Market Action

February 25, 2019

Rob Carrick of the Globe published an article last week titled Critics of the overhauled CPP say it’s a bad deal – here’s why they’re wrong which contained the following puzzling statements:

Critics say the CPP pay outs offer a poor rate of return on contributions…

The Fraser Institute think tank critiqued this column, partly for not deploring the rate of return people will get on money contributed to the expanded CPP. The institute quotes a study saying the overall return is 2.5 per cent, which is described as “meagre.”

Based on numbers only, maybe so. Guidelines for financial planners set out after-fee returns of 3.2 per cent for conservative portfolios (25 per cent stocks, 75 per cent bonds and cash), 3.9 per cent for balanced portfolios (50 per cent stocks, 50 per cent bonds/cash) and 4.7 per cent for aggressive (75 per cent stocks, 25 per cent bonds/cash.

This puzzled me because the last time I reviewed it, I figured the CPP was doing a pretty good job. The primary reason for this is that they have a captive market; therefore they have no salesmen; and therefore they don’t have to come up with interesting stories and ensure their portfolios are aligned with that story. All they have to do is choose good investments. This is an extremely important determinant of investment management results, as I have stated in this blog to the point of weariness when discussing outfits like OMERS, Teachers and HOOPP. It also helps that they can fire people without having to worry about clients’ reactions.

So I did a little checking and a little digging and, after the Fraser Institute came out with another volley in their debate, had an eMail exchange with one of the Fraser Institute honchos which included the following, taken from my side of the exchange:

Aren’t the figures quoted by Carrick (which appear to be from the FPSC Projection Assumption Guidelines, published online at [LINK] ) nominal returns, gross of 2.0% inflation, as opposed to your figures, which are net of inflation?

It makes quite a difference to the comparison!


As you are doubtless aware, the CPP was only 6% funded in 1996 (see [LINK] ) as the CPP was conceived as having a pay-as-you-go basis.

This was changed in 1997 to a requirement for steady-state funding and full funding (see [LINK] ).

It is clear that a transition from 6% funding to 100% funding must be paid for somehow, and I see only three avenues for accomplishing this task:
– reduce benefits for the ‘early benefiticiaries’ [sic], some of whom achieved staggering rates of return on their contributions, as discussed in [LINK]
– increase contributions for ‘late beneficiaries’
– make up the difference through government general revenue, i.e., taxpayers in general irrespective of CPP status.

The solution reached was to adjust the contribution and benefit rates with the effect that current contributors are over-funding their benefits. Right or wrong, that was a political decision that people seem happy with, although it leads to the gap you deprecate between the fund’s required rate of return and the rate of return realized in benefits to current contributors.

Thus, the existence of this gap is irrelevant to any discussion of CPP expansion, as the gap that existed in 1996 is slowly being erased through increased contribution rates. Any changes to the level of expected benefits must be fully funded; this implies that the gap, expressed in terms of fund- and contributor-returns will actually narrow as the plan is expanded (or, conversely, widen if the fund should become less ambitious; I note that as per the 16th Actuarial report referenced above, the contribution rate was projected to rise to 10.1% in 2016 and 14.2% in 2030.

Even after accounting for the gap in returns, contributors are expected to achieve a 2.5% real rate of return on their contributions according to your figures, a rate that can hardly be described as meagre. This is equivalent to a 4.5% nominal rate given generally accepted estimates of future inflation, handsomely exceeding the ‘conservative’ (3.2%) and ‘balanced’ (3.9%) portfolios of the FPSC Projection Assumption Guidelines quoted by Carrick. The projected contributor rate of return is exceeded only slightly by the ‘aggressive’ projection (4.7%). It is my experience in the investment management business that there are far more investors who will demand ‘conservative’ or ‘balanced’ investment portfolios – particularly among those who hold less than the median non-pension financial assets of a mere $11,600 in 2016 (see [LINK] ).

You claim that “the CPP has to earn a 4% ROR over time in order to sustainably provide a 2.5% ROR to retirees. No worker would likely make that deal voluntarily” This is absurd. There exist a huge number of Canadian equity mutual funds with MERs in excess of 1.5%, and (according to the OSC in 2013 (see [LINK] : “According to analysis from Strategic Insight on advisory fees charged by client asset size under U.S. fee-based programs (2011), 70% of U.S. investors with account sizes of $100,000 are charged advisory fees higher than 1.25% and 31% are charged over 1.50%”. Note also that, as discussed above, elimination of this gap with respect to current contributors would only move the requirement for increasing the CPP funded ratio onto other shoulders; this is in distinction to the extortionate levels of fees in the Canadian financial services industry which are paid very happily by investors.

I will also note that my analysis of annuity rates indicates that the expected rate of return on annuities offered to retail investors is 0% – the profits due to investment returns during the lives of the annuities are captured entirely by the sponsoring company – and are well in excess of 1.5% (the value of annuities lies not in their value as investments, but as insurance against unexpected longevity). Additionally, the Net Interest Margins achieved by Canadian banks are grossly in excess of the 1.5% that “no worker would likely make … voluntarily”. (see [LINK] ). It is also clear that almost every investor in Canada bonds for the past ten-plus years has voluntarily accepted a rate of return far below 2.5% real.

I remain perplexed by your statement that “please note that the CPP doesn’t offer any inheritable asset other than the death benefit. That issue isn’t included in the comparison.” Surely your analysis included all cash-flows from the CPP to beneficiaries; therefore your claim of a 2.5% expected rate of return will – under the “full funding” regime – be unaffected by whether any given outflow is labelled as a death benefit or otherwise.

Sincerely,

For the record, I don’t consider the Fraser Institute to be a think-tank at all. It’s just another murky mouthpiece for the vested interests … their funding is unusually opaque.

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HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1935 % 2,196.4
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1935 % 4,030.3
Floater 5.34 % 5.59 % 32,269 14.44 4 0.1935 % 2,322.7
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0748 % 3,257.0
SplitShare 4.90 % 4.63 % 57,717 3.92 8 -0.0748 % 3,889.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0748 % 3,034.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.82 % -8.10 % 89,025 0.08 4 0.2373 % 2,906.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.55 % 5.66 % 76,831 14.23 31 0.2558 % 3,000.0
FixedReset Disc 5.13 % 5.45 % 221,041 14.78 65 0.3436 % 2,214.5
Deemed-Retractible 5.30 % 6.21 % 92,572 8.10 27 0.4378 % 2,992.1
FloatingReset 4.35 % 5.64 % 53,662 8.42 6 0.4407 % 2,441.9
FixedReset Prem 5.12 % 4.16 % 282,760 2.25 18 0.2243 % 2,539.5
FixedReset Bank Non 2.00 % 4.40 % 170,441 2.81 3 0.1900 % 2,609.6
FixedReset Ins Non 4.97 % 6.88 % 132,091 8.25 22 0.3757 % 2,239.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
RY.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 21.78
Evaluated at bid price : 22.20
Bid-YTW : 4.91 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 19.26
Evaluated at bid price : 19.26
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 21.46
Evaluated at bid price : 21.46
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset Disc 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 19.99
Evaluated at bid price : 19.99
Bid-YTW : 6.72 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.80
Bid-YTW : 9.14 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.70
Bid-YTW : 7.10 %
ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 24.19
Evaluated at bid price : 24.55
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 6.81 %
GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.19
Bid-YTW : 6.38 %
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.90
Bid-YTW : 6.60 %
IAF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.05
Bid-YTW : 6.88 %
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.80
Bid-YTW : 6.84 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 12.56
Evaluated at bid price : 12.56
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
PWF.PR.Q FloatingReset 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 14.69
Evaluated at bid price : 14.69
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 19.30
Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Bid-YTW : 6.49 %
GWO.PR.P Deemed-Retractible 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.90
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
PWF.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 22.27
Evaluated at bid price : 22.61
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
TD.PF.I FixedReset Disc 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 22.83
Evaluated at bid price : 23.87
Bid-YTW : 4.97 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.90
Bid-YTW : 8.82 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Disc 1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 22.47
Evaluated at bid price : 23.33
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 15.93
Evaluated at bid price : 15.93
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset Ins Non 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.51
Bid-YTW : 7.65 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset Disc 1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 21.15
Evaluated at bid price : 21.15
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset Disc 1.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 19.39
Evaluated at bid price : 19.39
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
BAM.PF.I FixedReset Prem 2.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
BIP.PR.D FixedReset Disc 2.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 22.18
Evaluated at bid price : 22.61
Bid-YTW : 6.14 %
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc 2.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 21.99
Evaluated at bid price : 22.45
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset Disc 2.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 13.71
Evaluated at bid price : 13.71
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset Disc 3.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 20.01
Evaluated at bid price : 20.01
Bid-YTW : 6.77 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc 115,716 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 21.46
Evaluated at bid price : 21.46
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 97,820 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 23.08
Evaluated at bid price : 23.46
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 76,350 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 19.27
Evaluated at bid price : 19.27
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
TD.PF.L FixedReset Prem 74,943 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 5.04 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc 69,909 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 19.35
Evaluated at bid price : 19.35
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 63,910 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.29
Bid-YTW : 6.21 %
There were 30 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 20.77 – 21.55
Spot Rate : 0.7800
Average : 0.5139

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.77
Bid-YTW : 6.99 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc Quote: 14.55 – 15.21
Spot Rate : 0.6600
Average : 0.4292

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 14.55
Evaluated at bid price : 14.55
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %

BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.32 – 20.85
Spot Rate : 0.5300
Average : 0.3548

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 20.32
Evaluated at bid price : 20.32
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc Quote: 14.21 – 14.65
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3064

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 14.21
Evaluated at bid price : 14.21
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %

POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.05 – 22.44
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2749

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 21.81
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %

CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.46 – 23.90
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3359

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-25
Maturity Price : 23.08
Evaluated at bid price : 23.46
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %

Issue Comments

AIM Pays Dividends; AIM.PR.C To Be Extended

Aimia Inc. has announced:

the reduction of its stated capital account, the payment of dividends on its common and preferred shares, and provided an update on the conversion privilege of Series 3 preferred shares.

Further to the approval of a reduction in stated capital by common shareholders at the meeting of shareholders held on January 8, 2019, and having taken into account the completion of the sale of Aimia Canada Inc. and the receipt of the sale proceeds and the subsequent reduction in liabilities and financial indebtedness of the company, Aimia’s Board of Directors has now determined that it is in the best interests of the company to approve the following matters:
•a reduction of the stated capital account maintained in respect of the common shares to an aggregate of $1,000,000;
•the payment on March 29, 2019 of the quarterly dividends originally declared on May 10, 2017, being dividends of $0.20 per common share, $0.28125 per Cumulative Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series 1 (the “Series 1 Preferred Shares”), $0.263651 per Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares, Series 2 (the “Series 2 Preferred Shares”) and $0.390625 per Cumulative Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series 3 (the “Series 3 Preferred Shares) (collectively, the “Declared Dividends”) to holders of record at the close of business on June 16, 2017;
•the payment on March 29, 2019 of dividends on each of the Series 1 Preferred Shares, the Series 2 Preferred Shares and the Series 3 Preferred Shares accrued and unpaid since July 1, 2017 (representing accrued dividends on such preferred shares for six quarters), being dividends of $1.68750 per Series 1 Preferred Share, $1.79388 per Series 2 Preferred Share and $2.343750 per Series 3 Preferred Share (collectively, the “Accrued and Unpaid Preferred Share Dividends”) to holders of record at the close of business on March 19, 2019; and
•the payment on March 29, 2019 of the first quarterly dividends in 2019 in the amount of $0.28125 per Series 1 Preferred Share, $0.336760 per Series 2 Preferred Share and $0.390625 per Series 3 Preferred Share, in each case payable to holders of record at the close of business on March 19, 2019.

The payments for the Declared Dividends amount to an aggregate of $34.7 million and for the Accrued and Unpaid Preferred Share Dividends together with the first 2019 quarterly dividend on all series of preferred shares amount to an aggregate of $30.5 million.

In reaching its decision, the Board considered the company’s ability to satisfy the applicable tests under the Canada Business Corporations Act and the company’s obligation to pay the unpaid dividends with a view to remaining in good standing with the applicable rules and policies of the Toronto Stock Exchange (the “TSX”) and maintaining its listing on TSX.

The above-mentioned dividends on the common and preferred shares are designated as eligible dividends for the purposes of the Income Tax Act (Canada) and any similar applicable provincial legislation.

In addition, the company announced today that it does not intend to exercise its right to redeem all or any number of the currently outstanding 6,000,000 Series 3 Preferred Shares on March 31, 2019. As a result of the decision not to redeem all or any number of the Series 3 Preferred Shares and subject to certain conditions set out in the rights, privileges, restrictions and conditions attaching to such shares, the holders of the Series 3 Preferred Shares have the right to convert all or any number of their Series 3 Preferred Shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares, Series 4 (the “Series 4 Preferred Shares”) of Aimia on April 1, 2019 (March 31, 2019 falling on a Sunday, a non-business day). Holders who do not exercise their right to convert their Series 3 Preferred Shares into Series 4 Preferred Shares on such date will continue to hold their Series 3 Preferred Shares.

The conversion right is subject to the conditions that: (i) if Aimia determines that there would be less than 1,000,000 Series 4 Preferred Shares outstanding after the conversion date, then holders of Series 3 Preferred Shares will not be entitled to convert their shares into Series 4 Preferred Shares and, alternatively; (ii) if Aimia determines that, after the conversion date, there would remain less than 1,000,000 Series 3 Preferred Shares outstanding, then all remaining Series 3 Preferred Shares will be automatically converted into Series 4 Preferred Shares on a one-for-one basis on the conversion date. In either case, Aimia will give written notice to that effect to registered holders of Series 3 Preferred Shares no later than March 22, 2019.

The dividend rate applicable to the Series 3 Preferred Shares for the 5-year period from and including March 31, 2019 up to but excluding March 31, 2024, and the dividend rate applicable to the Series 4 Preferred Shares for the 3-month period from and including March 31, 2019 up to but excluding June 30, 2019 will be announced by way of a press release on March 1, 2019.

To the extent any Series 3 Preferred Shares convert into Series 4 Preferred Shares on April 1, 2019, holders of Series 3 Preferred Shares as of the close of business on March 19, 2019 will be able to receive all dividends payable on such shares on March 29, 2019 prior to the conversion date.

Beneficial owners of Series 3 Preferred Shares who wish to exercise their conversion right should communicate as soon as possible with their broker or other nominee to obtain instructions for exercising such right on or prior to the deadline for exercise, which is 5:00 p.m. (Montreal time) on March 18, 2019.

Inquiries regarding conversion of the Series 3 Preferred Shares should be directed to Aimia’s Registrar and Transfer Agent, AST Trust Company (Canada), at 1-800-387-0825 (toll free in Canada and the United States).

They further announced:

Aimia Inc.(TSX: AIM) will issue its fourth quarter 2018 financial results at 6:00 a.m. EDT on the morning of Thursday, March 28, 2019, and hold its quarterly conference call and webcast at 8:30 a.m. EDT on the same day.

I certainly hope they produce a pro-forma balance sheet reflecting the closing of the Aeroplan transaction and the reduction in stated capital! There are so many balls in the air with this company that getting a good idea of where they stand is no minor task – and it doesn’t help that nobody really knows what business they’re in nowadays:

AIMIA POST-TRANSACTION

The Board of Directors has formally commenced a process to review and evaluate the future strategic direction of Aimia assuming and following completion of the Proposed Transaction. As part of that process, the Board of Directors has asked Management to present it with alternative visions and plans regarding the Corporation’s mid- and long-term strategic future and direction, including as a leading player in loyalty management. The Board of Directors has, in its review process, formed a committee comprised of independent directors for the purpose of receiving and considering any such Management recommendation(s). The independent committee is currently actively engaged in these matters, and the Corporation will publicly disclose the results of its review process setting out the vision and direction of the Corporation once it has formally made decisions or determinations with respect to the foregoing.

Aimia suspended preferred share dividends in June, 2017. DBRS doungraded the preferreds to Pfd-5(high) in August, 2017, and currently has them under review with developing implications. S&P declared that it considered the preferred shares to be in default in June, 2018.

Affected issues are AIM.PR.A, AIM.PR.B and AIM.PR.C. I will have more commentary regarding the conversion right for AIM.PR.C when the reset rate is announced on March 1.

Issue Comments

DF.PR.A To Be Extended

Quadravest has announced:

Dividend 15 Split Corp. II (the “Company”) is pleased to announce it will extend the termination date of the Company a further five year period from December 1, 2019 to December 1, 2024.

The term extension allows holders of DF Class A Shares (“Class A Shares”) to continue to receive ongoing leveraged exposure to a portfolio consisting of high-quality Canadian dividend yielding stocks as well as receiving targeted monthly distributions. Since inception of the Company Class A shareholders have received monthly distributions totaling $12.50 per share.

Holders of the DF.PR.A Preferred Shares (“Preferred Shares”) are expected to continue to benefit from cumulative preferential monthly distributions. The Preferred shareholders have received a total of $6.41 per share since inception.

The extension of the term of the Company is not expected to be a taxable event and should enable shareholders to defer potential capital gains tax liability that would have otherwise been realized on the redemption of the Class A Shares or Preferred Shares at the end of the term, until such time as such shares are disposed of by shareholders.

In connection with the extension, the Company will have the right to amend the rate of cumulative preferential monthly dividends to be paid to the Preferred Shares for the five year renewal period, commencing December 1, 2019. Any change to the Preferred Share dividend rate for the extended term will be based on market yields for preferred shares with similar terms at such time and will be announced no later than September 30, 2019.

The Company invests in a high quality portfolio of leading Canadian dividend-yielding stocks as follows: Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, National Bank of Canada, CI Financial Corp., BCE Inc., Manulife Financial, Enbridge, Sun Life Financial, TELUS Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, TransAlta Corporation, TransCanada Corporation.

DF.PR.A was added to the HIMIPref™ universe in May 2008, as a 5.25% Split Share maturing 2014-12-1. It was hammered in the Credit Crunch, but survived and a five year term extension with unchanged dividend was proposed in May 2013 which was approved in June 2013.

Issue Comments

DFN.PR.A To Be Extended

Quadravest has announced:

Dividend 15 Split Corp. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce it will extend the termination date of the Company a further five year period from December 1, 2019 to December 1, 2024.

The term extension allows holders of DFN Class A Shares (“Class A Shares”) to continue to receive ongoing leveraged exposure to a portfolio consisting of high-quality Canadian dividend yielding stocks as well as receiving targeted monthly distributions. Since inception of the Company Class A shareholders have received 178 consecutive monthly distributions totaling $21.30 per share (including five special distributions of $0.25 per share, one special distribution of $0.50 per share and one special stock dividend of $1.75 per share).

Holders of the DFN.PR.A Preferred Shares (“Preferred Shares”) are expected to continue to benefit from cumulative preferential monthly distributions. The Preferred shareholders have received a total of $7.81 per share since inception.

The extension of the term of the Company is not expected to be a taxable event and should enable shareholders to defer potential capital gains tax liability that would have otherwise been realized on the redemption of the Class A Shares or Preferred Shares at the end of the term, until such time as such shares are disposed of by shareholders.

In connection with the extension, the Company will have the right to amend the rate of cumulative preferential monthly dividends to be paid to the Preferred Shares for the five year renewal period, commencing December 1, 2019. Any change to the Preferred Share dividend rate for the extended term will be based on market yields for preferred shares with similar terms at such time and will be announced no later than September 30, 2019.

The Company invests in a high quality portfolio of leading Canadian dividend-yielding stocks as follows: Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, National Bank of Canada, CI Financial Corp., BCE Inc., Manulife Financial, Enbridge, Sun Life Financial, TELUS Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, TransAlta Corporation, TransCanada Corporation.

DFN.PR.A was first traded 2004-3-16 as a 5.25% Split Share scheduled to mature 2009-12-1. A Special Resolution was proposed in April 2007 to extend term to 2014-12-1 with an unchanged dividend. The proposal was approved and shareholders had a wild ride during the Credit Crunch. There was another term extension approved in June 2013 with the dividend remaining unchanged. The fund then swallowed up CGQ & CGQ.E as well as STQ / STQ.E.

Market Action

February 22, 2019

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1352 % 2,192.2
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1352 % 4,022.5
Floater 5.35 % 5.64 % 30,313 14.37 4 -0.1352 % 2,318.2
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0746 % 3,259.4
SplitShare 4.90 % 4.62 % 59,776 3.93 8 0.0746 % 3,892.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0746 % 3,037.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.83 % -2.59 % 86,869 0.08 4 0.1089 % 2,899.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.56 % 5.63 % 77,973 14.25 31 0.1274 % 2,992.3
FixedReset Disc 5.14 % 5.41 % 224,319 14.79 65 0.3962 % 2,206.9
Deemed-Retractible 5.33 % 6.22 % 93,780 8.11 27 0.3522 % 2,979.1
FloatingReset 4.38 % 5.73 % 55,861 8.42 6 0.1503 % 2,431.2
FixedReset Prem 5.14 % 4.22 % 284,336 2.25 18 0.0588 % 2,533.8
FixedReset Bank Non 2.78 % 4.38 % 171,927 2.82 5 -0.0826 % 2,604.6
FixedReset Ins Non 4.99 % 6.97 % 132,694 8.26 22 0.5288 % 2,230.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
HSE.PR.E FixedReset Disc -3.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 19.27
Evaluated at bid price : 19.27
Bid-YTW : 7.01 %
BAM.PF.I FixedReset Prem -1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 5.43 %
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc -1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 21.64
Evaluated at bid price : 21.95
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
BIP.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 21.06
Evaluated at bid price : 21.06
Bid-YTW : 6.04 %
PWF.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 21.96
Evaluated at bid price : 22.31
Bid-YTW : 5.82 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 12.40
Evaluated at bid price : 12.40
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 19.07
Evaluated at bid price : 19.07
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset Disc 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 16.78
Evaluated at bid price : 16.78
Bid-YTW : 6.03 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.53
Bid-YTW : 6.93 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset Disc 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 20.25
Evaluated at bid price : 20.25
Bid-YTW : 6.64 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 21.75
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.64
Bid-YTW : 6.62 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.86
Bid-YTW : 9.13 %
BIP.PR.F FixedReset Disc 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 21.36
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %
SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.58
Bid-YTW : 6.90 %
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.54
Bid-YTW : 6.98 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 20.80
Evaluated at bid price : 20.80
Bid-YTW : 5.79 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non 1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc 1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 19.05
Evaluated at bid price : 19.05
Bid-YTW : 6.55 %
CM.PR.R FixedReset Disc 1.62 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 22.51
Evaluated at bid price : 23.20
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
IAF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 1.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 7.03 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Disc 2.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 22.29
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
RY.PR.S FixedReset Disc 2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 21.98
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
BNS.PR.I FixedReset Disc 2.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 22.55
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc 3.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 21.37
Evaluated at bid price : 21.68
Bid-YTW : 5.16 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset Ins Non 4.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.75
Bid-YTW : 8.97 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount 102,867 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc 88,489 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 21.67
Evaluated at bid price : 22.03
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset Disc 86,245 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 19.75
Evaluated at bid price : 19.75
Bid-YTW : 5.16 %
RY.PR.P Perpetual-Discount 78,057 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 24.57
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
MFC.PR.R FixedReset Ins Non 72,363 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc 65,078 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 19.07
Evaluated at bid price : 19.07
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
There were 37 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BIP.PR.D FixedReset Disc Quote: 22.16 – 23.10
Spot Rate : 0.9400
Average : 0.5556

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 21.86
Evaluated at bid price : 22.16
Bid-YTW : 6.25 %

BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.07 – 19.89
Spot Rate : 0.8200
Average : 0.5452

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 19.07
Evaluated at bid price : 19.07
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %

TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.15 – 19.88
Spot Rate : 0.7300
Average : 0.4632

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 19.15
Evaluated at bid price : 19.15
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %

RY.PR.S FixedReset Disc Quote: 22.50 – 23.20
Spot Rate : 0.7000
Average : 0.4368

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-22
Maturity Price : 21.98
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %

MFC.PR.L FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 18.22 – 18.90
Spot Rate : 0.6800
Average : 0.4216

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.22
Bid-YTW : 7.82 %

BAM.PF.I FixedReset Prem Quote: 24.75 – 25.30
Spot Rate : 0.5500
Average : 0.3223

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 5.43 %

Market Action

February 5, 2019

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.0727 % 2,317.7
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.0727 % 4,252.9
Floater 5.06 % 5.36 % 31,722 14.86 4 1.0727 % 2,450.9
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0150 % 3,221.5
SplitShare 4.91 % 4.98 % 68,110 3.97 8 -0.0150 % 3,847.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0150 % 3,001.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.87 % 1.82 % 92,591 0.08 4 0.0298 % 2,882.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.58 % 5.73 % 75,596 14.27 31 0.2010 % 2,974.8
FixedReset Disc 5.06 % 5.47 % 218,046 14.81 65 0.4005 % 2,242.3
Deemed-Retractible 5.38 % 6.35 % 93,621 8.14 27 0.1220 % 2,951.3
FloatingReset 4.31 % 5.38 % 63,453 8.50 6 0.2990 % 2,447.6
FixedReset Prem 5.15 % 4.28 % 272,030 2.30 18 -0.0715 % 2,526.4
FixedReset Bank Non 2.79 % 3.83 % 143,640 2.86 5 0.1163 % 2,592.8
FixedReset Ins Non 5.01 % 6.99 % 135,883 8.26 22 1.0517 % 2,219.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BIP.PR.F FixedReset Disc -1.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 19.40
Evaluated at bid price : 19.40
Bid-YTW : 5.33 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset Disc -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 19.45
Evaluated at bid price : 19.45
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 16.06
Evaluated at bid price : 16.06
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 22.11
Evaluated at bid price : 22.65
Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.40
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset Disc 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 20.46
Evaluated at bid price : 20.46
Bid-YTW : 5.85 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 13.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.00
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.08
Bid-YTW : 6.37 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 21.21
Evaluated at bid price : 21.21
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
IAF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.20
Bid-YTW : 6.99 %
ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 23.65
Evaluated at bid price : 24.15
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
W.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 23.69
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
PWF.PR.A Floater 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 15.60
Evaluated at bid price : 15.60
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 13.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.00
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
BIP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 21.45
Evaluated at bid price : 21.45
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
BAM.PF.J FixedReset Disc 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 23.08
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 20.30
Evaluated at bid price : 20.30
Bid-YTW : 6.21 %
NA.PR.G FixedReset Disc 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 21.88
Evaluated at bid price : 22.33
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc 1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 21.32
Evaluated at bid price : 21.32
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
IFC.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 6.38 %
TD.PF.I FixedReset Disc 1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 22.59
Evaluated at bid price : 23.40
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non 1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.90
Bid-YTW : 6.84 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset Disc 1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 19.81
Evaluated at bid price : 19.81
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non 2.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.91
Bid-YTW : 7.61 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 2.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.00
Bid-YTW : 8.99 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset Disc 2.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 6.46 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset Disc 2.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 21.64
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc 2.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 19.25
Evaluated at bid price : 19.25
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset Disc 3.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 14.35
Evaluated at bid price : 14.35
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc 3.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 21.57
Evaluated at bid price : 21.95
Bid-YTW : 5.17 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset Ins Non 3.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.55
Bid-YTW : 9.16 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non 6.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.61
Bid-YTW : 7.25 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BIK.PR.A FixedReset Prem 327,789 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 23.17
Evaluated at bid price : 25.06
Bid-YTW : 5.78 %
BAM.PF.J FixedReset Disc 121,610 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 23.08
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
MFC.PR.O FixedReset Ins Non 74,055 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-06-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.99
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
TD.PF.G FixedReset Prem 64,680 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.81
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
CM.PR.R FixedReset Disc 54,019 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 22.59
Evaluated at bid price : 23.35
Bid-YTW : 5.43 %
RY.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 43,340 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-03-07
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.03
Bid-YTW : 0.17 %
There were 26 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 20.50 – 21.80
Spot Rate : 1.3000
Average : 0.9161

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 7.15 %

NA.PR.G FixedReset Disc Quote: 22.33 – 23.00
Spot Rate : 0.6700
Average : 0.4566

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-05
Maturity Price : 21.88
Evaluated at bid price : 22.33
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %

CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.40 – 23.00
Spot Rate : 0.6000
Average : 0.4238

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.40
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %

W.PR.M FixedReset Prem Quote: 24.85 – 25.28
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.2796

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %

GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible Quote: 20.16 – 20.48
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2099

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.16
Bid-YTW : 7.18 %

MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 20.09 – 20.39
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1916

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.09
Bid-YTW : 7.24 %

Administration

Toronto Rock Lacrosse Ticket Giveaway – Update #5

I have ten nine eight seven six five pairs of Toronto Rock Lacrosse tickets to give away! Congratulations to Assiduous Reader BLANK, who won the tickets to the Feb. 15 game against the San Diego Seals!

In early March I will declare the lucky winner of the March 16 tickets to see Rock play Rochester. Get your requests in early!

The games take place at the Air Canada Centre Scotiabank Arena and the seats are very good. Just tell me which ones you would like and feel free to enter multiple times. A decision regarding who gets tickets will be made two weeks before each game and I will mail them to the lucky winner; while preference will be given to customers and those who tell me they’ve got a kid who plays lacrosse, anybody can win. If you win and don’t want your name publicized, that’s fine.

The games are:

Toronto Rock Lacrosse Ticket Giveaway
Date Opponent
Friday
2018-12-28
7:30pm
Georgia Swarm
Friday
2019-1-4
7:30pm
Philadelphia Wings
Friday
2019-1-18
7:30pm
Georgia Swarm
Friday
2019-2-1
7:30pm
Saskatchewan Rush
Friday
2019-2-15
7:30pm
San Diego Seals
Saturday
2019-3-16
7:00pm
Rochester Knighthawks
Saturday
2019-3-30
7:00pm
Philadelphia Wings
Friday
2019-4-5
7:30pm
Buffalo Bandits
Friday
2019-4-12
7:30pm
New England Black Wolves
???
???
???
Home Playoff Game #1
If there is one!

The games are a lot of fun. One thing that has impressed me is that these guys’ technical skills are so good they can concentrate on strategy … there are a lot fewer loose balls than I remember from my days of box lacrosse at age 10!

The play-off game? There’s no guarantee that there will be one, but you could always try your luck and ask for them.

To try your luck at receiving a pair of tickets, just eMail me or comment on this post.

*** Contest rules are subject to change without notice ***
*** I may be entirely capricious in selecting winners

Better Communication, Please!

FTS.PR.K Reset Rate to Remain Secret

I sent three eMails of inquiry (on 1/31, 2/1 and 2/4) to Fortis Investor Relations regarding the reset rate for FTS.PR.K:

Will the captioned security be redeemed? Or will the dividend rate be reset, with a conversion option? Will there be a press release, similar to the press releases of your competitors for capital, Enbridge and Pembina Pipelines, with respect to their issues resetting on the same date?

I finally got a reply today well after the close of business:

Good Evening Mr. Hymas,

Thank you for contacting Fortis Inc. Fortis does not intend to exercise its right to redeem all or any part of the currently outstanding Cumulative Redeemable Fixed Rate Reset First Preference Shares, Series K of the Corporation (the “Series K Shares”) on March 1, 2019.

Subject to certain conditions set out in the prospectus supplement of the Corporation dated July 9, 2013 to the base shelf prospectus of the Corporation dated May 10, 2012 relating to the issuance of the Series K Shares, the holders of the Series K Shares have the right to convert all or part of their Series K Shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Cumulative Redeemable Floating Rate First Preference Shares, Series L of the Corporation (the “Series L Shares”) on March 1, 2019 (the “Conversion Date”). This prospectus is on the Fortis website.

You should check CDS Advisory Bulletins for ongoing corporate actions relating to the conversion and/or redemption of Series K first preference shares. Furthermore, Fortis will be announcing the new dividend rate for the Series K upon the board of directors approval and declaration, which should occur around mid-February.

If you have any further questions please let me know.

There is a lot to complain about here.

First is the question of timing:

Fortis will be announcing the new dividend rate for the Series K upon the board of directors approval and declaration, which should occur around mid-February.

I note from the prospectus:

The holders of Series K First Preference Shares will have the right, at their option, to convert any or all of their Series K First Preference Shares into an equal number of Cumulative Redeemable Floating Rate First Preference Shares, Series L of the Corporation (the “Series L First Preference Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on March 1, 2019, and on March 1 every fifth year thereafter (each, a “Series K Conversion Date”).

The conversion of the Series K First Preference Shares may be effected by delivery to the Corporation of written notice thereof not earlier than the 30th day prior to, but not later than 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on the 15th day preceding, a Series K Conversion Date.

So March 1, 2019, is a Series K Conversion Date and the deadline for notification of conversion is the 15th day preceding this date, which is February 14, which is “around mid-February”. So the deadline for notification of conversion and the public announcement of the new rate will occur more or less simultaneously.

However, we may also note, from the prospectus, that:

“Fixed Rate Calculation Date” means, for any Subsequent Fixed Rate Period, the 30th day prior to the first day of such Subsequent Fixed Rate Period.

“Subsequent Fixed Rate Period” means, for the initial Subsequent Fixed Rate Period, the period commencing on March 1, 2019 to, but excluding, March 1, 2024 and, for each succeeding Subsequent Fixed Rate Period, the period commencing on the first day of March immediately following the end of the immediately preceding Subsequent Fixed Rate Period to, but excluding, March 1 in the fifth year thereafter.

The Corporation will, on the Fixed Rate Calculation Date, give written notice of the Annual Fixed Dividend Rate for the ensuing Subsequent Fixed Rate Period to the registered holders of the then outstanding Series K First Preference Shares.

So we may assume that Fortis has followed the letter of the prospectus and has already notified the “registered holders” of FTS.PR.K of the reset rate.

One thing sometimes forgotten when discussing “registered holders” nowadays is that there is usually exactly one registered holder: the depositary, which maintains accounts for each of its participants (brokerages) which in turn maintain accounts for each of their customers. This is called a “book based” system and is described in the prospectus, from which the following is extracted:

Except as otherwise provided below, the Series K First Preference Shares and the Series L First Preference Shares will be issued in a “book entry only” form and must be purchased or transferred through participants (“Participants”) in the depository service of CDS Clearing and Depository Services Inc. (“CDS”) or its nominee which include securities brokers and dealers, banks and trust companies. On the Closing Date, the Corporation will cause a global certificate representing the Series K First Preference Shares to be delivered to, and registered in the name of, CDS or its nominee. Except as otherwise provided below, no purchaser of Series K First Preference Shares or Series L First Preference Shares will be entitled to a certificate or other instrument from the Corporation or CDS evidencing that purchaser’s ownership, and no purchaser will be shown on the records maintained by CDS except through a book entry account of a Participant acting on behalf of the purchaser. Each purchaser of Series K First Preference Shares or Series L First Preference Shares will receive a customer confirmation of purchase from the registered dealer from which the Series K First Preference Shares or Series L First Preference Shares are purchased in accordance with the practices and procedures of the dealer. The practices of registered dealers may vary, but generally customer confirmations are issued promptly after execution of a customer order.

So what this means is that CDS has been notified, at which point Fortis has taken no further action to disseminate the information; refusing even to answer direct questions to their Investor Relations Department.

This is ridiculous. This is selective disclosure – perhaps not in law, but for all practical purposes this means that CDS (an entity controlled by the Toronto Stock Exchange) and the brokerages (who are “participants” in CDS) are getting notification of the news and are then advising clients at some later time when they damn well choose.

As far as interested investors and advisors are concerned, I’ve looked up how to get access to the CDS Advisory Bulletins:

The Advisory Bulletins service provides issuers an additional facility to communicate extraordinary details related to pending, ongoing or completed entitlements and corporate actions.

Delivery: Web, MT564/MT568 (ISO 15022)

Depending upon the nature of the message, the details of the bulletin will also be delivered via MT564 – Entitlements Notification and MT568 – Entitlements Narrative message.

Pricing: $1,125

Access the product sheet.

Contact us for pricing and other information

Non – CDS Participant Inquiries for CDS Innovation /TMX Datalinx
Email: datasales@tmx.com

CDS Participant & Issuer Inquiries
Client Relationship Managers cdscdccrelationshipmgmt@tmx.com

I have written to the Exchange:

What is the cost to subscribe to the captioned service? May these bulletins be purchased individually?

There is nothing filed regarding this matter on SEDAR, that bastion of brokerage privilege. Fortis seems very eager to pad the profits of TMX Group Limited!

I’m sure Fortis is operating within the letter of the laws and regulations and I’m sure they’ve got large legal bills to prove it. But I consider the lack of immediate public disclosure – which is standard for its competitors, I can’t think of a single other exception to this practice off the top of my head – to be contrary to the spirit of the regulations.

Given the obsession of Fortis management with keeping this information strictly under wraps, to the extent of refusing to answer a direct question regarding the reset rate when selective disclosure has already been made, I am unable to publish a formal recommendation regarding whether FTS.PR.K security holders should convert or hold their shares.

Market Action

February 4, 2019

unicorn_190204
Click for Big

TXPR closed at 629.97, up 0.53% on the day. Volume of 2.22-million was painlessly average in the context of the past thirty days.

CPD closed at 12.59, up 0.24% on the day. Volume of 89,873 was low in the context of the past thirty days.

ZPR closed at 10.26, up 0.39% on the day. Volume of 108,534 was low in the context of the past thirty days.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5205 % 2,293.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5205 % 4,207.7
Floater 5.11 % 5.38 % 31,933 14.83 4 0.5205 % 2,424.9
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4063 % 3,222.0
SplitShare 4.91 % 4.79 % 70,717 3.98 8 0.4063 % 3,847.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4063 % 3,002.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.87 % 1.62 % 94,040 0.08 4 -0.3766 % 2,881.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.59 % 5.73 % 76,365 14.25 31 0.3060 % 2,968.8
FixedReset Disc 5.08 % 5.46 % 215,511 14.75 65 0.8089 % 2,233.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.38 % 6.39 % 94,474 8.14 27 -0.0813 % 2,947.7
FloatingReset 4.32 % 5.42 % 64,137 8.49 6 0.0280 % 2,440.3
FixedReset Prem 5.10 % 4.29 % 275,197 2.30 17 0.0693 % 2,528.2
FixedReset Bank Non 2.80 % 4.05 % 145,596 2.86 5 0.4424 % 2,589.8
FixedReset Ins Non 5.07 % 7.05 % 136,036 8.27 22 0.6046 % 2,196.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TD.PF.D FixedReset Disc -2.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 21.51
Evaluated at bid price : 21.51
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset Ins Non -2.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.04
Bid-YTW : 9.58 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc -2.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %
IFC.PR.F Deemed-Retractible -2.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 6.54 %
IFC.PR.E Deemed-Retractible -1.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.55
Bid-YTW : 6.57 %
IFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -1.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.36
Bid-YTW : 7.23 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc -1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 18.74
Evaluated at bid price : 18.74
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset Ins Non -1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.85
Bid-YTW : 8.87 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 23.59
Evaluated at bid price : 23.86
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 24.68
Evaluated at bid price : 24.99
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.47
Bid-YTW : 7.99 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 20.96
Evaluated at bid price : 20.96
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
BMO.PR.D FixedReset Disc 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 22.43
Evaluated at bid price : 23.09
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
POW.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 24.34
Evaluated at bid price : 24.65
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
EIT.PR.A SplitShare 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2024-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.59
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset Ins Non 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 7.60 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 22.06
Evaluated at bid price : 22.35
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 20.40
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 5.90 %
BMO.PR.C FixedReset Disc 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 22.89
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 19.80
Evaluated at bid price : 19.80
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 13.01
Evaluated at bid price : 13.01
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
NA.PR.E FixedReset Disc 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 20.69
Evaluated at bid price : 20.69
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset Disc 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 22.44
Evaluated at bid price : 23.12
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset Disc 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 19.25
Evaluated at bid price : 19.25
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset Bank Non 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.97
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 21.15
Evaluated at bid price : 21.15
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 21.45
Evaluated at bid price : 21.45
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 5.78 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non 1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.82
Bid-YTW : 6.52 %
BIP.PR.D FixedReset Disc 1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 22.03
Evaluated at bid price : 22.40
Bid-YTW : 6.23 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc 1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 19.65
Evaluated at bid price : 19.65
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non 1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.62
Bid-YTW : 7.72 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset Disc 1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 20.15
Evaluated at bid price : 20.15
Bid-YTW : 5.90 %
EMA.PR.F FixedReset Disc 1.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 19.90
Evaluated at bid price : 19.90
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset Disc 1.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 21.34
Evaluated at bid price : 21.34
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non 1.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 7.56 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset Disc 2.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 21.83
Evaluated at bid price : 22.35
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
BNS.PR.I FixedReset Disc 2.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 22.46
Evaluated at bid price : 23.33
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc 2.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 14.75
Evaluated at bid price : 14.75
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc 2.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 20.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 6.30 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset Disc 2.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 18.98
Evaluated at bid price : 18.98
Bid-YTW : 5.42 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset Ins Non 2.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.15
Bid-YTW : 7.92 %
MFC.PR.Q FixedReset Ins Non 2.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.85
Bid-YTW : 6.84 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset Disc 2.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset Ins Non 3.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.93
Bid-YTW : 6.84 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non 3.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.60
Bid-YTW : 9.07 %
RY.PR.S FixedReset Disc 3.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 21.86
Evaluated at bid price : 22.33
Bid-YTW : 4.91 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset Disc 3.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 21.27
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 6.25 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset Disc 4.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 13.90
Evaluated at bid price : 13.90
Bid-YTW : 6.27 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.T FixedReset Disc 146,390 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 23.15
Evaluated at bid price : 25.02
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
TRP.PR.K FixedReset Disc 131,830 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.37
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
TD.PF.L FixedReset Prem 104,655 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
TD.PF.I FixedReset Disc 95,725 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 22.38
Evaluated at bid price : 23.03
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
PWF.PR.R Perpetual-Discount 80,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 24.12
Evaluated at bid price : 24.47
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 72,968 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 22.99
Evaluated at bid price : 23.38
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %
There were 23 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 20.55 – 22.80
Spot Rate : 2.2500
Average : 1.2395

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 7.05 %

BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.01 – 18.65
Spot Rate : 1.6400
Average : 0.9472

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 17.01
Evaluated at bid price : 17.01
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %

MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 19.00 – 20.50
Spot Rate : 1.5000
Average : 0.8446

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 7.56 %

RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc Quote: 21.20 – 22.45
Spot Rate : 1.2500
Average : 0.7189

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %

TD.PF.D FixedReset Disc Quote: 21.51 – 22.60
Spot Rate : 1.0900
Average : 0.6121

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 21.51
Evaluated at bid price : 21.51
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %

TRP.PR.D FixedReset Disc Quote: 18.25 – 19.20
Spot Rate : 0.9500
Average : 0.5320

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-02-04
Maturity Price : 18.25
Evaluated at bid price : 18.25
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %

MAPF

MAPF Performance: January 2019

Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund’s Net Asset Value per Unit as of the close January 31, 2019, was $8.5108.

Returns to January 31, 2019
Period MAPF BMO-CM “50” Preferred Share Index TXPR*
Total Return
CPD – according to Blackrock
One Month -2.03% -0.93% -0.50% N/A
Three Months -12.85% -9.07% -7.93% N/A
One Year -15.86% -11.72% -9.81% -10.37%
Two Years (annualized) +0.72% +0.39% +0.02% N/A
Three Years (annualized) +11.35% +7.96% +7.51% +7.00%
Four Years (annualized) +0.72% +0.61% -0.19% N/A
Five Years (annualized) +1.52% +0.48% +0.06% -0.36%
Six Years (annualized) +0.66% +0.20% -0.36% N/A
Seven Years (annualized) +1.54% +0.75% +0.30% N/A
Eight Years (annualized) +1.92% +1.62% +1.08% N/A
Nine Years (annualized) +3.57% +2.64% +1.93% N/A
Ten Years (annualized) +7.71% +4.70% +3.82% +3.28%
Eleven Years (annualized) +7.45% +2.86% +1.84%  
Twelve Years (annualized) +6.86% +2.16%    
Thirteen Years (annualized) +6.76% +2.31%    
Fourteen Years (annualized) +6.69% +2.40%    
Fifteen Years (annualized) +7.01% +2.54%    
Sixteen Years (annualized) +8.18% +2.91%    
Seventeen Years (annualized) +7.85% +2.91%    
MAPF returns assume reinvestment of distributions, and are shown after expenses but before fees.
The full name of the BMO-CM “50” index is the BMO Capital Markets “50” Preferred Share Index. It is calculated without accounting for fees.
“TXPR” is the S&P/TSX Preferred Share Index. It is calculated without accounting for fees, but does assume reinvestment of dividends.
CPD Returns are for the NAV and are after all fees and expenses. Reinvestment of dividends is assumed.
Figures for National Bank Preferred Equity Income Fund (formerly Omega Preferred Equity) (which are after all fees and expenses) for 1-, 3- and 12-months are -0.26%, -5.66% and -8.58%, respectively, according to Morningstar after all fees & expenses. Three year performance is +7.02%; five year is +0.96%; ten year is +4.50%
Manulife Preferred Income Class Adv has been terminated by Manulife.
Figures for Horizons Active Preferred Share ETF (HPR) (which are after all fees and expenses) for 1-, 3- and 12-months are -0.44%, -9.62% & -12.27%, respectively. Three year performance is +7.22%, five-year is +0.80%
Figures for National Bank Preferred Equity Fund (formerly Altamira Preferred Equity Fund) are -0.31%, -9.47% and -12.57% for one-, three- and twelve months, respectively. Three year performance is +6.58%; five-year is -0.04%.

Acccording to the fund’s fact sheet as of June 30, 2016, the fund’s inception date was October 30, 2015. I do not know how they justify this nonsensical statement, but will assume that prior performance is being suppressed in some perfectly legal manner that somebody at National considers ethical.

The figures for the NAV of BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred Share Index ETF (ZPR) is -11.54% for the past twelve months. Two year performance is -0.68%, three year is +8.55%, five year is -1.83%.
Figures for Natixis Canadian Preferred Share Class Series F (formerly NexGen Canadian Preferred Share Tax Managed Fund) are -2.05%, -9.34% and -12.33% for one-, three- and twelve-months, respectively. Three year performance is +5.26%; five-year is +1.54%
Figures for BMO Preferred Share Fund (advisor series) according to Morningstar are -0.89%, -9.99% and -13.65% for the past one-, three- and twelve-months, respectively. Three year performance is +4.06%; five-year is -1.86%.
Figures for PowerShares Canadian Preferred Share Index Class, Series F are -% for the past twelve months. The three-year figure is +%; five years is +%
Figures for the First Asset Preferred Share Investment Trust (PSF.UN) are no longer available since the fund has merged with First Asset Preferred Share ETF (FPR)
Figures for Lysander-Slater Preferred Share Dividend Fund according to Morningstar are -0.38%, -9.39% and -12.54% for the past one, three and twelve months, respectively. Three year performance is +5.00%.
Figures for the Desjardins Canadian Preferred Share Fund A Class, as reported by Morningstar are -0.62%, -8.82% and -11.94% for the past one, three and twelve months, respectively.

MAPF returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and are shown after expenses but before fees. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund or any other fund. For more information, see the fund’s main page. The fund is available either directly from Hymas Investment Management or through a brokerage account at Odlum Brown Limited.

The preferred share market has suffered a sharp reverse in the past four months, leaving a lot of room for outsized gains. The Seniority Spread (the interest-equivalent yield on reasonably liquid, investment-grade PerpetualDiscounts less the yield on long term corporate bonds) is extremely elevated (chart end-date 2019-1-11)

pl_190111_body_chart_1
Click for Big

Note that the Seniority Spread was 345bp on January 30. As a good practical example of the spreads between markets, consider that on November 19, CIU issued $385-million of 30-year bonds yielding 3.95%, at a time when issuing Straight Perpetuals would have cost them about 5.75% – a very wide spread even before considering the tax effect.

… and the relationship between five-year Canada yields and yields on investment-grade FixedResets is also well within what I consider ‘decoupled panic’ territory (chart end-date 2018-12-14):

pl_190111_body_chart_5
Click for Big

In addition, I feel that the yield on five-year Canadas is unsustainably low (it should be the inflation rate plus an increment of … 1%? 1.5%? 2.0%?),and a return to sustainable levels is likely over the medium term.

It seems clear that many market players are, wittingly or not, using FixedResets to speculate on future moves in the Canada 5-Year yield. This is excellent news for those who take market action based on fundamentals and the long term characteristics of the market because nobody can consistently time the markets. The speculators will, over the long run, lose money, handing it over to more sober investors.

FixedReset (Discount) performance on the month was -1.12% vs. PerpetualDiscounts of +1.01% in January; the two classes finally decoupled in mid-November after months of moving in lockstep.:

himi_indexperf_190131
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Floaters took another hit over the month, as they returned -7.21% for January and -21.13% for the past twelve months. But look at the long-term performance:

himi_floaterperf_190131
Click for Big

Some Assiduous Readers will be interested to observe that the ‘Quantitative Easing’ decline was not as bad as the ‘Credit Crunch’ decline, which took the sector down to the point where the 15-year cumulative total return was negative. I wrote about that at the time and still can’t get over it. Fifteen years!

But, as mentioned earlier with respect to FixedResets, it seems clear that Floaters are used, wittingly or otherwise, as a vehicle for speculation on the policy rate and Canada Prime.

As for the future, of course, it’s one thing to say that ‘spreads are unsustainable and so are government yields’ and it’s quite another to forecast just how and when a more economically sustainable environment will take effect. It could be years. There could be a reversal, particularly if Trump’s international trade policies cause a severe recession or even a depression. And, of course, I could be just plain wrong about the sustainability of the current environment. However, the sharp declines of the past two months clarify the market’s fears, which were unclear on October 29: the market is behaving more as if it fears falling interest rates rather than rising ones – although this does not explain the very high value of the Seniority Spread, discussed above.

Yields on preferred shares of all stripes are extremely high compared to those available from other investments of similar quality. A I told John Heinzl in an eMail interview in late November, the best advice I can offer investors remains Shut up and clip your coupons!

I think that a broad, sustainable rally in FixedResets will require higher five-year Canada yields (or a widespread expectation of them) … and although I’m sure this will happen eventually, it would be foolish to speculate on just when it will happen!

Calculation of MAPF Sustainable Income Per Unit
Month NAVPU Portfolio
Average
YTW
Leverage
Divisor
Securities
Average
YTW
Capital
Gains
Multiplier
Sustainable
Income
per
current
Unit
June, 2007 9.3114 5.16% 1.03 5.01% 1.3240 0.3524
September 9.1489 5.35% 0.98 5.46% 1.3240 0.3773
December, 2007 9.0070 5.53% 0.942 5.87% 1.3240 0.3993
March, 2008 8.8512 6.17% 1.047 5.89% 1.3240 0.3938
June 8.3419 6.034% 0.952 6.338% 1.3240 $0.3993
September 8.1886 7.108% 0.969 7.335% 1.3240 $0.4537
December, 2008 8.0464 9.24% 1.008 9.166% 1.3240 $0.5571
March 2009 $8.8317 8.60% 0.995 8.802% 1.3240 $0.5872
June 10.9846 7.05% 0.999 7.057% 1.3240 $0.5855
September 12.3462 6.03% 0.998 6.042% 1.3240 $0.5634
December 2009 10.5662 5.74% 0.981 5.851% 1.1141 $0.5549
March 2010 10.2497 6.03% 0.992 6.079% 1.1141 $0.5593
June 10.5770 5.96% 0.996 5.984% 1.1141 $0.5681
September 11.3901 5.43% 0.980 5.540% 1.1141 $0.5664
December 2010 10.7659 5.37% 0.993 5.408% 1.0298 $0.5654
March, 2011 11.0560 6.00% 0.994 5.964% 1.0298 $0.6403
June 11.1194 5.87% 1.018 5.976% 1.0298 $0.6453
September 10.2709 6.10%
Note
1.001 6.106% 1.0298 $0.6090
December, 2011 10.0793 5.63%
Note
1.031 5.805% 1.0000 $0.5851
March, 2012 10.3944 5.13%
Note
0.996 5.109% 1.0000 $0.5310
June 10.2151 5.32%
Note
1.012 5.384% 1.0000 $0.5500
September 10.6703 4.61%
Note
0.997 4.624% 1.0000 $0.4934
December, 2012 10.8307 4.24% 0.989 4.287% 1.0000 $0.4643
March, 2013 10.9033 3.87% 0.996 3.886% 1.0000 $0.4237
June 10.3261 4.81% 0.998 4.80% 1.0000 $0.4957
September 10.0296 5.62% 0.996 5.643% 1.0000 $0.5660
December, 2013 9.8717 6.02% 1.008 5.972% 1.0000 $0.5895
March, 2014 10.2233 5.55% 0.998 5.561% 1.0000 $0.5685
June 10.5877 5.09% 0.998 5.100% 1.0000 $0.5395
September 10.4601 5.28% 0.997 5.296% 1.0000 $0.5540
December, 2014 10.5701 4.83% 1.009 4.787% 1.0000 $0.5060
March, 2015 9.9573 4.99% 1.001 4.985% 1.0000 $0.4964
June, 2015 9.4181 5.55% 1.002 5.539% 1.0000 $0.5217
September 7.8140 6.98% 0.999 6.987% 1.0000 $0.5460
December, 2015 8.1379 6.85% 0.997 6.871% 1.0000 $0.5592
March, 2016 7.4416 7.79% 0.998 7.805% 1.0000 $0.5808
June 7.6704 7.67% 1.011 7.587% 1.0000 $0.5819
September 8.0590 7.35% 0.993 7.402% 1.0000 $0.5965
December, 2016 8.5844 7.24% 0.990 7.313% 1.0000 $0.6278
March, 2017 9.3984 6.26% 0.994 6.298% 1.0000 $0.5919
June 9.5313 6.41% 0.998 6.423% 1.0000 $0.6122
September 9.7129 6.56% 0.998 6.573% 1.0000 $0.6384
December, 2017 10.0566 6.06% 1.004 6.036% 1.0000 $0.6070
March, 2018 10.2701 6.22% 1.007 6.177% 1.0000 $0.6344
June 10.2518 6.22% 0.995 6.251% 1.0000 $0.6408
September 10.2965 6.62% 1.018 6.503% 1.0000 $0.6696
December, 2018 8.6875 7.16% 0.997 7.182% 1.0000 $0.6240
January, 2019 8.5108 7.51% 1.000 7.510% 1.0000 $0.6392
NAVPU is shown after quarterly distributions of dividend income and annual distribution of capital gains.
Portfolio YTW includes cash (or margin borrowing), with an assumed interest rate of 0.00%
The Leverage Divisor indicates the level of cash in the account: if the portfolio is 1% in cash, the Leverage Divisor will be 0.99
Securities YTW divides “Portfolio YTW” by the “Leverage Divisor” to show the average YTW on the securities held; this assumes that the cash is invested in (or raised from) all securities held, in proportion to their holdings.
The Capital Gains Multiplier adjusts for the effects of Capital Gains Dividends. On 2009-12-31, there was a capital gains distribution of $1.989262 which is assumed for this purpose to have been reinvested at the final price of $10.5662. Thus, a holder of one unit pre-distribution would have held 1.1883 units post-distribution; the CG Multiplier reflects this to make the time-series comparable. Note that Dividend Distributions are not assumed to be reinvested.
Sustainable Income is the resultant estimate of the fund’s dividend income per current unit, before fees and expenses. Note that a “current unit” includes reinvestment of prior capital gains; a unitholder would have had the calculated sustainable income with only, say, 0.9 units in the past which, with reinvestment of capital gains, would become 1.0 current units.
DeemedRetractibles are comprised of all Straight Perpetuals (both PerpetualDiscount and PerpetualPremium) issued by BMO, BNS, CM, ELF, GWO, HSB, IAG, MFC, NA, RY, SLF and TD, which are not exchangable into common at the option of the company (definition refined in May, 2011). These issues are analyzed as if their prospectuses included a requirement to redeem at par on or prior to 2022-1-31 (banks) or the Deemed Maturity date for insurers and insurance holding companies (see below)), in addition to the call schedule explicitly defined. See the Deemed Retractible Review: September 2016 for the rationale behind this analysis.

The same reasoning is also applied to FixedResets from these issuers, other than explicitly defined NVCC from banks.

The Deemed Maturity date for insurers was set at 2022-1-31 at the commencement of the process in February, 2011. It was extended to 2025-1-31 in April, 2013 and to 2030-1-31 in December, 2018
Yields for September, 2011, to January, 2012, were calculated by imposing a cap of 10% on the yields of YLO issues held, in order to avoid their extremely high calculated yields distorting the calculation and to reflect the uncertainty in the marketplace that these yields will be realized. From February to September 2012, yields on these issues have been set to zero. All YLO issues held were sold in October 2012.

These calculations were performed assuming constant contemporary GOC-5 and 3-Month Bill rates, as follows:

Canada Yields Assumed in Calculations
Month-end GOC-5 3-Month Bill
September, 2015 0.78% 0.40%
December, 2015 0.71% 0.46%
March, 2016 0.70% 0.44%
June 0.57% 0.47%
September 0.58% 0.53%
December, 2016 1.16% 0.47%
March, 2017 1.08% 0.55%
June 1.35% 0.69%
September 1.79% 0.97%
December, 2017 1.83% 1.00%
March, 2018 2.06% 1.08%
June 1.95% 1.22%
September 2.33% 1.55%
December, 2018 1.88% 1.65%
January, 2019 1.89% 1.63%

Significant positions were held in NVCC non-compliant regulated FixedReset issues on January 31, 2019; all of these currently have their yields calculated with the presumption that they will be called by the issuers at par prior to 2022-1-31 (banks) or 2030-1-31 (insurers and insurance holding companies) or on a different date (SplitShares, when present in the portfolio) This presents another complication in the calculation of sustainable yield, which also assumes that redemption proceeds will be reinvested at the same rate. It will also be noted that my analysis of likely insurance industry regulation as updated is not given much weight by the market.

I will also note that the sustainable yield calculated above is not directly comparable with any yield calculation currently reported by any other preferred share fund as far as I am aware. The Sustainable Yield depends on:
i) Calculating Yield-to-Worst for each instrument and using this yield for reporting purposes;
ii) Using the contemporary value of Five-Year Canadas to estimate dividends after reset for FixedResets. The assumption regarding the five-year Canada rate has become more important as the proportion of low-spread FixedResets in the portfolio has increased.
iii) Making the assumption that deeply discounted NVCC non-compliant issues from both banks and insurers, both Straight and FixedResets will be redeemed at par on their DeemedMaturity date as discussed above.