PrefBlog

The Bank of Canada has announced:

The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. This unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound and is intended to provide support to the Canadian financial system and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The spread of COVID-19 is having serious consequences for Canadians and for the economy, as is the abrupt decline in world oil prices. The pandemic-driven contraction has prompted decisive fiscal policy action in Canada to support individuals and businesses and to minimize any permanent damage to the structure of the economy.

The Bank is playing an important complementary role in this effort. Its interest rate setting cushions the impact of the shocks by easing the cost of borrowing. Its efforts to maintain the functioning of the financial system are helping keep credit available to people and companies. The intent of our decision today is to support the financial system in its central role of providing credit in the economy, and to lay the foundation for the economy’s return to normalcy.

The Bank’s efforts have been primarily focused on ensuring the availability of credit by providing liquidity to help markets continue to function. To promote credit availability, the Bank has expanded its various term repo facilities. To preserve market function, the Bank is conducting Government of Canada bond buybacks and switches, purchases of Canada Mortgage Bonds and banker’s acceptances, and purchases of provincial money market instruments. All these additional measures have been detailed on the Bank’s website and will be extended or augmented as needed.

Today, the Bank is launching two new programs.

First, the Commercial Paper Purchase Program (CPPP) will help to alleviate strains in short-term funding markets and thereby preserve a key source of funding for businesses. Details of the program will be available on the Bank’s web site.

Second, to address strains in the Government of Canada debt market and to enhance the effectiveness of all other actions taken so far, the Bank will begin acquiring Government of Canada securities in the secondary market. Purchases will begin with a minimum of $5 billion per week, across the yield curve. The program will be adjusted as conditions warrant, but will continue until the economic recovery is well underway. The Bank’s balance sheet will expand as a result of these purchases.

The Bank is closely monitoring economic and financial conditions, in coordination with other G7 central banks and fiscal authorities, and will update its outlook in mid-April. As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to take further action as required to support the Canadian economy and financial system and to keep inflation on target.

Changes to prime have not been announced yet, but watch this space!

The Big Banks have followed with their prime rates – at least, according to the two announcements made public as of initial publication of this post. Sadly, we do not know what has been done with the banks’ top secret internal primes or the spreads to Prime that the average customer might see on his renewal notice.

Details are:

• RY : Prime down 50bp to 2.45%
• BNS : Prime down 50bp to 2.45%
• NA :
• TD :
• BMO : Prime down 50bp to 2.45%
• CIBC : Prime down 50bp to 2.45%

TD did not issue a press release, but did put out some puffery:

More help is here. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and his team have been proactive and creative in their response to the pandemic, and today’s announcement continues this trend. The Bank of Canada not only sliced its policy rate back to 0.25%, but also delivered two new asset purchases programs, including quantitative easing ‘proper’, specifying that its purchases of Government of Canada securities will result in a larger balance sheet. These are welcome developments that, together with the string of liquidity and other measures of recent weeks, provide a solid backstop to the Canadian financial system. These actions should also reinforce the transmission of monetary policy, providing a fair bit of gas to the economic recovery when the pandemic is finally behind us.

Getting from here to there will not be easy, and so we should not be surprised to see further announcements in the coming weeks as markets digest the implications of the economic sudden stop (see our recent forecast update for our current estimates of the implications on growth and labour markets).

Looking ahead, in a break from past research and communications that had put negative interest rates on the table, Governor Poloz and his team have now seemingly ruled any further cuts out, referring to 0.25% as the effective lower bound. This had been hinted at by the Governor in recent weeks – and in the press conference following this morning’s rate decision the Governor noted that negative rates are still in the toolkit, but experiences in other countries have seen challenges to the financial system result from these policies.

Thus, while they’re not completely ruled out, the Governor’s view is that negative rates are “not sensible” at this stage. Clearly then, any further easing will take the form of increased purchases of government securities, and/or adjustments to other purchase programs to ensure that monetary stimulus is being transmitted fully to all corners of the financial system.

David Parkinson reports in the Globe:

With the Canadian government moving forward on a $52-billion emergency aid program, and with the Bank of Canada having already taken numerous steps in the past two weeks to address market liquidity, the bank decided the time was right to open its policy taps.

“A firefighter has never been criticized for using too much water,” Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said in a conference call with reporters on Friday.

However, Mr. Poloz made it clear that the bank has no intention of cutting its rate further, and rejected the idea of negative interest rates similar to those at the European Central Bank.

“At this stage, it would be not sensible to think of interest rates going lower than this. We consider this to be the effective lower bound,” Mr. Poloz said.

The Bank of Canada has announced:

The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to ¾ percent, effective Monday, March 16, 2020. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 percent and the deposit rate is ½ percent. This unscheduled rate decision is a proactive measure taken in light of the negative shocks to Canada’s economy arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent sharp drop in oil prices.

It is clear that the spread of the coronavirus is having serious consequences for Canadian families, and for Canada’s economy. In addition, lower prices for oil, even since our last scheduled rate decision on March 4, will weigh heavily on the economy, particularly in energy intensive regions.

The Bank will provide a full update of its outlook for the Canadian and global economies on April 15. As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target.

The Bank has also taken steps to ensure that the Canadian financial system has sufficient liquidity. These additional measures have been announced in separate notices on the Bank’s website. The Bank is closely monitoring economic and financial conditions, in coordination with other G7 central banks and fiscal authorities.

Changes to prime have not been announced yet, but watch this space!

Update, 2020-3-16 : The Big Banks have followed with their prime rates – at least, according to the two announcements made public as of initial publication of this post. Sadly, we do not know what has been done with the banks’ top secret internal primes or the spreads to Prime that the average customer might see on his renewal notice.

Details are:

• TD :
• BMO :
• CM :
• RY : Prime down 50bp to 2.95%
• BNS : Prime down 50bp to 2.95%
• NA :

Nichola Saminather remarks in the Globe:

During the Bank of Canada’s prior rate cuts, in January and July of 2015, the banks passed on only 30 basis points of the 50-basis-point cuts, but matched the central bank’s three quarter-percentage-point increases in 2018.

The Bank of Canada has announced:

The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to 1 ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 ½ percent and the deposit rate is 1 percent.

While Canada’s economy has been operating close to potential with inflation on target, the COVID-19 virus is a material negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks, and monetary and fiscal authorities are responding.

Before the outbreak, the global economy was showing signs of stabilizing, as the Bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, COVID-19 represents a significant health threat to people in a growing number of countries. In consequence, business activity in some regions has fallen sharply and supply chains have been disrupted. This has pulled down commodity prices and the Canadian dollar has depreciated. Global markets are reacting to the spread of the virus by repricing risk across a broad set of assets, making financial conditions less accommodative. It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity.

In Canada, GDP growth slowed to 0.3 percent during the fourth quarter of 2019, in line with the Bank’s forecast, although its composition was different. Consumption was stronger than expected, supported by healthy labour income growth. Residential investment continued to grow, albeit at a more moderate pace than earlier in the year. Meanwhile, both business investment and exports weakened.

It is becoming clear that the first quarter of 2020 will be weaker than the Bank had expected. The drop in Canada’s terms of trade, if sustained, will weigh on income growth. Meanwhile, business investment does not appear to be recovering as was expected following positive trade policy developments. In addition, rail line blockades, strikes by Ontario teachers, and winter storms in some regions are dampening economic activity in the first quarter.

CPI inflation in January was stronger than expected, due to temporary factors. Core measures of inflation all remain around 2 percent, consistent with an economy that has been operating close to potential.

In light of all these developments, the outlook is clearly weaker now than it was in January. As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target. While markets continue to function well, the Bank will continue to ensure that the Canadian financial system has sufficient liquidity.

The Bank continues to closely monitor economic and financial conditions, in coordination with other G7 central banks and fiscal authorities.

As usual there are no details of how the voting went or any capsule description of the rationale for such dissent, as is routinely provided by professionally managed central banks such as the US Federal Reserve. It’s a pity that members of the grandiosely named Governing Council are so insecure!

The Big Banks have followed with their prime rates – at least, according to the two announcements made public as of initial publication of this post. Sadly, we do not know what has been done with the banks’ top secret internal primes or the spreads to Prime that the average customer might see on his renewal notice.

Details are:

• TD : Prime 3.45% as of 2020-3-5
• BMO : Prime down 50bp to 3.45%
• CM : Prime down 50bp to 3.45%
• RY : Prime down 50bp to 3.45%
• BNS : Prime down 50bp to 3.45%
• NA : Prime down 50bp to 3.45%

Bill Curry and Matt Lundy report in the Globe:

Shortly after the decision, traders were pricing in a 75-per-cent chance the bank will cut rates again at its April 15 meeting.

The Bank of Canada has announced:

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

The global economic outlook remains solid. The US economy is especially robust and is expected to moderate over the projection horizon, as forecast in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The new US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will reduce trade policy uncertainty in North America, which has been an important curb on business confidence and investment. However, trade conflict, particularly between the United States and China, is weighing on global growth and commodity prices. Financial market volatility has resurfaced and some emerging markets are under stress but, overall, global financial conditions remain accommodative.

The Canadian economy continues to operate close to its potential and the composition of growth is more balanced. Despite some quarterly fluctuations, growth is expected to average about 2 per cent over the second half of 2018. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.1 per cent this year and next before slowing to 1.9 per cent in 2020.

The projections for business investment and exports have been revised up, reflecting the USMCA and the recently-approved liquid natural gas project in British Columbia. Still, investment and exports will be dampened by the recent decline in commodity prices, as well as ongoing competitiveness challenges and limited transportation capacity. The Bank will be monitoring the extent to which the USMCA leads to more confidence and business investment in Canada.

Household spending is expected to continue growing at a healthy pace, underpinned by solid employment income growth. Households are adjusting their spending as expected in response to higher interest rates and housing market policies. In this context, household credit growth continues to moderate and housing activity across Canada is stabilizing. As a result, household vulnerabilities are edging lower in a number of respects, although they remain elevated.

CPI inflation dropped to 2.2 per cent in September, in large part because the summer spike in airfares was reversed. Other temporary factors pushing up inflation, such as past increases in gasoline prices and minimum wages, should fade in early 2019. Inflation is then expected to remain close to the 2 per cent target through the end of 2020. The Bank’s core measures of inflation all remain around 2 per cent, consistent with an economy that is operating at capacity. Wage growth remains moderate, although it is projected to pick up in the coming quarters, consistent with the Bank’s latest Business Outlook Survey.

Given all of these factors, Governing Council agrees that the policy interest rate will need to rise to a neutral stance to achieve the inflation target. In determining the appropriate pace of rate increases, Governing Council will continue to take into account how the economy is adjusting to higher interest rates, given the elevated level of household debt. In addition, we will pay close attention to global trade policy developments and their implications for the inflation outlook.

As usual there are no details of how the voting went or any capsule description of the rationale for such dissent, as is routinely provided by professionally managed central banks such as the US Federal Reserve. It’s a pity that members of the grandiosely named Governing Council are so insecure!

The Big Banks hiked prime. Sadly, we do not know what has been done with the banks’ top secret internal primes or the spreads to Prime that the average customer might see on his renewal notice.

Details are:

• TD : Prime up 25bp to 3.95%
• BMO : Prime up 25bp to 3.95%
• CM : Prime up 25bp to 3.95%
• RY : Prime up 25bp to 3.95%
• BNS : Prime up 25bp to 3.95%
• NA : Prime up 25bp to 3.95%

The Bank of Canada has announced:

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1 ½ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 ¾ per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ¼ per cent.

The Bank expects the global economy to grow by about 3 ¾ per cent in 2018 and 3 ½ per cent in 2019, in line with the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The US economy is proving stronger than expected, reinforcing market expectations of higher policy rates and pushing up the US dollar. This is contributing to financial stresses in some emerging market economies. Meanwhile, oil prices have risen. Yet, the Canadian dollar is lower, reflecting broad-based US dollar strength and concerns about trade actions. The possibility of more trade protectionism is the most important threat to global prospects.

Canada’s economy continues to operate close to its capacity and the composition of growth is shifting. Temporary factors are causing volatility in quarterly growth rates: the Bank projects a pick-up to 2.8 per cent in the second quarter and a moderation to 1.5 per cent in the third. Household spending is being dampened by higher interest rates and tighter mortgage lending guidelines. Recent data suggest housing markets are beginning to stabilize following a weak start to 2018. Meanwhile, exports are being buoyed by strong global demand and higher commodity prices. Business investment is growing in response to solid demand growth and capacity pressures, although trade tensions are weighing on investment in some sectors. Overall, the Bank still expects average growth of close to 2 per cent over 2018-2020.

CPI and the Bank’s core measures of inflation remain near 2 per cent, consistent with an economy operating close to capacity. CPI inflation is expected to edge up further to about 2.5 per cent before settling back to 2 per cent by the second half of 2019. The Bank estimates that underlying wage growth is running at about 2.3 per cent, slower than would be expected in a labour market with no slack.

As in April, the projection incorporates an estimate of the impact of trade uncertainty on Canadian investment and exports. This effect is now judged to be larger, given mounting trade tensions.

The July projection also incorporates the estimated impact of tariffs on steel and aluminum recently imposed by the United States, as well as the countermeasures enacted by Canada. Although there will be difficult adjustments for some industries and their workers, the effect of these measures on Canadian growth and inflation is expected to be modest.

Governing Council expects that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near target and will continue to take a gradual approach, guided by incoming data. In particular, the Bank is monitoring the economy’s adjustment to higher interest rates and the evolution of capacity and wage pressures, as well as the response of companies and consumers to trade actions.

As usual there are no details of how the voting went or any capsule description of the rationale for such dissent, as is routinely provided by professionally managed central banks such as the US Federal Reserve. It’s a pity that members of the grandiosely named Governing Council are so insecure!

Market reaction was muted:

The Canadian dollar weakened to a more than one-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as broad-based gains for the greenback offset an interest rate hike and the prospect of further tightening by the Bank of Canada.

The U.S. dollar rose as the market put aside trade tension fears and focused on an expectation-beating inflation report, which increased prospects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates two more times this year.

“This U.S. dollar move offsets and even more so the somewhat hawkish BoC hike,” said Greg Anderson, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York.

The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50 per cent, the fourth hike since last summer.
…
Money markets see a nearly 70 per cent chance of further tightening by December.

The Big Banks hiked prime. Sadly, we do not know what has been done with the banks’ top secret internal primes or the spreads to Prime that the average customer might see on his renewal notice.

Details are:

• TD : Prime up 25bp to 3.70%
• BMO : Prime up 25bp to 3.70%
• CM : Prime up 25bp to 3.70%
• RY : Prime up 25bp to 3.70%
• BNS : Prime up 25bp to 3.70%
• NA : Prime up 25bp to 3.70%

The Bank of Canada has announced:

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 per cent. Recent data have been strong, inflation is close to target, and the economy is operating roughly at capacity. However, uncertainty surrounding the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is clouding the economic outlook.

The global economy continues to strengthen, with growth expected to average 3 1/2 per cent over the projection horizon. Growth in advanced economies is projected to be stronger than in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In particular, there are signs of increasing momentum in the US economy, which will be boosted further by recent tax changes. Global commodity prices are higher, although the benefits to Canada are being diluted by wider spreads between benchmark world and Canadian oil prices.

In Canada, real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019, following an estimated 3.0 per cent in 2017. Growth is expected to remain above potential through the first quarter of 2018 and then slow to a rate close to potential for the rest of the projection horizon.

Consumption and residential investment have been stronger than anticipated, reflecting strong employment growth. Business investment has been increasing at a solid pace, and investment intentions remain positive. Exports have been weaker than expected although, apart from cross-border shifts in automotive production, there have been positive signs in most other categories.

Looking forward, consumption and residential investment are expected to contribute less to growth, given higher interest rates and new mortgage guidelines, while business investment and exports are expected to contribute more. The Bank’s outlook takes into account a small benefit to Canada’s economy from stronger US demand arising from recent tax changes. However, as uncertainty about the future of NAFTA is weighing increasingly on the outlook, the Bank has incorporated into its projection additional negative judgement on business investment and trade.

The Bank continues to monitor the extent to which strong demand is boosting potential, creating room for more non-inflationary expansion. In this respect, capital investment, firm creation, labour force participation, and hours worked are all showing promising signs. Recent data show that labour market slack is being absorbed more quickly than anticipated. Wages have picked up but are rising by less than would be typical in the absence of labour market slack.

In this context, inflation is close to 2 per cent and core measures of inflation have edged up, consistent with diminishing slack in the economy. The Bank expects CPI inflation to fluctuate in the months ahead as various temporary factors (including gasoline and electricity prices) unwind. Looking through these temporary factors, inflation is expected to remain close to 2 per cent over the projection horizon.

While the economic outlook is expected to warrant higher interest rates over time, some continued monetary policy accommodation will likely be needed to keep the economy operating close to potential and inflation on target. Governing Council will remain cautious in considering future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data in assessing the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity, and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation.

As usual there are no details of how the voting went or any capsule description of the rationale for such dissent, as is routinely provided by professionally managed central banks such as the US Federal Reserve. It’s a pity that members of the grandiosely named Governing Council are so insecure!

The Big Banks hiked prime. Sadly, we do not know what has been done with the banks’ top secret internal primes or the spreads to Prime that the average customer might see on his renewal notice.

Details are:

• TD : Prime up 25bp to 3.45%
• BMO : Prime up 25bp to 3.45%
• CM : Prime up 25bp to 3.45%
• RY : Prime up 25bp to 3.45%
• BNS : Prime up 25bp to 3.45% (not on their website yet; I guess there must have been unexpectedly high volume)
• NA : Prime up 25bp to 3.45% (more high volume)

The Bank of Canada has announced:

The Bank of Canada is raising its target for the overnight rate to 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.

Recent economic data have been stronger than expected, supporting the Bank’s view that growth in Canada is becoming more broadly-based and self-sustaining. Consumer spending remains robust, underpinned by continued solid employment and income growth. There has also been more widespread strength in business investment and in exports. Meanwhile, the housing sector appears to be cooling in some markets in response to recent changes in tax and housing finance policies. The Bank continues to expect a moderation in the pace of economic growth in the second half of 2017, for the reasons described in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), but the level of GDP is now higher than the Bank had expected.

The global economic expansion is becoming more synchronous, as anticipated in July, with stronger-than-expected indicators of growth, including higher industrial commodity prices. However, significant geopolitical risks and uncertainties around international trade and fiscal policies remain, leading to a weaker US dollar against many major currencies. In this context, the Canadian dollar has appreciated, also reflecting the relative strength of Canada’s economy.

While inflation remains below the 2 per cent target, it has evolved largely as expected in July. There has been a slight increase in both total CPI and the Bank’s core measures of inflation, consistent with the dissipating negative impact of temporary price shocks and the absorption of economic slack. Nonetheless, there remains some excess capacity in Canada’s labour market, and wage and price pressures are still more subdued than historical relationships would suggest, as observed in some other advanced economies.

Given the stronger-than-expected economic performance, Governing Council judges that today’s removal of some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus in place is warranted. Future monetary policy decisions are not predetermined and will be guided by incoming economic data and financial market developments as they inform the outlook for inflation. Particular focus will be given to the evolution of the economy’s potential, and to labour market conditions. Furthermore, given elevated household indebtedness, close attention will be paid to the sensitivity of the economy to higher interest rates.

As usual there are no details of how the voting went or any capsule description of the rationale for such dissent, as is routinely provided by professionally managed central banks such as the US Federal Reserve. It’s a pity that members of the grandiosely named Governing Council are so insecure!

The Big Banks hiked prime. Sadly, we do not know what has been done with the banks’ top secret internal primes or the spreads to Prime that the average customer might see on his renewal notice.

Details are:

• TD : Prime up 25bp to 3.20%
• BMO : Prime up 25bp to 3.20%
• CM : Prime up 25bp to 3.20%
• RY : Prime up 25bp to 3.20%
• BNS : Prime up 25bp to 3.20%
• NA : Prime up 25bp to 3.20%

The Bank of Canada has announced:

The Bank of Canada is raising its target for the overnight rate to 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent. Recent data have bolstered the Bank’s confidence in its outlook for above-potential growth and the absorption of excess capacity in the economy. The Bank acknowledges recent softness in inflation but judges this to be temporary. Recognizing the lag between monetary policy actions and future inflation, Governing Council considers it appropriate to raise its overnight rate target at this time.
…
The Bank estimates real GDP growth will moderate further over the projection horizon, from 2.8 per cent in 2017 to 2.0 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019. The output gap is now projected to close around the end of 2017, earlier than the Bank anticipated in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

CPI inflation has eased in recent months and the Bank’s three measures of core inflation all remain below 2 per cent. The factors behind soft inflation appear to be mostly temporary, including heightened food price competition, electricity rebates in Ontario, and changes in automobile pricing. As the effects of these relative price movements fade and excess capacity is absorbed, the Bank expects inflation to return to close to 2 per cent by the middle of 2018. The Bank will continue to analyze short-term inflation fluctuations to determine the extent to which it remains appropriate to look through them.

Governing Council judges that the current outlook warrants today’s withdrawal of some of the monetary policy stimulus in the economy. Future adjustments to the target for the overnight rate will be guided by incoming data as they inform the Bank’s inflation outlook, keeping in mind continued uncertainty and financial system vulnerabilities.

As usual there are no details of how the voting went or any capsule description of the rationale for such dissent, as is routinely provided by professionally managed central banks such as the US Federal Reserve. It’s a pity that members of the grandiosely named Governing Council are so insecure!

As noted by Tim Shufelt and James Bradshaw in the Globe, the corresponding cut in 2015 resulted in a Prime decrease of only 15bp; this was reported on PrefBlog. Sadly, we do not know what has been done with the banks’ top secret internal primes or the spreads to Prime that the average customer might see on his renewal notice.

Details are:

• TD : Prime up 25bp to 2.95%
• BMO : Prime up 25bp to 2.95%
• CM : Prime up 25bp to 2.95%
• RY : Prime up 25bp to 2.95%
• BNS : Prime up 25bp to 2.95%
• NA : Prime up 25bp to 2.95%

The Bank of Canada has announced:

that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Total CPI inflation in Canada has been around 1 per cent in recent months, reflecting year-over-year price declines for consumer energy products. Core inflation has been close to 2 per cent, with disinflationary pressures from economic slack being offset by transitory effects of the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar and some sector-specific factors. Setting aside these transitory effects, the Bank judges that the underlying trend in inflation is about 1.5 to 1.7 per cent.
…
The Bank’s estimate of growth in Canada in 2015 has been marked down considerably from its April projection. The downward revision reflects further downgrades of business investment plans in the energy sector, as well as weaker-than-expected exports of non-energy commodities and non-commodities. Real GDP is now projected to have contracted modestly in the first half of the year, resulting in higher excess capacity and additional downward pressure on inflation.
…
The Bank now projects Canada’s real GDP will grow by just over 1 per cent in 2015 and about 2 1/2 per cent in 2016 and 2017. With this revised growth profile, the output gap is significantly larger than was expected in April, and closes somewhat later. The Bank anticipates that the economy will return to full capacity and inflation to 2 per cent on a sustained basis in the first half of 2017.

The lower outlook for Canadian growth has increased the downside risks to inflation. While vulnerabilities associated with household imbalances remain elevated and could edge higher, Canada’s economy is undergoing a significant and complex adjustment. Additional monetary stimulus is required at this time to help return the economy to full capacity and inflation sustainably to target.

(Updated)
And the banks’ reaction is:

• BMO: Prime down 15bp to 2.70%
• BNS: No announcement Prime down 15bp to 2.70%
• CM: No announcement Prime down 15bp to 2.70%
• NA: No announcement (July 16) Prime down 15bp to 2.70%
• RBC: Prime down 15bp to 2.70%
• TD: Prime down 10bp to 2.75%; Prime down another 5bp to 2.70%

Following the Bank of Canada’s reduction of the overnight rate from 1.00% to 0.75%, discussed on January 21, there has now – at last – been a move by the banks to cut prime:

Canada’s biggest banks have started passing on some – but not all – of the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut, lowering the interest charged to borrowers with loans and mortgages tied to the prime rate.

Royal Bank was the first to cut its prime rate when it announced it would go down to 2.85 per cent from three per cent, effective Wednesday.

The move was quickly matched by the Bank of Montreal, TD Bank and CIBC.
…
However, the big banks had been slow to match the cut with a reduction in their prime rates.

Spin Mortgage co-founder Steve Pipkey says the prime lending rate offered by Canadian banks usually moves in lockstep with the central bank’s overnight lending rate and it’s unusual for banks to only partially pass on the savings to consumers.

The most recent exception was in December 2008, when the central bank cut its key interest rate by 75 basis points. The banks responded at the time with a 50 basis point reduction to their prime rates.

• RBC cut 15bp to 0.85%
• BMO cut 15bp to 2.85%
• TD cut 15bp to 2.85%
• CIBC cut 15bp to 2.85%
• Scotia cut 15bp to 2.85%
• National cut 15bp to 2.85%

Doug Alexander of Bloomberg comments:

There have been exceptions to the general rule of banks following the Bank of Canada. In December 2008, the Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate 75 basis points to 1.5 percent while the six large lenders cut their prime 50 basis points to 3.5 percent, creating a 2 percentage point margin between the two rates.

If today’s gap of 2.1 percentage point persists it would be the highest on a consistent basis since the Bank of Canada started shifting to the overnight rate as its target in 1994, according to Bloomberg data.