Archive for February, 2009

Seminar, February 26: PerpetualDiscounts

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

Update, 2009-8-25: To gain access to the on-line video of this seminar and the ancillary written material, please visit PrefLetter.com

I am pleased to announce that I will be hosting a seminar series on the theory and practice of preferred share investing.

These seminars will be aimed at active and potential preferred share investors who wish to review relative valuation techniques in preferred share analysis.

All seminars will be presented by James Hymas, who has written extensively on the subject of preferred share investment and has been referred to as a "top expert" on the subject.

Questions are encouraged throughout the seminars, as well as in informal discussion at the end of the session.

Each seminar is two hours in length; coffee and tea will be served. The cost of attendance is $100, but a discount of $50 will be given to participants who have an annual subscription to PrefLetter with at least one issue remaining at the time of the seminar.

PerpetualDiscounts: Theory & Practice

"PerpetualDiscounts" are currently the most common type of preferred share in Canada. They are characterized by:

  • No mechanism whereby the issue can be forced to redeem the shares
  • A fixed dividend rate
  • Call provisions in the issuer’s favour
  • a trading price below their call price

This seminar will review the theory of PerpetualDiscount evaluation, including:

  • Credit Quality
  • The embedded call
  • The importance of ex-Dividend dates
  • Importance of cumulative dividends
  • Investment characteristics relative to bonds

Examples of relative valuation in current markets will be supplied and discussed.

Attendence is limited; a reservation will avoid disappointment.

Location: Days Hotel & Conference Center, (at Carlton & College, downtown Toronto) Yorkville Room (see map).

Time: February 26, 2009, 6pm-8pm.

Reservations: Please send an eMail to jiHymas@himivest.com.

Update, 2009-4-24: The seminar and its ancillary material have been accredited for four hours of IDA Professional Development Continuing Education.

Update, 2009-8-24: ◦This program is eligible for four CE credit hours, as granted by CFA Institute. If you are a CFA Institute member, CE credit for your participation in this program will be automatically recorded in your CE Diary.

 
 

February 2, 2009

Monday, February 2nd, 2009

Spend-Every-Penny is urging Canadian investors to ignore banks’ capital ratios:

“We have said that we’ll do what’s necessary to protect the Canadian banking system,” Mr. Flaherty reiterated on Saturday from Davos during a conference call with reporters.

It seems like only a few months back he was saying that his government would no more run a deficit than a man could have a baby.

With a hat-tip to Econbrowser, a graph from Calculated Risk puts the current crash in perspective:


Click for big

Volume was off today – month-end window dressing is done for another three weeks? – and PerpetualDiscounts eased off slightly. Recent increases in the Canada 5-year yield have triggered legitimate expectations (subject to volatility!) of five-year calls in the Fixed-Reset market.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 5.42 % 3.91 % 25,470 17.54 2 0.0000 % 851.6
FixedFloater 7.27 % 7.01 % 65,980 13.88 7 -0.3021 % 1,380.5
Floater 5.41 % 4.51 % 32,457 16.37 4 2.8624 % 970.7
OpRet 5.31 % 4.78 % 164,009 4.02 15 -0.0334 % 2,023.0
SplitShare 6.24 % 10.18 % 73,501 4.09 15 -0.2611 % 1,785.1
Interest-Bearing 7.08 % 8.17 % 37,095 0.87 2 -0.2880 % 1,998.9
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0234 % 1,561.8
Perpetual-Discount 6.88 % 6.87 % 220,391 12.67 71 -0.0234 % 1,438.4
FixedReset 6.10 % 5.64 % 740,671 14.10 26 0.1287 % 1,800.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
DFN.PR.A SplitShare -4.29 % Asset coverage of 1.7-:1 as of January 15, according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2014-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 8.71
Bid-YTW : 8.14 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -3.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 22.70
Evaluated at bid price : 22.99
Bid-YTW : 6.09 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -3.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 19.50
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 7.12 %
GWO.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -3.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 17.74
Evaluated at bid price : 17.74
Bid-YTW : 7.45 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 14.25
Evaluated at bid price : 14.25
Bid-YTW : 8.46 %
BNA.PR.A SplitShare -1.61 % Asset coverage of 1.8+:1 as of December 31, according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2010-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.81
Bid-YTW : 10.18 %
BCE.PR.R FixedFloater -1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.27
Bid-YTW : 7.06 %
BCE.PR.G FixedFloater -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.00
Bid-YTW : 7.23 %
TD.PR.P Perpetual-Discount -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 19.75
Evaluated at bid price : 19.75
Bid-YTW : 6.71 %
TD.PR.A FixedReset -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 21.91
Evaluated at bid price : 21.95
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 12.42
Evaluated at bid price : 12.42
Bid-YTW : 9.77 %
TD.PR.C FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 23.26
Evaluated at bid price : 23.30
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 7.65
Evaluated at bid price : 7.65
Bid-YTW : 6.97 %
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 17.17
Evaluated at bid price : 17.17
Bid-YTW : 6.67 %
W.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 19.53
Evaluated at bid price : 19.53
Bid-YTW : 7.13 %
BNS.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 18.61
Evaluated at bid price : 18.61
Bid-YTW : 6.51 %
POW.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 21.34
Evaluated at bid price : 21.34
Bid-YTW : 6.64 %
RY.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 17.75
Evaluated at bid price : 17.75
Bid-YTW : 6.37 %
HSB.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 17.55
Evaluated at bid price : 17.55
Bid-YTW : 7.39 %
BNS.PR.R FixedReset 1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 21.96
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %
PPL.PR.A SplitShare 1.92 % Asset coverage of 1.4+:1 as of January 15 according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2012-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 9.02
Bid-YTW : 8.01 %
DF.PR.A SplitShare 1.93 % Asset coverage of 1.4-:1 as of January 15, according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2014-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 8.96
Bid-YTW : 7.55 %
NA.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 2.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 17.86
Evaluated at bid price : 17.86
Bid-YTW : 6.83 %
GWO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 2.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 17.25
Evaluated at bid price : 17.25
Bid-YTW : 7.14 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 2.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 7.56
Evaluated at bid price : 7.56
Bid-YTW : 7.05 %
PWF.PR.A Floater 7.14 % Basically, reversing Friday’s nonsense.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-02-02
Maturity Price : 11.85
Evaluated at bid price : 11.85
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BNS.PR.X FixedReset 127,375 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.91
Bid-YTW : 6.41 %
NA.PR.P FixedReset 78,398 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-17
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.90
Bid-YTW : 6.77 %
TD.PR.G FixedReset 63,070 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.86
Bid-YTW : 6.45 %
RY.PR.R FixedReset 59,340 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.92
Bid-YTW : 6.40 %
BAM.PR.H OpRet 53,151 Desjardins crossed 50,000 at 22.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2012-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 10.43 %
RY.PR.P FixedReset 26,115 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.12
Bid-YTW : 6.26 %
There were 12 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

XCM.PR.A: Last Day to Vote on Reorganization

Monday, February 2nd, 2009

Commerce Split Corp has announced:

the deadline for voting on the proposed reorganization is February 3, 2009 at 10:00 a.m.

The purpose of the meeting, as previously disclosed, is to provide both Priority Equity and Class A shareholders with two choices. Effectively, there would be two investment options within the Company, each of which will be considered a separate investment fund.

The first Fund (Original Commerce Split) would function in much the same way as the Company now functions. There would continue to be two classes of shares related to this Fund: Priority Equity shares and Class A shares. The portfolio assets of the Fund would consist largely of cash and permitted repayment securities, and there would be limited exposure to the common shares of CIBC. There would continue to be a Priority Equity Portfolio Protection Plan in respect of this Fund.

The second Fund (New Commerce Split) would not have a Priority Equity Protection Plan associated with it, but rather would hold only shares of CIBC, to provide full exposure to a potential recovery in the value of CIBC common shares. The increased exposure to such common shares would create higher dividend income (assuming no changes to current dividends paid on the CIBC common shares) and the potential for much higher levels of income through the covered call writing program. In summary, under this option, Priority Equity Shares would receive the following securities for each Priority Equity share held: (i) one new $5 Class I Preferred share to yield 7.5% per annum; (ii) one Class II Preferred share with a notional value of $5 with distributions to yield 7.5% per annum on the $5 notional issue price to commence if and when the net asset value per unit of the New Commerce Split exceeds $12.50; and (iii) one half warrant. One full warrant can be exercised to purchase one Unit (consisting of one Class I Preferred share, one Class II Preferred share and one Capital share) for $10.00 at specified times for a period of two years after the closing date of the reorganization, if approved. Class A shares would receive one Capital share which would continue to participate in any net asset value growth over $10.00 per unit and dividends would only be reinstated if and when the net asset value per Unit exceeds $15.00.

Therefore, the special resolution, if passed, will effectively offer all shareholders a choice of the status quo through the Original Commerce Split or participating in a new fund through New Commerce Split that potentially could offer increased distribution and capital growth potential. The Company believes providing this choice is in the best interests of all shareholders in light of the unprecedented and severe decline in CIBC shares and the fact that there is still 6 years remaining until the maturity date of the Company.

We encourage all shareholders who have not yet voted, to vote by the February 3, 2009 deadline.

As discussed at the time of announcement, I recommend … VOTE NO!:

The preferred shareholders – currently holding a perfectly good fixed-income portfolio – are being asked to provide all the funding for the new company, taking all the downside risk of the portfolio holdings and giving away, free, gratis and for nothing an option on a big chunk of the upside. VOTE NO!

XMF.PR.A: Last Day to Vote on Reorganization

Monday, February 2nd, 2009

M-Split Corporation has announced:

Last Day to Vote on Proposed Reorganization
TORONTO, ONTARIO – February 2, 2009 / Marketwire: M Split Corp (the “Company”) announces the deadline for voting on the proposed reorganization is February 3, 2009 at 10:00 a.m.

The purpose of the meeting, as previously disclosed, is to provide both Priority Equity and Class A shareholders with two choices. Effectively, there would be two investment options within the Company, each of which will be considered a separate investment fund.

The first Fund (Original M Split) would function in much the same way as the Company now functions. There would continue to be two classes of shares related to this Fund: Priority Equity shares and Class A shares. The portfolio assets of the Fund would consist largely of cash and permitted repayment securities, and there would be limited exposure to the common shares of Manulife. There would continue to be a Priority Equity Portfolio Protection Plan in respect of this Fund.

The second Fund (New M Split) would not have a Priority Equity Protection Plan associated with it, but rather would hold only shares of Manulife, to provide full exposure to a potential recovery in the value of Manulife common shares. The increased exposure to such common shares would create higher dividend income (assuming no changes to current dividends paid on the Manulife common shares) and the potential for much higher levels of income through the covered call writing program. In summary, under this option, Priority Equity Shares would receive the following securities for each Priority Equity share held: (i) one new $5 Class I Preferred share to yield 7.5% per annum; (ii) one Class II Preferred share with a notional value of $5 with distributions to yield 7.5% per annum on the $5 notional issue price to commence if and when the net asset value per unit of the New M Split exceeds $12.50; and (iii) one half warrant. One full warrant can be exercised to purchase one Unit (consisting of one Class I Preferred share, one Class II Preferred share and one Capital share) for $10.00 at specified times for a period of two years after the closing date of the reorganization, if approved. Class A shares would receive one Capital share which would continue to participate in any net asset value growth over $10.00 per unit and dividends would only be reinstated if and when the net asset value per Unit exceeds $15.00.

Therefore, the special resolution, if passed, will effectively offer all shareholders a choice of the status quo through the Original M Split or participating in a new fund through New M Split that potentially could offer increased distribution and capital growth potential. The Company believes providing this choice is in the best interests of all shareholders in light of the unprecedented and severe decline in Manulife shares and the fact that there is still 6 years remaining until the maturity date of the Company.

We encourage all shareholders who have not yet voted, to vote by the February 3, 2009 deadline.

For further information please contact Investor Relations at 416-304-4443, toll free at 1-877-4-Quadra (1-877-478-2372), or visit www.M-Split.com.

As previously discussed, I have recommended … VOTE NO!:

The preferred shareholders – currently holding a perfectly good fixed-income portfolio – are being asked to provide all the funding for the new company, taking all the downside risk of the portfolio holdings and giving away, free, gratis and for nothing an option on a big chunk of the upside. VOTE NO!

PFD.PR.A Completes Merger into Mutual Fund

Monday, February 2nd, 2009

JovFunds Management has announced:

that the exchange of preferred shares of Charterhouse Preferred Share Index Corporation (the “Corporation”) for Class A units of Jov Leon Frazer Preferred Equity Fund (the “Merger”) was completed at the close of business on January 30, 2009. Preferred shareholders of the Corporation will receive 1.70389 units of the Class A units of the Fund for each preferred share of the Corporation held as at January 30, 2009. In connection with the Merger, the Corporation was delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange on January 23, 2009. Units of the Fund are valued daily and may be transacted via the FundSERV Network beginning today.

Please refer to the Fund’s Simplified Prospectus at www.sedar.com for information on the Fund. For more information about the Merger, or for a copy of the Simplified Prospectus of the Fund, please call 1-866-514-6603 or visit us at www.JovFunds.com.

DBRS has announced that it:

has today discontinued the rating on the Preferred Shares issued by Charterhouse Preferred Share Index Corp. (the Company). On October 31, 2008, JovFunds Management Inc. announced that the Preferred Shareholders of the Company approved a special resolution to merge the Company into a newly formed open-ended mutual fund trust. The securities of the Company were de-listed from the Toronto Stock Exchange on January 23, 2009, and the merger was executed on January 30, 2009.

This completes the previously discussed timetable. JovFunds and Leon Frazer are both owned by Jovian Capital.

HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: January 2009

Monday, February 2nd, 2009
HIMI Index Changes, January 30, 2009
Issue From To Because
BCE.PR.S Ratchet Scraps Volume
BAM.PR.G FixFloat Scraps Volume
FAL.PR.B Scraps Ratchet Volume

The relegation of BCE.PR.S and BAM.PR.G reverses changes made at December month-end.

The addition of FAL.PR.B to the Ratchet index is highly annoying: the outstanding call for redemption has boosted its price considerably.

There were the following intra-month changes:

HIMI Index Changes during January 2009
Issue Action Index Because
RY.PR.P Add FixedReset New Issue
NA.PR.O Add FixedReset New Issue
TD.PR.E Add FixedReset New Issue
BNS.PR.T Add FixedReset New Issue
RY.PR.R Add FixedReset New Issue
NA.PR.P Add FixedReset New Issue
TD.PR.G Add FixedReset New Issue
BNS.PR.X Add FixedReset New Issue

The 'risk' of Preferred Shares

Monday, February 2nd, 2009

Geez, I hate it when the Financial Post gets desperate for copy. They consult their Journalists’ Handbook, and see that if somebody says “white is white”, it’s an interesting angle to dig up somebody who’ll say “white is black”.

They did it last year and now they’ve done it again: a short piece titled The ‘risk’ of Preferred Shares, by John Greenwood, pointing out that dividends are not guaranteed.

You can almost hear the journalist’s leading questions, which are not reported:

What would happen if a bank were to skip a payment on its preferred dividend?

If a bank were to skip one, the market for the shares would “be vaporized,” said Blackmont Capital analyst Brad Smith.

How many banks would have to skip payments before the market was adversely affected?

“All that would have to happen would be for one bank to miss a payment and the whole market would shut down,” said another analyst who asked not to be named.

Particularly irksome is:

Some European banks have been forced to cut back on dividends after accepting government bailouts.

Can he name any? I’m sure there have been some preferred defaults, but I can’t remember seeing anything about government money being conditional on a preferred dividend cut. Common dividend cuts, sure, that has happened in the States too … let’s just say I want more details.

If he wants to talk about preferred share defaults, he can look at Nortel & Quebecor World right here in Canada!

The only saving grace is:

Preferred shares rank senior to common, so even if the dividend on the common is sacrificed, holders of preferred shares could still collect. According to Sherry Cooper, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, aside from National Bank, none of the major banks has cut a dividend since the Great Depression. (National chopped twice, most recently in the early 1990s.)

… but still, I find the article annoying in the extreme. Particularly since I don’t understand why the word “risk” in the title is in quotes!

Yes, preferred shares can have their dividend cut. We know that. But if somebody’s going to talk about it in the newspaper, can we PLEASE have some kind of indication of how likely they think that might be? As for myself, I consider the probability immeasurably small for Canadian banks right now …the banks are well capitalized and profitable … anything imminent would be in the nature of a black swan event, immeasurable by definition.

Let the banks here get into trouble and sure, I’ll be happy – eager! – to start taking a view on the chances of them getting into more trouble. But could we at least wait to see some actual signs of definite trouble before discussing the effects on the market of a skipped payment?

I mean, geez, what’s next? A banner headline announcing that a giant asteroid smashing into earth could ruin our whole day?

Best & Worst Performers: January 2009

Monday, February 2nd, 2009

These are total returns, with dividends presumed to have been reinvested at the bid price on the ex-date. The list has been restricted to issues in the HIMIPref™ indices.

January 2009
Issue Index DBRS Rating Monthly Performance Notes (“Now” means “January 30”)
BAM.PR.B Floater Pfd-2(low) -18.31% Up ‘n’ down, up ‘n’ down … this was the best performer in December, second-worst in November.
BAM.PR.K Floater Pfd-2(low) -16.46% Ditto, basically … worst in November, third-best in December.
IAG.PR.C FixedReset Pfd-2(high) -9.18% The underwriters had a sell-off party … and nobody came.
SBC.PR.A SplitShare Pfd-2 -8.55% Asset coverage of 1.4-:1 as of January 29, according to Brompton Group. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 12.43% based on a bid of 7.91 and a hardMaturity 2012-11-30 at 10.00.
TD.PR.C FixedReset Pfd-1 -7.16%  
PWF.PR.I PerpetualDiscount Pfd-1(low) +17.68% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.78% based on a bid of 22.26 and a limitMaturity.
W.PR.J PerpetualDiscount Pfd-2(low) +17.74% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.27% based on a bid of 19.51 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.N PerpetualDiscount Pfd-2(low) +18.06% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 9.87% based on a bid of 12.29 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.M PerpetualDiscount Pfd-2(low) +20.49% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 9.87% based on a bid of 12.29 and a limitMaturity.
BNA.PR.C SplitShare Pfd-2(low) +28.57% Asset coverage of 1.8+:1 as of December 31, according to the company – presumably a little better now, since the underlying BAM.A has improved. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 15.65% based on a bid of 11.25 and a hardMaturity 2019-1-10 at 25.00.