Archive for the ‘Index Construction / Reporting’ Category

Index Performance: May 2009

Saturday, May 30th, 2009

Performance of the HIMIPref™ Indices for May, 2009, was:

Total Return
Index Performance
April May 2009
Three Months
to
May 29, 2009
Ratchet +33.18% * +55.96% *
FixFloat +33.18% ** +55.96% **
Floater +33.18% +55.96%
OpRet +1.35% +5.84%
SplitShare +3.50% +11.15%
Interest 0.0% +2.57%
PerpetualPremium +4.24%*** +14.65%***
PerpetualDiscount +4.24% +14.65%%
FixedReset +2.05% +10.55%
* The last member of the RatchetRate index was transferred to Scraps at the February, 2009, rebalancing; subsequent performance figures are set equal to the Floater index
** The last member of the FixedFloater index was transferred to Scraps at the February, 2009, rebalancing. Performance figures to 2009-5-29 are set equal to the Floater index. The FixedFloater index acquired a member on 2009-5-29.
*** The last member of the PerpetualPremium index was transferred to PerpetualDiscount at the October, 2008, rebalancing; subsequent performance figures are set equal to the PerpetualDiscount index
Passive Funds (see below for calculations)
CPD +3.99% +11.90%
DPS.UN +6.35% +14.30%
Index
BMO-CM 50 % %

There is still a negative total return over one year – even for Floaters, despite their astonishing rise in the past three months:


Click for big

Claymore has published NAV and distribution data for its exchange traded fund (CPD) and I have derived the following table:

CPD Return, 1- & 3-month, to May 29, 2009
Date NAV Distribution Return for Sub-Period Monthly Return
February 27, 2009 14.40 0.00    
March 26 14.19 0.2100 0.00% +0.63%
March 31, 2009 14.28   +0.63%
April 30 15.27 0.00   +6.93%
May 29, 2009 15.88 0.00   +3.99%
Quarterly Return +11.90%

The DPS.UN NAV for May 27 has been published so we may calculate the May returns (approximately!) for this closed end fund.

DPS.UN NAV Return, May-ish 2009
Date NAV Distribution Return for period
April 29, 2009 17.07    
May 27, 2009 18.18 0.00 +6.50%
Estimated April Ending Stub** +0.33%
Estimated May Ending Stub +0.19%
Estimated May Return +6.35%
** CPD had a NAV of $15.22 on April 29 and a NAV of $15.27 on April 30. The return for the day was therefore +0.33%. This figure is subtracted from the DPS.UN period return to arrive at an estimate for the calendar month.
* CPD had a NAV of $15.85 on May 27 and a NAV of $15.88 on May 29. The return for the period was therefore +0.19%. This figure is added to the DPS.UN period return to arrive at an estimate for the calendar month.
The May return for DPS.UN’s NAV is therefore the product of three period returns, +6.50%, -0.33% and +0.19% to arrive at an estimate for the calendar month of +6.35%

Now, to see the DPS.UN quarterly NAV approximate return, we refer to the calculations for March and April:

DPS.UN NAV Returns, three-month-ish to end-May-ish, 2009
March-ish -0.23%
April-ish +7.72%
May-ish +6.35%
Three-months-ish +14.30%

HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: May 2009

Saturday, May 30th, 2009
HIMI Index Changes, May 29, 2009
Issue From To Because
BAM.PR.G Scraps FixFloat Volume
ACO.PR.A OpRet Scraps Volume

I spent the latter part of the month hoping that CU.PR.B was going to make the leap from PerpetualDiscount to PerpetualPremium, but it fell just shy, closing May 29 at 24.90-99, 13×3. Maybe next month!

But on a brighter note, we now have an issue in the FixedFloater index!

There were the following intra-month changes:

HIMI Index Changes during May 2009
Issue Action Index Because
SLF.PR.F Add FixedReset New issue
CCS.PR.D Add Scraps New issue

Index Performance: April 2009

Monday, May 4th, 2009

Performance of the HIMIPref™ Indices for April, 2009, was:

Total Return
Index Performance
April 2009
Three Months
to
April 30, 2009
Ratchet +11.53% * +13.98% *
FixFloat +11.53% ** +13.36% **
Floater +11.53% +28.50%
OpRet +3.12% +5.65%
SplitShare +7.40% -1.35%
Interest +2.68% -1.27%
PerpetualPremium +8.84%*** +5.65%***
PerpetualDiscount +8.84% +5.65%%
FixedReset +6.27% +7.87%
* The last member of the RatchetRate index was transferred to Scraps at the February, 2009, rebalancing; subsequent performance figures are set equal to the Floater index
** The last member of the FixedFloater index was transferred to Scraps at the February, 2009, rebalancing; subsequent performance figures are set equal to the PerpetualDiscount index
*** The last member of the PerpetualPremium index was transferred to PerpetualDiscount at the October, 2008, rebalancing; subsequent performance figures are set equal to the PerpetualDiscount index
Funds (see below for calculations)
CPD +6.93% +6.34%
DPS.UN +7.72% +5.55%
Index
BMO-CM 50 +6.37% +5.08%

The recent rally has been most welcome, but we’re still a long way from where we were:

Claymore has published NAV and distribution data for its exchange traded fund (CPD) and I have derived the following table:

CPD Return, 1- & 3-month, to April 30, 2009
Date NAV Distribution Return for Sub-Period Monthly Return
January 30, 2009 14.57 0.00    
February 27, 2009 14.40 0.00   -1.17%
March 26 14.19 0.2100 0.00% +0.63%
March 31, 2009 14.28   +0.63%
April 30, 2009 15.27 0.00   +6.93%
Quarterly Return +6.34%

The DPS.UN NAV for April 29 has been published so we may calculate the March returns (approximately!) for this closed end fund.

DPS.UN NAV Return, April-ish 2009
Date NAV Distribution Return for period
April 1, 2009 16.02 0.00 &nbsp
April 29, 2009 17.07 0.00 +6.55%
Estimated April Beginning Stub +0.77%
Estimated April Ending Stub +0.33%
Estimated April Return +7.72%
** CPD had a NAV of $14.39 on April 1 and a NAV of $14.28 on March 31. The return for the day was therefore 0.77%. This figure is added to the DPS.UN period return to arrive at an estimate for the calendar month.
** CPD had a NAV of $15.22 on April 29 and a NAV of $15.27 on April 30. The return for the day was therefore +0.33%. This figure is added to the DPS.UN period return to arrive at an estimate for the calendar month.
The April return for DPS.UN’s NAV is therefore the product of four period returns, +0.77%, +6.55% and +0.33 to arrive at an estimate for the calendar month of +7.72%

Now, to see the DPS.UN quarterly NAV approximate return, we refer to the calculations for February and March:

DPS.UN NAV Returns, three-month-ish to end-April-ish, 2009
February-ish -1.79%
March-ish -0.23%
April-ish +7.72%
Three-months-ish +5.55%

HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: April 2009

Friday, May 1st, 2009
HIMI Index Changes, April 30, 2009
Issue From To Because
BNA.PR.B SplitShare Scraps Volume
CGI.PR.B Scraps SplitShare Volume
TRI.PR.B Scraps Floater Volume

To my chagrin, there are now only two issues left in the SplitShare index, all from BAM Split Corp.: BNA.PR.A and BNA.PR.C.

There were the following intra-month changes:

HIMI Index Changes during April 2009
Issue Action Index Because
RY.PR.X Add FixedReset New issue
NSI.PR.C Delete Scraps Redeemed
WN.PR.B Delete Scraps Redeemed
HSB.PR.E Add FixedReset New Issue
RY.PR.Y Add FixedReset New Issue

HSB.PR.E is one of those issues which are sent to try us. It was announced on March 23 with an anticipated closing date of March 31. I assumed it had settled – albeit without trading – and added it to the index for March 31. However, the issue had not settled; there were problems due to the downgrade by S&P. A new term sheet was released and the issue settled on April 8.

Update: The SplitShares index is now comprised of BNA.PR.A, BNA.PR.C & CGI.PR.B.

Market Rally: Nearly Back to September Levels

Friday, April 17th, 2009

I have graphed the performance of the HIMIPref™ indices back to August 29 … remember that these are Total Return indices, not Price Indices.

Index Performance: March 2009

Monday, April 6th, 2009

Performance of the HIMIPref™ Indices for March, 2009, was:

Total Return
Index Performance
March 2009
Three Months
to
March 31, 209
Ratchet -2.67% * +5.00% *
FixFloat +5.00% ** +12.41% **
Floater +5.00% +10.19%
OpRet +1.27% +5.36%
SplitShare +0.00% -6.53%
Interest -0.11% +4.98%
PerpetualPremium +1.05%*** +3.33%***
PerpetualDiscount +1.05% +3.33%%
FixedReset +1.93% +1.77%
* The last member of the RatchetRate index was transferred to Scraps at the February, 2009, rebalancing; subsequent performance figures are set equal to the Floater index
** The last member of the FixedReset index was transferred to Scraps at the February, 2009, rebalancing; subsequent performance figures are set equal to the PerpetualDiscount index
*** The last member of the PerpetualPremium index was transferred to PerpetualDiscount at the October, 2008, rebalancing; subsequent performance figures are set equal to the PerpetualDiscount index
Funds (see below for calculations)
CPD +0.63% +2.69%
DPS.UN -0.23% +3.58%
Index
BMO-CM 50 +0.31% +2.72%

Claymore has published NAV and distribution data for its exchange traded fund (CPD) and I have derived the following table:

CPD Return, 1- & 3-month, to March 31, 2009
Date NAV Distribution Return for Sub-Period Monthly Return
December 31, 2008 14.11 0.00    
January 30, 2009 14.57 0.00   +3.26%
February 27, 2009 14.40 0.00   -1.17%
March 26 14.19 0.2100 0.00% +0.63%
March 31, 2009 14.28   +0.63%
Quarterly Return +2.69%

The DPS.UN NAV for April 1 has been published so we may calculate the March returns (approximately!) for this closed end fund.

DPS.UN NAV Return, March-ish 2009
Date NAV Distribution Return for period
Estimated February Ending Stub +0.21%
February 25, 2009 16.27    
March 25, 2009 16.11   -0.98%
March 27, 2009 15.81* 0.30 0.00%*
April 1, 2009 16.02 0.00 +1.33%
Estimated April Beginning Stub -0.77%
Estimated March Return -0.23%
** CPD had a NAV of $14.43 on February 25 and $14.40 on February 27. Return for this period for CPD was therefore -0.21%, which is subtracted from the DPS period return.
* CPD had a NAV of $14.40 on March 25 and $14.19 on March 26 after a $0.21 distribution. The NAV was 14.19 on March 27. Therefore, the total return on CPD for this full period was 0.00%. This has been used to estimate a post-distribution NAV for DPS.UN on March 27..
** CPD had a NAV of $14.39 on April 1 and a NAV of $14.28 on March 31. The return for the day was therefore 0.77%. This figure is subtracted from the DPS.UN period return to arrive at an estimate for the calendar month.
The April return for DPS.UN’s NAV is therefore the product of four period returns, +0.21, -0.98%, +1.33 and -0.77%, to arrive at an estimate for the calendar month of -0.23%

Now, to see the DPS.UN quarterly NAV approximate return, we refer to the calculations for January and February

DPS.UN NAV Returns, three-month-ish to end-March-ish, 2009
January-ish +5.71%
February-ish -1.79%
March-ish -0.23%
Three-months-ish +3.58%

HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: March 2009

Tuesday, March 31st, 2009
HIMI Index Changes, March, 2009
Issue From To Because
PWF.PR.A Floater Scraps Volume
DFN.PR.A SplitShare Scraps Credit
LFE.PR.A SplitShare Scraps Credit
SBN.PR.A SplitShare Scraps Credit

To my chagrin, there are now only three issues left in the SplitShare index, all from BAM Split Corp.: BNA.PR.A, BNA.PR.B and BNA.PR.C.

There were the following intra-month changes:

HIMI Index Changes during March 2009
Issue Action Index Because
FAL.PR.B Delete Scraps Redeemed
MFC.PR.D Add FixedReset New Issue
TD.PR.I Add FixedReset New Issue
CM.PR.M Add FixedReset New Issue
MFC.PR.D Add FixedReset New Issue
RY.PR.T Add FixedReset New Issue
BNS.PR.S Delete FixedReset Coverage Discontinued
MFC.PR.D Add FixedReset New Issue
BMO.PR.O Add FixedReset New Issue
CIU.PR.B Add FixedReset New Issue
HSB.PR.E Add FixedReset New Issue

HSB.PR.E is one of those issues which are sent to try us. It was announced on March 23 with an anticipated closing date of March 31. I have seen nothing to indicate that it didn’t close, but while HSBC Canada may well have received their cheque for $175-250-million, not a single share changed hands on the exchange. With any luck, we’ll see a trade or two tomorrow.

HIMIPref™ Indices: Median Average Trading Value

Tuesday, March 24th, 2009

I got curious about this.

The averageTradingValue for an individual issue is calculated as volume-average * flatBidPrice-Average

where

volume – average Report Summary
The volume-average attribute is calculated from volume-spot and the instrumentVolumeInfoDecay parameter using an adjusted exponential moving average. First, if the spot data exceeds the existing average by a factor of more than volumeAveragingCap then the calculation is performed as if the new data was equal to the product of the existing average and the cap factor. This ensures that volume spikes will not affect the system’s perception of the issue’s liquidity – spikes may occur, for instance, when a major shareholder sells a major block. Secondly, if existing average exceeds the spot data by a factor of more than this same volumeAveragingCap, then the damping factor used in the calculation will not be instrumentVolumeInfoDecay, but rather the square of this number. This helps avoid the system assuming greater liquidity in an issue than will otherwise be the case when volume is declining precipituously – immediately after issue, for instance, or after accumulation of a significant block by a “buy-and-hold” investor.

The volume figures for the HIMIPref™ indices are reported as the median averageTradingVolume for the index, where the median is calculated by ordering the constituent issues by averageTradingVolume and taking the median by constituent issue weight; e.g., half the index by weight will have a greater averageTradingValue, half will have less.

The reported volume for the FixedReset index has been boosted by the flood of new issues; a new issue’s AverageTradingValue is set by default to $2.5-million, which will usually increase a bit in the period immediately after issue and then decay until it reaches an equilibrium figure. These new issues, with the large AverageTradingValues, have influenced the reported average greatly by two mechanisms:

  • the median issue has almost always not reached equilibrium on calculation date
  • the issue chosen as the median has generally been in the middle of a gap, resulting in jumps when the weight of new issues changes the median

So, anyway, I thought I’d plot the reported figures and compare them with a mature market, PerpetualDiscounts. The influence of the tax-loss-selling-end-of-the-universe frenzy can be clearly seen in the latter plot.

PerpetualDiscount Yield Distribution

Thursday, March 5th, 2009

Rather an odd thing happened with the HIMIPref™ PerpetualDiscount Indices today … compare the published index data:

HIMIPref™ PerpetualDiscount Index
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Date Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
March 4 7.34 % 7.46 % 172,278 12.03 71 -0.1996 % 1,354.8
March 5 7.44 % 7.43 % 172,255 12.00 71 -1.3749 % 1,336.1

See that? It’s most peculiar … The PerpetualDiscount index got hammered today, down 1.37% which would normally be expected to be about equivalent to a 10bp uptick in yields … but the reported YTW was actually down 3bp! Today, anyway, the mean current yield did a far better job of explaining the total return of the index.

So I had a little look …

There’s nothing particularly surprising about the distribution – one would normally expect to see the top credits clustered in a top credits’ zone, with the distribution showing a positive skew as they tail off into the … er … not-quite-top credits’ zone (although, I hasten to add, all members of the index are rated Pfd-2(low) or higher by DBRS).

But it must be remembered that I report the Median-by-Weight YTW. This was done on purpose; the problem I found while experimenting with various formats was that reporting mean-by-weight caused immense volatility in the data, as outliers had a large effect on the calculated number. This is not so much a problem with the PerpetualDiscounts index now that it has 71 members, but can be a problem with smaller data sets.

Anyway, for better or worse, I report Median-by-Weight; and today the Median-by-Weight is W.PR.H with a yield of 7.43%.

Now let’s look at the gaps between each of these issues:

And – you guessed it! The gap between W.PR.H and the next higher yielding issue (GWO.PR.I, 7.53%) is 10bp, as large a gap as you get in the important range of yields. A few pennies worth of price changes, and GWO.PR.I would have been the median issue and the return of -1.37% would have been matched with a reported increase in median YTW of 7bp … not a perfect modified-duration-approved relationship; but then, it isn’t supposed to be.

I can’t, at this point, think of any way to use this insight; but the more little odd factoids one understands, the better chance there is of achieving a useful understanding.

Index Performance: February 2009

Wednesday, March 4th, 2009

Performance of the HIMIPref™ Indices for February, 2009, was:

Total Return
Index Performance
February 2009
Three Months
to
February 27, 2009
Ratchet -2.67% -19.56%
FixFloat -3.20% -9.65%
Floater +9.73% +40.84%
OpRet +1.17% +6.08%
SplitShare -8.14% +10.66%
Interest -3.74% +7.19%
PerpetualPremium -3.94%* +13.18%*
PerpetualDiscount -3.94% +13.18%%
FixedReset -0.41% +3.94%
* The last member of the PerpetualPremium index was transferred to PerpetualDiscount at the October rebalancing; subsequent performance figures are set equal to the PerpetualDiscount index
Funds (see below for calculations)
CPD -1.17% +9.48%
DPS.UN -1.79% +9.68%
Omega Pref. N/A N/A
Index
BMO-CM 50 -1.52% +8.95%

Claymore has published NAV and distribution data for its exchange traded fund (CPD) and I have derived the following table:

CPD Return, 1- & 3-month, to February, 2009
Date NAV Distribution Return for Sub-Period Monthly Return
November 28, 2008 13.37      
Dec 24 12.92 0.2135 -1.77% +7.28%
Dec 31, 2008 14.11   +9.21%
January 30, 2009 14.57 0.00   +3.26%
February 27, 2009 14.40 0.00   -1.17%
Quarterly Return +9.48%

The DPS.UN NAV for February 25 has been published so we may calculate the February returns (approximately!) for this closed end fund.

DPS.UN NAV Return, February-ish 2009
Date NAV Distribution Return for period
January 28, 2009 16.51    
February 25, 2009 16.27   -1.45%
Estimated January Ending Stub * +0.14%
Estimated February Ending Stub ** -0.21%
Estimated February Return -1.79%
* CPD had a NAV of $14.55 on January 28 and $14.57 on January 30. Return for this period for CPD was therefore +0.14%, which is subtracted from the DPS period return.
** CPD had a NAV of $14.43 on February 25 and $14.40 on February 27. Return for this period for CPD was therefore -0.21%, which is added to the DPS period return.
The February return for DPS.UN’s NAV is therefore the product of three period returns, -1.45%, -0.14% and -0.21%, to arrive at an estimate for the calendar month of -1.79%

Now, to see the DPS.UN quarterly NAV approximate return, we refer to the calculations for December and January.

DPS.UN NAV Returns, three-month-ish to end-January-ish, 2009
December-ish +5.65%
January-ish +5.71%
February-ish -1.79%
Three-months-ish +9.68%