PrefBlog

DBRS has announced that it:

has today maintained the Negative trend on the senior and subordinated debt ratings of the Royal Bank of Canada, The Toronto-Dominion Bank, the Bank of Nova Scotia, the Bank of Montreal, the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, the National Bank of Canada and their subsidiaries. Additionally, the Negative trend has been maintained on related short-term ratings that might be affected by a long-term rating change under DBRS methodologies. The ratings were previously revised to Negative from Stable on May 20, 2015, to reflect the declining likelihood of systemic support. For details on the rating actions on specific banks, please see their separate press releases.

The maintenance of the Negative trend reflects DBRS’s view that ongoing changes in Canadian legislation and regulation still indicate that the potential for timely systemic support for these six banks that DBRS considers systemically important institutions is declining, leading to a likely change in DBRS’s support assessment to SA3 from SA2 for these banks. Currently, the six banks’ final ratings benefit from an uplift of one notch above their intrinsic assessments because of the SA2 support assessment.

The legislation enacting the bank recapitalization, or bail-in, regime is moving forward, but DBRS does not yet have sufficient clarity on the details of the implementation to remove the benefit of systemic support from the affected ratings. Most recently, the Budget Implementation Act (Bill C-15) passed on June 8, 2016, included proposed amendments to existing legislation to enable the appropriate statutory powers for the bail-in regime. According to the Department of Finance Canada, the proposed amendments include permitting the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions to designate the domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs) to which the bail-in regime would apply, providing new powers for the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation (CDIC) to carry out a bail-in by converting the eligible debt of a D-SIB that was determined to be non-viable into common shares, enabling CDIC to resolve a failed bank by taking temporary control of a non-viable bank to carry out a bail-in conversion, updating the process for investors to seek redress and revising the amount of minimum regulatory capital and debt subject to the new bail-in conversion power for D-SIBs (Department of Finance Canada, Bill C-15 – Budget Implementation Act 2016, No. 1 – Part 4: Various Measures, http://www.fin.gc.ca/pub/C15/04-eng.asp (May 10, 2016)). This will require amendments to be made to the Bank Act, the CDIC Act, the Financial Administration Act, the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act and the Winding-up and Restructuring Act.

This was reiterated in statements for each of the Big Six Banks … with some commentary regarding the highly topical housing costs issue:

BNS:

DBRS remains concerned over the significant appreciation seen in housing prices, particularly in the greater Vancouver and Toronto areas. Nonetheless, Scotiabank’s Canadian residential mortgage portfolio appears conservatively underwritten or is insured. Indeed, the Bank purchased bulk insurance on an additional portion of this portfolio during Q2 2016. Following this additional purchase, 62% of Scotiabank’s Canadian residential mortgage portfolio is now insured, while the loan-to-value of the uninsured portion is very conservative at 51%. Alberta, the province most exposed to the energy sector, represents 16% of the total residential mortgage portfolio and is primarily insured.

RY:

DBRS remains concerned about the significant appreciation seen in housing prices, particularly in the greater Vancouver and Toronto areas. Nonetheless, RBC’s Canadian residential mortgage portfolio appears conservatively underwritten or is insured. Indeed, 46% of RBC’s Canadian residential mortgage portfolio is now insured, while the loan-to-value ratio of the uninsured portion is conservative at 56%. Alberta, the most exposed province to the energy sector, represents 16% of the total residential mortgage portfolio and is primarily insured.

CM:

The Bank’s overall asset quality remains strong with impaired loans and provisions remaining at very low levels. CIBC’s overall credit quality benefits from the performance of its large and low-risk residential mortgage portfolio, which is 61% insured. However, DBRS remains concerned about the significant appreciation in housing prices, particularly in and around Toronto and Vancouver. Meanwhile, CIBC’s outstanding loan balances to the troubled resource sector are very manageable, with oil and gas comprising approximately 2% of loans and mining comprising less than 1%.

BMO:

DBRS remains concerned over the significant appreciation seen in housing prices, particularly in and around Vancouver and Toronto. Nonetheless, BMO’s residential mortgage portfolio appears conservatively underwritten or is insured. Specifically, 59% of BMO’s Canadian residential mortgage portfolio is insured, while the loan-to-value of the uninsured portion is a very conservative 57%. Meanwhile, loss rates for the past four quarters have been less than one basis point. Alberta, the province most exposed to the energy sector, represents 16% of the total residential mortgage portfolio and is primarily insured. The resource sector also remains challenged, but overall exposures to oil & gas and mining total less than 3% of the total loan portfolio.

NA:

National’s currently strong earnings power benefits from a very good revenue mix, modestly improving expense levels and generally low credit costs. However, National reported two issues in 2016 that have negatively affected earnings, including the $164 million pre-tax write-down of its investment in Maple Financial Group (MFG) and a $250 million pre-tax sectoral provision related to its oil & gas portfolio. Please see the DBRS commentaries on these two events dated May 5, 2016, and February 8, 2016, for more information.

TD:

TD’s risk profile remains strong, as evidenced by its still quite favourable credit quality indicators, though DBRS views current levels as likely unsustainable, given how low they are compared with historical norms. Similar to peers, the Bank’s oil & gas portfolio was pressured in recent periods but remains highly manageable, representing less than 1% of total loans. Moreover, DBRS anticipates seeing some signs of deterioration in other parts of the loan portfolio in the near to intermediate term, given the above-average debt levels of Canadian consumers, rapidly rising housing prices and expected credit quality trend reversion. Importantly, DBRS remains comforted by TD’s track record and disciplined approach to risk management.

This entry was posted on Thursday, July 28th, 2016 at 7:55 pm and is filed under Issue Comments. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.