September 5, 2014

US jobs numbers disappointed:

Payrolls climbed by 142,000 workers, less than the 230,000 median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and the smallest gain this year, data from the Labor Department showed today. The unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent from 6.2 percent in July as people left the workforce.

… but it’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good:

U.S. stocks rose a fifth week, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) its longest rally this year, as investors speculated weaker jobs growth will prevent the Federal Reserve from raising rates sooner than anticipated.

European shares rallied for a fourth week after the region’s central bank boosted stimulus. Emerging-market equities advanced, led by Russia’s Micex Index, after Ukraine and rebels agreed to a cease-fire. Producers of consumer products led U.S. stocks higher, while energy shares sank as oil tumbled for the sixth time in seven weeks. Apple Inc. (AAPL) dropped the most since February after a competitor introduced new smartphones.

The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to a record 2,007.71, reversing losses on the final day after three straight declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) added 38.91 points, or 0.2 percent, to 17,137.36, ending the week less than one point from an all-time high.

Canadian numbers were even worse:

Employment in Canada’s private sector is at a standstill.

While monthly employment readings have seesawed through the year, one trend is clear: Private companies are in no mood to hire, having shed a record 111,800 jobs in August, according to Statistics Canada.

Month-to-month measures have been volatile but the longer-term view shows full-time and private positions have barely budged in a year, while eight in 10 new jobs have been part-time.

Private-sector hiring tumbled as the manufacturing, trade and professional services sectors cut jobs. The share of people working in manufacturing has ebbed to a record low this summer. The public sector added 14,000 jobs and self employment rose by 86,900, a record gain.

The outsized readings on private-sector losses and self-employment gains raised eyebrows. Bank of Nova Scotia economists Derek Holt and Dov Zigler called the numbers “very fishy” and advised clients to be “very careful” in drawing conclusions from the monthly data.

Skepticism over the data comes after the agency was forced to correct its July jobs numbers. That month saw a gain of 41,700 positions rather than the 200 jobs it had originally reported, a mistake attributed to an incomplete understanding of changes that occurred in the redesign of its survey.

The broader picture shows employment levels in the private sector “has been relatively flat since the fall of 2013,” Statistics Canada observed.

It was a good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 15bp, FixedResets up 11bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 3bp. Volatility was good, dominated by winning FixedResets. Volume was low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3603 % 2,644.7
FixedFloater 4.15 % 3.40 % 24,948 18.57 1 -0.0437 % 4,178.5
Floater 2.90 % 3.06 % 49,230 19.50 4 0.3603 % 2,734.9
OpRet 4.05 % -0.73 % 96,539 0.08 1 -0.0790 % 2,727.1
SplitShare 4.28 % 3.89 % 120,421 3.95 5 0.0311 % 3,152.9
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0790 % 2,493.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.47 % 0.38 % 76,722 0.09 20 -0.0609 % 2,437.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.21 % 5.15 % 105,951 15.19 16 0.1527 % 2,608.1
FixedReset 4.24 % 3.69 % 180,462 6.63 74 0.1059 % 2,569.1
Deemed-Retractible 4.99 % 0.92 % 103,588 0.15 42 0.0332 % 2,567.1
FloatingReset 2.62 % 1.92 % 75,688 0.08 6 0.1703 % 2,532.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.A Floater 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-05
Maturity Price : 20.75
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 2.54 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-05
Maturity Price : 23.31
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : 3.82 %
CIU.PR.C FixedReset 1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-05
Maturity Price : 20.83
Evaluated at bid price : 20.83
Bid-YTW : 3.63 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 1.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.94
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-05
Maturity Price : 22.27
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 3.95 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 4.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-05
Maturity Price : 23.20
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset 106,214 Nesbitt crossed 100,000 at 24.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.73
Bid-YTW : 3.25 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 43,004 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-05
Maturity Price : 23.20
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 29,850 Nesbitt crossed 11,100 at 24.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 25,500 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-05
Maturity Price : 23.17
Evaluated at bid price : 25.06
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
BAM.PR.P FixedReset 25,189 Called for redemption September 30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.41
Bid-YTW : 2.93 %
ENB.PF.E FixedReset 24,833 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-05
Maturity Price : 23.16
Evaluated at bid price : 25.12
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
There were 15 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PVS.PR.C SplitShare Quote: 25.74 – 26.74
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.7037

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2017-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.74
Bid-YTW : 3.89 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 25.62 – 25.89
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1862

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-10-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.62
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %

ENB.PF.A FixedReset Quote: 24.85 – 25.06
Spot Rate : 0.2100
Average : 0.1322

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-05
Maturity Price : 23.10
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %

SLF.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 22.46 – 22.67
Spot Rate : 0.2100
Average : 0.1401

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.46
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %

MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.20 – 23.44
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1711

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.20
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %

GWO.PR.S Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.26 – 25.58
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2541

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.26
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.