October 4, 2012

Looks like it will be the Americans getting all the Asian LNG business:

A massive new proposal to export natural gas from Alaska brings a major competitor into the race to carry North American gas to Asia, and adds pressure on Canadian export projects to build quickly or risk losing out.

The Alaska Southcentral LNG project would include construction of a 1,300-kilometre pipeline from Alaskan North Slope gas fields to southern waters, near Valdez or Anchorage, where a new terminal would load liquefied natural gas on to tankers.

Canadian productivity, Canadian schmoductivity. We’ll sell our gas to the US at a discount so they can sell theirs at a premium. Just like oil.

Another flattish day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums off 1bp, FixedResets gaining 2bp and DeemedRetractibles up 1bp. Volatility was muted. Volume was low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4737 % 2,445.3
FixedFloater 4.32 % 3.69 % 34,620 17.86 1 -0.0454 % 3,688.4
Floater 3.00 % 3.01 % 54,770 19.73 3 -0.4737 % 2,640.3
OpRet 4.63 % 2.88 % 60,493 0.69 4 -0.1619 % 2,568.5
SplitShare 5.44 % 5.04 % 73,150 4.54 3 -0.1190 % 2,819.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1619 % 2,348.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.28 % 2.16 % 94,650 0.39 27 -0.0086 % 2,299.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.01 % 4.92 % 54,887 15.52 4 -0.2250 % 2,582.4
FixedReset 4.98 % 2.97 % 187,507 4.01 73 0.0194 % 2,435.8
Deemed-Retractible 4.94 % 3.49 % 120,971 1.57 46 0.0069 % 2,378.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-04
Maturity Price : 17.60
Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Bid-YTW : 3.00 %
ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium -1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-17
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
ENB.PR.P FixedReset 105,407 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-04
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
RY.PR.N FixedReset 96,900 TD crossed 85,000 at 26.52.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.53
Bid-YTW : 2.28 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 77,345 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-04
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 25.11
Bid-YTW : 3.86 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 62,150 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 26.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.15
Bid-YTW : 3.04 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset 51,250 National bought 40,000 from Nesbitt at 25.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : 3.18 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 43,446 TD crossed 15,000 at 26.18. National crossed 25,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.14
Bid-YTW : 2.71 %
There were 22 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium Quote: 26.88 – 28.70
Spot Rate : 1.8200
Average : 1.5558

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-12-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.88
Bid-YTW : 3.91 %

ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 25.06 – 25.45
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2256

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-10-17
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.06
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %

BAM.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 25.20 – 25.58
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2537

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-04
Maturity Price : 23.27
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 3.63 %

BAM.PR.B Floater Quote: 17.60 – 17.87
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1713

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-04
Maturity Price : 17.60
Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Bid-YTW : 3.00 %

TRP.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 25.32 – 25.58
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1802

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-10-04
Maturity Price : 23.44
Evaluated at bid price : 25.32
Bid-YTW : 2.84 %

POW.PR.C Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.66 – 25.95
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2107

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-11-03
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.66
Bid-YTW : -26.18 %

3 Responses to “October 4, 2012”

  1. mpisni says:

    While the two western premiers are embroiled in some silly battle in order to garner political favour at home the US will scoop this opportuntiy leaving Canada with the crumbs. Exporting LNG is the only way out of low prices and allowing these two feuding Premiers to carry on is wrong . Grow up girls and do your job !

  2. Andy S says:

    Huh? The article specifically refers to Canadian projects under development to export LNG to Asia via Kitimat, whereas the Alaskan projects face all kinds of delays and hurdles. And it’s a Canadian company driving the Alaskan project.

    It’s usually a safe assumption that Canadians are behind the Americans, but not in this case.

  3. jiHymas says:

    The Northern Gateway project is deeply enmeshed in regulatory, political and aboriginal problems:

    One of Canada’s most outspoken champions of the oil and gas industry has doubts whether Enbridge will ever build a pipeline to the B.C. coast — even if the $6-billion project gets federal approval.

    Former B.C. energy minister Richard Neufeld, now a Conservative senator, said he strongly supports the construction of pipelines to the B.C. coast so Canada can ship Alberta’s diluted bitumen crude to booming Asian markets.

    True, Northern Gateway is bitumen, not gas. But with LNG, there is also competition from Australia:

    Canada’s bid to export natural gas to Pacific markets should be a slam dunk. British Columbia has giant reserves of gas located relatively near tidewater, and Asia is begging for more of it.

    But the first project in line to export that gas from Canada has faced trouble inking the profitable deals needed to sell its product to foreign buyers, casting a shadow over the tens of billions of dollars in investments proposed for the West Coast.

    In other words, Canadian gas exports are anything but a slam dunk, especially with Australia’s substantial lead to market. It is a global race to sell LNG, said PricewaterhouseCoopers national energy leader Reynold Tetzlaff, and Australia has an important lead.

    “Canada is going to have to work its way into the market,” he said. “If you can’t get the long-term contracts, it’s hard to make these projects economic.”

    I don’t think it matters that a Canadian-domiciled company is part of the Alaska consortium. The plant itself, with 15,000 permanent jobs, will be on US soil, paying US taxes and complying with US regulations. Everything else can be bought and sold at will.

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