Issue Comments

Fitch Puts Outlook-Negative on MFC

Fitch Ratings has announced:

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) and its primary insurance related operating subsidiaries’ ratings, including The Manufacturer’s Life Insurance Company (MLI) and John Hancock Life Insurance Company (U.S.A.) (JHUSA). At the same time Fitch assigned a ‘A-‘ rating to MLI CAD550m 4.21% fixed/floating subordinated debentures due 2021 (Manulife Finance Corp. guarantor), and a ‘BBB’ rating to MFC’s CAD200m offering of Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class 1, Series 5 preferred shares, both completed in Q411. A complete list of ratings actions is at the end of this release. The Outlook has been revised to Negative for all ratings.
Fitch’s rationale for the ratings includes MFC’s strong capital position, below-average exposure to credit-related risk, good liquidity and strong business profile with significant geographic and product diversity. Additional positive considerations include MFC’s progress in the effective hedging of volatility of earnings and capital related to interest rate and equity market risks.

The Negative Outlook is driven by Fitch’s concerns about negative trends in adjusted earnings and the company’s financial leverage, which is at the high end of rating expectations. MFC’s run rate profitability has been negatively affected by the unfavourable reserve adjustments for product-related experience and policyholder behaviour. Over the near term, Fitch expects reported profitability to be negatively impacted by an extended period of lower interest rates.

Fitch estimates financial leverage increased to 25.8% at year-end 2011 versus 21.0% at 31 December 2010 due in part to a change in Fitch’s hybrid rating criteria in 2011.

Fitch considers MFC’s debt service capacity as below average for the rating and expects earnings based, fixed charge coverage to range between 5 times (x) and 7x in a generally flat equity market scenario in 2012.

Key rating triggers for MFC that could lead to a downgrade include:
–Shortfall in adjusted earnings to below CAD2.5bn for 2012
–Fixed Charge coverage below 5.5x on a 12-month basis
–Financial leverage notably increases from current levels on Fitch’s equity-adjusted leverage basis
–Operating company MCCSR ratio below 190%

Key ratings triggers for MFC that could lead to a revision of the Outlook to Stable include:
–Improved profitability and related fixed charge coverage to 8X
–Significant reduction in earnings volatility on a sustained basis
–Significant reduction in capital and earnings sensitivity to equity markets on a sustained basis
–A decrease in financial leverage to 25%

Manulife Financial Corporation
–CAD250m 4.40% non-cumulative rate reset, preferred class 1, series 5 stock – ‘BBB’

Meanwhile DBRS commented on MFC’s 11Q4:

DBRS has reviewed Manulife Financial Corporation’s (MFC or the Company) Q4 2011 results, released on February 8, 2012, and believes there were no surprises. There are therefore no rating implications at this time.

For the year, the Company’s earnings before goodwill impairments yielded a return on equity (ROE) of 3.2% in 2011. This remains below the Company’s targeted 12% ROE but also includes a number of notable non-cash items related to market movements which, if excluded, would have produced an ROE of 11.5%.

The Company’s weak reported earnings have prevented an accumulation of retained earnings in recent years as dividend payout ratios remain elevated. Correspondingly, even though the Company’s debt levels have remained flat, the erosion of shareholder equity from $27.5 billion at the end of 2009 to $22.6 billion at the end of 2011 has caused the Company’s total debt ratio to increase to 32.9% from 25.2%. Broader financial leverage, as measured by average assets to common equity, has increased to 10.0 times from below 7.5 times. Although reported earnings coverage is adequate to meet fixed-charge obligations, the earnings, excluding notable items coverage (largely non-cash adjustments), is in excess of 6.0 times.

MFC has many preferred share issues outstanding: MFC.PR.A (OperatingRetractible), MFC.PR.B & MFC.PR.C (DeemedRetractible), MFC.PR.D, MFC.PR.E, MFC.PR.F, MFC.PR.G and the new issue announced today, (FixedReset).

Issue Comments

VSN.PR.A Achieves Small Premium on Good Volume

Veresen Inc. has announced:

it has closed its previously announced bought deal offering of 8,000,000 Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares, Series A (“Series A Preferred Shares”) at a price of $25.00 per share (the “Offering”) for aggregate gross proceeds of $200 million. The previously announced underwriters’ option was exercised in full. The Series A Preferred Shares were offered to the public through a syndicate of underwriters with Scotiabank and TD Securities Inc. having been appointed as the bookrunners and including CIBC, RBC Capital Markets, BMO Capital Markets, National Bank Financial Inc., Canaccord Genuity Corp. and HSBC Securities (Canada) Inc.

The holders of Series A Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive fixed cumulative dividends at an annual rate of 4.40%, payable quarterly for an initial period up to but excluding September 30, 2017, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Veresen. The first quarterly dividend of $0.4117 is scheduled for June 30, 2012. The dividend rate will reset on September 30, 2017 and every five years thereafter at a rate equal to the sum of the then five-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 2.92%. The Series A Preferred Shares are redeemable by Veresen, at its option, on September 30, 2017 and on September 30 of every fifth year thereafter.

Holders of Series A Preferred Shares will have the right to convert all or any part of their shares into Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares, Series B (“Series B Preferred Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on September 30, 2017, and on September 30 of every fifth year thereafter. The holders of Series B Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating rate cumulative dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Veresen, at a rate equal to the sum of the then 90-day Government of Canada treasury bill rate plus 2.92%.

The Series A Preferred Shares have been rated Pfd-3 (High) by DBRS Limited and P-3 (High) by Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw Hill Companies, Inc. Net proceeds from the Offering will be used to reduce indebtedness, partially fund capital expenditures and for other general corporate purposes.

The Series A Preferred Shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “VSN.PR.A”.

As noted, DBRS rates this Pfd-3(high).

VSN.PR.A is a FixedReset, 4.40%+292 announced February 3.

The issue traded 532,720 shares in a tight range of 25.05-14 today before closing at 25.05-07, 44×39. Vital statistics are:

VSN.PR.A FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-02-14
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %

VSN.PR.A will be tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

New Issues

New Issue: MFC FixedReset 4.60%+313

Manulife Financial has announced:

a Canadian public offering of Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class 1 Shares Series 7 (“Series 7 Preferred Shares”). Manulife will issue 10 million Series 7 Preferred Shares priced at $25 per share to raise gross proceeds of $250 million. The offering will be underwritten by a syndicate of investment dealers co-led by Scotia Capital Inc., RBC Capital Markets and TD Securities and is anticipated to qualify as Tier 1 capital for Manulife. The expected closing date for the offering is February 22, 2012. Manulife intends to file a prospectus supplement to its September 3, 2010 base shelf prospectus in respect of this issue.

“Our capital raising activity takes into account our expected refinancing requirements and recognizes that, while our capital position remains strong, there could be pressure on our common share price and bond spreads if our capital ratios decline. We see this action as prudent when faced with uncertain market and economic conditions.” said Donald Guloien, President and CEO of Manulife.

Holders of the Series 7 Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive a non-cumulative quarterly fixed dividend yielding 4.60% annually, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Manulife, for the initial period ending March 19, 2017. Thereafter, the dividend rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 3.13%.

Holders of Series 7 Preferred Shares will have the right, at their option, to convert their shares into Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class 1 Shares Series 8 (“Series 8 Preferred Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on March 19, 2017 and on March 19 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 8 Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive non-cumulative quarterly floating dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Manulife, at a rate equal to the three-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 3.13%.

The net proceeds from the offering will be utilized for general corporate purposes, which may include investments in subsidiaries.

Manulife’s Canadian life insurance company subsidiary, The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company, also intends to issue $500 million principal amount of fixed/floating subordinated debentures. The debentures will be fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a subordinated basis by Manulife.

I am fascinated by the rationale for the issue: “Our capital raising activity takes into account our expected refinancing requirements and recognizes that, while our capital position remains strong, there could be pressure on our common share price and bond spreads if our capital ratios decline. We see this action as prudent when faced with uncertain market and economic conditions.” said Donald Guloien, President and CEO of Manulife.

That seems like an incredibly defensive thing to say and to put into the official press release.

Update: Rating affirmed in the DBRS comment on year-end.

Update: Fitch rates the Series 5 prefs BBB.

Market Action

February 13, 2012

The Greek austerity measures passed:

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos won parliamentary approval for austerity measures to secure an international bailout after rioters protesting the measures battled police and set fire to buildings in downtown Athens.

A total of 199 lawmakers voted in favor and 74 against, Parliament Speaker Filippos Petsalnikos said in remarks carried live on state-run Vouli TV. When, on Nov. 16, Papademos won a mandate from the Parliament to implement budget measures and secure the bailout of 130 billion euros ($172 billion) he received the support of 255 lawmakers in the 300-strong chamber.

“It is up to us, our vote, whether the country will remain in the euro or be led to a disorderly default,” Papademos told parliament. “Voting for the economic program and opening the road for a loan accord sets the basis for the modernization and recovery of the economy.”

OK, so parliament’s voted for it and all the senior party leaders are on board. So what? There will be elections soon – will any of the major parties now be major parties in June? There really needs to be a referendum on this, because I’m not convinced the political class can deliver.

Meanwhile Moody’s used its knife:

Moody’s Investors Service cut the debt ratings of six European countries including Italy, Spain and Portugal and revised its outlook on the U.K.’s and France’s top Aaa rating to “negative.”

Spain was downgraded to A3 from A1 with a negative outlook, Italy was downgraded to A3 from A2 with a negative outlook and Portugal was downgraded to Ba3 from Ba2 with a negative outlook, Moody’s said. It also cut Slovakia’s, Slovenia’s and Malta’s ratings.

“The uncertainty over the euro area’s prospects for institutional reform of its fiscal and economic framework” and the resources that will be made available to deal with the crisis, are among the main drivers of Moody’s action, the ratings company said.

“Europe’s increasingly weak macroeconomic prospects, which threaten the implementation of domestic austerity programs and the structural reforms that are needed to promote competitiveness,” are also factors, it said. These factors will continue to affect market confidence, “which is likely to remain fragile, with a high potential for further shocks to funding conditions for stressed sovereigns and banks.”

Call the papers! There’s been an outbreak of common sense in Europe!

The European Parliament may scrap plans to force firms that use algorithmic-trading programs to continue trading throughout the day, said Markus Ferber, the lawmaker writing the assembly’s response to the proposals. The measure was meant to prevent them creating volatility by diving in and out of the markets.

“We are really rethinking on the whole approach the European Commission has proposed,” Ferber said in an interview. The all-day trading rule was intended to promote market liquidity by ensuring a steady supply of buyers and sellers. “No one can answer me” why such firms should be expected to provide liquidity throughout the trading day, Ferber said.

Sorry, folks, but PrefLetter Weekend knocked me for a loop this time ’round. I’ll update with Monday’s performance when I get a chance.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1040 % 2,442.8
FixedFloater 4.56 % 3.93 % 39,291 17.45 1 -0.3828 % 3,417.4
Floater 2.73 % 2.99 % 62,283 19.72 3 -0.1040 % 2,637.6
OpRet 4.86 % 2.46 % 60,536 1.32 6 0.0423 % 2,515.7
SplitShare 5.28 % -0.53 % 81,644 0.82 4 0.0448 % 2,651.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0423 % 2,300.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.36 % -0.19 % 119,357 0.21 26 -0.5674 % 2,210.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.03 % 4.85 % 197,597 15.70 4 0.0926 % 2,459.6
FixedReset 5.02 % 2.68 % 217,220 2.29 65 -0.0838 % 2,393.5
Deemed-Retractible 4.90 % 3.54 % 225,355 1.77 45 -0.0959 % 2,312.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Premium -2.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-02-13
Maturity Price : 24.21
Evaluated at bid price : 24.73
Bid-YTW : 5.02 %
PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Premium -2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.25
Bid-YTW : 4.99 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Premium -1.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-02-13
Maturity Price : 24.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.02
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Premium -1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
PWF.PR.F Perpetual-Premium -1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-02-13
Maturity Price : 24.67
Evaluated at bid price : 24.93
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.95
Bid-YTW : 5.14 %
FTS.PR.E OpRet -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 27.01
Bid-YTW : 0.80 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.22
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Premium -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.37
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
FTS.PR.C OpRet 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 26.16
Bid-YTW : -26.82 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset 342,950 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 3.12 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 85,400 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.91
Bid-YTW : 3.23 %
ENB.PR.F FixedReset 80,046 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.45
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %
BNS.PR.K Deemed-Retractible 41,770 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-04-28
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.89
Bid-YTW : -1.95 %
GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 35,466 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-03-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.75
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
BNS.PR.Y FixedReset 34,975 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.32
Bid-YTW : 2.80 %
There were 34 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible Quote: 26.08 – 26.48
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2803

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.08
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 25.18 – 25.44
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1695

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-02-13
Maturity Price : 23.20
Evaluated at bid price : 25.18
Bid-YTW : 3.44 %

RY.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.78 – 25.96
Spot Rate : 0.1800
Average : 0.1009

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-11-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.78
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %

BMO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible Quote: 27.22 – 27.44
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1480

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-05-25
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.22
Bid-YTW : 1.71 %

BAM.PR.B Floater Quote: 17.70 – 17.91
Spot Rate : 0.2100
Average : 0.1383

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-02-13
Maturity Price : 17.70
Evaluated at bid price : 17.70
Bid-YTW : 2.99 %

SLF.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 24.76 – 24.97
Spot Rate : 0.2100
Average : 0.1394

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.76
Bid-YTW : 3.57 %

Issue Comments

DBRS Downgrades YLO to Pfd-5(low) Trend Negative

DBRS has announced that it:

has today downgraded Yellow Media Inc.’s (Yellow Media or the Company) Issuer Rating to B (high) from BB; its Medium-Term Notes to B (high) from BB, with an RR4 recovery rating; its Exchangeable Subordinated Debentures to B (low) from B (high), with an RR6 recovery rating; and its Cumulative Preferred Shares to Pfd-5 (low) from Pfd-4 (low). The trend on all ratings remains Negative.

Today’s downgrade reflects recent actions taken by Yellow Media that may indicate that its business transformation may take longer than previously anticipated, while its debt maturities over the medium term remain significant. DBRS believes that this may greatly restrict the Company’s ability to handle its maturing debt by means of internally generated free cash flow and, potentially, by drawing on external sources.

DBRS also notes that drawing on its revolving credit facility precludes Yellow Media from repurchasing up to $125 million of its 2013 debt maturities in the open market, as would have been allowable under its September 2011 amended credit agreement.

The Negative trend reflects the possibility that Yellow Media’s ratings could be further downgraded should the Company undertake refinancing actions that would entail some form of compromise for its existing creditors. Additionally, DBRS remains concerned that the digital transition may continue to take longer than currently anticipated and could include (1) accelerated pressure on Yellow Media’s traditional print business while digital revenue continues to grow but fails to compensate for print revenue pressure; and (2) further pressure on liquidity and free cash flow, rendering it insufficient to handle the Company’s sizable upcoming debt maturities.

YLO was last mentioned on PrefBlog in the post YLO Suspends Dividends. YLO has four issues of preferreds outstanding: YLO.PR.A and YLO.PR.B (OperatingRetractible) and YLO.PR.C and YLO.PR.D (FixedReset). All are tracked by HIMIPref™; all are relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

New Issues

New Issue: PWF 5.50% Straight

Power Financial Corporation has announced:

that it has agreed to issue 6,000,000 Non-Cumulative First Preferred Shares, Series R (the “Series R Shares”) on a bought deal basis, for gross proceeds of $150 million. The Series R Shares will be priced at $25.00 per share and will carry an annual dividend yield of 5.50%. Closing is expected on or about February 23, 2012. The issue will be underwritten by a syndicate of underwriters led by BMO Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets and Scotiabank.

Power Financial has also granted the underwriters an option to purchase an additional 2,000,000 Series R Shares at the same offering price. Should the underwriters’ option be exercised fully, the total gross proceeds of the Series R Share offering will be $200 million.

Proceeds from the issue will be used to supplement the Corporation’s financial resources and for general corporate purposes.

Update: Have heard that this has been upsized to $250-million.

Update: Confirmed.

PrefLetter

February PrefLetter Released!

The February, 2012, edition of PrefLetter has been released and is now available for purchase as the “Previous edition”. Those who subscribe for a full year receive the “Previous edition” as a bonus.

The February edition contains two appendices: the first discusses lessons to be learnt about relative valuation from price behaviour during the recent market run-up; the second updates the analysis of YLO preferreds to incorporate the company’s recent financial statements and announcements.

PrefLetter may now be purchased by all Canadian residents.

Until further notice, the “Previous Edition” will refer to the February, 2012, issue, while the “Next Edition” will be the March, 2012, issue, scheduled to be prepared as of the close March 9 and eMailed to subscribers prior to market-opening on March 12.

PrefLetter is intended for long term investors seeking issues to buy-and-hold. At least one recommendation from each of the major preferred share sectors is included and discussed.

Note: My verbosity has grown by such leaps and bounds that it is no longer possible to deliver PrefLetter as an eMail attachment – it’s just too big for my software! Instead, I have sent passwords – click on the link in your eMail and your copy will download.

Note: The PrefLetter website has a Subscriber Download Feature. If you have not received your copy, try it!

Note: PrefLetter eMails sometimes runs afoul of spam filters. If you have not received your copy within fifteen minutes of a release notice such as this one, please double check your (company’s) spam filtering policy and your spam repository – there are some hints in the post Sympatico Spam Filters out of Control. If it’s not there, contact me and I’ll get you your copy … somehow!

Note: There have been scattered complaints regarding inability to open PrefLetter in Acrobat Reader, despite my practice of including myself on the subscription list and immediately checking the copy received. I have had the occasional difficulty reading US Government documents, which I was able to resolve by downloading and installing the latest version of Adobe Reader. Also, note that so far, all complaints have been from users of Yahoo Mail. Try saving it to disk first, before attempting to open it.

Note: There have been other scattered complaints that double-clicking on the links in the “PrefLetter Download” email results in a message that the password has already been used. I have been able to reproduce this problem in my own eMail software … the problem is double-clicking. What happens is the first click opens the link and the second click finds that the password has already been used and refuses to work properly. So the moral of the story is: Don’t be a dick! Single Click!

Issue Comments

BK.PR.A: 11H1 Semi-Annual Report

Canadian Banc Corp. released its Semi-Annual Report to May 31, 2011 some time ago when it was still named Canadian Banc Recovery Corp.

Figures of interest are:

MER: The MER per unit of the Fund, excluding the cost of leverage, was 1.39% as at May 31, 2011.

Average Net Assets: Net assets were 192.0-million on 2011-5-31 and 181.6-million on 2010-11-30; average is 186.8-million.

Underlying Portfolio Yield: Total income of 3,259,530, times two (semi-annual) divided by average net assets of 186.8-million is 3.49%

Income Coverage: Net Investment Income of 1,948,474 divided by Preferred Share Distributions of 2,042,484 is 95%.

Issue Comments

SLF Downgraded, Outlook Negative, by Moody's

On January 26, Moody’s announced:

Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded the insurance financial strength (IFS) rating of Sun life Assurance Company of Canada (U.S.) (Sun Life US) — a wholly owned subsidiary of Sun Life Financial, Inc. (SLF: TLS; SLF) – to A3 from Aa3. Other affiliated U.S. ratings were also downgraded (see complete ratings list, below). Moody’s also downgraded the preferred stock rating of SLF to Baa3 (hyb) from Baa2 (hyb), but affirmed the Aa3 IFS rating of SLF’s Canadian insurance subsidiary, Sun Life Assurance Company of Canada (SLA), as well as the ratings of other Canadian affiliates. The outlook on all ratings of SLF and its Canadian and U.S. affiliates is negative. The action concludes a review for possible downgrade of Sun Life US and its affiliates, initiated on October 18, 2011.

Commenting on the downgrade of the SLF preferred rating to Baa3 (hyb) from Baa2 (hyb), Moody’s said that it reflects a widening of the typical 3-notch differential that previously existed between SLF’s implied senior debt rating and the Aa3 IFS rating of SLA, because of: 1) the weakening of the stand-alone credit profile of Sun Life US; and 2) the credit profiles of SLF’s other key operating subsidiaries (i.e., MFS; UK insurance, and Asia insurance — not rated by Moody’s), which are relatively weaker than the Aa3 IFS rating on SLA. In addition, SLF’s financial flexibility has diminished due to the significant accounting charges taken during 2011 — mostly associated with the problematic Sun Life US business — which have reduced SLF’s capital, increased its financial leverage, and decreased its debt service coverage ratios.

Commenting on the negative outlook for the entire SLF group, the rating agency noted its concerns related to the execution risks of the runoff strategy for the U.S. businesses and that any further charges arising from Sun Life US’ and the U.S. branch’s closed blocks would remain a drag on SLF’s consolidated earnings, and possibly SLA’s earnings. The negative outlook on SLA also reflects the potential of additional capital support being needed at Sun Life US. Furthermore, there is uncertainty about the timing for SLF to lower its currently elevated financial leverage, as well as future capital releases from Sun Life US to SLF and the profitability of the remaining employee benefits and voluntary product businesses at the U.S. branch, now that its life insurance business and the U.S. subsidiary’s operations are in run-off.

Moody’s stated that SLF expects run rate expenses for the U.S. subsidiary to be reduced by $160 -$180 million annually, and capital to be released over time. “This strategy is not without execution risk, however, and waiting to see at least a few quarters of experience before addressing the outlook for the organization as a whole is appropriate at this time”, Beattie added.

SLF has a lot of preferreds outstanding: SLF.PR.A, SLF.PR.B, SLF.PR.C, SLF.PR.D and SLF.PR.E (DeemedRetractible) as well as SLF.PR.F, SLF.PR.G, SLF.PR.H and SLF.PR.I (FixedReset). All are tracked by HIMIPref™ and all are assigned to the indices noted.

PrefLetter

February PrefLetter Now in Preparation!

The markets have closed and the February edition of PrefLetter is now being prepared.

PrefLetter is the monthly newsletter recommending individual issues of preferred shares to subscribers. There is at least one recommendation from every major type of preferred share with investment-grade constituents. The recommendations are taylored for “buy-and-hold” investors.

The February edition will contain two appendices: one reviewing lessons to be learned from the recent dramatic run-up in the prices of insurance company issued DeemedRetractibles, and of the simultaneous rise in Straight Perpetuals; the second will review the recent decision of YLO to suspend its preferred share dividend.

Those taking an annual subscription to PrefLetter receive a discount on viewing of my seminars.

PrefLetter is now available to all residents of Canada.

The February issue will be eMailed to clients and available for single-issue purchase with immediate delivery prior to the opening bell on Monday. I will write another post when the new issue has been uploaded to the server … so watch this space carefully if you intend to order “Next Issue” or “Previous Issue”! Until then, the “Next Issue” is the February issue.