PrefBlog

ITG claims that high frequency trading in Canada is becoming less frequent:

“This quarter’s analysis of message traffic data reveals changes in trading behaviour that may signal the begginings of a new regime,” ITG’s analysts wrote. “Improvements in our metric for the quality of order flow, combined with a decline in fleeting orders points to a structural change amongst HFT participants.”

Why are HFTs backing away? Money.

Study author Doug Clark, a managing director at ITG, said that other markets are showing similar trends. That suggests that the business of high-frequency trading is so competitive that some players weren’t making money.

Also, brokerage houses are doing a better job of offering clients algorithms and routers that handle trading in ways that combat high frequency traders and cut their profits.

Zerohedge continues to whine about HFT. Institutional Investor breathlessly tells us of how some “real money” investors’ agents have attempted to remain competitive by the unheard of strategy of getting better at their jobs:

The electronic-trading team at RBC decided to fight back against the problem of “phantom” or “disappearing liquidity,” which they blamed on a subset of high frequency traders using “predatory” tactics. That is how they came up with THOR, a system to help clients such as institutional money managers combat predatory HFT strategies and complete trades at the desired price.

The system has been in use for a year, and Steiner says it has greatly improved liquidity for RBC and its clients — allowing them to execute orders at the desired price.

The real reason behind the fashionability of deprecating HFT can be found in the recent IIAC publication Securities Industry Performance 11Q3:

Even though trading revenue only accounts for about 10% of overall revenue, the severe collapse in net trading revenue of nearly 50% in the year, reflecting substantial losses for equity market-makers, put a significant dent in overall earnings.

The industry’s prop-traders are having their lunch eaten by HFT practitioners who didn’t even go to the right schools! The horror!

Lucas van Praag, world’s greatest corporate spokesman, is leaving Goldman Sachs:

Lucas van Praag, who became one of the public faces of the U.S. financial industry as Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s global head of corporate communications, is leaving the firm after 12 years.

Van Praag, a 62-year-old British citizen, will retire at the end of March and continue to provide strategic advice as a consultant to the company, according to an internal memo signed by Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein and President Gary D. Cohn. The memo’s contents were confirmed by Michael DuVally, a spokesman. Van Praag was promoted to partner, the highest rank in the New York-based company, in 2006.

The Canadian preferred share market resumed its winning ways today, with PerpetualPremiums winning 18bp, FixedResets gaining 9bp and DeemedRetractibles up 18bp. Volatility was good and highly skewed to the upside, with SLF notable among the winners. Volume was average.

PerpetualDiscounts (those few that are left; only four issues from two issuers) now yield 4.80%, equivalent to 6.24% interest at the standard 1.3x equivalency factor. Long corporates now yield a hair under 4.6%, so the pre-tax interest equivalent spread is now about 165bp, a sharp decline from the 190bp reported on February 1.

This looks better than a government programme as a way to address delinquent underwater mortgages:

Banks, accelerating efforts to move troubled mortgages off their books, are offering as much as $35,000 or more in cash to delinquent homeowners to sell their properties for less than they owe.

Lenders have routinely delayed or blocked such transactions, known as short sales, in which they accept less from a buyer than the seller’s outstanding loan. Now banks have decided the deals are faster and less costly than foreclosures, which have slowed in response to regulatory probes of abusive practices. Banks are nudging potential sellers by pre-approving deals, streamlining the closing process, forgoing their right to pursue unpaid debt and in some cases providing large cash incentives, said Bill Fricke, senior credit officer for Moody’s Investors Service in New York.

What’s more, it seems like there is a direct connection with auto loans:

Three years ago, credit was so tight that the owner of a legal firm with a $400,000 salary and a very good credit score of more than 700 couldn’t get financed to buy the car he wanted from Michael Mosser’s dealership.

“The world is upside-down compared to then,” said Mosser, general manager of Chevrolet and Cadillac stores in Ann Arbor, Michigan. “Today, somebody with a 500 credit score, I can get approved and in a Malibu,” which starts at $22,110.

Lenders resisted extending credit to car buyers when the mortgage market collapsed in 2008, helping push General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC into bankruptcy and sending U.S. sales to the lowest point in almost three decades. Amid a slow housing market, auto demand is rebounding, spurring lenders from Bank of America Corp. to Capital One Financial Corp. to approve buyers faster and at better rates to compete for a piece of an expanding market.

Amazingly, another Greek deadline has been missed:

Greek political parties delayed yet again on Tuesday making the tough choice of accepting painful reforms in return for a new international bailout to avoid a chaotic default, seemingly deaf to EU warnings that the eurozone can live without Athens.

With a series of deadlines come and gone, leaders of the three parties in the coalition of Prime Minister Lucas Papademos postponed what was supposed to be a crunch meeting until Wednesday.

S&P affirmed AltaGas, proud issuer of ALA.PR.A:

• AltaGas Ltd. has announced it is acquiring SEMCO Holding Corp., the sole shareholder of SEMCO Holding Corp. from Continental Energy Systems LLC for about C$1.1 billion.
• We are affirming our ratings, including our ‘BBB’ long-term corporate credit rating, on AltaGas.
• In our view, SEMCO has an excellent business risk profile and a highly leveraged financial risk profile.
• We have revised AltaGas’ business risk profile to strong from satisfactory and financial risk profile to significant from aggressive, assuming the transaction closes as expected. The stable outlook reflects our assessment of the company’s business mix, which is increasingly diverse with a greater contribution from fee-based and regulated utility cash flows.

It was another down day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums off 16bp, FixedResets down 14bp and DeemedRetractibles losing 18bp. Volatility was minor. Volume was a little below average.

Bloomberg has an interesting story about the legal snarl of an effective Greek default:

Hedge funds seeking to wring profits from a Greek debt restructuring are underestimating the will of policy makers to impose losses on them, according to investors who say trying to beat the politicians is too risky.
…
European banks own most of the 200 billion euros ($263 billion) of Greek debt held by non-government investors. Hedge funds, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and other “non- regulated investors,” own a further 60 billion euros, according to estimates by Pavan Wadhwa, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s head of global interest-rate strategy.
…
Because hedge funds and other holders could collectively keep the participation rate below that level, Greece has said it may approve legislation that imposes losses on investors who don’t support the voluntary swap by adding a retroactive collective action clause into its bond documentation. Such a provision would give a majority of bondholders the ability to force holdouts to accept the same terms as everyone else.
…
It will be difficult for holdouts to assemble enough votes to block any collective action clause, because European banks have an incentive to support the provision, fund managers said.

A lawsuit against a collective-action clause legislated by the Greek government may also be difficult to win, because it would probably have to be filed in Greece, said a hedge-fund executive whose firm holds the country’s debt and has examined the legal options.

Never play poker with somebody who can change the rules! The question is: will anybody in their right minds ever buy Greek debt again? Or any European’s?

DBRS confirmed GMP.PR.B at Pfd-3(low):

DBRS has confirmed the Pfd-3 (low) rating on the Preferred Share obligations of GMP Capital Inc. (GMP or the Company) with a Stable trend. The rating reflects the strength of the Company’s business franchise as a premier provider of investment banking and capital markets products and services to its targeted market of mid-sized Canadian companies, most of whom operate in the resource and energy sectors. Following the issue of preferred shares in early 2011, the Company’s capitalization has become relatively more aggressive as a result of $66 million in share buybacks completed during the first nine months of 2011. At current levels of financial leverage, the Company’s financial flexibility is somewhat impaired. A continued slump in underwriting and trading activities, which DBRS does not expect to recover in the short to medium term given the weak global economic outlook and continued absence of investor confidence, will prevent a material improvement in this condition in the medium term. Nevertheless, DBRS remains comfortable with the Pfd-3 (low) rating, given the Company’s flexible cost base and its excess regulatory capital at its operating subsidiaries.

The recent run-up in the Canadian preferred share market took a pause today, with PerpetualPremiums down 7bp, FixedResets off 2bp and DeemedRetractibles losing 13bp. Volatility was significant and fairly evenly distributed between asset classes, winners and losers. Volume was average.

Very nice US jobs number today:

The U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly fell in January to the lowest in three years as payrolls climbed more than forecast, casting doubt on the Federal Reserve’s plan to keep interest rates low until late 2014.

The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, the lowest since February 2009, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The 243,000 increase in jobs was the biggest in nine months and exceeded the most optimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Service industries grew by the most in a year, according to a separate report.
…
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.5 percent to 1,344.90 at the close of trading in New York, extending the best start to a year since 1987. The index is up 6.9 percent in 2012. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed to 1.92 percent from 1.82 percent late yesterday.

The median projection in the Bloomberg survey called for payrolls to rise by 140,000. Estimates of the 89 economists ranged from increases of 95,000 to 225,000. Revisions added a total of 60,000 jobs to payrolls in November and December.

The most left wing PM since Trudeau just can’t stop meddling with the economy:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper drew an apparent line in the sand on foreign takeovers on Friday, saying he wanted to see BlackBerry-maker Research In Motion grow “as a Canadian company” and questioning whether hostile takeovers of key domestic firms are in the country’s best interests.
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“Takeovers of critical technology that the government’s invested in, or … hostile takeovers of key Canadian businesses, are obviously something that I think is widely understood is not in this country’s interest,” Mr. Harper said.

Well, it’s been a week and I still don’t see OSFI doing the decent thing and releasing the documents obtained by Bloomberg with a Freedom of Information request:

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney talks about the potential impact of the so-called Volcker rule on the trading of government bonds, the European Central Bank’s efforts to ease the region’s debt crisis and bank capital regulations. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. (Source: Bloomberg)
Attachment: Documents Obtained by Bloomberg. .Canadian lenders are loosening standards, offering mortgages similar to U.S. subprime loans that pose an “emerging risk” to financial institutions, according to the country’s banking regulator.

Banks and other lenders are becoming “increasingly liberal” with mortgages and home-equity credit lines that don’t require individuals to prove their income, according to 152 pages of documents obtained by Bloomberg News under freedom of information law from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. The mortgages, typically granted to the self-employed and recent immigrants, “have some similarities to non-prime loans in the U.S. retail lending market,” the documents show.

But then, you don’t often see OSFI doing the decent thing.

Another very strong day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums winning 33bp (taking the median YTW down to -8.58%), FixedResets gaining 28bp and DeemedRetractibles up 36bp. All fourteen entries on the Performance Highlights table wer winners. Volume continued to be extremely heavy.