Archive for July, 2007

GWL.PR.L Called for Redemption

Monday, July 23rd, 2007

The Great-West Life Assurance Company has announced:

its intention to redeem all 2,093,032 Non-Cumulative Preferred Shares, Series L on October 31, 2007 for the cash redemption price of $25.00 per share. The Series L Preferred Shares were issued on November 13, 1997.

GWL.PR.L is a relatively small issue (only 2,093,032 shares outstanding, according to the TSX), but this is an interesting development nevertheless.

This is a fixed-floater that was issued as consideration for the shares of London Insurance Group and have a paid-up capital of only $2.74. There will be a significant Deemed Dividend realized on the redemption of these shares – so holders should consult their personal tax advisors and figure out – pronto! – whether they should be sold instantly or not.

This deemed dividend WILL BE LIABLE FOR TAX irrespective of whether the holder actually got them in exchange for London Insurance shares or bought them yesterday, so pay attention and don’t waste any time before figuring out what this means for you! I’m only saying this once! Those who hold the shares on the redemption date will be putting a massive dividend on their tax returns. If the shares were bought at, say, $25, they will also be entitled to claim an equally massive capital loss. These effects might offset … they might not. CONSULT A TAX ADVISOR!

The timing of the call is not accidental – from the Takeover Document:

Until October 31, 2007, the holders of the GWL Preferred Shares, Series L will be entitled to receive quarterly non-cumulative preferential cash dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of GWL, payable on the last day of January, April, July and October in each year at a rate equal to $0.325 per share to initially yield 5.20 %. The first such dividend, if declared, will be payable on January 31, 1998 in an amount per share equal to $1.30 multiplied by a fraction, the numerator of which is the number of days in the initial dividend period and the denominator of which is 365.

From October 31, 2007 (the ‘‘Floating Rate Period’’), the holders of the GWL Preferred Shares, Series L will be entitled to receive floating non-cumulative cash dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of GWL, payable on the last day of January, April, July and October in each year at a rate in respect of each quarterly dividend period equal to one quarter of the greater of (a) 75% of Prime and (b) 4.50%.

October 31, 2007 was to have been an Exchange Date and these were to have been exchangeable into Series M, a fixed-reset issue … but none of this is applicable any more.

As mentioned by GWO on their site, full details of GWO.PR.L are available on SEDAR – look for “The Great-West Life Assurance Company” “Take-over Bid Circular” date September 11, 1997.

Great-West Lifeco, the parent, will announce second quarter results on August 1. I do hope they will announce the redemption of CL.PR.B … the continued existence of this issue is making my life miserable.
GWL.PR.L is not tracked by HIMIPref™.

BCX.PR.A : Partial Call for Redemption

Monday, July 23rd, 2007

BCX Split Corp. has announced:

that it has called 1,521,805 Preferred Shares for cash redemption on August 3, 2007 (in accordance with the Company’s Articles) representing approximately 71.183% of the outstanding Preferred Shares as a result of the special annual retraction of 1,642,307 Capital Shares by the holders thereof. The Preferred Shares shall be redeemed on a pro rata basis, so that each holder of Preferred Shares of record on August 2, 2007 will have approximately 71.183% of their Preferred Shares redeemed. The redemption price for the Preferred Shares will be $15.71 per share.

This issue has not been tracked by HIMIPref™.

BMT.PR.A : Partial Call for Redemption

Monday, July 23rd, 2007

BMONT Split Corp. has announced:

that it has called 180,051 Preferred Shares for cash redemption on August 3, 2007 (in accordance with the Company’s Articles) representing approximately 36.364% of the outstanding Preferred Shares as a result of the special annual retraction of 413,492 Capital Shares by the holders thereof. The Preferred Shares shall be redeemed on a pro rata basis, so that each holder of Preferred Shares of record on August 2, 2007 will have approximately 36.364% of their Preferred Shares redeemed. The redemption price for the Preferred Shares will be $27.45 per share.

This issue is tracked by HIMIPref™ but is such a low-volume issue that it is included only in the “Scraps” index.

HIMIPref™ Indices: December, 1998

Monday, July 23rd, 2007

Scheduling difficulties have been (largely!) resolved and I intend to catch up with index calculation rapidly! 

All indices were assigned a value of 1000.0 as of December 31, 1993.

HIMI Index Values 1998-12-31
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,538.2 0 0 0 0 0 0
FixedFloater 1,609.1 8 2.00 4.62% 15.4 293M 5.00%
Floater 1,448.4 5 1.80 5.18% 14.4 49M 5.69%
OpRet 1,378.0 30 1.20 4.16% 3.7 76M 6.10%
SplitShare 1,398.7 5 1.39 5.48% 7.0 75M 5.40%
Interest-Bearing 1,378.0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Perpetual-Premium 1,266.1 9 1.33 4.99% 9.9 220M 5.97%
Perpetual-Discount 1,305.8 0 0 0 0 0 0

Index Constitution, 1998-12-31, Pre-rebalancing

Index Constitution, 1998-12-31, Post-rebalancing

EMP.PR.B Downgraded to Pfd-4(high) by DBRS

Saturday, July 21st, 2007

DBRS has announced that it:

has today downgraded the long-term debt rating of Empire Company Ltd. (Empire or the Company) to BB (high) from BBB, the Preferred Share rating to Pfd-4 (high) from Pfd-3, and discontinued the short-term rating. The trends remain Negative for the long-term and Preferred Shares ratings.

DBRS placed Empire’s ratings Under Review with Negative Implications on April 27, 2007 following the announcement that Empire and Sobeys Inc. (Sobeys or the Company) had entered into an agreement by which Empire would acquire all of the outstanding common shares of Sobeys that it did not already own for approximately $1.06 billion. Empire previously owned 72.1% of the issued and outstanding shares of Sobeys.

The significant increase in financial leverage, combined with a weaker profitability at Sobeys, has led to DBRS’s two-notch reduction in long-term ratings. The negative trend reflects the challenges involved with reversing the declining profitability and cash flow at Sobeys. DBRS is also concerned with the high level of budgeted capex and/or additional acquisitions that could result in further increases to debt for the consolidated group.

EMP.PR.B is a tiny little issue with 331,900 shares outstanding, total par value $8.3 million, according to the 2006 Annual Report. They pay 75% of prime. The TSX indicates a listing date of July 9, 1982, which illustrates one of my hobby-horses: with floaters you get short-term rates and long-term credit risk.

This issue is not, has not been, and will not be tracked by HIMIPref™ – too small!

July 20, 2007

Friday, July 20th, 2007

A good day for both Canadas and Treasuries in a day that had not so much news as the continued unfolding of the sub-prime saga.

Junk bonds continued to get hammered today, with a certain amount of leakage into investment grade bonds via financial corporations. Dramatically, credit spreads on the Tribune Co. buyout are now at +770bp [to get an idea of what that means, see the primers].

And – this should not really be a surprise – the finger-pointing has begun. The CEO of KBHome blames the Fed (or, the rapid rise in short rates controlled by the Fed, anyway), while the Fed blames sloppy investors.

I mentioned on July 18 that it would be most interesting to buy foreclosed residential properties in the US on the cheap, and this is exactly what Miami’s developers are hoping for.

The preferred market had a good day, with good volume. A noticable chunk of this volume was in selected split share issues, perhaps due to next week’s index rebalancing.

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 5.12% 5.14% 24,826 15.23 2 +0.1035% 1,028.0
Fixed-Floater 4.98% 5.24% 139,766 15.18 8 -0.0035% 1,014.8
Floater 4.86% 0.94% 81,521 4.19 4 +0.0302% 1,048.7
Op. Retract 4.83% 4.12% 86,137 2.98 16 -0.0115% 1,020.8
Split-Share 5.05% 4.62% 114,268 3.92 17 +0.2343% 1,048.5
Interest Bearing 6.17% 6.28% 68,453 4.43 3 +1.4533% 1,044.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.51% 5.07% 117,741 5.39 26 +0.1477% 1,026.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.09% 5.13% 348,619 15.27 38 +0.0958% 969.9
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
POW.PR.C PerpetualPremium +1.0502% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.86% based on a bid of 25.98 and a call 2012-1-5 at 25.00. A hefty bid for 4,500 shares, at that, which exceeds the average daily volume.
ELF.PR.G PerpetualDiscount +1.1960% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.43% based on a bid of 22.00 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount +1.2118% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.03% based on a bid of 22.55 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.J PerpetualPremium +1.3354% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.67% based on a bid of 25.80 and a call 2013-11-28 at 25.00.
BSD.PR.A InterestBearing +1.6043% The bidders came back after yesterday’s swoon. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.00% (nearly all as interest) based on a bid of 9.50 and a hardMaturity 2015-3-31 at 10.00.
BNA.PR.C SplitShare +2.6552% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.91% based on a bid of 23.97 and a hardMaturity 2019-1-10 at 25.00.
FIG.PR.A InterestBearing +2.7749% Powering the InterestBearing index to an impressive rise – better performance over the last two days than BSD.PR.A. Unfortunately, it’s now at its current call price, so there’s probably not much capital gain left, although the yield is still good: now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.35% based on a bid of 10.00 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-31 at 10.00.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
CM.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 85,820 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.03% based on a bid of 22.45 and a limitMaturity.
IGM.PR.A OpRet 57,013 Desjardins crossed 50,000 at 27.15 (and bought at least 2,600 shares at slightly lower prices in five tranches 4 minutes before the closing bell). Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.72% based on a bid of 27.00 and a call 2009-7-30 at 26.00.
CM.PR.C PerpetualPremium 50,400 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.99% based on a bid of 25.93 and a call 2011-8-30 at 25.00.
PIC.PR.A SplitShare 39,723 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.27% based on a bid of 15.66 and a hardMaturity 2010-11-1 at 15.00.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount 23,400 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.08% based on a bid of 22.35 and a limitMaturity.

There were twenty-three other $25-equivalent index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

Credit Default Swaps: Links to Primers

Friday, July 20th, 2007

Credit default swaps have been in the news quite a bit lately, so I’m posting some links to articles:

Credit Default Swap (CDS) Primer, Nomura, May 2004

The CDS Market: A Primer, Deutsche Bank, 2004

Bloomberg article on Insider Trading (hat tip Bill Cara) Note: it’s not clear to me why these changes in the CDS levels did not leak into the bond market via arbitrage of the basis.

Update, 2007-7-29: There’s a good introduction at the Accrued Interest blog.

Update, 2007-9-13: There are some good downloadable papers at John Hull’s website. Hull & White, 2000 is the basis for the Bloomberg CDSW screen.

Update, 2008-01-28: Hu & Black discuss the problems inherent in “debt decoupling” – if the owner of a bond is fully, or even more than fully, hedged via CDSs, this block of bonds might be voted in a manner that is predjudicial to the economic interest of that class of creditors.

There are also several sources of qualitative evidence. One is the recent tendency for credit default swap contracts to require the protection buyer, if it is also a creditor, to act in the interests of other creditors. This suggests concern that the protection buyer might not otherwise do so. How this obligation can be enforced, however, without disclosure of either votes or hedges, is anyone’s guess. We have also heard from bankruptcy judges that they sometimes see odd behavior in their courtrooms, which empty crediting might explain. For example, one judge described a case in which a junior creditor complained that the firm’s value was too high, even though a lower value would hurt the class of debt the creditor ostensibly held.

There is some commentary at Naked Capitalism.

Update, 2008-2-6: More warnings via Naked CapitalismCDSs may not work as advertised due to operational issues, the ascendency of Sales over Risk Management, and the relative amounts of notional vs. deliverable bonds.

Update, 2008-3-30: Another risk with CDSs is a potential disparity between the cash-settlement price and the ultimate recovery price, as has happened with Delphi. See AleaBlog and Felix Salmon.

Update, 2008-4-3: It’s linked in the comments, but I should highlight the February 21 review of some BoC Research into CDS Pricing.

Update, 2008-9-4: See also CDS Recovery Locks.

Update, 2009-3-12: Risk Weight of Credit Default Swaps.

July 19, 2007

Thursday, July 19th, 2007

A very quiet day for both Treasuries and Canadas today, as commentators parsed Bernanke’s Congressional testimony and decided it was ‘steady as she goes’.

China is projected to tighten, while Brad Setser worries that the world is taking too long to adjust. China has been stimulated by exports to the US for too long!

Chrysler makes the daily summary again, this time because its finance unit is having to pay up for loans. S&P bit the bullet with another mass downgrade of sub-prime CDOs, while JPMorgan warned that worse is to come in the primary market, but the bad news has been reflected in the ABX Derivatives market.

Mulvihill announced  exchange ratios for Premium Income II today … given that the setting of these ratios was delayed, I suspect that the offering is not doing very well. We shall see, however … and if they sell enough, I’ll add it to the HIMIPref™ universe, since I like the terms of the preferreds.

BCE Prefs had another strong day today, perhaps reflecting Desjardins’ drum-pounding. The preferred share market continued to rise – slowly & haltingly, perhaps, but it is rising!

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 5.15% 5.17% 24,945 15.19 2 +0.2280% 1,026.9
Fixed-Floater 4.98% 5.25% 140,357 15.17 8 +0.3343% 1,014.8
Floater 4.86% 0.75% 81,972 8.25 4 -0.0300% 1,048.4
Op. Retract 4.83% 4.05% 85,251 2.72 16 -0.0034% 1,020.9
Split-Share 5.06% 4.61% 114,266 3.91 17 +0.0288% 1,046.1
Interest Bearing 6.26% 6.51% 66,576 4.39 3 -1.5631% 1,029.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.52% 5.11% 117,321 5.40 26 +0.1128% 1,024.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.09% 5.13% 351,271 14.88 38 +0.1822% 968.9
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BSD.PR.A InterestBearing -3.7075% It looks like the bidders were just plain frightened away, as it closed at 9.35-55, 27×34. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.27% based on a bid of 9.35 and a hardMaturity 2015-3-31 at 10.00. Strange, what with Sentry Select about to come to market with InterestBearing prefs that will yield 6.25% for less than three-and-a-half years.
LFE.PR.A SplitShare -1.2253% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.31% based on a bid of 10.48 and a hardMaturity 2012-12-1 at 10.00.
BCE.PR.Z FixFloat +1.6196%  
CM.PR.H PerpetualDiscount +2.1277% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.01% based on a bid of 24.00 and a limitMaturity.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
RY.PR.W PerpetualDiscount 153,500 RBC crossed 150,000 at 24.68. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.03% based on a bid of 24.70 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.K Floater 36,356 Nesbitt bought 10,000 from National Bank at 24.85, then National Bank crossed 20,000 at 24.80.
CM.PR.H PerpetualDiscount 34,060 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.01% based on a bid of 24.00 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 30,100 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.06% based on a bid of 22.30 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.L PerpetualDiscount 28,035 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.01% based on a bid of 22.55 and a limitMaturity.

There were nineteen other $25-equivalent index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

July 18, 2007

Wednesday, July 18th, 2007

Both Treasuries and Canadas edged up today, as Canadian inflation wasn’t as bad as feared and US inflation didn’t scare anybody. Not Bernanke and not macroblog, anyway!

JPMorgan noted that junk is getting harder to sell and Freddy Mac agreed. Moody’s is claiming their tough-mindedness on sub-prime cost them business, which wouldn’t surprise me. How many Portfolio Managers, though, are going to lose their jobs for buying stuff not rated by Moody’s? That’s what counts.

DBRS has released a report titled “Analysis of Subprime Loan Concentration by Major Metropolitan Area and Corresponding Economic and HPA Trends”, available by emailing them. You know? If I was a smooth-talking salesman type, I’d be trying to put together a REIT at the moment, buying entire residential neighborhoods at half of last year’s prices. I’ve seen anecdotal reports of massive write-downs … and I recall, from somewhere, it is utter confusion over the recovery rate that is holding up ratings revisions of sub-prime CDO’s. Mind you, I also recall seeing … somewhere … some report in which it was claimed that banks et al. are hanging on to useless properties (in Cleveland?) for a long time, because they don’t have to book the loss until they sell the property. One way or another, though, there will be some people making good money from this mess.

BCE prefs had a good day today. It would appear that John Nagel swings a big stick! Volume was good, despite a lack of notable crosses. BMT.PR.A finally declared their dividend.

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 5.19% 5.21% 24,931 15.13 2 +0.5010% 1,024.6
Fixed-Floater 5.00% 5.27% 140,123 15.14 8 +0.4736% 1,011.4
Floater 4.86% 0.75% 80,480 4.18 4 +0.2926% 1,048.7
Op. Retract 4.83% 4.09% 85,096 2.78 16 -0.0585% 1,021.0
Split-Share 5.06% 4.61% 114,454 3.91 17 +0.0567% 1,045.8
Interest Bearing 6.16% 6.21% 65,096 4.43 3 +0.7856% 1,046.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.53% 5.14% 118,130 5.40 26 +0.0970% 1,023.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.10% 5.14% 353,753 14.87 38 +0.1583% 967.2
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BNA.PR.C SplitShare -1.2992% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.11% based on a bid of 23.55 and a hardMaturity 2019-1-10 at 25.00.
BAM.PR.M PerpetualDiscount -1.0989% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.54% based on a bid of 21.60 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +1.0782% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.04% based on a bid of 22.50 and a limitMaturity.
BSD.PR.A InterestBearing +1.5690% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.63% (as interest!) based on a bid of 9.71 and a hardMaturity 2015-3-31 at 10.00.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
GWO.PR.X OpRet 70,774 Desjardins crossed 10,000 at 26.85. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.42% based on a bid of 26.75 and a call 2009-10-30 at 26.00.
ELF.PR.G PerpetualDiscount 65,754 Scotia crossed 50,000 at 21.70. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.53% based on a bid of 21.57 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.G PerpetualDiscount 45,714 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.02% based on a bid of 22.83 and a limitMaturity. The currentYield is 4.93% … the huge discrepency is due to the fact that RY.PR.G will soon be going ex-dividend on a big first coupon. Note that the difference is even larger for RY.PR.F … 4.88% current, 5.01% YTW.
BNS.PR.M PerpetualDiscount 24,727 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.02% based on a bid of 22.50 and a limitMaturity.
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount 23,360 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.97% based on a bid of 22.85 and a limitMaturity.

There were twenty-four other $25-equivalent index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

Desjardins Likes BCE Prefs

Wednesday, July 18th, 2007

John Nagel, who was last mentioned in this blog touting BCE Prefs to the National Post, is now doing the same for the Globe and Mail:

Desjardins doesn’t believe another bid will hurt the BCE preferred shareholders. Here’s why. BCE’s board has issued conditions that must be met for it to approve a superior bid, including the condition that another bid must be “more favourable from a financial point of view to the affected shareholders.”

Furthermore, the definitive agreement over the takeover defines affected shareholders as common and preferred shareholders (see Article 1: Interpretation, Section 1.1: Definitions).

“From a preferred share perspective, we feel that any additional bid(s) that may surface in the future for BCE Inc. will likely include a bid for the preferred share issues – as anything short of this would be a lower quality bid,” Desjardins said in a recent report.Even in a scenario where Telus Corp. counters with a hostile bid for BCE Inc., preferred shareholders should be reminded that Telus stated in its initial conference call that it would not sacrifice itsinvestment grade credit rating, Desjardins said. “This would mean that BCE Inc. preferred share credit ratings would not be changed, and should continue to trade as they had pre-takeover rumours (adjusted for recent interest rate effects).

Well – as I have said previously: he may well be right. And as I have also said previously: these shares cannot be analyzed as fixed income investments – there is event risk up the wazoo here and a position in the shares amounts to a speculation on the course of near term events outside the control of – and beyond the knowledge of – investors.

With respect to the points made in this particular column – and remembering that I am not so much disagreeing with Mr. Nagel as I am being a devil’s advocate and a properly gloomy fixed income analyst:

  • With respect to the protection for “Affected Shareholders” … in the first place, the definition refers to Affected Shareholders as a group. It does not say anything about each particular class of Affected Shareholder. So if, for instance, common shareholders get an extra $1.50 and preferred shareholders get to keep their wonderful preferreds, how confident are you that the board will turn it down? Are you prepared to fight it out in court if you disagree with their decision?
  • The board only has to approve a friendly bid. That’s what will make it friendly. A hostile bidder, focussing on the common, won’t care two hoots about silly agreements and funny definitions.
  • Telus has indeed stated that it would not sacrifice its investment grade rating. Well, that’s a fine ambition, but I’m not sure how much I want to bet on that.

Mr. Nagel’s long term track record was not disclosed.

BCE has the following preferred shares outstanding: BCE.PR.A, BCE.PR.C, BCE.PR.E, BCE.PR.F, BCE.PR.G, BCE.PR.H, BCE.PR.I, BCE.PR.R, BCE.PR.S, BCE.PR.T, BCE.PR.Y & BCE.PR.Z