Archive for August, 2006

August 31, 2006

Thursday, August 31st, 2006
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Current Yield (at bid) YTW Average Trading Value Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.41% 4.37% 29,275 16.58 2 0.0406% 988.2
Fixed-Floater 4.97% 4.14% 314,554 13.94 6 0.2749% 997.6
Floater 4.59% -18.25% 60,762 6.44 5 0.0718% 1,008.6
Op. Retract 4.71% 2.39% 73,364 2.55 18 -0.0871% 1,006.7
Split-Share 5.01% 3.42% 54,290 2.73 10 -0.0563% 1,005.5
Interest Bearing 6.82% 5.03% 58,842 1.88 7 0.0612% 1,017.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.25% 4.27% 153,992 3.85 42 0.0663% 1,018.1
Perpetual-Discount 4.69% 4.67% 339,913 11.66 13 0.2667% 1,029.5
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.E OpRet -1.6886%  
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater (but not in index) +2.5437% A busy day for this issue, with 12,600 shares trading. Some traded as high as $26.80! I can’t imagine what all the fuss is about: these are “Fixed-Floater-to-Become-Ratchet-Rate” prefs, which will have their coupon adjusted (down, I bet!) on 2006-11-01; the alternative is to convert to ratchets. I don’t see any news releases, particularly not any that would indicate they’re going to increase the dividend! I think somebody just got suckered, that’s what I think. Holders can exchange into BAM.PR.E if they like, on 2006-11-01
BAM.PR.E Ratchet (but not in index) +1.0342% The bid’s way up on zero volume! Holders can exchange into BAM.PR.G on 2006-11-01, if they like. It’s all very mysterious.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BC.PR.C FixedFloater 329,826  
WN.PR.E PerpetualDiscount 23,110  
SLF.PR.B PerpetualDiscount 20,680  
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 14,620  
BNS.PR.J PerpetualPremium 14,054 Nesbitt crossed 10,000 @ $27.00. The issue has a YTW of 4.10% at the closing bid price of $26.95

There were four other ‘normally priced’ ($25 par value) issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

August 30, 2006

Wednesday, August 30th, 2006
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Current Yield (at bid) YTW Average Trading Value Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.41% 4.37% 29,755 16.59 2 0.0203% 987.8
Fixed-Floater 4.99% 4.22% 295,464 13.93 6 0.2351% 994.9
Floater 4.59% -18.06% 61,890 6.44 5 -0.0157% 1,007.9
Op. Retract 4.70% 2.47% 73,737 2.56 18 0.1755% 1,007.6
Split-Share 5.01% 3.46% 54,504 2.74 10 -0.0905% 1,006.1
Interest Bearing 6.82% 5.13% 59,583 1.88 7 0.0838% 1,016.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.25% 4.25% 155,939 4.09 42 0.1016% 1,017.4
Perpetual-Discount 4.70% 4.68% 342,629 12.39 13 0.0884% 1,026.7
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BC.PR.B FixedFloater +2.1268% A bid came back to offset yesterday’s swoon … partially! No shares were traded. The quote is now 24.01-85, 5×5.
GWO.PR.E OpRet +1.2542% On light volume of 991 shares, with only 100 shares bid at $26.65
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
RY.PR.B PerpetualDiscount 230,995 Increased volume of late may mean that new-issue buyers see an opportunity to exit … or that unsold inventory is being cleared out … or nothing at all. Take your pick. Since the first day of trading, July 20, the PerpetualDiscount index is up a shade over 2.5%
GWO.PR.H PerpetualDiscount 50,035  
BC.PR.C FixedFloater 42,419  
MFC.PR.B PerpetualDiscount 38,150 Nesbitt bought a total of 25,000 from various dealers at $25.00 shortly before the close.
PWF.PR.L PerpetualPremium 34,300 RBC crossed 27,000 @ 25.80

There were seven other ‘normally priced’ ($25 par value) issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

RY.PR.O

Tuesday, August 29th, 2006

This issue drifted into negative-YTW territory today, with a closing quotation of $25.70-78.

The redemption schedule is:

  • Redemption      2004-08-24      2005-08-23  26.000000
  • Redemption      2005-08-24      2006-08-23  25.750000
  • Redemption      2006-08-24      2007-08-23  25.500000
  • Redemption      2007-08-24      2008-08-23  25.250000
  • Redemption      2008-08-24   INFINITE DATE  25.000000

The redemption scenarios have been calculated by HIMIPref™ as:

 

  • Call  2006-09-28 YTM: -3.21 % [Restricted: -0.26 %] (Prob: 25.13 %)
  • Call  2006-11-27 YTM: 2.46 % [Restricted: 0.61 %] (Prob: 7.18 %)
  • Call  2007-05-26 YTM: 4.45 % [Restricted: 3.29 %] (Prob: 5.22 %)
  • Call  2007-09-23 YTM: 3.83 % [Restricted: 3.83 %] (Prob: 6.35 %)
  • Call  2008-09-23 YTM: 4.14 % [Restricted: 4.14 %] (Prob: 5.29 %)
  • Limit Maturity  2036-08-29 YTM: 5.38 % [Restricted: 5.38 %] (Prob: 50.82 %)

One interesting thing about this analysis is the inclusion of the scenario with the end-date of 2007-05-26. The HIMIPref™ constant OPTION_EXERCISE_CALCULATION_INCREMENT_PROBABILITY is currently set to 5% – therefore, since the Option calculation probability has crept up that much higher by 2007-05-26 than it was on the date of the previous entry in the optionCalculationList dated 2006-11-27 (which in turn was sufficiently higher than the previous threshold dated 2006-09-28), the redemption scenario is included in the calculation of portfolioYield

This issue pays $1.375 and given the $0.25 decline in call price annually, the net annual cost to Royal of the money is $1.125 – a tad more expensive than their RY.PR.A issue, but cheaper to them than RY.PR.B! I can’t say I’d bet much on it being around for more than two more years … but who knows? Maybe comparable new issues will be paying more than 5.5% dividends at that time.

Which, of course, is what makes this business fun!

RY.PR.S

Tuesday, August 29th, 2006

RBC announced on August 25 that this issue will be redeemed at a price of $26.00 on October 6.

The total issue size is 10-million shares, representing $250-million in bank capital.

It was paying $1.525 (issue yield = 6.1%) and its first day of trading was June 26, 2001.

The call schedule was:

  • Redemption      2006-08-24      2007-08-23  26.000000
  • Redemption      2007-08-24      2008-08-23  25.750000
  • Redemption      2008-08-24      2009-08-23  25.500000
  • Redemption      2009-08-24      2010-08-23  25.250000
  • Redemption      2010-08-24      2999-12-29  25.000000

Although they could have saved themselves $0.25 annually on the call price by waiting, Royal would have had to have paid the $1.525 dividend at the same time, for a net cost of $1.275. Since their recent RY.PR.A issue pays $1.1125 and RY.PR.B pays $1.175, it’s not too surprising that such an expensive issue is being called now.

Update 2006-09-27 : See also the August 11, 2006 Comment.

August 29, 2006

Tuesday, August 29th, 2006
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Current Yield (at bid) YTW Average Trading Value Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.40% 4.36% 29,445 16.60 2 0.0205% 987.6
Fixed-Floater 5.00% 4.23% 297,397 13.90 6 -0.7880% 992.5
Floater 4.59% -17.67% 62,819 6.45 5 -0.2588% 1,008.1
Op. Retract 4.71% 2.92% 74,696 2.61 18 -0.0591% 1,005.8
Split-Share 5.00% 3.34% 54,793 2.74 10 0.0490% 1,007.0
Interest Bearing 6.83% 5.08% 59,137 2.12 7 0.1998% 1,015.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.25% 4.06% 156,781 3.80 42 0.1772% 1,016.4
Perpetual-Discount 4.70% 4.70% 333,155 12.37 13 0.1058% 1,025.8
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BC.PR.B FixedFloater -5.7338% A sale of 650 shares by RBC (retail, surely!) took out the bid with a closing price of $24.50 and left the closing bid at $23.51. It’s probable that a bid will be back tomorrow … but on the other hand, this trade occurred at 2:40pm and nothing had materialized by way of a bid until the 4pm close
AL.PR.E Floater -1.3208% Total volume 8,800 shares, a relatively active day for this issue.
FFN.PR.A SplitShare -1.2915% Closing bid = closing price = $10.37, implying a YTW of 4.02% on this issue, above average for a split-share.
PWF.PR.J OpRet -1.0428% Volume 4,175 shares, marginally above average for this issue
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
RY.PR.B PerpetualDiscount 127,277  
SLF.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 60,880 RBC bought 50,000 from TD just before the close @25.20
BAM.PR.K Floater 51,750 Scotia crossed 50,000 @ 24.30
SLF.PR.C PerpetualDiscount 34,600 Nesbitt bought 32,000 in five tranches – 1,000 from CIBC, the remainder from RBC
IAG.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 24,200 Nesbitt executed an internal cross of 23,800 shares at $24.91

There were thirteen other index-included issues with volumes of more than 10,000 shares.

 Another strong day, at least for the perpetuals! Strong enough, in fact, that two issues crossed over into negative YTW territory:

 ENB.PR.A is now bid at $25.69 even though it is currently callable at $25.50, with the redemption price slated to tick down a quarter in December.

RY.PR.O is now bid at $25.70, although it is currently callable at $25.50; the redemption price will next tick down a quarter in August 2007.

August 28, 2006

Monday, August 28th, 2006
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Current Yield (at bid) YTW Average Trading Value Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.38% 4.36% 29,022 16.56 2 0.0405% 987.4
Fixed-Floater 4.96% 4.20% 299,177 13.99 6 -0.3358% 1,000.4
Floater 4.58% -20.07% 60,790 6.44 5 0.0557% 1,010.7
Op. Retract 4.70% 2.72% 74,016 2.61 18 0.1291% 1,006.4
Split-Share 5.00% 3.58% 55,089 2.74 10 0.0753% 1,006.5
Interest Bearing 6.83% 5.20% 58,720 2.11 7 0.0696% 1,013.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.26% 4.30% 158,496 3.88 42 0.0397% 1,014.6
Perpetual-Discount 4.70% 4.70% 327,845 12.36 13 0.0817% 1,024.7
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
No major price changes in index-included issues today.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
RY.PR.B PerpetualDiscount 24,155  
SLF.PR.C PerpetualDiscount 16,520  
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 16,159  
PWF.PR.L PerpetualPremium 14,205  
SLF.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 13,470  

There were four other index-included issues with volumes of more than 10,000 shares.

August 25, 2006

Friday, August 25th, 2006
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Current Yield (at bid) YTW Average Trading Value Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.38% 4.36% 28,809 16.57 2 0.2026% 987.0
Fixed-Floater 4.94% 4.10% 301,838 11.40 6 0.1157% 1,003.8
Floater 4.58% -20.08% 61,448 6.43 5 0.0168% 1,010.1
Op. Retract 4.70% 2.53% 74,078 2.56 18 0.0531% 1,005.1
Split-Share 5.00% 3.41% 54,803 2.75 10 0.0439% 1,005.7
Interest Bearing 6.83% 5.23% 58,604 2.12 7 -0.0248% 1,013.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.26% 4.22% 160,712 4.13 42 0.0096% 1,014.2
Perpetual-Discount 4.70% 4.70% 330,141 12.37 13 0.1964% 1,023.9
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
No major price changes in index-included issues today.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BC.PR.C FixedFloater 663,038 Desjardins crossed 650,000 @ 25.03
RY.PR.W PerpetualPremium 75,900 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 @ 25.80. This issue has a YTW of 4.46% at the closing bid of $25.75
WN.PR.E PerpetualDiscount 42,670  
POW.PR.D PerpetualPremium 26,389  
PWF.PR.F PerpetualPremium 15,175 National bought a total of 13,100 in four tranches, notably 11,600 from Royal at $25.80

There were four other index-included issues with volumes of more than 10,000 shares.

August 24, 2006

Thursday, August 24th, 2006
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Current Yield (at bid) YTW Average Trading Value Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.39% 4.37% 28,053 16.56 2 -0.1206% 985.0
Fixed-Floater 4.94% 4.07% 284,333 11.45 6 0.0407% 1,002.6
Floater 4.58% -19.92% 61,906 6.44 5 0.0239% 1,009.9
Op. Retract 4.71% 2.85% 75,039 2.56 18 -0.0039% 1,004.6
Split-Share 5.00% 3.46% 55,606 2.75 10 0.2173% 1,005.3
Interest Bearing 6.83% 5.14% 60,101 2.12 7 -0.0460% 1,013.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.26% 4.08% 162,555 3.78 42 0.0400% 1,014.1
Perpetual-Discount 4.71% 4.71% 333,755 12.35 13 0.1246% 1,021.9
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
FTN.PR.A SplitShare +1.3579%  
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BC.PR.C FixedFloater 635,544 Scotia crossed 100,000 @25.03; Desjardins crossed 12,000 at the same price.
BC.PR.E Ratchet 200,000 Scotia crossed 200,000 @ 25.12 in the only trade of this issue for the day.
WN.PR.A PerpetualPremium 109,580  
BNS.PR.K PerpetualPremium 55,880  
TOC.PR.B Floater 40,692  

There were nine other index-included issues with volumes of more than 10,000 shares.

August 23, 2006

Wednesday, August 23rd, 2006
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Current Yield (at bid) YTW Average Trading Value Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.38% 4.36% 27,056 16.57 2 -0.2016% 986.2
Fixed-Floater 4.95% 4.15% 268,331 11.47 6 0.7703% 1,002.2
Floater 4.59% -19.64% 60,165 6.44 5 -0.2679% 1,009.7
Op. Retract 4.71% 2.85% 75,881 2.57 18 0.0732% 1,004.6
Split-Share 5.01% 3.60% 56,016 2.75 10 0.0061% 1,003.1
Interest Bearing 6.83% 5.09% 59,939 2.12 7 0.1704% 1,013.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.27% 4.14% 164,138 3.79 42 0.0063% 1,013.7
Perpetual-Discount 4.72% 4.73% 338,076 12.35 13 0.0688% 1,020.6
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BCE.PR.A FixedFloater +4.0875% Recovering from yesterday’s swoon. Scotia crossed 25,000 @25.25, an impressively repetetive trade. Closed at $25.21-29, so things are back to normal … for now!
CM.PR.D PerpetualPremium +1.1654% The pre-tax YTW is only 3.72 at the closing bid of $26.91
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BC.PR.C FixedFloater 166,809  
TD.PR.O PerpetualPremium 136,800  
POW.PR.D PerpetualPremium 62,780 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 @25.60
TOC.PR.B Floater 50,741 CIBC sold a whack @25.50: 24,400 to Nesbitt; 25,000 to Desjardins and 500 (sic) to Royal – must have been a retail bid that was in the way.
BMO.PR.I OpRet 38,600 Scotia crossed 37,300 @ 25.50; YTW of this issue is a niggardly 2.61% at the closing bid of 25.42, based on a call as soon as the redemption price goes down to $25.25 at the end of November. It’s more likely, however, that BMO will keep the issue alive for another year, paying $1.1875 dividend but saving $0.25 on the redemption price. This scenario implies a pre-tax YTM of 3.97%, not bad at all … if you can rely on BMO not calling the issue!

There were seven other index-included issues with volumes of more than 10,000 shares.

August 22, 2006

Tuesday, August 22nd, 2006
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Current Yield (at bid) YTW Average Trading Value Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.37% 4.35% 27,146 16.60 2 0.1214% 988.1
Fixed-Floater 4.98% 4.27% 258,200 13.97 6 -0.6151% 994.6
Floater 4.57% -22.39% 59,999 6.42 5 0.2253% 1,012.4
Op. Retract 4.71% 2.88% 76,317 2.57 18 0.0821% 1,003.9
Split-Share 5.01% 3.53% 55,913 2.75 10 -0.1889% 1,003.0
Interest Bearing 6.84% 5.19% 60,185 2.12 7 0.0172% 1,012.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.27% 4.13% 164,875 3.77 42 0.0849% 1,013.6
Perpetual-Discount 4.72% 4.73% 341,736 13.09 13 -0.0179% 1,019.9
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BCE.PR.A FixedFloater -3.89% Bid disappeared after about 1,100 shares traded at 25.19 at the close. Closing bid was $24.22
FTN.PR.A SplitShare -1.34% 15,180 shares traded, a relatively heavy day for this issue
AL.PR.F Floater +1.29% On average volume
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
SLF.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 204,300  
PWF.PR.L PerpetualPremium 121,822  
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 76,600 BMO bought 71,400 from Scotia at $24.40
IGM.PR.A OperatingRetractible 46,393 Scotia crossed 40,000 @ 28.00. This the highest priced issue in the OperatingRetractible index, with a coupon of $1.4375 and a pre-tax YTW of 3.08% @$28.00
WN.PR.E PerpetualDiscount 21,628  

There were six other index-included issues with volumes of more than 10,000 shares.
The YTW on RY.PR.K (an operating retractible) moved back into positive territory today, pre-tax YTW of 3.48% based on a closing bid of $25.27