Archive for January, 2014

January 31, 2014

Friday, January 31st, 2014

The blame game has begun:

India central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan warned of a breakdown in global policy coordination after the Federal Reserve further cut stimulus, weakening emerging-market currencies from the rupee to the Turkish lira.

Rajan, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, called for greater cooperation among policy makers weeks before finance chiefs from the world’s top developed and emerging markets gather in Sydney.

The Fed shouldn’t be blamed for turmoil in emerging markets, former Fed Governor Randall Kroszner, a professor at the University of Chicago where Rajan once lectured, said on Bloomberg Radio’s “The Hays Advantage.”

“Countries that are being hit tend to be ones that have high current-account deficits, high fiscal deficits and relatively high inflation, and the challenge is brought on by their own domestic policies,” Kroszner said. “It’s unfair to say it’s all the Fed’s fault.”

In 2011, Rajan co-authored a report that called for the creation of an International Monetary Policy Committee composed of representatives from major central banks that would regularly report on the aggregate consequences of individual central bank policies. Central banks from bigger countries should be encouraged to internalize the spillover effects of their policies, it said.

Rajan said yesterday developed countries might not like adjustments emerging markets take to cope with the outflows, without elaborating on specific measures. His surprise Jan. 28 move to raise the benchmark repurchase rate by a quarter point – – adding to increases of 50 basis points since he took over the Reserve Bank of India in September — was to stem consumer-price inflation running at close to 10 percent, he said.

Some economists are taking a stab at quantifying the effects of quantitative easing:

The economists, Jing Cynthia Wu and Fan Dora Xia, used a concept known as the “shadow rate” to gauge the impact of quantitative easing and the Fed’s forward guidance on the likely path of interest rates.

Their findings: as of December, Fed policy was the equivalent of cutting the benchmark interest rate to minus 1.98 percent, according to Wu at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and Xia at the University of California at San Diego.

Fan Dora Xia’s web page also shows his estimates for the ECB (-0.24% as of 2013-05-31) and the UK (-3.06% as of 2013-10-31).

Meanwhile, Argentinian bonds are doing what Argentinian bonds do best:

Argentine dollar bonds tumbled the most in emerging markets on concern government measures from devaluation to rate increases aren’t enough to improve the country’s deteriorating debt payment capacity.

Argentine government dollar bonds due 2015 fell 3.88 cents on the dollar to 85.75 cents, driving yields up to 19.12 percent, the highest since June 2012.

Argentina is losing foreign currency reserves at the fastest pace in more than a decade as estimated 28 percent inflation and currency controls spur capital flight. The funds, which the country relies on to pay debt and finance energy imports, dropped to a seven-year low of $28.3 billion. The government devalued the peso 15 percent last week and raised benchmark interest rates as much as 6 percentage points. The moves, coupled with less risk appetite for emerging market assets, haven’t settled investor concerns.

The Canadian preferred share market closed the month on a happy note, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 20bp, FixedResets gaining 5bp and DeemedRetractibles up 8bp. BAM Floating Rate issues were notable on the downside of a relatively lengthy Performance Highlights table. Volume was above average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.2602 % 2,417.2
FixedFloater 4.60 % 3.85 % 29,343 17.75 1 -2.2254 % 3,688.9
Floater 3.09 % 3.11 % 70,844 19.44 3 -1.2602 % 2,609.9
OpRet 4.61 % 0.45 % 76,810 0.16 3 0.0384 % 2,680.4
SplitShare 4.87 % 4.96 % 60,404 4.38 5 0.0806 % 3,010.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0384 % 2,451.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.61 % 2.56 % 112,971 0.09 13 0.0214 % 2,334.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.55 % 5.61 % 167,591 14.47 25 0.1960 % 2,392.3
FixedReset 4.88 % 3.71 % 219,552 4.47 84 0.0508 % 2,485.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.13 % 4.16 % 169,474 1.97 42 0.0773 % 2,415.7
FloatingReset 2.67 % 2.59 % 194,252 4.64 6 0.0335 % 2,440.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CIU.PR.C FixedReset -3.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 20.11
Evaluated at bid price : 20.11
Bid-YTW : 3.87 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -2.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 21.43
Evaluated at bid price : 20.65
Bid-YTW : 3.85 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 3.11 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 17.03
Evaluated at bid price : 17.03
Bid-YTW : 3.10 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 16.90
Evaluated at bid price : 16.90
Bid-YTW : 3.13 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 21.63
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 22.52
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.36
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 22.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 481,090 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 24.98
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 85,205 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 23.05
Evaluated at bid price : 24.80
Bid-YTW : 3.98 %
TD.PR.E FixedReset 82,372 TD crossed 70,000 at 25.23.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.24
Bid-YTW : 2.23 %
HSB.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 76,395 Canaccord sold 10,000 to Scotia at 25.25 and another 20,000 to TD at the same price. TD crossed 25,000 at the same price again. RBC crossed 14,000 at 25.29.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.24
Bid-YTW : 3.83 %
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount 62,908 Nesbitt crossed 55,700 at 22.69.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 22.27
Evaluated at bid price : 22.58
Bid-YTW : 5.33 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 56,800 TD crossed 50,000 at 26.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.15
Bid-YTW : 3.24 %
There were 40 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater Quote: 20.65 – 21.81
Spot Rate : 1.1600
Average : 0.6692

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 21.43
Evaluated at bid price : 20.65
Bid-YTW : 3.85 %

CIU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 20.11 – 21.00
Spot Rate : 0.8900
Average : 0.5632

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 20.11
Evaluated at bid price : 20.11
Bid-YTW : 3.87 %

BAM.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 23.76 – 24.07
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.1988

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 22.84
Evaluated at bid price : 23.76
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %

IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.51 – 25.80
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1975

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %

GWO.PR.F Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.52 – 25.79
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1920

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-02
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.52
Bid-YTW : -12.71 %

HSE.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 22.63 – 22.90
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1955

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-31
Maturity Price : 22.30
Evaluated at bid price : 22.63
Bid-YTW : 3.83 %

CWB.PR.A Called For Redemption

Friday, January 31st, 2014

Tagged on to the end of Canadian Western Bank’s new issue announcement was the line:

Subject to the approval of OSFI, CWB intends to redeem the currently outstanding non-cumulative 5-year rate reset First Preferred Shares Series 3 on April 30, 2014 in accordance with the terms of such shares.

This issue trades as CWB.PR.A and was added to the HIMIPref™ database in December 2012, after a tumultuous start of trading 2009-3-2 after being announced 2009-2-5. The warrants announced as part of that underwriting have done really well – exercisable for common at $14, which closed today at $36.43. Who needs dividends?

CWB.PR.A was a FixedReset, 7.25%+500, so it’s not really surprising that it’s been called.

New Issue: CWB FixedReset 4.40%+276

Friday, January 31st, 2014

Canadian Western Bank has announced:

its intent to issue $100 million of Basel III-compliant non-cumulative 5-year rate reset First Preferred Shares Series 5 (the “Series 5 Preferred Shares”). The offering will be underwritten on a bought deal basis by a syndicate led by National Bank Financial Inc. The expected closing date is February 10, 2014.

Under the terms of the offering, CWB will issue 4,000,000 Series 5 Preferred Shares at a price of $25.00 per share. CWB has also granted the underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part, to purchase on the same terms up to an additional 600,000 Series 5 Preferred Shares at any time up to two business days prior to closing.

Should the underwriters choose to exercise this option in full, the maximum gross proceeds raised under the offering will be $115 million.

Holders of the Series 5 Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive a non-cumulative fixed dividend in the amount of $1.10 annually, payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of CWB, for the initial period ending April 30, 2019. The quarterly dividend represents an annual yield of 4.40% based on the stated issue price per share. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a level of 276 basis points over the then 5-year Government of Canada bond yield. CWB maintains the right to redeem, subject to the approval of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (“OSFI”), up to all of the then outstanding Series 5 Preferred Shares on April 30, 2019, and on April 30 every five years thereafter at a price of $25.00 per share.

Should CWB choose not to exercise its right to redeem the Series 5 Preferred Shares, holders of these shares will have the right to convert their shares into an equal number of Basel III-compliant non-cumulative floating rate First Preferred Shares Series 6 (the “Series 6 Preferred Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on April 30, 2019, and on April 30 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 6 Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of CWB, equal to the 90-day Government of Canada Treasury Bill rate plus 276 basis points.

Net proceeds from the offering will be used for general corporate purposes and are expected to qualify as Tier 1 capital for CWB. This offering is made pursuant to the terms outlined in the prospectus supplement to CWB’s January 30, 2014 base shelf prospectus that will subsequently be filed. CWB will make an application to list the Series 5 Preferred Shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange as of the expected closing date.

Subject to the approval of OSFI, CWB intends to redeem the currently outstanding non-cumulative 5-year rate reset First Preferred Shares Series 3 on April 30, 2014 in accordance with the terms of such shares.

Later in the day, they announced:

that as a result of
strong investor demand for its previously announced domestic public offering of Basel III-compliant noncumulative 5-year rate reset First Preferred Shares Series 5, the size of the offering has been increased to 5 million shares. The gross proceeds of the offering will now be $125 million. The offering will be underwritten on a bought deal basis by a syndicate led by National Bank Financial Inc. The expected closing date is February 10, 2014.

Net proceeds from the offering will be used for general corporate purposes and are expected to qualify as Tier 1 capital for CWB.

They are provisionally rated Pfd-3 by DBRS (emphasis added):

DBRS has today assigned a provisional rating to Canadian Western Bank’s (the Bank or CWB) Non-Cumulative 5-year Rate Reset First Preferred Shares Series 5 (NVCC Preferred Shares Series 5 or Series 5) of Pfd-3 with a Stable trend.

DBRS assigned the NVCC Preferred Shares Series 5 a rating equal to that of the Bank’s intrinsic assessment less four rating notches, as the Series 5 has only an Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI)-compliant non-viable contingent capital (NVCC) trigger, which is consistent with the OSFI requirements for NVCC instrumentsDBRS has today assigned a provisional rating to Canadian Western Bank’s (the Bank or CWB) Non-Cumulative 5-year Rate Reset First Preferred Shares Series 5 (NVCC Preferred Shares Series 5 or Series 5) of Pfd-3 with a Stable trend.

DBRS assigned the NVCC Preferred Shares Series 5 a rating equal to that of the Bank’s intrinsic assessment less four rating notches, as the Series 5 has only an Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI)-compliant non-viable contingent capital (NVCC) trigger, which is consistent with the OSFI requirements for NVCC instruments, and no additional triggers.

January 30, 2014

Thursday, January 30th, 2014

I’m all in favour of ETFs (most of them, anyway. Not the silly ones). By reducing friction, they make it easier for small investors to construct a well diversified portfolio. Trouble ensues when all these small investors collectively become a tidal wave of dumb money:

Investors are pulling money from exchange-traded funds that track emerging markets at the fastest rate on record, as China’s slowing growth and cuts to central-bank stimulus sink currencies from Turkey to Brazil.

More than $7 billion flowed from ETFs investing in developing-nation assets in January, the most since the securities were created, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF has seen its assets shrink by 11 percent, while the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF is poised for the biggest monthly redemption since the fund was started in 2005. The WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund is on track for an eighth straight month of withdrawals.

Withdrawals from the iShares fund and the Vanguard ETF, the largest such products by assets for emerging markets, totaled $1.9 billion on Jan. 27, the biggest one-day redemption since 2005, data compiled by Bloomberg show. About $58 million has been withdrawn from the WisdomTree debt fund this month, bringing the total redemption since June to $752 million.

It will be most interesting to see if any smaller, derivative-based ETFs get into trouble as a result of all this.

Assiduous Readers will remember that I am most interested in good statistics regarding actual default rates of AAA US RMBS, as opposed to downgrades. The politicians are always whimpering about downgrades and seek to make them sound like defaults in their speeches. Today I found – free! – S&P’s Global Structured Finance Default Study, 1978-2012: A Defining Moment For Credit Performance Stability. Yep, downgrades are awful! No less than 70.68% of US RMBS were downgraded in 2009, as shown in the table on page 19. More seriously, 57.3% of investment-grade global structured finance instruments issued in 2006 have defaulted (page 24) and, even more seriously the Global Structured Finance Five-Year Default Rate for AAA issues for the five years ending 2012-12-31 was 12.91% (page 35). Regrettably, it’s not clear to me whether the US agencies’ default is included in these figures, or what the recovery on default was. Still, it’s a fascinating topic and I continue to keep my eyes peeled for solid analysis.

David Parkinson of the Globe writes a good piece about wage inflation:

Average weekly earnings, including overtime, were up 2.5 per cent in November compared with a year earlier – the fastest pace in six months. In November alone, average weekly wages jumped 0.9 per cent.

Statscan data show that average hourly earnings excluding overtime have barely moved in the past six months, but average earnings including overtime are up 1.2 per cent.

Curiously, though, the November wage growth came despite a drop in average weekly hours worked (to 33.1 from 32.8 a year earlier). This would seem to contradict the notion that overtime has been ramped up. However, given that most of the job growth in the past year has been in part-time positions, this could be a function of overtime shifts being spread among part-time workers.

It was a mildly negative day for the Canadian preferred share market, with both PerpetualDiscounts and FixedResets off 6bp and DeemedRetractibles flat. Volatility was very low. Volume was average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3092 % 2,448.0
FixedFloater 4.50 % 3.75 % 28,451 17.93 1 -0.7519 % 3,772.8
Floater 3.05 % 3.06 % 70,288 19.55 3 -0.3092 % 2,643.2
OpRet 4.61 % 1.07 % 77,636 0.33 3 0.0512 % 2,679.4
SplitShare 4.87 % 4.91 % 62,663 4.38 5 0.0968 % 3,008.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0512 % 2,450.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.61 % 1.93 % 117,005 0.09 13 0.0917 % 2,334.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.56 % 5.63 % 169,516 14.43 25 -0.0600 % 2,387.6
FixedReset 4.93 % 3.73 % 218,820 4.48 84 -0.0613 % 2,484.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.14 % 4.14 % 175,928 1.97 42 0.0021 % 2,413.9
FloatingReset 2.67 % 2.60 % 197,210 4.44 6 -0.2008 % 2,440.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-30
Maturity Price : 22.55
Evaluated at bid price : 22.93
Bid-YTW : 5.42 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-30
Maturity Price : 21.25
Evaluated at bid price : 21.25
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 1,429,936 New issue settled today.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-30
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 24.95
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 109,700 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-30
Maturity Price : 23.05
Evaluated at bid price : 24.79
Bid-YTW : 3.98 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset 76,076 Will reset at 3.52%. Scotia crossed 50,000 at 24.70.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 68,182 Will reset at 4.26%. Yield to Deemed Maturity 2022-1-31 at 25.00 is 3.85%. RBC bought 11,500 from National at 25.75 and another 17,100 from TD at the same price. TD also sold 11,600 to CIBC at 25.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : -15.92 %
BNS.PR.L Deemed-Retractible 55,225 Desjardins crossed 10,500 at 25.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-04-28
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.45
Bid-YTW : 3.80 %
BNS.PR.O Deemed-Retractible 50,400 RBC crossed 50,000 at 26.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-28
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.05
Bid-YTW : 0.47 %
There were 34 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 23.27 – 23.55
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1930

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-30
Maturity Price : 22.71
Evaluated at bid price : 23.27
Bid-YTW : 3.83 %

TD.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 25.23 – 25.44
Spot Rate : 0.2100
Average : 0.1359

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.23
Bid-YTW : 2.36 %

CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.25 – 21.48
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1570

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-30
Maturity Price : 21.25
Evaluated at bid price : 21.25
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %

FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.52 – 22.83
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2406

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-30
Maturity Price : 22.21
Evaluated at bid price : 22.52
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %

CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.93 – 23.20
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.2014

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-30
Maturity Price : 22.55
Evaluated at bid price : 22.93
Bid-YTW : 5.42 %

CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.00 – 23.33
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2620

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-30
Maturity Price : 22.61
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %

RY.PR.Z Firm on Impressive Volume

Thursday, January 30th, 2014

Royal Bank of Canada has announced:

it has closed its domestic public offering of Non-Cumulative, 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series AZ. Royal Bank of Canada issued 20 million Preferred Shares Series AZ at a price of $25 per share to raise gross proceeds of $500 million.

The offering was underwritten by a syndicate led by RBC Capital Markets. The Preferred Shares Series AZ will commence trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange today under the ticker symbol RY.PR.Z.

The Preferred Shares Series AZ were issued under a prospectus supplement dated January 23, 2014 to the bank’s short form base shelf prospectus dated
December 20, 2013.

RY.PR.Z is a NVCC-compliant FixedReset, 4.00%+221, announced January 21. This issue will be tracked by HIMIPref™ and is assigned to the FixedReset subindex.

The issue traded 1,429,936 shares today in a range of 24.75-97 before closing at 24.95-96, 26×77. Vital statistics are:

RY.PR.Z FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-30
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 24.95
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %

January 29, 2014

Thursday, January 30th, 2014

The Fed is forging ahead with tapering:

The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program, the Committee continues to see the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in February, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month.

And when the Fed speaks, Emerging Markets listen:

India’s central bank got the ball rolling with its surprise decision Tuesday to raise its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 8 per cent. Though it justified the move in terms of keeping a lid on inflation pressures, protecting the rupee is widely considered to have been a key motive.

Those considerations were clearly behind the decisions in Turkey and South Africa. The Central Bank of Turkey said it was raising its main overnight lending rate to 12 per cent from 7.75 per cent and more than doubling its one-week rate to 10 per cent from 4.5 per cent.

South Africa’s central bank was clear that the falling rand had a key role in its decision to raise its main interest rate by a half percentage point to 5.50 per cent despite concerns over growth.

“The history of using interest rates to defend a currency usually ends in tears,” said Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital.

MacKinnon pointed to the experience of Europe before the launch of the euro in 1999. Many currencies had been pegged to each other in the so-called Exchange Rate Mechanism and when markets became volatile in the early 1990s, central banks raised their interest rates to support their currencies.

However, that came at a cost, most notably in Britain. The government there left the currency pact after the Bank of England splashed out billions of pounds and raised its main interest rate a massive 5 per cent in one day in a last-ditch — and ultimately futile — effort to defeat the speculators.

The ERM example is not, I think, the best; there you had interest rate policy essentially being set in isolation with little regard for other problems:

Britain entered under conditions of high inflation, huge balance of payments deficits, a growing PSBR [Public Sector Borrowing Requirement, the government’s cash deficit], and political uncertainty.

Still, Black Wednesday remains vivid in my memory as one of the most fun days I’ve ever had in the market. The Canadian yield curve flattened like hell ‘n’ gone and I was trading all day in big size.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 1bp, FixedResets down 15bp and DeemedRetractibles off 3bp. A surprisingly lengthy Performance Highlights table is dominated by losers. Volume was at the high end of average.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.63%, equivalent to 7.32% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long Corporates now yield about 4.55% (maybe a little bit more?) so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 275bp, the same as in the January 22 report.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.0329 % 2,455.6
FixedFloater 4.46 % 3.71 % 27,859 17.99 1 0.0000 % 3,801.4
Floater 3.04 % 3.06 % 69,971 19.57 3 -1.0329 % 2,651.4
OpRet 4.61 % 1.32 % 77,112 0.33 3 -0.0384 % 2,678.0
SplitShare 4.88 % 5.03 % 62,202 4.38 5 -0.3375 % 3,005.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0384 % 2,448.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.61 % 2.41 % 116,252 0.10 13 -0.1556 % 2,332.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.56 % 5.63 % 169,352 14.43 25 0.0071 % 2,389.1
FixedReset 4.94 % 3.68 % 221,879 6.73 83 -0.1542 % 2,485.9
Deemed-Retractible 5.13 % 4.15 % 177,205 1.97 42 -0.0332 % 2,413.8
FloatingReset 2.66 % 2.58 % 197,759 4.44 6 -0.2266 % 2,445.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CGI.PR.D SplitShare -1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
CIU.PR.C FixedReset -1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-29
Maturity Price : 20.85
Evaluated at bid price : 20.85
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-29
Maturity Price : 23.49
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-29
Maturity Price : 17.28
Evaluated at bid price : 17.28
Bid-YTW : 3.06 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-29
Maturity Price : 17.14
Evaluated at bid price : 17.14
Bid-YTW : 3.08 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-29
Maturity Price : 22.89
Evaluated at bid price : 23.19
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-29
Maturity Price : 21.65
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
NA.PR.Q FixedReset 454,624 Resets at +243bp, so is probably hedging today’s new issue even though it’s not NVCC compliant.

TD crossed 216,700 at 24.90 and 174,700 at 24.95. RBC crossed 19,700 at 25.00.

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-11-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.02
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %

RY.PR.L FixedReset 275,335 Will reset at 4.26%. Yield to Deemed Maturity 2022-1-31 at 25.00 is 3.85%.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : -15.64 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset 122,490 Will reset at 3.52%.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.69
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
BMO.PR.N FixedReset 69,826 Will be redeemed 2014-2-25 at $25.00
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-27
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.37
Bid-YTW : 2.64 %
CM.PR.L FixedReset 64,110 Virtually certain to be called, with reset of +447. TD crossed two blocks of 20,000 each, both at 25.28. Desjardins crossed 14,800 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.28
Bid-YTW : 1.92 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 54,051 TD crossed 50,000 at 22.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-29
Maturity Price : 22.24
Evaluated at bid price : 22.56
Bid-YTW : 5.34 %
There were 37 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.22 – 25.56
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2078

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-29
Maturity Price : 25.03
Evaluated at bid price : 25.22
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %

CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.40 – 21.78
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2529

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-29
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.40
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %

BAM.PR.K Floater Quote: 17.14 – 17.43
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1729

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-29
Maturity Price : 17.14
Evaluated at bid price : 17.14
Bid-YTW : 3.08 %

RY.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 25.41 – 25.70
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1777

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.41
Bid-YTW : 2.61 %

HSE.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 22.66 – 22.90
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1509

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-29
Maturity Price : 22.32
Evaluated at bid price : 22.66
Bid-YTW : 3.83 %

SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 20.87 – 21.09
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1381

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.87
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %

New Issue: NA FixedReset 4.10%+240, NVCC

Wednesday, January 29th, 2014

The National Bank of Canada has announced:

that it has entered into an agreement with a group of underwriters led by National Bank Financial Inc. for an issue on a bought deal basis of 8 million Basel III-compliant non-cumulative 5-year rate reset first preferred shares series 30 (the “Series 30 Preferred Shares”), at a price of $25.00 per share, to raise gross proceeds of $200 million.

National Bank has also granted the underwriters an option to purchase, on the same terms, up to an additional 2 million Series 30 Preferred Shares. This option is exercisable in whole or in part by the underwriters at any time up to two business days prior to closing. The maximum gross proceeds raised under the offering will be $250 million should this option be exercised in full.

The Series 30 Preferred Shares will yield 4.10% annually, payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of National Bank, for the initial period ending May 15, 2019. The first of such dividends, if declared, shall be payable on May 15, 2014. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a level of 240 basis points over the then 5-year Government of Canada bond yield. Subject to regulatory approval, National Bank may redeem the Series 30 Preferred Shares in whole or in part at par on May 15, 2019 and on May 15 every five years thereafter.

Holders of the Series 30 Preferred Shares will have the right to convert their shares into an equal number of non-cumulative floating rate first preferred shares Series 31 (the “Series 31 Preferred Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on May 15, 2019, and on May 15 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 31 Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of National Bank, equal to the 90-day Government of Canada Treasury Bill rate plus 240 basis points.

The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes and are expected to qualify as Tier 1 capital for National Bank. The expected closing date is on or about February 7, 2014. National Bank intends to file in Canada a prospectus supplement to its October 5, 2012 base shelf prospectus in respect of this issue.

Looks like these things are selling like hotcakes (although how well hotcakes ever sold is a matter for conjecture)! The bank has issued another release:

as a result of strong investor demand for its previously announced domestic public offering of Non-cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset First Preferred Shares Series 30, the size of the offering has been increased to 14 million shares. The gross proceeds of the offering will now be $350 million. The offering will be underwritten by a syndicate led by National Bank Financial Inc. The expected closing date is February 7, 2014.

The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes and are expected to qualify as Tier 1 capital for National Bank.

January 28, 2014

Tuesday, January 28th, 2014

I always take heart from evidence that governments don’t really control economies:

When Argentina decided last week to ease limits on dollar purchases, it became the latest emerging-market nation to acknowledge that capital controls usually fail in masking an economy’s flaws.

Argentina allowed the peso to plunge 15 percent after the central bank began scaling back interventions in the foreign-exchange market on Jan. 22, spurring price increases of as much as 30 percent on consumer goods as international reserves fell to a seven-year low. The black-market price in Argentina rose last week to a record 12.75 pesos per dollar, compared with the official rate of about 8, according to Buenos Aires newspaper Ambito.

Restrictions on capital flows, ranging from Argentina’s tax on vacations abroad to Malaysia’s stabilizing the ringgit after the 1997 Asian crisis, have had mixed results in boosting investor confidence in a country’s economy. Capital outflow restrictions can be effective “if they are sufficiently comprehensive to slow a sudden ‘rush to the exit,’” according to a report by four International Monetary Fund researchers released this month.

In Venezuela, a decade of currency controls is fueling the world’s fastest inflation among the 114 economies tracked by Bloomberg and shortages of basic goods.

The official rate of 6.3 bolivars per dollar compares with the 75-bolivar rate on the black market. Official dollars therefore are the most profitable assets in the country, allowing people who have access to them enjoy a lifestyle far beyond the reach of an average Venezuelan.

The referenced paper by Christian Saborowski, Sarah Sanya, Hans Weisfeld and Juan Yepez has the abstract:

This paper examines the effectiveness of capital outflow restrictions in a sample of 37 emerging market economies during the period 1995-2010, using a panel vector autoregression approach with interaction terms. Specifically, it examines whether a tightening of outflow restrictions helps reduce net capital outflows. We find that such tightening is effective if it is supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals or good institutions, or if existing restrictions are already fairly comprehensive. When none of these three conditions is fulfilled, a tightening of restrictions fails to reduce net outflows as it provokes a sizeable decline in gross inflows, mainly driven by foreign investors.

Turkey’s done a lot of catching up!

Turkey’s central bank more than doubled its main interest rate at an emergency meeting, reversing years of policy after the lira slid to a record low.

The bank in Ankara raised the benchmark repo rate to 10 percent from 4.5 percent, according to a statement posted on its website at midnight. It also raised the overnight lending rate to 12 percent from 7.75 percent, and the overnight borrowing rate to 8 percent from 3.5 percent.

While most investors advocate higher rates to bolster the lira, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly railed against an “interest-rate lobby,” blaming it for a series of blows to his government, including last year’s wave of protests and the graft probe implicating his ministers.

Ignoring reality only makes it hit harder. But politicians never learn.

Sheila Bair has achieved the regulatory end-game:

Sheila Bair, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s chairman from 2006 to 2011, has been hired for a new gig as a board member at the Spanish lender Banco Santander SA. This seems to have gotten some people upset, even riled.

The general rule in banking is that it’s OK to become a regulator, put in a few years playing nice with the industry, then take a cushy board seat. Bair didn’t follow that path exactly. Now and then she made some remarks criticizing the way huge banks were run. But she never said anything so piercing or harsh that it distracted them from blowing up the financial system while she was FDIC chairman. She didn’t interfere with anybody’s bailout checks. She kept the FDIC’s bank-financed insurance fund woefully undercapitalized for years. It’s hard to see why “many in the banking world” are upset with her.

It was an unevenly good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 28bp, FixedResets flat and DeemedRetractibles gaining 9bp. Volatility was minimal. Volume was above average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1337 % 2,481.2
FixedFloater 4.46 % 3.71 % 28,931 17.99 1 0.0000 % 3,801.4
Floater 3.01 % 3.02 % 70,092 19.66 3 -0.1337 % 2,679.1
OpRet 4.61 % -0.17 % 77,978 0.17 3 0.0256 % 2,679.0
SplitShare 4.86 % 5.02 % 60,085 4.38 5 0.0804 % 3,015.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0256 % 2,449.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.61 % 1.22 % 118,023 0.09 13 0.1329 % 2,335.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.56 % 5.63 % 170,858 14.44 25 0.2796 % 2,388.9
FixedReset 4.93 % 3.66 % 219,998 4.19 83 -0.0029 % 2,489.8
Deemed-Retractible 5.13 % 4.12 % 177,753 1.98 42 0.0890 % 2,414.6
FloatingReset 2.66 % 2.51 % 198,468 4.28 6 -0.1464 % 2,450.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CIU.PR.C FixedReset -1.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-28
Maturity Price : 21.22
Evaluated at bid price : 21.22
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-28
Maturity Price : 22.43
Evaluated at bid price : 22.78
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.79
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.I FixedReset 81,652 Will reset at 3.52%.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
CM.PR.L FixedReset 81,375 Nesbitt crossed 30,000 at 25.28; Desjardins crossed 45,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.27
Bid-YTW : 2.05 %
BNS.PR.X FixedReset 80,700 RBC crossed 75,000 at 25.24.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.22
Bid-YTW : 2.26 %
BMO.PR.R FloatingReset 80,134 TD crossed 60,000 at 25.07.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-08-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.02
Bid-YTW : 2.51 %
TD.PR.E FixedReset 73,855 Nesbitt crossed 65,500 at 25.24.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.23
Bid-YTW : 2.31 %
TD.PR.T FloatingReset 68,220 TD crossed 60,000 at 25.02.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 2.37 %
There were 42 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CIU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 21.22 – 21.60
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2535

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-28
Maturity Price : 21.22
Evaluated at bid price : 21.22
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %

IAG.PR.F Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.49 – 25.83
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2435

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.49
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %

BNS.PR.B FloatingReset Quote: 24.78 – 25.01
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1622

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.78
Bid-YTW : 2.66 %

TD.PR.Y FixedReset Quote: 24.91 – 25.15
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1798

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.91
Bid-YTW : 3.52 %

BAM.PR.J OpRet Quote: 26.41 – 26.60
Spot Rate : 0.1900
Average : 0.1361

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.41
Bid-YTW : -1.72 %

ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.10 – 23.35
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1964

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-01-28
Maturity Price : 22.82
Evaluated at bid price : 23.10
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %

SJR.PR.A: Credit Outlook Positive, says S&P

Tuesday, January 28th, 2014

Standard & Poor’s has announced:

  • •Calgary-based Shaw Communications Inc. has notably improved its credit ratios in the last few quarters.
  • •We are affirming our ‘BBB-‘ corporate credit rating on Shaw and revising the outlook to positive from stable.
  • •The positive outlook reflects the potential of an upgrade in the next 12-18 months should the company demonstrate its commitment to managing adjusted debt to EBITDA at the mid-2x area and its operating performance is consistent with our base-case scenario.


Shaw’s subscription-based cable operations are the primary driver for the ratings given that this segment generates the majority of the company’s revenue, operating income, and cash flow and offers good asset protection to creditors, in our opinion. Shaw’s business risk profile is also supported by our assessment of the company’s management and governance as satisfactory.

Tempering factors, in our view, include rising competitive risks; video subscriber losses owing to the more ubiquitous triple- and quad-play offerings from well-capitalized telecom rivals and cord cutting; rising regulatory risk as regulators look for ways to unbundle video distribution (we estimate that Shaw has about 50% overall revenue exposure to video); potential for margin pressure stemming from a declining subscriber base and ongoing retention efforts; slowing overall revenue growth given a mature addressable market; the company’s historically acquisitive growth strategy; and the high capital expenditures, in general, needed to sustain competitiveness and maintain service differentiation.

The positive outlook reflects the potential of an upgrade in the next 12-18
months should the company demonstrate its commitment to managing adjusted debt to EBITDA at the mid-2x area and operating performance is consistent with our base-case scenario.

We could revise our outlook to stable should higher competition (likely from Telus) materially affect profitability or if substantive debt-funded shareholder distributions or acquisitions cause Shaw’s adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio to increase to the 3x area for a prolonged period.

SJR.PR.A commenced trading at the end of May, 2011. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

January 27, 2014

Monday, January 27th, 2014

This is interesting … the demand for physical gold is (currently) uncorrelated with demand for gold certificates:

Austria’s Muenze Oesterreich AG mint hired extra employees and added a third eight-hour shift to the day in a bid to keep up with demand. Purchases of bullion coins at Australia’s Perth Mint rose 20 percent this year through Jan. 20 from a year earlier. Sales by the U.S. Mint are set for the best month since April, when the metal plunged into a bear market.

Global mints are manufacturing as fast as they can after a 28 percent drop in gold prices last year, the biggest slump since 1981, attracted buyers of physical metal. The demand gains helped bullion rally for five straight weeks, the longest streak since September 2012. That won’t be enough to stem the metal’s slump according to Morgan Stanley, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts bullion will “grind lower” over 2014.

“The long-term physical buyers see these price drops as opportunities to accumulate more assets,” said Michael Haynes, the chief executive officer of American Precious Metals Exchange, an online bullion dealer. “We have witnessed some top selling days in the past few weeks.”

Gold ETFs have always struck me as being something of an internal contradiction. If the world dissolves in hyperinflation followed by chaos, do you really want to own an electronic record that gives you ownership of part of a company that holds title to some gold three thousand miles away? Although mind you, if I did want to stockpile something as chaos insurance, I’d prefer something of more practical value … books, spices, a smithy, ammunition.

We have another entry for the ‘Unintended Consequences’ competition:

Ten years ago, Congress passed a law intended to penalize chief executive officers whose companies shift their legal addresses to tax havens.

It hasn’t worked out as planned. Companies have found ways around the law that create new rewards for executives. When Actavis Inc. (ACT) changed its incorporation to Ireland in October, the New Jersey-based drugmaker helped CEO Paul Bisaro avoid the law’s bite by handing him more than $40 million of stock as much as three years ahead of its schedule, then promising him an additional $5 million to remain with the company.

The payouts to executives highlight the ineffectiveness of the 2004 law, which contained a series of provisions aimed at reducing the tax benefits of reincorporating overseas. In the past two years, a fresh wave of companies has fled the U.S. system to avoid hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes.

The 2004 law has “clearly been a failure” in halting the tax exodus, said Edward Kleinbard, a professor at University of Southern California’s Gould School of Law. “And it now has the perverse result of putting money into executives’ pockets sooner.”

The law imposes a special tax of 15 percent on restricted stock and options held by the most senior executives when a company reincorporates outside the U.S. Since the measure took effect, at least seven large companies have disclosed in securities filings that they risked triggering the tax. All took steps to shield their executives from having to pay.

The consequences of the regulators’ assault on public markets is also becoming more clear:

Facebook Inc. (FB)’s 2012 stock market debut helped spark a boom in U.S. initial public offerings, sucking the life out of a Wall Street fad that the social network had helped popularize: private share exchanges.

[NASDAQ honcho Robert] Greifeld’s proposed Nasdaq Private Market would help companies large and small let employees trade while avoiding the disclosure requirements and compliance standards that publicly traded firms face. A barrier was reduced in 2012 with the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act, which quadrupled to 2,000 the number of shareholders a company could have before it needed to disclose financials.

To succeed, Nasdaq Private Market must persuade more companies to forgo the rewards of being public, such as the lure of greater riches and the brand recognition that comes with a ticker symbol. And only accredited investors — such as large institutions and wealthy individuals — will be eligible to buy stakes, limiting the pool of potential shareholders.

And, in the latest inflation chatter:

One of Janet Yellen’s first challenges as Federal Reserve chairman is generating enough inflation to meet the central bank’s target of 2 percent.

Policy makers have failed to attain their goal for almost two years and now are paring the pace of their bond buying. Inflation rose at a 0.9 percent rate for the 12 months ending in November, according to the central bank’s preferred measure. The last time prices were climbing at or above 2 percent was in April 2012.

Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said in a Jan. 7 speech that too-low inflation can be “a cause for real concern” because it increases the possibility a “negative shock” to the economy may lead to deflation. That could cause households to delay purchases in anticipation of even lower prices and companies to postpone investment and hiring as demand for their products dries up. Too-low inflation also means higher inflation-adjusted interest rates, making it harder to achieve a sufficient pace of growth.

“Furthermore, persistently low inflation can theoretically undermine the credibility of the central bank,” said Rosengren, who dissented against the December decision to cut monthly bond buying by $10 billion. If the Fed announces a goal “but is unable to achieve that target in a reasonable time frame, some may call into question its ability to do so in the medium- or long-term as well.”

It was a quiet day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 4bp, FixedResets flat and DeemedRetractibles up 8bp. Volatility was more than might be expected given these figures, but with no clear pattern. Volume was low; but such as there was was dominated by the RY FixedResets with the February Exchange Date.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.7018 % 2,484.6
FixedFloater 4.46 % 3.71 % 30,137 17.99 1 0.0470 % 3,801.4
Floater 3.01 % 3.03 % 70,388 19.65 3 -0.7018 % 2,682.6
OpRet 4.61 % 0.95 % 79,228 0.34 3 0.0128 % 2,678.3
SplitShare 4.87 % 5.02 % 60,206 4.39 5 -0.0804 % 3,013.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0128 % 2,449.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.61 % 1.02 % 118,154 0.09 13 0.0581 % 2,332.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.57 % 5.62 % 173,631 14.44 25 0.0354 % 2,382.2
FixedReset 4.93 % 3.68 % 221,458 4.49 83 0.0044 % 2,489.8
Deemed-Retractible 5.14 % 4.16 % 176,209 1.98 42 0.0793 % 2,412.5
FloatingReset 2.66 % 2.48 % 199,185 4.29 6 -0.2389 % 2,454.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.92 % YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Limit Maturity

Maturity Date : 2044-01-27

Maturity Price : 21.43

Evaluated at bid price : 21.43

Bid-YTW : 5.46 %

PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Limit Maturity

Maturity Date : 2044-01-27

Maturity Price : 21.80

Evaluated at bid price : 22.11

Bid-YTW : 5.44 %

CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Limit Maturity

Maturity Date : 2044-01-27

Maturity Price : 22.51

Evaluated at bid price : 22.88

Bid-YTW : 5.43 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Limit Maturity

Maturity Date : 2044-01-27

Maturity Price : 21.26

Evaluated at bid price : 21.26

Bid-YTW : 4.30 %

BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Limit Maturity

Maturity Date : 2044-01-27

Maturity Price : 21.00

Evaluated at bid price : 21.00

Bid-YTW : 5.91 %

TRP.PR.C FixedReset 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Limit Maturity

Maturity Date : 2044-01-27

Maturity Price : 21.54

Evaluated at bid price : 21.92

Bid-YTW : 3.72 %

FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Limit Maturity

Maturity Date : 2044-01-27

Maturity Price : 22.19

Evaluated at bid price : 22.50

Bid-YTW : 5.35 %

BNS.PR.Y FixedReset 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Hard Maturity

Maturity Date : 2022-01-31

Maturity Price : 25.00

Evaluated at bid price : 23.82

Bid-YTW : 3.51 %

Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.N FixedReset 221,370 Called for redemption.
YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Call

Maturity Date : 2014-03-26

Maturity Price : 25.00

Evaluated at bid price : 24.96

Bid-YTW : 4.28 %

RY.PR.P FixedReset 169,296 Called for redemption.
YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Call

Maturity Date : 2014-03-26

Maturity Price : 25.00

Evaluated at bid price : 24.96

Bid-YTW : 4.28 %

RY.PR.R FixedReset 138,274 Called for redemption.
YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Call

Maturity Date : 2014-03-26

Maturity Price : 25.00

Evaluated at bid price : 24.96

Bid-YTW : 4.28 %

RY.PR.I FixedReset 67,748 Will be extended at 3.52%. Calculated yield assumes conversion.
YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Hard Maturity

Maturity Date : 2022-01-31

Maturity Price : 25.00

Evaluated at bid price : 24.77

Bid-YTW : 3.68 %

TD.PR.A FixedReset 64,817 Called for redemption.
YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Hard Maturity

Maturity Date : 2022-01-31

Maturity Price : 25.00

Evaluated at bid price : 24.99

Bid-YTW : 3.63 %

BNS.PR.L Deemed-Retractible 54,640 Nesbitt crossed two blocks of 25,000 each, both at 25.43.
YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Call

Maturity Date : 2015-04-28

Maturity Price : 25.25

Evaluated at bid price : 25.46

Bid-YTW : 3.74 %

There were 23 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.43 – 21.99

Spot Rate : 0.5600

Average : 0.3514YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Limit Maturity

Maturity Date : 2044-01-27

Maturity Price : 21.43

Evaluated at bid price : 21.43

Bid-YTW : 5.46 %

CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.88 – 23.26

Spot Rate : 0.3800

Average : 0.2424YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Limit Maturity

Maturity Date : 2044-01-27

Maturity Price : 22.51

Evaluated at bid price : 22.88

Bid-YTW : 5.43 %

BNS.PR.N Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.85 – 26.14

Spot Rate : 0.2900

Average : 0.2031YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Call

Maturity Date : 2014-02-28

Maturity Price : 25.75

Evaluated at bid price : 25.85

Bid-YTW : -0.13 %

TD.PR.Z FloatingReset Quote: 24.85 – 25.05

Spot Rate : 0.2000

Average : 0.1275YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Call

Maturity Date : 2018-10-31

Maturity Price : 25.00

Evaluated at bid price : 24.85

Bid-YTW : 2.59 %

TD.PR.Y FixedReset Quote: 25.02 – 25.20

Spot Rate : 0.1800

Average : 0.1137YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Hard Maturity

Maturity Date : 2022-01-31

Maturity Price : 25.00

Evaluated at bid price : 25.02

Bid-YTW : 3.46 %

ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.05 – 21.32

Spot Rate : 0.2700

Average : 0.2050YTW SCENARIO

Maturity Type : Limit Maturity

Maturity Date : 2044-01-27

Maturity Price : 21.05

Evaluated at bid price : 21.05

Bid-YTW : 5.69 %