PrefBlog

Yesterday I reported on the optimistic accounting at BNP Paribas. The Danes are cracking down on optimism:

The Financial Supervisory Authority will restrict the flexibility it gives banks to calculate writedowns under international financial reporting standards, FSA Director General Ulrik Noedgaard said in an interview in Copenhagen. The regulator wants to curb “an optimistic approach” to writedowns displayed by some banks, he said.

Amagerbanken A/S and Fjordbank Mors A/S collapsed this year after the FSA told the two regional lenders to write down 1.9 billion kroner ($371 million) more in property and farming loans than stated in their accounts. The insolvencies triggered the European Union’s first senior creditor losses within a resolution framework, and prompted Moody’s Investors Service in May to downgrade six Danish banks, including Danske Bank A/S, the country’s biggest. Proper accounting could have helped deal with the losses in a less disruptive way, Noedgaard said.

This one will drive the slogan-chanters nuts:

Standard & Poor’s is giving a higher rating to securities backed by subprime home loans, the same type of investments that led to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, than it assigns the U.S. government.

S&P is poised to provide AAA grades to 59 percent of Springleaf Mortgage Loan Trust 2011-1, a set of bonds tied to $497 million lent to homeowners with below-average credit scores and almost no equity in their properties. New York-based S&P stripped the U.S. of its top rank on Aug. 5, saying Washington politics were making the country less creditworthy.
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S&P has awarded AAAs to more than $36 billion of securities in the U.S. this year that were created by bankers who continue to gather thousands of loans, bundle them into bonds of varying risk and pay ratings firms a fee to assign credit rankings.

The ambulance-chasers are after Sino-Forest … and anybody else they can blame for their investment:

Sino-Forest Corp. (TRE-T4.81—-%), the TSX-listed Chinese forestry company whose shares have collapsed following fraud allegations, repeatedly misrepresented its financial statements, backdated stock options and engaged in unusual and undisclosed related-party transactions, according to fresh allegations levelled in a proposed class-action lawsuit seeking more than $7-billion in damages.

The notice of action, filed on behalf of a group of Sino-Forest shareholders who purchased shares in various offerings between 2007 and 2011, is seeking more than $6.5-billion in damages from Sino-Forest, its top management, directors, and auditors Ernst & Young LLP, as well as the Beijing office of Pöyry Consulting Co. Ltd., which published reports about the size and value of the company’s forestry assets.

A host of investment banks … that underwrote Sino-Forest’s equity offerings were also named as proposed defendants in the action, which seeks an additional $824-million related to the stock sales.

Say what you like about US Republicans, they’re rugged individualists who scorn government hand-outs:

When Texas billionaire Harold Simmons wanted to build a radioactive waste dump, one data point that would loom large in the permitting process wasn’t required on the application: He is a major donor to Governor Rick Perry.
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Perry has a public record of rewarding his political donors with jobs and state contracts. He has appointed about 4,000 people — including many donors — to commissions, boards and other posts, according to Texans for Public Justice, an Austin- based, nonpartisan group that tracks state political donations.

The campaign to eliminate humour in the western world scored another victory:

The department store said in its statement: “We agree that the ‘Too pretty’ T-shirt does not deliver an appropriate message, and we have immediately discontinued its sale. Our merchandise is intended to appeal to a broad customer base, not to offend them.”

YLO did not file any Insider MTN purchases on SEDI today, but the Normal Course Issuer Bid for the preferreds continued – in fact, it appears that the company bought a block, as some insider (presumably the company) bought a block of 57,100 YLO.PR.B at 9.15, total value $522,465. The common traded somewhere north of 179-million shares on the month – about a third of the entire float, although a lot of that will be double-counted, what with day-traders and all.

The Canadian preferred share market closed the month on a mixed note, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 16bp, FixedResets up 2bp and DeemedRetractibles winning 18bp. Volatility was average. Volume was average.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.39%, equivalent to 7.01% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long Corporates now yield about 5.00%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (also called the seniority spread) is now 201bp, a tightening from the 210bp reported August 24 as yields converged slightly.

I sincerely hope that the banks have shot themselves in the foot:

The Bay Street firms that weren’t invited into the Maple Group plan to buy TMX Group Inc. (X-T39.94-0.42-1.04%) are lining up their options to ensure that competition and low-priced trading services remain should the deal to create a market-dominating company goes through.
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The Maple plan would combine the two biggest players in the country in trading, and create a for-profit system to replace the current not-for-profit clearing system for shuttling cash between buyers and sellers of stocks after trades take place.
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That’s why sources said some brokerages are already mulling the idea of starting a new trading system to compete in the business of matching stock buy-and-sell orders, and pushing regulators to adopt a strict cost control system for the clearing business based on the utility industry.

Eric Reguly of the Globe speculates that the LSE might come back with a new offer.

European debt problems are causing a little bit of what some might call hanky panky:

It appears that some companies are not following IAS 39 when determining whether the Greek government bonds that they classify as AFS are impaired. They are using the assessed impact on the present value of future cash flows arising from the proposed restructure of those bonds, rather than using the amount reflected by current market prices as required in IAS 39.

In addition, some companies holding Greek government bonds classified as AFS have stated that they are relying on internal valuation methodologies, rather than on market prices, to measure the fair value of the assets as at 30 June 2011. The reason generally given for using models rather than market prices is that the market for Greek government bonds is currently inactive (and therefore, in their view, does not provide reliable pricing information).

One bank pulling a fast one is BNP Paribas:

However, you wouldn’t normally discover government bonds in Level 3.

BNP Paribas’ argument seems to be that the market for Greek debt is now so illiquid that this accounting shift is justified. The bank explains its determination of fair value and what it counts as an ‘active’ market from page 23 of the full Q2 consolidated financial statements onwards.

Greek debt is hugely illiquid, but the price also reflects a market bet on a massive haircut at some point, and it has done for a while. The influence of Level 3 is in a way appropriate more than you’d think however, as it seems that mathematical modelling has been used during the construction of the Greece bond swap itself. Option 4′s valuation seems to depend on stochastic modelling in some way, for instance.

But for now we’ll just wonder if BNP’s Level 3 will be a guide to other banks taking their Greek impairments medicine…

On a brighter note, sovereign debt is sometimes upgraded:

Peru had its foreign debt rating raised one level by Standard & Poor’s, which said it expects recently elected President Ollanta Humala to continue policies that support the country’s economic expansion.

S&P raised Peru to BBB, the second-lowest investment grade, from BBB-. The outlook is stable. S&P also lifted Paraguay’s rating to BB-, three steps below investment grade, from B+, because an agreement with Brazil to boost its revenue share from a hydroelectric power plant has improved the country’s “fiscal flexibility.”

No new YLO MTN buy-backs but the Normal Course Issuer Bid for the preferreds is still being pursued vigorously, with the fund spending its usual $80,000+ today.

It was a good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 7bp, FixedResets winning 17bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 9bp. Volatility was OK, with several BAM issues doing well. Volume was a little on the light side of average.

Banks are pushing back against proposed capital rules:

The Clearing House Association and the Institute of International Bankers, whose members include JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Citigroup Inc. (C), Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) and ING Groep NV (INGA), said in a letter that capital surcharges agreed to by the Federal Reserve and international regulators are “deeply flawed” and “reflexively based on the notion that size alone creates prudential concerns.”
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Bloomberg News obtained an Aug. 25 draft of the letter, which will be filed as a comment on proposed capital surcharges for big banks agreed on by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in June. The Fed, which is part of the Basel Committee, is also preparing to release its own proposals under the Dodd-Frank Act for stricter standards for the largest U.S. banks sometime in the next five weeks.

Tighter international and U.S. standards on capital, liquidity and risk management are likely to alter competition in the U.S., the banking groups said in their letter. The Basel capital surcharge will “lead to unjustified competitive inequities between large banks” subject to the charge and others that aren’t, they said.

A bit more detail regarding TRE. Sino-Forest announced the resignation of its chairman:

Sino-Forest Corporation (“Sino-Forest” or the “Company”)
(TSX:TRE) announced that Allen Chan has voluntarily resigned as Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Director, pending completion of the review by the Independent Committee of the allegations made by Muddy Waters.
…
Mr. Chan will become Founding Chairman Emeritus of the Company and will be fully available to assist Mr. Martin with operational matters and with the Independent Committee review as requested.

The Globe reported on the sequence of events :

Mr. Chan’s resignation follows a tumultuous week of allegations and confrontations. Shortly after the company alerted the OSC about its discovery of what sources described as irregular deals involving Mr. Chan, the OSC caught the company off guard on Friday by slapping a cease trade order on its stock and ordering the resignation of Mr. Chan and the four executives.

I have not yet seen any updated commentary from Richard Kelertas of Dundee Securities, whose changing views on the topic were discussed here on June 20.

S&P withdrew ratings after a downgrade to CCC-:

• We expect China-based commercial forest operator Sino-Forest’s business
  to rapidly deteriorate following additional fraud allegations and senior management resignations.

• We are lowering the corporate credit rating on Sino-Forest and the issue rating on its senior unsecured notes and convertible bonds to ‘CCC-‘ from ‘B’. We removed all the ratings from CreditWatch.
• We are also withdrawing the ratings due to heightened information risks.
• The negative outlook prior to the rating withdrawal reflected our view that the company’s operations were likely to deteriorate further in the
  next 12 months, at least.

Moody’s also downgrade, but did not withdraw the rating:

Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded to Caa1 from B1 the corporate family and senior unsecured debt ratings of Sino-Forest Corporation (“Sino-Forest”).

At the same time, Moody’s continues its review for further downgrade.

What a surprise! The Maple-TMX deal may well fail!

TMX Group Inc., which has gained the most of any exchange involved in the industry’s biggest wave of acquisitions, is now in danger of being left without a buyer.

Since reaching a three-year high in June as the London Stock Exchange Group Plc and a group of Canadian banks waged a bidding contest, the owner of the Toronto bourse has now fallen more than 10% with the LSE scrapping its agreement. TMX is trading almost $10 below the $50-a-share unsolicited bid from Maple Group Acquisition Corp., close to the widest gap since it was announced in May and indicating that traders are growing increasingly concerned the takeover will also fail.

While more than US$30-billion in acquisitions for exchanges have been announced in the past year, only one deal — Deutsche Boerse AG’s takeover of NYSE Euronext — has been approved by shareholders. Macquarie Group Ltd. says Maple’s attempt to buy TMX may not overcome antitrust scrutiny because it would combine Canada’s largest bourse with its biggest rival, Alpha Group, and create an entity controlling 85 percent of the nation’s trading. That may make TMX, one of the least valuable market venues versus earnings, fall further, said WallachBeth Capital LLC.

Of course, that all depends on what you mean by the word “fail”. If you define success as “scuttling an international acquisition that would create an entity with enough size to talk back to the banks”, then it’s already a success!

The Globe & Mail blog had a good post titled Ms. Lagarde’s recapitalization plan makes sense:

Freed of her government shackles, the former French finance minister pulled no punches Saturday in her first major speech to the august audience. Ms. Lagarde declared flatly that European banks “need urgent recapitalization. They must be strong enough to withstand the risks of sovereigns and weak growth. This is key to cutting the chains of contagion. If it is not addressed, we could easily see the further spread of economic weakness to core countries, or even a debilitating liquidity crisis.”

Her proposal: “Mandatory substantial recapitalization — seeking private resources first, but using public funds if necessary.”
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The response, predictably, has been howls of indignation in European political and banking circles. A Reuters headline summed up the attitude: “Europe snubs IMF call to force-feed bank capital.”
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But there is a saying that a nation’s banking system is only as sound as its government. And that is particularly true in Europe, where banks hold an inordinate amount of government debt on their books. The reason is simple: Loans to your friendly local government count as a risk-free asset under Basel rules. Too bad the markets don’t agree.

Golly – substitute “AAA subprime paper” for “loans to your friendly local government” and that last paragraph could have been written in 2008!

Her published remarks also include an exhortation for the US:

So the United States needs to move on two specific fronts.
….
Second—halting the downward spiral of foreclosures, falling house prices and deteriorating household spending. This could involve more aggressive principal reduction programs for homeowners, stronger intervention by the government housing finance agencies, or steps to help homeowners take advantage of the low interest rate environment.

See the post titled Redefault on Modified Mortgages for more on that idea.

There’s more commentary at BusinessInsider.com

The Italians aren’t hurting enough yet:

The Italian government backtracked on parts of its widely criticized austerity package on Monday, scrapping a tax on high earners and scaling back cuts to local authority funding.

In a statement after seven hours of talks at Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s home outside Milan, the government said it would also exclude years spent at university and military service from retirement age calculations, delaying retirement for some people.

The statement contained little detail on the funding impact of the changes or how the government would make up for revenue lost from the €45.5-billion ($66-billion U.S.) austerity package now making its way through parliament which is aimed at balancing the budget by 2013.

There was also no mention of any increase in value-added tax, a measure which had been widely mooted in the media before the meeting.

It was a good day overall for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 21bp, FixedResets down 3bp and DeemedRetractibles up 10bp. Volatility was reasonable. Volume was a little on the soft side of average.

Three cheers for Muddy Waters!

The Ontario Securities Commission said it ordered five executives of Sino-Forest Corp. (TRE) including Chief Executive Officer Allen Chan to resign because the forestry operator may have misrepresented revenue and exaggerated its timber holdings.

Canada’s main securities regulator also ordered the shares to cease trading, it said in an e-mailed statement today. Stan Neve, an external spokesman for the Hong Kong- and Mississauga, Ontario-based company, declined to comment. OSC spokesman Dylan Rae didn’t immediately return a phone call seeking comment.

The OSC Cease Trade / Suspension Order states in part:

12. Sino-Forest, through its subsidiaries, appears to have engaged in significant non-arm’s length transactions which may have been contrary to Ontario securities laws and the public interest;

13. Sino-Forest and certain of its officers and directors appear to have misrepresented some of its revenue and/or exaggerated some of its timber holdings by providing information to the public in documents required to be filed or furnished under Ontario securities laws which may have been false or misleading in a material respect contrary to section 122 or 126.2 of the Act and contrary to the public interest;

14. Sino-Forest and certain of its officers and directors including Chan appear to be engaging or participating in acts, practices or a course of conduct related to its securities which it and/or they know or reasonably ought to know perpetuate a fraud on any person or company contrary to section 126.1 of the Act and contrary to the public interest;

Let’s take a vote … would the Madoff Ponzi scheme have done so much damage if it had been possible to short-sell his fund?

The OSC later rescinded the order regarding the executives because, um, they don’t have that authority:

The Ontario Securities Act doesn’t allow the commission to force the resignation of a corporate officer in a temporary order without a hearing.

Well, one way or another, it looks like Sino-Forest was actually doing something naughty – just how naughty, is currently impossible to tell, but I don’t think the OSC would take this step unless they could actually point to something meaningful. Fearless Forecast: the usual pack of clowns will claim that (a) this is the regulators’ fault, and (b) it never would have happened if we had a national regulator.

US banks have a problem – too much money:

U.S. regulators have asked some banks to take more deposits from large investors even if it’s unprofitable, and lenders in return are seeking relief on insurance premiums and leverage ratios, according to six people with knowledge of the talks.

Deposits are flooding into the biggest U.S. banks as customers seek shelter from Europe’s debt crisis and falling stock prices. That forces lenders to raise capital for a growing balance sheet and saddles them with the higher deposit insurance payments. With short-term interest rates so low, it’s hard for financial firms to reinvest the new money profitably.
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While the Fed has been paying 0.25 percent interest on deposits placed with the central bank, known as interest on excess reserves, since late 2008, it may not be enough to erase the cost to banks of holding the deposits, said Robert Eisenbeis, a former head of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and now chief monetary economist for Sarasota, Florida-based Cumberland Advisors Inc.
…
FDIC insurance fees for large banks typically average more than 0.1 percent, three of the people said. In addition, large banks also may apply an internal capital charge of at least 0.1 percent to such reserves, one bank executive estimated.

The Greek government has announced terms for its COMPLETELY VOLUNTARY exchange offer:

“Greece shall not be obliged to proceed with any portion of the transaction described in this letter unless holders of eligible GGBs tender, in response to Greece’s eventual Invitation to Tender, eligible GGBs having a principal amount equal to not less than 90% of all eligible GGBs, including 90% of that portion of the eligible GGBs maturing during the period from June 30, 2011 through August 31, 2014. If these thresholds (or either of them) are not met, Greece shall not proceed with any portion of the transaction described in this letter if it determines, in consultation with the official sector, that the total contribution of private sector creditors towards the financing needs of Greece and Greece’s debt sustainability resulting from this transaction is insufficient to permit the official sector to support the new multi-year adjustment program for Greece announced on July 21, 2011.”
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The interest rate (which will comprise of an initial rate applicable to years 1–5 increasing by 0.50% p.a. for years 6-10 and a further 0.50% p.a. for years 11-30) will be determined at or about the time of launch of the liability management transaction (the “Rate Fixing Date”) to result in a net present value of 79% of the face value of eligible GGBs tendered.

Merkel continued to ratchet up the inflammatory language:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said investors are trying to “blackmail” governments into helping debt-strapped European countries, underscoring the need for all euro-area governments to reduce debt.

You tell ’em, Merkel! You tell the financial markets: ‘We won’t pay your extortionate interest rates because we don’t need to borrow any money!’ That’ll fix ’em.

Hurricanes affect markets:

Rates for borrowing and lending securities in the repurchase-agreement market rose and investors sought to extend maturities on concern power outages and closings of mass transit will keep traders home after Hurricane Irene strikes.

Overnight general collateral Treasury repurchase, or repo, rates, opened today at 0.10 percent and traded at 0.13 percent at 10 a.m. New York time, according to data from ICAP Plc, the world’s largest inter-dealer broker.

Securities dealers use repos to finance holdings and increase leverage. The majority of repo transactions take place on an overnight basis, with those current funding positions maturing on Aug. 29. Diminished staffing and computer-related problems following the hurricane may make it difficult to roll over such transactions.

BC voted in favour of increasing the cost of tax collection:

British Columbian voters have rejected the province’s controversial harmonized sales tax in an unprecedented referendum – a decision that will complicate efforts by the province’s Liberal government to manage B.C.’s finances and may also head off the prospect of a fall election.
…
Adrian Dix, leader of the opposition BC New Democrats, urged the provincial government to move quickly to restore the 7 per cent B.C. provincial sales tax., and also urged the Liberals to focus on the economy, jobs, health, education and the environment.

It was a quiet day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 1bp, FixedResets flat, and DeemedRetractibles losing 4bp. Volatility was reasonable; volume was low.