Bloomberg published some vignettes of those affected by the Vancouver property bubble:
One of those benefiting is a luxury car dealership run by Caleb Kwok, 37, general sales manager at Vancouver’s MCL Motor Cars. It’s selling Bentleys, Jaguars, Aston Martins and Range Rovers so fast that it has had to extend its hours and boosted staff by nearly a third.
“For not being a real big-time city, there sure are a lot of luxury cars in Vancouver,” Kwok says as he walks around the downtown showroom where a special edition, C$250,000 Range Rover SVAutobiography with two-tone paint, reclining rear seats, and tray tables for drinks is about to be driven off by a customer.
…
She listed it in April for C$1.288 million, appealing to local Chinese buyers with the lucky number eight. Within 24 hours, four bids came in. They sold within just a few days to a young family for C$1.5 million, no conditions.“It was surreal,” the retired Air Canada flight attendant said from a boat near her new home in Qualicum Beach, a town of 10,000 people on Vancouver Island a 1-1/2 hour-ferry ride from the city. “It happened so fast. You can’t believe how many people have done the same—moved to Qualicum and the islands. People are flooding in from the mainland with cash in their pocket.”
She bought her new house for less than half of what she got for her old one, part of the flow of “halfers” from Vancouver, as brokers call them. The new property is double the size at 4,000 square feet and has five bedrooms, a view of the water, and half an acre of garden.
And the Canadian economy is getting more dependent upon a distorted housing market:
Canada is in the midst of one of its weakest expansions ever, and only the housing boom keeps it from getting worse.
That’s one of the key takeaways from Friday’s GDP report. Two years since oil prices started plunging, Canada’s economy is almost completely reliant for growth on bank lending and the hot Vancouver and Toronto housing markets.
Real estate and financial services now account for 20 percent of the economy, levels not seen in the data since the early 1960s. That could be a problem, with household debt at a record and policy makers scrambling to slow price gains that are making homes unaffordable for all but the wealthiest buyers.
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Well … I won’t say it makes a crash inevitable, but I’ll say that’s a red flag!
West coast readers will be pleased to learn that I have solved the problem of Vancouver housing affordability:
Calgary’s housing market is bracing for more pain as persistently weak oil prices, mounting layoffs and slowing population growth continue to keep buyers on the sidelines.
Home resales in the city fell 12.6 per cent in July from the same time last year, the Calgary Real Estate Board reported. It was the 20th consecutive month of annualized sales declines as purchases of detached homes dropped to their lowest level since 1996.
“We’ve certainly got a softer market than we did a year ago,” said Diane Scott, a broker with Royal LePage.
Benchmark resale prices dropped 4.2 per cent from last July and were down more than 5 per cent from their peak in October, 2014. Detached home prices fell 3.4 per cent from last year to $502,300.
Among condos, a surge of new listings has left the market with more than six months’ worth of supply, pushing the benchmark price down 6.6 per cent from a year earlier to $277,000. Condo sales were down 21 per cent from a year earlier and were 53 per cent below peak levels in 2014.
You’re welcome. It has been hypothesized that real-estate is a source of strength for the dollar:
Toss in the rest of the country, which certainly attracts some foreign buying despite having generally much less exciting conditions than the Vancouver and Toronto markets, and “maybe total flows into Canadian real estate is $2-billion [a month], and maybe even slightly higher,” [Nomura Securities foreign-exchange strategist] Mr. [Charles] St-Arnaud said via e-mail.
To put it in perspective, net inflows of foreign investment in Canadian securities (stocks, bonds and the like), which certainly have a significant effect on the currency, have averaged about $15-billion a month this year. Inflows from the export of energy products – always a big deal for currency traders, who grossly oversimplify the Canadian dollar as a petro-currency and thus reflexively link its value closely with the price of oil – have been about $5-billion a month. The foreign inflows in the housing market might not be big enough to be driving the currency’s gains this year (up 12 per cent against the U.S. dollar since mid-January), but in a year when Canada’s overall exports have generally struggled (down 3.4 per cent year over year), they are big enough to be providing meaningful support.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.4110 % | 1,690.3 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.4110 % | 3,087.8 |
| Floater | 4.86 % | 4.58 % | 87,995 | 16.12 | 4 | 0.4110 % | 1,779.5 |
| OpRet | 4.85 % | 1.43 % | 51,275 | 0.08 | 1 | 0.0000 % | 2,845.9 |
| SplitShare | 5.09 % | 5.27 % | 98,745 | 4.54 | 5 | 0.2247 % | 3,379.6 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.2247 % | 2,636.9 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.43 % | -11.76 % | 78,799 | 0.09 | 12 | 0.1288 % | 2,709.5 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.14 % | 5.07 % | 107,856 | 14.84 | 26 | 0.3215 % | 2,882.6 |
| FixedReset | 4.95 % | 4.23 % | 150,115 | 7.04 | 89 | 0.5439 % | 2,055.9 |
| Deemed-Retractible | 4.99 % | 3.58 % | 119,070 | 0.09 | 32 | 0.1657 % | 2,796.6 |
| FloatingReset | 2.95 % | 4.44 % | 30,944 | 5.12 | 11 | 0.0000 % | 2,158.7 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| IFC.PR.A | FixedReset | -1.94 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 15.18 Bid-YTW : 9.82 % |
| NA.PR.Q | FixedReset | 1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.50 Bid-YTW : 3.65 % |
| BAM.PR.N | Perpetual-Discount | 1.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 22.12 Evaluated at bid price : 22.40 Bid-YTW : 5.35 % |
| BAM.PF.E | FixedReset | 1.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 19.46 Evaluated at bid price : 19.46 Bid-YTW : 4.48 % |
| HSE.PR.E | FixedReset | 1.05 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 20.16 Evaluated at bid price : 20.16 Bid-YTW : 5.38 % |
| BAM.PR.B | Floater | 1.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 10.41 Evaluated at bid price : 10.41 Bid-YTW : 4.58 % |
| CM.PR.O | FixedReset | 1.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 19.35 Evaluated at bid price : 19.35 Bid-YTW : 4.06 % |
| BMO.PR.M | FixedReset | 1.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.82 Bid-YTW : 3.64 % |
| BAM.PF.A | FixedReset | 1.12 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 19.78 Evaluated at bid price : 19.78 Bid-YTW : 4.68 % |
| BAM.PF.G | FixedReset | 1.17 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 20.83 Evaluated at bid price : 20.83 Bid-YTW : 4.49 % |
| NA.PR.S | FixedReset | 1.18 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 18.87 Evaluated at bid price : 18.87 Bid-YTW : 4.25 % |
| HSE.PR.G | FixedReset | 1.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 20.29 Evaluated at bid price : 20.29 Bid-YTW : 5.33 % |
| BAM.PF.B | FixedReset | 1.22 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 18.18 Evaluated at bid price : 18.18 Bid-YTW : 4.77 % |
| FTS.PR.G | FixedReset | 1.24 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 18.02 Evaluated at bid price : 18.02 Bid-YTW : 4.09 % |
| FTS.PR.K | FixedReset | 1.28 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 18.26 Evaluated at bid price : 18.26 Bid-YTW : 4.00 % |
| CM.PR.Q | FixedReset | 1.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 20.90 Evaluated at bid price : 20.90 Bid-YTW : 4.18 % |
| MFC.PR.J | FixedReset | 1.37 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.94 Bid-YTW : 6.68 % |
| TD.PF.E | FixedReset | 1.41 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 21.35 Evaluated at bid price : 21.65 Bid-YTW : 4.11 % |
| SLF.PR.G | FixedReset | 1.45 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.70 Bid-YTW : 9.38 % |
| BAM.PF.F | FixedReset | 1.49 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 20.45 Evaluated at bid price : 20.45 Bid-YTW : 4.55 % |
| TRP.PR.C | FixedReset | 1.51 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 12.79 Evaluated at bid price : 12.79 Bid-YTW : 4.34 % |
| VNR.PR.A | FixedReset | 1.59 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 17.88 Evaluated at bid price : 17.88 Bid-YTW : 4.96 % |
| HSE.PR.A | FixedReset | 1.61 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 12.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.00 Bid-YTW : 5.03 % |
| SLF.PR.I | FixedReset | 1.63 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.32 Bid-YTW : 7.15 % |
| TRP.PR.B | FixedReset | 1.70 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 11.99 Evaluated at bid price : 11.99 Bid-YTW : 4.16 % |
| IAG.PR.G | FixedReset | 1.83 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.00 Bid-YTW : 6.82 % |
| HSE.PR.C | FixedReset | 1.92 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 18.61 Evaluated at bid price : 18.61 Bid-YTW : 5.35 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| BIP.PR.C | FixedReset | 270,113 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-09-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.37 Bid-YTW : 5.06 % |
| FTS.PR.E | OpRet | 84,702 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Option Certainty Maturity Date : 2016-09-02 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.28 Bid-YTW : 1.43 % |
| NA.PR.W | FixedReset | 84,425 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-08-03 Maturity Price : 18.28 Evaluated at bid price : 18.28 Bid-YTW : 4.23 % |
| TD.PF.G | FixedReset | 64,432 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-04-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.99 Bid-YTW : 3.68 % |
| TRP.PR.J | FixedReset | 63,038 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-05-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.56 Bid-YTW : 4.31 % |
| RY.PR.R | FixedReset | 58,343 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-08-24 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.93 Bid-YTW : 3.77 % |
| There were 28 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| IFC.PR.A | FixedReset | Quote: 15.18 – 15.67 Spot Rate : 0.4900 Average : 0.2752 YTW SCENARIO |
| POW.PR.B | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 25.49 – 25.94 Spot Rate : 0.4500 Average : 0.2935 YTW SCENARIO |
| BMO.PR.Y | FixedReset | Quote: 20.87 – 21.29 Spot Rate : 0.4200 Average : 0.2826 YTW SCENARIO |
| NA.PR.W | FixedReset | Quote: 18.28 – 18.68 Spot Rate : 0.4000 Average : 0.2720 YTW SCENARIO |
| POW.PR.A | Perpetual-Premium | Quote: 25.64 – 25.99 Spot Rate : 0.3500 Average : 0.2253 YTW SCENARIO |
| BNS.PR.A | FloatingReset | Quote: 23.07 – 23.40 Spot Rate : 0.3300 Average : 0.2083 YTW SCENARIO |