Category: Canada Prime

The Bank of Canada has announced it has:

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks.

While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027.

In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened. Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar.

Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover.

Canada’s labour market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses. Job losses continue to build in trade-sensitive sectors and hiring has been weak across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September and wage growth has slowed. Slower population growth means fewer new jobs are needed to keep the employment rate steady.

The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. On a quarterly basis, growth strengthens in 2026 after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be taken up gradually.

CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI components suggests underlying inflation remains around 2½%. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon.

With ongoing weakness in the economy and inflation expected to remain close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast.

The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition. The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Mark Rendell in the Globe comments:

Governor Tiff Macklem said in a news conference after the rate announcement that the policy rate was now “at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2 per cent while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment.” Although he added that the bank could come off the sidelines if there is a “material” change in the outlook.

This seems to mark the end of an easing cycle that began in the summer of 2024 and that saw the bank lower borrowing costs nine times.

It also highlights what Mr. Macklem and his colleagues believe are the limits of monetary policy in dealing with an unprecedented trade shock that is changing the very structure of the Canadian economy.
…
“Monetary policy… can’t target the hard-hit sectors: aluminum, steel and autos. It can’t help companies find new markets. It can’t help companies reconfigure their supply chains,” Mr. Macklem said.

“What it can do is it can try to mitigate the spillovers from the hard-hit sectors to the rest of the economy. And it can try and help the economy adjust to this structural change. But its role is limited, because this is more than a cyclical downturn, it’s a structural change. There are added costs. That limits how much we can boost demand and keep inflation well controlled.”

Prime followed:

• TD : Down 0.25% to 4.45%
• CIBC: Down 0.25% to 4.45%
• BNS: Down 0.25% to 4.45%
• RBC: Down 0.25% to 4.45%
• BMO:Down 0.25% to 4.45%

Well, Rob Carrick and Ryan Siever will be mad – nothing on the way up and precious few hopes for the way down:

There’s a case to be made for banks giving borrowers a break when what is expected to be the biggest interest rate hike in 22 years is announced on Wednesday.

A brief flashback to 2015 is required to get the sense of this story. The economy back then was in the opposite shape of what it is now – weak enough to prompt the Bank of Canada to cut its trendsetting overnight rate by 0.25 of a percentage point in January and again in July.

The big banks hijacked part of that rate cut. While the overnight rate fell by a total 0.5 of a point, the banks cut their prime rate by cumulative 0.3 of a point. They held back the rest of the rate cut to build their revenues and profit.

There was a delay in reducing the prime when the Canada Overnight rate dropped 25bp to 0.75% in January 2015 and again when Canada Overnight dropped a further 25bp to 0.50% in July of that year.

The Bank of Canada has announced it has:

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%.

After remaining resilient to sharply higher US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, global economic growth is showing signs of slowing. In the United States, business investment has been strong but consumers are cautious and employment gains have slowed. US inflation has picked up in recent months as businesses appear to be passing on some tariff costs to consumer prices. Growth in the euro area has moderated as US tariffs affect trade. China’s economy held up in the first half of the year but growth appears to be softening as investment weakens. Global oil prices are close to their levels assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have eased further, with higher equity prices and lower bond yields. Canada’s exchange rate has been stable relative to the US dollar.

Canada’s GDP declined by about 1½% in the second quarter, as expected, with tariffs and trade uncertainty weighing heavily on economic activity. Exports fell by 27% in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from first-quarter gains when companies were rushing orders to get ahead of tariffs. Business investment also declined in the second quarter. Consumption and housing activity both grew at a healthy pace. In the months ahead, slow population growth and the weakness in the labour market will likely weigh on household spending.

Employment has declined in the past two months since the Bank’s July MPR was published. Job losses have largely been concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, while employment growth in the rest of the economy has slowed, reflecting weak hiring intentions. The unemployment rate has moved up since March, hitting 7.1% in August, and wage growth has continued to ease.

CPI inflation was 1.9% in August, the same as at the time of the July MPR. Excluding taxes, inflation was 2.4%. Preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3% in recent months, but on a monthly basis the upward momentum seen earlier this year has dissipated. A broader range of indicators, including alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes across CPI components, continue to suggest underlying inflation is running around 2½%. The federal government’s recent decision to remove most retaliatory tariffs on imported goods from the US will mean less upward pressure on the prices of these goods going forward.

With a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation, Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks. Looking ahead, the disruptive effects of shifts in trade will continue to add costs even as they weigh on economic activity. Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties. Governing Council will be assessing how exports evolve in the face of US tariffs and changing trade relationships; how much this spills over into business investment, employment, and household spending; how the cost effects of trade disruptions and reconfigured supply chains are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve.

The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled.

Mark Rendell in the Globe comments:

The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by a quarter-point to 2.5 per cent but refrained from providing guidance about additional rate cuts. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said only that the bank would proceed “carefully” and “look over a shorter horizon than usual.”
…
Business investment is likewise weak. And while consumer spending has held up fairly well, Mr. Macklem warned that slow population growth and rising unemployment will likely weigh on household spending in the coming months.

The BoC’s reluctance to lower interest rates through much of 2025 was based on concerns about sticky core inflation measures, which have remained stubbornly above the bank’s 2-per-cent target. It was also nervous that tariffs and supply-chain disruptions would add to inflation even as they hurt economic activity.

These worries appear to be fading. Although core inflation measures remain around 3 per cent, underlying inflation is running closer to 2.5 per cent, Mr. Macklem said, and “the upward pressures on underlying inflation have diminished.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision in August to drop retaliatory tariffs on more than $40-billion worth of U.S. goods – products that comply with continental free-trade agreement rules of origin – also means there will be less upward pressure on imported goods prices, Mr. Macklem said.

…while Darcy Keith reports:

Money market traders grew a little more doubtful that October will bring another rate cut as the Bank of Canada news conference wore on and Governor Tiff Macklem made it clear the bank would not provide much forward guidance this time around on the trajectory of future rate moves.

Implied probabilities in overnight index swap markets now suggest a 40-per-cent probability of a rate cut at the bank’s next meeting, on Oct. 29, down from about 50 per cent when the rate decision was announced earlier today, according to LSEG data. There’s now about a 62-per-cent probability priced into markets of another rate cut coming before 2025 draws to a close.

So if Mr. Macklem is trying to temper further easing expectations, he’s finding some success.

Prime followed:

• TD : Down 0.25% to 4.70%
• CIBC: Down 0.25% to 4.70%
• BNS: Down 0.25% to 4.70%
• RBC: Down 0.25% to 4.70%
• BMO:Down 0.25% to 4.70%

Well, Rob Carrick and Ryan Siever will be mad – nothing on the way up and precious few hopes for the way down:

There’s a case to be made for banks giving borrowers a break when what is expected to be the biggest interest rate hike in 22 years is announced on Wednesday.

A brief flashback to 2015 is required to get the sense of this story. The economy back then was in the opposite shape of what it is now – weak enough to prompt the Bank of Canada to cut its trendsetting overnight rate by 0.25 of a percentage point in January and again in July.

The big banks hijacked part of that rate cut. While the overnight rate fell by a total 0.5 of a point, the banks cut their prime rate by cumulative 0.3 of a point. They held back the rest of the rate cut to build their revenues and profit.

There was a delay in reducing the prime when the Canada Overnight rate dropped 25bp to 0.75% in January 2015 and again when Canada Overnight dropped a further 25bp to 0.50% in July of that year.

The Bank of Canada has announced it has:

reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¼%, with the Bank Rate at 3¾% and the deposit rate at 3¼%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

The global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy continues to show broad-based strength, with robust consumption and a solid labour market. US inflation has been holding steady, with some price pressures persisting. In the euro area, recent indicators point to weaker growth. In China, recent policy actions combined with strong exports are supporting growth, but household spending remains subdued. Global financial conditions have eased and the Canadian dollar has depreciated in the face of broad-based strength in the US dollar.

In Canada, the economy grew by 1% in the third quarter, somewhat below the Bank’s October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected. Third-quarter GDP growth was pulled down by business investment, inventories and exports. In contrast, consumer spending and housing activity both picked up, suggesting lower interest rates are beginning to boost household spending. Historical revisions to the National Accounts have increased the level of GDP over the past three years, largely reflecting higher investment and consumption. The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force. Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity.

A number of policy measures have been announced that will affect the outlook for near-term growth and inflation in Canada. Reductions in targeted immigration levels suggest GDP growth next year will be below the Bank’s October forecast. The effects on inflation will likely be more muted, given that lower immigration dampens both demand and supply. Other federal and provincial policies—including a temporary suspension of the GST on some consumer products, one-time payments to individuals, and changes to mortgage rules—will affect the dynamics of demand and inflation. The Bank will look through effects that are temporary and focus on underlying trends to guide its policy decisions.

In addition, the possibility the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook.

CPI inflation has been about 2% since the summer, and is expected to average close to the 2% target over the next couple of years. Since October, the upward pressure on inflation from shelter and the downward pressure from goods prices have both moderated as expected. Looking ahead, the GST holiday will temporarily lower inflation but that will be unwound once the GST break ends. Measures of core inflation will help us assess the trend in CPI inflation.

With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 50 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range. Governing Council has reduced the policy rate substantially since June. Going forward, we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time. Our decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of the implications for the inflation outlook. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.

Mark Rendell in the Globe comments:

Mr. Macklem justified the oversized move by pointing to tepid economic growth and a weakening labour market in recent months. Canada’s gross domestic product growth undershot the bank’s forecast in the third quarter and the unemployment rate jumped to 6.8 per cent in November from 6.5 per cent the month before.

“Monetary policy no longer needs to be in restrictive territory. We want to see growth pick up to absorb the unused capacity in the economy to keep inflation close to 2 per cent,” Mr. Macklem said.

He highlighted a number of risks on the horizon. Chief among these is a slowdown in population growth following Ottawa’s new immigration targets, “which suggest GDP growth next year will be lower than we forecast in October,” Mr. Macklem said.

He also pointed to the potential of U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, which he called “a major new uncertainty.” President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 25-per-cent tariff on all Canadian imports unless Ottawa does more to address border security concerns, and he campaigned on a across-the-board tariff of 10 per cent to 20 per cent on all imports.

“The economic outlook is clouded by the possibility of new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States. No one knows how this will play out in the months ahead – whether tariffs will be imposed, whether exemptions get agreed, or whether retaliatory measures will be put in place,” Mr. Macklem said.

…while Darcy Keith reports:

Implied interest rate probabilities in overnight swaps markets suggest a 67 per cent chance of a 25 basis point cut at the next policy meeting on Jan. 29, and 33 per cent odds that there will be no change at all to the bank’s overnight rate, according to the latest LSEG data after today’s BoC decision.

Post-announcement

The indicated December, 2025, rate of 2.65% may be compared with the 2024-12-6 forecast of 2.61%.

Prime followed:

• TD : Down 0.50% to 5.45%
• CIBC: Down 0.50% to 5.45%
• BNS: Down 0.50% to 5.45%
• RBC: Down 0.50% to 5.45%
• BMO:Down 0.50% to 5.45%

Well, Rob Carrick and Ryan Siever will be mad – nothing on the way up and precious few hopes for the way down:

There’s a case to be made for banks giving borrowers a break when what is expected to be the biggest interest rate hike in 22 years is announced on Wednesday.

A brief flashback to 2015 is required to get the sense of this story. The economy back then was in the opposite shape of what it is now – weak enough to prompt the Bank of Canada to cut its trendsetting overnight rate by 0.25 of a percentage point in January and again in July.

The big banks hijacked part of that rate cut. While the overnight rate fell by a total 0.5 of a point, the banks cut their prime rate by cumulative 0.3 of a point. They held back the rest of the rate cut to build their revenues and profit.

There was a delay in reducing the prime when the Canada Overnight rate dropped 25bp to 0.75% in January 2015 and again when Canada Overnight dropped a further 25bp to 0.50% in July of that year.

The Bank of Canada has announced it has:

reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¾%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 3¾%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

The Bank continues to expect the global economy to expand at a rate of about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States is now expected to be stronger than previously forecast while the outlook for China remains subdued. Growth in the euro area has been soft but should recover modestly next year. Inflation in advanced economies has declined in recent months, and is now around central bank targets. Global financial conditions have eased since July, in part because of market expectations of lower policy interest rates. Global oil prices are about $10 lower than assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

In Canada, the economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and we expect growth of 1¾% in the second half. Consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis. Exports have been boosted by the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline. The labour market remains soft—the unemployment rate was at 6.5% in September. Population growth has continued to expand the labour force while hiring has been modest. This has particularly affected young people and newcomers to Canada. Wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply.

GDP growth is forecast to strengthen gradually over the projection horizon, supported by lower interest rates. This forecast largely reflects the net effect of a gradual pick up in consumer spending per person and slower population growth. Residential investment growth is also projected to rise as strong demand for housing lifts sales and spending on renovations. Business investment is expected to strengthen as demand picks up, and exports should remain strong, supported by robust demand from the United States.

Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026. As the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.

CPI inflation has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September. Inflation in shelter costs remains elevated but has begun to ease. Excess supply elsewhere in the economy has reduced inflation in the prices of many goods and services. The drop in global oil prices has led to lower gasoline prices. These factors have all combined to bring inflation down. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2½%. With inflationary pressures no longer broad-based, business and consumer inflation expectations have largely normalized.

The Bank expects inflation to remain close to the target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out. The upward pressure from shelter and other services gradually diminishes, and the downward pressure on inflation recedes as excess supply in the economy is absorbed.

With inflation now back around the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range. If the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further. However, the timing and pace of further reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook. We will take decisions one meeting at a time. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.

Mark Rendell in the Globe comments:

The larger-than-usual rate cut follows a string of data showing that both inflation and economic growth in Canada are running below what the bank expected. With price pressures essentially under control, central bankers are now trying to get borrowing costs back to a neutral level that doesn’t restrain growth to avoid a recession and a further rise in unemployment.

The bank’s forecast, published Wednesday, sees economic activity picking up toward the end of the year and into next year, with falling interest rates expected to spur business investment and consumer spending on interest-sensitive goods such as cars and houses.

An increase in per-person spending will be partly offset by slowing population growth, following the new federal caps on temporary immigration, the bank said.

Financial market reaction to the announcement was muted as investors were widely anticipating a half-point cut. The yield on two-year Government of Canada bonds fell a few basis points on the news, but ended the day up slightly. The Canadian dollar weakened a tad against the U.S. currency.

…while Darcy Keith reports:

Here’s how implied probabilities of future interest rate moves stood in swaps markets following today’s decision, according to LSEG data. The overnight rate now resides at 3.75 per cent. While the bank moves in quarter point increments, credit market implied rates fluctuate more fluidly and are constantly changing. Columns to the right are percentage probabilities of future rate moves.

Post-announcement

Prime followed:

• TD : Down 0.50% to 5.95%
• CIBC: Down 0.50% to 5.95%
• BNS: Down 0.50% to 5.95%
• RBC: Down 0.50% to 5.95%
• BMO:Down 0.50% to 5.95%

Well, Rob Carrick and Ryan Siever will be mad – nothing on the way up and precious few hopes for the way down:

There’s a case to be made for banks giving borrowers a break when what is expected to be the biggest interest rate hike in 22 years is announced on Wednesday.

A brief flashback to 2015 is required to get the sense of this story. The economy back then was in the opposite shape of what it is now – weak enough to prompt the Bank of Canada to cut its trendsetting overnight rate by 0.25 of a percentage point in January and again in July.

The big banks hijacked part of that rate cut. While the overnight rate fell by a total 0.5 of a point, the banks cut their prime rate by cumulative 0.3 of a point. They held back the rest of the rate cut to build their revenues and profit.

There was a delay in reducing the prime when the Canada Overnight rate dropped 25bp to 0.75% in January 2015 and again when Canada Overnight dropped a further 25bp to 0.50% in July of that year.

The Bank of Canada has announced it has:

reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4¼%, with the Bank Rate at 4½% and the deposit rate at 4¼%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

The global economy expanded by about 2½% in the second quarter, consistent with projections in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, economic growth was stronger than expected, led by consumption, but the labour market has slowed. Euro-area growth has been boosted by tourism and other services, while manufacturing has been soft. Inflation in both regions continues to moderate. In China, weak domestic demand weighed on economic growth. Global financial conditions have eased further since July, with declines in bond yields. The Canadian dollar has appreciated modestly, largely reflecting a lower US dollar. Oil prices are lower than assumed in the July MPR.

In Canada, the economy grew by 2.1% in the second quarter, led by government spending and business investment. This was slightly stronger than forecast in July, but preliminary indicators suggest that economic activity was soft through June and July. The labour market continues to slow, with little change in employment in recent months. Wage growth, however, remains elevated relative to productivity.

As expected, inflation slowed further to 2.5% in July. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation averaged around 2 ½% and the share of components of the consumer price index growing above 3% is roughly at its historical norm. High shelter price inflation is still the biggest contributor to total inflation but is starting to slow. Inflation also remains elevated in some other services.

With continued easing in broad inflationary pressures, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy interest rate by a further 25 basis points. Excess supply in the economy continues to put downward pressure on inflation, while price increases in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up. Governing Council is carefully assessing these opposing forces on inflation. Monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Darcy Keith in the Globe reports:

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% as expected, while expressing concern that weaker-than-anticipated growth might mean inflation falls too quickly.

Still, some economists said the tone of the bank’s statement was not quite as dovish as it could have been given recent weakness in the economy. And that sentiment is making money markets reluctant to price in rate cuts of more than 25 basis points at any future policy meeting.

The 25 basis point cut on Wednesday itself was well telegraphed ahead of time, and the market reaction reflected that. The Canadian dollar barely budged and Canada’s two-year bond yield was down about 3 basis points – about where it started the North American trading day and in line with the move in the equivalent U.S. Treasury.
…
Here’s how implied probabilities of future interest rate moves stand in swaps markets, according to data from LSEG as of 1013 am ET. The overnight rate now resides at 4.25%. While the bank moves in quarter point increments, credit market implied rates fluctuate more fluidly and are constantly changing. Columns to the right are percentage probabilities of future rate moves.

Pre-announcement

Post-announcement

Prime followed:

• TD : Down 0.25% to 6.45%
• CIBC: Down 0.25% to 6.45%
• BNS: Down 0.25% to 6.45%
• RBC: Down 0.25% to 6.45%
• BMO:Down 0.25% to 6.45%

Well, Rob Carrick and Ryan Siever will be mad – nothing on the way up and precious few hopes for the way down:

There’s a case to be made for banks giving borrowers a break when what is expected to be the biggest interest rate hike in 22 years is announced on Wednesday.

A brief flashback to 2015 is required to get the sense of this story. The economy back then was in the opposite shape of what it is now – weak enough to prompt the Bank of Canada to cut its trendsetting overnight rate by 0.25 of a percentage point in January and again in July.

The big banks hijacked part of that rate cut. While the overnight rate fell by a total 0.5 of a point, the banks cut their prime rate by cumulative 0.3 of a point. They held back the rest of the rate cut to build their revenues and profit.

There was a delay in reducing the prime when the Canada Overnight rate dropped 25bp to 0.75% in January 2015 and again when Canada Overnight dropped a further 25bp to 0.50% in July of that year.

The Bank of Canada has announced it has:

reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

The global economy is expected to continue expanding at an annual rate of about 3% through 2026. While inflation is still above central bank targets in most advanced economies, it is forecast to ease gradually. In the United States, the anticipated economic slowdown is materializing, with consumption growth moderating. US inflation looks to have resumed its downward path. In the euro area, growth is picking up following a weak 2023. China’s economy is growing modestly, with weak domestic demand partially offset by strong exports. Global financial conditions have eased, with lower bond yields, buoyant equity prices, and robust corporate debt issuance. The Canadian dollar has been relatively stable and oil prices are around the levels assumed in April’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

In Canada, economic growth likely picked up to about 1½% through the first half of this year. However, with robust population growth of about 3%, the economy’s potential output is still growing faster than GDP, which means excess supply has increased. Household spending, including both consumer purchases and housing, has been weak. There are signs of slack in the labour market. The unemployment rate has risen to 6.4%, with employment continuing to grow more slowly than the labour force and job seekers taking longer to find work. Wage growth is showing some signs of moderating, but remains elevated.

GDP growth is forecast to increase in the second half of 2024 and through 2025. This reflects stronger exports and a recovery in household spending and business investment as borrowing costs ease. Residential investment is expected to grow robustly. With new government limits on admissions of non-permanent residents, population growth should slow in 2025.

Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.4% in 2026. The strengthening economy will gradually absorb excess supply through 2025 and into 2026.

CPI inflation moderated to 2.7% in June after increasing in May. Broad inflationary pressures are easing. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been below 3% for several months and the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI is now near its historical norm. Shelter price inflation remains high, driven by rent and mortgage interest costs, and is still the biggest contributor to total inflation. Inflation is also elevated in services that are closely affected by wages, such as restaurants and personal care.

The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are expected to slow to about 2½% in the second half of 2024 and ease gradually through 2025. The Bank expects CPI inflation to come down below core inflation in the second half of this year, largely because of base year effects on gasoline prices. As those effects wear off, CPI inflation may edge up again before settling around the 2% target next year.

With broad price pressures continuing to ease and inflation expected to move closer to 2%, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy interest rate by a further 25 basis points. Ongoing excess supply is lowering inflationary pressures. At the same time, price pressures in some important parts of the economy—notably shelter and some other services—are holding inflation up. Governing Council is carefully assessing these opposing forces on inflation. Monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Mark Rendell in the Globe reports:

Interest rate swap markets, which capture private-sector expectations about monetary policy, now put the odds of another rate cut in September at slightly above 50 per cent, according to LSEG Data & Analytics – several ticks higher than before the announcement. Financial markets expect two more cuts before the end of the year, which would bring the policy rate to 4 per cent.
…
Pockets of inflationary pressure remain. Rent continues to rise quickly and homeowners are experiencing huge jumps in monthly interest payments when they renew their mortgages – a direct result of past rate hikes by the central bank. Likewise, prices are rising quickly for some services that are highly sensitive to labour costs.

But the bank is “increasingly confident that the ingredients to bring inflation back to target are in place,” Mr. Macklem said, while acknowledging that “there could be setbacks along the way.”

The bank’s new forecast in its quarterly Monetary Policy Report sees inflation falling below 2.5 per cent in the second half of the year and settling “sustainably” at 2 per cent next year.

The report also projects economic growth will pick up over the second half of the year and into next year, led by an increase in oil exports through the Trans Mountain Pipeline, a rise in business investment and stronger consumer spending as debt-servicing costs ease. But there are downside risks, especially if the wave of mortgage renewals expected over the next two years bites harder than expected. The bank expects annual GDP growth to total 1.2 per cent this year, before rising to 2.1 per cent in 2025 and 2.4 per cent in 2026.
…
Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said in the press conference that Canada’s housing affordability problems won’t be solved by interest rate cuts alone. Housing has been expensive in both low- and high-interest rate environments, and the root cause is a “structural imbalance” between the supply and demand for homes, she said.

“The bottom line on housing is we are going to lower interest rates if the economy continues to go in the direction that we expect. That will have some effect, that will help on housing,” she said.

“But it isn’t the magic solution. It would be a mistake to pin all of our hopes on our housing imbalance on interest rates. Canadians need a more fulsome, more co-ordinated policy response than that.”

Prime followed:

• TD : Down 0.25% to 6.70%
• CIBC: Down 0.25% to 6.70%
• BNS: Down 0.25% to 6.70%
• RBC: Down 0.25% to 6.70%
• BMO:Down 0.25% to 6.70%

Well, Rob Carrick and Ryan Siever will be mad – nothing on the way up and precious few hopes for the way down:

There’s a case to be made for banks giving borrowers a break when what is expected to be the biggest interest rate hike in 22 years is announced on Wednesday.

A brief flashback to 2015 is required to get the sense of this story. The economy back then was in the opposite shape of what it is now – weak enough to prompt the Bank of Canada to cut its trendsetting overnight rate by 0.25 of a percentage point in January and again in July.

The big banks hijacked part of that rate cut. While the overnight rate fell by a total 0.5 of a point, the banks cut their prime rate by cumulative 0.3 of a point. They held back the rest of the rate cut to build their revenues and profit.

There was a delay in reducing the prime when the Canada Overnight rate dropped 25bp to 0.75% in January 2015 and again when Canada Overnight dropped a further 25bp to 0.50% in July of that year.

The Bank of Canada has announced it has:

reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4¾%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 4¾%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

The global economy grew by about 3% in the first quarter of 2024, broadly in line with the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projection. In the United States, the economy expanded more slowly than was expected, as weakness in exports and inventories weighed on activity. Growth in private domestic demand remained strong but eased. In the euro area, activity picked up in the first quarter of 2024. China’s economy was also stronger in the first quarter, buoyed by exports and industrial production, although domestic demand remained weak. Inflation in most advanced economies continues to ease, although progress towards price stability is bumpy and is proceeding at different speeds across regions. Oil prices have averaged close to the MPR assumptions, and financial conditions are little changed since April.

In Canada, economic growth resumed in the first quarter of 2024 after stalling in the second half of last year. At 1.7%, first-quarter GDP growth was slower than forecast in the MPR. Weaker inventory investment dampened activity. Consumption growth was solid at about 3%, and business investment and housing activity also increased. Labour market data show businesses continue to hire, although employment has been growing at a slower pace than the working-age population. Wage pressures remain but look to be moderating gradually. Overall, recent data suggest the economy is still operating in excess supply.

CPI inflation eased further in April, to 2.7%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation also slowed and three-month measures suggest continued downward momentum. Indicators of the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI have moved down further and are near their historical average. However, shelter price inflation remains high.

With continued evidence that underlying inflation is easing, Governing Council agreed that monetary policy no longer needs to be as restrictive and reduced the policy interest rate by 25 basis points. Recent data has increased our confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain. Governing Council is closely watching the evolution of core inflation and remains particularly focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Mark Rendell in the Globe reports:

In the wake of the announcement, bonds rallied and yields fell, while the Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar, dropping briefly into the US$0.72 range before rebounding. Bay Street traders, meanwhile, upped their bets on further cuts this year.

Interest-rate swap markets, which capture expectations about monetary policy, now put the odds of another rate cut at the next BoC meeting on July 24 at around 40 per cent, according to Refinitiv data. Markets are pricing in two more cuts between now and the end of the year.
…
“Inflation remains above the 2-per-cent target and shelter inflation is high,” Mr. Macklem said Wednesday. “But total consumer price index inflation has declined consistently over the course of this year, and indicators of underlying inflation increasingly point to a sustained easing.”

This has not been without costs. The Canadian economy has flatlined over the past year, and actually shrank on a per-capita basis. Business insolvencies are up and the unemployment rate has risen a full percentage point as job creation has failed to keep pace with population growth.
…
Meanwhile, the country is facing a wall of mortgage renewals. Only about half of all homeowners with mortgages have renewed since rates started to rise in 2022. The other half, many of whom took on large mortgages when interest rates were at rock-bottom during the pandemic, are looking at huge payment shocks when they renew over the next few years.

And Darcy Keith provides a snapshot of the swaps market at 10:02am, seventeen minutes after the announcement:

Prime followed:

• TD : Down 0.25% to 6.95%
• CIBC: Down 0.25% to 6.95%
• BNS: Down 0.25% to 6.95%
• RBC: Down 0.25% to 6.95%
• BMO:Down 0.25% to 6.95%

Well, Rob Carrick and Ryan Siever will be mad – nothing on the way up and precious few hopes for the way down:

There’s a case to be made for banks giving borrowers a break when what is expected to be the biggest interest rate hike in 22 years is announced on Wednesday.

A brief flashback to 2015 is required to get the sense of this story. The economy back then was in the opposite shape of what it is now – weak enough to prompt the Bank of Canada to cut its trendsetting overnight rate by 0.25 of a percentage point in January and again in July.

The big banks hijacked part of that rate cut. While the overnight rate fell by a total 0.5 of a point, the banks cut their prime rate by cumulative 0.3 of a point. They held back the rest of the rate cut to build their revenues and profit.

There was a delay in reducing the prime when the Canada Overnight rate dropped 25bp to 0.75% in January 2015 and again when Canada Overnight dropped a further 25bp to 0.50% in July of that year.

The Bank of Canada has announced it has:

increased its target for the overnight rate to 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global inflation is easing, with lower energy prices and a decline in goods price inflation. However, robust demand and tight labour markets are causing persistent inflationary pressures in services. Economic growth has been stronger than expected, especially in the United States, where consumer and business spending has been surprisingly resilient. After a surge in early 2023, China’s economic growth is softening, with slowing exports and ongoing weakness in its property sector. Growth in the euro area is effectively stalled: while the service sector continues to grow, manufacturing is contracting. Global financial conditions have tightened, with bond yields up in North America and Europe as major central banks signal further interest rate increases may be needed to combat inflation.

The Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects the global economy will grow by around 2.8% this year and 2.4% in 2024, followed by 2.7% growth in 2025.

Canada’s economy has been stronger than expected, with more momentum in demand. Consumption growth has been surprisingly strong at 5.8% in the first quarter. While the Bank expects consumer spending to slow in response to the cumulative increase in interest rates, recent retail trade and other data suggest more persistent excess demand in the economy. In addition, the housing market has seen some pickup. New construction and real estate listings are lagging demand, which is adding pressure to prices. In the labour market, there are signs of more availability of workers, but conditions remain tight, and wage growth has been around 4-5%. Strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to demand for housing.

As higher interest rates continue to work their way through the economy, the Bank expects economic growth to slow, averaging around 1% through the second half of this year and the first half of next year. This implies real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. The economy will move into modest excess supply early next year before growth picks up to 2.4% in 2025.

Inflation in Canada eased to 3.4% in May, a substantial and welcome drop from its peak of 8.1% last summer. While CPI inflation has come down largely as expected so far this year, the downward momentum has come more from lower energy prices, and less from easing underlying inflation. With the large price increases of last year out of the annual data, there will be less near-term downward momentum in CPI inflation. Moreover, with three-month rates of core inflation running around 3½-4% since last September, underlying price pressures appear to be more persistent than anticipated. This is reinforced by the Bank’s business surveys, which find businesses are still increasing their prices more frequently than normal.

In the July MPR projection, CPI inflation is forecast to hover around 3% for the next year before gradually declining to 2% in the middle of 2025. This is a slower return to target than was forecast in the January and April projections. Governing Council remains concerned that progress towards the 2% target could stall, jeopardizing the return to price stability.

In light of the accumulation of evidence that excess demand and elevated core inflation are both proving more persistent, and taking into account its revised outlook for economic activity and inflation, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate to 5%. Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Mark Rendell in the Globe reports:

So far, signs of acute financial strain remain relatively limited, the bank said in a special section of its quarterly monetary policy report, published Wednesday. Delinquency rates for household debt, such as credit card debt and auto loans, are rising, but they remain below prepandemic levels. Meanwhile, mortgage delinquencies are near all-time lows, even for variable-rate mortgage holders, who have been squeezed the most by rising interest rates.

But there are some pockets of concern, the bank said.

“Credit card data show that borrowers are using their credit cards more extensively than they have in the past,” it said. “In addition, although overall delinquency rates on loans remain relatively low, the share of borrowers moving from 60 to 90+ days late on any credit product has risen and is now close to a historical high.”

Many homeowners have been cushioned against rising rates because their lenders have let them extend the amortization periods of their mortgages rather than increasing their monthly payments. The bank noted that only one-third of mortgage holders have been affected by higher rates so far.

“As this share increases over the coming quarters, more households will face higher debt-service costs. Mortgage holders with variable-rate fixed payments could be particularly exposed,” the bank said.

Prime followed:

• TD : Up 0.25% to 7.20%
• CIBC: Up 0.25% to 7.20%
• BNS: Up 0.25% to 7.20%
• RBC: Up 0.25% to 7.20%
• BMO:Up 0.25% to 7.20%

Well, Rob Carrick and Ryan Siever will be mad:

There’s a case to be made for banks giving borrowers a break when what is expected to be the biggest interest rate hike in 22 years is announced on Wednesday.

A brief flashback to 2015 is required to get the sense of this story. The economy back then was in the opposite shape of what it is now – weak enough to prompt the Bank of Canada to cut its trendsetting overnight rate by 0.25 of a percentage point in January and again in July.

The big banks hijacked part of that rate cut. While the overnight rate fell by a total 0.5 of a point, the banks cut their prime rate by cumulative 0.3 of a point. They held back the rest of the rate cut to build their revenues and profit.

There was a delay in reducing the prime when the Canada Overnight rate dropped 25bp to 0.75% in January 2015 and again when Canada Overnight dropped a further 25bp to 0.50% in July of that year.

The Bank of Canada has announced it has:

increased its target for the overnight rate to 4¾%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 4¾%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Globally, consumer price inflation is coming down, largely reflecting lower energy prices compared to a year ago, but underlying inflation remains stubbornly high. While economic growth around the world is softening in the face of higher interest rates, major central banks are signalling that interest rates may have to rise further to restore price stability. In the United States, the economy is slowing, although consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient and the labour market is still tight. Economic growth has essentially stalled in Europe but upward pressure on core prices is persisting. Growth in China is expected to slow after surging in the first quarter. Financial conditions have tightened back to those seen before the bank failures in the United States and Switzerland.

Canada’s economy was stronger than expected in the first quarter of 2023, with GDP growth of 3.1%. Consumption growth was surprisingly strong and broad-based, even after accounting for the boost from population gains. Demand for services continued to rebound. In addition, spending on interest-sensitive goods increased and, more recently, housing market activity has picked up. The labour market remains tight: higher immigration and participation rates are expanding the supply of workers but new workers have been quickly hired, reflecting continued strong demand for labour. Overall, excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated.

CPI inflation ticked up in April to 4.4%, the first increase in 10 months, with prices for a broad range of goods and services coming in higher than expected. Goods price inflation increased, despite lower energy costs. Services price inflation remained elevated, reflecting strong demand and a tight labour market. The Bank continues to expect CPI inflation to ease to around 3% in the summer, as lower energy prices feed through and last year’s large price gains fall out of the yearly data. However, with three-month measures of core inflation running in the 3½-4% range for several months and excess demand persisting, concerns have increased that CPI inflation could get stuck materially above the 2% target.

Based on the accumulation of evidence, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate, reflecting our view that monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation sustainably to the 2% target. Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Mark Rendell in the Globe reports:

Interest-rate swaps, which capture market expectations about monetary policy, are now pricing in a roughly 60-per-cent chance of another rate hike in July, and an 85-per-cent chance of a rate hike by September, according to Refinitiv data.
…
The rate hike drew condemnation from across the political spectrum. Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre called it “a disaster for the many Canadians barely hanging on,” and blamed government spending and budget deficits for pushing up inflation. Bea Bruske, president of the Canadian Labour Congress, said the bank’s move was “deeply disappointing.”

The central bank has come under political attack over the past year and a half – first for failing to keep inflation under control, then for its aggressive campaign to raise interest rates to bring inflation back down.

Prime followed:

• TD : Up 0.25% to 6.95%
• CIBC: Up 0.25% to 6.95%
• BNS: Up 0.25% to 6.95%
• RBC: Up 0.25% to 6.95%
• BMO:Up 0.25% to 6.95%

Well, Rob Carrick and Ryan Siever will be mad:

There’s a case to be made for banks giving borrowers a break when what is expected to be the biggest interest rate hike in 22 years is announced on Wednesday.

A brief flashback to 2015 is required to get the sense of this story. The economy back then was in the opposite shape of what it is now – weak enough to prompt the Bank of Canada to cut its trendsetting overnight rate by 0.25 of a percentage point in January and again in July.

The big banks hijacked part of that rate cut. While the overnight rate fell by a total 0.5 of a point, the banks cut their prime rate by cumulative 0.3 of a point. They held back the rest of the rate cut to build their revenues and profit.

There was a delay in reducing the prime when the Canada Overnight rate dropped 25bp to 0.75% in January 2015 and again when Canada Overnight dropped a further 25bp to 0.50% in July of that year.

The Bank of Canada has announced it has:

today increased its target for the overnight rate to 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global inflation remains high and broad-based. Inflation is coming down in many countries, largely reflecting lower energy prices as well as improvements in global supply chains. In the United States and Europe, economies are slowing but proving more resilient than was expected at the time of the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). China’s abrupt lifting of COVID-19 restrictions has prompted an upward revision to the growth forecast for China and poses an upside risk to commodity prices. Russia’s war on Ukraine remains a significant source of uncertainty. Financial conditions remain restrictive but have eased since October, and the Canadian dollar has been relatively stable against the US dollar.

The Bank estimates the global economy grew by about 3½% in 2022, and will slow to about 2% in 2023 and 2½% in 2024. This projection is slightly higher than October’s.

In Canada, recent economic growth has been stronger than expected and the economy remains in excess demand. Labour markets are still tight: the unemployment rate is near historic lows and businesses are reporting ongoing difficulty finding workers. However, there is growing evidence that restrictive monetary policy is slowing activity, especially household spending. Consumption growth has moderated from the first half of 2022 and housing market activity has declined substantially. As the effects of interest rate increases continue to work through the economy, spending on consumer services and business investment are expected to slow. Meanwhile, weaker foreign demand will likely weigh on exports. This overall slowdown in activity will allow supply to catch up with demand.

The Bank estimates Canada’s economy grew by 3.6% in 2022, slightly stronger than was projected in October. Growth is expected to stall through the middle of 2023, picking up later in the year. The Bank expects GDP growth of about 1% in 2023 and about 2% in 2024, little changed from the October outlook.

Inflation has declined from 8.1% in June to 6.3% in December, reflecting lower gasoline prices and, more recently, moderating prices for durable goods. Despite this progress, Canadians are still feeling the hardship of high inflation in their essential household expenses, with persistent price increases for food and shelter. Short-term inflation expectations remain elevated. Year-over-year measures of core inflation are still around 5%, but 3-month measures of core inflation have come down, suggesting that core inflation has peaked.

Inflation is projected to come down significantly this year. Lower energy prices, improvements in global supply conditions, and the effects of higher interest rates on demand are expected to bring CPI inflation down to around 3% in the middle of this year and back to the 2% target in 2024.

With persistent excess demand putting continued upward pressure on many prices, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate by a further 25 basis points. The Bank’s ongoing program of quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of the policy rate. If economic developments evolve broadly in line with the MPR outlook, Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases. Governing Council is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target, and remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

The Monetary Policy Report has also been made available.

David Parkinson points out:

The Bank of Canada warned that although the pace of wage growth “appears to have plateaued” in the range of 4 to 5 per cent annually, it remains a threat to achieving a return to its 2-per-cent inflation target.

In its Monetary Policy Report, the bank didn’t mince words.

“Unless a surprisingly strong pick-up in productivity growth occurs, sustained 4 per cent to 5 per cent growth is not consistent with achieving the 2-per-cent inflation target.”

Think of a sustainable pace for wage growth as the rate of productivity growth plus the rate of inflation.

So, you would need productivity to grow by between 2 and 3 per cent annually to support this sort of wage growth while sustaining 2-per-cent inflation. Labour productivity grew 0.6 per cent in the third quarter compared to the second quarter (the latest figures available from Statistics Canada), but actually declined 0.3 per cent year over year.

The implication is that if wage growth doesn’t retreat, barring a surge in productivity, the bank’s quest for 2-per-cent inflation will run into a road block – and higher interest rates for longer may be necessary to achieve the target.

Prime followed:

• TD : Up 0.25% to 6.70%
• CIBC: Up 0.25% to 6.70%
• BNS: Up 0.25% to 6.70%
• RBC: Up 0.25% to 6.70%
• BMO:Up 0.25% to 6.70%

Well, Rob Carrick and Ryan Siever will be mad:

There’s a case to be made for banks giving borrowers a break when what is expected to be the biggest interest rate hike in 22 years is announced on Wednesday.

A brief flashback to 2015 is required to get the sense of this story. The economy back then was in the opposite shape of what it is now – weak enough to prompt the Bank of Canada to cut its trendsetting overnight rate by 0.25 of a percentage point in January and again in July.

The big banks hijacked part of that rate cut. While the overnight rate fell by a total 0.5 of a point, the banks cut their prime rate by cumulative 0.3 of a point. They held back the rest of the rate cut to build their revenues and profit.

There was a delay in reducing the prime when the Canada Overnight rate dropped 25bp to 0.75% in January 2015 and again when Canada Overnight dropped a further 25bp to 0.50% in July of that year.