MAPF Portfolio Composition : October 31, 2007

November 2nd, 2007

There was heavy trading in October.

MAPF Sectoral Analysis 2007-10-31
HIMI Indices Sector Weighting YTW ModDur
Ratchet 0% N/A N/A
FixFloat 0% N/A N/A
Floater 0% N/A N/A
OpRet 0% N/A N/A
SplitShare 19% (+6) 5.51% 4.53 
Interest Rearing 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualPremium 0% (-42) N/A N/A 
PerpetualDiscount 81% (+36) 5.75% 14.33 
Scraps 0% N/A N/A
Cash 0% 0.00% 0.00
Total 100% 5.71% 12.46
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding.
Bracketted figures represent change from September month-end.

The “total” reflects the un-leveraged total portfolio (i.e., cash is included in the portfolio calculations and is deemed to have a duration and yield of 0.00.), which doesn’t make much of a difference this month. MAPF will often have relatively large cash balances, both credit and debit, to facilitate trading. Figures presented in the table have been rounded to the indicated precision.

The shift from PerpetualPremium issues into PerpetualDiscounts was very dramatic, but I must stress that this was not done – and is never done – as a market call on the overall direction of the market. During the month it appeared that there were dramatic undervaluations in specific issues in the PerpetualDiscount sector; in order to buy them, something had to get sold!

It’s always useful to do a post-mortem on trades. The following tables are as accurate as I can make them, but I will stress that the trades are rarely precisely cash neutral. If, for instance, I have bought half the number I want of a particular issue at 21.00 during the day, I will not lift an offer at 21.50 just to complete the buying programme! Maybe there is something else that’s attractive on offer; maybe I’ll just keep the cash exposure overnight and put in another bid the next day. It’s important to avoid being too mechanical when trading in a relatively thin market such as preferred shares.

Anyway, here are the basic trades involving the sale of issues that were “PerpetualPremiums” as of 9/28, as well as I can disentangle them!

Issue 9/28 Trade 10/31
 PWF.PR.I  25.73 25.73+0.375  25.46 
 PIC.PR.A  15.75 15.66  15.25+0.21 
 
Issue 9/28 Trade 10/31
 NA.PR.K 25.30  24.98+0.37  25.03 
 NA.PR.L 22.78  21.44  21.00 
 
Issue 9/28 Trade 10/31
 NA.PR.K 25.30  24.84+0.37  25.03 
 RY.PR.G 21.84  21.15  20.51+0.28125 
 
Issue 9/28 Trade 10/31
POW.PR.C  25.15  24.95  24.93 
 RY.PR.F 21.81  21.09  20.31+0.278125 
 
Issue 9/28 Trade 10/31
 POW.PR.C 25.15  24.54  24.93 
 RY.PR.D 22.20  20.65  20.51 
The upper issue was sold, the lower issue bought. The number added to the trade price of the issue sold is the dividend earned between 9/28 and trade date; the number added to the 10/31 price of the issue bought is the dividend earned between the trade date and 10/31

It should be noted that I am reporting only the trades out of securities held in the  PerpetualPremium sector as of last month end; and at that, there are a few scrappy pieces missing. Full disclosure of all trades is made regularly; the full reports are published on the fund’s main page together with the annual and semi-annual reports.

The above tables make the trend of the portfolio during the month fairly clear:

  • PerpetualDiscounts dived
  • PerpetualPremiums as a group were cushioned from the blow (as readers of Perpetual Hockey Sticks will have expected)
  • The PerpetualPremiums in the portfolio actually outperformed their benchmark during the holding period
  • When the PerpetualDiscounts had reached a large discount relative to the premiums, the trades were made
  • The PerpetualDiscounts kept falling anyway.

A sad story, but one familiar to most value investors: there is usually a lot more “noise” in the marketplace than “signal”, but occasionally some presumed noise can actually represent a trend. And such was the case this time. 

Credit distribution is:

MAPF Credit Analysis 2007-10-31
DBRS Rating Weighting
Pfd-1 39% (+20)
Pfd-1(low) 17% (-19)
Pfd-2(high) 15% (-3)
Pfd-2 13% (+1)
Pfd-2(low) 16% (+1)
Cash 0%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding
Bracketted figures represent change from September month-end

The fund does not set any targets for overall credit quality; trades are executed one by one. Variances in overall credit will be constant as opportunistic trades are executed.
Liquidity Distribution is:

MAPF Liquidity Analysis 2007-10-31
Average Daily Trading Weighting
<$50,000 1% (0)
$50,000 – $100,000 0% (-28)
$100,000 – $200,000 50% (+12)
$200,000 – $300,000 26% (+20)
>$300,000 23% (-4)
Cash 0%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding.
Bracketted figures represent change from September month-end

MAPF is, of course, Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund, a “unit trust” managed by Hymas Investment Management Inc. Further information and links to performance, audited financials and subscription information are available on the fund’s web page. A “unit trust” is like a regular mutual fund, but is sold by offering memorandum rather than prospectus. This is cheaper, but means subscription is restricted to “accredited investors” (as defined by the Ontario Securities Commission) and those who subscribe for $150,000+. Fund past performances are not a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in MAPF or any other fund.

I’m very happy with the portfolio as it now stands. Credit quality is very high, as is liquidity, but yields are well in excess of benchmarks anyway. The positions should do very well as the situation normalizes.

A discussion of October’s performance will be posted prior to November 5.

November 1, 2007

November 1st, 2007

US ABCP outstanding declined another $9-billion (slightly more than 1% of the total) in the last week of October, in a continued indication that the unwinding process is proceeding in at least a somewhat orderly fashion. To me, the highlight for the four weeks ending October 31 is that domestic non-financial CP outstanding is down by $12.9-billion while domestic financial CP outstanding is up $52.6-billion; for the month, ABCP outstanding is down $31.5-billion. These numbers suggest – and only suggest, since I haven’t dug very deeply into these numbers! – that re-intermediation is happening big-time in the States, with non-Bank issuers being gradually shut-out or priced out of the market – which is in line with theory.

Naked Capitalism today continued its search for nefarious intent regarding the Super-Conduit. There is little new information. The thing I don’t like about such conspiracy theories is that they depend on people being stupid – or, at the very least, the ringleaders of the plot assuming that investors are stupid. I’m not about to defend the 100% accuracy and rational judgement of the market place (hah!) but I’m not going to assume stupidity until I’ve looked at everything else. And, as I’ve stated many times before, it makes sense if it’s a vulture fund.

Otherwise, you’re asking me to believe that these major banks are going to provide backstop liquidity for a grossly undercapitalized SIV. Or that two major banks are going to help bail out a competitor out of the kindness of their hearts. Or that three major banks have mutual funds in danger of breaking the buck and are willing to risk their existence to avoid it. I won’t say that any of these hypotheses is impossible … but I want something more than “Big Capital is Evil” before I take them seriously.

Preferreds had a very good day today, with volume continuing high and a solid move upwards in the perpetual sector. Turning point? Bear trap? Random noise? I’ll let you know in a month or so.

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.95% 4.93% 223,070 15.59 2 -0.3248% 1,045.8
Fixed-Floater 4.86% 4.82% 89,542 14.26 8 +0.3463% 1,044.7
Floater 4.50% 3.85% 63,553 10.72 3 +0.4839% 1,044.4
Op. Retract 4.88% 3.72% 75,688 3.34 16 -0.0015% 1,026.5
Split-Share 5.18% 5.04% 87,719 4.21 15 -0.2068% 1,041.1
Interest Bearing 6.24% 6.27% 61,176 3.59 4 -0.1006% 1,060.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.83% 5.55% 79,767 5.41 11 +0.1247% 1,008.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.56% 5.59% 339,972 14.51 55 +0.3712% 908.33
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BNA.PR.C SplitShare -1.7094% Asset coverage of 3.8+:1 as of July 31, according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.68% based on a bid of 20.70 and a hardMaturity 2019-1-10 at 25.00.
POW.PR.D PerpetualDiscount -1.4912% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.79% based on a bid of 21.80 and a limitMaturity.
FFN.PR.A SplitShare -1.2621% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.99% based on a bid of 10.17 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-1 at 10.00.
BAM.PR.K Floater +1.0638%  
W.PR.H PerpetualDiscount +1.0638% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.79% based on a bid of 23.75 and a limitMaturity.
CL.PR.B PerpetualPremium +1.1503% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.81% based on a bid of 25.50 and a call 2011-1-30 at 25.00.
NA.PR.L PerpetualDiscount +1.1905% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.73% based on a bid of 21.25 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +1.3423% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.36% based on a bid of 22.65 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.L PerpetualDiscount +1.3453% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.67% based on a bid of 22.60 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +1.3645% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.42% based on a bid of 20.80 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.I PerpetualDiscount +1.4184% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.52% based on a bid of 21.45 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.K PerpetualDiscount +1.4235% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.29% based on a bid of 22.80 and a limitMaturity.
ELF.PR.G PerpetualDiscount +1.5736% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.00% based on a bid of 20.01 and a limitMaturity.
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +1.5992% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.26% based on a bid of 21.60 and a limitMaturity.
ENB.PR.A PerpetualDiscount +1.6010% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.65% based on a bid of 24.75 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +1.7370% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.56% based on a bid of 20.50 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.G FixFloat +1.8174%  
GWO.PR.H PerpetualDiscount +1.8563% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.74% based on a bid of 21.40 and a limitMaturity.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BNS.PR.K PerpetualDiscount 286,976 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.29% based on a bid of 22.80 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 220,770 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.68% based on a bid of 20.06 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.L PerpetualDiscount 216,500 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.41% based on a bid of 20.95 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 184,950 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.52% based on a bid of 21.45 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.P PerpetualDiscount 75,785 New issue settled today. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.36% based on a bid of 24.60 and a limitMaturity.

There were twenty-nine other index-included $25.00-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

TD.PR.P Avoids Opening Day Debacle

November 1st, 2007

Against all odds, the new TD issues, announced October 9, managed to make it through its first trading day without embarrassment. From the press release announcing closing, it does not appear that the underwriters’ greenshoe option was exercised.

It closed at 24.60-70, 7×10, on volume of 75,785 shares.

It may be compared with the other two recent new issues:

Recent New Issues
Issue Quote, 11/1 Pre-Tax
bid-YTW
Fair Value
TD.PR.P 24.60-70  5.36%  23.93
BNS.PR.N 24.55-57  5.39%  24.01
BMO.PR.K 24.25-29  5.46%  24.04

So I don’t get it. Comparing to the most recent (and much lower coupon) issues for each issuer:

Penultimate Issues
Issue Quote, 11/1 Pre-Tax
bid-YTW
Fair Value
TD.PR.O 22.30-35   5.47% 22.73 
BNS.PR.M 20.95-18   5.41% 21.42 
BMO.PR.J 20.75-85   5.43% 21.28 

Yields are basically comparable, although the TD issue looks expensive even on this basis. So:

  • If yields go up and prices go down, old & new will return about the same.
  • If yields are unchanged, old and new will return about the same.
  • If yields go down, the new issues will get called away just as things start to get fun, while the old issues will rack up big gains.

Doesn’t anybody do scenario analysis any more?

The issue has been added to the HIMIPref™ database with the securityCode A49008, replacing the preIssue code of P75006. A reorgDataEntry reflects the change.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices : November, 2002

November 1st, 2007

All indices were assigned a value of 1000.0 as of December 31, 1993.

HIMI Index Values 2002-11-29
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,326.6 3 2.00 4.59% 16.3 140M 5.13%
FixedFloater 1,939.6 10 2.00 4.51% 15.7 102M 5.69%
Floater 1,483.4 5 1.80 4.18% 16.6 31M 4.29%
OpRet 1,582.7 29 1.24 4.03% 2.1 121M 5.58%
SplitShare 1,544.1 9 1.67 4.81% 4.0 58M 5.70%
Interest-Bearing 1,872.7 11 2.00 6.97% 1.9 129M 7.85%
Perpetual-Premium 1,198.5 9 1.33 5.44% 6.4 154M 5.84%
Perpetual-Discount 1,357.2 14 1.64 5.77% 14.1 157M 5.80%

Index Constitution, 2002-11-29, Pre-rebalancing

Index Constitution, 2002-11-29, Post-rebalancing

HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing : October 31, 2007

November 1st, 2007

The continued carnage in the Perpetual sector caused a lot of changes this month.

Of interest was the movement of the Falconbridge issues from “Scraps” to their various indices, due to the mid-month DBRS upgrade.

HIMI Index Changes, October 31, 2007
Issue From To Because
TCA.PR.X PerpetualDiscount PerpetualPremium Price
W.PR.H PerpetualPremium PerpetualDiscount Price
PWF.PR.E PerpetualPremium PerpetualDiscount Price
CM.PR.G PerpetualPremium PerpetualDiscount Price
CM.PR.P PerpetualPremium PerpetualDiscount Price
PWF.PR.H PerpetualPremium PerpetualDiscount Price
BNS.PR.J PerpetualPremium PerpetualDiscount Price
POW.PR.C PerpetualPremium PerpetualDiscount Price
BMO.PR.H PerpetualPremium PerpetualDiscount Price
FAL.PR.A Scraps Ratchet Credit
FAL.PR.B Scraps FixFloat Credit
FAL.PR.H Scraps PerpetualPremium Credit
PWF.PR.D Scraps OpRet Volume

Index performance is available elsewhere.

HIMIPref™ Index Performance : October 2007

November 1st, 2007

Performance of the HIMI Indices for October was:

Total Return, October 2007
Index Performance
Ratchet -1.48%
FixFloat +0.75%
Floater -0.52%
OpRet -0.07%
SplitShare -0.22%
Interest +1.96%
PerpetualPremium -1.27%
PerpetualDiscount -4.77%

Not the best month to be holding perpetuals – particularly of the Discount variety! The overall pattern was much like September’s, but the decline in perpetuals was greatly accentuated.

This post will be updated in due course with returns of other indices and funds. 

Update, 2007-11-02 I have uploaded a graph of yield curves, comparing the core rates for 2007-5-9, 9-28 and 10/31. Note that these curves are spot-yields for taxable accounts. The steepening of the yield curve in October is very noticable – this hurt perpetuals even more than they would have been hurt by a parallel upwards shift.

There is no really good reason for having chosen 2007-5-9 as a comparitive date: it’s simply that this particular date has been discussed recently.

Update #2, 2007-11-2 Claymore has published their final monthly numbers and I have derived the following table:

CPD Return, 1- & 3-month, to October 31
Date NAV Distribution Return for Sub-Period Monthly Return
July 31 18.95      
August 31 19.04   +0.47% +0.47%
September 25 18.76 0.2185 -0.32% -1.23%
September 28, 2007 18.59   -0.91%
October 31 18.19   -2.15% -2.15%
Quarterly Return -2.90%

 

Update, 2007-11-04:The DPS.UN NAV for October 31 has been published, so we can calculate the October-ish returns for it:

DPS.UN NAV Return, October-ish 2007
Date NAV Distribution Return for period
September 26, 2007 $21.93 $0.30  
October 31 $21.35 $0.00 -2.64%
Adjustment for September stub-period +0.80%
Estimated October Return -1.86%
CPD had a NAV of $18.74 on September 26 and $18.59 on September 28. The beginning-of-month stub period return for CPD was therefore -0.80%, which is added back to the DPS.UN total return in order to isolate the return due to October. 

Now, to see the DPS.UN quarterly NAV approximate return, we refer to the calculations for September and August to derive:

DPS.UN NAV Returns, three-month-ish to end-October-ish, 2007
August-ish +0.22%
September-ish -0.92%
October-ish -1.86%
Three-months-ish -2.55%

Update, 2007-11-5: Performance for the BMO Capital Markets 50 is:

BMOCM-50 Returns to October, 2007
One Month -2.35%
Three Months -3.12%
One Year -0.05%
Two Years (annualized) +1.52%
Three Years (annualized) +1.28%
Four Years (annualized) +2.34%
Five Years (annualized) +3.33%
Six Years (annualized) +3.36%

Banks Advantage in Hedging Liquidity Risk

November 1st, 2007

It has taken me far too long to find this reference! Therefore, I am re-posting under the Interesting External Papers classification the following (very slightly edited) comments from September 14!

Cushioning fear-driven liquidity shocks is the banks’ bread and butter:

This paper argues that banks have a unique ability to hedge against market-wide liquidity shocks. Deposit inflows provide funding for loan demand shocks that follow declines in market liquidity. Consequently, one dimension of bank “specialness” is that banks can insure firms against systematic declines in market liquidity at lower cost than other financial institutions. We provide supporting empirical evidence from the commercial paper (CP) market. When market liquidity dries up and CP spreads increase, banks experience funding inflows. These flows allow banks to meet increased loan demand from borrowers drawing funds from pre-existing commercial paper backup lines, without running down their holdings of liquid assets. Using bank-level data, we provide evidence that implicit government support for banks during crises explains the funding flows.

From the same paper, incidentally:

Banks’ functioning as liquidity insurance providers originated early in the development of the commercial paper market. In 1970, Penn Central Transportation Company filed for bankruptcy with more than $80 million in commercial paper outstanding. As a result of their default, investors lost confidence in other large commercial paper issuers, making it difficult for some of these firms to refinance their paper as it matured. The Federal Reserve responded to the Penn Central crisis by lending aggressively to banks through the discount window and encouraging them, in turn, to provide liquidity to their large borrowers (Kane, 1974). In response to this difficulty, commercial paper issuers thereafter began purchasing backup lines of credit from banks to insure against future funding disruptions (Saidenberg and Strahan, 1999).

Best & Worst Performing Issues : October 2007

November 1st, 2007

These are total returns, with dividends presumed to have been reinvested at the bid price on the ex-date. The list has been restricted to issues in the HIMIPref™ indices.

Issue Index DBRS Rating Monthly Performance Notes (“Now” means “October 31”)
ELF.PR.F PerpetualDiscount Pfd-2(low) -11.43% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.15% based on a bid of 21.70 and a limitMaturity.
 
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount Pfd-1(low) -9.77% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.71% based on a bid of 19.95 and a limitMaturity.
IAG.PR.A PerpetualDiscount Pfd-2(high) -9.55% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.72% based on a bid of 20.36 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount Pfd-1(low) -9.48% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.66% based on a bid of 20.15 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.H PerpetualDiscount Pfd-1(low) -9.09% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.85% based on a bid of 21.01 and a limitMaturity.
BNA.PR.A SplitShare Pfd-2(low) +1.43% Assect coverage of 3.8+:1 as of July 31, according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.65% based on a bid of 25.62 and a call 2008-10-31 at 25.25
PWF.PR.G PerpetualPremium Pfd-1(low) +1.43% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.58% based on a bid of 25.30 and a call 2011-8-16 at 25.00.
BCE.PR.C FixedFloater Pfd-2(low)    

Review Negative

+1.49%  
BAM.PR.H OpRet Pfd-2(low) +2.37% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.00% based on a bid of 25.90 and a softMaturity 2012-3-30 at 25.00.
BSD.PR.A InterestBearing Pfd-2 +4.64% Asset coverage of just under 1.8:1 according to Brookfield Funds. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.12% (mostly as interest) based on a bid of 9.47 and a hardMaturity 2015-3-31 at 10.00. Performance may have gotten a lift from the pending retraction feature; the capital units are trading fairly close to their NAV, but the NAV is after a $10 allowance on the preferreds.

The variance of returns was even more bizarre this month than it was in September!

October 31, 2007

October 31st, 2007

American GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.9% in the third quarter, but economists were not impressed. On a positive note, ADP Employment data was stronger than expected, which implies that next Friday’s jobs number shouldn’t be disastrous, at any event.

In other words: we’re confused! So what else is new?

The Fed cut to 4.50% today, as expected. When the market is unanimous, the Fed usually listens. Accrued Interest looks to the future and sees the potential for future cuts measured in terms of bank rescue rather than broader inflation/economic concerns.

The more things change … in 1993, the US had the steepest yield curve since the Civil War, as the Fed was busy bailing out the banks’ profitability (this was in the aftermath to the S&L crisis, remember). Then, in 1994, the music suddenly stopped and Orange County, among others, couldn’t find a chair. It will be most interesting to see how this cycle unfolds!

Well, thank heavens that month’s over! There have been a huge variation of the returns in the HIMIPref™ indices over the past month and the fund was unfortunate enough to have identified a broad pricing discrepency just as the panic got started. Returns this month are not a complete disaster, I hasten to add, but will have underperformed the index.

Mind you, the yield on the fund’s holdings is now well above the index and credit quality is great … so the faster that things normalize, the happier I’ll be! Results should be published on Saturday November 3, or Sunday at the latest.

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.96% 4.91% 404,090 15.52 1 0.0000% 1,049.2
Fixed-Floater 4.91% 4.82% 98,002 15.84 7 -0.0519% 1,041.1
Floater 4.52% 4.54% 65,688 16.27 3 -0.1234% 1,039.4
Op. Retract 4.87% 3.82% 79,227 3.44 15 +0.0956% 1,026.6
Split-Share 5.17% 4.99% 86,527 4.10 15 +0.3344% 1,043.3
Interest Bearing 6.23% 6.22% 61,028 3.59 4 -0.1501% 1,062.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.71% 5.60% 104,069 8.73 17 +0.2043% 1,006.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.58% 5.62% 321,198 14.48 47 +0.2649% 905.0
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
ELF.PR.G PerpetualDiscount -1.5492% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.09% based on a bid of 19.70 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.H PerpetualDiscount -1.0363% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.85% based on a bid of 21.01 and a limitMaturity.
W.PR.J PerpetualDiscount +1.0482% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.85% based on a bid of 24.10 and a limitMaturity.
POW.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +1.0502% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.70% based on a bid of 22.13 and a limitMaturity.
BMO.PR.H PerpetualPremium (for now!) +1.0850% Ex-Dividend today. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.22% based on a bid of 24.94 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.H PerpetualDiscount +1.1759% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.62% based on a bid of 21.51 and a limitMaturity.
FTU.PR.A SplitShare +1.1964% Asset coverage of just under 2.0:1 according to the Company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.93% based on a bid of 10.15 and a hardMaturity 2012-12-1 at 10.00.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +1.4602% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.66% based on a bid of 20.15 and a limitMaturity.
BNA.PR.C SplitShare +1.6900% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.47% based on a bid of 21.06 and a hardMaturity 2019-1-10 at 25.00.
NA.PR.K PerpetualPremium +1.7066% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.80% based on a bid of 25.03 and a call 2012-6-14 at 25.00.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
GWO.PR.X OpRet 100,629 Desjardins crossed 30,000 at 26.61, then another 70,000 at 26.65. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.76% based on a bid of 26.50 and a softMaturity 2013-9-29 at 25.00.
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 95,846 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.71% based on a bid of 19.95 and a limitMaturity.
ELF.PR.G PerpetualDiscount 85,590 Desjardins crossed 25,000 at 20.00, then Scotia crossed 50,000 at the same price. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.09% based on a bid of 19.70 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 82,000 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.57% based on a bid of 20.36 and a limitMaturity.
BMO.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 70,040 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.41% based on a bid of 20.85 and a limitMaturity.

There were thirty other index-included $25.00-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

A Bear Checks In

October 31st, 2007

After having given so much attention to the neighborhood bull, it seems only fair to allow some comments from the bears!

Hi James:

Here is the result of a little calculation I did with Royal Bank bond yields and pref yields.  It looks similar (today at least) for other banks, but I don’t have lots of historical bond data.

Comparing RY Bonds and Prefs
  11-May-07 26-Oct-07
Bond Yield (Dur = 5) 4.21% 5.14%
Discount Pref Yield 4.50% 5.49%
Disc Pref Duration 22.1 18.6
Spread 0.29% 0.35%
Yield Ratio 1.069 1.068

Although we seem to be comparing bond apples (duration 5) to pref oranges (duration 18-22), the arithmetic spread, and especially the yield ratio (which I like better for many things and many reasons) is basically the same today as it was 5 months ago.  I happen to have some data from May 11 for two RY bonds, but have no older data.

Perhaps you have access to more historical bond and pref data to investigate this further, but one conclusion I would draw is that pref yields are not currently out of line with bond yields.  Furthermore, a 5.14% bond yield is consistent with (perhaps slightly below) US bond yields.  If the corporate yields hold, then discount prefs will NOT recover, so investors today should only expect the yield component, and give up hoping for capital gains — and could suffer more losses if corporate yields increase.  I wish I knew more about this apparent relationship over the past couple of years of Pref purchasing!

I also note that the bond equivalent yield ratio (at least at this wildly different duration) is 1.07 in the market, rather than 1.40 for taxable investors.  No reason they should be the same because the buyers and sellers of prefs and bonds are quite different. You are welcome to use this with attribution, if you like. ******************************************

[Later] One minor glitch on this, the 1.07 Yield ratio is the inverse of the 1.40 bond equivalent yield, so for direct comparison should be more like 0.93.  Thus there is a 50% (1.40/0.93) after-tax yield advantage to pref shares compared with Duration = 5 bonds.

Well! The first problem I see is with the data. I looked up the issue Royal Bank 4.53% May 7, 2012. This is a deposit note, the most senior bank debt issued (and thus, in terms of credit quality, as far as you can get from a preferred while remaining with the same issuer). It’s basically a liquid institutional GIC and there is $950-million outstanding. According to Bloomberg, the yield on 5/11 was 4.53%.

This is quite the discrepency! If we go to Canadian Bond Indices, we can look at a graph of short-term yields – for both corporates and Canadas. The quoted figure, 4.21%, looks more like a plausible yield for a Canada 5-year, while 4.53% looks like an entirely reasonable value for a 5-year Royal Bank DN.

I suggest it’s better to compare long indices with the PerpetualDiscount index; this reduces the duration mis-match and diversifies away the asystemic risk introduced by using a single corporate for a comparison. Using data from the Bank of Canada we see that the Scotia / PC-Bond / Dex long-term all-corporate index was yielding 5.42% on May 9; going back to Canadian Bond Indices, we can say it’s about 5.8% now; and construct the following table:

Comparing Corporate Bonds and Prefs
  27-Dec-2006 9-May-07 30-Oct-07
Bond Yield 5.18% 5.42% ~5.80%
Bond Duration ~11.7 ~11.6 ~11.3
Discount Pref Yield 4.51% 4.65% 5.64%
Disc Pref Duration 11.73 16.12 14.45
Disc Pref
Interest
Equivalent
6.31% 6.51% 7.90%
Interest-
Equivalent
Yield Ratio
(Prefs : Bonds)
1.22:1 1.20:1  1.36:1
Interest-
Equivalent
Yield Spread
(Prefs – Bonds)
113bp 109bp 210bp 

So, pending further discussion, it does not appear to me that a bearish argument based on yield spreads in the current year is very convincing!

Update: My correspondent was the commentator prefhound. The delay in attribution was due to my wanting to check how he wanted the attribution made.