New Issue: MFC FixedReset, 3.90%+216

February 18th, 2014

Manulife Financial Corporation has announced:

a Canadian public offering of Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class 1 Shares Series 15 (“Series 15 Preferred Shares”). Manulife will issue 8 million Series 15 Preferred Shares priced at $25 per share to raise gross proceeds of $200 million. The offering will be underwritten by a syndicate of investment dealers co-led by Scotia Capital Inc., CIBC World Markets and RBC Capital Markets and is anticipated to qualify as Tier 1 capital for Manulife. The expected closing date for the offering is February 25, 2014. Manulife intends to file a prospectus supplement to its July 18, 2012 base shelf prospectus in respect of this issue.

Holders of the Series 15 Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive a non-cumulative quarterly fixed dividend yielding 3.90 per cent annually, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Manulife, for the initial period ending June 19, 2019. Thereafter, the dividend rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 2.16 per cent.

Holders of Series 15 Preferred Shares will have the right, at their option, to convert their shares into Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class 1 Shares Series 16 (“Series 16 Preferred Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on June 19, 2019 and on June 19 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 16 Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive non-cumulative quarterly floating dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Manulife, at a rate equal to the three-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 2.16 per cent.

The net proceeds from the offering will be utilized for general corporate purposes, including future refinancing requirements.

“Our financing activities take into account future refinancing needs. We have over $3 billion in potential refinancing requirements over the next 12 to 20 months. We have taken the opportunity to issue preferred shares with favourable terms,” said Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Steve Roder.

As this is issued by an Insurance Holding Company which I expect to become subject to NVCC rules similar to banks as soon as OSFI gets off its duff (some hopes!) I have added a Deemed Maturity entry to the call schedule, dated 2025-1-31 at 25.00. I keep expecting the insurance issuers to make their issues convertible into common without shareholder consent, so they can assign this power to OSFI later, but it hasn’t happened yet.

This actually seems quite expensive. I come up with a theoretical price of 24.30 for it. It will be noted that MFC.PR.K, with a spread of +222, closed at 24.71-80 today.

MFCNewIssue
Click for Big

Update: If we assume that the MFC DeemedRetractibles are actually PerpetualDiscounts (they’re trading in much that manner) and we use the Current Yield of MFC.PR.C of 5.25% as its yield (MFC.PR.B’s Current Yield is higher), then the Break Even Rate Shock is a stunning 196bp.

ALB.PR.B: Partial Call For Redemption

February 18th, 2014

Scotia Managed Companies has announced:

Allbanc Split Corp. II (the “Company”) announced today that it has called 276,603 Preferred Shares for cash redemption on February 28, 2014 (in accordance with the Company’s Articles) representing approximately 23.118% of the outstanding Preferred Shares as a result of the special annual retraction of 553,206 Capital Shares by the holders thereof. The Preferred Shares shall be redeemed on a pro rata basis, so that each holder of Preferred Shares of record on February 26, 2014 will have approximately 23.118% of their Preferred Shares redeemed. The redemption price for the Preferred
Shares will be $21.80 per share.

Holders of Preferred Shares that are on record for dividends but have been called for redemption will be entitled to receive dividends thereon which have been declared but remain unpaid up to but not including February 28, 2014.

Payment of the amount due to holders of Preferred Shares will be made by the Company on February 28, 2014. From and after February 28, 2014 the holders of Preferred Shares that have been called for redemption will not be entitled to dividends or to exercise any right in respect of such shares except to receive the amount due on redemption.

Allbanc Split Corp. II is a mutual fund corporation created to hold a portfolio of publicly listed common shares of selected Canadian chartered banks. Capital Shares and Preferred Shares of Allbanc Split Corp. II are listed for trading on The Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols ALB and ALB.PR.B respectively.

ALB.PR.B was last mentioned on PrefBlog when there was a partial redemption in February 2013. ALB.PR.B is tracked by HIMIPref™, but relegated to the Scraps index on volume concerns.

February PrefLetter Released!

February 18th, 2014

The February, 2014, edition of PrefLetter has been released and is now available for purchase as the “Previous edition”. Those who subscribe for a full year receive the “Previous edition” as a bonus.

The regular appendices reporting on DeemedRetractibles and FixedResets are included.

PrefLetter may now be purchased by all Canadian residents.

Until further notice, the “Previous Edition” will refer to the February, 2014, issue, while the “Next Edition” will be the March, 2014, issue, scheduled to be prepared as of the close March 14 and eMailed to subscribers prior to market-opening on March 17.

PrefLetter is intended for long term investors seeking issues to buy-and-hold. At least one recommendation from each of the major preferred share sectors is included and discussed.

It appears that the server problems that have bedevilled the site recently have been solved … well, perhaps, not so much ‘solved’ as ‘worked around’. If you deserve a link but did not get a link, please let me know.

Note: My verbosity has grown by such leaps and bounds that it is no longer possible to deliver PrefLetter as an eMail attachment – it’s just too big for my software! Instead, I have sent passwords – click on the link in your eMail and your copy will download.

Note: The PrefLetter website has a Subscriber Download Feature. If you have not received your copy, try it!

Note: PrefLetter eMails sometimes runs afoul of spam filters. If you have not received your copy within fifteen minutes of a release notice such as this one, please double check your (company’s) spam filtering policy and your spam repository – there are some hints in the post Sympatico Spam Filters out of Control. If it’s not there, contact me and I’ll get you your copy … somehow!

Note: There have been scattered complaints regarding inability to open PrefLetter in Acrobat Reader, despite my practice of including myself on the subscription list and immediately checking the copy received. I have had the occasional difficulty reading US Government documents, which I was able to resolve by downloading and installing the latest version of Adobe Reader. Also, note that so far, all complaints have been from users of Yahoo Mail. Try saving it to disk first, before attempting to open it.

Note: There have been other scattered complaints that double-clicking on the links in the “PrefLetter Download” email results in a message that the password has already been used. I have been able to reproduce this problem in my own eMail software … the problem is double-clicking. What happens is the first click opens the link and the second click finds that the password has already been used and refuses to work properly. So the moral of the story is: Don’t be a dick! Single Click!

Note: Assiduous Reader DG informs me:

In case you have any other Apple users: you need to install a free App from the apple store called “FileApp”. It comes with it’s own tutorial and allows you to download and save a PDF file.

Febuary 14, 2014

February 14th, 2014

Nothing happened today.

It was a positive day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 7bp, FixedResets winning 10bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 6bp. The Performance Highlights table is a little longer than usual, but has no clear pattern. Volume was low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3703 % 2,411.0
FixedFloater 4.75 % 4.34 % 30,944 17.74 1 -0.1000 % 3,569.2
Floater 3.00 % 3.11 % 53,366 19.42 4 -0.3703 % 2,603.2
OpRet 4.61 % -0.46 % 68,359 0.13 3 0.0641 % 2,688.5
SplitShare 4.87 % 5.02 % 62,001 4.33 5 0.1289 % 3,011.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0641 % 2,458.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.67 % 1.29 % 93,895 0.08 12 0.0298 % 2,334.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.56 % 5.59 % 148,156 14.49 26 0.0663 % 2,387.1
FixedReset 4.90 % 3.76 % 210,538 6.43 82 0.0957 % 2,489.2
Deemed-Retractible 5.12 % 4.04 % 162,877 1.93 42 0.0614 % 2,424.1
FloatingReset 2.66 % 2.64 % 162,858 7.16 6 -0.2612 % 2,434.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-14
Maturity Price : 17.02
Evaluated at bid price : 17.02
Bid-YTW : 3.11 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.89
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-14
Maturity Price : 19.89
Evaluated at bid price : 19.89
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
PWF.PR.A Floater 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-14
Maturity Price : 19.07
Evaluated at bid price : 19.07
Bid-YTW : 2.75 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-14
Maturity Price : 20.91
Evaluated at bid price : 20.91
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 147,720 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-14
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 131,120 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-14
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 25.09
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 83,399 Nesbitt crossed blocks of 60,000 and 20,000 at 21.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.25
Bid-YTW : 6.57 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset 54,770 RBC crossed 50,000 at 23.74.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.77
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 30,664 Nesbitt crossed 25,000 at 21.05.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.06
Bid-YTW : 6.60 %
RY.PR.R FixedReset 27,857 Called for Redemption 2014-2-24 at $25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.98
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
There were 21 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater Quote: 19.98 – 20.46
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.3406

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.98
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %

MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 22.42 – 22.83
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.3110

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.42
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %

BNS.PR.B FloatingReset Quote: 24.59 – 24.84
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1637

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.59
Bid-YTW : 2.76 %

CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.55 – 21.82
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1921

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-14
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %

BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.35 – 20.68
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2575

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-14
Maturity Price : 20.35
Evaluated at bid price : 20.35
Bid-YTW : 6.12 %

SLF.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 25.54 – 25.72
Spot Rate : 0.1800
Average : 0.1080

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.54
Bid-YTW : 2.18 %

RY.PR.I / RY.PR.K & RY.PR.L Conversion Results Announced

February 14th, 2014

The Royal Bank of Canada has announced:

that 2,421,185 of its 16,000,000 Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset First Preferred Shares Series AJ (the “Series AJ shares”) will be converted on February 24, 2014, on a one-for-one basis, into Non-Cumulative Floating Rate First Preferred Shares Series AK (the “Series AK shares”) of Royal Bank of Canada.

Furthermore, during the conversion notice period which ran from January 24, 2014 to February 10, 2014, only 530,659 Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset First Preferred Shares, Series AL (the “Series AL shares”) were tendered for conversion into Non-Cumulative Floating Rate First Preferred Shares, Series AM (the “Series AM shares”). As per the conditions set out in the prospectus supplement dated October 27, 2008, since less than 1,000,000 Series AM shares would be outstanding after February 24, 2014, holders of Series AL shares who tendered their shares for conversion will not be entitled to convert their shares into Series AM shares. As a result, Series AM shares will not be issued at this time.

On February 24, 2014, Royal Bank of Canada will have 13,578,815 Series AJ, 2,421,185 Series AK and 12,000,000 Series AL shares issued and outstanding. The Series AJ and Series AL shares are currently listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols RY.PR.I and RY.PR.L respectively. Series AK shares will be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol RY.PR.K.

The Reset Rate for RY.PR.I (3.52%+193) and RY.PR.L (4.26%+267) were discussed on PrefBlog. These two issues are tracked by HIMIPref™ and are members of the FixedReset subindex. RY.PR.K will be added to the FloatingReset subindex once it starts trading.

It may be significant that the issue with the lower spread got converted. It may be significant; it may not be; it might just be that people think that 3.52% is pretty skinny and want something else, no matter what it might be. I’ll have to think about it.

February 13, 2014

February 13th, 2014

Changes in Fed policy can disproportionate effects:

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Fed officials will probably be careful about altering the pace of their reductions to bond buying because of a potentially significant impact on markets.

“If we move off our baseline, it’s going to have pretty big repercussions,” Bullard said today in an interview at Bloomberg’s headquarters in New York. “We’d be cautious in using that — it’s going to have to be a situation where you’re pretty sure things are moving off track.”

Bullard said the market’s reaction last June to a potential tapering, and the impact of the Fed’s surprise decision in September to maintain the pace of its asset purchases, illustrated that fluctuations in the amount of quantitative easing have “powerful” consequences.

In June, global equity markets lost $3 trillion in the five days after former Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he might reduce his $85 billion in monthly asset purchases that year and end them by mid-2014. In September, the Fed refrained from tapering, reversing a rise in bond yields and pushing back expectations for a tightening of monetary policy.

“In both of these cases, it showed it really matters a lot,” Bullard said. “Flow-based purchases have been really a powerful tool.”

Market movement was modest for Canadian preferred shares today, with PerpetualDiscounts off 2bp, FixedResets gaining 2bp and DeemedRetractibles up 3bp. The Performance Highlights table is notable for two winning Floating Rate issues. Volume was average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.1963 % 2,419.9
FixedFloater 4.75 % 4.33 % 29,742 17.75 1 -0.1498 % 3,572.8
Floater 2.99 % 3.07 % 54,008 19.52 4 1.1963 % 2,612.8
OpRet 4.61 % -0.61 % 70,954 0.13 3 -0.0384 % 2,686.8
SplitShare 4.88 % 5.09 % 63,135 4.34 5 -0.1448 % 3,007.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0384 % 2,456.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.67 % 1.23 % 94,948 0.08 12 0.0000 % 2,333.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.56 % 5.58 % 150,800 14.50 26 -0.0543 % 2,385.5
FixedReset 4.91 % 3.72 % 212,924 6.24 82 0.0248 % 2,486.8
Deemed-Retractible 5.12 % 4.12 % 163,399 1.93 42 0.0332 % 2,422.6
FloatingReset 2.65 % 2.59 % 164,270 4.60 6 -0.0469 % 2,441.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.N FixedReset -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 4.74 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-13
Maturity Price : 20.67
Evaluated at bid price : 20.67
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
TD.PR.Y FixedReset 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.03
Bid-YTW : 3.47 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-13
Maturity Price : 17.09
Evaluated at bid price : 17.09
Bid-YTW : 3.10 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 2.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-13
Maturity Price : 17.25
Evaluated at bid price : 17.25
Bid-YTW : 3.07 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.R FloatingReset 291,900 Issue Reset Spread of 165bp makes the dividend prospects to Deemed Maturity so dreary that a fast call has basically the same yield as the Deemed Maturity scenario. TD crossed 289,300 at 24.65.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-08-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.79
Bid-YTW : 2.59 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 183,230 Nesbitt crossed 155,200 at 22.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset 165,887 RBC crossed two blocks of 75,000 each, both at 23.74.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.72
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible 125,900 Nesbitt crossed 100,000 at 21.45.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.31
Bid-YTW : 6.51 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater 74,765 Nesbitt crossed 71,300 at 20.06.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-13
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 65,416 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-13
Maturity Price : 23.15
Evaluated at bid price : 25.02
Bid-YTW : 3.91 %
There were 33 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.91 – 21.31
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.3093

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-13
Maturity Price : 20.91
Evaluated at bid price : 20.91
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %

FTS.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 20.90 – 21.19
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2056

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-13
Maturity Price : 20.90
Evaluated at bid price : 20.90
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %

ENB.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 24.21 – 24.40
Spot Rate : 0.1900
Average : 0.1080

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-13
Maturity Price : 22.92
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 20.67 – 20.95
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1993

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-13
Maturity Price : 20.67
Evaluated at bid price : 20.67
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %

CGI.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 24.41 – 24.73
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2415

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.41
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %

ENB.PR.D FixedReset Quote: 23.82 – 24.07
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1786

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-13
Maturity Price : 22.77
Evaluated at bid price : 23.82
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %

BBD: S&P Downgrades to P-4(low)

February 13th, 2014

Standard & Poor’s has announced:

  • •Montreal-based Bombardier Inc. announced negative free operating cash flow of about US$1.0 billion for fiscal 2013 and, based on our forecast, we expect continued negative free cash flow in 2014.
  • •In addition, the company announced in January that entry into service for the CSeries will be delayed into the second half of 2015 and, as a result, Bombardier will incur incremental program costs.
  • •We have reassessed the company’s financial risk profile, and do not believe Bombardier will be able to improve its credit measures to levels that will support a ‘BB’ corporate credit rating through our outlook period to late 2015.
  • •As a result, we are lowering our ratings on Bombardier, including our long-term corporate credit rating to ‘BB-‘ from ‘BB’.
  • •The stable outlook reflects our belief that Bombardier’s credit metrics will remain in the “highly leveraged” category through 2015, combined with our expectation that the company has sufficient liquidity through this period to fund its negative free cash flow.


The stable outlook reflects our belief that Bombardier’s credit metrics will remain in the highly leveraged category through 2015 and, specifically, funds from operations (FFO) to debt will remain below 12% at year-end 2015. The outlook also incorporates our expectation that the company maintains forward progression on placing the CSeries into service in late 2015 and has sufficient liquidity through this period to achieve this.

We could lower the rating on Bombardier should the CSeries experience further delays or order levels do not allow for profitable production, resulting in a reassessment of the company’s business risk profile. In addition, should the company be unable to improve margins and operating performance at both the aerospace and transportation division to guidance levels and generate positive free cash flow post-2015, we could also reassess the company’s business risk profile leading to a downgrade.

An upgrade would be contingent on Bombardier being able to place the CSeries into service, effectively removing the execution and cost risks associated with the program combined with a recovery of its credit metrics, specifically FFO to debt of 12% or higher, and the company demonstrating an ability to generate sustained positive free cash flow.

This follows S&P’s ‘Outlook Negative’ in August 2013 and the downgrade to Pfd-4(low) by DBRS in November 2013.

Bombardier has three series of preferreds outstanding: BBD.PR.B (Ratchet Rate); BBD.PR.C (PerpetualDiscount) and BBD.PR.D (FixedFloater). All are tracked by HIMIPref™; all are assigned to the Scraps index on Credit concerns.

February 12, 2014

February 13th, 2014

DBRS commented on the Federal budget:

As anticipated at the time of DBRS’s last review, Canada’s debt burden appears to have reached an inflection point and reducing debt remains a long-term goal of the government. Gross market debt (the measure tracked by DBRS) is projected to fall by 3.1% to $647 billion by March 31, 2014, resulting in a debt-to-GDP ratio of roughly 35%, down from 37% a year earlier. For 2014-15, market debt is expected to remain relatively flat, pointing to a debt-to-GDP ratio of 34%. Total borrowing requirements are forecast at $232 billion in 2014-2015, comprised almost entirely of refinancing needs. The government plans to continue to reduce refinancing risk by replacing maturing treasury bills with longer-term bonds, which should lengthen the average term to maturity of the debt portfolio. In addition, the issuance of 50-year bonds is being contemplated, after having considered 40-year issuance in the previous budget.

… but there were also some cogent words from Konrad Yakabuski of the Globe:

Hence, Mr. Flaherty’s latest, and perhaps last, budget includes another $500-million for Ottawa’s so-called Automotive Innovation Fund, increasing the total to $1-billion. The funds are supposed to be doled out in “repayable contributions to automotive firms that are undertaking strategic large-scale research and development projects focused on new vehicle technologies.”

Don’t be fooled. About as much R&D goes on in Canada’s auto sector as in my kitchen. The AIF is a slush fund used to subsidize the wages of auto workers whose “quality,” according to a 2012 study by the Institute for Research on Public Policy, has “not proven to be an important factor in productivity growth in motor-vehicle assembly over the past 45 years.” Yet, Chrysler reportedly wants up to $700-million from Ottawa and Ontario to assemble a “new generation” of minivans in Windsor.

According to the IRPP study by economists Leslie Shiell of the University of Ottawa and Robin Somerville of the Centre for Spatial Economics, the rescues cost Canadian taxpayers more than $500,000 for every job saved.

At least there’s a little good news for granny:

Canadian banks are slashing the trading fees charged by their online investing platforms, a sudden about-face after years of ignoring intense competition from independent rivals with cheaper prices.

In the past month, Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank and Bank of Montreal each cut their discount brokerage prices. Now any of their clients, regardless of their portfolio size, can buy or sell a stock for $9.95 to $9.99 – a low fee historically reserved for clients with tens of thousands of dollars to invest.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 22bp, FixedResets gaining 6bp and DeemedRetractibles flat. Volatility was minimal. Several issues saw heavy volume, but overall it was a light trading day.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.61%, equivalent to 7.29% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 4.6%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 270bp, a slight (and perhaps spurious) narrowing from the 275bp reported February 5.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.8723 % 2,391.3
FixedFloater 4.74 % 4.33 % 27,587 17.76 1 -0.1993 % 3,578.1
Floater 3.03 % 3.13 % 53,373 19.37 4 0.8723 % 2,582.0
OpRet 4.61 % -3.11 % 71,673 0.13 3 0.1614 % 2,687.8
SplitShare 4.87 % 5.07 % 61,744 4.34 5 -0.0322 % 3,011.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1614 % 2,457.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.67 % 1.41 % 96,322 0.08 12 -0.0945 % 2,333.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.56 % 5.61 % 151,125 14.46 26 -0.2229 % 2,386.8
FixedReset 4.91 % 3.72 % 212,474 6.24 82 0.0598 % 2,486.2
Deemed-Retractible 5.12 % 4.06 % 162,985 1.94 42 0.0029 % 2,421.8
FloatingReset 2.65 % 2.61 % 166,636 7.12 6 -0.0335 % 2,442.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-12
Maturity Price : 22.67
Evaluated at bid price : 22.91
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
SLF.PR.F FixedReset 300,600 TD crossed 300,000 at 25.51.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : 2.46 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 222,567 Desjardins crossed 210,700 at 20.90, I think – there’s a cancellation listed, but no replacement.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-12
Maturity Price : 20.93
Evaluated at bid price : 20.93
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 220,100 Desjardins crossed 216,500 at 23.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-12
Maturity Price : 22.59
Evaluated at bid price : 22.87
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 194,890 Desjardins crossed 188,900 at 22.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-12
Maturity Price : 21.85
Evaluated at bid price : 22.17
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
BAM.PR.P FixedReset 112,210 Scotia crossed 54,800 at 25.88. TD crossed 50,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.80
Bid-YTW : 3.20 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 109,246 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-12
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 24.97
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %
PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium 103,638 Nesbitt crossed two blocks of 50,000 each, both at 25.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.13
Bid-YTW : 1.52 %
GWO.PR.F Deemed-Retractible 102,004 TD crossed 94,500 at 25.55.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.41
Bid-YTW : -5.46 %
There were 22 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.91 – 23.31
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.3021

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-12
Maturity Price : 22.67
Evaluated at bid price : 22.91
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 22.99 – 23.27
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1987

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-12
Maturity Price : 22.66
Evaluated at bid price : 22.99
Bid-YTW : 3.60 %

FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.87 – 23.14
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1980

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-12
Maturity Price : 22.59
Evaluated at bid price : 22.87
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %

HSB.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.25 – 25.53
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.2083

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 4.06 %

FTS.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 24.40 – 24.65
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1797

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-12
Maturity Price : 22.94
Evaluated at bid price : 24.40
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %

TRP.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 22.12 – 22.33
Spot Rate : 0.2100
Average : 0.1418

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-02-12
Maturity Price : 21.68
Evaluated at bid price : 22.12
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %

Calculation of RatchetRate Dividend Yield

February 12th, 2014

Assiduous Reader DT writes in and says:

I have been following your blog for quite some time but I have a question that I can not find a clear answer to….
Can you explain how an issuer calculates the ‘Ratchet Rate’ of their preferred shares on a given reset date?

The prospectus for BCE.PR.S / BCE.PR.T provides an archetypal example:

The annual floating dividend rate for the first month will be equal to 80% of Prime. The dividend rate will float in relation to changes in Prime and will be adjusted upwards or downwards on a monthly basis by an adjustment factor whenever the Calculated Trading Price of the Series S Preferred Shares is $24.875 or less or $25.125 or more respectively.

The maximum monthly adjustment for changes in the Calculated Trading Price will be ±4.00% of Prime. The annual floating dividend rate applicable for a month will in no event be less than 50% of Prime or greater than Prime.

The Adjustment Factor for a month will be based on the Calculated Trading Price of the Series S Preferred Shares for the preceding month determined in accordance with the following table:

If the Calculated Trading Price for the Preceding Month is The Adjustment Factor as a
Percentage of Prime shall be
$25.50 or more -4.00%
$25.375 and less than $25.50 -3.00%
$25.25 and less than $25.375 -2.00%
$25.125 and less than $25.25 -1.00%
Greater than $24.875 and less than $25.125 nil
Greater than $24.75 to $24.875 1.00%
Greater than $24.625 to $24.75 2.00%
Greater than $24.50 to $24.625 3.00%
$24.50 or less 4.00%

The maximum Adjustment Factor for any month will be ±4.00% of Prime.

This mechanism is very briefly summarized in my article Preferred Pairs.

All RatchetRate issues will be paired with a FixedFloater, but both elements will not necessarily be trading at the same time.

The Pairs Equivalency Calculator takes advantage of the known time before conversion opportunity and the fact that all these are now paying 100% of prime (and are more likely than not to continue at this rate until this time) to calculate an implied average prime rate that makes the two series equivalent. This relative value analysis can be useful; if you are enamoured of this type of share, it may turn out that your best bet is to buy the FixedFloater with the intent of converting.

The pairs currently are:

FixedFloater RatchetRate
BAM.PR.G BAM.PR.E
BBD.PR.D BBD.PR.B
BCE.PR.T BCE.PR.S
BCE.PR.Z BCE.PR.Y
BCE.PR.A BCE.PR.B
BCE.PR.C BCE.PR.D
BCE.PR.F BCE.PR.E
BCE.PR.G BCE.PR.H
BCE.PR.R Not trading
BCE.PR.I Not trading

It is the adjustment to the RatchetRate that makes these unsuitable for banks – in order to qualify at Tier 1 Capital, preferred shares must not have any provisions that provide compensation for loss of credit quality.

For those seeking to compare RatchetRates with FloatingResets, note that Prime is usually 3-Month Bills + 200bp. For this reason, we can reasonably expect that the RatchetRates currently extant will (a) trade below $25 forever and (b) remain outstanding forever and (c) that we could be wrong about (a) and (b), so don’t mortgage the house.

Are “CoCos” a good fit for your clients?

February 11th, 2014

Andrew Allentuck was kind enough to quote me in his latest piece for Investment Executive, Are “CoCos” a good fit for your clients?:

“They can call these bonds Tier 1 capital, which is equivalent to common equity,” says James Hymas, president of Hymas Investment Management Inc. in Toronto, “but [the bonds] get a better or more efficient treatment of the cost on income statements. A lot of portfolio managers will buy them because they have a mandate to invest in bonds, and these hybrids meet the definition of a bond and have terrific interest. Clients may be naive enough to accept these hybrids for their portfolios. But what clients forget is that in exchange for a yield pickup of a few hundred basis points over other corporate debt, a loss could approach 100%.”

In the search for yield, hybrids are the latest twist in the old idea of compromising the promise of a traditional bond to pay interest and principal on time, Hymas adds: “Many of these structures will go into bond indices. Index funds would have to buy them and some fund managers would then have to take them on, too.

“I would not be averse to buying them,” he continues. “But I would do it for a bond portfolio, which the client fully understands and accepts.”