PrefBlog

Europe is considering another step towards effective nationalization of the banking system:

Banks in states roiled by Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may be partly shielded from extra costs when they seek government guarantees, according to two people familiar with the situation.

The European Commission will publish rules on state aid for lenders that may dilute the effect of turmoil in the euro area on the fees that banks have to pay for guarantees on their loans and bonds, said the people who couldn’t be identified because the discussions aren’t public. Under the plans, the formula for setting the fees would reduce the impact of soaring debt- insurance costs for the country giving the backstops, one of the people said.

“Renewed tensions” in financial markets are forcing European Union regulators to extend into 2012 special state aid rules for banks that have allowed governments to inject billions of euros into the industry, said EU Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia this month. He said he was planning to “clarify and update the rules on pricing and other conditions.”

I’m not saying that’s necessarily the wrong response – I’m just saying that if it is the right response then banks are just another arm of government.

BRF.PR.A was confirmed at Pfd-3(high) by DBRS:

DBRS has today assigned an Issuer Rating of BBB (high) with a Stable trend to Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners L.P. (BREP) and a rating of BBB (high) with a Stable trend to the Senior Unsecured Debentures and Notes (the Notes) of BRP Finance ULC (BRPF). DBRS has also confirmed the Pfd-3 (high) rating with a Stable trend of Class A Preference Shares, Series 1 (the Prefs) of Brookfield Renewable Power Preferred Equity Inc. (BRPP). The ratings of the Notes of BRPF and the Prefs of BRPP are based on guarantees of the parent company, BREP, and its operating subsidiaries. In addition, the rating on the Senior Unsecured Debentures and Notes of Brookfield Renewable Power Inc. (BRPI) and the Issuer Rating and Income Fund rating of Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (the Fund) have been discontinued. These actions resolve the Under Review with Developing Implications assigned to the ratings of BRPI and the Fund on September 13, 2011.

These rating actions follow the closing of the anticipated business combination (the Transaction) today in which in BREP acquired all of the units of the Fund and the equity interests in all of BRPI’s U.S., Brazilian and Canadian power assets not already owned by the Fund. The Transaction and the expected rating outcomes were described in more detail in the DBRS press release dated September 13, 2011.

It was a mixed, uneventful day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 8bp, FixedResets down 5bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 4bp. Volatility was negligible; volume was average.

In today’s cheerful European news, Italy got whacked at a bill auction:

Italy had to pay almost 7 percent to sell six-month bills at an auction today, fanning investor concern that the world’s fourth-biggest borrower may struggle to finance its debt. The euro fell to a seven-week low.

The Italian Treasury paid 6.504 percent to auction 8 billion euros ($10.6 billion) of the debt, almost twice the 3.535 percent a month ago and the highest since August 1997. Italy’s two-year bonds yielded a euro-era record 7.83 percent, almost 50 basis points more than 10-year notes.

The euro extended declines, shedding 0.9 percent to $1.3213, the lowest since Oct. 3. Italy’s FTSE MIB index was the biggest decliner among European benchmarks, shedding 1.3 percent at 3 p.m. in Rome. Banks tumbled with Banca Monte Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS) dropping 3.9 percent.

S&P downgraded Belgium to AA:

Belgium’s credit rating was cut one step to AA by Standard & Poor’s, which said bank guarantees, lack of policy consensus and slowing growth will make it difficult to reduce the euro region’s fifth-highest debt load.

The rating was lowered from AA+, with a negative outlook, London-based S&P said yesterday in a statement. The action by S&P is the first downgrade for Belgium in almost 13 years and puts its credit ranking on a par with the S&P local-currency ratings of the Czech Republic, Kuwait and Chile.

Belgium’s borrowing costs have surged to the highest level in 11 years in the past two months after the nation’s government agreed to buy Dexia SA’s Belgian bank unit and guarantee part of the crisis-hit lender’s liabilities for 10 years. Investors continued a selloff in Belgian bonds after six-party coalition talks ran aground this week as Liberals and Socialists clashed over how to cut the budget deficit.

TransCanada Corporation and its subsidiary TransCanada Pipelines Ltd., issuers of TRP.PR.A, TRP.PR.B, TRP.PR.C, TCA.PR.X and TCA.PR.Y were confirmed at Pfd-2(low) by DBRS:

DBRS has confirmed the ratings of TransCanada PipeLines Limited (TCPL or the Company) as listed below. DBRS has also confirmed the rating of the Preferred Shares of TransCanada Corporation (TCC) at Pfd-2 (low). The rating of TCC, which owns 100% of TCPL and holds no other material assets, is based on the credit strength of TCPL.
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The confirmation reflects the Company’s continued predictable cash flow from its regulated pipelines, which accounted for over 70% of consolidated EBITDA (for the first nine months (9M) of 2011). Pipeline EBITDA is supported by stable earnings that are mostly on a cost-of-service basis and/or contracted, and by incremental earnings contributed by newly constructed pipelines The remaining 30% of EBITDA is mostly contributed by power generation assets (60% in Canada and 40% in the United States). Although EBITDA from power generation is less predictable than the pipeline business, a sizable share of the power output is protected by long-term contracts with creditworthy parties.
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Capex over the next two years (excluding the Keystone XL project) is likely to be much lower than the $3.6 billion level of the 12 months ending September 30, 2011. DBRS expects free cash flow to be relatively neutral until the significant capex on Keystone XL or another large project is well underway. As a result, debt levels are expected to remain stable or decrease slightly over the medium term. Combined with higher cash flow expected from newly completed pipeline projects, DBRS expects TCPL’s credit metrics to improve modestly and remain well within the current rating category.

EMA.PR.A was confirmed at Pfd-3(high) by DBRS:

DBRS has today confirmed the Medium-Term Notes and Preferred Shares – Cumulative ratings of Emera Inc. (Emera or the Company) at BBB (high) and Pfd-3 (high), respectively, with Stable trends, based on the strong earnings and cash flows generated by its regulated operations and on Emera’s, reasonable non-consolidated financial profile. The ratings also reflect increasing diversification through the ownership of regulated utilities in different jurisdictions, which reduces dependence on earnings and cash flows from any one entity and reduces volatility of earnings. However, Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI) continues to account for the majority (approximately 70%) of Emera’s consolidated EBIT.

NSI.PR.D was confirmed at Pfd-2(low) by DBRS:

DBRS has today confirmed the ratings of the Unsecured Debentures & Medium-Term Notes, Commercial Paper and Cumulative Preferred Shares of Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI or the Company) at A (low), R-1 (low) and Pfd-2 (low), respectively, all with Stable trends. The ratings reflect stable and predictable regulated cash flows generated by the Company’s regulated monopolistic operations, diverse customer base and a supportive regulatory environment.

INE.PR.A was confirmed at Pfd-3(low) by DBRS:

DBRS has today confirmed the Issuer Rating of BBB (low) and the Preferred Shares rating of Pfd-3 (low) of Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. (Innergex or the Company). Both ratings have Stable trends. The ratings reflect the strength of the Company’s high-quality, low-cost renewable power generating assets, operating under long-term off-take contracts with highly-rated counterparties, and its consistent execution in developing and constructing new generating assets.
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Consolidated credit metrics are expected to remain weak for the rating category through the medium term, with EBITDA-to-interest in the 2.3 times (x) to 2.5x range and cash flow-to-debt in the 5% to 8% range. DBRS expects future modest improvement in coverage metrics as assets under construction are completed and enter service. Consolidated debt-to-capital, currently 63%, is expected to increase modestly over the next several years and peak in 2013 to 2014 until new construction assets begin to operate. Most of the consolidated debt (82%) is project-level debt and non-recourse to the Company.
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Business risk factors are low for the rating category. Innergex’s competitive position, asset composition and contractual position are all strong for the BBB (low) rating. Asset diversification and operational expertise also support the investment-grade quality assessment. In addition, the focus on renewable assets minimizes exposure to environmental regulation and is positive for the rating. The Company’s low business risk profile mitigates weaker financial credit metrics. Renewable resources are variable, reducing energy production stability and related cash flows. However, this risk is mainly offset by the geographic diversity of the generating portfolio. Also, the Company has cash-funded reserves at the project level (typically six months of debt service) to smooth variability in cash flows from wind/hydrology resources.

Today’s cheerful credit news is about Japan:

Standard & Poor’s said Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s administration hasn’t made progress in tackling the public debt burden, an indication it may be preparing to lower the nation’s sovereign grade.

“Japan’s finances are getting worse and worse every day, every second,” Takahira Ogawa, director of sovereign ratings at S&P in Singapore, said in an interview. Asked if that means he’s closer to cutting Japan, he said it “may be right in saying that we’re closer to a downgrade. But the deterioration has been gradual so far, and it’s not like we’re going to move today.”

Meanwhile, in Europe:

Stocks fell, Italian bonds declined and the cost of insuring European government debt against default rose to a record after German Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out joint euro-area borrowing.
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The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond climbed 14 basis points to 7.11 percent, while similar-maturity French debt yields rose three basis points to 3.72 percent.

Portugal’s bonds fell, with 10-year note yields climbing 90 basis points to 12.21 percent after Fitch Ratings cut the nation’s credit grade one step to BB+, the highest junk status.

Germany’s 10-year bond yield rose as much as 12 basis points to 2.26 percent before trading five basis points higher at 2.20 percent. Two-year note yields increased three basis points to 0.47 percent.

The Royal Canadian Mint’s gold receipt IPO appears to be going very well:

The Royal Canadian Mint raised C$600 million ($573 million) in an initial public offering of securities tied to its gold reserves, more than double its IPO target, according to two people familiar with the sale.

The mint initially sought to raise C$250 million from selling units in Canadian or U.S. dollars at C$20 or $19.29 each, the Ottawa-based firm said. Strong demand from institutional and individual investors drove up the size of the sale, said the people, who declined to be named because terms aren’t public.
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Each exchange-traded receipt represents ownership in physical gold bullion held in custody of the Royal Canadian Mint. Proceeds from the sale will be used to buy gold, and the buyers of the receipts will own the metal rather than a stake in the mint, according to an Oct. 28 statement.

Huxley said “History is bunk.” Moody’s says Hungary is junk:

Hungary lost its investment-grade rating at Moody’s Investors Service after 15 years as the Cabinet seeks International Monetary Fund help to boost confidence in the European Union’s most-indebted eastern member.

The foreign- and local-currency bond ratings were cut one step to Ba1, the highest junk-level score, from Baa3, the company said today in a statement. Moody’s, which awarded Hungary its investment grade in 1996, assigned a negative outlook. The country is rated the lowest investment grade at Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings.

The government has scrapped two debt sales and reduced the size of another eight auctions in the last three months as the euro region’s debt crisis deepened. Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Cabinet on Nov. 17 asked for IMF “insurance” that doesn’t entail a loan and doesn’t impose conditions.

It was a rough day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 24bp, FixedResets down 13bp and DeemedRetractibles off 8bp. Not much volatility. Volume was very light – not unexpectedly, what with the US turkeys.

Remember Iceland? The first domino? It’s through the worst of it, according to S&P:

Iceland had its credit rating outlook revised to stable from negative by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, which cited economic growth in the country after two years of “severe contraction.”

“Significant headway has been made in restructuring the private-sector balance sheet and we expect the process to be mostly completed by mid-2012,” S&P said. The BBB-/A-3 sovereign ratings were affirmed.

But other dominoes are toppling:

Germany failed to get bids for 35 percent of the 10-year bonds offered for sale today, propelling borrowing costs in Europe higher and the euro lower on concern the region’s debt crisis is driving away investors.
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The yield on Germany’s 2.25 percent securities maturing in September 2021 climbed 15 basis points to 2.06 percent at 4:46 p.m. London time.
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Belgian 10-year yields surged 41 basis points to 5.48 percent, after reaching 5.53 percent, the highest since November 2000. French 10-year bond yields climbed 16 basis points to 3.69 percent. The yield on Greek two-year notes jumped to more than 120 percent for the first time, before slipping back to 116.59 percent.

Total bids at the auction of securities due in January 2022 amounted to 3.889 billion euros, out of a maximum target for the sale of 6 billion euros, according to Bundesbank data.

Six of the last eight bond sales by Germany have been “technically uncovered,” with fewer bids than the maximum amount on offer, Norbert Aul, a rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London, said in an e-mailed note.

Under the German auction system, the central bank retains securities at sales for the secondary market. In today’s offering, the debt agency allotted 3.644 billion euros of the securities, leaving the Bundesbank to retain 2.356 billion euros, or 39 percent of the supply. That’s the highest proportion of unsold debt at a 10-year sale since 1995, according to Bloomberg data. The securities were sold at an average yield of 1.98 percent. In the secondary market, the rate rose to 2.13 percent.

DBRS confirmed Westcoast at Pfd-2(low):

DBRS has today confirmed the Unsecured Debentures, First Preferred Shares and Commercial Paper ratings of Westcoast Energy Inc. (Westcoast or the Company) at A (low), Pfd-2 (low) and R-1 (low), respectively, all with Stable trends.
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On a consolidated basis (excluding the intercompany transaction), the Company’s external debt-to-capital ratio (52% at September 30, 2011; 54% at year-end 2008) and cash flow-to-external debt (19% for both the 12 months ending September 30, 2011, and in 2008) were relatively unchanged, while external fixed charges coverage (2.8 times, up from 2.5 times) improved marginally, partly due to contributions from expansions placed in service as noted above.

On a non-consolidated basis, Westcoast’s direct ownership of BCPFS fully supports its ability to meet its direct debt obligations. Its credit metrics are enhanced by cash dividends from several sources, the largest of which is Union Gas, which generate approximately 50% of the Company’s non-consolidated cash flow. Excluding the intercompany transaction, Westcoast’s non-consolidated external debt-to-capital ratio increased to 36% in 2010 from 32% in 2008, while cash flow-to-external debt (25%, up from 16%) and external fixed charges coverage (3.2 times, up from 2.2 times) improved significantly, mainly as a result of contributions from expansions noted above.

TMX DataLinx has collywobbles yet again, so this report is being prepared with Yahoo! data.

It was a rough day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 9bp, FixedResets off 12bp and DeemedRetractibles losing 14bp. All five entries in the Performance Highlights table were losers. Volume was average.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.15% (this figure is somewhat distorted by the fact that five of the seventeen issues are actually at a premium now and another two are bang-on par; the index is only rebalanced monthly), equivalent to 6.70% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long Corporates are now at about 4.75%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 195bp, tightening a bit (perhaps spuriously) from the 205bp reported November 16.