Archive for April, 2009

New Issue: RY Fixed-Reset 6.10%+413

Tuesday, April 21st, 2009

Royal Bank has announced:

a domestic public offering of $200 million of Non-Cumulative, 5 year rate reset Preferred Shares Series AX.

The bank will issue 8 million Preferred Shares Series AX priced at $25 per share and holders will be entitled to receive non-cumulative quarterly fixed dividend for the initial period ending November 24, 2014 in the amount of $1.525 per share, to yield 6.10 per cent annually. The bank has granted the Underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part, to purchase up to an additional 3.0 million Preferred Shares at the same offering price.

Subject to regulatory approval, on or after November 24, 2014, the bank may redeem the Preferred Shares Series AX in whole or in part at par. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a rate equal to 4.13 per cent over the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield. Holders of Preferred Shares Series AX will, subject to certain conditions, have the right to convert all or any part of their shares to non-cumulative floating rate preferred shares Series AY (the “Preferred Shares Series AY”) on November 24, 2014 and on November 24 every five years thereafter.

Holders of the Preferred Shares Series AY will be entitled to receive a non-cumulative quarterly floating dividend at a rate equal to the 3-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 4.13 per cent. Holders of Preferred Shares Series AY will, subject to certain conditions, have the right to convert all or any part of their shares to Preferred Shares Series AX on November 24, 2019 and on November 24 every five years thereafter.

The offering will be underwritten by a syndicate led by RBC Capital Markets. The expected closing date is April 29, 2009.

… and very shortly after that announcement, announced:

that as a result of strong investor demand for its domestic public offering of Non-Cumulative, 5 year rate reset Preferred Shares Series AX (the “Preferred Shares Series AX”), the size of the offering has been increased to 12 million shares. The gross proceeds of the offering will now be $300 million. In addition, the bank has granted the Underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part, to purchase up to an additional 1 million Preferred Shares Series AX at a price of $25 per share. The offering will be underwritten by a syndicate led by RBC Capital Markets. The expected closing date is April 29, 2009.

The first coupon is another fat one: $0.48884, payable August 24. Mark your calendars – there could be some good trades lying around just before the ex-Date!

This issue is good news for the continued health of the Fixed-Reset market: it marks the first time that a new issue has come out with a lower initial fixed rate and lower reset. The fact that they got advice to the effect that they only needed a week to bring it to market and then increased the issue size shows that – whatever else might be going on in the heads of the buyers – they are not blindly addicted to escalating coupons. A small item of cheer, but cheerful nevertheless.

Bank of Canada Halves Overnight Rate to 0.25%; Prime Follows to 2.25%

Tuesday, April 21st, 2009

The Bank of Canada has announced (bolding added):

lowers overnight rate target by 1/4 percentage point to 1/4 per cent and, conditional on the inflation outlook, commits to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010
OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of a percentage point to 1/4 per cent, which the Bank judges to be the effective lower bound for that rate. The Bank Rate is correspondingly lowered to 1/2 per cent. The deposit rate – the rate paid on deposits held by financial institutions at the Bank of Canada – is left unchanged at 1/4 per cent and provides the floor for the overnight rate. Details of the Bank’s operating framework at the effective lower bound can be found here.

The Bank expects core inflation to diminish through 2009, gradually returning to the 2 per cent target in the third quarter of 2011 as aggregate supply and demand return to balance. Total CPI inflation is expected to trough at -0.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2009 and return to target in the third quarter of 2011. While the underlying macroeconomic risks to the projection are roughly balanced, the Bank judges that, as a consequence of operating at the effective lower bound, the overall risks to its inflation projection are tilted slightly to the downside.

With monetary policy now operating at the effective lower bound for the overnight policy rate, it is appropriate to provide more explicit guidance than is usual regarding its future path so as to influence rates at longer maturities. Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target. The Bank will continue to provide such guidance in its scheduled interest rate announcements as long as the overnight rate is at the effective lower bound.

I am flabbergasted at the bolding. I certainly can’t remember seeing anything quite so explicit before, although I’m sure some professional Central Bank watchers will be able to supply other examples. There are certainly implications for the relative pricing of FixedFloaters and their paired Ratchets in this announcement!

Canada Prime followed the overnight rate fairly swiftly:

April 20, 2009

Monday, April 20th, 2009

Julia Dickson of OSFI gave a speech to the ABA clearly demonstrating her contempt for investors, the despised third pillar of the banking system. The role of investors – and their reliance on mandated disclosures – was, basically, ignored.

Bloomberg has reported on the Fed’s response to the controversy regarding the size and nature of its emergency actions:

Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker said Congress will probably review the authority granted to the Fed following the expansion in its assets.

“I don’t think the political system will tolerate the degree of activity that the Federal Reserve, in conjunction with the Treasury, has taken,” Volcker, head of President Barack Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board, said in remarks to the conference at Vanderbilt University.

U.S. lawmakers from both political parties, including House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, have expressed concern in recent months that the central bank has overstepped its authority by providing emergency credit.

In his speech, Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn said:

For the credit facilities that we make available to multiple firms, we are not taking significant credit risk that might end up being absorbed by the taxpayer. For almost all the loans made by the Federal Reserve, we look first to sound borrowers for repayment and then to underlying collateral. Moreover, we lend less than the value of the collateral, with the size of the “haircuts” depending on the riskiness of the collateral and on the availability of market prices for the collateral. Some of our lending programs involve nonrecourse loans that look primarily to the collateral rather than to the borrower for repayment in the event that the value of the collateral falls below the amount loaned. In these circumstances, we insist on taking only the very highest quality collateral, lend less than the face amount of the collateral, and typically have other sources to absorb any losses that might nonetheless occur–for example, Treasury capital for our lending against securitized loans.

Will These Policies Lead to a Future Surge in Inflation?
No, and the key to preventing inflation will be reversing the programs, reducing reserves, and raising interest rates in a timely fashion. Our balance sheet has grown rapidly, the amount of reserves has skyrocketed, and announced plans imply further huge increases in Federal Reserve assets and bank reserves. Nonetheless, the size of our balance sheet will not preclude our raising interest rates when that becomes appropriate for macroeconomic stability. Many of the liquidity programs are authorized only while circumstances in the economy and financial markets are “unusual and exigent,” and such programs will be terminated when conditions are no longer so adverse. Those programs and others have been designed to be unattractive in normal market conditions and will naturally wind down as markets improve.

All this is Central Banking 101; we have to rely on the Fed to execute the theory correctly – and this will be fodder for academic arguments for the next century.

Bloomberg notes that inflation concerns are driving down bill yields:

Rates on three-month bills turned negative in December for the first time since the government began selling them in 1929 as investors sacrificed returns to preserve principal. After increasing at the start of the year, rates have dropped 0.20 percentage point since the beginning of February to 0.13 percent on April 17.

Demand for bills is rising again because investors including foreign central banks are snapping up the shortest- term U.S. securities as the Federal Reserve buys Treasuries to drive down borrowing costs in a policy of so-called quantitative easing. China, the largest U.S. creditor, with $744 billion of debt, has questioned the practice and shifted purchases to bills from longer-maturity securities.

“There’s a group of investors out there who are looking at what the Fed is doing and the policy action they’ve taken and the asset purchases, and saying ultimately this is inflationary,” said Stuart Spodek, co-head of U.S. bonds in New York at BlackRock Inc., which manages $483 billion in debt. “You’re going to invest in very short-term bills because you absolutely need not just the quality but also the absolute liquidity.”

An alleged leak of the US bank stress tests has been touted on the Web but frankly, it doesn’t look too credible. We shall see!

Today’s excitement was the DBRS Mass Review-Negative of bank prefs; this was not released in time to have an effect on the market, but we will see what tomorrow brings.

The PerpetualDiscount winning-streak came to an end today; sorry folks, that was my fault. I shouldn’t have posted about it after Friday’s gain. The market was well behaved, with few individual issues showing price changes of much note, on continued good volume.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0583 % 955.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0583 % 1,544.4
Floater 5.11 % 5.13 % 66,620 15.28 2 -0.0583 % 1,193.1
OpRet 5.10 % 4.44 % 141,561 3.70 15 0.0322 % 2,132.0
SplitShare 6.67 % 8.82 % 45,464 5.64 3 0.0000 % 1,732.9
Interest-Bearing 6.15 % 9.99 % 26,637 0.67 1 -0.1025 % 1,937.5
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0150 % 1,631.0
Perpetual-Discount 6.69 % 6.80 % 145,691 12.83 71 -0.0150 % 1,502.1
FixedReset 5.93 % 5.29 % 681,946 7.63 35 0.0958 % 1,900.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BNA.PR.C SplitShare -2.21 % BAM Split has still not updated their NAV, so I’m still reporting the 1.7-:1 asset coverage figure from the February 28 NAV they do deign to provide.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.82
Bid-YTW : 13.75 %
HSB.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-20
Maturity Price : 17.56
Evaluated at bid price : 17.56
Bid-YTW : 7.21 %
SLF.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-20
Maturity Price : 15.65
Evaluated at bid price : 15.65
Bid-YTW : 7.20 %
BNS.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-20
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 6.47 %
GWO.PR.I Perpetual-Discount -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-20
Maturity Price : 16.32
Evaluated at bid price : 16.32
Bid-YTW : 6.98 %
NA.PR.N FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-20
Maturity Price : 24.25
Evaluated at bid price : 24.31
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.38
Bid-YTW : 7.77 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-20
Maturity Price : 24.26
Evaluated at bid price : 24.56
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %
RY.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-20
Maturity Price : 22.84
Evaluated at bid price : 22.98
Bid-YTW : 6.26 %
PWF.PR.J OpRet 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2010-05-30
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.65
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
NA.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-20
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 6.81 %
TD.PR.O Perpetual-Discount 1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-20
Maturity Price : 19.18
Evaluated at bid price : 19.18
Bid-YTW : 6.36 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset 1.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-20
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 23.26
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.L FixedReset 114,875 TD crossed 10,000 at 24.95; Nesbitt bought two blocks (13,900 & 10,000 shares) from National at 24.98; National crossed 30,000 at 24.99.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-20
Maturity Price : 24.85
Evaluated at bid price : 24.90
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
RY.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 75,370 Nesbitt bought 10,000 from TD at 17.98; Nesbitt crossed 28,000 at 18.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-20
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 6.38 %
MFC.PR.D FixedReset 57,043 Desjardins crossed 15,700 at 25.66.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 6.29 %
RY.PR.X FixedReset 50,326 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.80
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %
HSB.PR.E FixedReset 50,274 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.43
Bid-YTW : 6.35 %
BNS.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 44,625 Anonymous crossed (? Not necessarily the same anonymous on each side) 16,000 at 17.32.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-20
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 6.47 %
There were 37 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

All Bank Prefs & Innovative Tier 1 under Review-Negative by DBRS

Monday, April 20th, 2009

DBRS has announced that it:

has today placed the preferred shares and Tier 1 innovative instruments ratings of all the Canadian banks it rates Under Review with Negative Implications following changes made to the DBRS global banking methodology, which will be made public shortly, and the updated Enhanced Methodology for Bank Ratings – Intrinsic and Support Assessment. The changes in methodologies reflect the revision of our views on external support as it relates to preferred shares and the elevated risk of non-payment of preferred dividends relative to the risk of default indicated by senior debt ratings based on the more severe business environment being faced by global banks. They do not reflect any specific credit event at any of the listed institutions or related entities. Today’s actions apply only to the preferred shares and Tier 1 innovative instruments of the Canadian banks that DBRS rates; all other ratings are unaffected.

Under the previous Enhanced Methodology for Bank Ratings – Intrinsic and Support Assessment (for more details, refer to the press release dated October 6, 2006), many of the preferred shares and Tier 1 innovative instruments ratings of both the listed institutions and their related entities benefited from a one-notch uplift in October 2006. The primary factor that has led DBRS to rethink our support assessment methodology as it applies to preferred shares and Tier 1 innovative instruments is recent actions taken in other jurisdictions that demonstrate no systemic external support for preferred shares.

Historically, DBRS’s Rating Banks in Canada methodology resulted in a generally fixed relationship between the different securities of the same banking entity, with preferred shares ratings being notched down from the senior unsecured debt rating level. The changes in the methodologies have increased the base notching at even the strongest rating categories and the base notching also now expands as the credit quality of the bank migrates downward. Within this approach, there exists greater flexibility to adjust the notching for factors that reflect the position of individual banks. Canadian Tier 1 innovative instruments, as they are typically convertible into preferred shares, will continue to be rated in line with preferred shares.

Our review will consider the revised global banking methodology in light of the fact that neither the Canadian financial system nor Canadian banks have exhibited the types of stress that have been witnessed with many other banks. Should rating downgrades be the result of our review for Canadian banks, DBRS does not expect the downgrades to be as severe as the actions DBRS has recently taken with ratings in the U.S. banking sector. For more information on the U.S. banking downgrades, please see the related press releases at www.dbrs.com.

The applicable methodologies are Rating Banks in Canada and Enhanced Methodology for Bank Ratings – Intrinsic and Support Assessment, which can be found on the DBRS website under Methodologies.

They provide a link to the methodology. The mass-upgrade of October 2006 and its effect on the yield curve were discussed on PrefBlog.

Well! Here’s some excitement in PrefLand! They did a mass downgrade of US financial preferreds today as well:

  • Morgan Stanley
  • CIT Group Inc.
  • Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., The
  • Bank of America Corporation
  • KeyCorp
  • Zions Bancorporation
  • U.S. Bancorp
  • Fifth Third Bancorp
  • SunTrust Banks, Inc.
  • Huntington Bancshares Inc.
  • Webster Financial Corporation
  • New York Community Bank
  • CBG Florida REIT Corp.

Update, 2009-4-21: DBRS inadverdently left the HSBC HaTS off the Review-Negative list; they have now been added.

In a Mass Downgrade of European Hybrids they note:

banks and their regulators in Europe and elsewhere have become much more focused on conserving capital, particularly common equity, which may be achieved in part by the suspension of preferred dividends. Today’s action also reflects the increasing importance being placed on common equity in the capital structure by regulators and the financial markets that could lead to adverse action on preferreds. One consequence is that the starting point in rating preferred shares and hybrids becomes the intrinsic assessment, rather than the final rating, which benefits from implicit systemic support by typically a notch for SA2 banks. Preferred shares and hybrids are very unlikely to benefit from systemic support and do not benefit from any implied support. The application of DBRS’s methodology has resulted in a generally fixed relationship across rating categories between preferreds and senior issuer ratings, with some flexibility. Today’s actions reflect a revision to DBRS’s methodology whereby the notching has been increased at even the strongest rating categories and expanded as the credit quality of a bank migrates downwards. Within this approach, there remains the flexibility to adjust the notching for factors that reflect the position of individual banks.

Kansas City Fed Examines TIPS Liquidity

Saturday, April 18th, 2009

The Kansas City Fed has released its 1Q09 Economic Review, with articles:

Again, the Kansas City Fed has copy-protected their PDF … perhaps some kind soul will unlock it for me and send me a copy. One source of liquidity is steady, predictable supply of new issues.

Two Weeks Until Seminar on Floating Rate Preferreds

Friday, April 17th, 2009

I just want to remind all Assiduous Readers about the next seminar in the the series on the theory and practice of preferred share investing.

These seminars are aimed at active and potential preferred share investors who wish to review relative valuation techniques in preferred share analysis.

All seminars will be presented by James Hymas, who has written extensively on the subject of preferred share investment and has been referred to as a "top expert" on the subject.

Questions are encouraged throughout the seminars, as well as in informal discussion at the end of the session.

Each seminar is two hours in length; coffee and tea will be served. The cost of attendance is $100, but a discount of $50 will be given to participants who have an annual subscription to PrefLetter with at least one issue remaining at the time of the seminar.

All seminars will be video-recorded for future distribution.

Thursday, April 30

Floating Rate Issues: Theory & Practice

"Floating Rate Issues" are popular with investors who:

  • wish to obtain tax-advantaged income
  • want protection against future inflation

These issues are characterized by:

  • Issued by Operating companies
    • Extant issues are non-financial
  • Dividends are paid by reference to Canada Prime
  • An exchange option may exist to lock in a rate for five years on a given date
  • Issues are Perpetual

This seminar will review the theory of Floating Rate Preferred evaluation, including:

  • Credit Quality
  • Embedded calls
  • Exchange Options
  • The importance of ex-Dividend dates
  • Investment characteristics relative to
    • money market instruments
    • other perpetual instruments

Examples of relative valuation in current markets will be supplied and discussed. Note that Floating Rate issues include the HIMIPref™ Indices:

  • Ratchet
  • FixedFloater
  • Floater

. "FixedReset" issues will not be discussed as part of this seminar.

Attendence is limited; a reservation will avoid disappointment.

Location: Days Hotel & Conference Center, (at Carlton & College, downtown Toronto) Yorkville Room (see map).

Time: April 30, 2009, 6pm-8pm.

Reservations: Please visit the PrefLetter Seminar Page.

Prior Seminars on Video: The video and resource materials for the seminar on PerpetualDiscounts is available via the PrefLetter Video Seminar Page.

Market Rally: Nearly Back to September Levels

Friday, April 17th, 2009

I have graphed the performance of the HIMIPref™ indices back to August 29 … remember that these are Total Return indices, not Price Indices.

April 17, 2009

Friday, April 17th, 2009

The first round of the Abitibi CDS auction showed extremely low recovery:

Credit-default swaps traders set an initial value of 3.75 cents on the dollar for bonds of an AbitibiBowater Inc. unit to settle derivatives linked to the newsprint maker that’s now in bankruptcy protection.

Royal Bank has announced:

that it expects to record a goodwill impairment charge (on both a pre and after tax basis) of approximately US$850 million for the second quarter ending April 30, 2009. While the charge will reduce second quarter reported earnings by approximately US$850 million, it is a non-cash item and an accounting adjustment, and will not affect our ongoing operations, or our Tier 1 and Total capital ratios.

It does not affect the capital ratios because goodwill is already deducted from capital. The market yawned. What a difference six months makes, eh? If this announcement had been made at the height of the panic, Royal Bank stock … might have felt some effects.

Yet another strong day on elevated volume.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 2.0238 % 955.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 2.0238 % 1,545.3
Floater 5.11 % 5.13 % 70,028 15.30 2 2.0238 % 1,193.8
OpRet 5.10 % 4.34 % 143,663 3.87 15 0.2687 % 2,131.3
SplitShare 6.67 % 9.36 % 47,273 5.64 3 0.3616 % 1,732.9
Interest-Bearing 6.15 % 9.71 % 27,727 0.68 1 0.4115 % 1,939.5
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4645 % 1,631.3
Perpetual-Discount 6.69 % 6.80 % 146,750 12.85 71 0.4645 % 1,502.4
FixedReset 5.93 % 5.38 % 687,638 4.57 35 0.1668 % 1,898.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 14.28
Evaluated at bid price : 14.28
Bid-YTW : 8.44 %
GWO.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 21.41
Evaluated at bid price : 21.41
Bid-YTW : 6.97 %
TD.PR.Y FixedReset -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 22.74
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
BAM.PR.I OpRet -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2013-12-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.02
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %
CU.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 23.48
Evaluated at bid price : 23.75
Bid-YTW : 6.41 %
MFC.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 17.80
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 6.62 %
NA.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 22.20
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 6.74 %
CU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 22.77
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 6.40 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 24.05
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
PWF.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 7.02 %
CM.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 17.90
Evaluated at bid price : 17.90
Bid-YTW : 6.74 %
GWO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 17.70
Evaluated at bid price : 17.70
Bid-YTW : 6.93 %
BNS.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 17.86
Evaluated at bid price : 17.86
Bid-YTW : 6.33 %
CM.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 17.53
Evaluated at bid price : 17.53
Bid-YTW : 6.74 %
IGM.PR.A OpRet 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2009-07-30
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.37
Bid-YTW : 1.39 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 8.61
Evaluated at bid price : 8.61
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
IAG.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 15.92
Evaluated at bid price : 15.92
Bid-YTW : 7.32 %
GWO.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 16.52
Evaluated at bid price : 16.52
Bid-YTW : 6.89 %
CM.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 1.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 20.45
Evaluated at bid price : 20.45
Bid-YTW : 6.89 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 2.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 20.31
Evaluated at bid price : 20.31
Bid-YTW : 6.81 %
SLF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 2.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 16.16
Evaluated at bid price : 16.16
Bid-YTW : 7.05 %
CL.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 2.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 22.32
Evaluated at bid price : 22.60
Bid-YTW : 6.99 %
TD.PR.Q Perpetual-Discount 2.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 21.96
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 6.38 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 2.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 8.53
Evaluated at bid price : 8.53
Bid-YTW : 5.17 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet 2.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.60
Bid-YTW : 7.61 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.X FixedReset 87,046 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.86
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %
RY.PR.N FixedReset 82,200 TD bought 21,000 from Anonymous at 26.42. The HIMIPref™ calculation of YTW will be controversial, but it is the same situation as has been previously discussed.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 23.56
Evaluated at bid price : 26.40
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
RY.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 72,465 TD crossed 15,000 at 18.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-17
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 6.37 %
RY.PR.T FixedReset 59,436 Scotia bought two blocks of 10,000 shares each from National, both at 25.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
MFC.PR.D FixedReset 55,069 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.70
Bid-YTW : 6.19 %
CM.PR.M FixedReset 51,520 Desjardins bought 16,500 from RBC at 25.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.84
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
There were 43 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

POW Issues 30-Year Debs at 8.577%

Friday, April 17th, 2009

Power Corporation has announced:

that it has priced the issuance of an aggregate principal amount of $400 million debentures (the “Debentures”) consisting of $250 million principal amount of 7.57% debentures due April 22, 2019 (the “10 Year Debentures”) and $150 million principal amount of 8.57% debentures due April 22, 2039 (the “30 Year Debentures”). The Debentures will be offered through a group of agents to be led by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and Scotia Capital Inc.

The 30 Year Debentures will be dated April 20, 2009 and will mature on April 22, 2039. Interest on the 30 Year Debentures at the rate of 8.57% per annum will be payable semi-annually in arrears in April and October in each year, commencing October 22, 2009, until April 22, 2039. The 30 Year Debentures have been priced to provide a yield to maturity of 8.577%.

The credit rating for senior unsecured Power debentures assigned by S&P is A and by DBRS is A(High)

The offering of Debentures is expected to close on or about April 20, 2009. The net proceeds will be used to supplement the Corporation’s financial resources and for general corporate purposes.

IIROC has not yet issued a ruling regarding whether or not this price is fair, so investors of all kinds will just have to guess … if they’re allowed to buy it at all.

At the close last night, Power’s PerpetualDiscounts were quoted at:

Power PerpetualDiscounts
Quotations for 2009-4-16 Close
Ticker Price Quote Yield-To-Worst
POW.PR.A 20.12-23 7.02%-6.98%
POW.PR.B 18.84-99 7.16%-7.10%
POW.PR.C 20.95-01 6.98%-6.96%
POW.PR.D 18.01-11 7.00%-6.96%

So let’s say that the indicative bid-side YTW for a generic POW PerpetualDiscount is 7% … at the standard equivalency factor of 1.4x, this is equivalent to 9.80% as interest, implying a pre-tax interest-equivalent spread of a mere 122bp. These bonds look cheap to me. Relative to the Preferreds, anyway, even after giving the Prefs a bonus for their capital gains potential!

Update, 2009-4-19: Note that this issue has a Canada Call:

“Canada Yield Price” for any Debentures, means a price equal to the price of such Debentures calculated to provide an annual yield from the date of redemption to April 22, 2019 in the case of the 2019 Debentures and April 22, 2039 in the case of the 2039 Debentures, equal to the Government of Canada Yield plus 116 basis points for the 2019 Debentures and 122.5 basis points for the 2039 Debentures, compounded semi-annually and calculated in accordance with generally accepted financial practice on the business day preceding the date on which the Corporation gives notice of redemption pursuant to the Trust Indentures.

“Government of Canada Yield” on any date means the yield to maturity on such date, compounded semiannually and calculated in accordance with generally accepted financial practice, which a non-callable Government of Canada Bond would carry if issued, in Canadian dollars in Canada, at 100% of its principal amount on such date with a term to maturity equal to the remaining term to April 22, 2019, in the case of the 2019 Debentures and April 22, 2039, in the case of the 2039 Debentures. In calculating the Government of Canada Yield for purposes of a redemption of the Debentures, the Corporation will use the average of the yields provided by two major Canadian investment dealers selected by the Corporation.

Power may, at its option, redeem the Debentures in whole or in part from time to time, on not less than 30 nor more
than 60 days’ prior notice to the registered holder, at a redemption price which is equal to the greater of the Canada Yield Price (as defined herein) and par, together in each case with accrued and unpaid interest to the date fixed for redemption. In cases of partial redemption, the Debentures to be redeemed will be selected by the Trustee (as defined herein) pro rata or in such other manner as it shall deem appropriate. Any Debentures that are redeemed by the Corporation will be cancelled and will not be reissued.

There is also Change of Control protection:

The Trust Indentures will each contain provisions to the effect that if a Change of Control Triggering Event (as defined below) occurs, unless the Corporation has exercised its optional right to redeem all of the Debentures, the Corporation will be required to make an offer to repurchase all or, at the option of each Debentureholder, any part (equal to $1,000 or an integral multiple thereof) of each Debentureholder’s Debentures pursuant to the offer described below (the “Change of Control Offer”), at a purchase price payable in cash equal to 101% of the outstanding principal amount of Debentures together with accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to the date of purchase.

There is also credit rating protection:

“Rating Event” means the rating on the Debentures is lowered to below an Investment Grade Rating by each of the Specified Rating Agencies, if there are less than three Specified Rating Agencies, or by two out of three of the Specified Rating Agencies, if there are three Specified Rating Agencies (the “Required Threshold”), on any day within the 60-day period (which 60-day period will be extended so long as the rating of the Debentures is under publicly announced consideration for a possible downgrade by such number of the Specified Rating Agencies which, together with Specified Rating Agencies which have already lowered their ratings on the Debentures as aforesaid, would aggregate in number the Required Threshold, but only to the extent that, and for so long as, a Change of Control Triggering Event would result if such downgrade were to occur) after the earlier of (a) the occurrence of a Change of Control and (b) public notice of the occurrence of a Change of Control or of the Corporation’s intention or agreement to effect a Change of Control.

Update, 2009-4-20: Closed on schedule.

IIROC Publishes Proposed Retail Bond Rules

Friday, April 17th, 2009

The Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada has announced:

a proposed rule and guidance note to address fair pricing of over-the-counter (OTC) traded securities including fixed income securities such as bonds. The proposal would amend existing trade confirmation requirements by mandating yield disclosure for fixed income securities. It will require firms to disclose on confirmations sent to retail clients for OTC transactions if the dealer’s remuneration has been added to the price in the case of a purchase or deducted in the case of a sale. The general purpose of these proposed amendments is to enhance the fairness of pricing and transparency of OTC market transactions.

The text of the proposed rule states that, generally speaking:

the proposed amendments will:
• Require Dealer Members to fairly and reasonably price securities traded in OTC markets;
• Require Dealer Members to disclose yield to maturity on trade confirmations for fixed-income securities and notations for callable and variable rate securities; and
• Require Dealer Members to include on trade confirmations sent to retail clients in respect of OTC transactions a statement indicating that they have earned remuneration on those transactions unless the amount of any mark-up or mark-down, commissions and other service charges is disclosed on the confirmation.

These are rules only a regulator could love. They note, for instance, that:

the pricing mechanisms used for fixed income securities are less understood by retail clients. Specifically, retail clients may not understand the inverse relationship between price and yield or the various factors that can affect yield calculations and the relative risk of a particular fixed income security. All these factors contribute to the difficulty retail investors are faced with when determining whether a particular fixed income security is fairly priced (and therefore offers an appropriate yield) and of appropriate risk. IIROC therefore wishes to underscore the responsibility of Dealer Member firms to use their professional judgment and market expertise to diligently ascertain and provide fair prices to clients in all circumstances, particularly in situations where the Dealer Member must determine inferred market price because the most recent market price does not accurately reflect market value of that security.

If a client does not understand the inverse relationship between price and yield, THE CLIENT SHOULD NOT BE BUYING BONDS. Full stop.

The underlying purpose of the rules may be deduced from:

Market regulators’ surveillance of fixed income market activity will provide the tools to monitor for patterns and trends in prices and will allow regulators to more effectively identify price outliers. IIROC is currently considering how best to implement such a system to monitor our Dealer Members’ OTC security (both fixed income and equity) trading, which would allow IIROC to identify circumstances where trade prices do not correspond with the prevailing market at that time.

In other words, somebody at IIROC wants to expand his empire. Or, maybe, has looked at his career prospects and decided that a good future job title would be “Compliance Manager, Retail Bond Desk, Very Big Brokerage Inc.”

Rules 2 (Yield disclosure) and 3 (Compensation disclosure) are derisory; the latter simply requires a statement that the dealer is making money (or hoping to, anyway), something that most people are able to deduce from the fact that the confirmations already state that it’s a principal transaction.

Rule 1, however, is more complex. IIROC has drafted a Guidance Note:

When executing an OTC trade as agent for a customer, a Dealer Member will have to use diligence to ascertain a fair price. For example, in the context of an illiquid security this “reasonable efforts” requirement may require the Dealer Member to canvass various parties to source the availability and the price of the specific security. Passive acceptance of the first price quoted to a Dealer Member executing an agency transaction will not be sufficient.

This will kill the market, such as it is. Why would they bother, when they can just say “No offer” or “No bid”? If they do bother, and they do go through this canvassing process, and they do charge a fair price for their efforts, is the price still going to be halfway reasonable? I doubt it.

Most insidiously:

It is important to note that the fair pricing responsibility of Dealer Members requires attention both to the market value of the security as well as to the reasonableness of compensation. Excessive commissions, mark-ups or mark-downs obviously may cause a violation of the fair pricing standards described above. However, it is also possible for a Dealer Member to restrict its profit on transactions to reasonable levels and still violate the Rule because of inattention to market value. For example, a Dealer Member may fail to assess the market value of a security when acquiring it from another dealer or customer and in consequence may pay a price well above market value. It would be a violation of fair pricing responsibilities for the Dealer Member to pass on this misjudgment to another customer, as either principal or agent, even if the Dealer Member makes little or no profit on the trade.

So, in other words, you could make a good faith misjudgement of a market price – such as, for instance, a bond market professional makes all the time – and be subject to regulatory action. Not to mention being liable (forever) for the difference between the price at which you offset the client transaction and the price some regulator decides is fair.

Just in case there are some people out their with the belief that these rules might actually result in a net improvement to the retail bond market:

IIROC expects Dealer Members to maintain adequate documentation to support the pricing of OTC securities transactions. In most instances, existing transactions records, including audio recordings, will allow Dealer Members to reconstruct the basis on which an OTC transaction price was determined to be fair, and will therefore suffice for purposes of supporting the fairness of a transaction. IIROC anticipates that hard-to-value transactions, are likely to require additional supporting documentation. Proper documentation of such transactions may be the subject of IIROC trading reviews, and the failure to maintain documentation to support the fairness of pricing of hard-to-value transactions will be a consideration in any potential enforcement actions.

It is rather sweet that IIROC believes we can reach a Nirvana through imposition of more rules, but all this stuff simply betrays total lack of comprehension of how the bond market – retail or institutional – works. These rules are the product of people who have never in their lives got on the ‘phone in a cold sweat and said “Done”; it is the product of people who believe they know everything on the basis of their two-year Ryerson certificate in Boxtickingology.

My brief remarks when the gist of the rules was leaked on April 14 attracted comments, both on the post and in my eMail. One Assiduous Reader writes in and says:

I have a similar observation over the few years for bond with short maturity (1 – 5 years). Could you explain some of the factors why retail brokerages seem to be offering a better deal on GIC? Is the difference between a retail bond offering and a GIC the cost of “liquidity” (ability to sell before maturity) and the markup by the brokerage?

GICs are completely easy for the brokerages to offer. They get a feed from the issuer showing the rates, they can offer all they like at those rates in any wierd quantity desired, they get a commission, click, bang, done. A little bit of profit, no market exposure at any time for the brokerage, and the so-called trader can be any eighteen year old teller with the requisite CSI course.

Best of all, when the issuer runs into difficulties and gets its name in the headlines, they don’t have to deal with thousands of desperate, angry, confused clients who don’t understand why the brokerage doesn’t want to buy back every single piece of paper they’ve ever sold at the original price.

There has also been some discussion on Financial WebRing:

On the other hand, we require all sorts of disclosures for mutual fund investors, presumably targeted at unsophisticated investors. If that holds for mutual funds, why not for bonds?

Because mutual funds are sold on the basis that you are hiring somebody – and paying them – to exercise their best efforts. Bonds are sold on the basis that you don’t want to pay exhorbitant management fees on something so simple as bonds, and are therefore buying them yourself as principal and saving all kinds of money, yay!

Definitely agree that bonds should be on more of a transparent exchange than presently. If more complicated forms of debt such as pref shares and debentures can be exchange-traded, why not plain and simple bonds?

Because there are thousands and thousands and thousands of bonds, all but a few of which trade by appointment only. I don’t want to pay listing fees for something that’s going to trade three times a year; you can if you like.

Update: I was quoted by Bloomberg:

“The net effect of these proposed rules will be to decrease the choice of retail offerings even further,” said James Hymas, a fixed-income and preferred-share specialist at Hymas Investment Management Inc. in Toronto. “There’s a lot of overhead for the brokers. They may simply choose to limit the number of offerings they make.”