PrefBlog

There’s no smoking gun, but staff turnover may have played a role in the JPMorgan data breach:

As hackers pierced JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s (JPM) defenses in June, the bank’s cybersecurity chief was just getting acquainted with his employer and its sprawling technology infrastructure.

Greg Rattray, a former U.S. Air Force commander for information warfare, became JPMorgan’s head of information security that month after upheaval at the highest levels of the bank’s tech division. His predecessor, Anthony Belfiore, had resigned early this year to join at least five JPMorgan leaders at First Data Corp. In between, Anish Bhimani was acting security officer while holding at least one other tech role.
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JPMorgan’s technology leaders began leaving after April 2013, when the bank’s co-chief operating officer, Frank Bisignano, 55, departed to become CEO of First Data, the Atlanta-based payment processor. He has known Dimon since the 1980s, serving as his longtime deputy. Bisignano’s last job at JPMorgan included a focus on technology and security.

He was joined a few months later by Guy Chiarello, JPMorgan’s chief information officer since 2007, who became First Data’s president. Chiarello is an industry veteran who was previously CIO at Morgan Stanley, where he spent more than two decades.

Tom Higgins, JPMorgan’s head of operational control in charge of physical and technology security, also joined First Data. So did Cindy Armine, JPMorgan’s compliance chief, and Christine Larsen, a JPMorgan executive vice president in charge of process improvement and enterprise-program management.

This is a guy I like:

[Founder of ThinkTank Learning Steven] Ma, a former hedge fund analyst, makes bets on student admissions the way a trader plays the commodities markets. Using 12 variables from a student’s profile—from grades and test scores to extracurricular activities and immigration status—Ma’s software crunches the odds of admission to a range of top-shelf colleges. His proprietary algorithm assigns varying weights to different parameters, derived from his analysis of the successes and failures of thousands of students he’s coached over the years. Ma’s algorithm, for example, predicts that a U.S.-born high school senior with a 3.8 GPA, an SAT score of 2,000 (out of 2,400), moderate leadership credentials, and 800 hours of extracurricular activities, has a 20.4 percent chance of admission to New York University and a 28.1 percent shot at the University of Southern California. Those odds determine the fee ThinkTank charges that student for its guaranteed consulting package: $25,931 to apply to NYU and $18,826 for USC.
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College admissions officers and other educators scoff at Ma’s guarantees; they say no one can predict acceptances to elite colleges because grades and scores are only one part of the highly subjective process. Ma counters that anything can be quantified. His algorithm runs so-called inference calculations using the profile data from thousands of ThinkTank students who’ve already racked up acceptances and rejections from top schools. “With enough data,” he says, “nothing is subjective.”

It’s an interesting article; I find the current emphasis on extracurricular activities to be very strange. Who cares? Is there any reason to believe that they make you a better person, even supposing that being a good person should have any influence on university acceptance?

It is my belief that whatever might have been the case when precious little extracurricular activities were less pervasive, they now measure little more than willingness to jump through arbitrary hoops – and in many cases, “willingness” is a secondary matter, given that you need forty ‘community hours’ to graduate from high school. I think the emphasis on these things does more to breed hypocrisy and robotic obedience than good citizenship – and Mr. Ma’s systematic gaming of the system is a good illustration!

More regulations imply more games. Some consider this news:

Banks in the European Union that attempt to evade new bonus rules face a “coordinated policy response” from the bloc’s regulators.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s financial-services chief, called for action on the “politically very important matter” of lenders that have turned to so-called allowances to get around an EU ban on bonuses worth more than twice fixed pay.
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Barclays Plc (BARC), HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc are among banks that have introduced allowances in response to the bonus limit. Lenders have warned that the cap will harm their competitiveness and force them to increase fixed pay.

Allowances, also known as role-based pay, are a regularly adjustable part of employees’ pay packets. They are considered by the banks to be part of salary unaffected by the bonus cap.

Some consider enormous housing-related consumer debt to be a problem. Some don’t.:

Sweden’s Social Democrats are heading for a national election victory backed by housing plans that could dig the country deeper into debt.

Magdalena Andersson, the party’s economic spokeswoman and the likely finance minister if the Social Democrat-led opposition prevails in this month’s election, has proposed using state-owned bank SBAB to bring down mortgage rates, already at four-year lows, to make housing more affordable. Andersson, whose party would boost spending on healthcare and education as well as housing, also suggested relaxing some rules designed to stem the growth in household debt, which is at an all-time high.
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The country’s housing shortage, a consequence of a growing population and strict regulations that stymie new construction, has caused prices to more than double since 2000. As home values have jumped, so has household borrowing. It increased 5.5 percent in July — the most in 34 months — driven by a 5.8 percent increase in mortgage borrowing, Statistics Sweden said Aug. 27. Swedish households with mortgages owe their creditors an average of almost four times their disposable income while the overall average debt load of Swedes is about 175 percent.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 4bp, FixedResets down 8bp and DeemedRetractibles off 3bp. Volatility was below average. Volume was extremely low.

US jobs numbers disappointed:

Payrolls climbed by 142,000 workers, less than the 230,000 median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and the smallest gain this year, data from the Labor Department showed today. The unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent from 6.2 percent in July as people left the workforce.

… but it’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good:

U.S. stocks rose a fifth week, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) its longest rally this year, as investors speculated weaker jobs growth will prevent the Federal Reserve from raising rates sooner than anticipated.

European shares rallied for a fourth week after the region’s central bank boosted stimulus. Emerging-market equities advanced, led by Russia’s Micex Index, after Ukraine and rebels agreed to a cease-fire. Producers of consumer products led U.S. stocks higher, while energy shares sank as oil tumbled for the sixth time in seven weeks. Apple Inc. (AAPL) dropped the most since February after a competitor introduced new smartphones.

The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to a record 2,007.71, reversing losses on the final day after three straight declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) added 38.91 points, or 0.2 percent, to 17,137.36, ending the week less than one point from an all-time high.

Canadian numbers were even worse:

Employment in Canada’s private sector is at a standstill.

While monthly employment readings have seesawed through the year, one trend is clear: Private companies are in no mood to hire, having shed a record 111,800 jobs in August, according to Statistics Canada.

Month-to-month measures have been volatile but the longer-term view shows full-time and private positions have barely budged in a year, while eight in 10 new jobs have been part-time.
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Private-sector hiring tumbled as the manufacturing, trade and professional services sectors cut jobs. The share of people working in manufacturing has ebbed to a record low this summer. The public sector added 14,000 jobs and self employment rose by 86,900, a record gain.

The outsized readings on private-sector losses and self-employment gains raised eyebrows. Bank of Nova Scotia economists Derek Holt and Dov Zigler called the numbers “very fishy” and advised clients to be “very careful” in drawing conclusions from the monthly data.

Skepticism over the data comes after the agency was forced to correct its July jobs numbers. That month saw a gain of 41,700 positions rather than the 200 jobs it had originally reported, a mistake attributed to an incomplete understanding of changes that occurred in the redesign of its survey.

The broader picture shows employment levels in the private sector “has been relatively flat since the fall of 2013,” Statistics Canada observed.

It was a good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 15bp, FixedResets up 11bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 3bp. Volatility was good, dominated by winning FixedResets. Volume was low.

Interesting article in the Globe about global real estate flows:

In June, Citigroup Inc. paid a record HK$5.4-billion ($697-million) for a Hong Kong office tower that will bring most of its 5,000 employees under one roof. Canada’s Manulife Financial Corp. last year paid HK$4.5-billion for a similar-size tower and development in the city’s Kowloon district.

“Canadians are buying everywhere,” said Ross Moore, director of Canada research at CBRE Group Inc., the biggest commercial broker. “They are shopping the world. What’s happened in the last five to 10 years is the big pension funds pretty well own everything of quality in Canada. They love real estate and have all this money coming in and they have to put it somewhere.”

Toronto-based Brookfield Asset Management Inc. has started investing in European warehouse properties and Indian offices after accumulating the biggest holdings of office buildings in both the U.S. and Canada. The real estate unit of Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan has been investing in Brazil as well as the U.K. and Australia. Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board has bought London residential, retail and office properties.

Europe’s trying everything to stimulate:

The European Central Bank cut interest rates and will start buying assets, in a bid to boost the flow of funding for the euro-area economy while stopping short of broad-based quantitative easing.

ECB President Mario Draghi’s plan to buy asset-backed securities and covered bonds pushed the euro below $1.30 for the first time since July 2013 as he said the inflation outlook had worsened. Germany’s Jens Weidmann opposed the rate cut and ABS plan, according to two officials.

The ECB “will purchase a broad portfolio of simple and transparent securities,” Draghi said at a press conference in Frankfurt today. “Some of our council were in favor of doing more than presented.”
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The European Commission is considering allowing banks to hold a wider range of asset-backed securities to meet liquidity requirements than foreseen by global regulators, according to an EU document obtained by Bloomberg News. Banks will be allowed to use securitizations backed by assets from car loans to small business and consumer debt under the EU rule, whereas the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision sought to limit securitizations to those backed by residential mortgage debt.

… and contagion is important:

Draghi’s stimulus is helping keep a lid on borrowing costs in the U.S. even as the growth outlook continues to improve. The nation’s joblessness fell to 6.2 percent in July from 6.7 percent in December, yet yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note have also tumbled from 3.03 percent at year-end. The securities yielded 2.45 percent at 10:59 a.m. in New York, up 0.05 percentage point from yesterday.

Instead of girding for rising interest rates as the economy strengthens, investors have been pouring cash into long-dated U.S. debt.

They’ve funneled $3.9 billion into BlackRock Inc. (BLK)’s iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund this year, the most among U.S. fixed income ETFs, Bloomberg data show. The fourth-biggest winner has been the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), with $1.7 billion of deposits.

Analysts keep cutting their predictions for how much borrowing costs will rise, too. They now forecast a 2.89 percent yield on the 10-year Treasury note at year-end, down from a July call of 3 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Today’s mail brought me a wonderful book, Contingent Convertibles [CoCos], by George M. von Furstenberg. I’ve only skimmed it, but it does include a phrase that most of us will have hoped was obvious:

A [Conversion Price] should be part of the cocos covenant so that the number of common shares issued at conversion is known already from the time the cocos are initially offered.

Sadly, that ain’t how they’ll work in Canada.

It was a poor day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 14bp, FixedResets down 10bp and DeemedRetractibles off 6bp. Volatility was high. Volume was low.

The CPPIB is spending more on outside managers:

Five years ago, the investment arm of the Canada Pension Plan had total costs of $665-million, according to a new report from the Fraser Institute. In the CPPIB’s most recent fiscal year, overhead had ballooned to $1.4-billion.

To be sure, part of that increase reflected the swelling size of the fund, which is constantly taking in new money, thanks to pension contributions from millions of Canadian workers. But even against the backdrop of its surging assets, the CPPIB is not showing any tendency to rein in its spending. Its costs amounted to 0.58 per cent of its assets back in 2008-09; in the most recent fiscal year, they stood at 0.84 per cent.
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The fund likes to focus attention on its relatively modest operating expenses. A more realistic accounting, though, has to encompass other costs, such as hiring external investment managers and the expenses involved in actually implementing the fund’s strategies.

Those costs are now nearly twice as large as the fund’s operating expenses, according to the report’s authors, Philip Cross and Joel Emes. Much of the additional outlay reflects payments to external money managers, which have soared from $25-million six years ago to $782-million last year.

The Fraser Institute’s news release links to the study, titled Accounting for the True Cost of the Canada Pension Plan, which notes that the CPPIB’s assets under management are about $183-billion.

The CPPIB is making a horrible mistake in going to outside managers. Assiduous Readers will remember that I believe that it is possible to outperform benchmarks – any benchmark – over the long term, and that the reason for this is that most investors – including most professionals – are idiots. At least when it comes to actual investing, they’re idiots. They’re really, really good at sales!

In order to outperform, you need a dedicated staff and this staff has to be completely focussed on the nitty-gritty of investment analysis. The organization must have no sales exposure at all if it is to be successfule – which means that the organization must run its own money and only its own money. This necessarily means that consistent outperformance is restricted to organizations with huge amounts of assets, but that’s life. The moronic proposals for an Ontario superfund (discussed on April 21, 2009 and elsewhere on PrefBlog) will lead to a change of culture in the superfund management, from a culture of returns, returns returns! to a culture of clients, clients clients! which are polar opposites with respect to the personalities of the individuals concerned and with respect to the effect on investment performance.

CalPERS is run on the hub and spoke model. Its performance is a disaster. The UofT retirement fund is hub-and-spoke – and it’s a disaster. When you run an investment organization according this model, you are paying for salesmen to have lunch with each other. We are going to pay dearly for the CPPIB’s increasing appetite for good investment stories.

CU Inc. issued long paper today:

CU Inc. announced today that it will issue $1,000,000,000 of 4.085% Debentures maturing on September 2, 2044, at a price of $100.00 to yield 4.085%. This issue was sold by RBC Dominion Securities Inc., BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., TD Securities Inc., Scotia Capital Inc. and CIBC World Markets Inc. Proceeds from the issue will be used to finance capital expenditures, to repay existing indebtedness, and for other general corporate purposes of ATCO Electric Ltd. and ATCO Gas and Pipelines Ltd.

The company has a PerpetualDiscount outstanding, CIU.PR.A, which has a 4.60% coupon and is bid at 22.96 to yield 5.02%. Call it a round 5% for luck. This implies the interest-equivalent yield for CIU.PR.A is 6.5%, which, given the number on the bond issue, imply a Seniority Spread for this company of about 240bp.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 1bp, FixedResets off 7bp and DeemedRetractibles up 6bp. Volatility was average. Volume was a little low, although Fortis issues got a bit of boost from the new issue announcement.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.13%, equivalent to 6.67% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield a little under 4.2%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 250bp, unchanged from the figure reported August 27.