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The New York Fed released its Household Debt and Credit Report today:

The Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter of 2022 shows a solid increase in total household debt of $266 billion, to $15.84 trillion. Balances now stand $1.7 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Mortgage and auto loan balances rose by $250 billion and $11 billion, respectively, in the quarter, although originations for both subsided from historically high levels in 2021. Credit card balances declined by $15 billion, in line with seasonal trends typically seen at the start of the year, but are still $71 billion higher than in 2021:Q1, representing a substantial year-over-year increase.

TXPR closed at 618.14, down 1.14% on the day. Volume today was 1.47-million, well below the median of the past 21 trading days.

CPD closed at 12.28, down 0.97% on the day. Volume was 107,800, near the median of the past 21 trading days.

ZPR closed at 10.26 down 0.87% on the day. Volume of 173,220 was near the median of the past 21 trading days.

Five-year Canada yields were down a bit to 2.82% today.

It was a pretty horrible day everywhere:

The S&P 500 fell 3.2 percent, adding to a downdraft that has knocked 16.3 percent off the index this year, including a five-week stretch of selling that is the market’s longest such decline in more than a decade.

The drop has stocks approaching a bear market, Wall Street’s term for a decline of 20 percent or more from recent highs, a retreat that serves as a marker of a severe shift in sentiment.

The focus of attention on Monday was China’s economy, after customs data showed that growth in the country’s exports slowed significantly in April and Li Keqiang, the Chinese premier, warned this weekend that the current state of the nation’s jobs market was “complicated and grave.”

But here’s a sign of the times:

Royal Bank of Canada RY-T -1.44%decrease
is raising base pay by 3 per cent for its lower-paid employees as part of a $200-million spending package that aims to fend off fierce competition for talent by improving salaries and benefits.

The unusual increase takes effect on July 1, and applies to all employees in a range of entry-level and less senior positions, including at branches, call centres and other divisions. Collectively, the employees receiving raises make up nearly half of all RBC staff, and chief executive officer Dave McKay said in a company memo that the raises are intended “to address the market pressures and the rising cost of living that is having a greater impact on colleagues in lower salary bands.”

He said RBC, which has more than 85,000 full-time equivalent employees, will take those market forces into account when the bank calculates its normal salary increases at the end of the fiscal year in October. Many other RBC employees, including those in senior roles, receive a significant amount of their pay from commissions or bonuses, which also surged in a busy year for traders and investment bankers. That has been a key factor driving costs higher for many banks over the past year.

The New York Fed has released its Survey of Consumer Expectations:

• Median inflation expectations decreased in April at the one-year horizon to 6.3% from 6.6% in March. In contrast, median three-year-ahead inflation expectations rose by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9%. While both series remain elevated, they are 0.3 percentage point below their series highs. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at the one-year horizon but increased at the three-year horizon.
• …
• Expectations about year-ahead price changes fell sharply by 4.4 percentage points for the price of gas to 5.2%. The expected change in the price of food and medical care fell by 0.2 percentage point (to 9.4%) and by 0.1 percentage point (to 9.5%), respectively. The median expected change in the cost of a college education and rent rose by 0.6 percentage point (to 9.1%) and 0.1 percentage point (to 10.3%), respectively. The median expected increase in rent is now at a new series’ high.
• …
• Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth remained unchanged in April at its series high of 3.0%.
• …
• The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% in April. This reading is comparable to its 12-month trailing average of 3.0%, but it is below the series high of 3.4% recorded in December 2021.
• Median household nominal spending growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 8.0%, marking a new series high. The increase was most pronounced for respondents over the age of 60 and those with at most a high school diploma.

There was a good jobs number in the US:

On Friday, the Labor Department reported that employers added 428,000 jobs in April, while average hourly earnings rose 5.5 percent from a year ago. While the report showed hiring remains resilient, economists have said that the strong job market and wage acceleration could incentivize the central bank to lift interest rates more aggressively.
…
The central bank on Wednesday raised interest rates half a percentage point, the biggest increase since 2000. Speaking after the announcement, Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, cited the labor market, and in particular the record number of job openings relative to the number of unemployed workers, as a reason policymakers had become more aggressive in recent months.

“You can see that the labor market is out of balance; you can see that there is a labor shortage,” Mr. Powell said. In April, he described the labor market as “unsustainably hot.”
…
The reaction to the jobs report was evident in the bond market too. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes, a proxy for investor expectations about interest rates, rose to 3.1 percent from 3 percent a day earlier.

Not so good in Canada:

Job creation in Canada slowed substantially in April and work absences due to COVID-19 spiked to near record levels, marking a subdued start to the second quarter but one that’s unlikely to divert the Bank of Canada from its quickest pace of policy tightening in decades.

The economy added 15,300 positions last month, Statistics Canada said Friday, short of the 40,000 jobs that financial analysts on Bay Street had expected. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2 per cent from 5.3 per cent, the lowest in nearly five decades of comparable data.

Hiring activity was closer to a typical month before the pandemic, following a blowout gain of roughly 409,000 positions in February and March combined as pandemic restrictions eased. It was the rare report of late that didn’t speak to sizzling growth in the Canadian economy.
…
Total hours worked – a metric that economists look to for an indication of economic output – fell 1.9 per cent in April from March, partly because of a spike in illness-related absences from work, Statscan said. Nearly one in 10 employees were absent from work due to illness or disability in April, making it one of the largest months of absence during the pandemic.
…
Thus far, wage growth has been slow to pick up and doesn’t come close to matching inflation, amounting to a reduction in purchasing power for the average worker. In April, average hourly wages rose 3.3 per cent on an annual basis – similar to March’s 3.4-per-cent pace, but lagging growth in 2019, when the labour market was experiencing similarly tight conditions.

TXPR closed at 627.81, down 0.74% on the day. Volume today was 1.50-million, third-lowest of the past 21 trading days, ahead of only April 14 and April 18. We are still hanging around price levels experienced on April 25.

CPD closed at 12.48, down 0.48% on the day. Volume was 121,280, near the median of the past 21 trading days.

ZPR closed at 10.45 down 0.38% on the day. Volume of 302,360 was well above the median of the past 21 trading days.

Five-year Canada yields were up 10bp to 2.88% today.

It was a wild day for the markets:

Stocks dove on Thursday, erasing gains from their best day since 2020 in a swing that highlights Wall Street’s heightened anxiety over what the Federal Reserve’s campaign to slow inflation will mean for the economy.

The S&P 500 fell 3.6 percent, after surging 3 percent on Wednesday. The Nasdaq composite slid 5 percent, its biggest drop since June 2020.

The volatility was on display in other financial markets, too. Yields on government bonds spiked, with the rate on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, a benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy, climbing above 3 percent and touching its highest level since 2018, reversing a drop on Wednesday.

TXPR closed at 632.49, up 0.52% on the day. Volume today was 2.39-million, about the median of the past 21 trading days. Today’s performance, the fifth consecutive gaining day, regains lost ground all the way back to April 25.

CPD closed at 12.54, up 0.53% on the day. Volume was 124,810, near the median of the past 21 trading days.

ZPR closed at 10.485 down 0.10% on the day. Volume of 163,920 was a little below the median of the past 21 trading days.

Five-year Canada yields were down to 2.78% today.

It is interesting to note that the three month bill yield has declined to 1.44%; I suspect it’s a flight to quality, but still indicates a strong conviction that we will see a 50bp hike at the beginning of June, with probably more to come in mid-July.

The FOMC hiked its policy rate 50bp:

Although overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and business fixed investment remained strong. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in conjunction with this statement.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

This move has been so thoroughly discounted that the announcement was actually good for equities:

Stocks on Wall Street had their best day since 2020 on Wednesday, after Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said that central bankers weren’t considering exceptionally large increases in interest rates, calming investors who had begun to worry that the fight against inflation might push the economy into a recession.

The S&P 500 rose 3 percent, the biggest jump since May 2020, spiking after Mr. Powell’s comment. Earlier on Wednesday, the Fed said it would lift interest rates by half a percentage point, an increase that was widely expected, and that it plans to shrink its bond holdings.

Bond yields, a proxy for investor expectations about interest rates, ticked lower. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage points, to 2.92 percent.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.83%, equivalent to 7.58% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield 4.85%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has reverted to 275bp from the 320bp reported April 27.

Some landlords are learning the risks of investing with a negative carry:

In recent years, many mom-and-pop real estate investors in the two cities have been quietly paying more in mortgage and other ownership costs than they receive in rent, trusting they’d eventually sell at a profit thanks to rapidly rising home values, experts say.

But as interest rates shoot up and price growth slows, some highly indebted landlords are beginning to feel the squeeze more acutely. That financial pain could eventually push rents even higher, some experts warn.
…
It’s not uncommon for homeowners who’ve seen the value of their first home soar in recent years to borrow against their home equity with a HELOC to fund the down payment on an investment property, [Toronto-based mortgage broker] Mr. [Ron] Butler said, speaking about the Ontario market. Borrowers often don’t disclose to their bank they intend to use the HELOC to acquire a second home, he added.

Once they’ve drawn the cash for a down payment from the HELOC, borrowers typically apply for a mortgage to finance the rest of the real estate purchase, Mr. Butler said.

With HELOC rates climbing, many of those highly leveraged investors are now scrambling to convert their line of credit balance into mortgage debt that comes with fixed payments, according to Mr. Butler. The risk is that some may not be able to do so.

That may be because the additional debt they’ve taken on from the investment property means they don’t meet lenders’ requirements. Another obstacle is the fact that climbing interest rates have raised the bar borrowers must clear to pass the federal mortgage stress test, Mr. Butler said. Yet another hitch is that mortgages, unlike HELOCs, require payments of both principal and interest, resulting in bigger monthly outlays for borrowers, he added.

Well, rising rents is one way the situation might be resolved. Another way is for the investors to eat the negative carry for an indefinite period; and the third is for the investors to sell at a loss. As the rental market seems to be priced at all the market can bear, I’ll suggest that the third is the most likely option with the timing set for the deals to close around the time the mortgage (if any) renews. That’s what happened in 1980 and again in 1991.

But amid all this talk of rising prices, some may simply wish to relax:

Prices for recreational and medicinal cannabis have dropped by 8.3 per cent and 10.2 per cent, respectively, over the past year, and by roughly 25 per cent in both categories since the end of 2018, according to Statistics Canada. The annual inflation rate hit 6.7 per cent in March, the highest since 1991.