L.PR.A Goes Stale on Shelf

June 20th, 2008

Loblaw’s has announced:

the completion today of the sale of 9.0 million cumulative redeemable convertible Second Preferred Shares, Series A, to yield 5.95% per annum, to a syndicate of underwriters co-led by RBC Dominion Securities Inc. and CIBC World Markets Inc. for distribution to the public. The aggregate gross proceeds of the sale were $225 million. The Preferred Shares, Series A have been listed and posted to trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “L.PR.A”.

The announcement of this issue was reported on PrefBlog with the opinion:

This issue looks expensive.

It would appear the market agrees! The terms of the greenshoe were that the option had to be exercised prior to closing; but the size shown in the current press release indicates that the extra shares have not been issued.

It was a thoroughly pathetic opening day, with 4,448 shares trading in a range of 24.70-90, closing at 24.00-70, 10×52. The underwriters didn’t pretend to support the issue; at one point today the bid was 23.00.

More later.

Later, more:At $24.00, it doesn’t look so bad … but it’s scarcely an inventory blow-out sale!

Bear in mind that Pfd-3 issues (regardless of modifier) are considerably less liquid than they would be if they were higher grade. They will also tend to trade with higher correlation to the company’s common than they would otherwise; they are more equity-like than higher grade issues, both in theory and practice. I do not recommend a weighting of more than 10% total Pfd-3 issues in a diversified preferred share portfolio, with no more than 5% in any one name; have more than this if you like, but I will consider your portfolio to be “equity-substitute” rather than “fixed-income”.

Loblaw New Issue
and Some Comparators
Ticker DBRS
Rating
Current
Quote
Retraction
Date
Yield
to
Retraction
(at bid)
L.PR.A Pfd-3 24.00-70 2015-7-30

6.81%
BPO.PR.K Pfd-3(high) 22.60-69 2016-12-30 6.72%
YPG.PR.B Pfd-3(high) 20.30-85 2017-6-29 8.00%
DW.PR.A Pfd-3 22.00-24 2017-3-12 6.60%

ALB.PR.A Rating of Pfd-2(low) Confirmed by DBRS

June 20th, 2008

The credit rating of Allbanc Split Corp. II has been confirmed by DBRS:

DBRS has today confirmed the Preferred Shares issued by Allbanc Split Corp. II (the Company) at Pfd-2 (low) with a Stable trend. The rating has been removed from Under Review with Developing Implications where it was placed on March 19, 2008.

In February 2006, the Company raised gross proceeds of approximately $322 million by issuing 6.73 million Preferred Shares at $25.00 each and 13.46 million Capital Shares at $11.40 each. The net proceeds from the offering were invested in a portfolio of common shares (the Portfolio Shares) of the top six Canadian chartered banks: Bank of Montreal (19%), Bank of Nova Scotia (19%), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (19%), Royal Bank of Canada (19%), The Toronto-Dominion Bank (19%) and National Bank of Canada (5%). The initial split share structure provided downside protection of approximately 45% to the Preferred Shares (after expenses).

The holders of the Preferred Shares receive fixed cumulative quarterly distributions equal to 4.25% per annum. The fixed distributions of dividends on the Preferred Shares are funded from the dividends received on the Portfolio Shares and, if necessary, with proceeds from the sale of Portfolio Shares or from covered call option premium income as determined by the board of directors. The current yield on the Portfolio Shares fully covers the Preferred Shares dividends, providing dividend coverage of approximately 1.6 times. Excess dividends net of all expenses of the Company are paid as dividends on the Capital Shares or re-invested by the Company in additional Portfolio Shares as determined by the board of directors of the Company.

The Company’s net asset value has experienced downward pressure over the past year, dropping from $52.86 to $42.87, a decline of about 19%. The current downside protection available to the Preferred Shareholders is approximately 41% (as of June 12, 2008). The confirmation of the Preferred Shares is based on the current level of asset coverage available to cover the Preferred Shares principal, the high dividend coverage ratio and the strong credit quality of the banks included in the Portfolio.

The redemption date for both classes of shares issued is February 28, 2011.

This would not normally be considered newsworthy, but I am tracking the effects of the DBRS mass review of financial split-shares. On 3/13, the asset coverage ratio was 1.6:1; as of June 19, the coverage is 1.7:1.

ALB.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™ and is incorporated in the Split-Share Index.

Update: See also previous post for ALB.PR.A.

BCE Wins Supreme Court Appeal

June 20th, 2008

From Bloomberg:

The Supreme Court of Canada, in a unanimous ruling in Ottawa today, overturned a decision of the Quebec Court of Appeal that had derailed BCE’s plan for having ignored the interests of the company’s bondholders.

The decision removes one hurdle to closing the purchase of Montreal-based BCE, Canada’s biggest phone company, by Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and U.S. private-equity firms. Completion isn’t certain, as banks have sought to renegotiate terms of debt in LBOs amid a contraction in credit markets, seeking higher interest rates and tighter loan restrictions, and derailing more than 60 buyout plans since last year.

DBRS has announced:

its current ratings on BCE Inc. (BCE or the Company) and Bell Canada continue to remain Under Review with Negative Implications following today’s unanimous judgment by the Supreme Court of Canada which will allow the planned privatization to proceed.

The ratings were originally placed Under Review with Negative Implications on April 17, 2007. This was maintained after the privatization plan was announced on June 30, 2007. The plan is led by an investor group that includes Teachers’ Private Capital, a division of the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, and includes Providence Equity Partners Inc. and Madison Dearborn Partners, LLC. Subsequently, Merrill Lynch took up an equity commitment. Collectively the sponsors have committed to invest $7.75 billion in equity to fund this transaction.

DBRS will maintain its review while it continues its discussions with BCE and the investor group. As a closing date approaches, DBRS will resolve this status with rating guidance based on the final terms of the transaction and its new Leveraged Finance rating methodology.

DBRS’s new methodology uses the default rating and a new Recovery Ratings scale to determine an instrument rating for each piece of new and existing indebtedness. The resulting ratings will likely cover multiple notches, ranging well above and below an Issuer Rating that could be in the lower end of the BB range.

Cumulative Tier 1 Interest?

June 20th, 2008

Hybrid instruments (usually referred to on PrefBlog as “Innovative Tier 1 Capital” due to the Canadian connection; on a global basis, the term “hybrid” includes “non-innovative” hybrids and also such terms as “additional own funds” and “ancillary own funds”) achieved recognition in the BIS Sydney Press Release of October 27, 1998, “Instruments Eligible for Inclusion in Tier 1 Capital”:

The Basle Committee on Banking Supervision has taken note that over the past years some banks have issued a range of innovative capital instruments, such as instruments with step-ups, with the aim of generating Tier 1 regulatory capital that is both cost-efficient and can be denominated, if necessary, in non-local currency. The Committee has carefully observed these developments and at its meeting on 21st October 1998 decided to limit acceptance of these instruments for inclusion in Tier 1 capital. Such instruments will be subject to stringent conditions and limited to a maximum of 15% of Tier 1 capital.

In order to protect the integrity of Tier 1 capital, the Committee has determined that minority interests in equity accounts of consolidated subsidiaries that take the form of SPVs should only be included in Tier 1 capital if the underlying instrument meets the following requirements which must, at a minimum, be fulfilled by all instruments included in Tier 1:

  • issued and fully paid;
  • non-cumulative;
  • able to absorb losses within the bank on a going-concern basis;
  • junior to depositors, general creditors, and subordinated debt of the bank;
  • permanent;
  • neither be secured nor covered by a guarantee of the issuer or related entity or other arrangement that legally or economically enhances the seniority of the claim vis-à-vis bank creditors;
  • and callable at the initiative of the issuer only after a minimum of five years with supervisory approval and under the condition that it will be replaced with capital of same or better quality unless the supervisor determines that the bank has capital that is more than adequate to its risks.

As careful readers of the back pages of the financial press may remember, we are now experiencing a Credit Crunch, that got rolling in a big way in August 2007, seems to have peaked in March 2008 with the near-death experience of Bear Stearns and … still continues. With this in mind, the Committee of European Banking Supervisors has – after drafting a proposal and obtaining comments from the players, published a Proposal for a common EU definition of Tier 1 hybrids, advice which was solicited from them by the European Commission:

29. The main features of the instrument (including whether it is grandfathered), the proportion of Tier 1 capital it accounts for must be periodically and publicly disclosed by the issuer. The main features of the instrument must be easily understood.

30. Moreover, the three economic characteristics must all be fulfilled at the same time – loss absorbency, permanence and ability of the issuer to cancel payments.

34. The instrument helps to prevent insolvency if the following conditions are met :
• the instrument is permanent;
• the issuer has the flexibility to cancel coupon/dividend payment;
• the instrument would not be taken into account for the purposes of determining whether the institution is insolvent; and
• the holder of the instrument cannot be in a position to petition for insolvency.

46. Issuers must be able to waive payments on a non-cumulative basis and for an unlimited period of time whenever necessary.

47. If the institution is in breach of its minimum capital requirements (or another level defined by the supervisor) then it must waive payments.

48. In addition, no provision in the terms of the hybrid instrument may prevent the supervisors from requiring institutions to waive payments at their discretion based on the financial situation of the institution.

49. Dividend pushers are acceptable but must be waived when either of the supervisory events mentioned above occurs between the date the coupon is pushed and the date it is to be paid. Under those circumstances, payment of the coupons will be forfeited and no longer be due and payable by the issuer.

50. The instrument is not cumulative in kind or in cash: any coupon or distribution not paid by the issuer is forfeited and is no longer due and payable by the issuer.

51. The issuer must have full access to waived payments.

52. Alternative Coupon Satisfaction Mechanisms are permitted only in cases where the issuer has full discretion over the payment of the coupons or dividends at all times, and only if the ACSM achieves the same result as a cancellation of coupon (i.e. there is no decrease in capital). To meet this condition, the deferred coupons must be contributed without delay to the capital of the issuer in exchange for newly issued shares having an aggregate fair value equal to the amount of the coupon/dividend. The obligation of the institution is limited to the issue of the shares. Hence, the issuer must have already authorised and unissued shares. The shares may be, afterwards, sold in the market but the institution must not be committed to find investors for these shares. If the sales proceeds are less than the coupon, the issuer must not be obliged to issue further new shares to cover the loss incurred by the hybrid holders.

53. Distributions can only be paid out of distributable items; where distributions are pre-set they may not be reset based on the credit standing of the issuer.

58.
Under both options, the limit for innovative hybrid instruments would be at all times 15% of total Tier 1 capital after specific Tier 1 deductions (but without taking into account deductions from original and additional own funds). The 15% would be included in the assessment of the limits above.

Further, paragraph 64 of the CEBS paper reports that 89% of Europe’s Innovative Instruments are non-cumulative; while:

65. The small percentage of cumulative instruments with payment in cash includes grandfathered issues of silent partnerships in Germany and a few non-innovative and innovative grandfathered instruments in Ireland and Denmark. The small percentage of cumulative instruments with payment in kind includes mostly innovative and non-innovative instruments in the United Kingdom.

66. Direct issues of perpetual non-cumulative preference shares never incorporate cumulative features, be it in cash or in kind.

67. Coupon payments in kind, often called Alternative Coupon Satisfaction Mechanisms (ACSM) 7, mean that the issuer can satisfy the coupon payment in the form of shares (as opposed to cash).

68. Instruments with this feature only account for a small part of the total but are, for tax reasons, significant in some jurisdictions, notably in the United Kingdom, Belgium and the Netherlands. A few grandfathered issues have been reported in Ireland and Austria.

A “dividend pusher” is defined in paragraph 83.

CEBS does consider the question of ACSM:

91. Therefore ACSM is only acceptable if it achieves the same result as a cancellation of the coupon (i.e. there is no decrease in capital) and when the issuer has full discretion over the payment of the coupons or dividends at all times. To meet this condition, the deferred coupons must be satisfied without delay using newly issued shares that have an aggregate fair value equal to the amount for the coupon/dividend. The obligation of the institution is limited to the issue of shares. The issuer must already have authorised and unissued shares. The shares may be, afterwards, sold in the market but the institution must not be committed to find investors for these shares. If the sales proceeds are less than the coupon, the issuer must not be obliged to issue further new shares to cover the loss incurred by the hybrid holder.

It would appear that the recent OSFI draft advisory on Tier 1 capital is – grudgingly – in accordance with the results of CEBS discussion, with respect to cumulativity.

It should be noted that “in accordance” does not mean the same thing as “good”. It is my understanding that the OSFI advisory is intended to allow the issuance of Innovative Tier 1 Qualifying capital despite the “Hallowe’en Massacre” Income trust legislation that changed all the rules.

Chris Van Loan of Blakes wrote a paper “The October 31, 2006 Income Trust Proposals and Innovative Tier 1 Instruments” (not available online). In the introduction, he makes the point:

a trust … would use the proceeds from issuing [Innovative Tier 1 instruments] to either purchase loans and debt obligations from the relevant financial institution (an “Asset-Based Structure”) or to make a loan to such financial institution (a “Loan-Based Structure”).

For example, the most recent Innovative Tier 1 Instrument was RBC TruCS – Series 2008-1:

The gross proceeds to the Trust from the Offering of $500,000,000 will be used to fund the acquisition by the Trust of Trust Assets from the Bank.

The Trust’s objective is to acquire and hold the Trust Assets that will generate net income for distribution to holders of Trust Securities. The Trust Assets consist primarily of: (i) Mortgage Co-Ownership Interests (as defined herein) in one or more pools of Residential Mortgages (as defined herein) originated by the Bank or its affiliates; or (ii) Mortgage-Backed Securities (as defined herein).

… whereas, in the case of RBC TruCS — Series 2013:

The gross proceeds from the Offering of approximately $900,000,000 will be used by the Trust to acquire the Bank Deposit Note from the Bank.

The Loan Based Structure – exemplified by the 2013 TruCS – had a variety of legal kerfuffles described by Mr. Van Loan, but “just as the world seemed safe again for Loan-Based Structures, the SIFT Proposals would seem to have thrown yet another roadblock in the way of these innovative Tier 1 instruments”. Under the Hallowe’en Massacre rules:

A trust that is a SIFT [Specified Investment Flow-Throughs] will not be permitted to deduct certain otherwise deductible amounts distributed to unitholders which distributions will be subject to a special rate of tax meant to approximate the federal-provincial corporate income tax rate.

OK, so is the trust (issuing the TruCS) a SIFT? One of the conditions is that it holds one or more “non-portfolio properties” … and a deposit note from the bank that created and controls the trust is considered to be a “non-portfolio property”. Accordingly:

the SPV would be required to pay the special tax on such non-portfolio earnings and holders of the Capital Trust Securities receiving distributions from the SPV out of such earnings would be taxed as if they had received dividends from taxable Canadian corporations

Not a problem for taxable holders. Big problem for non-taxable holders, such as pension funds. End of Loan-Based Innovative Tier 1 Capital. Thank you, Mr. Flaherty.

Mr. Van Loan notes that representations have been made to the Ministry of Finance to fix up the law, but the actions of OFSI indicate – to me – that these representations have been unsuccessful.

But we know – from Royal Bank’s issuance of “RBC TruCS – Series 2008-1” – that the banks can and will issue Asset Backed Innovative Tier 1 Capital. I will confess that I don’t know whether such issuance will count against their limit on covered bonds. It might; it might not. But at any rate, the OSFI advisory seems to specifically target the issuance of Loan-backed Innovative Tier 1 Capital.

Now we get to the question that has been puzzling indefatigable Assiduous Readers all along – why should I care? Well … let’s have a look at Bank Capital for 2Q08 and drill down to RY Capitalization: 2Q08. Look at that. 15% of their capital is in the form of Innovative Tier 1 Instruments.

Let us assume that RY gets into trouble. Some might consider this to be far-fetched … but as fixed-income investors, this is the basic thing we worry about. How safe is our capital? How likely are the dividends to continue without pause? We don’t mind day-to-day market fluctuations so much, and as preferred share investors we’re willing to take more risk than exists with, say, sub-debt or deposit notes … but we want to know what our risks are. This is considered prudent.

So RY gets into trouble at a time when … as may eventually be the case given the nature of the OSFI advisory … the maximum 15% of its Tier 1 Capital is comprised of Tier 1 instruments with a cumulative coupon. Dividends on both common and preferreds during this period are lost and gone, but we’ll just have to hope the bank works out its difficulties and dividends start up again soon.

15% of tier 1 capital has a cumulative coupon, paid in kind (ACSM) with preferred shares. Let’s say the penalty rate on this capital is 6.66%, just to make the numbers easier. Therefore, every year during this period, preferred shares are accumulating at a rate of 1% of Tier 1 capital. RY has 23.3-billion of Tier 1 capital at the moment (in times of stress, presumably, it would have declined due to write-offs), so we can call that $230-million-worth of preferred shares accumulating during the stress period. An entire new issue. Additionally, we consider the fact that preferreds make up only 10% of RY’s Tier 1 capital: so one-tenth of the entire outstanding preferred share float will be accumulating every year.

This is a lot of dilution, and it’s potential dilution that did not exist prior to the new OSFI advisory. And, just to make sure that preferred shareholders get their faces thoroughly kicked in, it’s a pretty good bet that the happy recipients of the cumulated preferred shares will dump them immediately upon receipt – killing a market that should be in the early stages of tremulous recovery at that point.

This is not just a selfish concern about the value of extant investments in the preferred market. In the current Credit Crunch, we’ve seen a lot of issuance of preferreds, convertible and otherwise, by banks that have been badly hurt. The dilutive effect of the cumulated coupons will make it harder for a wounded bank to take that route and crawl out of its hole – so it’s a prudential concern.

So, to review:

  • Banks can currently issue Asset Backed Innovative Tier 1 Capital
  • The Hallowe’en Massacre eliminated their ability to issue Loan Backed Innovative Tier 1 Capital (LBIT1C)
  • The OSFI Advisory restores their ability to issue LBIT1C
  • The OSFI Advisory, with respect to cumulativity, is just barely within international standards
  • The OSFI Advisory has made the world a slightly scarier place for preferred share investors
  • The OSFI Advisory makes it somewhat easier for banks to obtain Tier 1 capital in good times, at the expense of making it harder to obtain such capital in bad times
  • There has been no public discussion of the OSFI Advisory

It is thoroughly outrageous that OSFI feels empowered to make such far-reaching – and unnecessary – changes to bank capitalization rules without discussion.

OSFI does not meet international standards for transparency.

June 19, 2008

June 19th, 2008

Accrued Interest has posted a good piece about CDS clearing and exposures; I have added the link to my discussion of his prior post on the issue.

OSFI has, essentially, banned “Global Market Disruption” lines of credit, which have been much discussed since non-bank ABCP sponsors found out just how little liquidity they actually provided. Banned? Well, not in so many words. But the credit conversion factor is now the same as a guaranteed line; therefore, the cost to the bank (in terms of capital when the line’s undrawn) will be the same; therefore it seems highly unlikely that anybody will ever want one. It’s an interesting issue and OSFI has included a fair bit of discussion with the advisory. I’ll try to review the rule change … soon!

Practically a return to good times today … PerpetualDiscounts were down only 40bp! Their pre-tax bid-YTW now averages 6.09%; at the standard factor of 1.4x, this is equivalent to 8.53% interest. Those feverishly updating their historical yield spread graphs will note that 30-year Canadas are now at 4.18% and long Corporates at a little over 6.10% … so call Canadas/Corporates at 195bp and preferreds/corporates at 240. This is a thoroughly bizarre market.

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.19% 4.20% 53,460 17.02 1 0.0000% 1,115.0
Fixed-Floater 5.01% 4.80% 61,685 15.90 7 -1.1266% 998.8
Floater 4.02% 4.02% 70,782 17.39 2 +0.7315% 951.9
Op. Retract 4.85% 2.52% 87,648 2.55 15 -0.0097% 1,055.4
Split-Share 5.31% 5.67% 69,455 4.15 15 -0.2410% 1,048.1
Interest Bearing 6.09% 3.56% 48,552 2.02 3 -0.0327% 1,124.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.96% 4.81% 366,149 11.08 13 -0.1660% 1,007.2
Perpetual-Discount 6.02% 6.09% 222,572 13.74 59 -0.3954% 871.9
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BCE.PR.C FixFloat -3.9721%  
BNA.PR.C SplitShare -3.3168% Asset coverage of just under 3.6:1 as of May 30, according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.44% based on a bid of 19.53 and a hardMaturity 2019-1-10 at 25.00. Compare with BNA.PR.A (6.16% to 2010-9-30) and BNA.PR.B (8.49% to 2016-3-25).
IAG.PR.A PerpetualDiscount -2.8243% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.22% based on a bid of 18.58 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.F PerpetualDiscount -2.6697% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.21% based on a bid of 21.51 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.A FixFloat -2.5597%  
POW.PR.C PerpetualDiscount -2.2047% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.17% based on a bid of 23.51 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.N PerpetualDiscount -2.1778% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.07% based on a bid of 22.01 and a limitMaturity.
WFS.PR.A SplitShare -2.0619% Asset coverage of just under 1.7:1 as of June 12, according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.11% based on a bid of 9.50 and a hardMaturity 2011-6-30 at 10.00 … 9.95% interest-equivalent for three year money isn’t all that bad!
BCE.PR.G FixFloat -1.3901%  
BNS.PR.M PerpetualDiscount -1.2953% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.01% based on a bid of 19.05 and a limitMaturity.
HSB.PR.C PerpetualDiscount -1.1759% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.10% based on a bid of 21.01 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.J PerpetualDiscount -1.1596% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.40% based on a bid of 17.90 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.H PerpetualDiscount -1.1329% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.37% based on a bid of 19.20 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.L PerpetualDiscount -1.1294% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.18% based on a bid of 21.01 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.J PerpetualDiscount -1.0748% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.76% based on a bid of 23.01 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.F PerpetualDiscount -1.0521% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.99% based on a bid of 18.81 and a limitMaturity.
NA.PR.K PerpetualDiscount -1.0309% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.17% based on a bid of 24.00 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.R FixFloat -1.0114%  
POW.PR.D PerpetualDiscount -1.0048% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.06% based on a bid of 20.69 and a limitMaturity.
ELF.PR.F PerpetualDiscount -1.1634% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.77% based on a bid of 20.00 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +1.2301% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.10% based on a bid of 19.75 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount +1.5541% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.97% based on a bid of 18.95 and a limitMaturity.
W.PR.H PerpetualDiscount +2.3661% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.08% based on a bid of 22.93 and a limitMaturity. A fine company. But why is it trading THROUGH the Sunlifes?
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BNS.PR.K PerpetualDiscount 405,200 Nesbitt crossed 400,000 shares in four tranches, all at 21.00. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.82% based on a bid of 20.99 and a limitMaturity.
NTL.PR.F Scraps (would be Ratchet, but there are credit concerns) 132,350 Nesbitt crossed 20,000, Scotia crossed 50,000, Nesbitt repeated for 15,400 shares (and sold 4,600 to Scotia) and CIBC crossed 40,000 – all at 12.10.
BNS.PR.M PerpetualDiscount 118,940 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.01% based on a bid of 19.05 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 68,895 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.14% based on a bid of 19.44 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.W PerpetualDiscount 55,955 CIBC crossed 50,000 at 22.20. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.58% based on a bid of 22.19 and a limitMaturity.
FBS.PR.B SplitShare 126,390 CIBC crossed 70,000 at 9.90, then Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at the same price. Asset coverage of just under 1.6:1 as of June 12, according to TD Securities. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.25% based on a bid of 9.86 and a hardMaturity 2011-12-15 at 10.00.

There were twenty-seven other index-included $25-pv-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity

June 19th, 2008

A paper available on SSRN. I haven’t yet done anything but skim it:

We examine whether liquidity is priced in corporate yield spreads. Using a battery of liquidity measures covering over 4000 corporate bonds and spanning investment grade and speculative grade categories, we find that more illiquid bonds earn higher yield spreads; and that an improvement of liquidity causes a significant reduction in yield spreads. These results hold after controlling for common bond-specific, firm-specific, and macroeconomic variables, and are robust to issuers’ fixed effect and potential endogeneity bias. Our finding mitigates the concern in the default risk literature that neither the level nor the dynamic of yield spreads can be fully explained by default risk determinants, and suggests that liquidity plays an important role in corporate bond valuation.

Yield Curve Pictures – 2008-06-18

June 18th, 2008

Those wishing to wallow in the extreme awfulness of current market conditions may wish to look at the HIMIPref™ graphs of the yield curve for March 31, 2007 (the peak, approximately), November 30, 2007 (the prior trough, approximately) and today (the new trough).

The curves represent spot rates, not yields-to-maturity. A single instrument will use the one-year rate to discount its dividend receivable in one year, the two year rate to discount the dividend receivable in two years, the three year …

When looking at the curve, note that it is computed with tax rates of 21.00% on dividend income; 46.4% on interest income and 23.20% on capital gains. Also note that this represents the core curve (instrument rated Pfd-1, dividend-paying, non-cumulative, operating company, non-retractible, average volume, fixed dividend) … instruments with varying characteristics will find themselves shifted off the curve in accordance with the current best-fit parameters.

For the formula used when fitting the curve, see the glossary entries on the yield curve.

June 18, 2008

June 18th, 2008

Another thoroughly appalling day for the preferred share market. The dividend yield on PerpetualDiscounts is now 6.07%, equivalent to interest of 8.50%. Long Corporates are now at about 6.15%, so the PerpetualDiscount Interest Equivalent spread to long corporates is now at a stunning 235bp, while the 30-year Canada is now at 4.15%. See Party Like It’s 1999! for an illustration of why the PDIE spread is “stunning”.

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.18% 4.19% 51,627 17.00 1 -0.0393% 1,115.0
Fixed-Floater 4.96% 4.72% 61,452 15.98 7 -0.3252% 1,010.2
Floater 4.05% 4.05% 71,224 17.33 2 +0.5677% 945.0
Op. Retract 4.85% 2.52% 87,437 2.56 15 -0.0942% 1,055.5
Split-Share 5.30% 5.61% 69,131 4.16 15 +0.0665% 1,050.7
Interest Bearing 6.09% 3.98% 48,952 2.03 3 +0.1004% 1,124.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.95% 4.82% 369,839 11.11 13 -0.3102% 1,008.9
Perpetual-Discount 6.00% 6.07% 222,203 13.78 59 -1.1154% 875.4
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount -4.2246% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.24% based on a bid of 17.91 and a limitMaturity.
POW.PR.A PerpetualDiscount -4.0732% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.16% based on a bid of 22.73 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount -3.5000% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.00% based on a bid of 23.16 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount -3.0649% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.06% based on a bid of 18.66 and a limitMaturity.
W.PR.H PerpetualDiscount -2.6510% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.24% based on a bid of 22.40 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.O PerpetualDiscount -2.4988% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.85% based on a bid of 21.07 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.D PerpetualDiscount -2.2108% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.99% based on a bid of 19.02 and a limitMaturity.
W.PR.J PerpetualDiscount -2.1730% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.34% based on a bid of 22.51 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.P PerpetualDiscount -2.1450% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.84% based on a bid of 22.81 and a limitMaturity.
ELF.PR.G PerpetualDiscount -2.0533% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.88% based on a bid of 17.65 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount -2.0103% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.92% based on a bid of 19.01 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.P PerpetualDiscount -1.9512% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.31% based on a bid of 22.11 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.E PerpetualDiscount -1.8528% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.97% based on a bid of 19.07 and a limitMaturity.
IAG.PR.A PerpetualDiscount -1.8480% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.05% based on a bid of 19.12 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.L PerpetualDiscount -1.7312% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.93% based on a bid of 19.30 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.M PerpetualDiscount -1.6811% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.93% based on a bid of 19.30 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.N PerpetualDiscount -1.6451% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.14% based on a bid of 16.74 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.C PerpetualDiscount -1.5768% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.02% based on a bid of 19.35 and a limitMaturity.
ELF.PR.F PerpetualDiscount -1.3965% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.85% based on a bid of 19.77 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.F PerpetualDiscount -1.3492% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.92% based on a bid of 19.01 and a limitMaturity.
BMO.PR.J PerpetualDiscount -1.3326% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.91% based on a bid of 19.25 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.A FixFloat -1.2848%  
BNS.PR.J PerpetualDiscount -1.2314% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.69% based on a bid of 23.26 and a limitMaturity.
MFC.PR.B PerpetualDiscount -1.2225% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.79% based on a bid of 20.20 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.B PerpetualDiscount -1.2152% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.18% based on a bid of 19.51 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.B PerpetualDiscount -1.2066% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.05% based on a bid of 19.65 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.G PerpetualDiscount -1.1942% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.99% based on a bid of 19.03 and a limitMaturity.
BNA.PR.B SplitShare -1.1846% Asset coverage of just under 3.6:1 as of May 30, according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.60% based on a bid of 20.02 and a hardMaturity 2016-3-25 at 25.00. Compare with BNA.PR.A (6.18% to 2010-9-30) and BNA.PR.C (7.01% to 2019-1-10).
SLF.PR.A PerpetualDiscount -1.1771% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.18% based on a bid of 19.31 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.H PerpetualDiscount -1.1707% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.01% based on a bid of 20.26 and a limitMaturity.
NA.PR.L PerpetualDiscount -1.1581% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.27% based on a bid of 19.63 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount -1.1506% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.98% based on a bid of 18.90 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.R FixFloat -1.1304%  
HSB.PR.D PerpetualDiscount -1.1111% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.14% based on a bid of 20.47 and a limitMaturity.
POW.PR.B PerpetualDiscount -1.0825% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.06% based on a bid of 22.11 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.H PerpetualDiscount -1.0698% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.29% based on a bid of 19.42 and a limitMaturity.
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount -1.0495% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.72% based on a bid of 19.80 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.Q PerpetualDiscount -1.0183% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.85% based on a bid of 24.30 and a limitMaturity.
WFS.PR.A SplitShare +1.0417% Asset coverage of just under 1.7:1 as of June 12 according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.34% based on a bid of 9.70 and a hardMaturity 2011-6-30 at 10.00.
POW.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +1.0455% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.03% based on a bid of 24.04 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.B Floater +1.1702%  
BMO.PR.H PerpetualDiscount +2.1296% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.06% based on a bid of 22.06 and a limitMaturity.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BMO.PR.I OpRet 162,000 Anonymous bought 122,000 from Nesbitt in six tranches at 25.20 … not necessarily the same “anonymous” for each tranche. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of -0.37% based on a bid of 25.18 and a call 2008-7-18 at 25.00.
RY.PR.W PerpetualDiscount 149,975 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.58% based on a bid of 22.20 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.K PerpetualDiscount 101,200 Desjardins crossed 90,800 at 21.20. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.77% based on a bid of 21.15 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 57,270 Anonymous bought 10,000 from Scotia at 19.45. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.18% based on a bid of 19.31 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.O PerpetualDiscount 45,700 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.85% based on a bid of 21.07 and a limitMaturity.

There were twenty-eight other index-included $25-pv-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

RPB.PR.A on Credit Watch Negative: S&P

June 18th, 2008

ROC Pref III Corp has announced:

its Preferred Shares have been placed on CreditWatch with negative implications. The move comes as a result several downgrades of companies held in the Reference Portfolio including the monoline insurance companies and Residential Capital (“ResCap”) during the past several weeks. The rating on the Preferred Shares reflects the rating on the fixed-rate managed credit linked note issued by The Toronto-Dominion Bank (the “CLN”). The return on the CLN, and thus on the Preferred Shares, is linked to the credit performance of a portfolio of 125 companies (the “Reference Portfolio”). The Reference Portfolio is actively managed by Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd. (the “Investment Manager”). The Investment Manager commented that “we remain confident in the overall portfolio credit quality. The vast majority of the holdings are performing well. Challenges in the US housing and mortgage market have caused a number of the holdings in the Reference Portfolio to be downgraded.

Recently, S&P classified ResCap’s debt restructuring as a “selective default” until they do further analysis. A selective default is not a default from the perspective of the Reference Portfolio and the CLN. If S&P restores ResCap’s rating to CCC, it may result in the removal of the Preferred Shares from CreditWatch.”

The Preferred Shares benefit from the protection of a first loss tranche equal to 3.35% of the Reference Portfolio and from a fixed recovery rate of 40% on any defaults. As a result, ROC Pref III Corp. will be able to sustain 7 defaults, which is approximately 2.5 times the average default rate and 1.3 times the worst default rate experienced in a portfolio of the same credit quality as the Reference Portfolio in any 3.8 year period since 1981. ROC Pref III Corp.’s Preferred Shares pay a fixed quarterly coupon of 4.40% on their $25.00 principal value and will mature on March 22, 2012. The Standard & Poor’s rating addresses the likelihood of full payment of interest and payment of $25.00 principal value per Preferred Share on the maturity date.

CC&L had to make a similar announcement for RPQ.PR.A in May.

RPB.PR.A is not tracked by HIMIPref™.

Retractions

June 18th, 2008

On an old thread regarding RY.PR.K, Assiduous Reader Kaitas21 asked:

Hi Hymas,

I wonder if you could shed some light on the RY.PR.K or even the recent Brookfield Asset Management 5.00% Cumulative, Convertible Class A Preference Shares, Series 21. Both issues have the conversion privilege to convert the prefs into their underlying common shares at the discretion of the issuer AND the holder. But if the holder exercises his/her conversion rights, the issuer can decide not to give the shares and redeem them into cash. So it seems that this type of prefs are linked to the common shares. How does this affect the price of the pref ? RY.PR.K is trading above par and it’s IPO coupon is 4.72%.

thanks again!

Note that this is a question of great pith and moment because the mechanism of retraction is common among retractibles; it should be noted that RY.PR.K has been called for redemption.

On the PrefInfo Help Page, I note:

A Retraction is an option available to the shareholder, whereby the shareholder may force the issuer to purchase (or to find an alternate third-party to purchase) his shares at the indicated price. It should be noted that Hymas Investment Management is not aware of any retraction privileges which do not have accompanying Redemption options that are exercisable prior to the eligibility period for the Retraction at a price lower than that specified or implied by the Retraction – so it is most conservative to assume that such a Redemption Option will be exercised immediately prior to the first Retraction date.

It should also be noted that many Retraction options specify that the shareholder will not receive cash, but will receive common shares at a price of 95% that of market, to a total value equal to the par value of the preferred shares retracted. Allowing 1% of this total value for commissions and differences between the calculated market value and the price that the shareholder might actually recieve when selling these shares results in, for instance, a $26.04 = ($25.00 / 0.96) presumed retraction price on a share with a par value of $25 on which common is received at 95% of market and presumed to be sold immediately.

The stipulation that in the case of conversion into shares the shares are priced at 95% of the then current market price means that the prefs are not, in fact, linked all that closely with the common. In the case of a $25 preferred share being converted to shares, if the computation of 95% of the market price is $25, the holder will receive one common for each preferred. If the computation results in a figure of $100, the holder will receive one common for every four preferreds. In any event, assuming a steady market, the holder is receiving common at a rate of:

Market Value of Common Received = (Par Value of Preferred) / 0.95

or, for a $25 preferred, $26.32.

When entering figures into the HIMIPref™ database, I actually use a divisor of 0.96, resulting in a figure of $26.04, to account for commissions and differences between the computed market price and the price that the holder might actually sell it at. Note that this is an approximation! It is entirely possible that the market value of the common could plunge in the period between the computation and the first chance the holder has to sell the stock. The process is not a risk-free conversion.

One other nuance to be noted is that the minimum conversion price is usually set to $2, implying that the maximum number of common shares receivable for each preferred is 12.5. This protects the common equity holders from extreme dilution in the event that, for instance, the price of the common goes to $0.01 which, in the absence of a minimum, would result in preferred shareholders would get 2,500 common shares per preferred.

If there is no minimum price, the conversion feature is referred to as a death spiral conversion provision:

Company completed a convertible debt financing containing terms that are commonly referred to in the investment community as “death spiral” conversion provisions. In financings such as these, any drop in the Company’s stock price has the potential to create a negative feedback loop of massive dilution, occurring when a company uses its shares (valued at a 10% discount to market) to pay principal and interest on the debt, which dilution in turn could drive further steep drops in the Company’s stock price, which market decline could in turn lead to even greater dilution upon the next payment of principal and interest using company stock, and so on.

The chances of, say, Royal Bank’s common price going below $2 and thus resulting in a potentially massive short-changing of the preferred shareholders are very slim. However, this provision has been very important in the conversion of IQW.PR.C in which the $2 stated minimum price is used, rather than the market price of somewhere around $0.20. It may not happen often, but it does happen … and IQW.PR.C holders are getting about 13 shares (since the conversion amount includes about $1 in unpaid dividends), worth about $2.60, for their $25.00 retractibles. That’s one of the risks!

All in all … if the company is healthy and has a double-digit share price, you can assume for analytical purposes that the company will elect to pay out $25.00 cash rather than $26.00 in shares. There are risks, but they’re relatively minor.

If the company is not healthy and does not have a double-digit share price … well, then, the retractible preferred are a speculation with their equity characteristics overwhelming the fixed-income characteristics.