Archive for March, 2018

March 12, 2018

Monday, March 12th, 2018

Guess who’s back?

E. Craig Coats Jr. never set out to be a bond vigilante.

As the former head of Salomon Brothers’ Treasuries desk, the last thing on his mind running the world’s biggest debt trader in the 1970s and 80s was fighting Washington’s fiscal largesse. He had a much simpler agenda: survive.

In an era when inflation outbreaks could send yields surging hundreds of basis points in a matter of days, getting stuck on the wrong side of the bond market could end your career. That’s why for Coats, any hint consumer prices were poised to spike was a sign to sell with both hands. The knock-on effect, of course, was that he inadvertently became a disciplinarian of American budgetary freewheeling, forcing officials to curb inflationary policies or risk an upward spiral in funding costs.

It’s been a generation since traders like Coats last imposed their will on Washington and Wall Street alike. Yet the original vigilante says he’s seeing signs that the once feared punishers of profligate spending are lurking again, lured back by an expansionary fiscal policy and signs of resurgent inflation — just as the world’s central banks dial back years of unprecedented bond buying that’s largely shielded politicians from market pressures.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2659 % 3,102.3
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2659 % 5,692.6
Floater 3.20 % 3.39 % 115,826 18.69 4 0.2659 % 3,280.6
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1332 % 3,160.9
SplitShare 4.70 % 3.99 % 60,983 3.29 5 -0.1332 % 3,774.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1332 % 2,945.3
Perpetual-Premium 5.61 % 3.56 % 80,707 0.09 11 0.0610 % 2,833.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.33 % 5.43 % 87,911 14.70 23 0.0669 % 2,940.0
FixedReset 4.25 % 4.61 % 169,910 5.87 103 0.1180 % 2,522.5
Deemed-Retractible 5.17 % 5.74 % 92,328 5.75 28 0.0393 % 2,920.0
FloatingReset 3.00 % 3.11 % 36,500 3.67 10 -0.0883 % 2,761.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.80
Bid-YTW : -12.28 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 63,712 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %
IAG.PR.I FixedReset 36,560 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.97
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset 34,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-12
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 24.34
Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 30,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-12
Maturity Price : 23.47
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
W.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 28,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-12
Maturity Price : 24.25
Evaluated at bid price : 24.54
Bid-YTW : 5.69 %
RY.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 18,808 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-04-11
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.13
Bid-YTW : 0.57 %
There were 5 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BMO.PR.S FixedReset Quote: 23.78 – 24.32
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.3484

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-12
Maturity Price : 23.28
Evaluated at bid price : 23.78
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %

TRP.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 17.73 – 18.00
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1582

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-12
Maturity Price : 17.73
Evaluated at bid price : 17.73
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %

TD.PR.Z FloatingReset Quote: 24.56 – 24.99
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.3220

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.56
Bid-YTW : 3.22 %

MFC.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 24.38 – 24.70
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2159

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-12-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.38
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %

MFC.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 23.14 – 23.37
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1630

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.14
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %

HSE.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 17.79 – 18.07
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.2153

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-12
Maturity Price : 17.79
Evaluated at bid price : 17.79
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %

March PrefLetter Released!

Sunday, March 11th, 2018

The March, 2018, edition of PrefLetter has been released and is now available for purchase as the “Previous edition”. Those who subscribe for a full year receive the “Previous edition” as a bonus.

PrefLetter may now be purchased by all Canadian residents.

Until further notice, the “Previous Edition” will refer to the March, 2018, issue, while the “Next Edition” will be the April, 2018, issue, scheduled to be prepared as of the close April 13 and eMailed to subscribers prior to market-opening on April 16.

PrefLetter is intended for long term investors seeking issues to buy-and-hold. At least one recommendation from each of the major preferred share sectors is included and discussed.

Note: My verbosity has grown by such leaps and bounds that it is no longer possible to deliver PrefLetter as an eMail attachment – it’s just too big for my software! Instead, I have sent passwords – click on the link in your eMail and your copy will download.

Note: The PrefLetter website has a Subscriber Download Feature. If you have not received your copy, try it!

Note: PrefLetter eMails sometimes runs afoul of spam filters. If you have not received your copy within fifteen minutes of a release notice such as this one, please double check your (company’s) spam filtering policy and your spam repository – there are some hints in the post Sympatico Spam Filters out of Control. If it’s not there, contact me and I’ll get you your copy … somehow!

Note: There have been scattered complaints regarding inability to open PrefLetter in Acrobat Reader, despite my practice of including myself on the subscription list and immediately checking the copy received. I have had the occasional difficulty reading US Government documents, which I was able to resolve by downloading and installing the latest version of Adobe Reader. Also, note that so far, all complaints have been from users of Yahoo Mail. Try saving it to disk first, before attempting to open it.

Note: There have been other scattered complaints that double-clicking on the links in the “PrefLetter Download” email results in a message that the password has already been used. I have been able to reproduce this problem in my own eMail software … the problem is double-clicking. What happens is the first click opens the link and the second click finds that the password has already been used and refuses to work properly. So the moral of the story is: Don’t be a dick! Single Click!

Note: Assiduous Reader DG informs me:

In case you have any other Apple users: you need to install a free App from the apple store called “FileApp”. It comes with it’s own tutorial and allows you to download and save a PDF file.

However, Assiduous Reader Adrian informs me in the comments to the January 2015 release:

Some nitpicking for DG:
FileApp costs $1.19 in the Apple Store.

But Adrian2 now advises:

Well, as of now, FileApp is free (again?).

FTN.PR.A : Annual Report 2017

Saturday, March 10th, 2018

Financial 15 Split Inc. has released its Annual Report to November 30, 2017.

FTN / FTN.PR.A Performance
Instrument One
Year
Three
Years
Five
Years
Ten
Years
Whole Unit +19.84% +14.12% +18.38% +5.78%
FTN.PR.A +5.38% +5.38% +5.38% +5.38%
FTN +42.22% +28.79% +42.44% +9.25%
S&P/TSX Financial Index +16.50% +10.02% +14.64% +7.97%
S&P 500 Financial Index +19.52% +18.50% +25.21% +5.64%

Figures of interest are:

MER: 1.19% of the whole unit value, excluding one time initial offering expenses.

Average Net Assets: We need this to calculate portfolio yield. MER of 1.19% Total Expenses of 5,868,070 implies $493-million net assets. Preferred Share distributions of 12,976,652 @ 0.525 / share implies 24.7-million shares out on average. Average Unit Value (beginning & end of year) = (18.32 + 17.18) / 2 = 17.75. Therefore 24.7-million @ 17.75 = 438-million average net assets. Rotten agreement between these two methods, but they did have a lot of treasury offerings this year. Give 75% weight to the first calculation and call it 479-million average.

Underlying Portfolio Yield: Dividends received (net of withholding) of 11,739,373 divided by average net assets of 479-million is 2.45%

Income Coverage: Net Investment Income of 5,871,303 divided by Preferred Share Distributions of 12,976,652 is 45%.

March 9, 2018

Friday, March 9th, 2018

And now it’s time for PrefLetter

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 3,094.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 5,677.5
Floater 3.21 % 3.41 % 116,532 18.64 4 0.0000 % 3,271.9
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0548 % 3,165.1
SplitShare 4.69 % 3.98 % 61,858 3.30 5 -0.0548 % 3,779.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0548 % 2,949.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.62 % 4.24 % 80,899 0.63 11 0.1546 % 2,831.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.33 % 5.44 % 91,070 14.69 23 0.1283 % 2,938.0
FixedReset 4.26 % 4.61 % 172,438 5.88 103 0.2703 % 2,519.5
Deemed-Retractible 5.17 % 5.72 % 93,680 5.76 28 0.1589 % 2,918.8
FloatingReset 3.00 % 3.06 % 37,988 3.68 10 0.0530 % 2,764.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-09
Maturity Price : 23.15
Evaluated at bid price : 23.55
Bid-YTW : 4.69 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-09-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.73
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-09
Maturity Price : 23.12
Evaluated at bid price : 24.23
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-09
Maturity Price : 21.37
Evaluated at bid price : 21.68
Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.17
Bid-YTW : 7.18 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.G FixedReset 326,537 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.45
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %
BNS.PR.H FixedReset 217,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-01-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.99
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %
RY.PR.R FixedReset 150,905 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.66
Bid-YTW : 3.54 %
BMO.PR.B FixedReset 107,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.04
Bid-YTW : 3.78 %
BNS.PR.G FixedReset 106,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-07-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.67
Bid-YTW : 3.61 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset 76,593 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.00
Bid-YTW : 3.86 %
There were 42 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Quote: 19.17 – 19.59
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.2663

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.17
Bid-YTW : 7.18 %

RY.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 24.08 – 24.38
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1912

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-09
Maturity Price : 23.06
Evaluated at bid price : 24.08
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %

TD.PF.B FixedReset Quote: 23.30 – 23.60
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2007

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-09
Maturity Price : 22.85
Evaluated at bid price : 23.30
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %

HSE.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 24.85 – 25.23
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2943

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-09
Maturity Price : 23.58
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 5.16 %

GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.50 – 25.78
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1963

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : -3.69 %

PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.61 – 22.85
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1658

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-09
Maturity Price : 22.34
Evaluated at bid price : 22.61
Bid-YTW : 5.53 %

March 8, 2018

Thursday, March 8th, 2018
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.6557 % 3,094.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.6557 % 5,677.5
Floater 3.21 % 3.41 % 117,468 18.65 4 0.6557 % 3,271.9
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0235 % 3,166.9
SplitShare 4.69 % 4.04 % 62,802 3.30 5 -0.0235 % 3,781.9
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0235 % 2,950.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.63 % 4.80 % 78,752 0.79 11 0.0360 % 2,827.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.34 % 5.44 % 90,428 14.70 23 0.2573 % 2,934.2
FixedReset 4.27 % 4.58 % 168,906 5.92 103 0.0840 % 2,512.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.18 % 5.75 % 93,855 5.76 28 0.2199 % 2,914.2
FloatingReset 3.00 % 3.05 % 38,535 3.68 10 0.0973 % 2,762.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
W.PR.K FixedReset 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-01-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.15
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-08
Maturity Price : 17.88
Evaluated at bid price : 17.88
Bid-YTW : 3.41 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.H FixedReset 107,510 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-08
Maturity Price : 23.06
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
TD.PF.G FixedReset 104,272 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.40
Bid-YTW : 3.80 %
IAG.PR.I FixedReset 76,080 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.95
Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 56,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-08
Maturity Price : 19.70
Evaluated at bid price : 19.70
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
CM.PR.R FixedReset 52,448 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 42,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-08
Maturity Price : 22.74
Evaluated at bid price : 23.09
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
There were 17 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.S Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.46 – 24.85
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2321

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.46
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %

TD.PR.Y FixedReset Quote: 24.66 – 24.98
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2115

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.66
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %

CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.91 – 23.45
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.4418

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.91
Bid-YTW : 6.50 %

EIT.PR.A SplitShare Quote: 25.23 – 25.57
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2459

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2024-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.23
Bid-YTW : 4.63 %

BAM.PR.R FixedReset Quote: 20.90 – 21.19
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2080

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-08
Maturity Price : 20.90
Evaluated at bid price : 20.90
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %

BAM.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 21.34 – 21.63
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2097

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-08
Maturity Price : 21.34
Evaluated at bid price : 21.34
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %

March 7, 2018

Wednesday, March 7th, 2018

PerpetualDiscounts now yield about 5.49%, equivalent to 7.14% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield a little under 3.95%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 320bp, a slight (and perhaps spurious) widening from the 315bp reported February 28.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4301 % 3,073.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4301 % 5,640.5
Floater 3.23 % 3.44 % 113,922 18.59 4 0.4301 % 3,250.6
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0548 % 3,167.6
SplitShare 4.69 % 3.91 % 63,045 3.31 5 0.0548 % 3,782.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0548 % 2,951.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.63 % 4.98 % 79,697 0.79 11 -0.0790 % 2,826.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.35 % 5.49 % 91,128 14.61 23 0.0000 % 2,926.7
FixedReset 4.27 % 4.59 % 170,601 5.92 103 -0.0737 % 2,510.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.19 % 5.74 % 94,934 5.76 28 -0.0091 % 2,907.8
FloatingReset 3.01 % 3.03 % 39,966 3.68 10 0.1284 % 2,760.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -2.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-07
Maturity Price : 16.63
Evaluated at bid price : 16.63
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
PWF.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-07
Maturity Price : 23.53
Evaluated at bid price : 23.87
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
RY.PR.O Perpetual-Discount -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-07
Maturity Price : 24.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.41
Bid-YTW : 5.04 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-07
Maturity Price : 21.71
Evaluated at bid price : 22.07
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BNS.PR.H FixedReset 430,266 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-01-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.87
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
IAG.PR.I FixedReset 382,460 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.90
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 108,195 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-07
Maturity Price : 19.72
Evaluated at bid price : 19.72
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
TD.PR.T FloatingReset 100,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.76
Bid-YTW : 2.91 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 98,815 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.75
Bid-YTW : 7.48 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 56,702 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.96
Bid-YTW : 3.82 %
There were 34 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
NA.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 24.38 – 24.79
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.2554

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-07
Maturity Price : 22.92
Evaluated at bid price : 24.38
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %

MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 18.76 – 19.05
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1706

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.76
Bid-YTW : 7.46 %

RY.PR.O Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.41 – 24.71
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1899

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-07
Maturity Price : 24.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.41
Bid-YTW : 5.04 %

W.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 25.85 – 26.15
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1929

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-01-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.85
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 24.70 – 24.95
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1601

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-07
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %

CM.PR.S FixedReset Quote: 24.41 – 24.65
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1554

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-07
Maturity Price : 22.95
Evaluated at bid price : 24.41
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %

IAG.PR.I Closes Soft on Modest Volume

Wednesday, March 7th, 2018

Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc. has announced:

that it has closed its previously announced bought deal public offering of 2,500,000 common shares (the “Common Shares”) at a price of $54.10 per Common Share, for gross proceeds of $135,250,000 and its previously announced concurrent bought deal public offering of 6,000,000 Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Class A Preferred Shares Series I (the “Series I Preferred Shares”) at a price of $25.00 per Series I Preferred Share, for gross proceeds of $150,000,000. Both offerings were purchased by a syndicate of underwriters co-led by TD Securities Inc. and National Bank Financial Inc., and which also included RBC Capital Markets, Scotiabank, BMO Capital Markets, CIBC Capital Markets and Industrial Alliance Securities Inc.

The Series I Preferred Shares have been rated “Pfd-2(High)” by DBRS Limited and “A-/P-1(Low)” by Standard & Poor’s and have been listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “IAG.PR.I”.

The Common Shares and the Series I Preferred Shares were issued under two distinct prospectus supplements each dated February 28, 2018 to the Company’s short form base shelf prospectus dated June 22, 2017. Details of each offering are set out in the respective prospectus supplements which are available on the Company’s profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.

IAG.PR.I is a FixedReset, 4.80%+275, announced 2018-2-26. It will be tracked by HIMIPref™ and assigned to the FixedResets subindex.

As this issue is not NVCC compliant and it is an insurance issue, it is analyzed as having a Deemed Retraction, effective 2025-1-31 (this date may change in the future).

IAG.PR.I traded 382,460 shares today in a range of 24.84-99 before closing at 24.90-95. Vital statistics are:

IAG.PR.I FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.90
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %

This issue wasn’t all that badly priced on issue date, but now looks rich. IAG.PR.G, the only other FixedReset issued by the company, is currently described as 3.777%+285 and will reset 2022-6-30 – prior to the reset of this new issue. It closed today at 23.53-64, down substantially from the 24.15-22 quote on IAG.PR.I’s announcement date. You’re losing about a point in dividends every year for the four years-odd until reset on a $25.00 par value, so that’s worth a buck; on announcement date this correction meant the issues were reasonably close to being fairly-priced relative to each other, but the large drop in the IAG.PR.G quote means that it is now cheap relative to the new issue. The yields to the Deemed Maturity 2025-1-31 are 5.15% for IAG.PR.G and 4.89% for the new issue, after accounting for resets at the current GOC-5 level.

MFC.PR.J : No Conversion to FloatingReset

Wednesday, March 7th, 2018

Manulife Financial Corporation has announced (on March 6):

that after having taken into account all election notices received by the March 5, 2018 deadline for conversion of its currently outstanding 8,000,000 Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class 1 Shares Series 11 (the “Series 11 Preferred Shares”) (TSX: MFC.PR.J) into Non-cumulative Floating Rate Class 1 Shares Series 12 of Manulife (the “Series 12 Preferred Shares”), the holders of Series 11 Preferred Shares are not entitled to convert their Series 11 Preferred Shares into Series 12 Preferred Shares. There were 203,586Series 11 Preferred Shares elected for conversion, which is less than the minimum one million shares required to give effect to conversions into Series 12 Preferred Shares.

As announced by Manulife on February 20, 2018, after March 19, 2018, holders of Series 11 Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive fixed rate non-cumulative preferential cash dividends on a quarterly basis, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Manulife and subject to the provisions of the Insurance Companies Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the five-year period commencing on March 20, 2018, and ending on March 19, 2023, will be 4.73100% per annum or $0.295688 per share per quarter, being equal to the sum of the five-year Government of Canada bond yield as at February 20, 2018, plus 2.61%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Series 11 Preferred Shares.

Subject to certain conditions described in the prospectus supplement dated November 27, 2012 relating to the issuance of the Series 11 Preferred Shares, Manulife may redeem the Series 11 Preferred Shares, in whole or in part, on March 19, 2023 and on March 19 every five years thereafter.

It will be recalled that MFC.PR.J will reset to 4.731% effective 2018-3-20 and will hence be referred to as a FixedReset, 4.731%+261.

MFC.PR.J commenced trading 2012-12-4 after being announced 2012-11-27. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ and is assigned to the FixedReset sub-index.

As this issue is not NVCC compliant and it is an insurance issue, it is analyzed as having a Deemed Retraction, effective 2025-1-31 (this date may change in the future).

It will be further recalled that I recommended against conversion.

March 6, 2018

Tuesday, March 6th, 2018

There’s always something going on!

Police in Toronto say four people are facing charges after a mortgage fraud investigation lasting nearly five years.

Four men between the ages of 45 and 53 are due in court Tuesday on charges including fraud, conspiracy, forgery and money laundering.

Police allege the men, who are all from the Toronto area, took part in a “sophisticated and complex” scheme involving “several high-end properties.”

They estimate the value of the alleged fraud at $17-million.

According to a statement from Toronto police, officers with the force’s financial crimes unit began investigating the alleged fraud in the spring of 2013.

I’m always suspicious when frauds like this are described as being “sophisticated and complex”, because so often it boils down to “somebody lied and nobody checked”. I’m reminded of a crime story I read eons ago, in which two detectives are talking after their shift and one says he cracked a fraud case that day. He said that the staff at the victimized office were awed by the ingenuity of the swindle, and that he didn’t get it. It was just the same old story, he said. Dumb stealing from Dumber.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1208 % 3,060.7
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1208 % 5,616.3
Floater 3.25 % 3.46 % 113,616 18.55 4 -0.1208 % 3,236.7
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0941 % 3,165.9
SplitShare 4.69 % 4.09 % 65,216 3.31 5 0.0941 % 3,780.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0941 % 2,949.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.62 % 4.61 % 80,039 0.79 11 0.1367 % 2,828.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.35 % 5.51 % 90,370 14.59 23 0.2317 % 2,926.7
FixedReset 4.26 % 4.59 % 169,161 5.93 102 -0.0544 % 2,512.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.19 % 5.76 % 94,479 5.76 28 0.2433 % 2,908.0
FloatingReset 3.01 % 3.01 % 37,008 3.68 10 -0.3399 % 2,756.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 6.51 %
PWF.PR.Q FloatingReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-06
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.66
Bid-YTW : 3.14 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-06
Maturity Price : 20.91
Evaluated at bid price : 20.91
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 7.35 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.91
Bid-YTW : 6.85 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BNS.PR.H FixedReset 659,210 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-01-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.87
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 268,662 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-06
Maturity Price : 22.82
Evaluated at bid price : 23.17
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 268,400 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-06
Maturity Price : 22.86
Evaluated at bid price : 23.31
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
BNS.PR.E FixedReset 150,637 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.29
Bid-YTW : 3.96 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 115,930 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-06
Maturity Price : 19.78
Evaluated at bid price : 19.78
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
NA.PR.E FixedReset 102,637 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-06
Maturity Price : 22.90
Evaluated at bid price : 24.32
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
There were 30 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PF.B FixedReset Quote: 23.97 – 24.39
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.2642

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-06
Maturity Price : 23.45
Evaluated at bid price : 23.97
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %

SLF.PR.J FloatingReset Quote: 19.50 – 19.90
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2664

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 6.51 %

BAM.PF.E FixedReset Quote: 23.75 – 24.11
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2429

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-06
Maturity Price : 23.43
Evaluated at bid price : 23.75
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %

MFC.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 23.38 – 23.67
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1824

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.38
Bid-YTW : 5.34 %

IFC.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 20.50 – 20.80
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2075

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 6.94 %

TRP.PR.F FloatingReset Quote: 20.22 – 20.55
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2464

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-06
Maturity Price : 20.22
Evaluated at bid price : 20.22
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %

New Issue: TD FixedReset 4.70%+270, NVCC

Tuesday, March 6th, 2018

The Toronto-Dominion Bank has announced:

a domestic public offering of Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)), Series 18 (the “Series 18 Shares”).

TD has entered into an agreement with a group of underwriters led by TD Securities Inc. to issue, on a bought deal basis, 10 million Series 18 Shares at a price of $25.00 per share to raise gross proceeds of $250 million. TD has also granted the underwriters an option to purchase, on the same terms, up to an additional 2 million Series 18 Shares. This option is exercisable in whole or in part by the underwriters at any time up to two business days prior to closing.

The Series 18 Shares will yield 4.70% annually, with dividends payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TD, for the initial period ending April 30, 2023. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a level of 2.70% over the then five-year Government of Canada bond yield.

Subject to regulatory approval, on April 30, 2023 and on April 30 every 5 years thereafter, TD may redeem the Series 18 Shares, in whole or in part, at $25.00 per share. Subject to TD’s right of redemption and certain other conditions, holders of the Series 18 Shares will have the right to convert their shares into Non-Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares (NVCC), Series 19 (the “Series 19 Shares”), on April 30, 2023, and on April 30 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 19 Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating rate dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TD, equal to the three-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 2.70%.

The expected closing date is March 14, 2018. TD will make an application to list the Series 18 Shares as of the closing date on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes.

They later announced:

that as a result of strong investor demand for its previously announced domestic public offering of Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)), Series 18 (the “Series 18 Shares”), the size of the offering has been increased to 14 million Series 18 Shares. The gross proceeds of the offering will now be $350 million. The offering will be underwritten by a group of underwriters led by TD Securities Inc.

This issue looks quite expensive to me, according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

impvol_td_180305
Click for Big

We see in this chart many of the same features we saw when reviewing the recent BIP.PR.E, BEP.PR.M, CM.PR.S, NA.PR.E and MFC.PR.Q: the curve is very steep, with Implied Volatility equal to 40% (a ridiculously large figure).

The ludicrously high figure of Implied Volatility is something I take to mean that the underlying assumption of the Black-Scholes model, that of no directionality of prices, is not accepted by the market; the market seems to be taking the view that since things seem rosy now, they will always be rosy and everything will trade near par in the future.

I balk at ascribing a 100% probability to the ‘all issues will be called, or at least exhibit price stability’ hypothesis. There may still be a few old geezers amongst the Assiduous Readers of this blog who can still (faintly) remember the Great Bear Market of 2014-16, in which quite a few similar assumptions made earlier turned out to be slightly inaccurate. The extra cushion implied by an Issue Reset Spread that is well over the market spread is worth something, even if nothing gets called.

According to the analysis shown above, the fair value of this issue is 24.17. Careful Assiduous Readers will note that TD.PF.I, a FixedReset 4.50%+301 that commenced trading 2017-7-14, closed today at 25.04-20. The extra 20bp of initial dividend rate is worth $0.05 annually, or a total of a little over $0.20 extra for the new issue … but if they both reset then TD.PF.I will get – to the extent reset rates nine months apart are the same – $0.0775 p.a. more than the new issue. According to the Implied Volatility analysis above, the fair value of TD.PF.I is 24.91.