Whoosh! The Weekend Bank Rescues had an effect all right! I think Assiduous Reader Annette has it right: Banksgiving Moneyday.
Accrued Interest provides some interesting colour on financial spreads while Across the Curve counsels caution on Corporates.
Readers of a helpful bent are encourage to air their view on BAM credit quality, where some concern is being expressed regarding the recent hammering of BAM’s issues. Like it? Don’t like it? Feel free to call me stupid, as long as you explain why.
The Performers table is limited to those with an absolute change of 5% or greater, bid/bid. Sorry, folks …
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30. The Fixed-Reset index was added effective 2008-9-5 at that day’s closing value of 1,119.4 for the Fixed-Floater index. |
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Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) | Mean YTW | Mean Average Trading Value | Mean Mod Dur (YTW) | Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
Ratchet | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | N/A | N/A |
Fixed-Floater | 5.38% | 5.63% | 77,834 | 14.71 | 6 | +1.9115% | 959.7 |
Floater | 6.32% | 6.38% | 48,537 | 13.36 | 2 | -5.4458% | 573.1 |
Op. Retract | 5.40% | 6.28% | 127,931 | 3.84 | 14 | +1.8597% | 978.3 |
Split-Share | 6.30% | 10.55% | 59,090 | 4.01 | 12 | +11.2845% | 922.7 |
Interest Bearing | 7.37% | 11.24% | 48,813 | 3.48 | 3 | +8.1449% | 944.3 |
Perpetual-Premium | 6.65% | 6.71% | 52,538 | 12.89 | 1 | +2.0824% | 933.8 |
Perpetual-Discount | 6.76% | 6.83% | 177,078 | 12.81 | 70 | +4.1447% | 798.6 |
Fixed-Reset | 5.24% | 5.07% | 989,979 | 15.27 | 10 | +1.9108% | 1,093.3 |
Major Price Changes | |||
Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
BNA.PR.B | SplitShare | -10.4682 | Asset coverage of 3.2+:1 as of August 31 according to the company. Coverage now of 2.4+:1 based on BAM.A at 25.16 and 2.4 BAM.A held per preferred. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 11.66% based on a bid of 17.02 and a hardMaturity 2016-3-25 at 25.00. Compare with BNA.PR.A (16.67% to 2010-9-30) and BNA.PR.C (12.61% to 2019-1-10). Closing quote 17.02-20.99, 7×4. Day’s range of 20.00-20.04. |
BAM.PR.B | Floater | -7.7476% | |
BNA.PR.A | SplitShare | +5.0000% | See BNA.PR.B, above |
LFE.PR.A | SplitShare | +5.0617% | Asset coverage of just under 2.2:1 as of September 30, according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 9.85% based on a bid of 8.51 and a hardMaturity 2012-12-1 at 10.00. |
FTN.PR.A | SplitShare | +5.3218% | Asset coverage of 2.2+:1 as of September 30 according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.15% based on a bid of 8.51 and a hardMaturity 2015-12-1 at 10.00 |
BMO.PR.J | PerpetualDiscount | +5.4545% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.59% based on a bid of 17.40 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 17.40-75, 25×34; day’s range 17.01-98. |
CM.PR.E | PerpetualDiscount | +5.6111% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.41% based on a bid of 19.01 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 19.01-20, 2×25. Day’s range 19.20-50 |
BCE.PR.I | FixFloat | +5.7214% | |
FIG.PR.A | InterestBearing | +6.2323% | Asset coverage of 1.4+:1 as of October 9, according to Faircourt. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 12.27% (interest + capital gains) based on a bid of 7.50 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-31 at 10.00. Closing quote 7.50-99, 10×2. Day’s range, 7.30-00. |
BNS.PR.Q | FixedReset | +6.6193% | |
ELF.PR.F | PerpetualDiscount | +6.7333% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.35% based on a bid of 16.01 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 16.01-50, 2×6. Day’s range 16.45-99 |
PWF.PR.I | PerpetualDiscount | +6.7928% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.83% based on a bid of 22.01 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 22.01-00, 5×9. Day’s range 22.40-00. |
CU.PR.A | PerpetualDiscount | +6.8075% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.47% based on a bid of 22.75 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 22.75-50, 5×2. Day’s range 21.63-23.75 |
SLF.PR.D | PerpetualDiscount | +6.8556% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.94% based on a bid of 16.21 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 16.21-69, 1×2. Day’s range 16.25-68. |
CU.PR.B | PerpetualDiscount | +6.8577% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.70% based on a bid of 22.75 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 22.75-50, 2×7. Day’s range 23.00-24.00 |
FBS.PR.B | SplitShare | +6.9330% | Asset coverage of 1.3:1 as of October 9 according to TD Securities. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.22% based on a bid of 9.10 and a hardMaturity 2011-12-15 at 10.00. Closing quote 9.10-9.39, 6×20; day’s range 9.10-50 |
BNA.PR.C | SplitShare | +7.2222% | See BNA.PR.B, above |
BNS.PR.O | PerpetualDiscount | +7.2647% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.39% based on a bid of 22.00 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 22.00-50, 1×12. Day’s range 22.05-23.60. |
BAM.PR.N | PerpetualDiscount | +7.3409% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 9.16% based on a bid of 13.16 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 13.16-68, 6×6. Day’s range 13.22-90. |
RY.PR.H | PerpetualDiscount | +7.4074% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.61% based on a bid of 21.75 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 21.75-22.80, 30×10. Day’s range 21.79-23.00 |
TD.PR.P | PerpetualDiscount | +7.4463% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.13% based on a bid of 21.50 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 21.50-75, 8×1. Day’s range 21.50-60 |
BNS.PR.L | PerpetualDiscount | +7.5224% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.27% based on a bid of 18.01 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 18.01-25, 3×8. Day’s range 17.44-01 |
CM.PR.J | PerpetualDiscount | +7.5642% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.30% based on a bid of 15.00 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 15.50-80, 10×6. Day’s range 15.34-75. |
TD.PR.Q | PerpetualDiscount | +7.6998% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.36% based on a bid of 22.10 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 22.10-88, 10×4. Day’s range 22.20-90 |
ELF.PR.G | PerpetualDiscount | +7.9286% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.93% based on a bid of 15.11 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 15.11-87, 1×2. Day’s range 14.99-00/ |
NA.PR.N | FixedReset | +8.0660% | |
CM.PR.H | PerpetualDiscount | +8.1171% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.43% based on a bid of 16.25 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 16.25-44, 6×5. Day’s range 16.25-90. |
HSB.PR.C | PerpetualDiscount | +8.5681% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.97% based on a bid of 18.50 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 18.50-32, 2×12. Day’s range 17.76-77 |
NA.PR.M | PerpetualDiscount | +8.5930% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.52% based on a bid of 23.00 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 23.00-22. Day’s range 22.75-20 |
CM.PR.I | PerpetualDiscount | +8.7333% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.25% based on a bid of 16.31 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 16.31-74, 5×2. Day’s range 15.80-17.00 |
W.PR.H | PerpetualDiscount | +8.8183% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.49% based on a bid of 18.51 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 18.51-20.21, 1×6. Day’s range 17.71-19.00 |
DFN.PR.A | SplitShare | +8.8391% | Asset coverage of just under 2.2:1 as of September 30, according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 9.15% based on a bid of 8.25 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-1 at 10.00. Closinq quote of 8.25-97, 10×7. Day’s range of 8.15-50 |
POW.PR.B | PerpetualDiscount | +9.7748% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.74% based on a bid of 19.99 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 19.99-00 (tight!) 10×4. Day’s range 18.75-20.60 (loose!) |
CM.PR.P | PerpetualDiscount | +9.7765% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.04% based on a bid of 19.65 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 19.65-97 6×5. Day’s range 18.70-20.00 |
GWO.PR.H | PerpetualDiscount | +10.3264% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.41% based on a bid of 16.56 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 16.56-99 7×6 Day’s range 16.50-17.75 |
BAM.PR.J | OpRet | +15.9886% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 11.74% based on a bid of 16.25 and a softMaturity 2018-3-30 at 25.00. Compare with BAM.PR.H (10.87% to 2013-6-30), BAM.PR.I (11.95% to 2013-12-30) and BAM.PR.O (11.54% to 2013-12-30); and with the perpetuals at 8.76% and 9.16%. Closing quote of 16.25-84, 1×3. Day’s range of 16.25-00. |
BSD.PR.A | InterestBearing | +16.5414% | Asset coverage of just under 1.3:1 as of October 3, according to Brookfield Funds. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 11.18% (interest + cap gain) based on a bid of 7.75 and a hardMaturity 2015-3-31 at 10.00. Closing quote 7.75-98, 10×4. Day’s range 7.99-00. |
FFN.PR.A | SplitShare | +16.8116% | Asset coverage of 1.8+:1 as of September 30, according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 9.63% based on a bid of 8.06 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-1 at 10.00. Closing quote of 8.06-24, 1×6. Day’s range of 7.61-50. |
BAM.PR.M | PerpetualDiscount | +17.8235% | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.76% based on a bid of 13.75 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 13.75-00 Day’s range 13.50-00 |
WFS.PR.A | SplitShare | +19.0828% | Asset coverage of 1.5+:1 as of September 30 according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 14.39% based on a bid of 8.05 and a hardMaturity 2011-6-30 at 10.00. Closing quote, 8.05-74, 25×13. Day’s range, 8.06-49. |
LBS.PR.A | SplitShare | +23.2394% | Asset coverage of just under 2.0:1 as of October 2, according to Brompton Group. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.35% based on a bid of 8.75 and a hardMaturity 2013-11-29 at 10.00. Closing quote 8.75-87, 38×1. Day’s range, 8.75-99. |
SBC.PR.A | SplitShare | +39.5462% | Asset coverage of just under 1.7:1 as of October 9 according to Brompton Group. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 9.45% based on a bid of 8.61 and a hardMaturity 2012-11-30. Closing quote 8.61-9.24 (?), 10x??? (contradictory data). Day’s range 8.10-60. |
Volume Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Volume | Notes |
BNS.PR.L | PerpetualDiscount | 115,940 | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.27% based on a bid of 18.01 and a limitMaturity. |
BNS.PR.K | PerpetualDiscount | 62,070 | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.21% based on a bid of 19.41 and a limitMaturity. |
TD.PR.O | PerpetualDiscount | 60,100 | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.16% based on a bid of 19.76 and a limitMaturity. |
CM.PR.A | OpRet | 46,300 | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.50% based on a bid of 24.85 and a softMaturity 2011-7-30 at 25.00. |
TD.PR.N | OpRet | 29,380 | Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.14% based on a bid of 24.36 and a softMaturity 2014-1-30. |
There were twenty-seven other index-included $25-pv-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.
Weekend Bank Rescues
October 13th, 2008Assiduous Reader louis made a very good suggestion in the comments to October 10 that is worthy of being highlighted – particularly in the light of the extraordinary policy actions taken by government to shore up teetering confidence.
Well, I’ll give it a whirl! It is odd, you know, but I don’t consider myself a macro-guy at all; by which I mean somebody who studies the economy with a greater or lesser degree of competence and takes market action based on that analysis. In fact, I don’t think the macro-economic approach works at all in the long term – see, for example, my post on market timing, for instance.
My specialty is on the micro side … I simply weigh bundles of cash flows and try to buy the cheapest bundles. It makes for extremely boring justifications of why I have taken such-and-such market action, but it has, historically, resulted in outperformance against the benchmarks.
Agreed. We have nothing to fear but fear itself! What is happening is that fear of asymmetrical information has taken over the valuation process … by which I mean that many investors, confronted with a drop in the price of stock they hold, are not shrugging it off or using it as an opportunity to buy more, they are taking it as evidence that somebody knows more than they do and are selling.
A bank might have to write off, say $1 per share due to the mark-to-market regime … and this is resulting in a $2 decline in their stock price.
It used to be that virtually all investment was done through banks. Then, with the rise of mutual funds, reduction of stock commissions and the continued rise of the middle class, “disintermediation” became more normal and the banks started getting cut out of the loop (and the profits).
In bad times, people tend to retreat back to their banks – their good solid banks, that have a branch in the neighborhood and have their names on entertainment facilities – and reintermediation becomes normal. This has been discussed in the post Banks Advantage in Hedging Liquidity Risk.
I agree. In fact, as I suggested in Synthetic Extended Deposit Insurance: The Critique, deposit insurance should be keyed to a large fraction of median household income. That will be enough that long lines of small depositors will not form when a bank runs into trouble, as occurred in the Northern Rock episode (I believe that European style minimalist deposit insurance is expecting too much financial analysis from the non-specialist public).
On the other hand, people seem to demand the right never to lose money on short term investments – particularly the ones in which they invested because they paid so much better than boring old bank deposits. Frankly, I was amazed at the enormous effect that the buck-breaking at Reserve Primary Fund (discussed on September 19) had on the commercial paper market.
You can’t educate people. It seems to me, now more than ever, that branded money market funds must attract a capital charge on the banks. This will, naturally, increase the costs of putting together such funds – since the bank will have to hold as much capital against the MMFs as against any other deposit – but so be it. If the public wants guaranteed investments, insists on guaranteed investments, and will destroy the financial system if they don’t get guaranteed investments … well, then, they can have guaranteed investments. But they have to pay.
I’m not convinced it’s so much nervousness about lending to each other as it is a desire to hoard cash. The banks have huge committments on undrawn credit lines – just credit cards is enormous, never mind HELOCs and billion-dollar lines to corporations – and they have to ensure that the cash is there should the lines be drawn.
The current experience might mean that undrawn lines should attract a higher capital charge than they do now. This had enormous repercussions in the ABCP market; for various historical reasons, there was a high capital charge against US & International ABCP contingency lines, but no capital charge for a greatly inferior line in Canada. The result was that when the market seized up, money was available for the US/International SIVs, but not for Canadian.
Another illustration was the informal liquidity support given to the auction rate market in the States. Since there was no formal arrangement and no capital charge, there was no money. And so that market siezed up.
The question of liquidity guarantees will keep the Basel Committee busy for some years to come!
Part of the problem with the TED spread is that the discount window is wide-open and cheap. But I agree that the enormous TED spread is symptiomatic of huge problems in the banking system.
Hmm … to a certain extent, this is what’s been happening for a while, sort of. Bank A has surplus cash; Bank B needs to borrow. However, instead of a direct deal, what is happening (to a certain extent) is that Bank B is borrowing from the Fed through one of its programmes – or the discount window – the Fed is neutralizing the cash injection via sale of T-Bills, and Bank A is buying the T-Bills.
However, I note that on the weekend:
The Guardian reports:
There is more information available directly from the Bank of England and from HM Treasury:
Back to Assiduous Reader louis:
Bloomberg reports that LIBOR has fallen:
… and the market’s on wheels:
Tomorrow should be a most interesting day in the Canadian markets!
Assiduous Reader Annette asks:
Only if the fee is punitive, says I, and only if the guaranteed bank is well capitalized. For now, I still like the idea of capital injections via senior preferred shares. But I don’t think we’re yet at the stage where interbank lending needs to be guaranteed in the US, particularly with all the reintermediation being done by the Fed via the discount window and the TAF.
I’m worried about the moral hazard issues. I want the common shareholders – and maybe even the preferred shareholders and sub-debt holders – to take a permanent nasty hit.
Update: Bloomberg puts the total European package at USD 1.8-trillion:
The WSJ is speculating that there may be similar moves by Treasury:
Posted in Reader Initiated Comments | 13 Comments »