment Strategist David Darst said.

Institutional investors such as corporate and public pensions have reduced their median allocation to U.S. bonds from 32 percent of their assets in the last three months of 2011, according to data compiled by Wilshire Associates Inc., whose Trust Universe Comparison Service tracks more than 1,700 plans.
The current proportion of dollar-denominated debt holdings is the least since the fourth quarter of 2007, Kim Shepherd, a spokeswoman for the firm, said in an e-mail.

“There is movement by institutional investors out of investment-grade bonds,” said Eileen Neill, a managing director in the consulting division of Wilshire, a Santa Monica, California-based financial advisory firm. “It’s not out of fear of bonds, it’s out of necessity because of the low yields. They’re moving to higher yielding bonds and emerging markets debt.”

Individual investors have been shifting to stocks from bonds as well. The gap between flows into bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds and those focused on equities widened to $70 billion in June, the most ever, according to JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in London.

The bank-owned Toronto Stock Exchange is up to its usual tricks today. It sold me very expensive data indicating that the “last” quote for CIU.PR.C was 6.83-23.99. When I went to their website to check the last few trades, I was informed that the “last” quote was 24.41-23.99 … bid bigger than the ask. Not even the most cursory editor … so in despair, I have put it into HIMIPref™ as 22.99-23.99.

Wonder of wonders, it was mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 12bp, FixedResets down 16bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 9bp. Lots of volatility, with FixedResets prominent on the down side. Volume was high.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0485 % 2,641.7
FixedFloater 4.37 % 3.66 % 31,134 18.05 1 -0.6396 % 3,801.7
Floater 2.55 % 2.83 % 72,842 20.12 5 -0.0485 % 2,852.3
OpRet 4.64 % 3.92 % 75,956 2.80 3 1.0027 % 2,599.3
SplitShare 4.69 % 4.69 % 54,839 4.13 6 -0.1224 % 2,956.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.0027 % 2,376.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.73 % 5.80 % 92,724 14.16 12 0.0847 % 2,262.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.63 % 5.70 % 155,300 14.30 25 -0.1208 % 2,290.7
FixedReset 5.05 % 3.93 % 235,890 4.64 85 -0.1641 % 2,417.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.23 % 5.25 % 185,752 6.95 43 0.0875 % 2,314.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CIU.PR.C FixedReset -4.41 % Probably not entirely real – I guessed at the bid price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 22.46
Evaluated at bid price : 22.99
Bid-YTW : 3.46 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset -3.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.72
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -3.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -2.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 22.09
Evaluated at bid price : 22.40
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -2.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 20.55
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 3.87 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset -2.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.18
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.85
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 21.91
Evaluated at bid price : 22.25
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.75
Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 20.44
Evaluated at bid price : 20.44
Bid-YTW : 5.52 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 20.26
Evaluated at bid price : 20.26
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 23.49
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.51
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
CIU.PR.B FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.85
Bid-YTW : 6.48 %
ENB.PR.Y FixedReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 22.28
Evaluated at bid price : 23.09
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 6.46 %
TD.PR.P Deemed-Retractible -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
RY.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
RY.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.26
Bid-YTW : 5.14 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Premium 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 24.64
Evaluated at bid price : 24.90
Bid-YTW : 5.53 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 21.83
Evaluated at bid price : 22.20
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %
ENB.PR.D FixedReset 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 22.56
Evaluated at bid price : 23.47
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
BMO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible 1.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.56
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 2.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 22.12
Evaluated at bid price : 22.39
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 2.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 22.02
Evaluated at bid price : 22.29
Bid-YTW : 3.87 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet 3.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.05
Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.L FixedReset 90,895 RBC bought 20,000 from CIBC at 25.55, then crossed 40,000 at 25.59.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.61
Bid-YTW : 3.35 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 67,741 RBC crossed 50,000 at 24.79.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.73
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
TD.PR.R Deemed-Retractible 43,990 RBC crossed 39,000 at 25.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.61
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 38,850 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 20.26
Evaluated at bid price : 20.26
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
BMO.PR.O FixedReset 36,820 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.56
Bid-YTW : 3.29 %
BMO.PR.J Deemed-Retractible 34,135 TD crossed 13,800 at 24.21.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.36
Bid-YTW : 4.88 %
There were 56 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CIU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 22.99 – 23.99
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.6394

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 22.46
Evaluated at bid price : 22.99
Bid-YTW : 3.46 %

BAM.PR.G FixedFloater Quote: 21.75 – 22.63
Spot Rate : 0.8800
Average : 0.6347

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-13
Maturity Price : 22.27
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %

HSB.PR.D Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.00 – 25.50
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3067

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %

FTS.PR.E OpRet Quote: 25.96 – 26.52
Spot Rate : 0.5600
Average : 0.3992

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2016-08-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.96
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %

CIU.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 25.21 – 25.71
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3582

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %

ABK.PR.C SplitShare Quote: 31.67 – 32.19
Spot Rate : 0.5200
Average : 0.3812

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-09
Maturity Price : 31.64
Evaluated at bid price : 31.67
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %

2 Responses to “August 13, 2013”

  1. nervousone says:

    Good afternoon,

    Further to our previous conversations about the role of the FOMC, here’s a press release pertaining to a speech given today by the St. Louis Fed President, where he re-iterated a really revealing statement from his previous speech about how tapering must continue to be data-based . . . wow . . . ya think? . . . and then, the kicker, how he thinks Ben Bernanke needs to give more . . . you guessed it . . . speeches.

    James . . . I know you love these guys, and I respect the positions they occupy . . . but I have to re-iterate my previous statement . . . these FOMC guys really spend the majority of their time . . . “chatting to the masses”, and jawboning for market reaction (and that seems to be about it).

    Here’s the release:

    —————————–

    PADUCAH, Ky., Aug 14 (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve
    needs to gather more evidence that the economy is improving and
    inflation heading higher before deciding to taper its massive
    bond buying program, a senior U.S. central bank official said on
    Wednesday.
    “The committee still needs to see more data on the
    macroeconomic performance for the second half of 2013 before
    making a judgment on this matter,” St. Louis Federal Reserve
    President James Bullard said in prepared remarks. The remarks
    largely echoed a speech he gave earlier this month in Boston.
    He also said the Fed chairman ought give a press conference
    following every policy meeting, instead of once a quarter as is
    currently the practice. The greater frequency would prevent
    policy decisions being held up or brought forward to coincide
    with a press conference, to give the chairman a chance to
    explain the decision.
    (Reporting by Alister Bull; Editing by Leslie Adler)
    ((alister.bull@thomsonreuters.com)(+1-202-898-8329)(Reuters
    Messaging: alister.bull.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
    Keywords: USA FED/BULLARD TAPERING

  2. Nestor says:

    “..these FOMC guys really spend the majority of their time . . . “chatting to the masses”, and jawboning for market reaction (and that seems to be about it).”

    i certainly didn’t get that impression when i met Al Boraddus back in ’94.

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