Market Action

October 19, 2012

Canadian inflation is quiescent:

Canada’s annual inflation rate stayed at 1.2 per cent, matching the previous month and May for the lowest level in more than two years.

For the annual inflation rate, the agency said an increase in prices for gasoline and electricity were the main contributors, but they were offset by declines in the cost of purchasing motor vehicles and women’s clothing.

The Bank of Canada’s core rate, which measures underlying price pressures by excluding volatile items such as gasoline, declined three-tenths of a point to 1.3 per cent.

This has led to calls for a rate cut:

There could be several causes of these low bond yields – and none of them are pleasant. It may be that bond markets expect the Bank of Canada to undershoot its 2 per cent inflation target for the foreseeable future. It may be that alternative investments in Canada are such losing propositions that people are willing to accept low or even negative real returns. Finally, there may be a flight to quality here, with Canada being seen as a safe haven in a world full of economic turmoil. It is likely a combination of all three.

Bond markets are screaming loud and clear that worldwide demand remains low, and, in the medium-term, inflation is likely to stay under the Bank of Canada’s target. On Tuesday, the Bank of Canada will be giving its interest rate announcement. Given the current economic data and low inflation, the prudent move for Mark Carney is to lower the overnight rate by 25 basis points.

Top-producing brokers in the US are dancing as fast as they can:

Many senior advisers at brokerage arms of major banks say they are considering jumping ship for the first time, frustrated by problems plaguing their parent companies, from credit rating downgrades to staff cutbacks to bothersome technology changes.

So far in 2012, advisers who managed nearly $50-billion (U.S.) in client assets have left top U.S. brokerages Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and Bank of America Merrill Lynch, an already high figure that is expected to grow, industry experts say.

Twelve teams that each managed more than $1-billion in client assets have moved in 2012. In a typical year, fewer than a handful of teams that size switch firms, experts said.

Late last year, when Bank of America’s stock price plunged, UBS Wealth Management Americas offered Merrill advisers signing bonuses that were about 30 per cent higher than normal, said financial services recruiter Alan Reed. UBS added at least 24 veteran Merrill Lynch advisers who managed roughly $4.4-billion in client assets..

Meanwhile, these super-brokers may have a wonderful fourth quarter:

Sell.

That’s the message from some financial advisers, who are telling wealthy clients that the remainder of 2012 amounts to a last-chance sale on federal tax rates. Taxes are set to rise in January in the U.S., pushing the top rate on dividends to 43.4 percent from 15 percent and the top rate on capital gains to 23.8 percent from 15 percent.

Federal taxes on ordinary income will rise to as much as 39.6 percent from 35 percent. Long-term capital gains rates will increase to a maximum 20 percent from 15 percent, plus an additional 3.8 percent for high-income earners as a result of the 2010 health-care law.

The opportunity for individuals to transfer up to $5.12 million — or $10.24 million for couples — free of estate taxes and gift taxes also is set to expire at the end of the year and drop to $1 million. Legislation enacted in 2010 raised the lifetime estate-and-gift-tax exclusion for 2011 and 2012.

IIROC has found another opportunity for expansion:

Canada’s securities industry regulator is calling for tougher oversight of the Canadian version of Libor.

In an emailed statement, a spokesperson for the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) said that while it isn’t aware of any problems with the Canadian Dealer Offered Rate, or Cdor, “[r]ecent experiences with LIBOR have pointed to a need for increased scrutiny of such survey-based reference rates.”

[IIROC vice president of public affairs] Ms. [Lucy] Becker said that when IIROC’s review is complete — she did not say when that might happen — the results will be submitted to “relevant stakeholders” including Canadian regulators and government agencies.

It’s a big market:

Essentially a Canadian version of Libor, the Canadian Dealer Offered Rate is the rate at which Canadian banks lend to one another based on bid prices for bankers’ acceptances.

The bankers’ acceptance market itself is relatively small, but Cdor is used as a benchmark for a whole raft of loans, floating rate notes, interest rate swaps and derivatives that are the life-blood of this country’s financial market. In total we’re talking about $6-trillion dollars worth on any given day, according to Louis Gagnon, a finance professor at Queen’s University’s School of Business and a former risk manager at Royal Bank of Canada.

DBRS confirmed Weston at Pfd-3:

DBRS has today confirmed the ratings of the Notes & Debentures of George Weston Limited (Weston or the Company) and the Issuer Rating at BBB, the Preferred Shares at Pfd-3 and the Commercial Paper at R-2 (high), all with Stable trends. The confirmation of the ratings is based on the stable operating performance of Weston Bakery, the stable ratings of Loblaw Companies Limited (Loblaw; see separate press release), in which Weston holds a 63% stake, and the Company’s significant cash resources, which are expected to be used toward growth opportunities. The ratings continue to be supported by the Company’s strong brands and above-average operating efficiency, while reflecting the volatile input cost environment and the mature nature of the bakery industry.

DBRS believes that Weston has the ability to maintain its current BBB rating and a financial profile commensurate with the current rating category (i.e., ultimate gross debt-to-EBITDA of up to 2.5 times (x) or net debt-to-EBITDA of up to 2.0x).

DBRS will continue to monitor Weston’s decisions on the deployment of its remaining cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, and will assess the potential impact on the Company’s credit risk profile at such time.

As for the short-term rating, Weston’s liquidity profile remains commensurate with the R-2 (high) rating category, based on its long-term rating, positive free cash flow generating capacity, high level of cash and marketable investments, and manageable debt and maturity schedule.

The credit risk profile of Loblaw remains relatively stable, with a long-term rating of BBB and short-term rating of R-2 (middle). The ratings for Weston at BBB and R-2 (high) reflect its operating businesses and financial risk profile, both on a stand-alone basis, as well as consolidated with its ownership interest in Loblaw. As such, if there is any change in Loblaw’s ratings, it will not necessarily affect the ratings of Weston.

DBRS confirmed Loblaw at Pfd-3, proud issuer of L.PR.A:

DBRS has today confirmed Loblaw Companies Limited’s (Loblaw or the Company) Issuer Rating, Medium-Term Notes and Debentures ratings at BBB, its Cumulative Redeemable Second Preferred Shares, Series A rating at Pfd-3, and its Commercial Paper rating at R-2 (middle). All trends remain Stable. The confirmation of the ratings is based on Loblaw’s stable financial profile, while recognizing that the Company’s earnings profile will remain under pressure in the near to medium term due to intensifying competition combined with a difficult consumer environment. The ratings continue to be supported by Loblaw’s strong market position, large scale, national diversification, and industry-leading private labels. The ratings also reflect the high level of and intensifying competition in food retailing, particularly with the emergence of new non-traditional players (i.e., Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (Wal-Mart) and Target Corporation (Target)), and high levels of union penetration.

DBRS believes that Loblaw will maintain a financial profile commensurate with the current rating based on the Company’s free cash flow generating capacity and moderate debt levels. Cash flow from operations should continue to track operating income and decline modestly to the $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion range in 2012 and 2013, while capex requirements should remain at elevated levels through 2013 and begin to moderate somewhat thereafter. Dividend policy is expected to remain consistent with recent practice, which DBRS expects should result in free cash flow before changes in working capital in the range of breakeven to $150 million. Therefore, while the Company has the potential to improve its credit metrics by applying free cash flow and cash-on-hand to debt reduction, DBRS believes that Loblaw may use these sources of cash to invest in growth and/or return value to shareholders over the longer term. As such, DBRS expects that balance sheet-debt levels and key credit metrics should remain in a range acceptable for the current rating category.

It was a mildly positive day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums up 11bp, FixedResets gaining 2bp and DeemedRetractibles flat. Volatility was non-existent. Volume was heavy, with the TXPR Revision effective at Monday’s opening.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3406 % 2,468.6
FixedFloater 4.24 % 3.57 % 32,727 18.23 1 -0.0892 % 3,795.7
Floater 2.97 % 2.99 % 64,065 19.76 3 0.3406 % 2,665.5
OpRet 4.62 % 2.98 % 59,062 1.39 4 0.0191 % 2,569.3
SplitShare 5.39 % 4.77 % 71,334 4.50 3 -0.0262 % 2,846.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0191 % 2,349.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.28 % 1.73 % 85,823 0.35 27 0.1129 % 2,306.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.02 % 4.92 % 45,188 15.49 4 -0.1538 % 2,577.9
FixedReset 4.97 % 3.02 % 184,882 3.83 73 0.0206 % 2,441.3
Deemed-Retractible 4.94 % 3.56 % 132,870 1.15 47 0.0033 % 2,380.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
No individual gains or losses exceeding 1%!
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible 327,372 Added to TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
ENB.PR.N FixedReset 209,883 Added to TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-19
Maturity Price : 23.26
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : 3.82 %
HSB.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 186,442 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-11-18
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 3.40 %
ENB.PR.P FixedReset 171,702 Added to TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-19
Maturity Price : 23.21
Evaluated at bid price : 25.36
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 160,492 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Premium 159,753 Added to TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-09-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.49
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
TD.PR.P Deemed-Retractible 139,100 Deleted from TXPR
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-12-01
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.18
Bid-YTW : -2.22 %
CM.PR.M FixedReset 133,006 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.74
Bid-YTW : 2.40 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 132,965 TD crossed blocks of 50,000 and 27,200 at 25.35. RBC crossed 50,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.36
Bid-YTW : 3.61 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 131,587 Added to TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-19
Maturity Price : 23.61
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : 2.77 %
IAG.PR.C FixedReset 122,340 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.00
Bid-YTW : 3.08 %
GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 114,068 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-03-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.45
Bid-YTW : 4.99 %
RY.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 110,243 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.86
Bid-YTW : 3.64 %
NA.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 108,575 Added to TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-05-15
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.00
Bid-YTW : -1.70 %
RY.PR.N FixedReset 100,010 TD crossed 25,500 and 48,100 at 26.75. Scotia crossed 16,600 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.69
Bid-YTW : 1.88 %
There were 44 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BNA.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 26.60 – 26.99
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2993

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-11-18
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.60
Bid-YTW : -10.86 %

CU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 25.98 – 26.28
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2203

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.98
Bid-YTW : 3.22 %

GWO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible Quote: 26.41 – 26.67
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1818

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-12-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.41
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %

BAM.PR.O OpRet Quote: 25.36 – 25.59
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1561

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2013-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.36
Bid-YTW : 3.32 %

PWF.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 25.83 – 26.09
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1913

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.83
Bid-YTW : 3.20 %

BAM.PR.Z FixedReset Quote: 26.19 – 26.37
Spot Rate : 0.1800
Average : 0.1202

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.19
Bid-YTW : 3.86 %

Issue Comments

PIC.PR.A To Get Bigger

Strathbridge Asset Management has announced (but not yet on the fund’s website):

Premium Income Corporation (the “Fund”) is pleased to announce that it has filed a preliminary short form prospectus relating to an offering of rights (“Rights”) to holders (“Shareholders”) of its class A shares (“Class A Shares”) and preferred shares (“Preferred Shares”). Each Shareholder of record on a date to be established prior to filing the final short form prospectus will receive one Right for each Class A or Preferred Share held.

Two Rights will entitle the holder to acquire one Class A Share and one Preferred Share upon payment of the subscription price. The record date and the subscription price will be determined at the time the Fund files its final prospectus for the offering.

The exercise of Rights by holders will provide the Fund with additional capital that can be used to take advantage of attractive investment opportunities and is also expected to increase the trading liquidity of the Class A Shares and the Preferred Shares as well as reduce the management expense ratio of the Fund.

The Fund invests in a portfolio consisting principally of common shares of Bank of Montreal, The Bank of Nova Scotia, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Royal Bank of Canada and The Toronto-Dominion Bank (the “Banks”). To generate additional returns above the dividend income earned on the Fund’s portfolio, the Fund may from time to time write covered call options in respect of some or all of the common shares in the Fund’s portfolio. The Fund may also, from time to time, write cash-covered put options in respect of securities in which the Fund is permitted to invest. The manager and investment manager of the Fund is Strathbridge Asset Management Inc.

It’s very interesting that they will be giving rights to the preferred shareholders as well.

Issue Comments

DBRS Increasingly Nervous About BAM

DBRS has announced that it:

notes the trend change of Brookfield Office Properties Inc. (BOP) to Negative from Stable on October 18, 2012. DBRS has indicated in the past that rating changes at Brookfield Asset Management Inc.’s (BAM) major subsidiaries could have rating implications for BAM at the corporate level. DBRS is also of the view that BAM’s overall credit profile has weakened within its current rating category in recent years as a result of fluctuating cash flows from its opportunistic investments and increased leverage at the corporate level.

With this, there remains minimal room for further deterioration, as indicated in our most recent report on BAM, published on April 24, 2012. As such, DBRS believes that BAM’s current ratings could come under pressure due to: (1) a material deterioration or rating downgrade in one or more of the core businesses (including BOP); (2) corporate-level financial metrics for 2012 fall short of our targets (funds from operation (FFO)-to-debt of 30% or higher and FFO interest coverage of 5.0 times); or (3) a material increase in the proportion of BAM’s invested capital in less-stable opportunistic investments.

DBRS will continue to monitor BAM’s performance to determine whether one or more of any of these issues brings sufficient pressure to warrant a trend change or other rating action.

The Negative Trend on Brookfield Office Properties was announced on October 18 and reported on PrefBlog.

Brookfield Asset Management is the proud issuer of:

  • FixedResets BAM.PF.A, BAM.PF.B, BAM.PR.P, BAM.PR.R, BAM.PR.T, BAM.PR.X, BAM.PR.Z
  • Floaters BAM.PR.B, BAM.PR.C, BAM.PR.K
  • RatchetRate BAM.PR.E
  • FixedFloater BAM.PR.G
  • OperatingRetractible BAM.PR.J, BAM.PR.O
  • Straight Perpetual BAM.PR.M, BAM.PR.N

A downgrade of BAM would also have an immediate effect on the SplitShares issued by BAM Split Corp.: BNA.PR.B, BNA.PR.C, BNA.PR.D and BNA.PR.E

DBRS’ increasing discomfort with the rating on BAM has been reported on PrefBlog in several posts: BAM To Slow Balance Sheet Deterioration and DBRS: BAM is Not-Quite-Trend-Negative. S&P assigned Outlook Negative to BAM last spring, and Outlook Negative to BPO in the summer.

Issue Comments

DBRS: BPO Trend Negative

DBRS has announced that it:

has today confirmed the ratings of Brookfield Office Properties Inc. (Brookfield or the Company) at BBB (high) and Pfd-3 (high), changing the trend to Negative from Stable. The trend change reflects DBRS’s concern that Brookfield’s coverage ratios will remain at levels that are inconsistent with the current rating category, particularly in light of the slower-than-expected progress in re-leasing space at the World Financial Center (WFC) in New York City.

DBRS had previously expected Brookfield’s coverage ratios to show meaningful improvement by the end of 2012 or early 2013. DBRS now believes it will take longer to re-lease the upcoming vacancy at the WFC to new tenants. As a result, DBRS expects that operating income from this space may not stabilize until the latter part of 2014 or in early 2015. In addition, DBRS believes the Company’s U.S. markets will likely remain challenged by high unemployment rates and slow, uneven economic growth. As a result, material improvement in coverage ratios over the near to medium term will, in DBRS’s opinion, be difficult for the Company to achieve. Lack of improvement in coverage ratios due to weakening operating performance and/or more aggressive financial management would likely result in a downgrade in the near term. The pressure on Brookfield’s ratings could be relieved if the Company took meaningful steps to strengthen its financial profile by lowering debt levels and improving its EBITDA interest coverage ratio back to levels above 2.00 times.

Despite challenging economic conditions, particularly in the United States, DBRS expects Brookfield’s high-quality office properties in high barrier-to-entry markets and in-place average rental rates that are currently below average market rental rates to provide underlying support to cash flow stability going forward. In terms of financial flexibility, Brookfield has sufficient liquidity and sources of capital (including proceeds from a further sell-down of the Company’s interest in Brookfield Canada Office Properties and potential non-core asset sales in the range of $200 million to $250 million) to fund upcoming commitments.

Brookfield Office Properties is the proud issuer of:

  • OperatingRetractibles BPO.PR.F, BPO.PR.H, BPO.PR.J, BPO.PR.K
  • FixedResets BPO.PR.L, BPO.PR.N, BPO.PR.P, BPO.PR.R and BPO.PR.T
Issue Comments

TDS.PR.C Upgraded to Pfd-2

DBRS has announced that it:

has today upgraded the rating of the Class C Preferred Shares, Series 1 (the Class C Preferred Shares) issued by TD Split Inc. (the Company) to Pfd-2 from Pfd-2 (low).

On November 21, 2011, DBRS confirmed the ratings on the Class C Preferred Shares at Pfd-2 (low) mainly based on the stable downside protection levels available to holders of the Class C Preferred Shares over the prior year. Since the rating confirmation, the net asset value (NAV) of the Company has been increasing fairly steadily, rising from $25.93 on December 1, 2011, to $29.41 as of October 11, 2012. Downside protection available to the holders of the Class C Preferred Shares increased to approximately 66.0% as of October 11, 2012, from 61.4% on December 1, 2011. In addition, TD raised its dividends on August 30, 2012, increasing quarterly distributions by five cents to 77 cents per share. This dividend boost increases the Class C Preferred Share distribution coverage ratio to 2.0 times. The Class C Preferred Shares are being upgraded mainly due to the increased downside protection available and the improved distribution coverage ratio.

The main constraints to the rating are the following:

(1) The downside protection provided to holders of the Class C Preferred Shares is dependent on the value of the shares in the Portfolio.

(2) Volatility of price and changes in the dividend policies of TD may result in significant reductions in downside protection or dividend coverage from time to time.

(3) The concentration of the entire Portfolio is in the common shares of TD.

TDS.PR.C is tracked by HIMIPref™ but is relegated to the Scraps index on volume concerns. It was last mentioned on PrefBlog when there was a partial call for redemption last November.

Market Action

October 18, 2012

The latest news in Big Brother Regulation is LIBOR reform:

The Treasury said in London today that it will enshrine in law the way Libor is set, create a criminal offense for those who misreport it and give regulators the power to oversee the setting of the rate and other financial-industry benchmarks.

The FSA will encourage more banks to submit quotes as part of the revamp, Wheatley, an FSA managing director, said last month, and could force uncooperative banks to submit quotes with its new powers.

Sounds great, eh? Criminalize mistakes – and, presumably, make the survival of the bank dependent upon every single employee being completely pure at all times – and then, because only a lunatic would get involved in business on such terms, make it mandatory. Oh, it will take a lot of well paid regulators to enforce this one!

The government is egged on by eggheads:

First, by forcing banks to commit to their quotes—actually trade at them when given the opportunity—banks need only make an honest market determination. They only need their army of lawyers when, for some reason on a given day, they decide they want to make a trade outside of the range they’ve quoted. This is a parsimonious method for ensuring accurate and reliable quotes.

Clearly, the authors have never actually traded anything. Quotes for bonds, to take just one example, can change dramatically in the course of a single telephone call. If such a rule is put in place, spreads will be as wide as allowed by law.

DBRS confirmed BPO Properties (proud issuer of BPP.PR.G, BPP.PR.J and BPP.PR.M):

DBRS has today confirmed the Issuer Rating of Brookfield Canada Office Properties (BCOP) at BBB with a Stable trend and has also confirmed the Issuer Rating and Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares rating of BPO Properties Ltd. (BPO Properties) at BBB and Pfd-3, respectively, with Stable trends.

The confirmations follow the change in Brookfield Office Properties Inc.’s (BOP) trends to Negative from Stable. Although BCOP and BPO Properties benefit from their close association with BOP, particularly from property and asset management agreements, the ratings are not directly linked at this level. DBRS believes that the current ratings of BCOP and BPO Properties continue to reflect the solid operating performance of the Canadian office portfolio and steady financial credit metrics. That said, DBRS would become concerned if BOP’s credit risk profile continued to deteriorate beyond the ratings of BCOP and BPO Properties.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums up 5bp, FixedResets down 5bp and DeemedRetractibles flat. Volatility was very low. Volume was average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0378 % 2,460.2
FixedFloater 4.24 % 3.56 % 33,174 18.24 1 0.0892 % 3,799.1
Floater 2.98 % 3.01 % 66,592 19.71 3 -0.0378 % 2,656.4
OpRet 4.62 % 3.11 % 61,484 0.66 4 -0.0095 % 2,568.8
SplitShare 5.39 % 4.78 % 71,820 4.50 3 0.2364 % 2,847.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0095 % 2,348.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.29 % 1.95 % 85,620 0.35 27 0.0468 % 2,304.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.01 % 4.90 % 45,793 15.47 4 0.0410 % 2,581.9
FixedReset 4.97 % 3.00 % 184,863 3.83 73 -0.0519 % 2,440.8
Deemed-Retractible 4.94 % 3.58 % 129,196 1.16 47 -0.0033 % 2,380.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
FTS.PR.E OpRet 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.96
Bid-YTW : -1.76 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 425,994 Added to TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-18
Maturity Price : 23.61
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : 2.77 %
RY.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 126,215 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.81
Bid-YTW : 3.70 %
RY.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 106,641 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.84
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 103,750 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
FTS.PR.E OpRet 85,600 National crossed 75,000 at 27.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.96
Bid-YTW : -1.76 %
BNS.PR.O Deemed-Retractible 76,500 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-04-26
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.70
Bid-YTW : -0.20 %
There were 29 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.A OpRet Quote: 25.72 – 26.00
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1707

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-19
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.72
Bid-YTW : 3.23 %

RY.PR.A Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.90 – 26.13
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1494

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 2.80 %

GWO.PR.J FixedReset Quote: 25.91 – 26.15
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1613

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.91
Bid-YTW : 3.17 %

IAG.PR.E Deemed-Retractible Quote: 26.77 – 26.94
Spot Rate : 0.1700
Average : 0.1034

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-12-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.77
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %

MFC.PR.I FixedReset Quote: 25.51 – 25.73
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1640

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-09-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %

SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.45 – 23.61
Spot Rate : 0.1600
Average : 0.1043

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.45
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %

Issue Comments

LB.PR.F Reaches Premium On Excellent Volume

LB.PR.F is a FixedReset, 4.00%+260, announced October 11. This issue will be tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to Scraps on credit concerns.

The prospectus supplement (SEDAR, October 11, 2012) contains some interesting wrinkles on the Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC) theme:

Under the new Basel III rules, effective January 1, 2013, all non-common Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital instruments issued by a bank must have, either in their contractual terms and conditions or by way of statute in the issuer’s home country, a clause requiring a full and permanent conversion into common shares of such bank upon certain trigger events at the point where such bank is determined to be no longer viable. The Preferred Shares Series 11 as a result will not qualify as non-common Tier 1 capital under the new capital rules as no such conversion mechanism exists. As a result, the Bank may, with the prior approval of the Superintendent, redeem the Preferred Shares Series 11 in accordance with their terms. See “Risk Factors”.

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has announced new international bank capital adequacy rules (commonly called Basel III) which will amend the existing Basel II capital management framework. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions of Canada (“OSFI”) has announced that it plans to adopt the new Basel III rules for purposes of Canadian bank capital guidelines. Under the new Basel III rules, effective January 1, 2013, all non-common Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital instruments issued by a bank must have, either in their contractual terms and conditions or by way of statute in the issuer’s home country, a clause requiring a full and permanent conversion into common shares of such bank upon certain trigger events at the point where such bank is determined to be no longer viable. The Preferred Shares Series 11 and, if and when issued, the Preferred Shares Series 12 as a result will not qualify as non-common Tier 1 capital under the new capital rules as no such conversion mechanism exists. For purposes of being included in the Bank’s regulatory capital under the new capital rules, the Preferred Shares Series 11 and the Preferred Shares Series 12 would be phased out beginning January 31, 2013 (their recognition will be capped at 90% of total Tier 1 capital from January 1, 2013, with the cap reducing by 10% in each subsequent year). As a result, the Bank may, with the prior approval of the Superintendent, redeem the Preferred Shares Series 11 and the Preferred Shares Series 12, if any, in accordance with their respective terms. If prevailing rates are lower at the time of redemption, a purchaser would not be able to reinvest the redemption proceeds in a comparable security at an effective yield as high as the yields on the Preferred Shares Series 11 or the Preferred Shares Series 12 being redeemed. The Bank’s redemption right may also adversely impact a purchaser’s ability to sell Preferred Shares Series 11 and Preferred Shares Series 12 as the optional redemption date or period approaches.

The 2011 Annual Report (complete with slogan “Our team – It’s (sic) Capital” on the front cover) states:

The BCBS published further details in January 2011 with regard to qualifying criteria for capital under the guidelines. OSFI subsequently provided additional guidance regarding the treatment of non-qualifying capital instruments in February 2011. As a result, certain capital instruments will no longer qualify fully as capital beginning January 1, 2013. The Bank’s
non-common capital instruments will be considered non-qualifying capital instruments under Basel III and will therefore be subject to a 10% phase-out per year beginning in 2013. These non-common capital instruments include both Series 9 and 10 preferred shares and Series 2010-1 subordinated Medium Term Notes. The Bank has not issued any hybrids or innovative Tier 1 instruments and none of its capital instruments are subject to a regulatory event redemption clause. Therefore, no regulatory event redemption is expected.

What are the Series 2010-1 sub MTNs? I’m glad you asked that:

On November 2, 2010, the Bank issued $250.0 million Series 2010-1 Medium Term Notes (Subordinated Indebtedness), for net proceeds of $248.4 million. The contractual maturity of the Series 2010-1 Medium Term Notes is November 2, 2020. Holders of the Series 2010-1 Medium Term Notes are entitled to receive semi-annually fixed interest payments for the initial five-year period ending November 2, 2015 at a rate of 3.70% per annum. The interest rate on the Series 2010-1 Medium Term Notes will reset on November 2, 2015 at the three-month bankers’ acceptance rate plus 1.76% per annum. The Series 2010-1 Medium Term Notes will not be redeemable prior to November 2, 2015. Subject to the provisions of the Bank Act, to the prior consent of OSFI and to the provisions described in the pricing supplement dated October 25, 2010, at any time on or after November 2, 2015, the Bank may redeem all or any part of the then outstanding Series 2010-1 Medium Term Notes, at the Bank’s option, by the payment of an amount in cash equal to the par value together with unpaid accrued interest. The $250.0 million Series 2010-1 Medium Term Notes are presented net of unamortized issue costs of $1.6 million on the consolidated balance sheet and include a net fair value adjustment of $5.9 million to reflect the change in the carrying value previously covered by a fair value hedge.

The Series 9 preferreds, LB.PR.D, pay 6% while Series 10, LB.PR.E, pay 5.25%. Both are Straight Perpetuals.

All this leaves me feeling a bit confused as to why this issue has been left without an NVCC clause. My first thought was that they had some capital instruments outstanding with such an absurdly low coupon that the company wanted to keep them outstanding for as long as possible; issuing these shares to be outstanding when the base for the sliding scale of Tier 1 eligibility is set could have helped such an effort. But this is not the case! Their non-common Tier 1 is actually a little bit expensive; if anything, I would have thought they’d issue NVCC shares to fund the redemption of LB.PR.D.

I just don’t get it. Any suggestions will be welcome. I stand ready to be corrected once the day comes, but I don’t think that a bank NVCC preferred will cost much more than a non-NVCC preferred; we Canadian know that not one of our banks will fail, because the government won’t let it happen.

Anyway, given the absence of an NVCC clause, I have put a DeemedMaturity entry into the call schedule, at 25.00 for 2022-1-31.

The issue traded 438,529 shares today in an unusually wide range of 25.18-65 before closing at 25.30-32, 5×28. Vital statistics are:

LB.PR.F FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-12-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
Issue Comments

SBC.PR.A To Get Bigger

Brompton Split Banc Corp. has announced:

it has filed a preliminary short form prospectus with respect to a treasury offering of Preferred shares and Class A shares.

Brompton Split Banc Corp. invests in the common shares of the six largest Canadian banks with selective covered call writing in order to generate additional distributable income. Currently, the portfolio consists of common shares of:
Bank of Montreal
Royal Bank of Canada
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
The Bank of Nova Scotia
National Bank of Canada
The Toronto-Dominion Bank

The closing price of the Preferred shares on the TSX on October 17, 2012 was $10.22. The investment objectives for the Preferred shares are to provide holders with fixed cumulative preferential quarterly cash distributions in the amount of $0.45 per annum paid in equal quarterly amounts, and to return the original issue price to holders of Preferred shares on the current maturity date of November 29, 2017.

The closing price of the Class A shares on the TSX on October 17, 2012 was $11.34. The investment objectives for the Class A shares are to provide holders with regular monthly cash distributions targeted to be $0.10 and to provide the opportunity for growth in net asset value per Class A share.

The final Class A and Preferred share offering prices will be announced in the final prospectus, and will be set at levels that ensure that existing unitholders are not diluted.

The syndicate of agents for the offering is being co-led by RBC Capital Markets and CIBC and includes BMO Capital Markets, National Bank Financial Inc., Scotiabank, TD Securities Inc., GMP Securities L.P., Macquarie Private Wealth Inc., Raymond James Ltd., Canaccord Genuity Corp., Desjardins Securities Inc., and Mackie Research Capital Corporation.

SBC.PR.A recently announced the details of their term extension.

SBC.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™ but is relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

Market Action

October 17, 2012

Nothing happened today.

It was a poor day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums losing 10bp, FixedResets off 3bp and DeemedRetractibles down 7bp. Volatility was muted. Volume more than made up in strength what it lacked in breadth – probably related to the TXPR index changes.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 4.93%, equivalent to 6.41% interest at the standard conversion factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 4.4%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 200bp, a sharp narrowing from the 225bp reported October 10.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1705 % 2,461.2
FixedFloater 4.24 % 3.57 % 32,671 18.24 1 0.0446 % 3,795.7
Floater 2.98 % 3.00 % 67,526 19.74 3 0.1705 % 2,657.4
OpRet 4.62 % 2.80 % 62,253 0.66 4 -0.1998 % 2,569.0
SplitShare 5.40 % 4.84 % 71,603 4.50 3 0.3824 % 2,840.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1998 % 2,349.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.29 % 2.04 % 87,007 0.35 27 -0.1056 % 2,302.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.01 % 4.93 % 45,950 15.48 4 0.2158 % 2,580.8
FixedReset 4.97 % 2.97 % 187,040 3.83 73 -0.0265 % 2,442.1
Deemed-Retractible 4.94 % 3.49 % 124,057 1.01 47 -0.0715 % 2,380.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
VNR.PR.A FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-10-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.21
Bid-YTW : 3.32 %
ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-17
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
PWF.PR.M FixedReset 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.10
Bid-YTW : 2.34 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
ENB.PR.N FixedReset 459,866 Added to TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.55
Bid-YTW : 3.80 %
ENB.PR.P FixedReset 454,663 Added to TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-17
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 25.31
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 335,412 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-17
Maturity Price : 23.52
Evaluated at bid price : 25.78
Bid-YTW : 3.70 %
TD.PR.P Deemed-Retractible 316,447 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-12-01
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.11
Bid-YTW : 0.04 %
BMO.PR.N FixedReset 252,552 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.70
Bid-YTW : 2.11 %
RY.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 236,716 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.78
Bid-YTW : 3.78 %
GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 214,224 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-03-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.40
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 204,934 Added to TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-17
Maturity Price : 23.64
Evaluated at bid price : 25.58
Bid-YTW : 2.75 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 179,517 Added to TXPR
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-17
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 25.27
Bid-YTW : 3.89 %
TD.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible 169,700 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-01-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.42
Bid-YTW : -0.88 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 155,705 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %
CM.PR.M FixedReset 126,992 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.70
Bid-YTW : 2.48 %
BNS.PR.O Deemed-Retractible 116,051 Deleted from TXPR.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-04-26
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.70
Bid-YTW : -0.20 %
There were 25 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.60 – 25.90
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1918

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-17
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 5.18 %

BAM.PR.B Floater Quote: 17.72 – 18.00
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1892

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-17
Maturity Price : 17.72
Evaluated at bid price : 17.72
Bid-YTW : 2.98 %

IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium Quote: 27.04 – 27.50
Spot Rate : 0.4600
Average : 0.3751

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-12-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.04
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %

POW.PR.D Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.17 – 25.38
Spot Rate : 0.2100
Average : 0.1321

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.17
Bid-YTW : 4.69 %

FTS.PR.E OpRet Quote: 26.68 – 26.95
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.2071

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.68
Bid-YTW : -0.05 %

BAM.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 26.73 – 26.99
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1984

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.73
Bid-YTW : 3.52 %

Issue Comments

CCS Outlook Positive: S&P

Standard & Poor’s has announced:

  • •The combined operating performance of CFSL’s operating entities, CGIC and CLIC, has improved.
  • •We view the capital adequacy for the consolidated Co-operators group as
    very strong.

  • •We are affirming the financial strength and issuer credit ratings on CGIC and CLIC and the counterparty credit rating on CFSL.
  • •We revised the outlook on all these ratings to positive from stable.

… that it affirmed its ‘BBB+’ long-term financial strength and issuer credit ratings on the operating companies of the Co-operators Group, Co-operators General Insurance Co. (CGIC) and Co-operators Life Insurance Co. (CLIC). We also affirmed our ‘BBB-‘ long-term counterparty credit rating on their immediate holding company Co-operators Financial Services Ltd. (CFSL). We revised the outlooks on all ratings to positive from stable.

“The positive outlooks reflect our view that the continued and improved capital strength at the consolidated Co-operators group is very strong,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Jieqiu Fan. The significantly improved operating performance at CGIC in the past two years partially benefited from the Ontario Auto Reform that capped escalating accident benefit claims, and was offset somewhat by the weakening operating performance at CLIC. CGIC had underwriting losses in 2008-2010 driven by many claims from the Ontario auto sector. In 2011 CGIC generated underwriting profits, and continued to do so in the first six months of 2012.

The ratings are also based on the company’s strong competitive position as the fifth-largest property/casualty insurance company in Canada and its well-established multichannel distribution. Offsetting these strengths are its concentration in the highly regulated Ontario auto sector and expense ratios higher than peers’.

We expect CLIC’s operating performance to be marginal in 2012, but improve in 2013 to an after-tax return on equity of 4%-5%. We expect CFSL’s debt plus preferred-to-total capital ratio to remain less than 35% and its EBIT fixed-charge coverage to be near or more than 3.5x. In the next 12 months, if the company meets these expectations and we believe this performance level is sustainable, we could raise the ratings by one notch.
Alternatively, we could lower the ratings if the company significantly underperforms (five or more combined ratio points) the Canadian personal lines industry or experiences significant deterioration in its capital strength, reflecting a low ‘A’ level of consolidated capital adequacy.

Co-operators General Insurance Co. (referred to as CGIC in the press release) is the proud issuer of CCS.PR.C and CCS.PR.D. Both are tracked by HIMIPref™; both are relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

S&P rates the preferreds at P-2(low). The company was upgraded to Pfd-3(high) by DBRS in July.