The economy added 256,000 jobs in December, seasonally adjusted, the Labor Department reported on Friday. It was a better-than-expected number amid a labor market that has been slowly cooling for two years. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1 percent.
…
- Wages still strong: Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent over the month, in line with expectations, amounting to a 3.9 percent gain since last year.
- Growth powered by the usual suspects: Health care, government, social assistance, and leisure and hospitality were the main drivers of the strong showing. But retail returned from what had been a largely flat year in the sector, adding 43,000 jobs.
- Labor force participation recedes: The share of people between the ages of 25 and 54 who were either working or looking for work edged down to 83.4 percent, and is now half a point lower than the 83.9 percent it reached earlier last year. The drop was led entirely by men; the participation rate for prime-age women rose.
…
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which underpins a host of corporate and consumer loans, rose 0.17 percentage points for the week, a big move in that market. On Friday, the 10-year yield hit its highest level since late 2023, the last time investors fretted about government spending getting out of control.This week, the 30-year mortgage rate, which typically tracks the 10-year Treasury yield, reached its highest level since early July. The S&P 500 index tumbled 1.9 percent for the week, with most of that fall on Friday as the bond tumult spread to other markets. The dollar continued its long-running rise, as the expectation of higher interest rates in the United States maintained its allure for investors around the world, even as yields in other bond markets lurched higher.
In Britain, worries over the country’s borrowing needs contributed to a sharp sell-off in the nation’s government bonds, known as gilts, with the yield on the 10-year note rising 0.24 percentage points, on course for its biggest one-week move in a year. In Germany, a benchmark for Europe’s debt markets, the yield on 10-year government notes, or bunds, rose 0.17 percentage points.
Canada’s economy added nearly four times the number of jobs forecasted for December and the unemployment rate surprisingly ticked down to 6.7 per cent, data showed on Friday, giving the central bank breathing room to determine the pace of further rate cuts.
The economy added a net 90,900 jobs last month, with almost two-thirds coming from full-time work, according to Statistics Canada. The job gains – third time in the past four months – were spread across several industries, the agency said.
…
The jobs data pushed down market bets on a likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut later this month from 70 per cent to 50 per cent.The Canadian dollar weakened further after the data trading down 0.22 per cent at 1.4427 to the U.S. dollar, or 69.31 U.S. cents.
…
The average hourly wage growth for permanent employees slowed to an annual rate of 3.7 per cent from 3.9 per cent in November, Statistics Canada said. The closely-watched wage growth rate was the slowest since April 2022.In further sign of the job market firming up, Canada’s employment rate, or the proportion of the population that is employed, increased for the first time since January 2023.
… and the markets did their thing:
U.S. and Canadian stocks sold off on Friday, with the S&P 500 erasing its 2025 gains, after an upbeat American jobs report stoked fresh inflation fears, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve will be cautious in cutting interest rates this year. Investors also pared bets that the Bank of Canada will cut its trend-setting interest rate again later this month after a surprisingly strong jobs report this side of the border. Bond yields were up sharply in both countries.
…
Pressuring stocks, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note touched 5% – its highest since November 2023, but slightly retreated to 4.966%.Canada’s closely watched 5-year bond yield was up 13 basis points by late day to its highest level since mid-November.
Swaps post-jobs announcement
After the mid-December inflation announcement, the December 2025 swap rate was 2.78% … so this figure has actually declined over the past three weeks odd.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.5560 % | 2,314.7 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.5560 % | 4,439.7 |
| Floater | 7.53 % | 7.82 % | 32,667 | 11.60 | 4 | 0.5560 % | 2,558.6 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0299 % | 3,633.7 |
| SplitShare | 4.76 % | 4.69 % | 47,897 | 0.78 | 8 | 0.0299 % | 4,339.5 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0299 % | 3,385.8 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.4939 % | 2,901.4 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.92 % | 6.07 % | 55,649 | 13.83 | 32 | -0.4939 % | 3,163.9 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.34 % | 6.62 % | 100,583 | 12.73 | 50 | -0.1216 % | 2,848.4 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.85 % | 5.92 % | 64,874 | 14.00 | 21 | -0.7589 % | 3,095.1 |
| FloatingReset | 6.30 % | 6.36 % | 36,419 | 13.37 | 3 | 0.0323 % | 3,408.0 |
| FixedReset Prem | 5.69 % | 5.49 % | 165,518 | 3.03 | 12 | -0.2842 % | 2,592.0 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.1216 % | 2,911.7 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.17 % | 6.10 % | 73,887 | 13.68 | 14 | 0.0528 % | 2,923.9 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| MFC.PR.B | Insurance Straight | -5.19 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 19.74 Evaluated at bid price : 19.74 Bid-YTW : 5.96 % |
| GWO.PR.Q | Insurance Straight | -3.95 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 20.65 Evaluated at bid price : 20.65 Bid-YTW : 6.30 % |
| GWO.PR.N | FixedReset Ins Non | -3.88 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 15.62 Evaluated at bid price : 15.62 Bid-YTW : 6.92 % |
| PWF.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | -2.97 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 23.25 Evaluated at bid price : 23.55 Bid-YTW : 6.27 % |
| SLF.PR.E | Insurance Straight | -1.73 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 20.40 Evaluated at bid price : 20.40 Bid-YTW : 5.56 % |
| MFC.PR.C | Insurance Straight | -1.63 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 19.95 Evaluated at bid price : 19.95 Bid-YTW : 5.70 % |
| MFC.PR.J | FixedReset Ins Non | -1.60 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 23.18 Evaluated at bid price : 24.55 Bid-YTW : 5.98 % |
| BN.PR.M | Perpetual-Discount | -1.40 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 19.08 Evaluated at bid price : 19.08 Bid-YTW : 6.29 % |
| IFC.PR.I | Insurance Straight | -1.24 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 22.63 Evaluated at bid price : 23.01 Bid-YTW : 5.90 % |
| IFC.PR.F | Insurance Straight | -1.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 22.27 Evaluated at bid price : 22.55 Bid-YTW : 5.92 % |
| BIP.PR.A | FixedReset Disc | 1.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 23.80 Evaluated at bid price : 24.51 Bid-YTW : 6.81 % |
| SLF.PR.J | FloatingReset | 1.18 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 17.15 Evaluated at bid price : 17.15 Bid-YTW : 6.73 % |
| BN.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 1.21 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 18.37 Evaluated at bid price : 18.37 Bid-YTW : 7.18 % |
| BN.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | 1.71 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 20.80 Evaluated at bid price : 20.80 Bid-YTW : 6.91 % |
| MFC.PR.I | FixedReset Ins Non | 2.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 23.32 Evaluated at bid price : 24.70 Bid-YTW : 6.11 % |
| IFC.PR.E | Insurance Straight | 2.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 22.03 Evaluated at bid price : 22.50 Bid-YTW : 5.81 % |
| MFC.PR.M | FixedReset Ins Non | 2.05 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 22.19 Evaluated at bid price : 22.85 Bid-YTW : 6.10 % |
| CCS.PR.C | Insurance Straight | 2.41 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 21.44 Evaluated at bid price : 21.70 Bid-YTW : 5.80 % |
| CU.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | 2.79 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 21.86 Evaluated at bid price : 22.10 Bid-YTW : 6.02 % |
| PWF.PR.Z | Perpetual-Discount | 7.51 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 21.18 Evaluated at bid price : 21.18 Bid-YTW : 6.10 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 228,976 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 19.90 Evaluated at bid price : 19.90 Bid-YTW : 5.74 % |
| BIP.PR.A | FixedReset Disc | 160,309 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 23.80 Evaluated at bid price : 24.51 Bid-YTW : 6.81 % |
| TD.PF.C | FixedReset Prem | 118,400 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2025-03-02 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.95 Bid-YTW : 4.56 % |
| BN.PR.K | Floater | 98,010 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 12.35 Evaluated at bid price : 12.35 Bid-YTW : 7.82 % |
| BN.PR.B | Floater | 78,105 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 12.29 Evaluated at bid price : 12.29 Bid-YTW : 7.86 % |
| POW.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 53,983 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-01-10 Maturity Price : 22.84 Evaluated at bid price : 23.12 Bid-YTW : 6.08 % |
| There were 33 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| GWO.PR.H | Insurance Straight | Quote: 20.51 – 21.75 Spot Rate : 1.2400 Average : 0.7708 YTW SCENARIO |
| PWF.PR.L | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 21.02 – 22.60 Spot Rate : 1.5800 Average : 1.1953 YTW SCENARIO |
| ENB.PR.B | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 19.00 – 20.00 Spot Rate : 1.0000 Average : 0.6193 YTW SCENARIO |
| BN.PR.R | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 18.20 – 19.50 Spot Rate : 1.3000 Average : 0.9227 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.B | Insurance Straight | Quote: 19.74 – 20.75 Spot Rate : 1.0100 Average : 0.6604 YTW SCENARIO |
| PWF.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 23.55 – 24.45 Spot Rate : 0.9000 Average : 0.5868 YTW SCENARIO |