July 26, 2017

Some timely commentary from Pew Research:

Manufacturing jobs in the United States have declined considerably over the past several decades, even as manufacturing output – the value of goods and products manufactured in the U.S. – has grown strongly. But while most Americans are aware of the decline in employment, relatively few know about the increase in output, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.

Four of every five Americans (81%) know that the total number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. has decreased over the past three decades, according to the survey of 4,135 adults from Pew Research Center’s nationally representative American Trends Panel. But just 35% know that the nation’s manufacturing output has risen over the same time span, versus 47% who say output has decreased and 17% who say it’s stayed about the same. Only 26% of those surveyed got both questions right.

ft_17_07_18_manufacturing_decline
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But the news of the day was the FOMC statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to expand. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

For the time being, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated; this program is described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell.

No dissent! And in the States that means something – not like in Canada, where the very idea of two people disagreeing is considered to be too embarrassing for words.

There was an immediate reaction on the FX markets:

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to the lowest in more than a year, while the 10-year Treasury yield slipped back below 2.3 percent after the Fed held rates steady and indicated it would start unwinding its balance sheet “relatively soon.”

fx_170726
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… but Treasuries regained most of the ground lost yesterday:

  • •The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell five basis points to 2.29 percent.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.28%, equivalent to 6.86% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield a little under 3.95%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 295bp, a significant narrowing from the 305bp reported July 19.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4619 % 2,409.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4619 % 4,420.4
Floater 3.59 % 3.62 % 128,200 18.25 3 -0.4619 % 2,547.5
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2272 % 3,069.3
SplitShare 4.69 % 4.28 % 51,929 1.40 5 0.2272 % 3,665.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2272 % 2,859.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.39 % 4.71 % 64,755 6.10 21 0.0718 % 2,775.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.29 % 5.28 % 80,525 14.97 15 0.2639 % 2,923.0
FixedReset 4.32 % 4.32 % 183,535 6.37 98 0.0756 % 2,411.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.06 % 5.34 % 119,627 6.13 30 0.3193 % 2,864.7
FloatingReset 2.53 % 2.77 % 43,767 4.27 10 0.2881 % 2,643.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PVS.PR.E SplitShare 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-08-25
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.45
Bid-YTW : -6.92 %
TD.PR.T FloatingReset 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.52
Bid-YTW : 2.57 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 22.27
Evaluated at bid price : 22.55
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 22.85
Evaluated at bid price : 23.15
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.92
Bid-YTW : 6.70 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 21.46
Evaluated at bid price : 21.72
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.28
Bid-YTW : 6.64 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.R FixedReset 1,228,464 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 192,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 22.35
Evaluated at bid price : 22.69
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
TD.PF.I FixedReset 151,905 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 23.17
Evaluated at bid price : 25.07
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
TRP.PR.K FixedReset 134,207 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.04
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 127,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 22.91
Evaluated at bid price : 23.86
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 122,429 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 21.72
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset 101,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.42
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
There were 26 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 21.81 – 22.27
Spot Rate : 0.4600
Average : 0.3055

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.81
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %

EIT.PR.A SplitShare Quote: 25.76 – 26.20
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3104

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2024-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.76
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 22.55 – 22.88
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2393

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 22.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.55
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %

TRP.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 24.70 – 25.00
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2130

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-11-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %

SLF.PR.J FloatingReset Quote: 17.12 – 17.40
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1979

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.12
Bid-YTW : 7.67 %

BAM.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 20.70 – 20.98
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.2035

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 20.70
Evaluated at bid price : 20.70
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %

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