Category: Index Construction / Reporting

Data Changes

BNS.PR.L Gets a Solid Reception

BNS.PR.L commenced trading today, after having been announced January 8. Scotia announced today that the underwriters’ over-allotment privilege had been exercised to the tune of 1.8 million shares, bringing the total size of the issue to 13.8 million shares valued at $345-million.

The issue traded a healthy 387,831 shares in a range of 24.98-08. The closing quotation was 25.07-09, 67×50.

There may be a little more value left in this issue, as HIMIPref™ calculates a curvePrice of $25.26:

Curve Price Comparison
After-tax Curve
Component BNS.PR.L BNS.PR.K
Price due to base-rate 23.19  24.07
Price due to short-term 0.04  0.04
Price due to long-term 0.57  0.58
Price due to Liquidity 1.50  0.67
Price due to error -0.03  -0.01
Curve Price 25.26 25.34
Closing Quote 25.07-09  25.91-97
Annual Dividend 1.125 1.200
Yield-to-Worst (Pre-Tax)  4.48%  4.24%
Yield-to-Worst (Post-Tax) 3.56%  3.37%
YTW Call-Date 2016-05-27  2014-05-28

The securityCode for this issue is A41009, replacing the preIssue code of P75004. A reorgDataEntry has been created to reflect this change.

The issue has been added to the “PerpetualPremium” Index as of 1/24.

Data Changes

No Surprises on RY.PR.E First Day of Trading

This was pretty much a carbon copy of the BMO.PR.J opening last Wednesday. Volume was 313,249 trading in a range of 24.85-95 – which was below the issue price, which is eventually going to annoy the buyers of these new issues!

It closed at 24.90-92, 17×338, and looks reasonably attractive there. When I look at the curvePrice according to the yieldCurve calculated for taxable accounts, I get:

RY.PR.E Taxable Curve Price
Component Value
Price due to base-rate 23.30
Price due to short-term 0.04
Price due to long-term 0.49
Price due to Liquidity 1.48
Price due to error -0.03
Total 25.28

At the closing bid of $24.90, the issue has a pre-tax bid-yieldToWorst of 4.53%, based on a limitMaturity.

The issue has been added to the PerpetualDiscount index.

The securityCode for this issue is A45014 and a reorgDataEntry has been processed to reflect the change from the preIssue code of P87000.

Update (for linking!) 2007-01-27 : This issue was announced on January 10.

Data Changes

BMO.PR.J : First Day Uneventful

The BMO New Issue settled today and there wasn’t much of a surprise. The trading range was 24.90-98 on volume of 371,320 shares; the closing quote was 25.96-98, 25×35.

This issue has been fully entered into the HIMIPref™ database – the securityCode is A40006, and a reorgDataEntry has been posted to reflect the change from the preIssue code of P25004.

Update : The issue has been added to the PerpetualDiscount Index.

Index Construction / Reporting

Mean-YTW on SplitShare Index Goes Negative!

As noted on the January 9, 2007 Market Action report, the mean-yield-to-worst on the Split Share index has now gone negative.

This is due to the exceptional performance of DIV.PR.A, which had a stellar bid/bid return today of +1.2128%, despite the fact that it is currently callable at prices well below its current quotation. Will the market never learn?

Even after the recent call for redemption of the CVF.PR.A shares (under the same management as DIV.PR.A), people still do these things. If I thought that they were knowingly taking the risk, having explicitly taken a view on the likelihood of redemtption, it wouldn’t bother me so much … but that’s not what I think and I am bothered.

A portfolio evaluation of the split-share index as of today is available here.

Index Construction / Reporting

December 2006 : The Month in Review

Index December Total Return
Ratchet +1.56%
FixedFloater +0.85%
Floater -0.21%
OpRet +0.08%
SplitShare +0.32%
InterestBearing +0.99%
PerpetualPremium +0.34%
PerpetualDiscount +1.08%

 

The indices have now been rebalanced. Changes are

Ticker From Index To Index Reason
PWF.PR.A Floater Scraps Volume
PWF.PR.D OpRet Scraps Volume
BAM.PR.I Scraps OpRet Volume
SXT.PR.A Scraps SplitShare Volume
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount PerpetualPremium Price
BAM.PR.M PerpetualDiscount PerpetualPremium Price
IAG.PR.A PerpetualDiscount PerpetualPremium Price
RY.PR.D PerpetualPremium New Issue, 12/13
FBS.PR.B SplitShares New Issue, 12/15
FBS.PR.A Scraps Redeemed, 12/15

More details will be added to this post shortly.

Update : Notable performances in December were:

Issue Index Performance
TCA.PR.X PerpetualPremium -1.5349%
WN.PR.B OpRet -1.5298%
WN.PR.C PerpetualPremium -1.2424%
WN.PR.D PerpetualPremium -1.2314%
BMO.PR.G OpRet -1.2002%
BSD.PR.A InterestBearing +2.1407%
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +2.2634%
PWF.PR.K PerpetualPremium +2.3561%
CM.PR.G PerpetualPremium +2.3605%
STW.PR.A InterestBearing +2.4835%

Not a very pleasant month for the Weston issues, presumably due to the 9-figure charge against inventory.

Update & Bump: The rebalanced indices have been uploaded here.

Index Construction / Reporting

November, 2006 : The Month in Review

Index November
Total
Return
Ratchet +0.11%
FixedFloater +0.30%
Floater +1.56%
OpRet +1.13%
SplitShare +1.70%
InterestBearing -0.29%
PerpetualPremium +1.02%
PerpetualDiscount +1.33%

The worst index-included issue for the month was MST.PR.A, an income-trust-backed interest-bearing issue that lost 1.52% on the month and now has a pre-tax YTW of 5.56% based on a bid of $10.34 and a maturity 2009-9-30.

There were a number of index-included issues with superb monthly performance, led by ACO.PR.A +3.75% (I don’t understand it – see November 29 – it’s trading a lot, but the yield is very low), closely followed by FFN.PR.A +3.49% (which is simply ridiculous.

The pre-rebalancing preliminary indices can be downloaded here. Note that everything in this is subject to change as my final indices get caught up.

Update & bump, 2006-12-01 : The indices have now been rebalanced. Changes are

Ticker From Index To Index Reason
BC.PR.E Ratchet Scraps Volume
CGI.PR.C SplitShares Scraps Volume
BAM.PR.I OpRet Scraps Volume
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount PerpetualPremium Price
CM.PR.I PerpetualDiscount PerpetualPremium Price
WN.PR.E PerpetualDiscount PerpetualPremium Price
BAM.PR.M PerpetualDiscount New Issue, 11/20
CM.PR.I PerpetualDiscount New Issue, 11/15
RY.PR.C PerpetualPremium New Issue, 11/1

 

The revised indices can be downloaded here.

Index Construction / Reporting

Yield on Retractibles Index Goes Negative!

Well, it had to happen sometime … the headline event has occurred.

It is, I admit, a bit of a crock – only three of the 18 members of the index have negative yields-to-worst. Due to the very short term-to-worst for these three issues (BMO.PR.G, RY.PR.K and BMO.PR.I) it doesn’t take very much of a price change to change the yield drastically. Since the averages I’m currently reporting are the means, this means that a few large negatives can drag down the whole index. The HIMI Preferred Indices, currently only compiled until January 1996 (but gaining fast!) will report the median averages.

Still, it’s a landmark! Those who like preferreds, but are not so fond of sub-zero yields, may wish to consider buying high-premium perpetuals … the high coupon on these makes it more likely they will be called, mitigating (but not eliminating!) the risk of having to hold a perpetual when you don’t want to. See How Long is Forever?, where I introduce some arithmetic to the question.

To get you started, I’m attaching “Portfolio Evaluations” of three of the indices:

OpRet

SplitShare

PerpetualPremium

Data Changes

BAM.PR.M Disappoints on Opening

The Brookfield new issue closed today and dropped to a closing quotation of $24.59-60 on heavy volume of 395,480 shares.

At this price I like it more than BAM.PR.J – but not by enough (quite!) to perform the swap.

The issue has been added to the HIMIPref™ database with the securityCode A41222, as a reorg out of the pre-issue code, P25003.

It has been added to the PerpetualDiscount Index as of 2006-11-20

Data Changes

ELF.PR.G Holds its Own!

Somewhat to my surprise, the E-L Financial new issue was able to show some strength on its opening day, closing at 25.15-22 on volume of 135,325 shares.

Curve Price Analysis of ELF.PR.G
Component Taxable Curve Non-taxable Curve
Base-Rate 23.87 23.71
Short-Term 0.10 0.92
Long-Term 0.54 0.02
Credit Spread (2) -0.52 -0.68
Credit Spread (Low) -0.52 -0.68
Error 0.06 0.08
Intrinsic Price 23.53 23.37
Liquidity 1.51 1.50
Total Curve Price 25.04 24.87

This one looks fully priced – and that’s fully priced at best, because there’s a big chunk of liquidity value in the analysis. I suspect that as liquidity goes away, the market value of the shares will decrease, as the market comes to realize that a Pfd-2(low) [DBRS] issue should not be trading a mere 7bp yield higher than, for example, POW.PR.D.

This issue has been added to the HIMIPref™ database with a security code of A43087, replacing the Pre-Issue code of P25002. It has also been added to the PerpetualPremium Index.

Data Changes

Strong Opening for LBS.PR.A

As readers of my earlier post may have expected, LBS.PR.A had a very strong opening day, with 1,671,290 shares trading and closing at 10.55-59.

There may be more to come, as the following HIMIPref™ analysis indicates:

Curve Price Analysis of LBS.PR.A
Component Taxable Curve Non-taxable Curve
Base-Rate 10.35 10.26
Short-Term 0.13 0.56
Long-Term 0.33 0.01
Split-Share -0.26 -0.32
Retractible 0.34 0.44
Credit Spread (2) -0.08 -0.11
Error -0.01 0.00
Intrinsic Price 10.80 10.84
Liquidity 0.23 0.25
Total Curve Price 11.03 11.09

The estimate for the liquidity value is, as with all new issues, a little dicey – especially for a split-share issue, there is no guarantee that a huge liquidity premium will be sustained in the long run … in fact, there is a strong possibility of the opposite! But with an intrinsic value in the neighborhood of $10.80, it would appear there’s still some value left in the issue.

For those interested in more traditional measures, the pre-tax YTW of this issue is 4.34%, with a modified duration of 5.97, both measurements based on a maturity on 2013-11-29.

The issue has been added to the HIMIPref™ database with a security code of A47800, replacing the pre-issue code of P50004. It has also been added to the SplitShare Index.