PrefBlog

No surprises from the Fed:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.

But there was much excitement about projections:

Fed officials also released a fresh set of economic projections Wednesday. They show that central bank officials now expect fewer rate cuts in the coming years than they estimated in December. A majority of Fed policymakers continue to expect three rate cuts this year, but they now see fewer in 2025 and 2026. They expect interest rates in the longer run to be slightly higher than they projected in December.

Which, claim some pundits, was considered to be good news:

Stocks added to gains after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference that despite recent inflation data coming in hotter than expected, the numbers “haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually, on a somewhat bumpy road.”

Strategists said Wall Street was reassured by Powell’s comments on inflation and the labor market and his signal that the Fed will slow the pace of its drawdown of bond holdings.
…
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 401.37 points, or 1.03%, to 39,512.13, the S&P 500 gained 46.11 points, or 0.89%, to 5,224.62 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 202.62 points, or 1.25%, to 16,369.41.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended up 185.13 points, or 0.9%, at 22,045.71, stopping just short of the record closing high it posted in March 2022 at 22,087.22.

The Fed’s dotplot suggests that many of those who have expectations of the GOC-5 being below 2% in the immediate future are going to be disappointed.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 6.66%, equivalent to 8.66% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates yielded 5.12% on 2024-3-15 and since then the closing price of ZLC has changed from 14.95 to 14.99, an increase of 27bp in price, implying a decline of yields of 2bp (BMO reports a duration of 12.38, but don’t disclose whether this is Macaulay or Modified; I will assume Modified) to 5.10%. Therefore, the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has narrowed to 355bp from the 365bp reported March 13.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 20th, 2024 at 8:21 pm and is filed under Market Action. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.