January 20, 2017

January 20th, 2017
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.06 % 4.86 % 22,357 18.03 1 0.0000 % 1,915.3
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.6090 % 3,460.2
Floater 3.99 % 4.15 % 50,956 17.11 4 -0.6090 % 1,994.1
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0460 % 2,955.2
SplitShare 4.80 % 4.34 % 66,731 4.20 6 0.0460 % 3,529.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0460 % 2,753.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.58 % -5.84 % 73,749 0.09 12 0.2328 % 2,707.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.23 % 5.22 % 89,441 14.95 26 -0.2182 % 2,852.2
FixedReset 4.60 % 4.37 % 220,740 6.74 96 0.3017 % 2,229.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.12 % 3.97 % 131,533 0.34 32 -0.2007 % 2,783.0
FloatingReset 2.45 % 3.24 % 46,617 4.74 11 0.2145 % 2,429.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -2.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 23.34
Evaluated at bid price : 23.79
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.97 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 21.52
Evaluated at bid price : 21.86
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 21.56
Evaluated at bid price : 21.91
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 21.67
Evaluated at bid price : 21.92
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 23.44
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 22.21
Evaluated at bid price : 22.54
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 11.31
Evaluated at bid price : 11.31
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 14.30
Evaluated at bid price : 14.30
Bid-YTW : 4.55 %
BMO.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 24.66
Evaluated at bid price : 25.08
Bid-YTW : 5.04 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 20.20
Evaluated at bid price : 20.20
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.85
Bid-YTW : 9.13 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 20.62
Evaluated at bid price : 20.62
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 21.13
Evaluated at bid price : 21.13
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 24.13
Evaluated at bid price : 24.38
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 20.61
Evaluated at bid price : 20.61
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 21.47
Evaluated at bid price : 21.47
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 20.87
Evaluated at bid price : 20.87
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium 1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.83
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-02-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.27
Bid-YTW : -6.74 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 14.01
Evaluated at bid price : 14.01
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 17.51
Evaluated at bid price : 17.51
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 4.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 24.29
Evaluated at bid price : 24.60
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.B FixedReset 402,392 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.94
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 209,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 24.29
Evaluated at bid price : 24.60
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 168,367 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 15.40
Evaluated at bid price : 15.40
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %
BMO.PR.R FloatingReset 152,583 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.71
Bid-YTW : 3.23 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset 138,291 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.94
Bid-YTW : 2.97 %
TD.PF.H FixedReset 126,668 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.70
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
BNS.PR.H FixedReset 121,050 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-01-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.92
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
GWO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible 113,875 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-02-19
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.66
Bid-YTW : 1.59 %
TRP.PR.K FixedReset 112,256 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
TRP.PR.J FixedReset 107,317 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.55
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
GWO.PR.F Deemed-Retractible 104,608 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-02-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.57
Bid-YTW : -16.90 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 103,994 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 17.77
Evaluated at bid price : 17.77
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %
TD.PR.Z FloatingReset 102,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.71
Bid-YTW : 3.14 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset 100,963 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.03
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
There were 69 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Quote: 14.76 – 15.35
Spot Rate : 0.5900
Average : 0.4005

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.76
Bid-YTW : 9.83 %

GRP.PR.A SplitShare Quote: 25.51 – 26.00
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3382

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-02-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : -16.59 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 20.50 – 20.94
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.2990

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 20.50
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 14.92 – 15.27
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2102

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 14.92
Evaluated at bid price : 14.92
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %

CM.PR.Q FixedReset Quote: 22.61 – 22.97
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2391

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 22.14
Evaluated at bid price : 22.61
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %

TRP.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 20.50 – 20.79
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1760

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-20
Maturity Price : 20.50
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %

TransAlta pref shareholders not happy with consolidation plan

January 20th, 2017

Barry Critchley was kind enough to quote me in his piece TransAlta pref shareholders not happy with consolidation plan:

Others disagree. For instance, James Hymas, a portfolio manager at Hymas Investment Counsel and the publisher of Prefblog, called it “an appalling, abusive offer. TransAlta’s extant preferred shares are trading well below their call price, which gives them a lot of room to make impressive capital gains should market conditions improve.” In Hymas’s view, the plan “effectively lowers the redemption price of the preferred shares outstanding, which will allow any such gains to be scooped up by the company instead of its preferred shareholders.”

This week, Hymas weighed in again. In an interview he said the “amount of extra income being offered is not just minimal but will disappear completely on reset with only a modest rise in government of Canada five year rates.” Accordingly if five year Canada bonds rise “significantly, the extant issues will pay more than the (proposed) new issue.”

Hymas also was critical of the process that will see those members of the soliciting group collect $0.13 per share per favorable vote — but nothing in the event the vote is unfavorable. The large difference in payments, “really makes me think they understand very well how cruddy their offer is.”

This follows previous posts on this topic:

Affected issues are TA.PR.D, TA.PR.E, TA.PR.F, TA.PR.H and TA.PR.J.

New Issue: BIP FixedReset, 5.00%+378M500, ROC + Interest

January 20th, 2017

Brookfield Infrastructure has announced:

that it has agreed to issue 8,000,000 Cumulative Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 7 (“Series 7 Preferred Units”) on a bought deal basis to a syndicate of underwriters led by CIBC Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets, Scotiabank, and TD Securities Inc. The Series 7 Preferred Units will be issued at a price of $25.00 per unit, for gross proceeds of $200,000,000. Holders of the Series 7 Preferred Units will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly fixed distribution at a rate of 5.00% annually for the initial period ending March 31, 2022. Thereafter, the distribution rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the greater of: (i) the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 3.78%, and (ii) 5.00%. The Series 7 Preferred Units are redeemable on or after March 31, 2022.

Holders of the Series 7 Preferred Units will have the right, at their option, to reclassify their Series 7 Preferred Units into Cumulative Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 8 (“Series 8 Preferred Units”), subject to certain conditions, on March 31, 2022 and on March 31 every five years thereafter. Holders of Series 8 Preferred Units will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly floating distribution at a rate equal to the 90-day Canadian Treasury Bill yield plus 3.78%.

Brookfield Infrastructure has granted the underwriters an option, exercisable until 48 hours prior to closing, to purchase up to an additional 2,000,000 Series 7 Preferred Units which, if exercised, would increase the gross offering size to $250,000,000.

The Series 7 Preferred Units will be offered in all provinces and territories of Canada by way of a supplement to Brookfield Infrastructure’s existing short form base shelf prospectus.

Brookfield Infrastructure intends to use the net proceeds of the issue of the Series 7 Preferred Units for investment opportunities, working capital and other general corporate purposes. The offering of Series 7 Preferred Units is expected to close on or about January 26, 2017.

They later announced:

that as a result of strong investor demand for its previously announced offering it has agreed to increase the size of the offering to 12,000,000 Cumulative Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 7 (“Series 7 Preferred Units”) to be offered on a bought deal basis to a syndicate of underwriters led by CIBC Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets, Scotiabank, and TD Securities Inc. The Series 7 Preferred Units will be issued at a price of $25.00 per unit, for gross proceeds of $300,000,000.

I understand that the Return of Capital percentage of distributions is forecast – but by no means guaranteed! – to be about 50% over the next five years. See the discussion of BIP.PR.A for some sample calculations regarding the implications of this.

Implied Volatility analysis suggests that this issue is expensive:

impvol_bip_170119
Click for Big

However, this conclusion rests to a large degree on the question of how much the minimum reset guarantee is worth. I’m not inclined to assign a particularly high value on it; but others might be more generous.

June 19, 2017

January 20th, 2017
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.06 % 4.86 % 22,638 18.04 1 0.2410 % 1,915.3
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3766 % 3,481.4
Floater 3.97 % 4.12 % 50,725 17.18 4 -0.3766 % 2,006.3
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0131 % 2,953.8
SplitShare 4.80 % 4.33 % 69,461 4.20 6 -0.0131 % 3,527.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0131 % 2,752.3
Perpetual-Premium 5.59 % -4.13 % 70,050 0.09 12 -0.0983 % 2,701.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.22 % 5.30 % 87,078 14.87 26 0.0599 % 2,858.4
FixedReset 4.61 % 4.37 % 227,833 6.74 96 -0.0983 % 2,222.9
Deemed-Retractible 5.11 % 3.87 % 129,670 0.27 32 -0.1035 % 2,788.6
FloatingReset 2.46 % 3.31 % 44,844 4.74 11 0.0569 % 2,424.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
W.PR.M FixedReset -1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.66
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-19
Maturity Price : 11.56
Evaluated at bid price : 11.56
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 8.80 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.80
Bid-YTW : 9.79 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.R FloatingReset 201,100 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.73
Bid-YTW : 3.21 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 162,282 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-19
Maturity Price : 19.55
Evaluated at bid price : 19.55
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %
RY.PR.R FixedReset 57,383 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.02
Bid-YTW : 3.80 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 56,494 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-19
Maturity Price : 20.52
Evaluated at bid price : 20.52
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset 53,292 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-19
Maturity Price : 22.16
Evaluated at bid price : 22.64
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 37,216 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.83
Bid-YTW : 3.36 %
There were 35 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
W.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 25.66 – 25.95
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2182

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.66
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %

TRP.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 13.73 – 14.14
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.3414

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-19
Maturity Price : 13.73
Evaluated at bid price : 13.73
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %

GRP.PR.A SplitShare Quote: 25.50 – 25.74
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1718

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-02-18
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : -16.34 %

SLF.PR.J FloatingReset Quote: 14.70 – 15.00
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2349

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.70
Bid-YTW : 9.27 %

BIP.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 25.80 – 26.03
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1780

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.80
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %

TRP.PR.D FixedReset Quote: 19.55 – 19.72
Spot Rate : 0.1700
Average : 0.1197

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-19
Maturity Price : 19.55
Evaluated at bid price : 19.55
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %

January 18, 2017

January 18th, 2017

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.30%, equivalent to 6.89% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 4.05%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now 285bp, a slight (and perhaps spurious) narrowing from the 290bp reported January 11.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.07 % 4.87 % 23,455 18.02 1 0.0000 % 1,910.7
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1047 % 3,494.6
Floater 3.95 % 4.07 % 51,356 17.28 4 0.1047 % 2,013.9
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0394 % 2,954.2
SplitShare 4.80 % 4.32 % 52,656 4.20 6 0.0394 % 3,528.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0394 % 2,752.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.58 % -4.78 % 71,083 0.09 12 0.1181 % 2,703.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.22 % 5.30 % 88,331 14.89 26 0.3425 % 2,856.7
FixedReset 4.61 % 4.34 % 229,733 6.74 96 -0.4164 % 2,225.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.11 % 3.77 % 130,014 0.20 32 -0.0517 % 2,791.5
FloatingReset 2.46 % 3.34 % 43,241 4.74 11 -0.1181 % 2,423.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.N FixedReset -2.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.62
Bid-YTW : 9.96 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset -1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset -1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.94
Bid-YTW : 6.90 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset -1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-18
Maturity Price : 21.33
Evaluated at bid price : 21.33
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.82
Bid-YTW : 6.94 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-18
Maturity Price : 22.42
Evaluated at bid price : 23.08
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.34
Bid-YTW : 6.71 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.82
Bid-YTW : 8.97 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.66
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.30
Bid-YTW : 6.82 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.35
Bid-YTW : 3.61 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-18
Maturity Price : 21.97
Evaluated at bid price : 22.35
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-18
Maturity Price : 21.97
Evaluated at bid price : 22.20
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-18
Maturity Price : 14.95
Evaluated at bid price : 14.95
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-18
Maturity Price : 21.95
Evaluated at bid price : 22.19
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-18
Maturity Price : 22.15
Evaluated at bid price : 22.41
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.H FixedReset 211,844 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.68
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
BAM.PF.I FixedReset 159,887 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.80
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 92,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.17
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 59,821 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-18
Maturity Price : 14.55
Evaluated at bid price : 14.55
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 55,085 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.64
Bid-YTW : 6.80 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset 52,604 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
There were 28 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 23.50 – 23.81
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.1999

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %

SLF.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 15.82 – 16.08
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1702

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.82
Bid-YTW : 8.97 %

GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.48 – 24.73
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1636

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.48
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %

W.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 25.96 – 26.17
Spot Rate : 0.2100
Average : 0.1394

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.96
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %

RY.PR.W Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.96 – 25.20
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1777

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-18
Maturity Price : 24.68
Evaluated at bid price : 24.96
Bid-YTW : 4.97 %

CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.52 – 23.89
Spot Rate : 0.3700
Average : 0.3106

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.52
Bid-YTW : 6.02 %

January 17, 2017

January 17th, 2017
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.07 % 4.87 % 23,380 18.03 1 -0.3003 % 1,910.7
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4629 % 3,490.9
Floater 3.96 % 4.09 % 53,248 17.24 4 0.4629 % 2,011.8
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0066 % 2,953.0
SplitShare 4.80 % 4.45 % 72,172 4.21 6 -0.0066 % 3,526.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0066 % 2,751.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.59 % -6.06 % 71,622 0.09 12 -0.0098 % 2,700.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.24 % 5.32 % 89,110 14.87 26 0.4647 % 2,847.0
FixedReset 4.59 % 4.32 % 229,138 6.75 96 0.0776 % 2,234.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.10 % 3.67 % 130,849 0.27 32 0.1774 % 2,792.9
FloatingReset 2.46 % 3.29 % 44,197 4.74 11 0.3203 % 2,425.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-17
Maturity Price : 13.76
Evaluated at bid price : 13.76
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
BNS.PR.B FloatingReset 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.56
Bid-YTW : 3.29 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-17
Maturity Price : 23.74
Evaluated at bid price : 24.22
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-17
Maturity Price : 22.60
Evaluated at bid price : 23.40
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-17
Maturity Price : 22.87
Evaluated at bid price : 23.28
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.73
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-17
Maturity Price : 16.99
Evaluated at bid price : 16.99
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-17
Maturity Price : 23.53
Evaluated at bid price : 23.80
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.91
Bid-YTW : 5.34 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-17
Maturity Price : 21.83
Evaluated at bid price : 22.17
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset 1.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-17
Maturity Price : 20.50
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 2.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-17
Maturity Price : 14.55
Evaluated at bid price : 14.55
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 2.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-17
Maturity Price : 21.85
Evaluated at bid price : 22.17
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.K FixedReset 201,943 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.77
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
BAM.PF.I FixedReset 110,423 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.82
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 93,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-17
Maturity Price : 17.94
Evaluated at bid price : 17.94
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
MFC.PR.R FixedReset 82,891 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.56
Bid-YTW : 4.55 %
BNS.PR.E FixedReset 68,408 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.84
Bid-YTW : 3.61 %
BMO.PR.B FixedReset 52,998 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.05
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
There were 33 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 13.76 – 14.15
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2731

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-17
Maturity Price : 13.76
Evaluated at bid price : 13.76
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %

BMO.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 24.60 – 24.85
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1648

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.60
Bid-YTW : 3.44 %

IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.50 – 25.78
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1994

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-02-16
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : 2.91 %

RY.PR.P Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.39 – 25.70
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2355

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2025-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.39
Bid-YTW : 5.16 %

CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.73 – 24.04
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2455

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.73
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %

PWF.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 21.25 – 21.49
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1771

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-17
Maturity Price : 21.25
Evaluated at bid price : 21.25
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %

Forward Interest Rates

January 17th, 2017

Forward interest rates have emerged as a bone of contention in the analysis of the proposed TransAlta preferred share exchange offer, so as part of the preparation for my promised weekend post, I’ll post a few links to some papers that illustrate why the Expectations Hypothesis cannot be used as a predictor.

Joseph R. Dziwura and Eric M. Green wrote a paper in 1996 for the New York Fed titled Interest Rate Expectations and the Shape of the Yield Curve:

According to the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure (REHTS) long term rates should reflect market expectations for the average level of future short-term rates. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether REHTS assumptions conform to the term structure of outstanding U. S. Treasury securities from 1973 to 1995, and to examine the behavior of term premiums and to what extent they influence the shape of the forward curve. REHTS assumptions are re-examined using familiar regression tests to determine the forecast power of forward rates for subsequent spot rates, and we use excess holding period returns, the extra return earned on a security sold prior to maturity, as the ex poste measurement of the term premium. We find that forward rates explain only some of the variance in future spot rates, the forecast power of forward rates varies with maturity, and the term premia is time-varying. We decompose the forward rate into the current spot rate, a term premium, and an expected interest rate change, where the term premium is the sum of a risk premium and a convexity premium. We find that on average term premiums have contributed more to the shape of the forward curve than have expected rate changes, and find that expected and past interest rate volatility, as well as the slope of the yield curve, may provide information on the size of expected term premiums.

Another paper was by Massimo Guidolin and Daniel L. Thornton of the St. Louis Fed, titled Predictions of Short-Term Rates and the Expectations
Hypothesis
:

Despite its role in monetary policy and finance, the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates has received virtually no empirical support. The empirical failure of the EH has been attributed to a variety of econometric biases associated with the single-equation models most often used to test it; however, none of these explanations appears to account for the massives [sic] failure reported in the literature. We note that traditional tests of the EH are based on two assumptions—the EH per se and an assumption about the expectations generating process (EGP) for the short-term rate. Arguing that convential [sic] tests of the EH could reject it because the EGP embedded in these tests is significantly at odds with the true EGP, we investigate this possibility by analyzing the out-of-sample predictive prefromance [sic] of several models for predicting interest rates and a model that assumes the EH holds. Using standard methods that take into account parameter uncertainty, the null hypothesis of equal predictive accuracy of each models relative to the random walk alternative is never rejected.

One may hope their work is more reliable than their proof-reading!

Intuitive Analytics is a financial software firm which has published a blog-post by Peter Orr titled 50 Years of UST Yields – How Well do Forwards Predict? that was exactly what I was looking for:

As we’ve written on these pages before, forecasting is a necessary evil in finance. It’s uncertain by nature and of course the longer the horizon, the more difficult the job. The theory that forward rates are good predictors of future realized rates is called the expectations hypothesis and as one MIT professor put it, “If the attractiveness of an economic hypothesis is measured by the number of papers which statistically reject it, the expectations theory of the term structure is a knockout.”

For fun (and to dust off my fast fading coding skills) I went back and looked at how US Treasury implied forward 10Y rates have done in forecasting realized 10Y UST yields from July, 1959 to the present. We used first of month data for 3, 6 and 12 month Tbills as zero rates (making the appropriate daycount adjustments of course) and then 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30-year UST coupon instruments for our implied 10Y forward calculations. And this is what we get…

ust_10y_yields-resized-600
Click for Big

The red line is the actual 10Y yield over the period and the “hair” is the implied 10Y par yield 1, 2, 3, and 5 years forward. The way to read this then is to look at how often the hair tracks with the actual realization of the 10Y yields as shown by the red line. In general, during this single big rate cycle we’ve seen over the last 50 years, forward rates have badly underpredicted when rates were going up (note the implied decreasing 10Y forwards during the 70s) and then overpredicted over the last 30 or so years as rates have fallen. How badly do forwards do? Well over this 50 year span, and this holds over most subperiods as well, you’d be better off as a forecaster just assuming today’s yield curve stays constant i.e. a perfectly random walk.

TransAlta Nudges TA.PR.D Offer; Hopes To Pay Sleaze Fees To Banks

January 16th, 2017

TransAlta Corporation has announced:

that it has filed a Management Information Circular (the “Information Circular”) with respect to the previously announced transaction pursuant to which all the currently outstanding first preferred shares in the capital of the Corporation (the “Existing Preferred Shares”) are proposed to be exchanged (the “Preferred Share Exchange”) for shares in a single new series of cumulative redeemable minimum rate reset first preferred shares, Series 1, in the capital of the Corporation (the “New Preferred Shares” or “Series 1 Preferred Shares”) pursuant to a plan of arrangement (the “Arrangement”).

Following the announcement of the proposed Arrangement, the Corporation decided to increase the premium on the Series A preferred shares resulting in an increase in the exchange ratio for the Series A preferred shares to 0.530 which represents an implied offer premium of 10.9% relative to the December 16, 2016 closing price for the Series A preferred shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange (the “TSX”). This increase more appropriately aligns the premium offered to Series A preferred shareholders to the premium offered to holders of other series of Existing Preferred Shares. The Corporation believes this adjustment will increase preferred shareholder support of the proposed Arrangement while maintaining fairness for holders of all other series of Existing Preferred Shares.

The exchange ratios of the Series B preferred shares, Series C preferred shares, Series E preferred shares and Series G preferred shares remain unchanged at 0.550, 0.705, 0.790 and 0.820, respectively. These ratios provide premiums in the range of 13% to 17%.

In a breathtaking display of disinformation, they claim:

Implied Offer Premia Ranges from 11% to 17%. In addition to the minimum floor protection, the Arrangement also offers a premium of 11% to 17% depending on the series of Existing Preferred Shares held (based on their respective trading values on December 16, 2016, the last trading day on the TSX prior to the announcement of the Arrangement). The premia reflect the percentage increase of the deemed value of the Series 1 Preferred Shares over the trading price of the applicable series of Existing Preferred Shares after adjusting for the applicable exchange ratio. Please refer to the table at the bottom of this section for details of the calculations.

Part of the “table at the bottom of this section” is:

Series A Series B Series C Series E Series G
Number of Shares Outstanding 10,175,380 1,824,620 11,000,000 9,000,000 6,600,000
Pre-Announcement Closing Price (December 16, 2016) $11.95 $11.75 $15.57 $16.99 $18.07
Exchange Ratio 0.530 0.550 0.705 0.790 0.820
Equivalent Exchanged Price(1) $22.55 $21.36 $22.09 $21.51 $22.04
Series 1 Issue Price $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00
Offer Premium(2) 10.9% 17.0% 13.2% 16.2% 13.4%

… with the notes, inter alia:

(1) “Equivalent Exchanged Price” is calculated by dividing the trading price of each series of Preferred Shares on December 16, 2016 by the applicable exchange ratio.

(2) Premia calculated by multiplying the $25.00 issue price of Series 1 Preferred Shares by the applicable exchange ratio for each series of Existing Preferred Shares and dividing this total by the trading price of the applicable series of Existing Preferred Share on December 16, 2016.

So their touted “Offer Premium” is dependent upon a trading price for the new shares of $25.00, a dubious proposition; this is besides the fact that – according to me – the TransAlta preferreds have been undervalued given their extant terms by far more than their “Offer Premium” and I’m perfectly happy waiting for the market to agree with me.

However, what attracted my ire about the Information Circular was on page 28 of this 203 page monstrosity:

TransAlta has engaged CIBC to form and manage a group (“Soliciting Dealer Group”) consisting of members of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada for the purpose of soliciting votes in favour of the Arrangement. TransAlta has agreed to pay each member of the Soliciting Dealer Group (a “Soliciting Dealer”) who has entered into an agreement with CIBC, a fee of $0.13 per Preferred Share for each Preferred Share that is: (a) solicited by such member of the Soliciting Dealer Group and (i) whose name appears in the appropriate place on the proxy form or the voting instruction form, or (ii) described in the solicitation claim form or electronic file submitted by such member provided that such form or file contains adequate detail with respect to the beneficial ownership of such Preferred Share; (b) voted in favour of the applicable Arrangement Resolution; and (c) exchanged pursuant to the Arrangement, provided that the solicitation fee in respect of any beneficial owner of Preferred Shares shall not be less than $52 or more than $1,500 in respect of each beneficial owner who has voted in favour of the Arrangement. The Corporation will not pay any fee with respect to Preferred Shares held for a Soliciting Dealer’s own account as principal, and solicitation fees will not be payable in respect to votes received from an applicable series of Preferred Shares if (a) the Arrangement Resolution applicable to such series is withdrawn; (b) approval of the Arrangement Resolution is not obtained; or (c) the Arrangement is not completed with respect to such series of Preferred Shares. The solicitation fee is only payable to brokers or dealers with a Canadian address and is not payable to (a) any United States broker or dealer in respect of votes received in favour of the Arrangement Resolution from forms of proxy bearing a United States address; or (b) where the registered or beneficial owner of the Preferred Shares to which such fee applies is an institutional investor. In cases where a single beneficial owner of Preferred Shares holds such Preferred Shares in the accounts of more than one broker or dealer, the $52 minimum and $1,500 maximum amounts will be applied separately in respect of such broker or dealer.

Additionally, TransAlta may use Broadridge’s QuickVote™ service to assist beneficial Preferred Shareholders with voting their Preferred Shares. Beneficial Preferred Shareholders may be contacted by Kingsdale to conveniently obtain a vote directly over the telephone. Members of the Soliciting Dealer Group can direct shareholders to Kingsdale for assistance with voting. Broadridge then tabulates the results of all instructions received and provides the appropriate instructions respecting the Preferred Shares to be represented at the Meetings.

Thirteen cents a share for a favourable vote and nothing for an unfavourable one! It’s an absolute disgrace and a disgrace that’s been obvious for years, but that’s life in Canada. At least it removes any uncertainty regarding what the banks’ employees are going to tell their clients.

TransAlta does not appear to have put the Information Circular on their website and, of course, the Canadian Securities Administrators do not allow stinking investor scum to link directly to the public documents that are filed on their website in accordance with the law. Go to SEDAR and find the document “TransAlta Corporation Jan 16 2017 22:20:08 ET Management information circular – English PDF 1585 K”.

I’ll have more to say about this on the weekend. In a nutshell, as I wrote in PrefLetter:

TransAlta has proposed a Plan of Arrangement whereby its extant preferred shares will be converted into fractional shares of a new series of FixedReset preferreds with an initial rate of 6.50% paid until December 31, 2021, which will then reset to GOC-5 + 529bp if not called (with a minimum of 6.50%). This is an appalling, abusive offer. TransAlta’s extant preferred shares are trading well below their call price, which gives them a lot of room to make impressive capital gains should market conditions improve (e.g., narrowing FixedReset spreads to GOC-5, increases in the GOC-5 yield, and improvements in the perceived credit quality of the company). The plan effectively lowers the redemption price of the preferred shares outstanding, which will allow any such gains to be scooped up by the company instead of its preferred shareholders. The pathetic amount of extra income offered by the company (which will disappear on reset with even a small increase in the GOC-5 yield) does not even begin to compensate for the huge asymmetry in investment outcomes that will be imposed if the Plan is approved.

For more commentary regarding the Plan, see http://prefblog.com/?p=34082 and http://prefblog.com/?p=34114. The table below shows the effective change in redemption price for each outstanding issue; this is determined by multiplying the new issue’s redemption price of $25.00 by the fractional consideration of these shares offered for each extant series.

Ticker Current Dividend Spread on Reset Next Reset Date Fractional Consideration Effective Redemption Price if Plan Approved
TA.PR.D 0.67725 203 2021-3-31 0.503 12.58
TA.PR.E Floating 203 2021-3-31 0.550 13.75
TA.PR.F 1.15 310 2017-6-30 0.705 17.62
TA.PR.H 1.25 365 2017-9-30 0.790 19.75
TA.PR.J 1.325 380 2019-9-30 0.820 20.50

The shareholder meeting to vote on the Plan is currently scheduled for February 16. I recommend that shareholders vote “No” to this appalling plan.

Note that the table above now needs an adjustment: the proposed Fractional Consideration for TA.PR.D is now 0.530 and the Effective Redemption Price is therefore 13.25.

Affected issues are TA.PR.D, TA.PR.E, TA.PR.F, TA.PR.H and TA.PR.J.

January 16, 2017

January 16th, 2017
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.05 % 4.85 % 24,287 18.05 1 2.4615 % 1,916.5
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5075 % 3,474.8
Floater 3.98 % 4.10 % 51,733 17.22 4 0.5075 % 2,002.6
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0724 % 2,953.2
SplitShare 4.80 % 4.31 % 72,110 4.21 6 0.0724 % 3,526.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0724 % 2,751.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.59 % -4.19 % 72,458 0.09 12 0.0361 % 2,700.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.26 % 5.31 % 89,098 14.88 26 0.4389 % 2,833.8
FixedReset 4.59 % 4.31 % 230,689 6.76 96 0.0350 % 2,232.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.11 % 3.58 % 129,508 0.27 32 0.0272 % 2,788.0
FloatingReset 2.46 % 3.51 % 40,898 4.74 11 -0.0789 % 2,418.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IAG.PR.G FixedReset -1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.52
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-16
Maturity Price : 20.60
Evaluated at bid price : 20.60
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-16
Maturity Price : 21.45
Evaluated at bid price : 21.76
Bid-YTW : 5.23 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-16
Maturity Price : 23.51
Evaluated at bid price : 23.97
Bid-YTW : 5.16 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 2.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-16
Maturity Price : 23.52
Evaluated at bid price : 23.99
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
BAM.PR.E Ratchet 2.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-16
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.65
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.H FixedReset 316,931 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
BAM.PF.I FixedReset 115,562 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 112,402 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-16
Maturity Price : 20.52
Evaluated at bid price : 20.52
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
MFC.PR.R FixedReset 80,366 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.52
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
TRP.PR.K FixedReset 77,743 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.81
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 61,298 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-16
Maturity Price : 22.09
Evaluated at bid price : 22.53
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
There were 29 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Quote: 14.91 – 16.00
Spot Rate : 1.0900
Average : 0.5938

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.91
Bid-YTW : 9.67 %

CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.54 – 22.02
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.2962

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-16
Maturity Price : 21.54
Evaluated at bid price : 21.54
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %

IAG.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 22.52 – 22.96
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.2901

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.52
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 20.12 – 20.57
Spot Rate : 0.4500
Average : 0.3163

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-16
Maturity Price : 20.12
Evaluated at bid price : 20.12
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %

RY.PR.W Perpetual-Discount Quote: 25.00 – 25.34
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2072

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-16
Maturity Price : 24.68
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %

TRP.PR.H FloatingReset Quote: 13.07 – 13.47
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2856

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-01-16
Maturity Price : 13.07
Evaluated at bid price : 13.07
Bid-YTW : 3.33 %

January, 2017, PrefLetter Released!

January 16th, 2017

The January, 2017, edition of PrefLetter has been released and is now available for purchase as the “Previous edition”. Those who subscribe for a full year receive the “Previous edition” as a bonus.

PrefLetter may now be purchased by all Canadian residents.

Until further notice, the “Previous Edition” will refer to the January, 2017, issue, while the “Next Edition” will be the February, 2017, issue, scheduled to be prepared as of the close February 10 and eMailed to subscribers prior to market-opening on February 13.

PrefLetter is intended for long term investors seeking issues to buy-and-hold. At least one recommendation from each of the major preferred share sectors is included and discussed.

Note: My verbosity has grown by such leaps and bounds that it is no longer possible to deliver PrefLetter as an eMail attachment – it’s just too big for my software! Instead, I have sent passwords – click on the link in your eMail and your copy will download.

Note: The PrefLetter website has a Subscriber Download Feature. If you have not received your copy, try it!

Note: PrefLetter eMails sometimes runs afoul of spam filters. If you have not received your copy within fifteen minutes of a release notice such as this one, please double check your (company’s) spam filtering policy and your spam repository – there are some hints in the post Sympatico Spam Filters out of Control. If it’s not there, contact me and I’ll get you your copy … somehow!

Note: There have been scattered complaints regarding inability to open PrefLetter in Acrobat Reader, despite my practice of including myself on the subscription list and immediately checking the copy received. I have had the occasional difficulty reading US Government documents, which I was able to resolve by downloading and installing the latest version of Adobe Reader. Also, note that so far, all complaints have been from users of Yahoo Mail. Try saving it to disk first, before attempting to open it.

Note: There have been other scattered complaints that double-clicking on the links in the “PrefLetter Download” email results in a message that the password has already been used. I have been able to reproduce this problem in my own eMail software … the problem is double-clicking. What happens is the first click opens the link and the second click finds that the password has already been used and refuses to work properly. So the moral of the story is: Don’t be a dick! Single Click!

Note: Assiduous Reader DG informs me:

In case you have any other Apple users: you need to install a free App from the apple store called “FileApp”. It comes with it’s own tutorial and allows you to download and save a PDF file.

However, Assiduous Reader Adrian informs me in the comments to the January 2015 release:

Some nitpicking for DG:
FileApp costs $1.19 in the Apple Store.

But Adrian2 now advises:

Well, as of now, FileApp is free (again?).

So cross your fingers!