Issue Comments

YCM.PR.A and YCM.PR.B: Large Partial Redemption

Quadravest has announced:

New Commerce Split (the “Company”) announced today that it will redeem 1,011,720 Class I Preferred Shares (YCM.PR.A) and 1,011,720 Class II Preferred Shares (YCM.PR.B) for cash redemption on January 5, 2015. This redemption represents approximately 36.91% of the outstanding Preferred Shares and allows the Company to fulfill the requirement to maintain an equal number of shares of all classes after holders of 1,011,720 Capital Shares (YCM) exercised their 2014 Special Retraction rights. The 2014 Special Retraction right was given to all shareholders in connection with the extension of the termination date from December 1, 2014 to December 1, 2019 as approved at the May 14, 2014 Special Meeting of Shareholders.

The Class I and Class II Preferred Shares will be redeemed on a pro rata basis, so that Preferred Shareholders of record on the close of business on December 31, 2014 will have approximately 36.91% of their Preferred Shares redeemed. The redemption price of $5.00 per Class I Preferred Share and $5.00 per Class II Preferred Share will be paid on January 5, 2015. Holders of Class I and Class II Preferred Shares that have been called for redemption will be entitled to receive the regular monthly dividends declared for the December 31, 2014 record date, payable January 9, 2015.

The net asset value per unit as of the close of business on December 17, 2014 was $11.35 per unit after giving effect to the Capital Shares Special Retraction payment and the Class I and Class II Preferred Share redemption. Preferred shares are only redeemable by the Company on the set redemption dates, the next such date being December 1, 2019.

YCM.PR.A and YCM.PR.B were last mentioned on PrefBlog in connection with the recent warrant expiry (it doesn’t look like there was much, if any, exercise – the news page has no announcement). YCM.PR.A and YCM.PR.B are not tracked by HIMIPref™.

Market Action

December 16, 2014

How ’bout that ruble, eh?

After the single worst day in Russia’s nine-month-old financial crisis, the fallout is spreading across global markets.

Pacific Investment Management Co. (PEBIX) is facing mounting losses on its Russian bond holdings; almost every bullish ruble option contract registered in the U.S. has been made worthless; and foreign-exchange brokers in New York and London told clients they’re no longer taking ruble trades. Sergey Shvetsov, a first deputy central bank governor, expressed astonishment at the scope of the collapse during a business conference in Moscow.

“We couldn’t imagine what’s happening in our worst nightmare even a year ago,” Shvetsov, who oversees financial markets at the central bank, said yesterday. He said the bank’s surprise interest-rate increase in the middle of the night, a 6.5 percentage-point move that failed to stem the run on the ruble yesterday, was a choice between a “very bad” option and and a “very, very bad” option.

The ruble sank beyond 80 per dollar, a record low, as panic swept across Moscow’s financial markets before it rebounded after Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev denied speculation the government would impose restrictions to stop Russians from converting cash into dollars. The currency ended the day at 67.9 per dollar, down 5.4 percent on the day, while bonds and stocks also tumbled, sending the RTS equity gauge down the most since 2008.

Russians have long experience of state-run media:

Russians like Vladimir Rudenkov from Voronezh, a city about 500 kilometers (311 miles) from Moscow, were ignoring the government-media assurances and taking action. Rudenkov transfered a portion of his savings into dollars this morning and said he regretted that he didn’t transfer it all.

“The situation is catastrophic,” said Rudenkov, a 35-year-old manager. “I don’t believe that the ruble collapse is happening only due to the falling oil prices. The government is the one to blame as it didn’t defend the national currency.”

The BoC has published a paper by George J. Jiang, Ingrid Lo and Giorgio Valente titled High-Frequency Trading around Macroeconomic News Announcements: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market:

This paper investigates high-frequency (HF) market and limit orders in the U.S. Treasury market around major macroeconomic news announcements. BrokerTec introduced i-Cross at the end of 2007 and we use this exogenous event as an instrument to analyze the impact of HF activities on liquidity and price efficiency. Our results show that HF activities have a negative effect on liquidity around economic announcements: they widen spreads during the pre-announcement period and lower depth on the order book during the post-announcement period. The negative impact on liquidity mainly derives from HF trades. Nonetheless, HF trades improve price efficiency during both the preannouncement and post-announcement periods.

Intact Financial Corporation, proud issuer of IFC.PR.A and IFC.PR.C, has been confirmed at Pfd-2(low) by DBRS:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today confirmed Intact Financial Corporation’s (Intact or the Company) Issuer Rating at A (low), Senior Unsecured Debt at A (low) and Non-Cumulative Preferred Shares at Pfd-2 (low). The trends are Stable.

The Company’s operating subsidiaries are among the strongest performers in the Canadian property and casualty insurance industry, achieving underwriting profits and obtaining above-industry return on capital results. The Company’s overall underwriting performance hinges on tightening benefits, reducing exposures, scale and analysis, which allows it to identify and price risks by mining its extensive database. Scale also enhances the ability of the Company to keep claims costs lower than those of its peer group and to more efficiently service its multi-channel distribution networks. Recent efforts to increase pricing in firmer commercial markets, to tighten benefits and to reduce earthquake exposures should improve the Company’s performance after three years of elevated catastrophic claims. An efficient capital structure keeps the Company’s overall financial leverage within bounds, and it has seen improving financial leverage ratios since 2011. There is a possibility of acquisition activity increasing the financial leverage if financed with debt.

DBRS calculates Intact’s annualized return on equity for the first nine months of 2014 to be 16.2%, a positive result benefiting from lower catastrophic claims so far this year compared with 2013 and generally improved underwriting results with higher premiums and reduced benefit obligations. The important Ontario auto insurance market, which comprises the largest segment of Intact’s business, is challenging with the provincial government’s desire to lower auto insurance premiums. To achieve the desired premium reductions, the industry is asking for a reduction in benefit costs and greater ability to discourage fraud.

It was (yet another) poor day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 9bp, FixedResets losing 22bp and DeemedRetractibles off 8bp. There is (yet another) lengthy list of Performance Highlights, dominated (yet again) by losing FixedResets with (yet more) heavy representation from the credit-dubious Enbridge. Volume was above average, enlivened by the two new issues, CM.PR.P and TD.PF.C.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:

  • based on Implied Volatility Theory only
  • are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
  • assume constant GOC-5 yield
  • assume constant Implied Volatility
  • assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_141216
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So according to this, TRP.PR.A, bid at 19.45, is $1.84 cheap, but it has already reset (at +192). TRP.PR.D, bid at 25.00 and resetting at +238bp on 2019-4-30 is $0.66 rich and TRP.PR.E, bid at 25.04 and resetting at +235bp on 2019-10-30, is $0.90 rich. The TRP issues seem to be rationalizing, but there continues to be pressure on TRP.PR.A.

Now, this is really interesting. TRP.PR.A will pay 3.266%, which is to say $0.8165, until its next reset date 2019-12-31. TRP.PR.E will continue to pay its initial dividend of $1.0625 until it resets 2019-10-30 at +235. See that? Two month’s difference in reset. I think we can disregard forecasts of changes in GOC-5 yield that get that precise. That is to say, over the next five years, TRP.PR.E will pay a total of about $1.25 more than TRP.PR.A. Then it will reset at 46bp more, which is to say $0.115 p.a., forever.

And yet the difference in price is $5.59! That seems to me to be a lot to pay for a short term payment of $1.25, leaving $4.34, to earn $0.115, or 2.65%. But some people, it would seem, find this quite reasonable. It will be noted as well that TRP.PR.A is exposed to possible capital gains if the Market Reset Spread narrows; so it could gain up to $5.55 in price while TRP.PR.E got nothing.

impVol_MFC_141216
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It looks like MFC.PR.F, resetting at 141bp on 2016-06-19 is in another world and distorting results again.

impVol_BAM_141216
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There continues to be extraordinary cheapness in the lowest-spread issue, BAM.PR.X, resetting at +180bp on 2017-6-30, is bid at 20.01 and appears to be $0.96 cheap, while BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp 2016-6-30 is bid at 24.90 and appears to be $1.39 rich.

impVol_FTS_141216
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This is just weird because the middle is expensive and the ends are cheap but anyway … FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp, and bid at 18.30, looks $1.05 cheap and resets 2015-6-1. FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 24.30, looks $0.77 expensive and resets 2019-3-1

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1438 % 2,505.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1438 % 3,966.9
Floater 3.03 % 3.12 % 60,256 19.44 4 -0.1438 % 2,663.7
OpRet 4.41 % -3.71 % 27,354 0.08 2 -0.0196 % 2,748.8
SplitShare 4.31 % 4.02 % 43,390 3.71 5 -0.0294 % 3,172.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0196 % 2,513.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.44 % 1.18 % 74,181 0.09 20 -0.0020 % 2,473.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.22 % 5.14 % 111,245 15.18 15 -0.0864 % 2,634.1
FixedReset 4.28 % 3.60 % 233,669 16.45 77 -0.2249 % 2,511.5
Deemed-Retractible 5.00 % 1.37 % 98,170 0.29 40 -0.0837 % 2,598.5
FloatingReset 2.56 % 2.10 % 64,191 3.51 5 -0.0868 % 2,531.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.T FixedReset -4.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 24.64
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset -1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.61
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
ENB.PR.B FixedReset -1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 22.21
Evaluated at bid price : 22.56
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset -1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.62
Bid-YTW : 2.71 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 5.01 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.01
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %
ENB.PR.N FixedReset -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 22.23
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 23.26
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
ENB.PR.F FixedReset -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 22.20
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 19.45
Evaluated at bid price : 19.45
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.76
Bid-YTW : 3.60 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 2.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 19.55
Evaluated at bid price : 19.55
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.C FixedReset 749,016 New issue settled today.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 24.87
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset 692,550 New issue settled today.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 23.07
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 3.53 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 269,800 Desjardins crossed blocks of 197,100 and 60,000 at 25.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 23.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 116,806 RBC crossed 114,600 at 25.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 25.04
Bid-YTW : 3.70 %
CM.PR.E Perpetual-Premium 66,242 Called for redemption January 31.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-01-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : -0.24 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Premium 56,250 RBC crossed 42,700 at 25.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 24.68
Evaluated at bid price : 24.99
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %
There were 40 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PWF.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 24.64 – 25.44
Spot Rate : 0.8000
Average : 0.5662

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 24.64
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %

ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Premium Quote: 24.99 – 25.63
Spot Rate : 0.6400
Average : 0.4751

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 24.68
Evaluated at bid price : 24.99
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %

NEW.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 32.12 – 33.12
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.8457

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-06-26
Maturity Price : 32.07
Evaluated at bid price : 32.12
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %

SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.91 – 24.35
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.2925

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.91
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %

PWF.PR.A Floater Quote: 19.25 – 20.00
Spot Rate : 0.7500
Average : 0.6105

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 19.25
Evaluated at bid price : 19.25
Bid-YTW : 2.74 %

FTS.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 24.30 – 24.95
Spot Rate : 0.6500
Average : 0.5176

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 22.96
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %

Issue Comments

CM.PR.P Soft on Good Volume

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has announced:

that it has completed the offering of 12 million Basel III-compliant non-cumulative Rate Reset Class A Preferred Shares Series 41 (the “Series 41 Shares”) priced at $25.00 per share to raise gross proceeds of $300 million.

The offering was made through a syndicate of underwriters led by CIBC World Markets Inc. The Series 41 Shares commence trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange today under the ticker symbol CM.PR.P.

The Series 41 Shares were issued under a prospectus supplement dated December 8, 2014, to CIBC’s short form base shelf prospectus dated March 11, 2014.

CM.PR.P is a FixedReset, 3.75%+224, announced December 8. This issue will be tracked by HIMIPref™ and has been added to the FixedResets index.

The issue traded 862,850 shares today (consolidated exchanges) in a range of 24.75-94 before closing at 24.75-76.

Vital statistics are:

CM.PR.P FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 23.07
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 3.53 %
Issue Comments

TD.PF.C Soft On Good Volume

TD.PF.C is a FixedReset, 3.75%+225, announced December 5, which TD did not honour with an announcement of the closing. The issue will be tracked by HIMIPref™ and has been assigned to the FixedReset subindex.

The issue traded a very respectable 1,005,216 shares today in a range of 24.80-96 before closing at 24.87-88.

Vital statistics are:

TD.PF.C FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-16
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 24.87
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %

Implied Volatility is:

impVol_TD_141216
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Issue Comments

TLM.PR.A To Be Taken Out At $25.00?

Talisman Energy Inc. has announced:

•A cash price of C$25 plus accrued and unpaid dividends per Talisman preferred share if holders approve their participation in the transaction

that it has entered into a definitive agreement (the “Arrangement Agreement”) with Repsol S.A. under which Repsol will acquire all of the outstanding common shares of Talisman for US$8.00 (C$9.33) per share in cash.

Following an extensive review and analysis of the proposed transaction and other available alternatives, the Talisman Board has unanimously approved the transaction and recommends that Talisman’s common shareholders and preferred shareholders vote in favor of the arrangement at a special meeting of shareholders to be held mid February 2015. In addition, certain of the directors and all of the executive officers of Talisman have signed agreements to vote their shares in favor of the transaction.

The transaction is to be effected pursuant to an arrangement under the Canada Business Corporations Act. The Arrangement Agreement between Talisman and Repsol provides for, among other things, a non-solicitation covenant on the part of Talisman, subject to customary “fiduciary out” provisions, that entitles Talisman to consider and accept a superior proposal if Repsol does not match the superior proposal. If the Arrangement Agreement is terminated in certain circumstances, including if Talisman enters into an agreement with respect to a superior proposal, Repsol is entitled to a termination payment of US$270 million.

Completion of the transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including court approval of the Arrangement Agreement, approval of two-thirds of the votes cast by holders of common shares at the special meeting, and applicable government and regulatory approvals. The transaction is targeted to close in the second quarter of 2015.

Under the Arrangement Agreement, if approved by the holders in a separate class vote, Repsol will acquire the outstanding preferred shares of Talisman. However, closing of the Arrangement Agreement is not conditioned on approval by the holders of the Talisman preferred shares. If the requisite preferred shareholder approval is not obtained, the preferred shares will be excluded from the arrangement and will remain outstanding following completion of the arrangement.

Tim Kiladze comments in the Globe:

Combined, the two companies are expected to have net debt that amounts to 1.9 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization next year, which could fall to 1.2 times by 2017. However, that’s the base case scenario, which assumes $85 oil next year, and $99 oil in 2017. In a stress case with $71 oil next year and $79 oil in 2017, net debt is 2.3 times EBITDA next year and 1.7 times EBITDA in 2017.

As for the broad strategy, Repsol is willing to bet against the market. Most energy firms were punished for tacking on too many assets and projects as oil prices soared, and they are now scrambling to shed non-core positions and slash capital spending. Repsol believes adding diversity will help it through this energy downturn – so long as the assets are in politically safe regions like the Americas.

Rebecca Penty of Bloomberg notes:

Analysts widely recommended that shareholders accept Repsol’s bid, including those from BMO Capital Markets, CIBC World Markets Inc. and Raymond James Ltd.

TLM.PR.A was on fire today, rocketing up from yesterday’s closing quote of 19.60-20 to 23.70-72 today.

So what’s going on? First, I suggest that the discount to par represented by today’s quote is an uncertainty discount; if either common or preferred shareholders reject the deal, the price will tank again, since any credit improvement of the combined company will be minimal. DBRS comments:

Overall, DBRS expects this transaction to have a minimal impact on Talisman’s ratings. From a business risk perspective, the acquisition would be a net positive for Talisman given Repsol’s significant size and scale of integrated and geographically well-diversified operations. From a financial risk perspective, the pro forma financial metrics are expected to be reasonable to support an investment-grade rating.

Note that when DBRS talks about “investment grade” they are talking about the bonds, which are BBB. There is subordination notching for the preferreds, which are junk.

In May 2014, S&P affirmed Repsol at BBB- [Outlook Positive]:

  • •Spain-based energy company Repsol S.A. has executed its debt reduction measures by completing the sale of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) division. In addition, Repsol has sold its remaining stake in Argentina-based YPF and the related restitution bonds.
  • •Following this, the new higher level of Repsol’s credit ratios will depend on its uses of the cash and our forecast of growing production.
  • •We are therefore revising our outlook on Repsol to “positive” from “stable,” and affirming our ‘BBB-‘ long-term corporate credit rating on the company.
  • •The positive outlook mostly reflects our belief that the company will be able to generate higher operating cash flows, and have an increased ability to internally fund ongoing investments in exploration and development.

… and downgraded TLM to BBB- in October:

  • •We expect Talisman Energy Inc.’s operating performance, specifically its production and cost profile, to show limited improvement in the next 18-24 months, constraining any significant cash-flow growth.
  • •At the same time, we expect Talisman to significantly outspend internally generated cash flow through 2015. Even if the company meets its US$2 billion asset sale target in the next 12-18 months, we do not think its credit profile is commensurate with that of its ‘BBB’ rated peers.
  • •As a result, we are lowering our long-term corporate credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on Talisman to ‘BBB-‘ from ‘BBB’.
  • •We are also lowering our global scale rating on its preferred stock to ‘BB’ from ‘BB+’ and its Canada scale rating on the preferred stock to ‘P-3’ from ‘P-3 (High)’.
  • •The stable outlook reflects our view that Talisman’s cash flow from its increasing liquids production combined with any asset sales will allow the company to maintain its funds from operations-to-debt at more than 30% through 2015.


At the same time, Standard & Poor’s lowered its global scale rating on its preferred stock to ‘BB’ from ‘BB+’ and its Canada scale rating on the stock to ‘P-3’ from ‘P-3 (High)’.

The outlook is stable.

The latter action was reported on PrefBlog.

This is a tricky one. Remember the BCE Plan of Arrangement with its huge prices for the preferred shares? And remember how Prefs plunged when the deal got into trouble? And then the deal died? All this could – conceivably – happen again with the TLM.PR.A deal. Even if the deal is simply replaced by a better deal for common shareholders – a bid by the CPPIB has been mooted – the new plan might not necessarily involve taking out the preferreds.

So I don’t really have any advice for investors on this one. On December 10 the issue was quoted at 15.95-24 and oil hasn’t exactly rebounded since then. So if common shareholders reject the deal, the price will be … pick a number. If common shareholders accept the deal but preferred shareholders reject it (a very low probability scenario, according to me!) then the issue will remain outstanding and the price will be … pick a number. And if both common and preferred shareholders accept the deal, the price will be $25.00.

So there’s huge deal risk here, and I do preferred shares and yield curves. Deal risk is for charlatans magicians wiser heads than mine. My own inclination is that investors should unload the deal risk to speculators and try not to obsess too much about the potential upside being given up. But it’s all up to you.

TLM.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™ but is relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

Market Action

December 15, 2014

STRIPS are taking off!

An obscure corner of the $12.4 trillion market for U.S. government debt is providing one of the clearest signs yet that bond investors are writing off the threat of inflation for years, if not decades, to come.

Demand for Strips, created when Wall Street banks separate the interest payments from the principal of U.S. debt and sell each at a discount, has boosted the amount outstanding to an average $211 billion this year, the most since 1999, data from the Treasury Department show. The securities, the most vulnerable to inflation of all U.S. government bonds, posted the biggest returns this year by rallying almost 50 percent.

This is particularly impressive given that the yield curve is relatively flat; the STRIPS term curve will always (by inexorable mathematics) be steeper than the bond term curve, on an accelerating basis as the bond curve gets steeper … some of these investors might find themselves bankrupt and bewildered if the curve steepens; which, theoretically, it should do as the market starts pricing in policy rate hikes (cf. 1994).

There is much wailing over drops in the CAD:

The Canadian dollar slumped below the 86-cent mark today as oil prices slipped again.

And don’t expect it to get much better, though there may be some higher points along the way.

The loonie, as Canada’s dollar coin is known, closed at 85.79 cents U.S. today, down more than half a cent.

This came as oil prices, which had stabilized, tumbled yet again, continuing the weeks of turmoil.

But it ain’t got nuthin’ on the ruble:

The ruble tumbled the most since 1998, sliding past 60 for the first time, as traders tested Russia’s willingness to defend the currency amid an oil slump that’s pushing the economy toward recession.

The ruble weakened 9.1 percent to 64.0005 per dollar at 7:57 p.m. in Moscow, the steepest slide on a closing basis since the year Russia defaulted on local-currency debt. The 10-year government bond yield rose 23 basis points to 13.23 percent. Three-month implied volatility for the ruble climbed to a six-year high as the rout triggered the Bank of Russia to sell foreign exchange, according to BCS Financial Group and MDM Bank.

Traders are pressing the central bank to buy more rubles to limit a selloff that has wiped out 22 percent of the currency’s value this month. Oil’s slide toward $60 a barrel in London and sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine are undermining confidence in Russian assets as evidence mounts that the economy is entering a recession. Industrial output fell the most in more than a year in November, data showed today.

Assiduous Reader JP, who continues to send me interesting stuff when youse guys can’t be bothered, sends me a picture, and tells me to note the high and low:

ruble_141215
Click for Big

Faced with this, Russia’s central bank had little choice but to acknowledge Russia’s third world status:

The central bank increased the key rate to 17 percent from 10.5 percent effective today, it said in a statement on its website. Policy makers gathered for an unscheduled meeting after a one-point increase on Dec. 11.

“This decision is aimed at limiting substantially increased ruble depreciation risks and inflation risks,” the bank said in the statement.

Russia’s central bank raised interest rates for the sixth time in 2014 after more than $80 billion spent from its reserves failed to stop a 49 percent selloff of the ruble, the world’s worst-performing currency this year. President Vladimir Putin, whose incursion into Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula in March prompted the U.S. and its allies to strike back with sanctions, this month called for “harsh” measures to deter currency speculators.

The ruble yesterday tumbled past 60 for the first time on record, losing 9.7 percent to 64.4455 a dollar. That extended its plunge this year to 49 percent, which overtook the Ukrainian hryvnia’s drop. Brent, the grade of oil traders look at for pricing Russia’s main export blend, slipped 79 cents, or 1.3 percent, to end the session at $61.06 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Basically, nobody knows what’s going on:

Canadian stocks fell, extending losses after the worst week in three years, as declines among materials and energy shares offset gains in consumer stocks.

Materials companies lost 3.3 percent as gold and silver fell on speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising U.S. interest rates amid an improving economy. Energy shares lost 0.9 percent as oil fell to the lowest level in more than five years. Talisman Energy Inc. rallied 18 percent as people familiar with the matter said Canada Pension Plan Investment Board is weighing a bid for the oil-and-gas explorer.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index (SPTSX) lost 25.91 points, or 0.2 percent, to 13,705.14 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, after rising as much as 0.9 percent and then falling 0.7 percent. The equity gauge dropped 5.1 percent last week, its worst weekly decline since September 2011. Trading in S&P/TSX stocks was 31 percent below the 30-day average at closing time.

Canadian equities have pared their gain for the year to 0.6 percent, after rallying as much as 15 percent to a record in September. Oil, bank and raw-material shares, which collectively account for two-thirds of the S&P/TSX, are the worst performers among 10 groups this year, led by a 20 percent slump in energy, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Rumours regarding Repsol / Talisman are getting very specific:

Spain’s Repsol SA has submitted an $8.3-billion (U.S.) takeover bid for Talisman Energy Inc. amid falling oil prices and questions about Talisman’s long-term prospects, a source familiar with the situation said on Monday.

Under the offer, Repsol would pay $8 (U.S.) per share of Calgary-base‎d Talisman, the source said.

It was a deceptively mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 13bp, FixedResets gaining 4bp and DeemedRetractibles off 1bp, but the modest averages masked a lot of turmoil. There’s yet another very lengthy list of performance highlights, dominated by losing low-spread FixedResets. We may even have entered a period of self-feeding tax-loss selling (many of the losers are also volume highlights), but we won’t know until the season ends! Volume was above average.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:

  • based on Implied Volatility Theory only
  • are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
  • assume constant GOC-5 yield
  • assume constant Implied Volatility
  • assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_141215
Click for Big

So according to this, TRP.PR.A, bid at 19.20, is $2.13 cheap (!), but it has already reset (at +192). TRP.PR.D, bid at 25.15 and resetting at +238bp on 2019-4-30 is $0.81 rich and TRP.PR.E, bid at 25.20 and resetting at +235bp on 2019-10-30, is $1.00 rich. The TRP issues seem to be steadily rationalizing, but there continues to be pressure on TRP.PR.A.

Now, this is really interesting. TRP.PR.A will pay 3.266%, which is to say $0.8165, until its next reset date 2019-12-31. TRP.PR.E will continue to pay its initial dividend of $1.0625 until it resets 2019-10-30 at +235. See that? Two month’s difference in reset. I think we can disregard forecasts of changes in GOC-5 yield that get that precise. That is to say, over the next five years, TRP.PR.E will pay a total of about $1.25 more than TRP.PR.A. Then it will reset at 46bp more, which is to say $0.115 p.a., forever.

And yet the difference in price is … is … SIX DOLLARS! That seems to me to be a lot to pay for a short term payment of $1.25, leaving $4.75, to earn $0.115, or 2.42%. But some people, it would seem, find this quite reasonable.

impVol_MFC_141215
Click for Big

MFC has a very good fit to theory, but the Implied Volatility is very high.

impVol_BAM_141215
Click for Big

There continues to be extraordinary cheapness in the lowest-spread issue, BAM.PR.X, resetting at +180bp on 2017-6-30, is bid at 20.12 and appears to be $0.89 cheap, while BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp 2016-6-30 is bid at 25.00 and appears to be $1.49 rich.

impVol_FTS_141215
Click for Big

This is just weird because the middle is expensive and the ends are cheap but anyway … FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp, and bid at 18.40, looks $1.01 cheap and resets 2015-6-1. FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 24.20, looks $0.66 expensive and resets 2019-3-1

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3030 % 2,509.2
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3030 % 3,972.6
Floater 3.02 % 3.11 % 59,635 19.45 4 0.3030 % 2,667.5
OpRet 4.41 % -3.87 % 27,159 0.08 2 -0.0979 % 2,749.3
SplitShare 4.31 % 4.11 % 45,189 3.71 5 -0.0531 % 3,173.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0979 % 2,514.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.44 % -0.36 % 73,710 0.08 20 -0.0509 % 2,473.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.22 % 5.14 % 109,492 15.21 15 0.1326 % 2,636.3
FixedReset 4.28 % 3.64 % 225,234 16.44 75 0.0382 % 2,517.2
Deemed-Retractible 5.00 % 1.81 % 97,526 0.20 40 -0.0080 % 2,600.7
FloatingReset 2.56 % 2.10 % 64,904 3.52 5 0.0079 % 2,533.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.A FixedReset -3.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -2.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 18.40
Evaluated at bid price : 18.40
Bid-YTW : 3.81 %
ENB.PR.T FixedReset -2.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 21.82
Evaluated at bid price : 22.23
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 19.04
Evaluated at bid price : 19.04
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Premium -1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 24.56
Evaluated at bid price : 24.81
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset -1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 22.92
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 3.53 %
ENB.PR.H FixedReset -1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 20.48
Evaluated at bid price : 20.48
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
ENB.PF.G FixedReset -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 22.55
Evaluated at bid price : 23.59
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.74
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.65
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 23.58
Evaluated at bid price : 23.95
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 23.45
Evaluated at bid price : 25.70
Bid-YTW : 3.56 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.00
Bid-YTW : 2.24 %
BNS.PR.Y FixedReset 1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.15
Bid-YTW : 3.00 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.65
Bid-YTW : 3.16 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 2.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 23.26
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 3.64 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 214,150 Desjardins crossed 188,300 at 18.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 18.40
Evaluated at bid price : 18.40
Bid-YTW : 3.81 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 120,518 Will reset at 3.266%. Desjardins crossed 20,800 at 19.33. RBC crossed blocks of 28,200 and 24,200 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
ENB.PR.Y FixedReset 79,491 Scotia bought 10,700 from National at 21.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 21.59
Evaluated at bid price : 21.92
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
CM.PR.E Perpetual-Premium 36,275 Called for redemption 2015-1-31.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-01-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : -0.42 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 33,937 RBC crossed 13,200 at 18.96.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 18.71
Evaluated at bid price : 18.71
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 29,083 RBC crossed 25,000 at 25.77.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-10-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.72
Bid-YTW : 2.95 %
There were 36 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CGI.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 25.05 – 26.14
Spot Rate : 1.0900
Average : 0.6202

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %

PWF.PR.A Floater Quote: 19.25 – 20.00
Spot Rate : 0.7500
Average : 0.4576

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 19.25
Evaluated at bid price : 19.25
Bid-YTW : 2.74 %

ENB.PF.G FixedReset Quote: 23.59 – 24.15
Spot Rate : 0.5600
Average : 0.3519

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 22.55
Evaluated at bid price : 23.59
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %

ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Premium Quote: 24.81 – 25.30
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.2943

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 24.56
Evaluated at bid price : 24.81
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %

BAM.PF.A FixedReset Quote: 25.33 – 25.75
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.2618

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-15
Maturity Price : 23.38
Evaluated at bid price : 25.33
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %

MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.62 – 24.07
Spot Rate : 0.4500
Average : 0.3005

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.62
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %

PrefLetter

December PrefLetter Released!

The December, 2014, edition of PrefLetter has been released and is now available for purchase as the “Previous edition”. Those who subscribe for a full year receive the “Previous edition” as a bonus.

The regular appendices reporting on DeemedRetractibles and FixedResets are included. There is also a short appendix dealing with the correlations of Preferred Shares with other asset classes … and the misconceptions thereof.

PrefLetter may now be purchased by all Canadian residents.

Until further notice, the “Previous Edition” will refer to the December, 2014, issue, while the “Next Edition” will be the January, 2015, issue, scheduled to be prepared as of the close January 9 and eMailed to subscribers prior to market-opening on January 12.

PrefLetter is intended for long term investors seeking issues to buy-and-hold. At least one recommendation from each of the major preferred share sectors is included and discussed.

Note: My verbosity has grown by such leaps and bounds that it is no longer possible to deliver PrefLetter as an eMail attachment – it’s just too big for my software! Instead, I have sent passwords – click on the link in your eMail and your copy will download.

Note: The PrefLetter website has a Subscriber Download Feature. If you have not received your copy, try it!

Note: PrefLetter eMails sometimes runs afoul of spam filters. If you have not received your copy within fifteen minutes of a release notice such as this one, please double check your (company’s) spam filtering policy and your spam repository – there are some hints in the post Sympatico Spam Filters out of Control. If it’s not there, contact me and I’ll get you your copy … somehow!

Note: There have been scattered complaints regarding inability to open PrefLetter in Acrobat Reader, despite my practice of including myself on the subscription list and immediately checking the copy received. I have had the occasional difficulty reading US Government documents, which I was able to resolve by downloading and installing the latest version of Adobe Reader. Also, note that so far, all complaints have been from users of Yahoo Mail. Try saving it to disk first, before attempting to open it.

Note: There have been other scattered complaints that double-clicking on the links in the “PrefLetter Download” email results in a message that the password has already been used. I have been able to reproduce this problem in my own eMail software … the problem is double-clicking. What happens is the first click opens the link and the second click finds that the password has already been used and refuses to work properly. So the moral of the story is: Don’t be a dick! Single Click!

Note: Assiduous Reader DG informs me:

In case you have any other Apple users: you need to install a free App from the apple store called “FileApp”. It comes with it’s own tutorial and allows you to download and save a PDF file.

Miscellaneous News

Manulife Buries Poorly Performing Manulife Preferred Income Fund

A division of Manulife Financial Corp. announced on October 17:

the receipt of the required approvals from securityholders to proceed with certain of the previously announced proposed fund mergers. It is currently anticipated that the mergers will be implemented at the close of business on or about October 24, 2014 and on or about November 7, 2014, as detailed below.

Fund Mergers
For the mergers listed below, Manulife Investments has received the following approvals from securityholders to proceed with implementing the mergers on or about October 24, 2014:

Terminating Fund Continuing Fund Approval status
Manulife International Value Equity Class Manulife International Value Equity Fund Approved
Manulife Preferred Income Fund Manulife Preferred Income Class Approved

The inception date of the surviving fund was August 1, 2013 and accordingly performance reports date back only to then.

The last performance data I have for the non-surviving fund may provide a clue as to why the old fund was dropped, but only very nasty, cynical people would dream of a connection:

Performance to September 30, 2014
Period BMO-CM “50” Index Manulife Preferred Income Fund
One Month -0.76% -1.07%
Three Months -0.11% +0.15%
One Year +4.14% +3.07%
Three Years +3.67% +1.48%
Five Years +5.74% +2.91%
Market Action

December 12, 2014

Well, that was a week and a half!

U.S. stocks sank, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average capping its biggest weekly drop in three years, as oil continued to slide and Chinese industrial data raised concern over a global economic slowdown.

Materials stocks declined the most in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, losing 2.9 percent as a group, while energy shares dropped 2.2 percent. International Business Machines Corp., DuPont Co. and Exxon Mobil Corp. sank at least 2.9 percent to lead declines in all 30 Dow stocks.

The S&P 500 lost 1.6 percent to 2,002.33 at 4 p.m. in New York, extending losses in the final hour to cap a weekly drop of 3.5 percent. The Dow sank 315.51 points, or 1.8 percent, to 17,280.83. The Dow slid 3.8 percent for the week, its biggest decline since November 2011.

Canada did worse:

Canadian stocks tumbled with equities around the world, capping the worst week in three years, as the continuing selloff in oil fueled concerns over a global economic slowdown.

Energy stocks dropped with oil prices as RMP Energy Inc. and Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. slid at least 7.9 percent. Consumer-discretionary stocks sank as Amaya Inc. plunged 18 percent. Talisman Energy Inc. soared 17 percent on speculation of a deal with Repsol SA.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index (SPTSX) fell 173.22 points, or 1.3 percent, to 13,731.9 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The equity gauge dropped 5.1 percent over five days, its worst weekly decline since September 2011. Trading in S&P/TSX stocks was 12 percent above the 30-day average at this time of day.

But it’s an ill wind…:

Inflation is moribund and bond buyers love it.

As crude oil leads a collapse in commodity prices, a German gauge of the outlook for inflation over the next five years has fallen below zero. With no increases in consumer prices in sight, bondholders’ interest and repayments are worth more, inflaming demand for fixed income. The longest maturities are setting the pace from Europe to the U.S.

The rush for bonds pushed yields in Germany and six other euro-area nations to record lows today, while in the U.S, 30-year yields closed at the lowest level since 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Adding to the momentum is the prospect that central-bank measures to rekindle inflation would involve efforts to keep down borrowing costs, including so-called quantitative easing from the European Central Bank

and Treasuries…:

Treasuries rallied, with 10-year yields reaching the lowest in eight weeks, as a plunge in crude oil raised concern global inflation is slipping further below central-bank targets before the Federal Reserve meets next week.

The notes posted the biggest weekly decline in yield since June 2012 as crude oil futures fell below $58 a barrel in New York. Fed policy makers will review whether to retain the vow to hold interest rates at virtually zero for a “considerable time.” The biggest U.S. jobs gains in November since January 2012 fueled speculation last week of quicker interest-rate increases, while reports showing slowing factory output in China’s and financial turmoil in Greece represent additional economic headwinds for the U.S.

Treasury 10-year note yields fell eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 2.08 percent at 5 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices, after reaching the lowest level since Oct. 16. The 2.25 percent security rose 23/32 or $7.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 101 15/32. The yield has fallen 22 basis points this week, the most since June 2012.

So it seems as if the CSE is introducing market-makers:

Following the successful completion of a pilot project with two symbols, the CSE is now accepting applications for Market Makers for all CSE-listed securities. As outlined in the November 14 notice the CSE is modifying its market making programme to improve execution quality and service for retail investors. Market Makers will have the following responsibilities in their assigned stocks:

  • •Maintain a bid/ask spread goal
  • •Provide a Guaranteed Minimum Fill for eligible orders
  • •Provide automatic odd lot execution, so that all incoming market or better limit odd lot orders will be auto traded at the bid/ask if they cannot be filled by booked odd lot orders;
  • •Ensure a reasonable bid/ask in the context of current market conditions
  • •Undergo periodic performance reviews

If the Toronto Stock Exchange is any guide, then:

  • The bid/ask spread goal will neither be publicized nor enforced
  • The size of the Guaranteed Minimum Fill will be top secret information, available only to those who pay for it
  • Automatic odd lot execution will be fine. Yay!
  • A reasonable bid/ask spread will be good fodder for jokes
  • performance reviews will not be public and nobody will ever lose their assignment

DBRS downgraded Timmy’s:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today downgraded the Issuer Rating of Tim Hortons Inc. (THI or the Company) to BB (low) and its Senior Unsecured Debt to B, with a recovery rating of RR6; the trends are Stable. This action follows the Company’s announcement that it has received regulatory approval for and its shareholders have voted in favour of the proposed transaction to create a new global quick-service restaurant leader that would own both THI and Burger King Worldwide, Inc. (Burger King) under a new parent company, Restaurant Brands International (RBI). DBRS has removed the ratings from Under Review with Negative Implications.

Financial Risk Profile
In terms of financial profile, RBI is expected to have balance sheet debt of over $9 billion and preferred shares of $3 billion. Combined with pro forma earnings, DBRS estimates the combined entity will have lease-adjusted debt-to-EBITDAR excluding the preferred shares of approximately 6.23 times (x) and fixed-charge coverage of 1.96x, including the preferred dividend, credit metrics considered at the lower-end of the B range of ratings. That said, the combined entity should nevertheless generate meaningful levels of free cash flow (based on solid operating cash flow and low maintenance capex) beginning in 2016 and could deleverage significantly through a combination of debt repayment and earnings growth.

But, wonder of wonders, the Canadian preferred share market had a very good day, with PerpetualDiscounts up 8bp, FixedResets rocketing up 62bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 3bp. Not surprisingly, given the averages, the lengthy Performance Highlights table is dominated by FixedReset winners. Volume was high.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:

  • based on Implied Volatility Theory only
  • are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
  • assume constant GOC-5 yield
  • assume constant Implied Volatility
  • assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_141212
Click for Big

So according to this, TRP.PR.A, bid at 19.90, is $1.29 cheap, but it has already reset. TRP.PR.B, bid at 17.20, resetting 2015-6-30 is about 0.21 rich and TRP.PR.C, bid at 18.65, resetting 2016-1-30 is fairly priced. The TRP issues seem to be steadily rationalizing, but there continues to be pressure on TRP.PR.A.

impVol_MFC_141212
Click for Big

It looks like we’re back in the situation in which eight of the nine issues are well-behaved in accordance with theory, but extraordinary pressure on the lowest-spread issue, MFC.PR.F, is distorting the whole calculation. According to the distorted fit, MFC.PR.F, resetting at +141 on 2016-6-19 is about $0.62 cheap, while MFC.PR.L, resetting at +216 on 2019-6-19, is about $0.61 rich.

BAM is a little difficult to figure out:

impVol_BAM_141212
Click for Big

As with MFC, it looks as if extraordinary cheapness in the lowest-spread issue, BAM.PR.X, resetting at +180bp on 2017-6-30, may be throwing off the Implied Volatility calculation; be that as it may, BAM.PR.X is bid at 20.10 and appears to be $0.99 cheap, while BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp 2016-6-30 is bid at 25.02 and appears to be $1.43 rich.

impVol_FTS_141212
Click for Big

This is just weird because the middle is expensive and the ends are cheap but anyway … FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp, and bid at 18.90, looks $0.81 cheap and resets 2015-6-1. FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 24.62, looks $0.82 expensive and resets 2019-3-1

And now it’s time for PrefLetter!

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.8015 % 2,501.7
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.8015 % 3,960.6
Floater 3.03 % 3.13 % 61,910 19.42 4 -0.8015 % 2,659.4
OpRet 4.41 % -5.72 % 28,284 0.08 2 -0.1369 % 2,752.0
SplitShare 4.30 % 4.07 % 44,928 3.72 5 -0.1096 % 3,175.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1369 % 2,516.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.44 % 1.31 % 74,566 0.08 20 0.0137 % 2,475.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.23 % 5.15 % 111,129 15.21 15 0.0750 % 2,632.9
FixedReset 4.28 % 3.64 % 224,047 16.51 75 0.6184 % 2,516.2
Deemed-Retractible 5.00 % 1.32 % 97,795 0.21 40 0.0279 % 2,600.9
FloatingReset 2.56 % 2.12 % 64,801 3.53 5 -0.3147 % 2,533.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.A FixedReset -2.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 19.90
Evaluated at bid price : 19.90
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset -2.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 18.65
Evaluated at bid price : 18.65
Bid-YTW : 3.98 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 16.70
Evaluated at bid price : 16.70
Bid-YTW : 3.14 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 16.61
Evaluated at bid price : 16.61
Bid-YTW : 3.15 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 18.90
Evaluated at bid price : 18.90
Bid-YTW : 3.70 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 23.56
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 3.60 %
BNS.PR.R FixedReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.65
Bid-YTW : 3.25 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.80
Bid-YTW : 2.26 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 5.62 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 23.72
Evaluated at bid price : 25.02
Bid-YTW : 3.64 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-10-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.70
Bid-YTW : 2.97 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.62
Bid-YTW : 3.44 %
ENB.PR.T FixedReset 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 22.12
Evaluated at bid price : 22.69
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.53
Bid-YTW : 3.98 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 23.35
Evaluated at bid price : 25.45
Bid-YTW : 3.60 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 23.24
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.04
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset 1.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.12
Bid-YTW : 3.15 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.15
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 1.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : 3.87 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 2.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.70
Bid-YTW : 2.60 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 2.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 24.88
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 2.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.16
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 2.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.01
Bid-YTW : 2.72 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset 5.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 23.37
Evaluated at bid price : 25.44
Bid-YTW : 3.61 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
IAG.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 148,462 Nesbitt crossed 148,400 at 25.98.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-01-30
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.97
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
ENB.PR.Y FixedReset 122,022 RBC crossed 97,800 at 21.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 21.58
Evaluated at bid price : 21.91
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 106,445 Scotia crossed blocks of 53,200 and 40,000, both at 25.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 23.23
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset 71,890 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.01
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 53,405 Will reset at 3.266%.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 19.90
Evaluated at bid price : 19.90
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
CM.PR.E Perpetual-Premium 48,584 Called for redemption 2015-1-31.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-01-11
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : -0.97 %
There were 45 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
NEW.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 32.47 – 33.35
Spot Rate : 0.8800
Average : 0.6946

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-06-26
Maturity Price : 32.07
Evaluated at bid price : 32.47
Bid-YTW : 3.52 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 20.60 – 21.18
Spot Rate : 0.5800
Average : 0.4300

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 20.60
Evaluated at bid price : 20.60
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %

TRP.PR.D FixedReset Quote: 24.59 – 25.16
Spot Rate : 0.5700
Average : 0.4215

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 23.06
Evaluated at bid price : 24.59
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %

TRP.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 18.65 – 19.10
Spot Rate : 0.4500
Average : 0.3112

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 18.65
Evaluated at bid price : 18.65
Bid-YTW : 3.98 %

IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium Quote: 26.05 – 26.50
Spot Rate : 0.4500
Average : 0.3421

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.05
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %

TRP.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 17.20 – 17.49
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1856

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-12
Maturity Price : 17.20
Evaluated at bid price : 17.20
Bid-YTW : 3.81 %

Issue Comments

IGM.PR.B Downgraded To P-2(high) by S&P

Standard & Poor’s has announced:

it reviewed its ratings on 37 global asset managers by applying its new ratings criteria for the sector (see “Key Credit Factors For Asset Managers,” published Dec. 9, 2014). As a result, we have taken rating actions on these entities (see ratings list). We also took rating actions on certain subsidiaries as a result of applying our new criteria to their parents. The rating actions were driven by revisions to our criteria rather than a sudden change of the issuers’ creditworthiness.

We define asset managers as companies that derive a majority of their revenues from management and performance fees for managing third-party money or assets on the behalf of retail or institutional investors. We rate asset managers under a similar framework to our corporate criteria. Our assessment reflects these companies’ business risk profiles, their financial risk profiles, and other factors that may modify the stand-alone credit profile.

We have now removed the under criteria observation (UCO) identifier from our ratings on all of the entities listed below.

We anticipate publishing, for most issuer credit ratings or outlooks that change, research updates within 30 business days. We anticipate publishing research updates in the first or second quarters of 2015 for those entities that we did not change our issuer credit ratings or outlooks on under the new criteria.

IGM Financial Inc.
Issuer Credit Rating A/Stable/A-1 A+/Stable/A-1
Senior Unsecured A A+
Preferred Stock BBB+ A-
P-2(High) P-1(Low)

The criteria have been published and discussed by S&P. We can look forward to publication of the specific reasons for the IGM downgrade.