Market Action

January 24, 2007

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.02% 4.05% 28,553 17.35 1 -0.2000% 1,033.8
Fixed-Floater 4.75% 3.10% 73,316 8.39 7 -0.0713% 1,045.8
Floater 4.55% -21.75% 60,753 4.17 4 0.2060% 1,046.8
Op. Retract 4.68% 2.22% 79,864 2.00 17 0.0268% 1,031.2
Split-Share 5.05% -0.17% 380,567 2.83 11 +0.0457% 1,045.8
Interest Bearing 6.71% 5.96% 73,335 4.49 6 -0.0522% 1,035.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.01% 3.75% 268,696 5.54 56 +0.0511% 1,052.5
Perpetual-Discount 4.50% 4.52% 1,460,388 16.36 5 +0.0966% 1,057.2
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
There were no index-included issues with major price moves today.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BNS.PR.L PerpetualPremium 387,831 New issued settled today. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.48% based on a bid of $25.07 and a call 2016-5-27 at $25.00.
BMO.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 85,975 Recent new issue. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.52% based on a bid of $24.97 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.X OpRet 67,482 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 2.44% based on a bid of $27.60 and a call 2009-10-30 at $26.00. Buyers are obviously hoping for the softMaturity at $25.00, 2013-9-29, which yields 3.14% pre-tax (still no great shakes compared to normal bonds, bond-equivalent is only 4.40% at the Ontario Equivalency Factor of 1.4x), but why? Great-West has already demonstrated its willingness to pay market prices to retire this issue.
RY.PR.E PerpetualDiscount 66,162 Recent new issue. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.51% based on a bid of $25.00 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.W PerpetualPremium 59,085 Global crossed 26,800 for cash at $26.66, then crossed the same number for regular settlement at $26.35. Mr. Calculator says that’s a difference of $0.31, and RBC says it went exDividend 1/23, for $0.30625. I’m glad all that’s cleared up! Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.12% based on a bid of $26.14 and a call 2014-3-26 at $25.00. I say it’s appallingly expensive, that’s what I say.

There were eleven other “$25 p.v. equivalent” index-included issues with over 10,000 shares traded today.

Data Changes

BNS.PR.L Gets a Solid Reception

BNS.PR.L commenced trading today, after having been announced January 8. Scotia announced today that the underwriters’ over-allotment privilege had been exercised to the tune of 1.8 million shares, bringing the total size of the issue to 13.8 million shares valued at $345-million.

The issue traded a healthy 387,831 shares in a range of 24.98-08. The closing quotation was 25.07-09, 67×50.

There may be a little more value left in this issue, as HIMIPref™ calculates a curvePrice of $25.26:

Curve Price Comparison
After-tax Curve
Component BNS.PR.L BNS.PR.K
Price due to base-rate 23.19  24.07
Price due to short-term 0.04  0.04
Price due to long-term 0.57  0.58
Price due to Liquidity 1.50  0.67
Price due to error -0.03  -0.01
Curve Price 25.26 25.34
Closing Quote 25.07-09  25.91-97
Annual Dividend 1.125 1.200
Yield-to-Worst (Pre-Tax)  4.48%  4.24%
Yield-to-Worst (Post-Tax) 3.56%  3.37%
YTW Call-Date 2016-05-27  2014-05-28

The securityCode for this issue is A41009, replacing the preIssue code of P75004. A reorgDataEntry has been created to reflect this change.

The issue has been added to the “PerpetualPremium” Index as of 1/24.

HIMI Preferred Indices

HIMI Preferred Indices : May, 1997

All indices were assigned a value of 1000.0 as of December 31, 1993.

HIMI Index Values 1997-05-30
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,482.8 0 0 0 0 0 0
FixedFloater 1,465.5 5 2.00 3.83% 17.1 513M 5.20%
Floater 1,396.3 7 1.70 3.53% 17.8 70M 3.83%
OpRet 1,287.2 28 1.21 4.46% 4.5 97M 6.31%
SplitShare 1,283.2 1 2.00 5.33% 5.3 135M 5.64%
Interest-Bearing 1,287.2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Perpetual-Premium 1,198.6 4 1.00 3.30% 2.2 132M 7.98%
Perpetual-Discount 1,144.3 0 0 0 0 0 0

Index Constitution, 1997-05-30, Pre-Rebalancing

Index Constitution, 1997-05-30, Post-Rebalancing

Publications

Research : Interest-Bearing Preferreds

Preferred securities are issues that are similar to preferred shares in most respects – except that they pay interest rather than dividends. While conditions for issuance of these shares are no longer as favourable as during their vogue, a number of issues still exist and may be of interest to RRSP investors. I’ve written an introduction to this type of preferred share:

Look for the Research Link!

The current portfolio evaluation for the draft Interest-Bearing index is here.

Market Action

January 23, 2007

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.02% 4.04% 26,599 17.36 1 +0.6036% 1,035.8
Fixed-Floater 4.75% 2.98% 74,615 10.15 7 +0.1118% 1,047.6
Floater 4.56% -20.79% 62,140 8.22 4 -0.0292% 1,044.7
Op. Retract 4.68% 2.24% 79,726 2.01 17 -0.0402% 1,030.9
Split-Share 5.05% 0.82% 382,155 2.83 11 +0.0109% 1,045.3
Interest Bearing 6.70% 5.81% 74,426 2.63 6 +0.0693% 1,035.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.02% 3.78% 230,211 5.40 55 +0.0156% 1,051.9
Perpetual-Discount 4.50% 4.53% 1,476,495 16.35 5 +0.0081% 1,056.2
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
CM.PR.H PerpetualPremium +1.0160% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.26%, based on a bid of $25.85 and a call 2014-4-29 at $25.00.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
RY.PR.E PerpetualDiscount 122,710 Recent new issue. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.52% based on a bid of $24.97 and a limitMaturity
NA.PR.K PerpetualPremium 106,900 Desjardins crossed 99,900 at $27.50 … who was the buyer? The pre-tax bid-YTW on this issue is now 1.61% based on a bid of $27.35 and a call 2008-06-14 at $26.00. It will have yielded 3.86% if it makes it to the 2012-6-14 call at $25.00 … but is the risk all that necessary? Look at the other issues, just on this high-volume summary! The issue pays $1.4625 p.a., with a declining call premium of $0.25 p.a.
BMO.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 81,640 Recent new issue. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.52% based on a bid of $24.96 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.I PerpetualPremium 64,372 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.53% based on a bid of $25.35 and a call 2016-3-1 at $25.00.
GWO.PR.H PerpetualPremium 53,040 TD crossed 50,000 at $25.92. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.38% based on a bid of $25.90 and call 2014-10-30 at $25.00

There were twenty-four other “$25 p.v. equivalent” index-included issues with over 10,000 shares traded today.

HIMI Preferred Indices

HIMI Preferred Indices : April 1997

All indices were assigned a value of 1000.0 as of December 31, 1993.

HIMI Index Values 1997-04-30
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,480.1 0 0 0 0 0 0
FixedFloater 1,438.8 4 2.00 3.61% 17.1 418M 5.22%
Floater 1,393.7 7 1.71 3.54% 17.9 77M 3.83%
OpRet 1,269.0 32 1.31 4.99% 4.5 97M 6.50%
SplitShare 1,262.2 1 2.00 5.72% 5.4 179M 5.73%
Interest-Bearing 1,269.0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Perpetual-Premium 1,192.0 4 1.00 3.59% 2.2 116M 7.98%
Perpetual-Discount 1,138.0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Index Constitution, 1997-04-30, Pre-Rebalancing

Index Constitution, 1997-04-30, Post-Rebalancing

Issue Comments

BC.PR.A, BC.PR.B, BC.PR.C, BC.PR.D, BC.PR.E to be Exchanged for BCE Prefs

It has been announced that the Bell Canada / BCE Inc. Preferred Share Exchange Offer has been approved:

The face of telecom company BCE Inc. took another step towards being wiped from the Canadian business landscape after Bell Canada shareholders approved exchanging its preferred stock for BCE shares and accepting a one-time payout of 20 cents per share.

Shareholders representing 61.5 per cent of Bell Canada preferred stock voted 95.26 per cent in favour of the moves.
A couple of investors who attended the meeting voted against the motion, but later refused to explain their decision or reveal whom they represented.

According to the DBRS report dated December 12:

DBRS notes that the Company’s announcement to simplify its corporate structure will not result in DBRS consolidating the Bell Canada and BCE Inc. ratings, as the holding company and operating company structure will still exist from a legal perspective. Thus, DBRS will maintain a one notch rating differential reflecting structural subordination. Although DBRS does acknowledge that debt levels at BCE Inc. have decreased substantially, BCE Inc. will continue to be dependent on Bell Canada for the financing of its interest, preferred and common dividends on a go forward basis. Although the level of dividends from Bell Canada that will need to be up streamed to BCE Inc. are expected to decrease, DBRS believes that this will be somewhat offset by Bell Canada absorbing the BCE Inc. corporate expenses.

Finally, DBRS notes that the Company has indicated that under a plan of arrangement, holders of Bell Canada preferred shares will be asked to exchange their shares for BCE Inc. preferred shares with the same series rights. The arrangement must be approved by the holders of common and preferred shares of Bell Canada, each voting as a separate class, at a special meeting to be held on January 23, 2007. As previously stated, BCE Inc.’s preferred shares are rated one notch lower, reflecting structural subordination.

So: the Bell Canada pref holders have given up a notch of credit rating for a one-time payment and no extra dividend. Let’s hope it works out well for them.

Documentation

Documentation : Analytical Universe Selection

Drew’s comments and queries have, as always, pointed out some deficiencies and, as is not quite so often the case, have led to an improvement in my documentation.

There is a new page in the User Manual: Analytical Universe, that basically restates my responses to the original query. Please – don’t be shy about asking questions and telling me that something’s not clear! I’ll always listen – it’s getting me to do anything useful that’s hard!

Market Action

January 22, 2007

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.05% 4.07% 24,908 17.30 1 0.0000% 1,029.6
Fixed-Floater 4.75% 3.06% 74,733 6.58 7 0.0957% 1,046.4
Floater 4.56% -20.97% 62,305 4.16 4 +0.1081% 1,045.0
Op. Retract 4.68% 2.24% 78,176 2.04 17 -0.0106% 1,031.3
Split-Share 5.05% 0.26% 387,796 2.84 11 -0.0147% 1,045.2
Interest Bearing 6.71% 5.88% 74,199 2.63 6 -0.0617% 1,034.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.02% 3.71% 230,448 5.35 55 -0.0086% 1,051.8
Perpetual-Discount 4.50% 4.52% 1,480,658 16.35 5 +0.0806% 1,056.1
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
There were no index-included issues with major price changes (bid/bid) today.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
RY.PR.E PerpetualDiscount 185,599 Recent new issue. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.52% based on a bid of $24.94 and a limitMaturity
MFC.PR.C PerpetualPremium 177,475 RBC crossed 50,000 at 24.99; Scotia crossed 11,500 at the same price. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.55% based on a bid of $25.01 and optionCertainty 2037-1-22 at $25.00.
BMO.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 101,300 Recent new issue. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.52% based on a bid of $24.95 and a limitMaturity.
FBS.PR.B SplitShare 255,990 Recent new issue. CIBC crossed 217,000 at $10.30. I don’t understand why anybody would buy it at such a price – the pre-tax bid-YTW is 2.16% based on a bid of $10.30 and a call 2008-1-14 at $10.00. Buyers must be looking at the yield of 4.20% based on a hardMaturity 2011-12-15 at $10.00, but I consider the chance of a large proportion of extant shares surviving that long to be fairly slim.
RY.PR.A PerpetualPremium 74,325 Scotia crossed 17,300 at 25.00. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.51% based on a bid of $24.99 and a limitMaturity.

There were twelve other “$25 p.v. equivalent” index-included issues with over 10,000 shares traded today.