PrefBlog

DBRS Limited has announced that it:

upgraded Enbridge Inc.’s (ENB or the Company) Issuer Rating and Senior Unsecured Notes rating both to A (low), Preferred Shares rating to Pfd-2 (low), and Commercial Paper rating to R-1 (low). Morningstar DBRS also confirmed the credit rating of the existing Subordinated Notes (Existing Subordinated Notes) at BBB (low) and assigned a final credit rating of BBB to its Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Subordinated Notes due March 15, 2055, and Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Subordinated Notes due June 27, 2054 (together, the New Subordinated Notes). All trends are Stable. Morningstar DBRS also upgraded Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P.’s (EEP) Senior Unsecured Notes rating to A (low) with a Stable trend based on ENB’s guarantee; EEP in turn guarantees ENB’s Senior Unsecured Notes. ENB also guarantees the Senior Unsecured Notes of Spectra Energy Partners, L.P., which in turn guarantees ENB’s Senior Unsecured Notes. At the same time, Morningstar DBRS has removed the Under Review With Developing Implications (UR-Dev.) status of the credit ratings of ENB and EEP.

KEY CREDIT RATING CONSIDERATIONS
The credit ratings were placed UR-Dev. in September 2023 following the announcement that ENB had entered into definitive agreements (the Acquisition) with Dominion Energy, Inc. to acquire (1) East Ohio Gas Company (EOG); (2) Questar Gas Company (Questar Gas) and its related Wexpro companies (Wexpro, and collectively with Questar Gas, Questar); and (3) Public Service Company of North Carolina, Incorporated (PSNC; collectively, the Local Distribution Companies (LDCs)) for a total purchase price of USD 14.0 billion ($19 billion¿translated at USD/CAD 1.35), including the assumption of approximately USD 4.6 billion in debt. At the time, Morningstar DBRS had noted that the Acquisition should have a positive impact on ENB’s business risk profile, and should the financing plan result in minimal to no impact on the Company’s key credit metrics as of March 31, 2023 (please see Morningstar DBRS’ rating report on the Company dated June 28, 2023, for further details), Morningstar DBRS may consider a positive credit rating action.

ENB has made material progress on closing the Acquisition and the associated financing plan. The acquisition of EOG and Questar, which together account for the largest contribution to earnings from the Acquisition, closed in March 2024 and June 2024, respectively, with no material changes in terms and conditions from when the Acquisition was announced. ENB expects the acquisition of PSNC to close in Q3 2024. ENB’s financing plan is also now largely complete with the purchase price of $12.8 billion funded with equity and asset sales totaling approximately $6.2 billion and the issuance of Subordinated Notes for approximately $3.7 billion. Morningstar DBRS expects the balance to be raised from a mix of the recent issuance of the New Subordinated Notes, at-the-market equity issuance program, and/or asset sales.

Morningstar DBRS believes that the collective business risk profile of the utility assets is stronger than the weighted average of ENB’s current investment portfolio. Each LDC is state-regulated and operates under a cost-of-service framework with no exposure to natural gas price risk or volume risk. All three LDCs are allowed timely operating costs and capital expenditure recovery, subject to only modest regulatory lags. Combined, the LDCs provide natural gas distribution services to nearly 3.0 million customers with the strongest base of customers at EOG and Questar, which serve approximately 1.2 million customers each. EOG (rate base $6.0 billion in 2022) is a single-state LDC operating an extensive gas distribution system with more than 40 interconnections across nine interstate gas pipelines. EOG is anticipated to have the potential for a substantial rate base increase driven by modernization efforts. Questar (rate base $3.9 billion in 2022) largely operates in Utah and has a one-of-a-kind agreement with Wexpro that provides up to 65% of Questar’s annual gas supply on a cost-of-service arrangement. PSNC (rate base $2.6 billion in 2022) is a single-state LDC in North Carolina. Both Questar and PSNC are experiencing growth primarily driven by population expansion within their respective service territories.

Morningstar DBRS views the planned acquisition of the regulated gas utility businesses as providing a more stable source of cash flow generation with lower risk compared with ENB’s existing business risk profile. The Acquisition is expected to double the contribution of ENB’s regulated gas distribution businesses to approximately 23% of total adjusted EBITDA (Morningstar DBRS estimate for 2025) from 13% currently. ENB will benefit from greater geographic and regulatory diversification with higher regulatory returns on equity and thicker deemed equity. Finally, ENB will stand to potentially gain from synergies, as the Acquisition would form the largest natural gas distribution utility in North America, by volume, with a rate base exceeding $27 billion serving approximately 7 million customers in Canada and the U.S.

Given the material proceeds from equity and asset sales used in financing the Acquisition, Morningstar DBRS expects the Company’s financial risk profile to remain supportive of the credit ratings. Morningstar DBRS expects the Company will maintain its cash flow-to-debt ratio between 14% and 15% from 2025 onwards, which is likely to be the first full year after close of the Acquisition.

The Existing Subordinated Notes and the New Subordinated Notes rank equally in right of payment until the occurrence of certain bankruptcy and related events at which time the Existing Subordinated Notes would automatically convert into preferred shares. The Existing Subordinated Notes would then rank below the New Subordinated Notes. According to Morningstar DBRS’ Hierarchy Principle, as outlined in the Morningstar DBRS “Credit Ratings Global Policy,” the Existing Subordinated Notes, being subordinate to the New Subordinated Notes in the event of insolvency of the Company, should be rated one notch lower than the New Subordinated Notes (i.e., BBB (low)), hence the confirmation at BBB (low) of the Existing Subordinated Notes, despite the upgrade to the Issuer Rating

CREDIT RATING DRIVERS
A positive credit rating action is unlikely in medium term unless there is a successful resolution of the Line 5 dispute and the Company maintains its consolidated cash flow-to-debt ratio of higher than 17.5%. While unlikely in the medium term, a negative credit rating action could occur if the Company’s consolidated cash flow-to-debt ratio stays consistently less than 12.5%

EARNINGS OUTLOOK
Morningstar expects EBITDA in 2024 and 2025 to grow at around 8% primarily because of the Acquisition and commercially secured projects that are expected to come into service over the next two years.

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
Morningstar DBRS expects cash flow from operations to also trend higher as a result of higher earnings. While overall debt levels are expected to increase as the Company funds a part of its secured capital program from debt, Morningstar DBRS expects the Company to stay within its target Debt/EBITDA range of 4.5 times (x) to 5.0x.

CREDIT RATING RATIONALE
ENB’s credit ratings are supported by (1) a high level of geographic and product-mix diversification and large scale; (2) low-risk operations that provide stable income and cash flow; and (3) strong natural gas transmission, distribution, and storage businesses, which have been enhanced materially by the Acquisition. The credit ratings are constrained by (1) pipeline competition, volume, and operational risks; (2) structural subordination at ENB; and (3) rising environmental, regulatory, and political risks

Affected issues are (deep breath): ENB.PF.A, ENB.PF.C, ENB.PF.E, ENB.PF.G, ENB.PF.K, ENB.PR.A, ENB.PR.B, ENB.PR.D, ENB.PR.F, ENB.PR.H, ENB.PR.J, ENB.PR.N, ENB.PR.P, ENB.PR.T and ENB.PR.Y.

This is a pretty big deal, for those who care about such things. ENB comprises about 11.5% of ZPR (as of mid-November, 2023) and about 8.4% of CPD (as of mid-March, 2021, according to my notes made during my PrefLetter monitoring. So measured credit quality for the preferred share market has just improved considerably! Enbridge issues have been rated P-2(low) by S&P since June, 2015.

This entry was posted on Friday, June 28th, 2024 at 7:12 pm and is filed under Issue Comments. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.