Issue Comments

TD Upgraded to Pfd-2(high) by DBRS

DBRS has announced that it:

upgraded the long-term ratings of The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD or the Bank) and its related entities, including TD’s Long-Term Issuer Rating to AA (high) from AA. The Bank’s Short-Term Issuer Rating is confirmed at R-1 (high). The trend on all ratings is now Stable. TD’s Long-Term Issuer Rating is composed of an Intrinsic Assessment (IA) of AA and a Support Assessment (SA) of SA2, which reflects the expectation of timely systemic support from the Government of Canada (rated AAA with a Stable trend by DBRS). The SA2 designation results in a one-notch uplift to the Long-Term Issuer Rating. Under the new Canadian Bank Recapitalization Regime, DBRS expects to eventually remove the uplift from systemic support once the Bank has issued a sufficient level of bail-inable senior debt, which would thereby provide an adequate buffer for non-bail-inable obligations and is then expected to offset the removal of systemic support.

KEY RATING CONSIDERATIONS
The upgrade of TD’s long-term ratings recognizes the Bank’s improving fundamentals and franchise, including a growing level of earnings in the United States and ongoing strong performance in Canada, as the Bank continues to execute on its lower-risk strategy. DBRS views TD as consistently outperforming most global banks, and the Bank’s upgraded IA is now in line with a few highly regarded U.S. peers. The U.S. retail bank now represents over one-third of the Group’s earnings, which contributes to TD’s geographic diversity. Indeed, the Canadian and U.S. retail operations generate more than 80% of TD’s adjusted net income, providing considerable earnings stability, which is a key factor underpinning the ratings. DBRS notes that the performance of the U.S. franchise has vastly improved as the Bank has built its asset generation capabilities, and it has realized the benefit from margin expansion and lower corporate taxes following U.S. tax reform. However, while historically a source of lower credit risk, TD’s focus on retail lending in Canada, where the consumer is highly levered, makes it somewhat more exposed to a potential downturn in Canada. At present, TD is less exposed (as a percentage of earnings) to capital markets businesses compared with the other large Canadian banks. However, TD is investing to build out its capital markets capabilities, particularly in the United States, which could potentially expose the Bank to greater earnings volatility.

The affected issues are all NVCC-compliant: TD.PF.A, TD.PF.B, TD.PF.C, TD.PF.D, TD.PR.E, TD.PF.F, TD.PF.G, TD.PF.H, TD.PF.I, TD.PF.J, TD.PF.K, TD.PF.L and the new issue.

Update, 2019-5-31: DBRS corrected an error regarding TD’s subordinated debt.

Market Action

May 29, 2019

The BoC continued to hold today:

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

Recent Canadian economic data are in line with the projections in the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with accumulating evidence that the slowdown in late 2018 and early 2019 is being followed by a pickup starting in the second quarter. The oil sector is beginning to recover as production increases and prices remain above recent lows. Meanwhile, housing market indicators point to a more stable national market, albeit with continued weakness in some regions.

Continued strong job growth suggests that businesses see the weakness in the past two quarters as temporary. Recent data support a pickup in both consumer spending and exports in the second quarter, and it appears that overall growth in business investment has firmed. That said, inventories rose sharply in the first quarter, which may dampen production growth in coming months.

The global economy is also evolving largely as expected since April, although the recent escalation of trade conflicts is heightening uncertainty about economic prospects. In addition, trade restrictions introduced by China are having direct effects on Canadian exports. In contrast, the removal of steel and aluminum tariffs and increasing prospects for the ratification of CUSMA will have positive implications for Canadian exports and investment.

Inflation has evolved in line with the Bank’s April projection. The Bank expects CPI inflation to remain around the 2 per cent target in the coming months. Core inflation measures all remain close to 2 per cent.

Overall, recent data have reinforced Governing Council’s view that the slowdown in late 2018 and early 2019 was temporary, although global trade risks have increased. In this context, the degree of accommodation being provided by the current policy interest rate remains appropriate. In taking future policy decisions, Governing Council will remain data dependent and especially attentive to developments in household spending, oil markets and the global trade environment.

It’s too bad that the names of those voting in favour of the hold were not released and neither were the names and summarized rationales for those voting against. Only confident Central Banks with committees comprised of stellar people who can make a living doing something else publish such information.

The “global trade risks” mentioned in the final paragraph were blamed for today’s horrible equity performance:

Fears that an escalating trade war between the United States and China will slash global economic growth pulled world stock markets down to near two-and-a-half-month lows on Wednesday and continued to feed a rally in safe-haven government bonds.

German bond yields fell deeper into negative territory and inched toward record lows of minus 0.2 per cent. Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields dropped to 20-month lows, having fallen almost 30 basis points this month.

Chinese newspapers warned on Wednesday that Beijing could use rare earths to strike back at the United States after U.S. President Donald Trump remarked he was “not yet ready” to make a deal with China over trade. China was the source of 80 per cent of the rare earths imported by the United States between 2014 and 2017.

The prospect of a prolonged standoff between the world’s two biggest economies and the likelihood of Europe and Japan getting dragged in have raised investor concerns about global growth.

Canada’s main stock index fell on Wednesday as the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady as expected.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX Composite index was unofficially down 165.99 points, or 1.02 per cent, at 16,131.47

On a brighter note, Candeal reported the 5-Year Canada yield unchanged at 1.47% today.

DBRS has been sold to Morningstar:

Canadian debt rating agency DBRS Ltd. is falling into the hands of U.S. investment research firm Morningstar Inc., marking its second ownership change in five years and the largest deal in Morningstar’s history.

Founded by Canadian Walter Schroeder and based in Toronto, DBRS was first sold in 2014 to two private equity firms, Carlyle Group and Warburg Pincus, for a reported US$500-million. Five years later, the private equity owners are selling DBRS to Morningstar for US$669-million.

Returns for the two private equity firms were not disclosed, and the sale price does not include any dividends that DBRS may have paid out over the past five years.

Carlyle and Warburg Pincus both declined to comment.

The Bank of Nova Scotia is redeeming some expensive Tier 1 Capital:

Scotiabank (BNS: TSX, NYSE) today announced that Scotiabank Tier 1 Trust, a closed-end trust wholly owned by The Bank of Nova Scotia, intends to redeem all outstanding 7.802% Scotiabank Tier 1 Securities – Series 2009-1 due June 30, 2108 (the “Scotia BaTS III Series 2009-1”) for 100% of their principal amount, together with accrued and unpaid interest to the redemption date. The redemption will occur on June 30, 2019. Formal notice will be delivered to Scotia BaTS III Series 2009-1 holders in accordance with the terms of the offering.

Scotia BaTS III Series 2009-1 constitute Additional Tier 1 capital of the Bank. The principal amount of Scotia BaTS III Series 2009-1 is currently $650,000,000. The redemption of the Scotia BaTS III Series 2009-1 will be financed out of the general funds of Scotiabank Tier 1 Trust.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.48%, equivalent to 7.12% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield 3.66%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 345bp, a slight (and perhaps spurious) widening from the 340bp reported May 22.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3328 % 2,036.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3328 % 3,736.2
Floater 5.77 % 6.11 % 55,116 13.64 3 -0.3328 % 2,153.2
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0171 % 3,306.2
SplitShare 4.70 % 4.70 % 77,215 4.27 7 -0.0171 % 3,948.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0171 % 3,080.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.54 % 4.91 % 84,270 1.81 12 0.0132 % 2,946.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.45 % 5.48 % 73,854 14.65 20 -0.0684 % 3,097.9
FixedReset Disc 5.43 % 5.50 % 151,928 14.68 63 -0.9017 % 2,112.5
Deemed-Retractible 5.23 % 5.87 % 97,023 8.00 27 0.0744 % 3,083.7
FloatingReset 4.00 % 4.44 % 46,665 2.56 4 -0.4504 % 2,390.8
FixedReset Prem 5.13 % 3.97 % 228,376 2.11 21 -0.0595 % 2,580.3
FixedReset Bank Non 1.98 % 4.06 % 138,893 2.58 3 -0.2501 % 2,641.6
FixedReset Ins Non 5.18 % 7.05 % 104,500 8.19 22 -0.6827 % 2,196.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
SLF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non -4.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.17
Bid-YTW : 7.26 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc -2.98 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc -2.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 14.80
Evaluated at bid price : 14.80
Bid-YTW : 6.36 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset Disc -2.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 19.28
Evaluated at bid price : 19.28
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %
NA.PR.G FixedReset Disc -2.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 20.76
Evaluated at bid price : 20.76
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc -2.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 19.57
Evaluated at bid price : 19.57
Bid-YTW : 5.42 %
CM.PR.S FixedReset Disc -2.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 19.45
Evaluated at bid price : 19.45
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset Disc -2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 15.05
Evaluated at bid price : 15.05
Bid-YTW : 6.35 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non -2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.79
Bid-YTW : 7.19 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non -2.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.31
Bid-YTW : 8.18 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -2.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.05
Bid-YTW : 9.43 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset Disc -2.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 16.20
Evaluated at bid price : 16.20
Bid-YTW : 6.41 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset Disc -1.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 20.52
Evaluated at bid price : 20.52
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset Disc -1.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 20.85
Evaluated at bid price : 20.85
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
NA.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 19.25
Evaluated at bid price : 19.25
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc -1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 19.27
Evaluated at bid price : 19.27
Bid-YTW : 5.33 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset Disc -1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 17.78
Evaluated at bid price : 17.78
Bid-YTW : 6.25 %
TD.PF.I FixedReset Disc -1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 21.87
Evaluated at bid price : 22.20
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc -1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 17.75
Evaluated at bid price : 17.75
Bid-YTW : 5.34 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset Disc -1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 17.77
Evaluated at bid price : 17.77
Bid-YTW : 6.24 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 17.88
Evaluated at bid price : 17.88
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 17.71
Evaluated at bid price : 17.71
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset Prem -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 17.77
Evaluated at bid price : 17.77
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset Ins Non -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.14
Bid-YTW : 6.99 %
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %
EMA.PR.F FixedReset Disc -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 17.90
Evaluated at bid price : 17.90
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
BIP.PR.F FixedReset Disc -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 20.60
Evaluated at bid price : 20.60
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %
BMO.PR.D FixedReset Disc -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 21.42
Evaluated at bid price : 21.76
Bid-YTW : 5.33 %
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 23.85
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 11.38
Evaluated at bid price : 11.38
Bid-YTW : 6.18 %
BIP.PR.D FixedReset Disc -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 22.33
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 5.81 %
CM.PR.R FixedReset Disc -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 21.75
Evaluated at bid price : 22.01
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset Disc -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 17.80
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
BMO.PR.C FixedReset Disc -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 22.62
Evaluated at bid price : 23.30
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 16.50
Evaluated at bid price : 16.50
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
IFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.41
Bid-YTW : 7.05 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 20.48
Evaluated at bid price : 20.48
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %
EIT.PR.B SplitShare 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 17.80
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 6.63 %
BIK.PR.A FixedReset Prem 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.85
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset Disc 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 19.54
Evaluated at bid price : 19.54
Bid-YTW : 6.51 %
IAF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.03
Bid-YTW : 6.16 %
GWO.PR.S Deemed-Retractible 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset Disc 1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 18.55
Evaluated at bid price : 18.55
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset Disc 2.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 19.65
Evaluated at bid price : 19.65
Bid-YTW : 6.53 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Disc 170,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 11.86
Evaluated at bid price : 11.86
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 160,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 22.31
Evaluated at bid price : 22.66
Bid-YTW : 5.42 %
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 111,260 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 23.85
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset Disc 106,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 12.84
Evaluated at bid price : 12.84
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %
BMO.PR.F FixedReset Prem 73,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc 48,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 17.80
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 6.63 %
There were 34 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
SLF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 19.17 – 19.95
Spot Rate : 0.7800
Average : 0.4711

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.17
Bid-YTW : 7.26 %

NA.PR.G FixedReset Disc Quote: 20.76 – 21.34
Spot Rate : 0.5800
Average : 0.3969

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 20.76
Evaluated at bid price : 20.76
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %

PWF.PR.A Floater Quote: 13.06 – 13.62
Spot Rate : 0.5600
Average : 0.4182

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 13.06
Evaluated at bid price : 13.06
Bid-YTW : 5.34 %

BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc Quote: 14.80 – 15.16
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2435

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 14.80
Evaluated at bid price : 14.80
Bid-YTW : 6.36 %

SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 14.05 – 14.46
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.3076

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.05
Bid-YTW : 9.43 %

CU.PR.C FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.60 – 17.99
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2925

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-29
Maturity Price : 17.60
Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %

Issue Comments

MFC.PR.L : Convert or Hold?

It will be recalled that MFC.PR.L will reset At 3.78600% effective June 20, 2019.

MFC.PR.L is a FixedReset, 3.90%+216, that commenced trading 2014-2-25 after being announced 2014-2-18. The extension was announced 2019-5-7. As it is issued by an Insurance Holding Company and is not compliant with the banks’ NVCC rules, I have added a “Deemed Maturity” entry to the call schedule, which was adjusted in December 2018 to 2030-1-31, at 25.00. MFC.PR.L is tracked by HIMIPref™ and assigned to the FixedReset – Insurance Non-NVCC subindex.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., MFC.PR.L and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_190529
Click for Big

The market appears to have lost its fleeting interest in floating rate product, although it may be picking up again; the implied rates until the next interconversion are above the current 3-month bill rate as the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are at +1.27% and +1.29%, respectively. Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the MFC.PR.L FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset (received in exchange for MFC.PR.L) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 2.00% 1.50% 1.00%
MFC.PR.L 17.15 216bp 17.52 17.03 16.53

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to trade close to the price of their FixedReset counterparts, MFC.PR.L. Therefore, I recommend that holders of MFC.PR.L determine whether or not to convert based on their own portfolio considerations and forecast for policy rates. I will note that once the FloatingResets commence trading (if, in fact, they do) it may be a good trade to swap one issue for the other in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – hopefully – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Those who wish to convert are advised that the deadline for notifying the company of such a desire is 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on June 4, 2019. Brokers and other intermediaries generally set their internal deadlines a day or two in advance of this date, so if you wish to convert there’s no time to waste! Note that brokers will, in general, try to execute the instruction on a ‘best efforts’ basis if received between the two deadlines, provided that the procrastinating shareholder grovels entertainingly enough.

Market Action

May 28, 2019

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.6098 % 2,042.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.6098 % 3,748.7
Floater 5.75 % 6.10 % 53,780 13.66 3 -1.6098 % 2,160.4
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0741 % 3,306.8
SplitShare 4.70 % 4.71 % 78,060 4.27 7 0.0741 % 3,949.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0741 % 3,081.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.54 % 4.93 % 83,517 1.81 12 -0.1352 % 2,946.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.44 % 5.48 % 72,316 14.65 20 -0.1367 % 3,100.0
FixedReset Disc 5.39 % 5.43 % 151,171 14.81 63 -0.4282 % 2,131.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.23 % 5.89 % 96,312 8.00 27 0.0544 % 3,081.4
FloatingReset 3.99 % 4.43 % 48,400 2.56 4 -0.3167 % 2,401.6
FixedReset Prem 5.12 % 3.85 % 229,531 2.08 21 -0.0390 % 2,581.8
FixedReset Bank Non 1.98 % 4.01 % 140,313 2.58 3 0.0695 % 2,648.3
FixedReset Ins Non 5.14 % 6.91 % 104,608 8.20 22 -0.5643 % 2,211.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.F FixedReset Ins Non -3.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.17
Bid-YTW : 10.07 %
PWF.PR.A Floater -2.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 13.04
Evaluated at bid price : 13.04
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -2.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.35
Bid-YTW : 9.17 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 9.38 %
IAF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -2.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.07
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non -1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.55
Bid-YTW : 8.27 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc -1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 13.51
Evaluated at bid price : 13.51
Bid-YTW : 6.01 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset Disc -1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 18.03
Evaluated at bid price : 18.03
Bid-YTW : 6.15 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc -1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 19.79
Evaluated at bid price : 19.79
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %
NA.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 19.60
Evaluated at bid price : 19.60
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
EMA.PR.H FixedReset Disc -1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 22.51
Evaluated at bid price : 23.34
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %
NA.PR.G FixedReset Disc -1.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.35
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc -1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 17.51
Evaluated at bid price : 17.51
Bid-YTW : 5.52 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset Disc -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
EMA.PR.F FixedReset Disc -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 18.13
Evaluated at bid price : 18.13
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
BIK.PR.A FixedReset Prem -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.55
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 11.50
Evaluated at bid price : 11.50
Bid-YTW : 6.11 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset Disc -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 19.25
Evaluated at bid price : 19.25
Bid-YTW : 5.97 %
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 21.27
Evaluated at bid price : 21.27
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset Disc -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 18.28
Evaluated at bid price : 18.28
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Disc -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 11.86
Evaluated at bid price : 11.86
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 14.60
Evaluated at bid price : 14.60
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 11.52
Evaluated at bid price : 11.52
Bid-YTW : 6.10 %
IFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.62
Bid-YTW : 6.92 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.97
Bid-YTW : 6.96 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset Ins Non -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 6.83 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset Disc -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 16.53
Evaluated at bid price : 16.53
Bid-YTW : 6.27 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset Disc 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 12.18
Evaluated at bid price : 12.18
Bid-YTW : 6.52 %
CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.46
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset Disc 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 19.30
Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.G FixedReset Disc 121,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 18.85
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
TD.PF.L FixedReset Prem 112,106 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 23.16
Evaluated at bid price : 24.99
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc 73,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 21.27
Evaluated at bid price : 21.27
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible 59,275 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.11
Bid-YTW : 6.69 %
PWF.PR.A Floater 54,922 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 13.04
Evaluated at bid price : 13.04
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 54,643 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.85
Bid-YTW : 6.63 %
There were 41 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.F FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 13.17 – 13.64
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.3303

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.17
Bid-YTW : 10.07 %

NA.PR.S FixedReset Disc Quote: 18.00 – 18.44
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3082

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 5.52 %

BIP.PR.A FixedReset Disc Quote: 20.00 – 20.48
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.3485

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 20.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 6.40 %

PWF.PR.T FixedReset Disc Quote: 18.28 – 18.70
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.2931

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 18.28
Evaluated at bid price : 18.28
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %

BAM.PF.A FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.80 – 20.34
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.4160

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 19.80
Evaluated at bid price : 19.80
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %

POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.00 – 25.35
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2514

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-28
Maturity Price : 24.63
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %

Market Action

May 27, 2019

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0546 % 2,076.4
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0546 % 3,810.0
Floater 5.66 % 6.03 % 52,495 13.77 3 0.0546 % 2,195.7
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1252 % 3,304.3
SplitShare 4.71 % 4.79 % 78,758 4.28 7 -0.1252 % 3,946.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1252 % 3,078.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.53 % 4.93 % 82,529 1.77 12 0.0594 % 2,950.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.44 % 5.46 % 72,784 14.68 20 0.2055 % 3,104.3
FixedReset Disc 5.36 % 5.40 % 147,938 14.88 63 -0.9582 % 2,140.9
Deemed-Retractible 5.23 % 5.88 % 91,822 8.01 27 0.0221 % 3,079.7
FloatingReset 3.96 % 4.43 % 45,462 2.57 4 -0.2425 % 2,409.3
FixedReset Prem 5.12 % 4.02 % 229,079 2.08 21 -0.0613 % 2,582.8
FixedReset Bank Non 1.98 % 4.01 % 142,135 2.59 3 -0.0834 % 2,646.4
FixedReset Ins Non 5.11 % 6.78 % 102,997 8.21 22 -0.4361 % 2,223.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
NA.PR.S FixedReset Disc -3.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 17.88
Evaluated at bid price : 17.88
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc -3.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 6.74 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset Disc -2.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 12.05
Evaluated at bid price : 12.05
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset Disc -2.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 19.03
Evaluated at bid price : 19.03
Bid-YTW : 6.74 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset Disc -2.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 16.91
Evaluated at bid price : 16.91
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc -2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 19.76
Evaluated at bid price : 19.76
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset Disc -2.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 18.20
Evaluated at bid price : 18.20
Bid-YTW : 6.11 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc -2.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 17.37
Evaluated at bid price : 17.37
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Disc -2.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 21.38
Evaluated at bid price : 21.69
Bid-YTW : 5.02 %
EMA.PR.F FixedReset Disc -2.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 18.38
Evaluated at bid price : 18.38
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc -1.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 17.48
Evaluated at bid price : 17.48
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset Disc -1.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 19.03
Evaluated at bid price : 19.03
Bid-YTW : 6.69 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc -1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 18.02
Evaluated at bid price : 18.02
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset Disc -1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 18.35
Evaluated at bid price : 18.35
Bid-YTW : 6.04 %
BMO.PR.D FixedReset Disc -1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 21.85
Evaluated at bid price : 22.16
Bid-YTW : 5.23 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc -1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 20.78
Evaluated at bid price : 20.78
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset Disc -1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 19.63
Evaluated at bid price : 19.63
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
BIP.PR.F FixedReset Disc -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 20.90
Evaluated at bid price : 20.90
Bid-YTW : 6.22 %
CM.PR.R FixedReset Disc -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 22.04
Evaluated at bid price : 22.41
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.16
Bid-YTW : 6.55 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 20.13
Evaluated at bid price : 20.13
Bid-YTW : 5.23 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.18
Bid-YTW : 6.83 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc -1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 20.27
Evaluated at bid price : 20.27
Bid-YTW : 5.23 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset Disc -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 18.51
Evaluated at bid price : 18.51
Bid-YTW : 5.42 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 18.18
Evaluated at bid price : 18.18
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset Disc -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 21.36
Evaluated at bid price : 21.36
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
BAM.PF.J FixedReset Disc -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 22.25
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
BNS.PR.I FixedReset Disc -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 21.99
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset Ins Non -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.15
Bid-YTW : 8.12 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset Disc -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 17.32
Evaluated at bid price : 17.32
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
NA.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 19.93
Evaluated at bid price : 19.93
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Bid-YTW : 7.97 %
NA.PR.C FixedReset Disc -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 21.90
Evaluated at bid price : 22.25
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
CM.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 19.99
Evaluated at bid price : 19.99
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
NA.PR.G FixedReset Disc -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 21.38
Evaluated at bid price : 21.69
Bid-YTW : 5.14 %
PWF.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 23.26
Evaluated at bid price : 23.60
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.17
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
PWF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 23.97
Evaluated at bid price : 24.22
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc 71,851 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 18.20
Evaluated at bid price : 18.20
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
IAF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 64,648 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
RY.PR.Q FixedReset Prem 52,534 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.82
Bid-YTW : 3.80 %
TD.PF.L FixedReset Prem 42,590 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 23.20
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
TD.PF.G FixedReset Prem 33,465 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.95
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset Disc 30,910 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 18.25
Evaluated at bid price : 18.25
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
There were 22 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
HSE.PR.E FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.03 – 20.02
Spot Rate : 0.9900
Average : 0.6360

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 19.03
Evaluated at bid price : 19.03
Bid-YTW : 6.74 %

BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc Quote: 18.18 – 18.62
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.2801

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 18.18
Evaluated at bid price : 18.18
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %

MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 21.40 – 21.75
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2200

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.40
Bid-YTW : 6.54 %

HSE.PR.G FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.03 – 19.70
Spot Rate : 0.6700
Average : 0.5531

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 19.03
Evaluated at bid price : 19.03
Bid-YTW : 6.69 %

CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.55 – 22.90
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2482

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-27
Maturity Price : 22.23
Evaluated at bid price : 22.55
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %

MFC.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 21.16 – 21.55
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2884

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.16
Bid-YTW : 6.55 %

Regulation

IAIS SecGen Discusses ICS 2.0 Timeline

The International Association of Insurance Supervisors released its May, 2019, Newsletter today, which was led by a piece from the Secretary-General, Jonathan Dixon:

Our committee meetings next month in Buenos Aires mark an important point in the IAIS’ journey to a global Insurance Capital Standard (ICS). The IAIS embarked on the development of the ICS to create a common language
for supervisory discussions of group solvency of internationally active insurance groups. In June, the focus of our committee discussions will shift from design to implementation issues.

The final round of field testing is now underway, with data due at the end of July. While some ICS design elements remain to be finalised this year, the IAIS remains committed to resolving those elements and beginning the monitoring period in 2020, while recognising that the ICS will continue to evolve during this period. This includes possible refinements and corrections of major flaws or unintended consequences identified during the monitoring period.

In June, we will discuss the overall framework for the monitoring period, including confidentiality safeguards around disclosure of the ICS results and modalities for considering unintended consequences, given that our intention has always been to undertake this work once the ICS is sufficiently developed. We will also further our discussions on the timelines, process and governance for developing comparability criteria and completing the comparability assessment of other solvency regimes relative to the ICS.

As we move towards November and the adoption of ICS Version 2.0 for the monitoring period, we will continue our constructive engagement with stakeholders in order to ensure that there is greater clarity on the process for finalising and implementing the ICS.

This is all consistent with previous schedules provided for ICS 2.0, which include the IAIS deliberations regarding the definition of Insurance company Tier 1 Limited Capital (which includes preferred shares); I take the view that rules comparable, if not identical to the bank NVCC rules will be imposed by OSFI at some point in the future.

New Issues

New Issue : TD FixedReset 5.10%+356, NVCC

The Toronto-Dominion Bank has announced (although not yet on their website):

a domestic public offering of Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)), Series 24 (the “Series 24 Shares”).

TD has entered into an agreement with a group of underwriters led by TD Securities Inc. to issue, on a bought deal basis, 10 million Series 24 Shares at a price of $25.00 per share to raise gross proceeds of $250 million. TD has also granted the underwriters an option to purchase, on the same terms, up to an additional 2 million Series 24 Shares. This option is exercisable in whole or in part by the underwriters at any time up to two business days prior to closing.

The Series 24 Shares will yield 5.10% annually, with dividends payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TD, for the initial period ending July 31, 2024. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a level of 3.56% over the then five-year Government of Canada bond yield.

Subject to regulatory approval, on July 31, 2024 and on July 31 every 5 years thereafter, TD may redeem the Series 24 Shares, in whole or in part, at $25.00 per share. Subject to TD’s right of redemption and certain other conditions, holders of the Series 24 Shares will have the right to convert their shares into Non-Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares (NVCC), Series 25 (the “Series 25 Shares”), on July 31, 2024, and on July 31 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 25 Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating rate dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TD, equal to the three-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 3.56%.

The expected closing date is June 4, 2019. TD will make an application to list the Series 24 Shares as of the closing date on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes.

They later announced (not on their website either):

that as a result of strong investor demand for its previously announced domestic public offering of Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)), Series 24 (the “Series 24 Shares”), the size of the offering has been increased to 18 million Series 24 Shares. The gross proceeds of the offering will now be $450 million. The offering will be underwritten by a group of underwriters led by TD Securities Inc.

The expected closing date is June 4, 2019. TD will make an application to list the Series 24 Shares as of the closing date on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes.

The new issue is somewhat expensive according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

impvol_td_190524
Click for Big

According to this analysis, the fair price of the new issue is 24.27.

It is most interesting to compare this issue with TD.PF.L, a FixedReset, 5.20%+327, that commenced trading 2019-1-28 after being announced 2019-01-17. Alert Assiduous Readers will have noticed that although the initial dividends of the two issues are similar, the spreads are 29bp different, which is significant. The fair price of TD.PF.L according to the analysis above is only 23.23, yet the issue was down only $0.17 on the day to close at 25.01-24 on volume of 109,265. I am reminded of the BCE.PR.K Ridiculous Rip-off Wrinkle, in which BCE was able to reopen the issue since – presumably – the initial coupon rate was in-line with the market even though the spread to the Canada 5-year for the re-opened portion was 87bp lower than it should have been.

So I guess TD’s happy enough with the pricing of this issue – after all, given that the calculated spread for a notional perpetual non-callable annuity is 346bp and the spread on the issue is 356bp. They didn’t quite get their call options for free, but close!

New Issues

New Issue : CM FixedReset, 5.15%+362, NVC

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has announced:

that it had entered into an agreement with a group of underwriters led by CIBC Capital Markets for an issue of 10 million Basel III-compliant Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class A Preferred Shares Series 51 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 51 Shares”) priced at $25.00 per Series 51 Share to raise gross proceeds of $250 million.

CIBC has granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional 2 million Series 51 Shares at the same offering price, exercisable at any time up to two days prior to closing. Should the underwriters’ option be fully exercised, the total gross proceeds of the financing will be $300 million.

The Series 51 Shares will yield 5.15% per annum, payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of CIBC, for an initial period ending July 31, 2024. On July 31, 2024, and on July 31 every five years thereafter, the dividend rate will reset to be equal to the then current five-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 3.62%.

Subject to regulatory approval and certain provisions of the Series 51 Shares, on July 31, 2024 and on July 31 every five years thereafter, CIBC may, at its option, redeem all or any part of the then outstanding Series 51 Shares at par.

Subject to the right of redemption, holders of the Series 51 Shares will have the right to convert their shares into Non-cumulative Floating Rate Class A Preferred Shares Series 52 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 52 Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on July 31, 2024 and on July 31 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 52 Shares will be entitled to receive a quarterly floating rate dividend, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of CIBC, equal to the three-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 3.62%.

Holders of the Series 52 Shares may convert their Series 52 Shares into Series 51 Shares, subject to certain conditions, on July 31, 2029 and on July 31 every five years thereafter.

The expected closing date is June 4, 2019. CIBC will make an application to list the Series 51 Shares as of the closing date on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The net proceeds of this offering will be used for general purposes of CIBC.

The new issue is somewhat expensive according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

impvol_cm_190524
Click for Big

According to this analysis, the fair price of the new issue is 24.85, but alert Assiduous Readers will have noticed that the Implied Volatility plot is very peculiar, having twp expensive issues and four cheap ones, with the new issue being the sole occupant of No Man’s Land.

The two rich issues are:

The extremely perplexing issue is CM.PR.R, a FixedReset, 4.40%+338, NVCC Compliant issue that commenced trading 2017-6-2 after being announced 2017-5-25. It traded 44,632 shares today in a range of 22.66-80 before closing at 22.72-76.

I confess I don’t know quite what to make of this. It is common – normal, even – for a new issue to remain rich for quite some time, but I am at a loss to explain why CM.PR.S should remain rich after being on the market for sixteen months. CM.PR.R is just silly … but note that its current coupon is low relative to the new issue and it won’t reset until 2022-7-31 … three years, roughly, thirteen coupon payments, but that’s only a total of about $0.60 and doesn’t explain the differential with CM.PR.S anyway.

Fortunately, I don’t have to explain it! All I have to do is avoid buying the new issue and favour other, cheaper, choices for any allocation to CM that I care to make.

Market Action

May 24, 2019

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2723 % 2,075.2
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2723 % 3,807.9
Floater 5.66 % 6.02 % 51,383 13.78 3 -0.2723 % 2,194.5
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0455 % 3,308.5
SplitShare 4.70 % 4.68 % 79,633 4.29 7 0.0455 % 3,951.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0455 % 3,082.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.53 % 4.94 % 83,207 1.78 12 -0.0495 % 2,948.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.45 % 5.48 % 74,835 14.66 20 -0.1192 % 3,097.9
FixedReset Disc 5.32 % 5.49 % 148,230 14.77 63 -0.3588 % 2,161.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.23 % 5.90 % 92,968 8.01 27 0.0190 % 3,079.0
FloatingReset 3.95 % 4.37 % 43,208 2.58 4 0.0383 % 2,415.1
FixedReset Prem 5.12 % 4.00 % 229,367 2.09 21 -0.0223 % 2,584.4
FixedReset Bank Non 1.98 % 4.01 % 147,963 2.59 3 -0.0972 % 2,648.6
FixedReset Ins Non 5.08 % 6.84 % 102,358 8.20 22 -0.2037 % 2,233.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
HSE.PR.E FixedReset Disc -2.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 19.57
Evaluated at bid price : 19.57
Bid-YTW : 6.71 %
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc -2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 21.45
Evaluated at bid price : 21.45
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset Disc -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 19.31
Evaluated at bid price : 19.31
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
IFC.PR.E Deemed-Retractible -1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.85
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.33
Bid-YTW : 6.94 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 21.23
Evaluated at bid price : 21.23
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
BMO.PR.C FixedReset Disc -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 22.85
Evaluated at bid price : 23.75
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 7.97 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 18.41
Evaluated at bid price : 18.41
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc -1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 20.40
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BNS.PR.H FixedReset Prem 119,500 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-01-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.79
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
TD.PF.L FixedReset Prem 109,265 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 23.17
Evaluated at bid price : 25.01
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
BMO.PR.F FixedReset Prem 108,560 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 23.21
Evaluated at bid price : 25.14
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
TD.PF.H FixedReset Prem 104,540 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.71
Bid-YTW : 3.78 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 55,818 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 18.63
Evaluated at bid price : 18.63
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc 54,200 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 18.31
Evaluated at bid price : 18.31
Bid-YTW : 5.34 %
There were 17 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Issue Comments

LB.PR.H : Convert or Hold?

It will be recalled that LB.PR.H will reset At 4.123% effective June 15, 2019.

LB.PR.H is a NVCC-compliant FixedReset, 4.30%+255, that commenced trading 2014-4-3 after being announced 2014-3-25. The extension was announced 2019-5-7. This issue is tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps FixedReset-Discount subindex on credit concerns.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., LB.PR.H and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_190524
Click for Big

The market appears to have lost its fleeting interest in floating rate product, although it may be picking up again; the implied rates until the next interconversion are above the current 3-month bill rate as the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are at +1.34% and +1.87%, respectively. Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the LB.PR.H FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.23 – 21.75
Spot Rate : 0.5200
Average : 0.3516

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 21.23
Evaluated at bid price : 21.23
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %

IFC.PR.E Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.85 – 24.43
Spot Rate : 0.5800
Average : 0.4205

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.85
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %

TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc Quote: 21.45 – 21.84
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2561

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 21.45
Evaluated at bid price : 21.45
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %

BAM.PR.K Floater Quote: 11.66 – 11.97
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2082

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 11.66
Evaluated at bid price : 11.66
Bid-YTW : 6.02 %

PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.07 – 22.35
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1899

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 21.81
Evaluated at bid price : 22.07
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %

BAM.PF.J FixedReset Disc Quote: 23.08 – 23.32
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1564

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-24
Maturity Price : 22.42
Evaluated at bid price : 23.08
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %

Estimate of FloatingReset (received in exchange for LB.PR.H) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 2.00% 1.50% 1.00%
LB.PR.H 16.81 255bp 17.22 16.74 16.26

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to trade close to the price of their FixedReset counterparts, LB.PR.H. Therefore, I recommend that holders of LB.PR.H determine whether or not to convert based on their own portfolio considerations and forecast for policy rates. I will note that once the FloatingResets commence trading (if, in fact, they do) it may be a good trade to swap one issue for the other in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – hopefully – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Those who wish to convert anyway are advised that the deadline for notifying the company of such a desire is 5:00 p.m. (Montreal time) on May 31, 2019. Brokers and other intermediaries generally set their internal deadlines a day or two in advance of this date, so if you wish to convert there’s no time to waste! Note that brokers will, in general, try to execute the instruction on a ‘best efforts’ basis if received between the two deadlines, provided that the procrastinating shareholder grovels entertainingly enough.