June 15, 2017

What a difference a week makes!

Investors and economists are recalibrating rate forecasts after the central bank’s surprise talk of tightening this week signaled a policy move could come sooner rather than later.

A Bloomberg survey of 17 economists found the majority now project a rate increase this year. Six predict higher rates in October and two suggest a September hike. That’s an about face from a week ago, when only two forecasters were projecting rates would rise in 2017.

Traders are also pricing in a full 25 basis point increase to the central bank’s 0.5 percent benchmark interest rate by the December meeting, according to Bloomberg calculations on overnight index swaps.

Swaps trading on Thursday showed a 46 percent chance of an increase in July, and a 75 percent chance of one by December. A week ago the odds were 5 percent and 27 percent.

The Canada five-year bounced upwards today, closing at 1.14%.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2321 % 2,162.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2321 % 3,967.1
Floater 3.66 % 3.66 % 78,835 18.17 3 -0.2321 % 2,286.2
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0157 % 3,053.4
SplitShare 4.71 % 4.34 % 69,467 1.51 5 -0.0157 % 3,646.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0157 % 2,845.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.28 % 4.35 % 72,474 3.41 25 -0.0187 % 2,795.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.10 % 5.08 % 92,557 15.27 12 0.0000 % 3,005.5
FixedReset 4.42 % 3.96 % 201,657 6.56 96 0.5350 % 2,350.2
Deemed-Retractible 4.98 % 5.02 % 119,678 6.24 30 -0.0027 % 2,902.7
FloatingReset 2.47 % 2.92 % 55,183 4.37 10 0.3747 % 2,563.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
HSE.PR.E FixedReset 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-15
Maturity Price : 23.10
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.47
Bid-YTW : 8.50 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.34
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.51
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-15
Maturity Price : 15.94
Evaluated at bid price : 15.94
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-15
Maturity Price : 22.51
Evaluated at bid price : 22.95
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.15
Bid-YTW : 7.63 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-15
Maturity Price : 21.63
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 3.80 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-15
Maturity Price : 15.89
Evaluated at bid price : 15.89
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.80
Bid-YTW : 8.61 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.84
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.61
Bid-YTW : 6.30 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-15
Maturity Price : 22.81
Evaluated at bid price : 23.78
Bid-YTW : 4.06 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-15
Maturity Price : 16.51
Evaluated at bid price : 16.51
Bid-YTW : 3.85 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.86
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-15
Maturity Price : 14.78
Evaluated at bid price : 14.78
Bid-YTW : 3.78 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset 1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.37
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.84
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.37
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.R FixedReset 168,665 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.97
Bid-YTW : 3.57 %
RY.PR.Q FixedReset 123,008 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.97
Bid-YTW : 3.45 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 110,550 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-15
Maturity Price : 21.26
Evaluated at bid price : 21.54
Bid-YTW : 3.85 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset 109,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-15
Maturity Price : 22.70
Evaluated at bid price : 23.49
Bid-YTW : 3.95 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset 109,039 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-15
Maturity Price : 21.31
Evaluated at bid price : 21.61
Bid-YTW : 3.91 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 98,500 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-15
Maturity Price : 21.43
Evaluated at bid price : 21.43
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
There were 45 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 21.43 – 21.85
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.3351

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-15
Maturity Price : 21.43
Evaluated at bid price : 21.43
Bid-YTW : 3.95 %

BAM.PF.H FixedReset Quote: 26.13 – 26.40
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1904

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.13
Bid-YTW : 3.59 %

RY.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 22.88 – 23.10
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1438

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-15
Maturity Price : 22.32
Evaluated at bid price : 22.88
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %

IAG.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 22.42 – 22.67
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1749

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.42
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %

BMO.PR.Q FixedReset Quote: 21.37 – 21.67
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2285

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.37
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %

NA.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 26.75 – 26.92
Spot Rate : 0.1700
Average : 0.1102

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-08-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.75
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %

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