PrefBlog

It will be recalled that MFC.PR.G will reset to 3.891% effective December 19.

Holders of MFC.PR.G have the option to convert to FloatingResets, which will pay 3-month bills plus 290bp on the par value of $25.00, reset quarterly. The deadline for notifying the company of the intent to convert is 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on December 5, 2016; but note that this is a company deadline and that brokers will generally set their deadlines a day or two in advance, so there’s not much time to lose if you’re planning to convert! However, if you miss the brokerage deadline they’ll probably do it on a ‘best efforts’ basis if you grovel in a sufficiently entertaining fashion. The ticker for the new FloatingReset will be MFC.PR.Q.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., BAM.PR.R and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

Click for Big

The market appears to have a distaste at the moment for floating rate product; most of the implied rates until the next interconversion are lower than the current 3-month bill rate and the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are both below zero, at -0.34% and -0.65%, respectively! Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the MFC.PR.G FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-to-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to be cheap and trading below the price of their FixedReset counterparts. Therefore, I recommend that holders of MFC.PR.G continue to hold the issue and not to convert. I will note that, given the apparent cheapness of the FloatingResets, it may be a good trade to swap the FixedReset for the FloatingReset in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – presumably, according to this analysis – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Note as well that conversion rights are dependent upon at least one million shares of each series being outstanding after giving effect to holders’ instructions; e.g., if only 100,000 shares of MFC.PR.G are tendered for conversion, then no conversions will be allowed; but if only 100,000 shares of MFC.PR.G will remain after the rest are all tendered, then conversion will be mandatory. However, this is relatively rare: all Strong Pairs have some version of this condition; there are 49 Strong Pairs outstanding; and only eight issues which did not create the potential Strong Pair.

On November 14, Sun Life Financial Inc. announced:

that it does not intend to exercise its right to redeem its outstanding Class A Non-Cumulative Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series 12R (the “Series 12R Shares”) on December 31, 2016. As a result, subject to certain conditions, the holders of Series 12R Shares will have the right, at their option, to convert all or part of their Series 12R Shares on a one-for-one basis into Class A Non-Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares Series 13QR of Sun Life Financial (the “Series 13QR Shares”) on December 31, 2016. Holders of Series 12R Shares who do not exercise their right to convert their Series 12R Shares into Series 13QR Shares on that date will retain their Series 12R Shares.

The foregoing conversions are subject to the following conditions: (i) if Sun Life Financial determines that there would be less than one million Series 12R Shares outstanding after December 31, 2016, then all remaining Series 12R Shares will automatically be converted into Series 13QR Shares on a one-for-one basis on December 31, 2016, and (ii) alternatively, if Sun Life Financial determines that there would be less than one million Series 13QR Shares outstanding after December 31, 2016, no Series 12R Shares will be converted into Series 13QR Shares. In either case, Sun Life Financial will give written notice to that effect to any registered holder affected by the preceeding minimums on or before Thursday, December 22, 2016.

The dividend rate applicable to the Series 12R Shares for the five-year period commencing on December 31, 2016 to but excluding December 31, 2021, and the dividend rate applicable to the Series 13QR Shares for the three-month period commencing on December 31, 2016 to but excluding March 31, 2017, will be determined on Thursday, December 1, 2016 and will be announced in a news release on December 1, 2016.

Beneficial owners of Series 12R Shares who wish to exercise their right of conversion should communicate as soon as possible with their broker or other nominee and should ensure that their instructions are followed in order to ensure that the deadline to exercise such right of conversion is met, which is 5:00 p.m. (ET) on Friday, December 16, 2016.

Subject to regulatory approval, Sun Life Financial: (i) may redeem the Series 12R Shares and the Series 13QR Shares in whole or in part on December 31, 2021 and on the 31st of December in every fifth year thereafter by the payment of an amount for each share so redeemed of $25.00, together with all declared and unpaid dividends to the date fixed for such redemption, and (ii) may redeem the Series 13QR Shares in whole or in part on any other date after December 31, 2016 by the payment of an amount for each share so redeemed of $25.50, together with all declared and unpaid dividends to the date fixed for such redemption.

An application will be made to list the Series 13QR Shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

SLF.PR.I is a FixedReset, 4.25%+273, that commenced trading 2011-11-10 after being announced 2011-11-3.

I will report the reset rate on SLF.PR.I when it becomes available.