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So, there was some good inflation news today:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annual rate of 1.6 per cent in September, down from a 2-per-cent pace in August, Statistics Canada said in a report. Financial analysts were expecting a slowdown to 1.8 per cent. This was the weakest inflation rate since February, 2021.

The results were largely driven by a decline in gasoline prices, which fell 7.1 per cent in September from August. Excluding gas, the CPI rose 2.2 per cent in September, year over year, matching the increase in August.
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Statscan reported on Friday that employment rose by nearly 47,000 in September – nearly double analyst estimates – and the unemployment rate ticked lower for the first time since January.
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U.S. inflation continued to tick lower last month, but not as quickly as Wall Street expected, decreasing the odds of another oversized interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November.

Annual consumer price index inflation in the United States fell to 2.4 per cent in September from 2.5 per cent the month before, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week. However, this drop was smaller than analysts were forecasting, and measures of core inflation accelerated slightly.
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Implied probabilities in overnight swaps markets, which capture market bets on where monetary policy is heading, are now giving about 67 per cent odds of a 50-basis point cut on Oct. 23. A smaller, 25-basis-point cut is now being given odds of 33 per cent. Prior to this morning’s inflation data, markets were putting 50/50 odds of whether it will be a larger or smaller cut.

Markets are now fully pricing in a total of 75 basis points worth of monetary easing by the end of this year.

The Canadian dollar immediately lost ground after the 8:30 a.m. data release, falling just over one-10th of a U.S. cent to about 72.30 US cents. The Canadian two-year bond yield fell five basis points on the data, to 3.018 per cent.

This is in interesting juxtaposition to the US Survey of Consumer Expectations:

Median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0 percent at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7 percent from 2.5 percent at the three-year horizon, and rose to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent at the five-year horizon, according to the September Survey of Consumer Expectations. In the labor market, the mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next twelve months increased to 20.4 percent from 19.1 percent, and the mean perceived probability of finding a job in the event of job loss increased to 52.7 percent from 52.3 percent in August. Year-ahead household income and spending growth expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively. Perceptions and expectations of credit access improved compared to a year ago; however, the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased to 14.2 percent from 13.6 percent in August, the highest reading of the series since April 2020.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, October 15th, 2024 at 8:12 pm and is filed under Market Action. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.