PrefBlog

Today’s cheerful credit news is about Japan:

Standard & Poor’s said Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s administration hasn’t made progress in tackling the public debt burden, an indication it may be preparing to lower the nation’s sovereign grade.

“Japan’s finances are getting worse and worse every day, every second,” Takahira Ogawa, director of sovereign ratings at S&P in Singapore, said in an interview. Asked if that means he’s closer to cutting Japan, he said it “may be right in saying that we’re closer to a downgrade. But the deterioration has been gradual so far, and it’s not like we’re going to move today.”

Meanwhile, in Europe:

Stocks fell, Italian bonds declined and the cost of insuring European government debt against default rose to a record after German Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out joint euro-area borrowing.
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The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond climbed 14 basis points to 7.11 percent, while similar-maturity French debt yields rose three basis points to 3.72 percent.

Portugal’s bonds fell, with 10-year note yields climbing 90 basis points to 12.21 percent after Fitch Ratings cut the nation’s credit grade one step to BB+, the highest junk status.

Germany’s 10-year bond yield rose as much as 12 basis points to 2.26 percent before trading five basis points higher at 2.20 percent. Two-year note yields increased three basis points to 0.47 percent.

The Royal Canadian Mint’s gold receipt IPO appears to be going very well:

The Royal Canadian Mint raised C$600 million ($573 million) in an initial public offering of securities tied to its gold reserves, more than double its IPO target, according to two people familiar with the sale.

The mint initially sought to raise C$250 million from selling units in Canadian or U.S. dollars at C$20 or $19.29 each, the Ottawa-based firm said. Strong demand from institutional and individual investors drove up the size of the sale, said the people, who declined to be named because terms aren’t public.
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Each exchange-traded receipt represents ownership in physical gold bullion held in custody of the Royal Canadian Mint. Proceeds from the sale will be used to buy gold, and the buyers of the receipts will own the metal rather than a stake in the mint, according to an Oct. 28 statement.

Huxley said “History is bunk.” Moody’s says Hungary is junk:

Hungary lost its investment-grade rating at Moody’s Investors Service after 15 years as the Cabinet seeks International Monetary Fund help to boost confidence in the European Union’s most-indebted eastern member.

The foreign- and local-currency bond ratings were cut one step to Ba1, the highest junk-level score, from Baa3, the company said today in a statement. Moody’s, which awarded Hungary its investment grade in 1996, assigned a negative outlook. The country is rated the lowest investment grade at Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings.

The government has scrapped two debt sales and reduced the size of another eight auctions in the last three months as the euro region’s debt crisis deepened. Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Cabinet on Nov. 17 asked for IMF “insurance” that doesn’t entail a loan and doesn’t impose conditions.

It was a rough day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 24bp, FixedResets down 13bp and DeemedRetractibles off 8bp. Not much volatility. Volume was very light – not unexpectedly, what with the US turkeys.

Remember Iceland? The first domino? It’s through the worst of it, according to S&P:

Iceland had its credit rating outlook revised to stable from negative by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, which cited economic growth in the country after two years of “severe contraction.”

“Significant headway has been made in restructuring the private-sector balance sheet and we expect the process to be mostly completed by mid-2012,” S&P said. The BBB-/A-3 sovereign ratings were affirmed.

But other dominoes are toppling:

Germany failed to get bids for 35 percent of the 10-year bonds offered for sale today, propelling borrowing costs in Europe higher and the euro lower on concern the region’s debt crisis is driving away investors.
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The yield on Germany’s 2.25 percent securities maturing in September 2021 climbed 15 basis points to 2.06 percent at 4:46 p.m. London time.
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Belgian 10-year yields surged 41 basis points to 5.48 percent, after reaching 5.53 percent, the highest since November 2000. French 10-year bond yields climbed 16 basis points to 3.69 percent. The yield on Greek two-year notes jumped to more than 120 percent for the first time, before slipping back to 116.59 percent.

Total bids at the auction of securities due in January 2022 amounted to 3.889 billion euros, out of a maximum target for the sale of 6 billion euros, according to Bundesbank data.

Six of the last eight bond sales by Germany have been “technically uncovered,” with fewer bids than the maximum amount on offer, Norbert Aul, a rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London, said in an e-mailed note.

Under the German auction system, the central bank retains securities at sales for the secondary market. In today’s offering, the debt agency allotted 3.644 billion euros of the securities, leaving the Bundesbank to retain 2.356 billion euros, or 39 percent of the supply. That’s the highest proportion of unsold debt at a 10-year sale since 1995, according to Bloomberg data. The securities were sold at an average yield of 1.98 percent. In the secondary market, the rate rose to 2.13 percent.

DBRS confirmed Westcoast at Pfd-2(low):

DBRS has today confirmed the Unsecured Debentures, First Preferred Shares and Commercial Paper ratings of Westcoast Energy Inc. (Westcoast or the Company) at A (low), Pfd-2 (low) and R-1 (low), respectively, all with Stable trends.
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On a consolidated basis (excluding the intercompany transaction), the Company’s external debt-to-capital ratio (52% at September 30, 2011; 54% at year-end 2008) and cash flow-to-external debt (19% for both the 12 months ending September 30, 2011, and in 2008) were relatively unchanged, while external fixed charges coverage (2.8 times, up from 2.5 times) improved marginally, partly due to contributions from expansions placed in service as noted above.

On a non-consolidated basis, Westcoast’s direct ownership of BCPFS fully supports its ability to meet its direct debt obligations. Its credit metrics are enhanced by cash dividends from several sources, the largest of which is Union Gas, which generate approximately 50% of the Company’s non-consolidated cash flow. Excluding the intercompany transaction, Westcoast’s non-consolidated external debt-to-capital ratio increased to 36% in 2010 from 32% in 2008, while cash flow-to-external debt (25%, up from 16%) and external fixed charges coverage (3.2 times, up from 2.2 times) improved significantly, mainly as a result of contributions from expansions noted above.

TMX DataLinx has collywobbles yet again, so this report is being prepared with Yahoo! data.

It was a rough day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 9bp, FixedResets off 12bp and DeemedRetractibles losing 14bp. All five entries in the Performance Highlights table were losers. Volume was average.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.15% (this figure is somewhat distorted by the fact that five of the seventeen issues are actually at a premium now and another two are bang-on par; the index is only rebalanced monthly), equivalent to 6.70% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long Corporates are now at about 4.75%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 195bp, tightening a bit (perhaps spuriously) from the 205bp reported November 16.

The SEC’s campaign to create a society of paid informers is proving remarkably successful:

Bounty-hunting corporate tipsters are filing reports of potential wrongdoing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission at a rate of about seven per day, according to the first progress report from the agency’s new whistle-blower program.

The public snapshot released last week counted 334 tips in the first 50 days after the program — revamped under the Dodd- Frank Act — became fully operational on Aug. 12.

The program gives whistle-blowers a share of proceeds if their tips lead to more than $1 million in penalties. So far, the top three categories of tips are those alleging market manipulation, problems with public disclosure or fraud in offerings.

I hope they’re managing it all right. I’m sure there’s still lots of ex-officers around from the East German STASI – perhaps they can be recruited as case managers.

The Fed’s stress test is … stressful:

The Federal Reserve told the 31 largest U.S. banks to test their loan portfolios and trading books against a deep recession and a European market shock to ensure they have enough capital to withstand losses.

The most severe test scenarios outlined by the Fed today include an unemployment rate of as much as 13 percent, an 8 percent drop in gross domestic product and a 21 percent plunge in home prices.
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The Fed will also publish the results of the tests for the 19 largest bank holding companies. Six institutions with large trading operations will have to estimate potential losses from a hypothetical “global market shock,” the Fed said. That shock will be based on market price movements seen during the second half of 2008, it said, and include a scenario involving “sharp market price movements in European sovereign and financial sectors.”

The Fed said it would publish the results of the market shock scenario of the six institutions: Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Company.
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The Fed said it would approve dividend increases and other capital distributions “only for companies whose capital plans are approved by supervisors and are able to demonstrate sufficient financial strength to operate as successful financial intermediaries under stressed macroeconomic and financial market scenarios.”

It was a mild day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 2bp, FixedResets gaining 2bp and DeemedRetractibles winning 4bp. The Performance Highlights table was very short, with only three entries. Volume was average.

More evidence that the EU should be insisting on a Greek referendum, not forbidding one:

The world’s leading financiers are betting they can prevent bankruptcy in Greece with a bailout deal that will force strict austerity on its citizens, but that plan does not account for stubborn people like Olga Katimertzis.

The 58-year-old has served as a deputy mayor in the Athens suburb of Nea Ionia for more than three decades, and she embodies the way this country has started to fight itself. Wearing an old leather jacket in her chilly office, and chain-smoking cigarettes, she proudly describes how her municipality is offering free legal advice to anybody who refuses to pay new taxes imposed by the central government. Her offices are even organizing human barricades to prevent the electrical utility from disconnecting people who fall behind on their bills.

The MF Global receivership is heating up a little:

MF Global Inc.’s shortfall in U.S. segregated customer accounts may exceed $1.2 billion, more than double what was previously expected, said the trustee overseeing a liquidation of the failed brokerage run by former New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine.

That would mean customer accounts are missing about 22 percent of their total of $5.4 billion. A shortfall of 11 percent had been previously estimated by a person with knowledge of probes into the firm’s collapse. James Giddens, the trustee, said today that forensic accountants and investigators are working “around the clock,” and the estimate may change.
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The CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission are also investigating cash movements at the firm before the bankruptcy filing. Regulators haven’t located the money.

The estimated amount of the shortfall has fluctuated. Examiners from CME Group Inc., the world’s largest futures exchange, found unexplained wire transfers at MF Global Inc. and a $900 million shortfall in client funds during the weekend the failing broker was talking with possible buyers, a person briefed on the matter said.

I’m still having a hard time taking this seriously. The first thing a liquidator does after being appointed by regulators is vilify ex-management – this not only makes him a hero when he announces he’s got all the money, but keeps him on good terms with the regulator who appointed him, so he’ll be in line for the next appointment as well. I note that the phrases “unexplained wire transfers” and “$900 million shortfall” are indeed in the same sentence in the quoted report, but are not directly connected. Ah, well, we will see!

The US is still not serious about deficit reduction:

A special debt-reduction committee in the U.S. Congress failed to reach agreement, extending partisan gridlock into the 2012 election year and setting the stage for $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts.

President Barack Obama blamed Republicans, saying in remarks at the White House they “refused to listen to the voices of reason and compromise.” The president said he would veto any move to avoid the automatic spending cuts that are supposed to start in 2013 as a result of panel’s failure.

Committee co-chairmen Representative Jeb Hensarling of Texas, a Republican, and Senator Patty Murray of Washington, a Democrat, said in an e-mailed statement that “after months of hard work and intense deliberations, we have come to the conclusion today that it will not be possible to make any bipartisan agreement available to the public before the committee’s deadline.”

As we’ve seen in Europe (and as we saw in Canada in 1994) nobody takes deficit reduction seriously until the market starts giving them major problems.

The Star had a good article on milkfare on Sunday, with a link to a restaurant industry website advocating reform, which contained a further link to a Facebook page advocating reform. The comments on the page are dominated by milkfare recipients and their fellow travellers – which only makes sense, considering that the benefits to the few are charged to the many – but I’m engaged in an interesting debate on one of the posts, anyway. Eventually, I hope, all participants on that thread will agree to the rough equation:

Canadian Milk Price = Free Market Price + Cost of Quota + Unearned Rents

… which, since they will insist that Unearned Rents = 0, will resolve to

Canadian Milk Price = Free Market Price + Cost of Quota

at which point maybe we can start getting somewhere. Milkfare was an appalling policy blunder which has only gotten worse since inception: it’s time for the politicians to ‘fess up to the fact that it ain’t working and move to a free market with compensation to farmers for loss of quota value.

Spread the word! What is really needed is a non-partisan campaign during the next election, urging all voters to ask the candidates what they will do to end milkfare. If Ontario gets eightteen more urban seats in the coming redistribution, that can only help the effort!

Wow, man … Cooler-ado is a happenin’ place, you know?:

There are currently 16 states that allow some form of legalized medical marijuana, Bloomberg Businessweek reports in its Nov. 21 edition. Only Colorado allows marijuana businesses to operate as such. It’s the first, and for the moment, only, for-profit marijuana marketplace in the U.S.

Predictably, Colorado is in the midst of a marijuana boom. From 2000, when Colorado voters legalized marijuana for medicinal purposes with Amendment 20, to 2008, Colorado issued roughly 2,000 medical marijuana cards to patients living in the state. By 2011 that number had jumped to over 127,000 paying customers, according to the Colorado Medical Marijuana Registry, and at least 25,000 more have applications pending.

Assiduous Reader BG sends me an interesting article titled Will WiFi Kill Us All, which discusses the long-term health risks associated with heavy exposure to cell ‘phones and WiFi electromagnetic radiation. I don’t buy it myself – I think the author has just experienced a placebo effect – but who knows? Something is behind the explosion in autism, peanut allergies, senile dementia (which may just be because we’re living longer, I don’t know) and alien abductions, but we don’t know what. I subscribe to the “soup theory” myself – simply that we now live in an environment where there’s lots of interesting chemicals and influences which have never existed before. A one-in-a-million chance is pretty minor, but if you take a million of ’em, you’re likely to get burnt.

DBRS confirmed TDS.PR.C at Pfd-2(low).

Today’s report is being made with Yahoo! prices because TMX DataLinx has colly-wobbles again.

It was a down day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 1bp, FixedResets off 9bp and DeemedRetractibles losing 12bp. All entries on the Performance Highlights table were losers. Volume was light.