July 24, 2008

A story on Bloomberg discussed the repercussions of the liquidity freeze-up in US Auction Rate Securities:

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo filed a lawsuit against UBS AG over its role in the sale of auction-rate securities, five months after the market collapsed, stranding investors.

Cuomo alleges the Zurich-based bank committed fraud by misleading investors in its marketing of the long-term securities as money market-like instruments that were easy to buy and sell. UBS continued selling the debt even as the market unraveled and top bank executives unloaded $21 million in personal auction-rate holdings, Cuomo’s suit alleges.

… and, to my gratification, included a link to the Massachusetts lawsuit site. The complaint against UBS alleges many things, but what it all boils down to is that some people have made an investment that didn’t work out as intended.

Just where to draw the regulatory line is a matter of opinion. I just hope the regulators and politicians know where their current hard line attitude is taking us: to a world where brokerages are on the hook for whatever they sell their clients and therefore offer nothing but the blandest investments possible. It’s regulation by headline and it will ultimately cost us all a great deal of money.

It leads to another interesting thought … if banks are to be on the hook for short-term paper they sell to their retail clients, shouldn’t this be recognized as credit risk (in addition to operational risk) for capital calculation purposes? I’ve already advocated that their exposure to their branded MMFs be recognized.

As far as today is concerned … so much for the financial rally:

U.S. stocks tumbled, sending financial shares to their worst drop in eight years, after home sales slid more than forecast …

Financial stocks in the S&P 500 fell 6.7 percent as a group, the third drop in the past three weeks greater than 5 percent. Today’s slump follows a six-day, 30 percent rally spurred by better-than-estimated earnings reports from Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo and legislation to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

I wonder how many sigmas that makes?

PerpetualDiscounts managed to eke out a two-basis-point gain today (which, when you annualize it, is about right) keeping the streak alive: there have been six consecutive gains.

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A
Fixed-Floater 4.68% 4.40% 69,576 16.32 6 -0.0067% 1,084.2
Floater 4.14% 4.16% 58,395 17.08 3 +0.8780% 891.6
Op. Retract 4.99% 4.47% 137,526 3.42 17 -0.0353% 1,040.6
Split-Share 5.38% 6.14% 61,694 4.50 14 -0.0084% 1,028.5
Interest Bearing 6.15% 6.23% 41,154 3.69 3 -0.2349% 1,120.3
Perpetual-Premium 6.17% 6.18% 71,954 10.61 4 -0.0305% 976.8
Perpetual-Discount 6.34% 6.40% 231,051 13.36 67 +0.0216% 836.6
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
POW.PR.D PerpetualDiscount -3.2990% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.73% based on a bid of 18.76 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.H PerpetualDiscount -2.8698% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.56% based on a bid of 22.00 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.M Floater
PerpetualDiscount
-2.1674% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.41% based on a bid of 16.25 and a limitMaturity.
W.PR.J PerpetualDiscount -1.7138% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.66% based on a bid of 21.22 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.B PerpetualDiscount -1.5789% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.50% based on a bid of 18.70 and a limitMaturity.
POW.PR.A PerpetualDiscount -1.5632% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.60% based on a bid of 21.41 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.F PerpetualDiscount -1.4444% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.28% based on a bid of 17.74 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.I OpRet -1.1837% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.32% based on a bid of 24.21 and softMaturity 2013-12-30 at 25.00. Compare with BAM.PR.H (6.43% to 2012-3-30), BAM.PR.J (7.06% to 2018-3-30) and BAM.PR.O (6.57% to 2013-6-30).
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount -1.0440% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.19% based on a bid of 18.01 and a limitMaturity.
ALB.PR.A OpRet -1.0204% Asset coverage of just under 1.6:1 as of July 17 according to Scotia Managed Companies. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.80% based on a bid of 24.25 and a hardMaturity 2011-2-28.
BAM.PR.O OpRet -1.0105% See BAM.PR.I, above.
ELF.PR.F PerpetualDiscount +1.1873% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.14% based on a bid of 18.75 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.J PerpetualDiscount +1.4916% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.66% based on a bid of 17.01 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.K PerpetualDiscount +1.5175% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.42% based on a bid of 19.40 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.H PerpetualDiscount +1.5536% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.26% based on a bid of 19.61 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +1.6851% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.44% based on a bid of 17.50 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.G PerpetualDiscount +1.8096% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.27% based on a bid of 23.63 and a limitMaturity.
NA.PR.M PerpetualDiscount +1.8480% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.06% based on a bid of 24.80 and a limitMaturity.
POW.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +1.9990% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.30% based on a bid of 21.43 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.B Floater +2.1070%  
POW.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +2.4512% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.48% based on a bid of 22.57 and a limitMaturity.
MFC.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +2.6140% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.89% based on a bid of 20.02 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +2.7825% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.29% based on a bid of 18.10 and a limitMaturity.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BCE.PR.A FixFloat 290,900 CIBC crossed three blocks at 24.35: 50,000, 200,000 and 40,500.
BNS.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 108,439 “Anonymous” bought & sold (or maybe crossed) 79,000 at 21.25.Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.21% based on a bid of 21.27 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.N PerpetualDiscount 43,400 “Anonymous” bought & sold (or maybe crossed) 40,000 at 21.60. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.12% based on a bid of 21.54 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.N PerpetualDiscount 30,440 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.39% based on a bid of 16.30 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 27,521 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.81% based on a bid of 17.39 and a limitMaturity.

There were twenty-three other index-included $25-pv-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

3 Responses to “July 24, 2008”

  1. Re BAM.PR.M …

    It shows in the above list as a floater. AFAIK it’s a fixed perpetual. Earlier comments re the issue all show it as such.

  2. prefhound says:

    The one-month (last 21 trading days) daily standard deviation for XLF (financial sector SPDR) is about 4.7% (based on log price change). Therefore, today’s loss can be seen as -1.5 sigma in this context. Based on the log normal distribution this has a probability of about 7% — 1 day in 16 with the benefit of hindsight. Shrug.

    Extreme values of the down and up variety tend to cluster. Volatility has increased nearly 4X: a year ago the daily standard deviation for XLF was 1.2%. Volatility takes a while to dampen down and has a habit of spiking anew.

    We are still in the middle of the financial crisis and even if there are no more Bear Stearns or Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac to come, other potential bombshells still lurk: monoline bond insurer failure, more brokerage problems (Lehman?), true recession, globalization of the US recession, protectionism if trade talks fail, terrorism, war, etc. etc.

    The half life of extreme volatility (time to get extreme volatility down by half) for S&P-500 or Nasdaq is a few months, so I expect financials to remain quite volatilie for at least that much longer. Just look at the trading history of US banks in the 2000-2003 period. Things could still get worse before they get better, but I doubt anyone knows for sure.

  3. jiHymas says:

    Norbert – Quite right. I’ve fixed it. Hopefully this kind of stenographical error will be much rarer once I’ve automated the table making process.

    prefhound – Really? 1.5% Standard Deviation? That sounds like quite a bit … how many days are outside the confidence interval?

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