January 7, 2009

There is speculation that huge issuance may saturate the market for government bonds in the UK. Reception of a €6-billion issue of 10-year Bunds was sufficiently poor that the auction is being labelled a failure:

Germany’s sale of 10-year bunds lured the least demand in six months as investors shied away from a flood of government securities.

Investors bid for 5.2 billion euros of the bonds offered today, a level of demand that prompted the Bundesbank to retain 32 percent of the securities, according to the central bank’s Web site.

The press release tells the tale. A momentary blip? Or a sign of a turn in the tide from the flight-to-safety? Across the Curve notes “flight from risk-averse assets” and a tightening of credit spreads. Place yer bets, gents!

The Fed announced today that the Money Market Investor Funding Facility is being expanded:

the set of institutions eligible to participate in the MMIFF was expanded from U.S. money market mutual funds to also include a number of other money market investors. The newly eligible participants include U.S.-based securities-lending cash-collateral reinvestment funds, portfolios, and accounts (securities lenders); and U.S.-based investment funds that operate in a manner similar to money market mutual funds, such as certain local government investment pools, common trust funds, and collective investment funds.

the Board authorized the adjustment of several of the economic parameters of the MMIFF, including the minimum yield on assets eligible to be sold to the MMIFF, to enable the program to remain a viable source of backup liquidity for money market investors even at very low levels of money market interest rates

The MMIFF is designed to serve as a source of liquidity to money market mutual funds and other eligible money market investment vehicles, thereby increasing their ability to meet redemption requests and their willingness to invest in money market instruments, particularly term money market instruments. Under the MMIFF, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York provides a credit facility to a series of special purpose vehicles (SPVs) established by the private sector. The SPVs will purchase certain U.S. dollar-denominated, highly rated, short-term certificates of deposit, bank notes, and commercial paper from eligible money market investors

Speaking of the US, Across the Curve has some interesting colour today:

I had an interesting conversation with a relative value trader in the Treasury market. He loves the 2 year note at 80 basis points. With a zero handle, they would seem like an instrument which should have step child status.

However, he notes that with the ride down the yield curve and the positive carry from financing them at virtually zero, it is as if you own them at 1.75 percent one year from now.

That is the breakeven on a one year coupon. He makes the valid point that for that 1.75 percent to lose money one would need to posit a funds rate close to one percent. Given the tenor of comments from the central Bank, that does not seem likely.

Wild. Riding the yield curve from a 80bp starting point at a time when Treasury auction issuance is at record levels and there is fear of auction failures. This situation is not sustainable.

There’s an interesting development in US distressed mortgages:

Private National Mortgage Acceptance Company LLC, an investor in troubled mortgages run by a former president of Countrywide Financial Corp., bought $558 million of home loans that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. acquired last year after First National Bank of Nevada collapsed.

Known as PennyMac and led by Stanford Kurland, the firm is paying an average of 30 cents to 50 cents on the dollar for the loans and the FDIC is sharing some of the risk, spokesman Andrew Chang said.

“This asset sale did not provide any loss-sharing,” said FDIC spokesman David Barr in an interview about the PennyMac deal. “It is a participation sale, however, which means the FDIC benefits from cash-flow generated from these loans.”

The FDIC will receive 80 percent of the loan’s cash flow until a certain, undisclosed level of payments are received, then 60 percent thereafter, he said.

David Barr’s comments are disingenuous. “Participation” is equivalent to “Loss Sharing” – full stop.

PerpetualDiscounts managed to eke out another gain today – and, much to my surprise, so did fixed-resets! I would have thought that continued issuance would have pounded down the sector, but it is showing significant resilience. And I still have to fiddle with the damn programming of the damn tables.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 7.08 % 7.53 % 29,318 13.49 2 -1.4428 % 864.7
FixedFloater 7.50 % 7.27 % 149,162 13.32 8 0.8064 % 1,362.8
Floater 5.56 % 5.36 % 34,542 14.91 4 -0.8545 % 1,097.9
OpRet 5.37 % 4.67 % 121,876 3.92 15 -0.0960 % 1,998.6
SplitShare 6.07 % 9.04 % 81,718 4.17 15 0.3169 % 1,833.2
Interest-Bearing 7.16 % 11.50 % 46,525 0.93 2 -0.8116 % 1,975.8
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2627 % 1,553.5
Perpetual-Discount 6.89 % 6.95 % 237,780 12.65 71 0.2627 % 1,430.8
FixedReset 5.93 % 4.97 % 742,368 15.06 18 0.2337 % 1,799.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BCE.PR.Y Ratchet -4.83 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 8.13 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 25.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 13.80
Yield to Worst : 8.13 %

BAM.PR.K Floater -3.71 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.11 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 10.11
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 10.11
Yield to Worst : 6.11 %

SLF.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -3.41 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.18 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 16.71
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 16.71
Yield to Worst : 7.18 %

BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -3.02 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 10.23 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 25.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 11.25
Yield to Worst : 10.23 %

BNS.PR.L Perpetual-Discount -2.84 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.47 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 17.45
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 17.45
Yield to Worst : 6.47 %

LFE.PR.A SplitShare -2.60 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.26 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2012-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 9.35
Yield to Worst : 7.26 %

BAM.PR.B Floater -2.45 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.21 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 9.96
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 9.96
Yield to Worst : 6.21 %

MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -2.34 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.48 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 17.56
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 17.56
Yield to Worst : 6.48 %

TD.PR.P Perpetual-Discount -2.20 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.58 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 20.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Yield to Worst : 6.58 %

PPL.PR.A SplitShare -2.08 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 8.18 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2012-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 8.96
Yield to Worst : 8.18 %

BNS.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -2.03 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.49 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 17.40
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 17.40
Yield to Worst : 6.49 %

BAM.PR.J OpRet -1.82 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 10.93 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 17.22
Yield to Worst : 10.93 %

FIG.PR.A Interest-Bearing -1.81 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 12.11 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2014-12-31
Maturity Price : 10.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 7.61
Yield to Worst : 12.11 %

RY.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.79 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.40 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 18.66
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 18.66
Yield to Worst : 6.40 %

POW.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.65 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.37 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 19.13
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 19.13
Yield to Worst : 7.37 %

PWF.PR.M FixedReset -1.61 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 5.52 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 24.45
Probability of Maturity : 66.80 %

Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Yield to Worst : 5.52 %

CM.PR.I Perpetual-Discount -1.52 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.03 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 16.79
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 16.79
Yield to Worst : 7.03 %

HSB.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.45 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.28 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 17.70
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 17.70
Yield to Worst : 7.28 %

RY.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.41 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.46 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 17.51
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 17.51
Yield to Worst : 6.46 %

SLF.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.29 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.22 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 16.81
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 16.81
Yield to Worst : 7.22 %

RY.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.27 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.53 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 17.93
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 17.93
Yield to Worst : 6.53 %

W.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.17 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.93 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 17.79
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 17.79
Yield to Worst : 7.93 %

CM.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.11 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.22 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 18.79
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 18.79
Yield to Worst : 7.22 %

CM.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.10 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.01 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 16.11
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 16.11
Yield to Worst : 7.01 %

CM.PR.P Perpetual-Discount -1.03 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.22 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 19.13
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 19.13
Yield to Worst : 7.22 %

TD.PR.C FixedReset 1.08 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 4.98 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 24.36
Probability of Maturity : 67.99 %

Evaluated at bid price : 24.41
Yield to Worst : 4.98 %

BNS.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.09 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.51 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 18.50
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Yield to Worst : 6.51 %

BNS.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.10 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.52 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 20.22
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 20.22
Yield to Worst : 6.52 %

CM.PR.K FixedReset 1.14 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 4.96 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 21.79
Probability of Maturity : 91.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 22.25
Yield to Worst : 4.96 %

W.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.21 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.88 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 17.60
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Yield to Worst : 7.88 %

PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.24 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.22 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 20.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Yield to Worst : 7.22 %

NA.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 1.34 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.98 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 17.39
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 17.39
Yield to Worst : 6.98 %

TD.PR.S FixedReset 1.35 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 4.23 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 22.44
Probability of Maturity : 88.90 %

Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Yield to Worst : 4.23 %

BMO.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 1.39 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.99 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 21.11
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 21.11
Yield to Worst : 6.99 %

PWF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.40 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.88 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 19.14
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 19.14
Yield to Worst : 6.88 %

ALB.PR.A SplitShare 1.40 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 13.35 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2011-02-28
Maturity Price : 25.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 21.02
Yield to Worst : 13.35 %

ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.49 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.97 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 15.02
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 15.02
Yield to Worst : 7.97 %

POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.51 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.96 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 18.10
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 18.10
Yield to Worst : 6.96 %

WFS.PR.A SplitShare 1.66 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 9.04 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2011-06-30
Maturity Price : 10.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 9.20
Yield to Worst : 9.04 %

BMO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.72 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.69 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 20.15
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 20.15
Yield to Worst : 6.69 %

POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.72 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.89 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 19.54
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 19.54
Yield to Worst : 6.89 %

PWF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.73 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.14 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 20.75
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Yield to Worst : 7.14 %

NA.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.77 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.10 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 20.61
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 20.61
Yield to Worst : 7.10 %

DF.PR.A SplitShare 1.81 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.43 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2014-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 9.01
Yield to Worst : 7.43 %

BCE.PR.C FixedFloater 1.86 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.31 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 25.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 15.92
Yield to Worst : 7.31 %

BCE.PR.S Ratchet 1.92 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.53 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 25.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 14.89
Yield to Worst : 7.53 %

PWF.PR.A Floater 2.04 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 4.96 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 12.51
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 12.51
Yield to Worst : 4.96 %

PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 2.04 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.15 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 19.30
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Yield to Worst : 7.15 %

PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 2.06 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.90 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 18.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Yield to Worst : 6.90 %

PWF.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 2.06 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.11 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 21.17
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 21.17
Yield to Worst : 7.11 %

CL.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 2.11 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.09 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 22.26
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 22.26
Yield to Worst : 7.09 %

NA.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 2.12 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.12 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 21.08
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 21.08
Yield to Worst : 7.12 %

PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 2.12 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.15 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 17.90
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 17.90
Yield to Worst : 7.15 %

BNS.PR.O Perpetual-Discount 2.14 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.69 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 21.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Yield to Worst : 6.69 %

SBN.PR.A SplitShare 2.15 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.36 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2014-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 9.50
Yield to Worst : 6.36 %

FFN.PR.A SplitShare 2.29 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 9.80 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2014-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 8.04
Yield to Worst : 9.80 %

GWO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 2.35 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.02 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 17.45
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 17.45
Yield to Worst : 7.02 %

RY.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 2.36 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.61 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 21.38
Probability of Maturity : 94.07 %

Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Yield to Worst : 6.61 %

BCE.PR.I FixedFloater 2.40 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.22 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 25.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 15.76
Yield to Worst : 7.22 %

POW.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 2.62 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 6.90 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 21.16
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 21.16
Yield to Worst : 6.90 %

GWO.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 2.74 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.05 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 16.13
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 16.13
Yield to Worst : 7.05 %

NA.PR.N FixedReset 2.77 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 4.97 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 21.41
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 21.41
Yield to Worst : 4.97 %

BCE.PR.R FixedFloater 3.33 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.37 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 25.00
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 15.50
Yield to Worst : 7.37 %

CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 3.35 % Yield-to-Worst (at Bid) : 7.02 %
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-07
Maturity Price : 16.65
Probability of Maturity : 100.00 %

Evaluated at bid price : 16.65
Yield to Worst : 7.02 %

Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
WFS.PR.A SplitShare 490,900
LFE.PR.A SplitShare 64,507
GWO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 63,899
GWO.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 55,300
RY.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 39,570
RY.PR.N FixedReset 38,762
BAM.PR.O OpRet 30,855
PPL.PR.A SplitShare 29,313
RY.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 26,200
BCE.PR.I FixedFloater 23,613
FFN.PR.A SplitShare 22,255
CU.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 20,587
BNS.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 18,240
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 17,574
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 17,000
RY.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 16,410
HSB.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 16,400
CM.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 15,655
BMO.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 15,150
BNS.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 14,935
SLF.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 14,240
BMO.PR.N FixedReset 13,950
BMO.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 13,030
CM.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 13,015
BNA.PR.C SplitShare 12,600
MFC.PR.A OpRet 12,400
SLF.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 12,379
FIG.PR.A Interest-Bearing 12,376
CM.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 12,250
TD.PR.P Perpetual-Discount 11,465
BCE.PR.Z FixedFloater 10,341

2 Responses to “January 7, 2009”

  1. prefhound says:

    Flight to safety seems to be over. In December US 30-year treasury yields fell to 2.6%, but have now bounced back to almost 3.1% Interestingly, TIPS still forecast zero inflation for 10 years (which I very much doubt).

    Meanwhile, I observe that despite all the noise about US mortgage foreclosures and writeoffs, US home ownership was the same at Sep 30/08 as at the end of 2007 (67.8%). Consumer debt is not out of line with home ownership levels. Folks do not seem to be driven out of their homes in huge numbers, after all….

    A year ago I opined that there wasn’t much of a US housing bubble — prices were up because low interest rates made them more affordable. The problems we see in the market aren’t due to mortgages, they are due to leverage elsewhere in the financial system.

    Indeed, speaking of placing my bets, I think there is an even chance Nov 21 saw the stock market low. S&P-500 is up 22% since, and the market normally leads the ISM PMI by 2-5 months (PMI was a horrible 31.2 on Jan 2).

    Interestingly, the low for prefs (and income trusts) was Dec 23 — super serious tax loss selling by the looks of it. I saw some situations where pref arbitrage offered 40-60% profit opportunities in 1-2 weeks (which I happily took). And I see MAPF did quite well in December, too.

    Thanks for all your hard work in 2008, James, and I look forward to lots of fun and excitement in 2009.

  2. jiHymas says:

    Flight to safety seems to be over.

    An article in the New York Times states:

    In the last five years, China has spent as much as one-seventh of its entire economic output buying foreign debt, mostly American. In September, it surpassed Japan as the largest overseas holder of Treasuries.

    But now Beijing is seeking to pay for its own $600 billion stimulus — just as tax revenue is falling sharply as the Chinese economy slows. Regulators have ordered banks to lend more money to small and medium-size enterprises, many of which are struggling with lower exports, and to local governments to build new roads and other projects.

    “All the key drivers of China’s Treasury purchases are disappearing — there’s a waning appetite for dollars and a waning appetite for Treasuries, and that complicates the outlook for interest rates,” said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist in the Hong Kong office of the Royal Bank of Scotland.

    Folks do not seem to be driven out of their homes in huge numbers, after all….

    I don’t have any figures, but I do understand that the people who have been hurt badly – or who have hurt the banks with “jingle mail” – have been speculators rather than occupants.

    I saw some situations where pref arbitrage offered 40-60% profit opportunities in 1-2 weeks (which I happily took).

    Wasn’t it great? It will be a while before we see that again …

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