PrefBlog

Looks like it will be the Americans getting all the Asian LNG business:

A massive new proposal to export natural gas from Alaska brings a major competitor into the race to carry North American gas to Asia, and adds pressure on Canadian export projects to build quickly or risk losing out.

The Alaska Southcentral LNG project would include construction of a 1,300-kilometre pipeline from Alaskan North Slope gas fields to southern waters, near Valdez or Anchorage, where a new terminal would load liquefied natural gas on to tankers.

Canadian productivity, Canadian schmoductivity. We’ll sell our gas to the US at a discount so they can sell theirs at a premium. Just like oil.

Another flattish day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums off 1bp, FixedResets gaining 2bp and DeemedRetractibles up 1bp. Volatility was muted. Volume was low.

These are great times for American mortgage borrowers, as long as they have jobs and aren’t underwater:

Mortgage prepayment rates have soared to the highest in seven years as homeowners take advantage of the lowest borrowing costs on record to refinance.

Home loans were repaid in August at a pace that would erase 25 percent of the debt in a year, according to Lender Processing Services Inc. (LPS), a Jacksonville, Florida-based data provider that tracks 40 million mortgages.

The cost of 30-year loans dropped to 3.4 percent last week, helping push refinancing applications to a three-year high, after the Federal Reserve said it will buy $40 billion of mortgage securities per month to stimulate the economy. That followed government efforts to increase refinancing with new rules designed to expand eligibility and reduce costs.

If the feds insist on coddling an expensive flag-carrier, Canadians know what to do:

The Conference Board of Canada report says about five million Canadians now cross the U.S. border by land every year to fly out of American airports.

It says higher airfares and fees and taxes in Canada, as well as differences in wages, aircraft prices and industry productivity makes it 30 per cent cheaper to fly out of the U.S.

We want unilateral open-skies, now!

It was a dull day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums up 2bp, FixedResets gaining 1bp and DeemedRetractibles down 4bp. Volatility was average. Volume was average.

PerpetualDiscounts (all four of them! from both issuers!) now yield 4.87%, equivalent to 6.33% interest at the standard conversion factor of 1.3x. Long Corporates now yield 4.2% (!) so the pre-tax interest equivalent spread is now about 215bp, unchanged from the September 26 report.

Just when you thought smart-phone malware had reached a limit…:

As smartphones become more pervasive, they are increasingly targeted by malware. At the same time, each new generation of smartphone features increasingly powerful onboard sensor suites. A new strain of `sensor malware’ has been developing that leverages these sensors to steal information from the physical environment | e.g., researchers have recently demonstrated how malware can `listen’ for spoken credit card numbers through the microphone, or `feel’ keystroke vibrations using the accelerometer. Yet the possibilities of what malware can `see’ through a camera have been understudied.

This paper introduces a novel `visual malware’ called PlaceRaider, which allows remote attackers to engage in remote reconnaissance and what we call virtual theft.” Through completely opportunistic use of the phone’s camera and other sensors, PlaceRaider constructs rich, three dimensional models of indoor environments. Remote burglars can thus `download’ the physical space, study the environment carefully, and steal virtual objects from the environment (such as financial documents, information on computer monitors, and personally identifiable information). Through two human subject studies we demonstrate the effectiveness of using mobile devices as powerful surveillance and virtual theft platforms, and we suggest several possible defenses against visual malware.

This is the source of all concern about high frequency trading:

Wall Street banks’ equities-trading units aren’t getting much relief from the strongest stock rally since 2009, as sinking volume and already thin margins threaten to make their annual performance the worst in six years.

Third-quarter equities-trading revenue probably fell 14 percent from the same period in 2011, the fifth straight drop of more than 8 percent, according to estimates by Kian Abouhossein, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) analyst. Full-year revenue at the five largest U.S. investment banks may be the lowest since 2006, UBS (UBSN) AG’s Brennan Hawken wrote in a Sept. 19 note to clients.

Equities trading, which generated $40 billion for the nine largest global investment banks last year, has been an attractive business because capital requirements aren’t as strict as those threatening fixed-income returns. Lower volumes have damped that optimism as investors remain skeptical about the global economy, which may lead to job cuts.
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Banks’ revenue also is reduced by the continued move to electronic trading, which accounts for as much as 70 percent of transactions on the Nasdaq Stock Market and generates lower margins than voice orders. Institutions pay an average of 2.05 cents per share for orders that require handling compared with 1.08 cents for those entered through algorithms, according to Tabb Group LLC.

It sounds like an oxymoron, but there’s excitment in the indexing world:

MSCI Inc. (MSCI) fell the most on record after being dropped as benchmark provider for 22 index funds by Vanguard Group Inc., the largest U.S. mutual-fund company.

MSCI declined 27 percent to close at $26.21 in New York, the most since it went public in November of 2007, after Vanguard said funds with about $537 billion in assets will replace New York-based MSCI to cut costs for fund shareholders.

Vanguard will adopt benchmarks from FTSE Group for six international stock index funds, and benchmarks developed by the University of Chicago’s Center for Research in Security Prices for 16 U.S. equity and balanced funds. The defection puts pressure on MSCI to lower the licensing fees it charges to BlackRock’s IShares unit, the biggest ETF provider, according to David Nadig, director of research at San Francisco-based ETF research firm IndexUniverse LLC.
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Separately, MSCI disclosed in a regulatory filing today that it received a so-called “Wells Notice” from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, informing the company it will recommend public administrative proceedings for violations of the Investment Advisers Act. A Wells Notice typically gives recipients a chance to dissuade investigators from recommending the agency authorize enforcement action.

The company said in March that an employee had provided information about clients’ proxy voting to a proxy solicitor in violation of its policies, according to the filing.
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BlackRock uses MSCI indexes to guide 197 ETFs with $162 billion in assets, Melissa Garville, a spokeswoman, said in an e-mail.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums gaining 3bp, FixedResets down 8bp and DeemedRetractibles up 2bp. Volatility was muted. Volume was low.

Here’s a good example of why government agencies should not regulate Credit Rating Agencies:

Now, incredibly, Egan-Jones is the sole rater that the SEC has decided to attack. The trouble for the firm started on July 16, 2011, when Egan-Jones downgraded the U.S.’s sovereign debt by one notch, to AA+ from AAA. Egan-Jones cited “the relatively high level of debt and the difficulty in significantly cutting spending.” Two days later, the SEC’s Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations contacted the firm seeking information about its rating decision. (The next month, S&P also downgraded the U.S.’s sovereign debt, but neither Moody’s nor Fitch did.)

Then, on Oct. 12, Egan-Jones received a call from the SEC notifying the firm of a Wells Notice, an indication that it was being investigated. On April 5 of this year, Egan-Jones again downgraded the U.S. sovereign debt, to AA from AA+. On April 19, leaks started emanating from the SEC that it had voted to start an “administrative law proceeding” against the firm. And on April 24, the SEC filed its complaint.

Just what does the SEC object to so vehemently about Egan- Jones? The commission claims that on its 2008 supplemental application to be a “nationally recognized” ratings firm, Egan- Jones “falsely stated” that it had already rated the credit of 150 asset-backed securities and of 50 sovereign-debt issues. The SEC claims Egan-Jones “willfully made these misstatements and omissions to conceal the fact that it had no experience issuing ratings on ABS or government issuers.” The SEC intends to fine Egan-Jones and to possibly censure Sean Egan — neither move would be good for business.
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His lawyer, Alan S. Futerfas, told the Wall Street Journal that the SEC knows that Egan did rate the securities in question but it is “saying he didn’t disseminate it publicly.” Futerfas continued: “It’s a very technical argument the SEC is using; it’s not substantive. There’s nothing in this complaint that suggests or alleges that any rating was without integrity or was not accurate or was not predictive.”

If he is right, that raises a question: Is the SEC retaliating against Egan and his firm for downgrading the U.S. sovereign debt?

Regulation of CRAs inevitably leads to a very tiresome discussion of conspiracy theories. There are certainly problems with “Issuer pays”; “Issuer regulates” is worse.

Is QE3 inflationary? Who cares?

Investors initially increased their inflation expectations on the Fed’s plan. The gap between yields on 10-year notes and same-maturity Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, widened to 2.73 percentage points on Sept. 17, the highest level since May 2006. The so-called break-even rate, which measures how much traders anticipate consumer prices will rise over the life of the debt, narrowed last week to 2.42 percentage points.

In a startling new development, the SEC has hired somebody with a clue:

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, stung by criticism that it lacks the knowledge to analyze the computerized trading that has come to dominate American stock markets, is planning to catch up.

Initiatives to increase the breadth of data received from exchanges and to record orders from origination to execution are at the center of the effort. Gregg Berman, who holds a doctorate in physics from Princeton University, will head the commission’s planned office of analytics and research.
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Berman, who studied experimental and nuclear physics, developed trading strategies in commodities and stocks at a hedge fund and became a founding member of RiskMetrics Group Inc. in 1998 when JPMorgan Chase & Co. spun off the company. He writes programming code and did some of the flash-crash modeling when the SEC examined how trade requests were withdrawn from exchange order books that day.

The analytics and research office plans to hire traders from banks and hedge funds as well as financial engineers and individuals with quantitative and analytical skills. It’s looking for programmers in the C++ computer language and “UNIX gurus who really know how to get under the hood and in former lives may have written trading programs and now are going to write analytical programs,” Berman said.

Traditionalists will be relieved to learn that the new Office of Analytics and Research comes under the Division of Trading and Markets, which is headed by a lawyer.

He also served as counsel to Chairman Schapiro on issues involving the Division of Trading and Markets, including the agency’s analysis and response to the Flash Crash on May 6, 2010, and numerous other market structure and Dodd-Frank related rulemakings, studies, and programs.

Readers will remember that the agency’s response to the Flash Crash was a highly politicized put-up job.

Moody’s believes that the Spanish stress test was insufficiently conservative:

Spain’s banks face a capital shortfall that could climb to 105 billion euros ($135 billion), almost double the estimate the government provided last week, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

The nation’s lenders may need infusions of 70 billion euros to 105 billion euros to absorb losses and still keep capital ratios above thresholds outlined in legislation last year, Moody’s analysts wrote yesterday in a report. That compares with the 53.7 billion euro shortfall found last week after officials commissioned a stress test designed to lift doubts about the financial industry’s ability to withstand losses.

“The recapitalization amounts published by Spain are below what we estimate are needed for Spanish banks to maintain stability in our adverse and highly adverse scenarios,” the analysts, Maria Jose Mori and Alberto Postigo, said in the report. “If market participants are skeptical about the stress test, negative sentiment could undercut the government’s efforts to fully restore confidence in the solvency of Spanish banks.”
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While many assumptions in the stress test were conservative, some may be questioned, Moody’s said. The test used a 6 percent core capital ratio under a stressed scenario, while the ratings firm assumed capital ratios of 8 percent to 10 percent, according to the report. The rate used by Ireland for its test, including a buffer, was 9 percent.

What makes this interesting is that it continues to reflect one of the big problems of the Credit Crunch: bank capital is supposed to ensure that unexpected losses will bankrupt the company only once in 1,000 years (insert jokes about recent experience here).

The confidence level is fixed at 99.9%, i.e. an institution is expected to suffer losses that exceed its level of tier 1 and tier 2 capital on average once in a thousand years. This confidence level might seem rather high. However, Tier 2 does not have the loss absorbing capacity of Tier 1. The high confidence level was also chosen to protect against estimation errors, that might inevitably occur from banks’ internal PD, LGD and EAD estimation, as well as other model uncertainties.

But! In demanding that the banks maintain capital above the regulatory minimum even after experiencing these 1,000-year losses, we are demanding that they remain solvent even after experiencing 1,000 year losses in successive years (which is probably not a million-year two-year-loss; it will depend on the correlation between successive years). I don’t think anybody knows how to deal with this. The concept of a buffer is helpful, but it remains to be seen what will happen to a bank in times of great stress when it has used up its buffer.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums down 4bp, FixedResets gaining 2bp and DeemedRetractibles up 11bp. There weren’t many volatile issues, but they made up in energy what they lacked in numbers. Volume was low.