Archive for September, 2011

September 22, 2011

Thursday, September 22nd, 2011

Equities got creamed today:

The MSCI All-Country World Index plunged 4.5 percent at 4:39 p.m. New York time and is down 22 percent from its May peak, while emerging-market stocks tumbled the most in almost three years. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 3.2 percent to 1,129.56 after briefly falling below its 2011 closing low. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid the most over two days since 2008. Ten-year Treasury yields lost as much as 16 basis points to 1.6961 percent. The Dollar Index rose 1.4 percent.

The Federal Reserve said yesterday it saw “significant downside risks” in the economy and it will replace $400 billion of short-term debt with longer-term Treasuries to spur growth as the recovery falters. China’s manufacturing may shrink for a third month, U.S. jobless claims topped estimates and euro-area services and manufacturing output contracted for the first time in more than two years, reports showed.

The Europeans have figured out where to get the money to save the Euro: they’re going to print it:

European finance chiefs said they may use leverage to increase the financial firepower of their regional bailout fund as a selloff in stocks signaled renewed concern that policy makers are failing to ward off a global economic slump.

That has fanned speculation Europe may eventually ratchet up the fund’s spending power, perhaps by using the bonds it sells as collateral to borrow more cash from the European Central Bank. Another proposal is to mimic a U.S. program established following the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. by allowing the fund to offer the ECB credit protection for buying more sovereign bonds.

The Canadian preferred share market got smacked today in the backwash of the equity excitement, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 71bp, FixedResets off a mere 26bp and DeemedRetractibles down 49bp. Naturally enough, given these returns, the Performance Highlights table is quite lengthy, with only one winner. Volume continued to be very sluggish.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0595 % 2,080.2
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0595 % 3,128.6
Floater 3.13 % 3.40 % 54,336 18.75 3 -0.0595 % 2,246.1
OpRet 4.83 % 3.12 % 61,324 1.62 8 -0.2415 % 2,452.7
SplitShare 5.37 % 1.33 % 50,813 0.43 4 -0.0638 % 2,496.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2415 % 2,242.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.63 % 4.39 % 114,950 1.06 16 -0.3778 % 2,114.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.31 % 5.39 % 111,955 14.81 14 -0.7072 % 2,244.6
FixedReset 5.14 % 3.24 % 210,016 2.61 60 -0.2610 % 2,324.5
Deemed-Retractible 5.05 % 4.62 % 236,231 7.83 46 -0.4886 % 2,194.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -3.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.37
Bid-YTW : 6.49 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -2.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.68
Bid-YTW : 3.59 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -2.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-22
Maturity Price : 21.64
Evaluated at bid price : 21.97
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -2.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -1.97 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-22
Maturity Price : 21.54
Evaluated at bid price : 21.86
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.36
Bid-YTW : 6.42 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible -1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.60
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
MFC.PR.A OpRet -1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2015-12-18
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-22
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.35
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-22
Maturity Price : 22.58
Evaluated at bid price : 22.87
Bid-YTW : 5.90 %
BMO.PR.P FixedReset -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.51
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.82
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
TD.PR.R Deemed-Retractible -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 26.37
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.44
Bid-YTW : 6.37 %
FTS.PR.E OpRet -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.52
Bid-YTW : 3.12 %
NA.PR.K Deemed-Retractible -1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2011-10-22
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.52
Bid-YTW : 0.11 %
TCA.PR.Y Perpetual-Premium -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-05
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 52.00
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
BNS.PR.M Deemed-Retractible -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.07
Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
BMO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-05-25
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.77
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.76
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.85
Bid-YTW : 3.24 %
MFC.PR.E FixedReset -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.10
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.80
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 130,940 TD crossed 120,800 at 21.78.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 6.25 %
SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 102,660 TD crossed 94,000 at 22.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
TD.PR.N OpRet 75,018 Called for redemption.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2011-10-22
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.73
Bid-YTW : 1.49 %
TD.PR.A FixedReset 53,422 Desjardins crossed 48,100 at 26.25 and 25,000 at 26.16.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.17
Bid-YTW : 3.25 %
MFC.PR.D FixedReset 52,957 RBC bought 21,700 from TD at 26.90; and 20,000 from Nesbitt at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.89
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
FTS.PR.E OpRet 51,219 Desjardins crossed 50,000 at 26.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.52
Bid-YTW : 3.12 %
There were 20 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.O OpRet Quote: 25.65 – 27.81
Spot Rate : 2.1600
Average : 1.1993

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2013-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.65
Bid-YTW : 3.44 %

PWF.PR.A Floater Quote: 19.61 – 21.50
Spot Rate : 1.8900
Average : 1.4769

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-22
Maturity Price : 19.61
Evaluated at bid price : 19.61
Bid-YTW : 2.69 %

FTS.PR.E OpRet Quote: 26.52 – 26.99
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.3162

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.52
Bid-YTW : 3.12 %

ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.87 – 23.29
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.2911

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-22
Maturity Price : 22.58
Evaluated at bid price : 22.87
Bid-YTW : 5.90 %

TCA.PR.Y Perpetual-Premium Quote: 52.00 – 52.70
Spot Rate : 0.7000
Average : 0.5961

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-05
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 52.00
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %

SLF.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 24.68 – 24.99
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2130

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.68
Bid-YTW : 3.59 %

September 21, 2011

Wednesday, September 21st, 2011

The SEC continues its struggle against free markets:

The Securities and Exchange Commission may ask stock markets to impose fees on trading firms that submit a high number of quotations in relation to executed transactions, an executive at the regulator said.

The SEC is considering whether to urge exchanges to impose a fee for exceeding a certain order-to-execution ratio or for sending messages, which include quotes, updates, cancellations and executions, said David Shillman, associate director at the regulator’s division of trading and markets. That’s because they impose a cost on brokerages, said Shillman, who spoke in an interview at a Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association conference in New York.

There is, of course, no indication that a free market solution, like charging every order $0.0001, was ever considered. This would deny the SEC the opportunity to define Good Firms and Bad Firms.

There will be a new version of Quantitative Wheezing:

Federal Reserve policy makers will replace much of the short-term debt in their portfolio with longer-term Treasuries in an effort to further reduce borrowing costs and keep the economy from relapsing into a recession.

The central bank will buy $400 billion of bonds with maturities of six to 30 years through June while selling an equal amount of debt maturing in three years or less, the Federal Open Market Committee said today in Washington after a two-day meeting. The action “should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative,” the FOMC said.

The amount of debt to be sold represents about three- fourths of Fed holdings of between three months and three years. The central bank will release a schedule of purchases and sales of bonds for October on Sept. 30.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.6 percent to 1,183.22 at 2:37 p.m. in New York. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slid seven basis points to 1.87 percent after declining to a record low of 1.85 percent.

The IMF’s September 2011 GFSR – Chapter 1 has many cheerful things to say about banks and insurers:

For the first time since the October 2008 Global Financial Stability Report, risks to global fi nancial stability have increased (Figures 1.2 and 1.3), signaling a partial reversal in progress made over the past three years. The pace of the
economic recovery has slowed, stalling progress in balance sheet repair in many advanced economies. Sovereign stress in the euro area has spilled over to banking systems, pushing up credit and market risks. Low interest rates could lead to excesses as the “search for yield” exacerbates the turn in the credit cycle, especially in emerging markets. Recent market turmoil suggests that investors are losing patience with the lack of momentum on financial repair and reform (Box 1.1). Policymakers need to accelerate actions to address longstanding financial weaknesses to ensure stability.

Another golden straw in the wind:

The surging price of gold is fueling inflation from India to Indonesia and forcing statisticians to decide whether jewelry made of the metal still belongs in consumer-price indexes.

In South Korea, gold rings will be dropped from the inflation basket for the first time since 1975 as part of a scheduled reweighting in December, Bang Tae Kyoung, deputy director of the statistics agency, said in an phone interview from Daejeon. “People are now buying gold mostly for investment purposes, and so it should be classified as an asset, rather than spending,” Bang said.

It was a lethargic day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 6bp, FixedResets basically flat and DeemedRetractibles up 4bp. Volatility was minimal. Volume was below average.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.33%, equivalent to 6.93% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long Corporates now yield about 4.8%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 215bp, a widening from the 200bp reported on September 7.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5129 % 2,081.5
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5129 % 3,130.5
Floater 3.12 % 3.38 % 55,072 18.80 3 -0.5129 % 2,247.4
OpRet 4.82 % 2.35 % 60,621 1.63 8 -0.2217 % 2,458.6
SplitShare 5.37 % 1.22 % 51,263 0.43 4 0.0531 % 2,497.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2217 % 2,248.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.61 % 3.96 % 116,390 0.59 16 0.1859 % 2,122.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.27 % 5.33 % 113,357 14.87 14 0.0646 % 2,260.6
FixedReset 5.13 % 3.13 % 212,335 2.60 60 -0.0026 % 2,330.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.03 % 4.57 % 232,903 5.91 46 0.0435 % 2,204.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.J OpRet -1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.49
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CU.PR.C FixedReset 471,280 New issue settled today.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-21
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
TD.PR.M OpRet 226,400 Called for redemption.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2011-10-21
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : 0.65 %
BMO.PR.P FixedReset 105,505 Scotia crossed 95,000 at 26.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.86
Bid-YTW : 3.23 %
CM.PR.M FixedReset 72,440 TD crossed 71,800 at 27.65.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.58
Bid-YTW : 3.06 %
CM.PR.I Deemed-Retractible 68,368 Desjardins crossed 46,300 at 25.45.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.37
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
BNS.PR.R FixedReset 67,615 RBC crossed blocks of 25,000 shares, 30,000 and 11,000, all at 26.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.20
Bid-YTW : 3.21 %
There were 27 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TCA.PR.Y Perpetual-Premium Quote: 52.60 – 53.27
Spot Rate : 0.6700
Average : 0.4821

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-05
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 52.60
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %

FTS.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 25.90 – 26.48
Spot Rate : 0.5800
Average : 0.3954

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-21
Maturity Price : 23.89
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 3.48 %

RY.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 27.01 – 27.39
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2791

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.01
Bid-YTW : 3.53 %

CM.PR.I Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.37 – 25.63
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1835

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.37
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %

GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.61 – 23.90
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2179

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.61
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %

BMO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.86 – 26.05
Spot Rate : 0.1900
Average : 0.1218

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.86
Bid-YTW : 3.11 %

CU.PR.C Closes Strong on Good Volume

Wednesday, September 21st, 2011

Canadian Utilities has announced:

it has closed its previously announced public offering of Cumulative Redeemable Second Preferred Shares Series Y, by a syndicate of underwriters co-led by RBC Capital Markets and BMO Capital Markets, and including TD Securities Inc. and Scotia Capital Inc. As a result of the underwriters exercising in full their option to purchase an additional 2 million Series Y Preferred Shares, Canadian Utilities Limited issued 13 million Series Y Preferred Shares for gross proceeds of $325 million. The Series Y Preferred Shares will begin trading on the TSX today under the symbol CU.PR.C. The proceeds will be used for capital expenditures, to repay indebtedness and for other general corporate purposes.

CU.PR.C is a FixedReset 4.00%+240 announced September 13. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ and is assigned to the FixedReset subindex.

The issue traded 471,280 shares today in a range of 25.15-25 before closing at 25.21-25, 9×181. Vital statistics are:

CU.PR.C FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-21
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %

New Issue: ENB FixedReset 4.00%+240

Wednesday, September 21st, 2011

Enbridge Inc. has announced:

that it has entered into an agreement with a group of underwriters to sell 12 million cumulative redeemable preference shares, series b (the “Series B Preferred Shares”) at a price of $25.00 per share for distribution to the public. Closing of the offering is expected on or about September 30, 2011.

The holders of Series B Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive fixed cumulative dividends at an annual rate of $1.00 per share, payable quarterly on the 1st day of March, June, September and December, as and when declared by the board of directors of Enbridge, yielding 4.00 per cent per annum, for the initial fixed rate period ending June 1, 2017. The first quarterly dividend payment date is scheduled for March 1, 2012. The dividend rate will reset on June 1, 2017 and every five years thereafter at a rate equal to the sum of the then five-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 2.40% per cent. The Series B Preferred Shares are redeemable by Enbridge, at its option, on June 1, 2017 and on June 1 of every fifth year thereafter.

The holders of Series B Preferred Shares will have the right to convert their shares into cumulative redeemable preferred shares series C (the “Series C Preferred Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on June 1, 2017 and on June 1 of every fifth year thereafter. The holders of Series C Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating rate cumulative dividends, as and when declared by the board of directors of Enbridge, at a rate equal to the sum of the then 90-day Government of Canada treasury bill rate plus 2.40% per cent.

Enbridge has granted to the underwriters an option, exercisable at any time up to 48 hours prior to the closing of the offering, to purchase up to an additional two million Series B Preferred Shares at a price of $25.00 per share.

The offering is being made only in Canada by means of a prospectus. Proceeds will be used to reduce outstanding indebtedness, for capital expenditures and for general corporate purposes.

The syndicate of underwriters is led by Scotia Capital Inc., RBC Capital Markets, and TD Securities Inc.

It is my understanding that the issue has been biggie-sized to $500-million, but I don’t see anything from the company about this.

Update: Rated Pfd-2(low) by DBRSDBRS has today assigned a rating of Pfd-2 (low) with a Stable trend to Enbridge Inc.’s (Enbridge’s or the Company’s) $500 million Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares, Series B (the Series B Preferred Shares), which have a dividend rate of 4.0% per annum, payable quarterly for the initial five-year period ending June 1, 2017. The dividend rate will reset on June 1, 2017, and every five years thereafter at a rate equal to the sum of the then five-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 2.40%. The Series B Preferred Shares are redeemable by Enbridge on June 1, 2017, and on June 1 every five years thereafter.

September 20, 2011

Tuesday, September 20th, 2011

Roubini claims that a Greek default is better for all concerned:

“The recent debt exchange deal Europe offered Greece was a rip-off,” said Roubini in a commentary in Tuesday’s Financial Times. “If you take into account the large sweeteners the plan gave to creditors, the true debt relief is close to zero.”

The major problem, in Roubini’s view, is a lack of growth and competitiveness, which can only be overcome by currency depreciation.

“A return to a national currency and a sharp depreciation would quickly restore growth and competitiveness, as it did in Argentina and many other emerging markets that abandoned their currency pegs,” he said.

It’s official! National is buying HSBC’s brokerage:

National Bank of Canada (“National Bank” or the “Bank”), through an affiliate, has entered into an agreement with HSBC Bank Canada and certain of its subsidiaries (“HSBC Bank Canada”) pursuant to which National Bank will acquire the full service investment advisory business of HSBC Securities (Canada) Inc. (“HSBC Securities”) and certain assets related to the segregated fund and insurance business of HSBC Insurance Agency (Canada) Inc. (together, the “Full Service Investment Advisory Business”). HSBC Securities’ Full Service Investment Advisory Business has $14.2 billion of assets under administration, managed by over 120 investment advisors located in 27 offices across Canada. The Full Service Investment Advisory Business operates across Canada, with approximately 70% of its business being centered in Ontario and British Columbia.

National Bank has agreed to pay $206 million in cash to HSBC Bank Canada, subject to certain customary adjustments. An additional amount has been set aside to ensure maximum retention of investment advisors. The transaction is expected to increase National Bank’s 2012 and 2013 recurring EPS by $0.03 to $0.05. National Bank estimates the transaction will reduce its Common Equity Tier 1 ratio under Basel III rules by approximately 40 basis points. Closing is expected to occur in December 2011, subject to receipt of necessary regulatory approvals.

Here’s a straw in the wind:

Gold will exceed $2,000 this year, according to the average estimate of 16 respondents in a Bloomberg survey at the London Bullion Market Association’s conference in Montreal. The metal will peak at $2,268 next year, the survey showed.

Storage companies are responding. The 112-year-old Perth Mint, which refines more than 8 percent of all supply and is owned by the Western Australian state government, may add a new vault within the next year, according to Treasurer Nigel Moffatt. The mint sells everything from gold coins to 400-ounce (12.4- kilogram) bars.

Brink’s, the largest bullion carrier in the U.K., is considering adding more storage after opening a new London vault earlier this year. Barclays, based in London, is building a vault in the city that will open next year, the bank said in a statement last week.

Deutsche Bank, based in Frankfurt, is considering expanding existing facilities and developing new ones to meet demand, Matthew Keen, a director at the bank, said earlier this month. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) started a vault at the Singapore FreePort location last year and opened another in the financial district of New York.

Today’s winner of the coveted “Thug of the Day Prize” is Arthur Leader:

“We’ve had many angry patients say to us, ‘This is discriminatory’ and I say, ‘Yes, it is’ But I still won’t do it,” said Arthur Leader, co-founder of the Ottawa Fertility Centre. The facility where he works will not treat women with a Body Mass Index (a measurement of weight relative to height) of more than 35. A BMI of 30 meets the clinical definition of obese.

“A patient doesn’t have the right to make a choice that’s going to be harmful to them,” he said.

Yes they do, asshole. And we don’t need any pompous mechanics deciding which cars deserve to fixed, either.

For Dr. Leader, a major concern is that the “conscious sedation” used on patients while retrieving their eggs could disrupt breathing, but inserting a breathing tube into a patient who is morbidly obese is tricky and risky – “the patient could choke.”

“If that person then dies on my table – how good would I feel?” said Dr. Leader, who asks that women bring their BMI below 35 to receive treatment.

Who cares how you feel, twerp? If you feel you’re not competent to perform the procedure, then say so – spend a bit more time acting like a professional and a little less whimipering about your precious feelings.

Naturally, the possibility exists that Arthur Leader has simply applied the Canadian concept of competition to the problem of how to make a good living when there are other fertility clinics around: if you can’t beat ’em, get the regulators to outlaw the game.

Intact Financial, proud issuer of IFC.PR.A and IFC.PR.C, was confirmed at Pfd-2(low) by DBRS:

The Company’s operating subsidiaries continue to be among the stronger performers in the Canadian property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry in terms of underwriting profit and overall profitability. Overall industry profitability started to stabilize in 2010, in part as a result of the auto insurance reforms in Ontario and more benign weather patterns in 2010. For the first time in several years, Intact had an improved underwriting result, with a decline in its combined ratio.

Intact’s previous investment strategies had left it exposed to the unprecedented decline in global capital markets in 2008 and in early 2009. This led to increased impairment charges and higher realized losses as a result of the Company’s decision to actively reduce its exposure to common equity investments in financial services companies while increasing its holdings in Canadian government bonds. In 2010, the Company shifted some of its corporate exposure to bonds from preferred shares, reflecting changes to regulatory capital requirements and more efficient tax treatment. A more conservative portfolio is expected to put downward pressure on investment earnings over time but had a neutral impact year over year in 2010.

The DBRS rating on the Company reflects its holding company status. While Intact has very strong operating entities, their regulated nature and the structural subordination of holding company obligations result in a rating assignment for the parent that is at least one notch below where the operating subsidiaries might be rated in their own right.

It was a good strong day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 18bp, FixedResets up 8bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 11bp. It is of interest to note that the Bozo Spread (Current Yield PerpetualDiscounts less Current Yield FixedResets) is down to a mere 12bp. Volatility was muted, but on the positive side. Volume continued to be very low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3365 % 2,092.2
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3365 % 3,146.6
Floater 3.11 % 3.37 % 57,505 18.83 3 0.3365 % 2,259.0
OpRet 4.81 % 2.28 % 57,749 1.63 8 0.1738 % 2,464.1
SplitShare 5.37 % 0.59 % 51,614 0.44 4 0.3646 % 2,496.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1738 % 2,253.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.61 % 4.00 % 116,807 1.07 16 0.0405 % 2,118.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.27 % 5.33 % 113,782 14.86 14 0.1791 % 2,259.2
FixedReset 5.15 % 3.19 % 208,975 2.61 59 0.0754 % 2,330.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.03 % 4.56 % 234,855 4.52 46 0.1123 % 2,203.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BNA.PR.C SplitShare 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.32
Bid-YTW : 7.03 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.90
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.20
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %
TCA.PR.Y Perpetual-Premium 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-05
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 52.26
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PR.M OpRet 95,505 Called for redemption.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2011-10-20
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.72
Bid-YTW : 1.93 %
RY.PR.P FixedReset 84,700 RBC bought 40,000 from Nesbitt at 26.90, then crossed 44,200 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.90
Bid-YTW : 3.19 %
TD.PR.G FixedReset 66,700 TD crossed 30,000 at 27.30; Nesbitt crossed 20,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.30
Bid-YTW : 2.92 %
TD.PR.N OpRet 52,205 Called for redemption.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2011-10-20
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.72
Bid-YTW : 1.66 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 37,350 RBC bought 15,000 from Nesbitt at 25.05, then crossed 15,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.02
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
BNS.PR.X FixedReset 28,200 Desjardins crossed 26,200 at 27.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.30
Bid-YTW : 2.92 %
There were 20 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TCA.PR.X Perpetual-Premium Quote: 51.40 – 52.18
Spot Rate : 0.7800
Average : 0.4661

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-10-15
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 51.40
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %

PWF.PR.A Floater Quote: 19.61 – 21.50
Spot Rate : 1.8900
Average : 1.6093

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-20
Maturity Price : 19.61
Evaluated at bid price : 19.61
Bid-YTW : 2.69 %

PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.25 – 25.64
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2596

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2011-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %

FTS.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 25.85 – 26.15
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1929

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-20
Maturity Price : 23.87
Evaluated at bid price : 25.85
Bid-YTW : 3.49 %

IAG.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 26.53 – 26.91
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.3018

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.53
Bid-YTW : 3.34 %

TD.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 26.45 – 26.67
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1555

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.45
Bid-YTW : 3.38 %

September 19, 2011

Monday, September 19th, 2011

The SEC has proposed an asinine, politicized, rule:

The proposed rule would prohibit securitization participants of an ABS for a designated time period from engaging in certain transactions that would involve or result in any material conflict of interest. Two criteria to determine whether the transaction involves a material conflict of interest are set out in the rule proposal.

EXAMPLE 1: Among other things, the proposed rule could — if certain conditions are otherwise met — prohibit a firm from packaging an ABS, selling the ABS to an investor, and subsequently shorting the ABS to potentially profit at the same time as the investor would incur losses.

EXAMPLE 2: The proposed rules also could — if certain conditions are otherwise met — prohibit a firm from allowing a third party to help assemble an ABS in a way that creates an opportunity for the third party to profit from the failure of the ABS.

So, when you’re putting together an ABS, you’re not allowed to ask the guy who’s shorting the stuff to you what he’s willing to sell. And don’t take a position opposite your clients, because the SEC knows for a fact that no investor who has ever lived is smart enough to be allowed to take a view contrary to a dealer.

S&P downgraded Italy:

Italy’s credit rating was cut one level to A by Standard & Poor’s, which said the outlook remains “negative.”

The rating for Italy, which has Europe’s second-largest debt load, was lowered from A+, S&P said today in a statement. The firm said Italy’s net general government debt is the highest among A rated sovereigns, and now expects it to peak later and at a higher level than it previously anticipated.

“In our view, Italy’s economic growth prospects are weakening and we expect that Italy’s fragile governing coalition and policy differences within parliament will continue to limit the government’s ability to respond decisively to domestic and external macroeconomic challenges,” S&P said in a statement.

Italy follows Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and Greece as euro-region countries having their credit rating cut this year.

Dealbreaker has another excellent piece on the problems regarding defining “proprietary trading”.

The Canadian preferred share market took a loss today, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 29bp, FixedResets down 9bp and DeemedRetractibles off 4bp. There was an uptick in volatility, all to the downside. Volume was so low one might be forgiven for thinking it was Christmas!

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -2.7714 % 2,085.2
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -2.7714 % 3,136.1
Floater 3.12 % 3.38 % 59,618 18.81 3 -2.7714 % 2,251.4
OpRet 4.82 % 2.41 % 59,842 1.63 8 -0.0820 % 2,459.8
SplitShare 5.39 % 0.59 % 51,409 0.44 4 -0.6520 % 2,487.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0820 % 2,249.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.62 % 4.55 % 116,842 1.07 16 -0.0123 % 2,118.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.28 % 5.33 % 112,570 14.86 14 -0.2888 % 2,255.1
FixedReset 5.15 % 3.19 % 212,617 2.62 59 -0.0914 % 2,328.9
Deemed-Retractible 5.04 % 4.60 % 235,897 7.80 46 -0.0392 % 2,201.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.A Floater -5.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-19
Maturity Price : 19.51
Evaluated at bid price : 19.51
Bid-YTW : 2.71 %
BNA.PR.C SplitShare -1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 7.20 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-19
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.93
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-19
Maturity Price : 23.93
Evaluated at bid price : 24.22
Bid-YTW : 5.33 %
BNA.PR.E SplitShare -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2017-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.14
Bid-YTW : 6.39 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.F Deemed-Retractible 44,990 Desjardins crossed 33,400 at 24.94.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
BMO.PR.J Deemed-Retractible 39,301 Nesbitt crossed 20,000 at 25.05.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.11
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
MFC.PR.E FixedReset 33,054 TD crossed 19,700 at 26.35.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.29
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %
BNS.PR.R FixedReset 32,200 RBC crossed 25,000 at 26.21.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.15
Bid-YTW : 3.29 %
PWF.PR.G Perpetual-Premium 22,700 Nesbitt crossed 20,000 at 25.32.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2011-10-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : 1.11 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 22,400 RBC crossed 11,500 at 21.51.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-19
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
There were 15 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PWF.PR.A Floater Quote: 19.51 – 21.50
Spot Rate : 1.9900
Average : 1.3014

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-19
Maturity Price : 19.51
Evaluated at bid price : 19.51
Bid-YTW : 2.71 %

IAG.PR.E Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.92 – 26.34
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.2814

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.92
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %

TD.PR.O Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.55 – 25.86
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.1762

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.55
Bid-YTW : 4.55 %

BNA.PR.E SplitShare Quote: 23.14 – 23.65
Spot Rate : 0.5100
Average : 0.4061

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2017-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.14
Bid-YTW : 6.39 %

PWF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.66 – 24.94
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1851

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-19
Maturity Price : 24.35
Evaluated at bid price : 24.66
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %

BNA.PR.C SplitShare Quote: 21.10 – 21.35
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1609

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 7.20 %

TD.PR.M & TD.PR.N Called for Redemption

Monday, September 19th, 2011

TD Bank has announced:

that it will exercise its right to redeem all of its 14 million outstanding Class A First Preferred Shares, Series M (the “Series M Shares”) on October 31, 2011 at the price per share of $25.50 (for an aggregate total of approximately $357 million). The redemption price represents a $0.50 premium to the $25.00 per share face price.

TD also announced it will exercise its right to redeem all of its 8 million outstanding Class A First Preferred Shares, Series N (the “Series N Shares”) on October 31, 2011 at the price per share of $25.50 (for an aggregate total of approximately $204 million). The redemption price represents a $0.50 premium to the $25.00 per share face price.

On September 1, 2011, the Board of Directors of TD declared a quarterly dividend of $0.29375 per Series M Share and $0.2875 per Series N Share. These will be the final dividends on the Series M Shares and Series N Shares, respectively, and will be paid in the usual manner on October 31, 2011 to shareholders of record on October 11, 2011, as previously announced. After October 31, 2011, the Series M Shares and Series N Shares will cease to be entitled to dividends and the holders of such shares will not be entitled to exercise any right in respect thereof except that of receiving the redemption amount.

TD recommends shareholders consult with their tax advisors to determine the appropriate treatment and impact of the redemptions. A general summary of the tax implications will be available shortly on our website, www.td.com, under Investor Relations/Share Information/Preferred Shares.

Instructions with respect to receipt of the redemption amount will be set out in the Letter of Transmittal to be mailed to registered holders of the Series M Shares and Series N Shares shortly. Inquiries should be directed to our Registrar and Transfer Agent, CIBC Mellon Trust Company, at 1-800-387-0825 (or in Toronto 416-643-5500). Beneficial holders who are not directly the registered holder of these shares should contact the financial institution, broker or other intermediary through which they hold these shares to confirm how they will receive their redemption proceeds. Further details and instructions will be posted shortly to our website, http://www.td.com/investor-relations/ir-homepage/share-information/preferred-shares/preferred.jsp.

Holders are reminded that the fifty-cent premium over the par value that will be paid on redemption is a deemed dividend for tax purposes and will be taxed as a dividend. Many investors will therefore wish to sell into the market shortly before the last possible date in order that whatever premium received (probably just a few pennies less than the fifty cents) will be treated as a capital gain (or reduction of capital loss, as the case may be)

BCE.PR.T Dividend Reset; Conversion to and from BCE.PR.S

Monday, September 19th, 2011

BCE Inc. has announced:

As of November 1, 2011, the Series T Preferred Shares will, should they remain outstanding, pay, on a quarterly basis, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of BCE Inc., a fixed cash dividend for the following five years that will be based on a fixed rate equal to the product of: (a) the yield to maturity compounded semi-annually (the “Government of Canada Yield”), computed on October 11, 2011 by two investment dealers appointed by BCE Inc., that would be carried by non-callable Government of Canada bonds with a 5-year maturity, multiplied by (b) the “Selected Percentage Rate”. The “Selected Percentage Rate” determined by BCE Inc. is 215%. The annual dividend rate applicable to the Series T Preferred Shares will be published on October 12, 2011 in the national edition of the Globe and Mail, the Montreal Gazette and La Presse and will be posted on the BCE Inc. website at www.bce.ca.

BCE’s deadline for conversion is October 18:

Registered holders electing to convert all or part of their Series T Preferred Shares into Series S Preferred Shares must complete and sign the conversion panel on the back of their Series T Preferred Share certificate and deliver it, at the latest by 5:00 p.m. (Eastern time) on October 18, 2011, to one of the following addresses of Canadian Stock Transfer Company Inc. (“Canadian Stock Transfer”):
….
Delivery may be done in person, by courier, by registered mail or by mail. However, if share certificates are delivered by courier, by registered mail or by mail, shareholders must ensure that they are sent sufficiently in advance so that they are received by Canadian Stock Transfer by the above-mentioned deadline.

Holders are reminded that their brokers will almost certainly have deadlines that are a day or two prior to the BCE deadline – check well in advance if you intend to convert!

Naturally, the notice for BCE.PR.S, the RatchetRate half of this Strong Pair, specifies the same deadline for those wishing to convert the other way.

It’s too soon to make a recommendation on this – we don’t know the actual rate to which BCE.PR.T will be reset yet! However, as of today the 5-Year GOC rate is 1.45%, so the indicative rate for BCE.PR.T is 3.12%, or $0.78 on its $25 par value, which will – probably, maybe, I think – be preferable to the 3% (100% of Canadian Prime) being paid on BCE.PR.S, since the fraction of prime paid on the latter issue will be reduced if the price goes much above par. It’s a pretty close call though, so watch this space!

September 16, 2011

Friday, September 16th, 2011

Dealbreaker has an entertaining observation regarding the UBS unauthorized losses. After examining the bank’s published VaR calculations:

Oops! UBS’s maximum 95% value-at-risk in the second quarter was 98mm CHF, or around 85mm USD at current exchange rates. So if its returns are normally distributed and that’s a one-tail confidence interval it should have daily losses of over $52mm less than 16% of the time, $85mm less than 5% of the time, $104mm less than 2.3% of the time, $155mm or than 0.14% of the time …

You see where I’m going with this. A $2 billion loss is, um, 38.5 standard deviations. That exploded Excel’s brain but goofier methods suggest that a loss that big should occur about once in 10^324 days. Or the odds of it happening in the history of the universe are one in a googol. Cubed.

They have another thoughtful piece on how the lines between prop-trading and client trading can get blurred:

Perhaps I’m naïve in thinking that this is the circle of life. You’ll certainly see people who believe that the unpleasantness at UBS reveals that financial innovation and complexity should be banned, or that any units of banks with Greek letters in their names should be shut down. My own view is that you can’t really legislate a world where market makers don’t put their capital at risk – that’s what a market maker does. And if you’re willing to tolerate any form of financial complexity, you will have a world where the risks that market makers take are multiform, and where market makers have a lot of “proprietary” discretion to decide which risks to keep and which to hedge. And relying on forms of words like “proprietary trading” and “client facilitation” is not an intelligent way to think about systemic management of those risks.

In the meantime the accused trader has been charged:

Kweku Adoboli, the trader arrested Sept. 15 after UBS AG (UBSN) said it discovered unauthorized trades that caused a $2 billion loss, was charged with fraud and two counts of false accounting dating back to 2008.

The 31-year-old was taken into custody at a magistrates court in London yesterday until Sept. 22, when he can make an application for bail. Adoboli’s false accounting offenses started in October 2008, according to the court charge sheet. He is also charged with fraud dating back to January 2009.

Not an overnight thing!

Jefferson County may have avoided bankruptcy:

Jefferson County, Alabama, commissioners approved a settlement with holders of $3.14 billion of sewer debt to avert what would have been the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history.

The County Commission voted 4-1 today to accept the terms of the agreement, which includes $1.1 billion in concessions from creditors. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), which arranged most of the debt, would take the biggest loss.

The threat of bankruptcy has loomed over Jefferson County, home to Birmingham, Alabama’s biggest city, for more than three years as officials sought to keep sewer fees from ballooning to pay off the debt. The deal hinges on action by the state Legislature, and Commission President David Carrington said bankruptcy is still possible if final terms aren’t agreed on.

The deal calls for three annual sewer-rate increases of 8.2 percent, followed by future annual boosts of no more than 3.25 percent.

BIS has released a working paper by Stephen Cecchetti, Madhusudan Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli titled The real effects of debt:

At moderate levels, debt improves welfare and enhances growth. But high levels can be damaging. When does debt go from good to bad? We address this question using a new dataset that includes the level of government, non-financial corporate and household debt in 18 OECD countries from 1980 to 2010. Our results support the view that, beyond a certain level, debt is a drag on growth. For government debt, the threshold is around 85% of GDP. The immediate implication is that countries with high debt must act quickly and decisively to address their fiscal problems. The longer-term lesson is that, to build the fiscal buffer required to address extraordinary events, governments should keep debt well below the estimated thresholds. Our examination of other types of debt yields similar conclusions. When corporate debt goes beyond 90% of GDP, it becomes a drag on growth. And for household debt, we report a threshold around 85% of GDP, although the impact is very imprecisely estimated.

The OSC released its decision on the Sino-Forest puts:

IT IS ORDERED, pursuant to section 144 of the Act, that the Cease Trade Order is hereby varied solely to permit (a) the holders of outstanding Put Contracts issued and cleared by CDCC to exercise their Put Contracts, whether or not such holder is a person described in paragraph 6(i) or 6(ii); (b) the holders of the Put Contracts to sell common shares of the Issuer under the terms of the Put Contracts; (c) the sellers of such Put Contracts to perform their obligations to purchase common shares of the Issuer under the terms of the Put Contracts; and (d) CDCC and its members to carry out their respective obligations under the Rules of CDCC, including all requisite acts in furtherance of the trades described in (a), (b) and (c), provided that this order shall not apply to permit the sale of Issuer common shares by a person described in paragraph 6(i) who does not currently own common shares, or who is an insider or other person described in paragraph 6(ii), and provided further that the Cease Trade Order shall otherwise remain in effect, unamended except as expressly provided in this order.

It looks to my untrained eye as if it’s illegal to borrow shares to make good delivery. I say the integrity of Canadian capital markets has taken a hit.

It was a modestly good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 10bp, FixedResets up 6bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 2bp. Volatility was low. Volume was extremely low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.5163 % 2,144.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.5163 % 3,225.5
Floater 3.03 % 3.35 % 60,246 18.89 3 -1.5163 % 2,315.6
OpRet 4.81 % 2.47 % 62,302 1.64 8 -0.0819 % 2,461.8
SplitShare 5.36 % 0.58 % 50,594 0.45 4 0.2178 % 2,503.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0819 % 2,251.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.61 % 4.49 % 116,949 1.08 16 0.0995 % 2,118.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.26 % 5.32 % 110,732 14.97 14 0.0983 % 2,261.7
FixedReset 5.15 % 3.11 % 208,160 2.62 59 0.0618 % 2,331.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.04 % 4.58 % 238,585 5.92 46 0.0174 % 2,202.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.A Floater -3.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-16
Maturity Price : 20.71
Evaluated at bid price : 20.71
Bid-YTW : 2.55 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-16
Maturity Price : 22.67
Evaluated at bid price : 23.85
Bid-YTW : 3.63 %
IAG.PR.F Deemed-Retractible 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.00
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
HSB.PR.E FixedReset 63,659 RBC traded 50,000 at 27.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.25
Bid-YTW : 3.14 %
CM.PR.G Perpetual-Premium 46,488 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-16
Maturity Price : 24.81
Evaluated at bid price : 25.11
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 39,393 Nesbitt crossed 25,000 at 23.13.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.06
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
SLF.PR.F FixedReset 31,412 RBC crossed 15,100 at 26.65.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.65
Bid-YTW : 3.44 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset 29,380 RBC crossed 25,000 at 26.02.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.04
Bid-YTW : 2.96 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 25,375 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.86
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
There were 12 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.30 – 23.83
Spot Rate : 0.5300
Average : 0.3707

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-16
Maturity Price : 23.01
Evaluated at bid price : 23.30
Bid-YTW : 5.78 %

SLF.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 26.65 – 26.90
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1803

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.65
Bid-YTW : 3.44 %

FTS.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 25.40 – 25.72
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2571

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-16
Maturity Price : 23.41
Evaluated at bid price : 25.40
Bid-YTW : 2.83 %

SLF.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 25.12 – 25.30
Spot Rate : 0.1800
Average : 0.1297

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.12
Bid-YTW : 3.31 %

PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.98 – 24.15
Spot Rate : 0.1700
Average : 0.1224

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-09-16
Maturity Price : 23.69
Evaluated at bid price : 23.98
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %

MFC.PR.A OpRet Quote: 25.43 – 25.58
Spot Rate : 0.1500
Average : 0.1091

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2015-12-18
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.43
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %

S&P Downgrades CM.PR.D & CM.PR.E One Notch on NVCC

Friday, September 16th, 2011

Standard & Poor’s has announced:

  • CIBC has received confirmation from its regulators establishing two rated hybrid issues as nonviable contingent capital (NVCC) instruments.
  • We’re lowering our ratings on the two CIBC hybrids to ‘BBB+’ from ‘A-‘, reflecting contingent capital triggers as detailed in our contingent capital criteria (see “Related Criteria And Research”).
  • We are affirming our ‘A+/A-1’ counterparty credit ratings on CIBC, and the outlook remains stable.

“The rating action reflects our view that the level of the trigger and the details of the mechanisms for the conversion of NVCCs are critical,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst John Bartko. The Canadian regulator’s (Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, or OSFI) confirmation of treatment of these issues as NVCCs required CIBC to renounce its rights to convert the issues into common shares, except in circumstances considered a trigger event under the OSFI’s NVCC Advisory. The formal designation of these preferred shares as NVCC instruments, in conjunction with relevant OSFI guidance, establishes clear expectations as to circumstances in which the issuer would convert these issues to equity.

“In our opinion, because the conversion would occur at the point of nonviability, and not early enough to preempt nonviability, the formal designation of these instruments as NVCC does not in itself reduce the issuer’s default risk,” said Mr. Bartko. “Instruments with this conversion feature are rated one notch below hybrids that do not have the feature because the instruments would, at nonviability, have a lower ranking in the capital structure. If the issuer moves closer to the trigger point, we could lower the rating further to reflect the increased risk relative to other junior instruments in the issuer’s capital structure.”

The third CM issue to receive NVCC status was CM.PR.G (as reported in August), which is not mentioned in the release. I suspect that this is simply a careless oversight which will soon be corrected. There is also no indication as yet as to whether the downgrade will affect the “National Scale” rating of P-1(low).

I’ve been complaining for a long time – most recently in August – about OSFI’s prediliction for a “low-trigger” conversion rule, which they have never deigned to explain, arrogant idiots that they are. Now the low-trigger is having an observable effect. Thank you OSFI!

Update, 2011-9-17: S&P has updated their on-line rating summaries; the downgrade has not affected the P-1(low) rating on the courser “National Scale”.