Changes in Fed policy can disproportionate effects:
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Fed officials will probably be careful about altering the pace of their reductions to bond buying because of a potentially significant impact on markets.
“If we move off our baseline, it’s going to have pretty big repercussions,” Bullard said today in an interview at Bloomberg’s headquarters in New York. “We’d be cautious in using that — it’s going to have to be a situation where you’re pretty sure things are moving off track.”
…
Bullard said the market’s reaction last June to a potential tapering, and the impact of the Fed’s surprise decision in September to maintain the pace of its asset purchases, illustrated that fluctuations in the amount of quantitative easing have “powerful” consequences.In June, global equity markets lost $3 trillion in the five days after former Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he might reduce his $85 billion in monthly asset purchases that year and end them by mid-2014. In September, the Fed refrained from tapering, reversing a rise in bond yields and pushing back expectations for a tightening of monetary policy.
“In both of these cases, it showed it really matters a lot,” Bullard said. “Flow-based purchases have been really a powerful tool.”
Market movement was modest for Canadian preferred shares today, with PerpetualDiscounts off 2bp, FixedResets gaining 2bp and DeemedRetractibles up 3bp. The Performance Highlights table is notable for two winning Floating Rate issues. Volume was average.
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1.1963 % | 2,419.9 |
FixedFloater | 4.75 % | 4.33 % | 29,742 | 17.75 | 1 | -0.1498 % | 3,572.8 |
Floater | 2.99 % | 3.07 % | 54,008 | 19.52 | 4 | 1.1963 % | 2,612.8 |
OpRet | 4.61 % | -0.61 % | 70,954 | 0.13 | 3 | -0.0384 % | 2,686.8 |
SplitShare | 4.88 % | 5.09 % | 63,135 | 4.34 | 5 | -0.1448 % | 3,007.5 |
Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0384 % | 2,456.8 |
Perpetual-Premium | 5.67 % | 1.23 % | 94,948 | 0.08 | 12 | 0.0000 % | 2,333.9 |
Perpetual-Discount | 5.56 % | 5.58 % | 150,800 | 14.50 | 26 | -0.0543 % | 2,385.5 |
FixedReset | 4.91 % | 3.72 % | 212,924 | 6.24 | 82 | 0.0248 % | 2,486.8 |
Deemed-Retractible | 5.12 % | 4.12 % | 163,399 | 1.93 | 42 | 0.0332 % | 2,422.6 |
FloatingReset | 2.65 % | 2.59 % | 164,270 | 4.60 | 6 | -0.0469 % | 2,441.2 |
Performance Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
GWO.PR.N | FixedReset | -1.15 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.55 Bid-YTW : 4.74 % |
BAM.PR.X | FixedReset | -1.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2044-02-13 Maturity Price : 20.67 Evaluated at bid price : 20.67 Bid-YTW : 4.43 % |
TD.PR.Y | FixedReset | 1.01 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.03 Bid-YTW : 3.47 % |
BAM.PR.C | Floater | 1.30 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2044-02-13 Maturity Price : 17.09 Evaluated at bid price : 17.09 Bid-YTW : 3.10 % |
BAM.PR.B | Floater | 2.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2044-02-13 Maturity Price : 17.25 Evaluated at bid price : 17.25 Bid-YTW : 3.07 % |
Volume Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
BMO.PR.R | FloatingReset | 291,900 | Issue Reset Spread of 165bp makes the dividend prospects to Deemed Maturity so dreary that a fast call has basically the same yield as the Deemed Maturity scenario. TD crossed 289,300 at 24.65. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2018-08-25 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.79 Bid-YTW : 2.59 % |
SLF.PR.G | FixedReset | 183,230 | Nesbitt crossed 155,200 at 22.15. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.15 Bid-YTW : 4.60 % |
BNS.PR.Z | FixedReset | 165,887 | RBC crossed two blocks of 75,000 each, both at 23.74. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.72 Bid-YTW : 3.93 % |
GWO.PR.I | Deemed-Retractible | 125,900 | Nesbitt crossed 100,000 at 21.45. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.31 Bid-YTW : 6.51 % |
BAM.PR.G | FixedFloater | 74,765 | Nesbitt crossed 71,300 at 20.06. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2044-02-13 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.00 Bid-YTW : 4.33 % |
NA.PR.S | FixedReset | 65,416 | Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2044-02-13 Maturity Price : 23.15 Evaluated at bid price : 25.02 Bid-YTW : 3.91 % |
There were 33 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. |
Wide Spread Highlights | ||
Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
ELF.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 20.91 – 21.31 Spot Rate : 0.4000 Average : 0.3093 YTW SCENARIO |
FTS.PR.H | FixedReset | Quote: 20.90 – 21.19 Spot Rate : 0.2900 Average : 0.2056 YTW SCENARIO |
ENB.PR.F | FixedReset | Quote: 24.21 – 24.40 Spot Rate : 0.1900 Average : 0.1080 YTW SCENARIO |
BAM.PR.X | FixedReset | Quote: 20.67 – 20.95 Spot Rate : 0.2800 Average : 0.1993 YTW SCENARIO |
CGI.PR.D | SplitShare | Quote: 24.41 – 24.73 Spot Rate : 0.3200 Average : 0.2415 YTW SCENARIO |
ENB.PR.D | FixedReset | Quote: 23.82 – 24.07 Spot Rate : 0.2500 Average : 0.1786 YTW SCENARIO |
Wait, what? 11 year (Deemed retractible) maturity yielding 6.5?
Isn’t that a bit off the regression line?
GWO.PR.I
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.31
Bid-YTW : 6.51 %
I have just approved your comment – sorry it took so long! I’ve only just got caught up on deleting spam comments in the moderation queue and approving the non-spam.
On the bright side, now that you have an approved comment, your next one won’t have to moderated and should appear on the blog as soon as you press enter.
With respect to your comment – not as much as you might think! Here are some charts:
Performance in the eighteen days your comment has been neglected has been:
Performance
2014-2-13 to 2014-3-3
Return
The effect of the steepening of the dividend / Current Yield curve indicated by the increase in implied volatility is plainly apparent.