Archive for May, 2017

May 4, 2017

Friday, May 5th, 2017

It looks like we’ll be seeing some issuance out of Intact Financial in the near future:

Intact Financial Corporation (TSX:IFC) announced today that it has entered into a definitive agreement and plan of merger pursuant to which it has agreed to acquire OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. (NYSE:OB), a leading US specialty insurer. Under the terms of the all-cash deal, OneBeacon shareholders will receive US$18.10 cash per common share, a 14% premium based on OneBeacon’s closing stock price on the NYSE of US$15.89 as of May 1, 2017 and a 15% premium to the volume weighted average price over the last 30 days. This represents an aggregate cash consideration of approximately US$1.7 billion ($2.3 billion). In addition, OneBeacon debt of approximately US$275 million will remain outstanding. The transaction has been unanimously approved by the Boards of Directors of both companies and is subject to approval by OneBeacon’s shareholders.

Intact intends to finance the acquisition and related transaction expenses using a combination of $700 million of equity financing, approximately $700 million of excess capital and approximately $1.0 billion of financing comprised of bank term loans, medium term notes and preferred shares. Intact has hedged the purchase price against the exposure associated with USD/CAD exchange rate fluctuations. Intact will maintain its strong capital position with an estimated MCT above 200% on closing and expects its debt-to-total capital ratio to return below the target level of 20% within 24 months following the closing of the acquisition.

Meanwhile DBRS is nervous about Home Capital:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today downgraded Home Capital Group Inc.’s (HCG or the Group) Senior Debt rating to CCC from BB and its Short-Term Instruments rating to R-5 from R-4. Additionally, DBRS has downgraded the ratings of Home Trust Company (HTC or the Trust Company), HCG’s primary operating subsidiary, including the Issuer Rating as well as the Deposit and Senior Debt rating to B from BB (high). DBRS has also downgraded the Trust Company’s Short-Term Instruments rating to R-5 from R-4. All ratings remain Under Review with Negative Implications. DBRS has also lowered HTC’s Intrinsic Assessment to B from BB (high).The Support Assessment for HTC remains SA3, which implies no expected systemic support for the Trust Company.

These rating actions reflect DBRS’s concern over recent events, including HCG’s announcement yesterday that it has postponed the release of its Q1 2017 earnings from May 2, 2017 to after market close on May 11, 2017. DBRS considers this delay in announcing results as a negative, especially given that the initial Ontario Securities Commission’s (OSC) hearing regarding the Statement of Allegations made against three former members of HCG’s senior management is scheduled for May 4, 2017. These events are likely to continue to draw unfavourable attention to the Group.

Furthermore, in DBRS’s opinion HTC has not demonstrated an ability to stabilize its funding and liquidity, as accelerated withdrawals of on-demand High Interest Savings Account (HISA) deposits continue. The Group announced that HISA balances had fallen to $391 million as of May 1, 2017, down from $1.4 billion as recently as April 24, 2017. Showing more stability, Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC) deposits stood at $12.86 billion as of April 28, 2017, down from $13.0 billion as of April 24, 2017. DBRS views GICs as more stable since the majority of these deposits are reportedly fixed and non-redeemable ahead of their maturity date.

S&P is also gloomy:

  • •Since our last rating action on April 27, further developments at Home Capital Group Inc. (HCG) have continued to weaken the firm’s franchise position and financial performance, including heightened liquidity risk stemming from accelerated deposit outflows of high-interest savings accounts, as well as elevated operational challenges exacerbated by additional board turnover.
  • •We are therefore lowering our long-term issuer credit ratings on HCG and Home Trust Co. to ‘B-‘ from ‘B+’ and ‘BB’, respectively. At the same time, we are affirming our ‘B’ short-term issuer credit ratings on both companies. We are also lowering our senior unsecured debt rating on Home Trust to ‘B-‘ from ‘BB’.
  • •We are revising the CreditWatch implications to developing from negative. The developing CreditWatch reflects the potential for either a further downgrade on evidence of continued deterioration in HCG’s funding and liquidity profile, weaker-than-expected business performance or further management and leadership flight, or a potential upgrade on evidence of stabilization in the company’s funding profile, effective repositioning of its franchise, and stabilization of its management team.

To me, the big story with the travails of Home Capital is the illustration of the power of the Big Banks:

Many of the big banks are now limiting sales of Home Capital Group’s guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) to their clients. Their reticence calls into question the fate of the $13-billion worth of GICs that Home Capital currently has on its books and will need replacing as they mature. Many of those certificates come due in 2017.

and:

After Home Capital revealed in March it was under investigation by the Ontario Securities Commission over its disclosure practices, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce introduced a cap of $100,000 per client for purchases of Home Capital guaranteed investment certificates (GICs), which is the maximum level covered by Canada’s deposit insurer.

A spokesperson from Royal Bank of Canada said that, “several weeks ago” the bank introduced a $100,000 cap on Home Capital GICs bought through a full-service broker, although there were no limits for purchases through the firm’s discount brokerage.

Late last week, Bank of Nova Scotia said it would stop selling all GICs sold by Home Trust, but said Monday that policy was amended to a limit of $100,000. Bank of Montreal’s brokerage unit also confirmed it has a $100,000 limit on Home Trust GICs but would not say when it went into force.

Several of the banks imposed their GIC caps last week after the OSC unveiled a series of allegations, accusing Home Capital and a number of current and former executives of making “materially misleading statements” to investors.

The OSC news shook investors, but the panic was heightened as news of the banks’ moves to cap investor deposits slowly seeped through Bay Street in subsequent days, raising concerns that major financial institutions were pulling away from Home Capital.

The huge captive sales force and financial system hegemony maintained by the banks makes them a crucial force in the distribution of any financial product. This is one reason why, for instance, trailer fees are at risk of being banned, with an intermediate step of explicit, lengthy disclosure. Only the naïve would imagine that this has anything to do with investor protection; it is all about improving the banks’ competitive position even further. The Joe Blow Equity Fund doesn’t have a lot of salesmen … maybe, if they’re big enough, they have a few guys who chat up the independent distributors and have dinner with important prospects now and then. They can’t have a lot of full timers because they’re a niche product … the average salesman with maybe 100-300 clients simply will not be able to sell enough units of Joe Blow Equity to stay in business. The obvious solution is to pay the salesmen on a piecework basis, i.e. trailer fees. And now the banks, having raised their share of the industry past the critical point, have decided to eliminate this option for their smaller competitors.

Even the mechanics of distribution are subject to the hegemony. The banks own FundSERV and you basically cannot do business as an independent mutual fund producer without being a member of FundSERV. And that is a very expensive proposition … which, of course, works to the advantage of … guess who!

The banks are now doing essentially the same thing with Home Capital GICs, while weeping copious crocodile tears about their need to protect their customers. What a shame that those customers will now be more likely to purchase the Big Banks’ GICs!

Both OSFI and the securities regulators are responsible for this mess. Canadians are currently paying the price for a bloated financial system; and there is a risk that one day the whole concentrated system will come crashing down. Then we will miss the good old days of the fourth quarter of 2008!

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4314 % 2,141.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4314 % 3,929.8
Floater 3.56 % 3.70 % 52,515 18.04 4 -0.4314 % 2,264.7
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 3,028.6
SplitShare 4.70 % 4.34 % 69,535 1.61 5 0.0000 % 3,616.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 2,821.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.31 % -2.43 % 74,134 0.09 22 -0.0479 % 2,783.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.07 % 5.09 % 108,986 15.32 14 -0.0448 % 3,007.4
FixedReset 4.46 % 4.07 % 222,934 6.55 94 -0.4263 % 2,323.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.01 % 4.92 % 139,907 2.67 31 -0.0406 % 2,890.1
FloatingReset 2.51 % 3.04 % 50,853 4.48 10 0.0186 % 2,532.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PF.E FixedReset -1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 21.41
Evaluated at bid price : 21.41
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset -1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 21.88
Evaluated at bid price : 22.42
Bid-YTW : 4.45 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 20.89
Evaluated at bid price : 20.89
Bid-YTW : 3.99 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 22.27
Evaluated at bid price : 22.78
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 21.48
Evaluated at bid price : 21.48
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 21.26
Evaluated at bid price : 21.54
Bid-YTW : 4.06 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 3.99 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 12.85
Evaluated at bid price : 12.85
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 20.97
Evaluated at bid price : 20.97
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 12.86
Evaluated at bid price : 12.86
Bid-YTW : 3.70 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.45
Bid-YTW : 6.01 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 18.60
Evaluated at bid price : 18.60
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
PWF.PR.A Floater 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 14.60
Evaluated at bid price : 14.60
Bid-YTW : 3.23 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
MFC.PR.R FixedReset 135,125 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.94
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 134,196 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.68
Bid-YTW : 6.12 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 78,297 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 21.72
Evaluated at bid price : 22.12
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 76,593 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 16.15
Evaluated at bid price : 16.15
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %
HSB.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 65,750 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-03
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.34
Bid-YTW : -5.90 %
BMO.PR.C FixedReset 53,219 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.71
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
There were 28 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
POW.PR.A Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.62 – 25.86
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1628

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-03
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.62
Bid-YTW : -19.68 %

BNS.PR.Y FixedReset Quote: 22.01 – 22.20
Spot Rate : 0.1900
Average : 0.1226

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.01
Bid-YTW : 4.77 %

BAM.PR.B Floater Quote: 12.85 – 13.07
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1584

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 12.85
Evaluated at bid price : 12.85
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %

BMO.PR.Z Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.55 – 25.79
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1792

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-08-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.55
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %

POW.PR.B Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.23 – 25.42
Spot Rate : 0.1900
Average : 0.1339

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-03
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.23
Bid-YTW : -2.43 %

RY.PR.W Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.05 – 25.24
Spot Rate : 0.1900
Average : 0.1358

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-03
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : -0.80 %

BPO.PR.G Firm On Muted Volume

Thursday, May 4th, 2017

Brookfield Office Properties Inc. has announced:

the completion of its previously announced Preferred Shares, Series GG issue. The offering was underwritten by a syndicate of underwriters led by TD Securities Inc., CIBC Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets and Scotiabank. On April 26, 2017, the syndicate agreed to purchase 10,000,000 Preferred Shares, Series GG at C$25.00 per share and has since exercised its option to purchase an additional 1,000,000 shares at the same offering price.

The Preferred Shares, Series GG will yield 4.85% annually for the initial period ending June 30, 2022. The net proceeds of the issue will be used by Brookfield Office Properties for general corporate purposes which may include the redemption of existing preferred shares.

The Preferred Shares, Series GG will commence trading today on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol BPO.PR.G.

BPO.PR.G is a FixedReset, 4.85%+374M485, announced 2017-04-26. It will be tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

DBRS has assigned a Pfd-3 rating to the issue:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today assigned a rating of Pfd-3 with a Stable trend to the $275 million Class AAA Preference Shares, Series GG (Series GG Preferred Shares) issued by Brookfield Office Properties Inc. (Brookfield).

The Series GG Preferred Shares rank on parity with Brookfield’s existing Class AAA preference shares, junior to Brookfield’s Class A and Class AA preference shares, and in priority to the Company’s Class B preference shares and common shares.

DBRS understands that the net proceeds from the sale of the Series GG Preferred Shares will be used to redeem Brookfield’s Class AAA Preference Shares, Series G and Class AAA Preference Shares, Series J and to repay part of the amounts drawn on the Company’s corporate revolver.

The redemption of BPO.PR.U and of BPO.PR.J noted by DBRS have been reported on PrefBlog.

The issue traded 380,392 shares today in a range of 24.75-95 before closing at 24.92-93. Vital statistics are:

BPO.PR.G FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-04
Maturity Price : 23.12
Evaluated at bid price : 24.92
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %

As previously discussed, I think this issue is expensive, as illustrated by the Implied Volatility analysis:

impvol_bpo_170504
Click for Big

According to me, a price of 23.77 would be appropriate for this issue, given the levels of its peers. But, as also discussed, this depends on my assignment of a zero value to the minimum reset rate guarantee, which is not a universally popular opinion.

May 3, 2017

Thursday, May 4th, 2017

Today’s eagerly awaited non-news was the FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen even as growth in economic activity slowed. Job gains were solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate declined. Household spending rose only modestly, but the fundamentals underpinning the continued growth of consumption remained solid. Business fixed investment firmed. Inflation measured on a 12-month basis recently has been running close to the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective. Excluding energy and food, consumer prices declined in March and inflation continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3/4 to 1 percent.

There was no dissension. Jeanna Smialek and Christopher Condon commented on Bloomberg:

U.S. central bankers were unusually explicit in their statement, indicating that a disappointing first quarter, in which the economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.7 percent, would not knock the committee off its plan to raise rates two more times this year after a hike in March.

“They wanted to send the message,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC in New York. “One quarter of unimpressive growth and one month of weak inflation data is not going to cause them to alter an emerging timeline of a rate hike in June and September with the beginning of balance sheet normalization in December.”

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.09%, equivalent to 6.62% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield a little over 3.65% (!) so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 295bp, a slight (and perhaps spurious) widening from the 290bp reported April 26.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1124 % 2,150.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1124 % 3,946.8
Floater 3.55 % 3.66 % 51,691 18.14 4 -0.1124 % 2,274.6
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1411 % 3,028.6
SplitShare 4.70 % 4.34 % 70,647 1.61 5 0.1411 % 3,616.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1411 % 2,821.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.31 % -2.69 % 75,177 0.09 22 0.1832 % 2,785.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.07 % 5.09 % 105,603 15.32 14 -0.0656 % 3,008.7
FixedReset 4.44 % 4.05 % 225,167 6.57 94 -0.0051 % 2,333.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.00 % 4.87 % 141,854 2.67 31 0.0157 % 2,891.3
FloatingReset 2.51 % 3.08 % 52,633 4.49 10 0.1353 % 2,532.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.A FixedReset -1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-03
Maturity Price : 18.79
Evaluated at bid price : 18.79
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset -1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-03
Maturity Price : 21.45
Evaluated at bid price : 21.80
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %
CU.PR.I FixedReset -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.20
Bid-YTW : 3.31 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-03
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-03
Maturity Price : 23.36
Evaluated at bid price : 23.80
Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.30
Bid-YTW : 8.70 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 106,654 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.63
Bid-YTW : 6.15 %
TD.PF.H FixedReset 92,965 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.26
Bid-YTW : 3.65 %
TD.PF.G FixedReset 80,409 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.05
Bid-YTW : 3.32 %
RY.PR.Q FixedReset 78,271 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.99
Bid-YTW : 3.32 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 71,389 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-03
Maturity Price : 21.27
Evaluated at bid price : 21.27
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 62,175 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-03
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
There were 35 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset Quote: 25.02 – 25.45
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.2668

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.02
Bid-YTW : 2.98 %

PVS.PR.E SplitShare Quote: 26.40 – 26.80
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2718

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-02
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.40
Bid-YTW : -3.32 %

BAM.PF.H FixedReset Quote: 26.17 – 26.60
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.3118

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.17
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %

BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.80 – 24.13
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2203

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-03
Maturity Price : 23.36
Evaluated at bid price : 23.80
Bid-YTW : 5.18 %

EML.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 26.41 – 26.85
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3316

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-17
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.41
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %

TRP.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 23.35 – 23.67
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2164

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-03
Maturity Price : 22.58
Evaluated at bid price : 23.35
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %

CU.PR.C To Reset At 3.40%

Thursday, May 4th, 2017

Canadian Utilities Limited has announced:

that it has notified the registered shareholder of its Cumulative Redeemable Second Preferred Shares Series Y (“Series Y Preferred Shares”) of a conversion privilege and applicable dividend rates. As a result, subject to certain conditions, the holders of Series Y Preferred Shares will have the right to choose one of the following options with regard to their shares:
1.To retain any or all of their Series Y Preferred Shares and continue to receive a fixed rate quarterly dividend; or
2.To convert, on a one-for-one basis, any or all of their Series Y Preferred Shares into Cumulative Redeemable Second Preferred Shares Series Z (“Series Z Preferred Shares”) of Canadian Utilities Limited and receive a floating rate quarterly dividend.

Effective June 1, 2017, the annual dividend rate for the Series Y Preferred Shares is set at 3.40% for the five-year period from and including June 1, 2017 to but excluding June 1, 2022 and the dividend rate for the Series Z Preferred Shares is set at an annual rate of 2.95% for the three-month period commencing June 1, 2017 to but excluding September 1, 2017. The dividend rate for the Series Z Preferred Shares will be reset each quarter. Both rates were calculated according to the terms described in the prospectus supplement of Canadian Utilities Limited dated September 15, 2011.

Beneficial owners of Series Y Preferred Shares who wish to exercise their right of conversion should communicate as soon as possible with their broker or other nominee and ensure that they follow their instructions in order to meet the deadline to exercise such right, which is 3 p.m. (Calgary time) / 5 p.m. (Toronto time) on May 17, 2017. Any notices received after this deadline will not be valid. As such, it is recommended that this be done well in advance of the deadline in order to provide the broker or other intermediary with time to complete the necessary steps.

The foregoing conversions are subject to the conditions that: (i) if Canadian Utilities Limited determines that there would be less than 2,000,000 Series Y Preferred Shares outstanding on June 1, 2017, then all remaining Series Y Preferred Shares will automatically be converted into Series Z Preferred Shares on June 1, 2017, and (ii) alternatively, if Canadian Utilities Limited determines that there would be less than 2,000,000 Series Z Preferred Shares outstanding on June 1, 2017 after giving effect to conversion notices received, no Series Y Preferred Shares will be converted into Series Z Preferred Shares. If either of these scenarios occurs, Canadian Utilities Limited will issue a news release to that effect on or before May 24, 2017.

Holders of the Series Y Preferred Shares and the Series Z Preferred Shares, as applicable, will have the opportunity to convert their shares again on June 1, 2022, and every five years thereafter as long as the shares remain outstanding.

For more information on the terms of, and risks associated with an investment in, the Series Y Preferred Shares and the Series Z Preferred Shares, please see Canadian Utilities Limited’s prospectus supplement dated September 15, 2011, which can be found under Canadian Utilities Limited’s profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.

With approximately 5,400 employees and assets of $19 billion, Canadian Utilities Limited is an ATCO company. ATCO is a diversified global corporation delivering service excellence and innovative business solutions in Structures & Logistics (workforce housing, innovative modular facilities, construction, site support services, and logistics and operations management); Electricity (electricity generation, transmission, and distribution); Pipelines & Liquids (natural gas transmission, distribution and infrastructure development, energy storage, and industrial water solutions); and Retail Energy (electricity and natural gas retail sales). More information can be found at www.canadianutilities.com.

CU.PR.C is a FixedReset 4.00%+240 that commenced trading 2011-9-21 after being announced 2011-9-13. It has been a member of the FixedReset subindex since inception.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., BAM.PR.T and the FloatingReset BAM.PR.W that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_170503
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The market appears to have a distaste at the moment for floating rate product; most of the implied rates until the next interconversion are lower than the current 3-month bill rate and the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are both well below current market rates, at +0.02% and -0.44%, respectively! Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the CU.PR.C FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-to-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset CU.PR.? (received in exchange for CU.PR.C) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 0.50% 0.00% -0.50%
CU.PR.C 22.17 231bp 21.64 21.11 20.58

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to be cheap and trading below the price of their FixedReset counterparts. Therefore, it seems likely that I will recommend that holders of CU.PR.C continue to hold the issue and not to convert, but I will wait until it’s closer to the May 17 notification deadline before making a final pronouncement. I will note that, given the apparent cheapness of the FloatingResets, it may be a good trade to swap the FixedReset for the FloatingReset in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – presumably, according to this analysis – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Thanks to Assiduous Reader KC for ensuring I was aware of this!

REI.PR.C To Be Redeemed

Thursday, May 4th, 2017

RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust has announced:

that it will exercise its right to redeem all of its 5,980,000 outstanding Cumulative Rate Reset Preferred Trust Units, Series C (the “Series C Units”) on June 30, 2017 at the cash redemption price of $25.00 per Series C Unit, for total redemption proceeds of $149.5 million.

The regular quarterly distribution of $0.29375 per Series C Unit for the quarter ending June 30, 2017 (the “Final Distribution”) will be payable to holders of the Series C Units of record on June 30, 2017. Payment of the redemption proceeds and the Final Distribution will be made to CDS & Co., as sole registered holder, on or prior to June 30, 2017. Payment to beneficial holders will be made through the facilities of CDS & Co. on or about July 4, 2017 in respect of the redemption proceeds and July 6, 2017 in respect of the Final Distribution, respectively.

From and after June 30, 2017, the Series C Units will cease to be entitled to distributions and the only remaining rights of holders of such units will be to receive payment of the cash redemption price.

Beneficial holders who are not directly the registered holder of Series C Units should contact the financial institution, broker or other intermediary through which they hold these units to confirm how they will receive their redemption proceeds. Instructions with respect to receipt of the redemption amount will be set out in the redemption notice to be mailed to the registered holder of the Series C Units shortly. Inquiries should be directed to our Registrar and Transfer Agent, CST Trust Company, at 1-800-387-0825 (or in Toronto 416-682-3860).

REI.PR.C is an interest-bearing FixedReset, 4.70%+318, that commenced trading 2011-11-30 after being announced 2011-11-17. It has been a member of the Scraps subindex throughout its existence due to credit concerns.

The spread is very low for a redeemed issue, particularly since it is paying interest rather than dividends, but the company’s intent to redeem has been clear since the shocking redemption of REI.PR.A, which boosted the price of that share by 50%+ on announcement day. While the CFO made a case that the funding was not cost-effective in current conditions (even when having to redeem at par) no case was ever made as to why a tender offering and Normal Course Issuer Bid was ever pursued.

May 2, 2017

Tuesday, May 2nd, 2017

Technology is having its effect! The relative price of services is rising, but the price of ‘stuff’ is falling:

But another form of progress has led to what some economists call the “Walmart effect”: falling prices for a huge array of manufactured goods.

Since the 1980s, for instance, the real price of a midrange color television has plummeted about tenfold, and televisions today are crisper, bigger, lighter and often Internet-connected. Similarly, the effective price of clothing, bicycles, small appliances, processed foods — virtually anything produced in a factory — has followed a downward trajectory. The result is that Americans can buy much more stuff at bargain prices.

Many crucial services, though, remain out of reach for poor families. The costs of a college education and health care have soared.

priceofstuff
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HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0936 % 2,153.3
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0936 % 3,951.2
Floater 3.54 % 3.66 % 47,795 18.14 4 -0.0936 % 2,277.1
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0313 % 3,024.3
SplitShare 4.70 % 4.34 % 71,515 1.61 5 -0.0313 % 3,611.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0313 % 2,818.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.32 % -0.63 % 73,804 0.09 22 -0.1669 % 2,780.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.06 % 5.10 % 105,359 15.31 14 0.0746 % 3,010.7
FixedReset 4.44 % 4.05 % 228,724 6.56 94 -0.3091 % 2,333.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.00 % 4.88 % 142,542 3.50 31 -0.0328 % 2,890.8
FloatingReset 2.52 % 3.07 % 52,023 4.49 10 -0.0885 % 2,528.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IFC.PR.A FixedReset -2.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.77
Bid-YTW : 8.05 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.10
Bid-YTW : 8.88 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-02
Maturity Price : 22.44
Evaluated at bid price : 23.03
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-02
Maturity Price : 21.99
Evaluated at bid price : 22.39
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-02
Maturity Price : 16.55
Evaluated at bid price : 16.55
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-02
Maturity Price : 16.11
Evaluated at bid price : 16.11
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
TRP.PR.K FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.98
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Premium -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.35
Bid-YTW : -10.77 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-02
Maturity Price : 19.13
Evaluated at bid price : 19.13
Bid-YTW : 3.96 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.A FixedReset 183,365 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-02
Maturity Price : 21.34
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
BMO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible 150,150 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.98
Bid-YTW : 3.86 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 79,601 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-02
Maturity Price : 16.11
Evaluated at bid price : 16.11
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 67,018 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-02
Maturity Price : 24.12
Evaluated at bid price : 24.37
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset 56,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.71
Bid-YTW : 3.11 %
BNS.PR.H FixedReset 43,520 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-01-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.37
Bid-YTW : 3.62 %
There were 26 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 21.52 – 21.94
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.2654

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.52
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %

RY.PR.A Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.22 – 25.53
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.1749

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.22
Bid-YTW : -9.26 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 16.55 – 17.03
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.3699

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-02
Maturity Price : 16.55
Evaluated at bid price : 16.55
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %

MFC.PR.J FixedReset Quote: 22.71 – 23.02
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2078

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.71
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %

TRP.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 14.26 – 14.63
Spot Rate : 0.3700
Average : 0.2758

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-02
Maturity Price : 14.26
Evaluated at bid price : 14.26
Bid-YTW : 4.06 %

PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.35 – 25.65
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2066

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.35
Bid-YTW : -10.77 %

May 1, 2017

Monday, May 1st, 2017
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3004 % 2,155.3
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3004 % 3,955.0
Floater 3.54 % 3.65 % 47,544 18.17 4 0.3004 % 2,279.3
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1174 % 3,025.3
SplitShare 4.70 % 4.39 % 72,259 1.62 5 -0.1174 % 3,612.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1174 % 2,818.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.31 % -4.24 % 73,898 0.09 22 0.1244 % 2,784.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.07 % 5.12 % 104,723 15.30 14 0.2093 % 3,008.5
FixedReset 4.42 % 4.00 % 229,561 6.57 94 -0.0977 % 2,340.3
Deemed-Retractible 5.00 % 4.86 % 144,054 2.68 31 0.0787 % 2,891.8
FloatingReset 2.51 % 3.07 % 51,279 4.49 10 -0.1721 % 2,531.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BMO.PR.T FixedReset -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-01
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-01
Maturity Price : 24.23
Evaluated at bid price : 24.52
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset -1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-01
Maturity Price : 21.45
Evaluated at bid price : 21.80
Bid-YTW : 3.91 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-01
Maturity Price : 22.53
Evaluated at bid price : 23.22
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 6.97 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.42
Bid-YTW : 8.58 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-01
Maturity Price : 22.72
Evaluated at bid price : 23.41
Bid-YTW : 4.50 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.R FixedReset 63,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.10
Bid-YTW : 3.33 %
BMO.PR.C FixedReset 48,780 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.72
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
RY.PR.Q FixedReset 48,136 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.08
Bid-YTW : 3.22 %
BMO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible 23,294 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.98
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 19,110 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-01
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 15,050 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-01
Maturity Price : 21.46
Evaluated at bid price : 21.81
Bid-YTW : 3.78 %
There were 10 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PF.H FixedReset Quote: 26.10 – 26.44
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2067

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.10
Bid-YTW : 3.85 %

BAM.PF.I FixedReset Quote: 26.10 – 26.48
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2481

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.10
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %

BAM.PR.Z FixedReset Quote: 22.50 – 22.90
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2988

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-01
Maturity Price : 21.95
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %

POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.52 – 24.80
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1937

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-01
Maturity Price : 24.23
Evaluated at bid price : 24.52
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %

BAM.PF.B FixedReset Quote: 21.79 – 22.08
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2135

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-05-01
Maturity Price : 21.45
Evaluated at bid price : 21.79
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %

EIT.PR.A SplitShare Quote: 25.60 – 25.80
Spot Rate : 0.2000
Average : 0.1363

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2024-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %

PPL Offers to Assume VSN Preferreds on Takeover

Monday, May 1st, 2017

Pembina Pipelines and Veresen have announced:

they have entered into an arrangement agreement to create one of the largest energy infrastructure companies in Canada with a pro-forma enterprise value of approximately $33 billion (the “Transaction”).

Under the terms of the arrangement agreement, Pembina is offering to acquire all the issued and outstanding shares of Veresen by way of a plan of arrangement under the Business Corporations Act (Alberta). The Transaction is valued at approximately $9.7 billion including the assumption of Veresen’s debt (including subsidiary debt) and preferred shares.

Pembina is offering to acquire all of the outstanding Veresen common shares in exchange for either (i) 0.4287 of a common share of Pembina or (ii) $18.65 in cash, subject to pro-ration based on maximum share consideration of approximately 99.5 million Pembina common shares and maximum cash consideration of approximately $1.523 billion. Assuming full pro-ration, each Veresen shareholder would receive $4.8494 in cash and 0.3172 of a common share of Pembina for each Veresen common share.

Furthermore, Veresen will be seeking approval of holders of outstanding Veresen preferred shares to effect the exchange of such shares for Pembina preferred shares with the same terms and conditions as the outstanding Veresen preferred shares. For such exchange to occur at closing of the Transaction, approval of at least 662/3 percent of holders of Veresen’s preferred shares is required, voting as one class, represented in person or by proxy at a special meeting of Veresen preferred shareholders to be called to consider the Transaction. Closing of the Transaction is not conditional on the approval of the holders of Veresen’s preferred shares.

The cash consideration associated with the Transaction will be initially funded through the company’s $2.5 billion unsecured credit facility. Subsequently, Pembina expects to refinance this with a combination of internally generated cash flows and the issuance of Medium Term Notes and preferred shares.

In addition, a special meeting of the holders of preferred shares of Veresen will be called to approve the Transaction. If the holders of Veresen preferred shares, voting together as a single class, approve the Transaction, each preferred share of Veresen would be exchanged, on a one for one basis, for a new preferred share of Pembina having the same terms and conditions as the Veresen preferred shares. Completion of the Transaction is not conditional upon the approval of the Transaction by holders of Veresen’s preferred shares.

If the holders of Veresen’s preferred shares do not approve the Transaction, voting as a single class but separate from common shares, the Veresen preferred shares will remain outstanding following completion of the Transaction.

DBRS immediately gave its blessing to the transaction:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today confirmed the Issuer Rating and Senior Unsecured Notes rating of Pembina Pipeline Corporation (Pembina or the Company) at BBB and the Company’s Preferred Shares at Pfd-3. All trends remain Stable. The confirmations follow Pembina’s announcement that it has entered into an agreement to acquire Veresen Inc. (Veresen) for $9.7 billion, including the assumption of Veresen’s debt (the Acquisition or the Transaction). The confirmations reflect DBRS’s expectation that the Acquisition would not have a material impact on the Company’s current credit profile. On March 3, 2017, DBRS confirmed all of Pembina’s ratings with Stable trends reflecting its solid financial performance in 2016 and the continued improvement of its business risk profile. Veresen was rated BBB by DBRS. However, On August 4, 2016, DBRS placed the ratings of Veresen Under Review with Negative Implications pending the completion of the sales of its power generation assets.

With respect to the potential impact of the Acquisition on Pembina’s financial risk profile, DBRS has reviewed Pembina’s financing plan and performed a pro forma analysis and is of the view that the Acquisition would modestly weaken Pembina’s credit metrics in the near term but would not have a material impact over the medium term.

DBRS later added:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) today notes that Veresen Inc. (Veresen or the Company; BBB, Under Review with Negative Implications) and Pembina Pipeline Corporation (Pembina; rated BBB, Stable trend) have announced that they have agreed to combine to create one of the largest energy infrastructure companies in Canada (the Transaction). Under the Transaction, valued at approximately $9.7 billion, including the assumption of Veresen’s debt (including subsidiary debt) and preferred shares, Pembina has offered to acquire all the issued and outstanding shares of Veresen. The Transaction is subject to approval by Veresen’s common shareholders, as well as regulatory approvals, and is expected to close late in the third quarter or early Q4 2017.

DBRS placed Veresen’s ratings Under Review with Negative Implications following the Company’s announcement that it would sell its power generation business. Please refer to the DBRS press releases “DBRS Places Veresen Inc.’s Ratings Under Review with Negative Implications,” dated August 4, 2016, and “DBRS Comments on Veresen’s Sale of Power Business,” dated February 21, 2017. Today’s announcement does not have an immediate impact on the credit profile of Veresen as the Transaction is expected to close later this year. Consequently, DBRS is maintaining the Under Review with Negative Implications status on Veresen’s ratings. DBRS will review the Under Review with Negative Implications status after the sale of Veresen’s remaining power assets has closed in Q2 2017 and as more details become available with respect to the Transaction.

Veresen preferred shares immediately leapt upwards, although early gains did not hold, as illustrated by this chart of the day’s trading in VSN.PR.A:

vsnpra_170501
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VSN.PR.E saw very heavy trading (368,192 shares) but simply rose to a modest premium over par and stayed there.

The price movement left the PPL and VSN preferreds trading as equivalents:

impvol_ppl_170501
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The results of this Implied Volatility analysis are a little puzzling. The near-par price for an issue with a spread of 427bp (VSN.PR.E) does not seem unreasonable in light of last week’s issuance of BPO FixedReset 4.85%+374M485 and EFN FixedReset 5.75%+464M575, but the Implied Volatility of 39% is ludicrously high; much higher than can be expected even assuming a huge market appetite for low-spread issues (in anticipation of GOC-5 yields). Thus, I would expect the higher-spread issues to outperform the lower spread issues over the next … period. (Predictions are one thing – predictions with a time frame are quite another!).

Affected issues are VSN.PR.A, VSN.PR.C and VSN.PR.E.

Outstanding PPL issues are PPL.PR.A, PPL.PR.C, PPL.PR.E, PPL.PR.G, PPL.PR.I, PPL.PR.K and PPL.PR.M.