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DBRS has announced that it:

changed the trends on Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (Fairfax or the Company) and its related entities to Positive from Stable. DBRS Morningstar also confirmed all ratings, including Fairfax’s Issuer Rating, at BBB (high), with Northbridge General Insurance Corporation’s (Northbridge) and Federated Insurance Company of Canada’s Financial Strength Ratings at “A”.

KEY RATING CONSIDERATIONS
The change in the trends to Positive from Stable recognizes Fairfax’s resilient, diversified and growing franchise; consistent underwriting profitability; strong liquidity position; and sound regulatory capital. The Company is a major international property and casualty (P&C) insurance and reinsurance player with a significant presence in key global markets through its geographically diversified insurance and reinsurance operating subsidiaries. Fairfax maintains ample liquid assets at both the holding and operating companies, as well as access to committed lines of credit. Fairfax’s earnings are subject to volatility as a result of exposure to natural catastrophe losses and the impact of financial market fluctuations on unrealized investment gains and losses. The Company’s subsidiaries maintain appropriate regulatory capital ratios with buffers above required solvency levels, allowing Fairfax to handle adverse events. The ratings also consider Fairfax’s improved risk profile, driven by the Company’s recent shift towards investing in highly rated and liquid fixed-income securities while reducing holdings of noninvestment-grade bonds. AAA-rated bonds now account for the majority of Fairfax’s bond portfolio.

RATING DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar would upgrade the ratings on Fairfax and its subsidiaries, if the Company maintains its improved risk profile and overall profitability while reducing its financial leverage ratio.

Given the Positive trend, a downgrade in the near future is unlikely. However, the trend would revert to Stable if there is deterioration in the risk profile and overall profitability, or sustained elevated financial leverage.

RATING RATIONALE
DBRS Morningstar views the Company’s franchise strength as Strong/Good, reflecting the size and diversity of its core operations. Fairfax has developed an extensive portfolio of global insurance and reinsurance subsidiaries over time, which the Company continues to expand through organic growth and prudent strategic acquisitions. Management of Fairfax’s insurance and reinsurance operating subsidiaries is decentralized, with each organization having its own autonomous management team. The breakdown of premiums written by line of business has remained consistent over the past five years, with casualty insurance accounting for just more than half of the gross premiums written. The Company ranks among the top five providers of commercial P&C insurance in Canada based on 2021 direct premiums written. Fairfax’s largest U.S.-based subsidiary, Odyssey Group, ranks among the 25 largest global P&C reinsurers. The Company’s U.K. subsidiary, Brit Limited (Brit), is the second largest Lloyd’s of London syndicate and a market leader in specialty insurance and reinsurance. Fairfax can compete with larger global players using various platforms in selected markets where it can achieve underwriting profitability. The Company’s gross written gross premiums have increased progressively over the past five years to $23.8 billion reported for year-end 2021.

Fairfax’s Good risk profile is supported by the Company’s strong underwriting and risk-limit controls, effective claims management, and appropriate reinsurance coverage for aggregate claim events or large losses. Moreover, Fairfax has appropriate internal controls and has been able to operate successfully in multiple jurisdictions. There has been a significant increase in the proportion of AAA rated bonds and a decline in the proportion of bonds rated BBB and below in the bond portfolio, resulting in a material improvement in the credit risk profile of the Company’s fixed-income investment portfolio.

DBRS Morningstar assesses Fairfax’s earnings ability as Good. The Company is characterized by disciplined underwriting, supported by a long-term value investing approach that sometimes may introduce earnings volatility. The Company has a history of acquiring well-managed insurance companies, ensuring that it retains management to continue running these businesses. The results for the first nine months of 2022 (9M 2022) were negatively affected by market volatility, caused in part by the rapid increase in interest rates globally. As a result, Fairfax reported a consolidated net loss of $816 million as of 9M 2022. Nonetheless, Fairfax expects to report a small profit for full year due to realized gains ($1.3 billion on a pre-tax basis) upon the sale of the Company’s pet insurance business, which will be reflected in Q4 2022 earnings. The hardening reinsurance market is expected to contribute positively to Fairfax earnings in the short to medium term.

DBRS Morningstar assesses Fairfax’s liquidity profile as Strong/Good. Fairfax maintains a strong financial position at the holding company level, with approximately a $873.5 million total for cash and liquid investments as at Q3 2022. DBRS Morningstar considers this level of cash and investments as providing an important liquidity cushion for any potential uptick in insurance claims from the subsidiaries or potential catastrophe losses. The Company redeployed a significant amount of cash in 2022 to invest in AAA-rated U.S. Treasuries and Government of Canada bonds. This is expected to help increase earnings through interest income going forward while maintaining the Company’s resilient liquidity position. Fairfax maintains a committed credit facility of $2 billion that is available to support liquidity needs. The credit facility was largely undrawn as at September 30, 2022.

DBRS Morningstar assesses the capitalization of Fairfax as Good/Moderate. The Company’s insurance and reinsurance operating subsidiaries are appropriately capitalized. Fairfax’s fixed-charge coverage ratios have been volatile over time because of the impact of International Financial Reporting Standards’ accounting treatment of unrealized capital gains and losses within the investment portfolio. However, it improved significantly in 2021 because of the Company’s strong earnings. The Company’s financial leverage ratio (calculated by DBRS Morningstar on a consolidated basis as debt plus preferred shares to capital) increased to 35.7% at Q3 2022, in part due to the issuance of $750 million of senior debt in August 2022 and a decline in common equity. Any substantial further increase in leverage would change the Positive trend to Stable.

The rating of Pfd-3(high) was unaffected.

Affected issues are FFH.PR.C, FFH.PR.D, FFH.PR.E, FFH.PR.F, FFH.PR.GM, FFH.PR.H, FFH.PR.I, FFH.PR.J, FFH.PR.K and FFH.PR.M.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 6th, 2022 at 9:38 pm and is filed under Issue Comments. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.