PrefBlog

Christine Harper of Bloomberg brings forward an interesting view on the effect of Basel III:

Investors such as Joshua Siegel, founder and managing principal at New York-based StoneCastle Partners LLC, see bigger changes at the other end of the spectrum. Small banks will seek mergers because their management teams are aging and new regulations are too costly to bear, he says.

“If you need one major overriding theme of the industry in the next three, five, seven, 10 years: massive consolidation, thousands of banks,” says Siegel, whose firm managed $5.1 billion as of the end of last year and invests in small banks. In the U.S., “I do see probably anywhere from 2,000 to 4,000 banks being swallowed up, and what you’ll see then is a more- concentrated system.”

JPMorgan’s Dimon, a critic of regulations he views as unnecessary or excessive, has recently touted the benefits. He told Citigroup analysts this month that new rules will help banks such as JPMorgan, the largest in the U.S., win market share from smaller competitors, the analysts wrote in a report.

In Dimon’s view, they wrote, the changes will “make it more expensive and tend to make it tougher for smaller players to enter the market, effectively widening JPM’s ‘moat.’”

The new rules, it turns out, may be doing more to shield banks from competition than to make them safer.

US state pension funds are getting desperate; some of them may start blowing their brains out on hedge funds:

South Carolina’s $27 billion pension dove into private equity and hedge funds in 2008, hoping to increase returns that were at the bottom tenth of public- employee retirement funds.

Five years and $1.2 billion in fees later, its annualized gain of 1.3 percent still trails the median among public pension-systems, according to data compiled by Wilshire Associates Inc. In neighboring Georgia, the $53.5 billion teachers’ pension buys only stocks and bonds. It paid money managers $119.5 million over the same period and its annualized returns of 2.95 percent were in the top quartile.

U.S. public pensions, confronting an $800 billion funding gap for promises to retirees and chasing 8 percent annual returns amid slow growth and historically low interest rates, have turned to riskier investments in private equity, hedge funds and real estate.
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No state has rushed into the loosely regulated investment pools as South Carolina has. As of June 30, the pension had invested 56 percent of its portfolio with firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Bridgewater Associates LP and Apollo Global Management LLC. (APO)

DBRS confirmed HSE.PR.A at Pfd-2(low) Stable:

Husky’s financial profile remained stable in 2012. Husky maintains debt-to-capital and debt-to-cash flow ratios below its targets of 25% and 1.5 times (x), respectively. Integrated operations provided a partial natural hedge against pricing volatility in North American upstream operations. A modest free cash flow deficit in 2012 was largely a result of increased capex spending. Similar free cash flow deficits are anticipated until 2014, when cash flow contributions from growth pillars – namely, the oil sands, Atlantic Canada and Asia-Pacific – commence. DBRS believes the Company’s current liquidity is sufficient to fund cash flow shortfalls over the near term with minimal impact on credit metrics.

Key challenges facing the Company include: (1) managing its high-cost, long-lead-time capital projects, as significant spending is anticipated to fund growth plans (Husky targets 5% to 8% production growth per year through 2017). Incremental cash flow from these projects is not expected in the near term, which could result in pressure on the balance sheet, particularly during periods of significant, prolonged pricing declines. (2) Production is highly weighted toward North American operations (97% at 2012), which subjects Husky to both volatile North American crude oil prices and continued depressed North American natural gas prices (31% of production in 2012). (3) Credit metrics at the high end of Husky’s target ranges are aggressive for the rating category. Should credit metrics deteriorate above 30% debt-to-capital and/or 2.0x debt-to-cash flow, either due to unsuccessful growth in production despite higher capital spending, or prolonged pricing declines, DBRS would consider taking negative rating action.

It was another mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums off 2bp, FixedResets down 9bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 5bp. Volatility was average. Volume was high.

And that’s a wrap for another month!

To my surprise, an adult was quoted regarding the role of underwriters in capital markets:

In both cases, banks that profited by bringing the securities to market were later accused of misrepresenting the risks and contributing to losses. Their defense was that they were serving clients who wanted to buy the securities, as well as helping finance entrepreneurs and homeowners. They said they attracted undue criticism for essentially playing the role of middlemen and that they shouldn’t be held responsible for investors’ decisions to buy the securities.

“They’re intermediaries, and they’re not supposed to make up their minds for their customers as to what’s good for them, they’re supposed to supply them with what they want,” said Roy Smith, a finance professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and a former Goldman Sachs partner.

Smith said bond prospectuses “point out repeatedly that just because the market price goes down, that’s not something we can be responsible for.”

However, I have no doubt but that a few lawyers and boxtickers at the SEC are excitedly preparing indictments against the salesmen who sell their clients things “they know are about to fall”.

Canadian Western Bank has announced an issuer bid for CWB.PR.A:

Canadian Western Bank (the “Bank”) today announced the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada (OSFI) have approved the Bank’s normal course issuer bid (NCIB) to purchase, for cancelation, up to 826,120 Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series 3 (“preferred shares”). The number of preferred shares to be purchased under the NCIB represents approximately 10% of the 8,390,000 preferred shares issued and outstanding as at February 27, 2013.

Purchases under the NCIB may begin on March 1, 2013 and will end no later than February 28, 2014. The price paid for any preferred shares purchased will be the market price of such shares on the TSX at the time of acquisition. Purchases will be effected through the facilities of the TSX and all preferred shares purchased pursuant to the NCIB will be canceled. Apart from block purchase exceptions, the maximum number of preferred shares that may purchased per trading day is 1,538, an amount equal to 25% of the average daily trading volume of the preferred shares on the TSX for the six month period ended January 31, 2013.

Management believes the purchase of preferred shares below a certain price threshold represents an appropriate use of available funds and is also consistent with strategies to enhance shareholder value while ensuring the Bank maintains its solid regulatory capital position.

Since CWB has no history of following up on issuer bids, this announcement doesn’t get its own post – it has to slum it in the daily commentary. I don’t see any reason why they might follow this up with actual cash dollars anyway – at today’s closing bid of 26.65, the issue yields only 1.98% until the 2014-4-30 call date.

ALB.PR.B was confirmed at Pfd-2(low) by DBRS:

Current downside protection available to holders of the Class B Preferred Shares is 56.3% as of February 14, 2013.

The Pfd-2 (low) rating of the Class B Preferred Shares is based primarily on the downside protection and dividend coverage available, as well as on the strong credit quality and consistency of dividend distributions of the Portfolio holdings.

The main constraints to the rating are the following:

(1) The downside protection provided to holders of the Class B Preferred Shares is dependent on the value of the shares in the Portfolio.

(2) Volatility of price and changes in the dividend policies of the Canadian banks may result in significant reductions in downside protection from time to time.

(3) The entire Portfolio is concentrated in the Canadian financial services industry.

The Class B Preferred Shares will be redeemed by the Company on February 28, 2016.

It was another mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums gaining 5bp, FixedResets off 5bp and DeemedRetractibles up 15bp. Volatility was low. Volume was well above average.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 4.91%, equivalent to about 6.38% interest at the standard conversion rate of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 4.3%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 210bp, a significant widening from the 200bp reported February 20.

It’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good:

U.S. banks are looking to capitalize on a dearth of financing for Europe’s commercial property market that’s driven lending margins to five times the level prior to the 2008 crisis.

Citigroup Inc. (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) are following insurers and distressed investors allocating capital to the region as local banks, which overextended during the last boom, are forced to contract amid new regulations. Europe faces an $82 billion shortfall between the amount of real-estate debt maturing through this year and the funding available to replace it, according to real-estate broker DTZ.

The scarcity of capital means lenders can charge as much as 3.75 percentage points over benchmarks for the safest pieces of commercial mortgage debt, about five times the spread in 2007, according to Alvarez & Marsal, an adviser on real estate transactions. Those margins will enable banks to revive the market for commercial mortgage-backed bonds, which parcel loans and slice them into securities of varying risk, after it largely shut in 2008.

Meanwhile, the Fed may find selling is harder than buying:

MSCI applied scenarios devised by the Fed itself for stress-testing the nation’s 19 largest banks.

MSCI sees the market value of Fed holdings shrinking by $547 billion over three years under an adverse scenario that includes an economic contraction and rising inflation. MSCI puts the Fed’s mark-to-market loss at less than half that, or $216 billion, if the economy performs in line with consensus forecasts of gradually rising growth, inflation and interest rates.

The potential losses are unprecedented in the Fed’s 100- year history. Bernanke began describing in detail the risk of lower payments to taxpayers for the first time today in his monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee saying that “remittances to the Treasury could be quite low for a time” if interest rates “were to rise quickly.” Bernanke didn’t describe the overall interest-rate risk to the portfolio or potential mark-to-market losses. He said the Fed is “confident” it has tools to tighten monetary policy.

But at least the money is going into something other than mortgages:

Money is pouring into leveraged loan funds at an incredible pace. It’s a natural home for investors who are leery of buying bonds at this point in the cycle, when rates could be on the rise, but who still want credit exposure. Leveraged loans are usually floating rate. And that means protection from higher interest rates, unlike bonds, which will fall in price as rates rise.
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Among the biggest users of the leveraged loan market are private equity firms who use the financing for buyouts. The leveraged loan boom will help refinance balance sheets of portfolio companies, and fuel more new takeovers.

And the shadow trading sector is getting bigger:

Earlier today, JPMorgan Chase & Co. announced that it will reduce headcount in its consumer banking arm by 3,000 to 4,000 people this year.

Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. have also unveiled plans in recent months to shed staff. As early as this week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will begin its annual exercise to cull 5 per cent of its employees, with deeper cuts possible in equity trading, Reuters reported.
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But [Thomas DiNapoli, the comptroller of New York State] also noted that the industry employed 1,000 fewer people at the end of 2012 than it did a year earlier, adding that he believes “the industry will continue to restructure and downsize until a new business paradigm is established.”

If that doesn’t sound like a lot of fun, that’s probably an accurate assessment. Some traders have already decamped for hedge funds, where they don’t have to contend with the same regulatory constraints or reduced appetite for risk.

Best wishes for Graham Beck, who started working at Burns Fry in 1985, moved to the the preferred share desk in 1991 and today announced his imminent retirement from BMO Nesbitt Burns. As he says: a lot has happened in 22 years; and I’ll add that that extends to the names of his employer as well as the preferred share market!

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums gaining 4bp, FixedResets off 1bp and DeemedRetractibles up 15bp. Volatility was minimal. Volume was extremely high.