December 9, 2011

Moody’s downgraded some French banks:

BNP Paribas SA (BNP), Societe Generale SA and Credit Agricole SA (ACA) had their credit ratings cut by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited funding constraints and deteriorating economic conditions amid Europe’s debt crisis.

Moody’s cut the long-term debt ratings for BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole by one level to Aa3, the fourth-highest investment grade. Societe Generale’s rating was cut to A1, the fifth highest. Moody’s also cut the standalone assessments of financial strength of the three banks, while saying there’s a “very high” chance they will get state support if needed.

“Liquidity and funding conditions have deteriorated significantly,” the ratings company said in a statement. The likelihood that they “will face further funding pressures has risen in line with the worsening European debt crisis.”

The US MMFs have awesome influence:

The eight largest prime U.S. money- market mutual funds cut holdings in French banks by 68 percent in November, shifting investments to Swiss, Swedish, Canadian and Japanese banks.

French bank holdings declined by $11.7 billion to $5.56 billion, according to an analysis of fund disclosures by the Bloomberg Risk newsletter. The eight funds have reduced French bank debt by $76.8 billion in the past 12 months.

Senator Snowe is upset with Amazon:

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) should end its price- checking promotion because it gives consumers an incentive to gather price data from small retailers and leave stores without spending money, said Senator Olympia Snowe.

The world’s largest online retailer is offering a 5 percent discount to entice users to try a new mobile application that compares prices with physical retailers. The app, called Price Check, allows shoppers to look up Amazon’s prices by scanning products at a store using their phones.

“Amazon’s promotion — paying consumers to visit small businesses and leave empty-handed — is an attack on Main Street businesses that employ workers in our communities,” Snowe, a Maine Republican, said in a statement yesterday. “Small businesses are fighting everyday to compete with giant retailers, such as Amazon, and incentivizing consumers to spy on local shops is a bridge too far.”

That’s right, Senator, competition is un-American.

However, the issue highlights something I’ve been pondering for the past ten-odd years: what is the future of retail? I have a friend who retails computers: he pays more for his inventory than a retail customer can buy for at the big guys. And we’re seeing more and more of this type of thing all of the time.

My suspicion is that retail stores will eventually become show-rooms. For anything that’s not perishable, you’ll go into a store, look at the merchandise and if you like it – you’ll place an order. Then you pick it up a week later – or, perhaps, have it delivered for an extra five bucks.

There’s aways a possibility that retail will disappear completely – for non-perishable items – but I don’t think that will happen. You can’t covet what you don’t know about and people always want to see things. So manufacturers (like Apple) and distributors (like Amazon) will (i) obviously, pay a commission on sales, and (ii) pay a fee for shelf space (which has been the case for years in the grocery industry and, I’m sure, lots of other places). Maybe it’s a relatively low shelf-space fee, then a huge commission on the first sale or two, then the regular commission on more; just to keep the retailers honest.

Doesn’t this make sense? Why should I pay an extra $100 for a television, just so that Future Shop can keep fifty of each model stacked behind their enormous store on expensive urban land? Is it really worth that much to get same-day delivery of my television?

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 7bp, FixedResets down 3bp and DeemedRetractibles winning 8bp. Volatility was OK. Volume was very low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.9941 % 2,052.5
FixedFloater 4.79 % 4.50 % 35,352 17.23 1 1.7949 % 3,220.0
Floater 3.23 % 3.52 % 65,370 18.40 3 -0.9941 % 2,216.2
OpRet 4.90 % 1.51 % 59,626 1.43 6 -0.1664 % 2,473.5
SplitShare 5.79 % 6.57 % 59,850 5.12 3 0.3249 % 2,534.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1664 % 2,261.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.51 % 3.11 % 91,299 0.86 18 0.0348 % 2,161.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.23 % 5.16 % 105,461 14.89 12 0.0689 % 2,313.0
FixedReset 5.10 % 3.08 % 223,008 2.50 64 -0.0282 % 2,340.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.03 % 4.28 % 194,789 3.32 46 0.0818 % 2,230.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.A Floater -2.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-12-09
Maturity Price : 19.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 2.78 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-12-09
Maturity Price : 23.76
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
CIU.PR.B FixedReset -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.91
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %
HSB.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.63
Bid-YTW : 4.71 %
GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.99
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater 1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-12-09
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.85
Bid-YTW : 4.50 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
ENB.PR.D FixedReset 66,136 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-12-09
Maturity Price : 23.16
Evaluated at bid price : 25.17
Bid-YTW : 3.61 %
RY.PR.H Deemed-Retractible 65,510 Nesbitt crossed 60,000 at 26.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-05-24
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.75
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %
MFC.PR.E FixedReset 51,240 Nesbitt bought 16,500 from RBC at 25.70.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.79
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset 36,145 Nesbitt bought 12,400 from RBC at 25.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.97
Bid-YTW : 3.17 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset 33,837 TD crossed 25,200 at 26.06.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.05
Bid-YTW : 3.13 %
TD.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible 26,500 Scotia crossed 25,000 at 26.82.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-01-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.84
Bid-YTW : 3.01 %
There were 19 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.25 – 24.82
Spot Rate : 0.5700
Average : 0.4026

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-12-09
Maturity Price : 23.76
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %

CIU.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 26.91 – 27.45
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.4223

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.91
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %

PWF.PR.A Floater Quote: 19.00 – 20.00
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.8882

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-12-09
Maturity Price : 19.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 2.78 %

GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.99 – 26.30
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2142

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.99
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %

BAM.PR.O OpRet Quote: 25.65 – 26.10
Spot Rate : 0.4500
Average : 0.3557

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2013-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.65
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %

GWO.PR.J FixedReset Quote: 26.41 – 26.74
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2407

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.41
Bid-YTW : 2.99 %

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