EPP.PR.A & New Issue: DBRS Downgrades to Pfd-3

October 13th, 2009

I speculated last week that EPP.PR.A was at risk for a downgrade, and today DBRS downgraded EPP.PR.A to Pfd-3:

DBRS has today downgraded the rating of EPCOR Power Equity Ltd.’s (Power Equity) Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares, Series 1 (Series 1 Preferreds), to Pfd-3 from Pfd-3 (high). The trend remains Negative. This action follows Power Equity’s announcement that it has sold, via a bought deal arrangement, $100 million of Cumulative Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series 2 (Series 2 Preferreds), to which DBRS has assigned a rating of Pfd-3 with a Negative trend.

Power Equity is a wholly-owned subsidiary of EPCOR Power L.P. (Power LP), with Power LP guaranteeing, on a subordinated basis, certain amounts relating to Power Equity’s Series 1 Preferreds and Series 2 Preferreds (including payment of dividends, as and when declared). As such, the preferred share ratings of Power Equity continue to be based on the credit profile of Power LP. Following the sale of the Series 2 Preferreds, Power LP’s capitalization will include an amount of preferred equity (totalling approximately $220 million) that is large compared with the amount of the Partners’ equity on the balance sheet ($564 million as of June 30, 2009). The rating on the Series 1 Preferreds has been downgraded by one notch to Pfd-3 (with the same rating assigned to the Series 2 Preferreds) to reflect the now-significant amount of preferred equity Power LP carries in relation to its level of Partners’ equity.

Not the same reasons that triggered my speculation! That’s forecasting for you! DBRS continues:

The change in Power Equity’s preferred rating has no impact on the ratings of Power LP, which stand at: Senior Unsecured Debt & Medium-Term Notes of BBB (high) with a Negative trend, and a stability rating of STA-2 (low). See the DBRS press releases dated April 29, 2009, and June 8, 2009, for additional details on recent rating actions and the Negative trends. Since the change in trend from Stable to Negative in April, there have been two developments viewed as positive for Power LP’s credit profile: 1) a reduction in unit distributions, expected to conserve approximately $40 million in cash flow per year; and 2) the proceeds from the sale of the Series 2 Preferreds will be applied to debt reduction. Both of these developments should help Power LP avoid moving closer to its 65% debt-to-capitalization covenant. However, the trends will remain Negative until DBRS views Power LP’s capitalization as stable on a sustainable basis, and expected levels of cash flow are maintained.

Power LP recently stated that it was modestly reducing its financial expectations for 2009, largely as a result of low operating margins at its two North Carolina facilities. DBRS does not view this as a material change, as a reduced level of contributions from these facilities has already been factored into our analysis.

New Issue: EPP FixedReset 7.00%+418

October 13th, 2009

EPCOR Power Equity has announced:

that EPCOR Power Equity Ltd. will issue 4,000,000 Cumulative Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series 2 (the “Series 2 Shares”) at a price of $25.00 per share, for aggregate gross proceeds of $100 million (the “Offering”) on a bought deal agreement basis to a syndicate of underwriters in Canada led by CIBC World Markets Inc. and Scotia Capital Inc.

The Series 2 Shares will pay fixed cumulative dividends of $1.75 per share per annum, yielding 7.0% per annum, payable on the last business day of March, June, September and December of each year, as and when declared by the board of directors of the Corporation, for the initial five-year period ending December 31, 2014. The first quarterly dividend of $0.28288 per share is expected to be paid on December 31, 2009. The dividend rate will reset on December 31, 2014 and every five years thereafter at a rate equal to the sum of the then five-year Government of Canada bond yield and 4.18%. The Series 2 Shares are redeemable by the Corporation on December 31, 2014 and on December 31 every five years thereafter.

The holders of Series 2 Shares will have the right to convert their shares into Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares, Series 3 (the “Series 3 Shares”) of the Corporation, subject to certain conditions, on December 31, 2014 and on December 31 of every fifth year thereafter. The holders of Series 3 Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating rate cumulative dividends, as and when declared by the board of directors of the Corporation, at a rate equal to the sum of the then 90-day Government of Canada treasury bill rate and 4.18%.

The Partnership will fully and unconditionally guarantee the payment of dividends, as and when declared, the amounts payable on a redemption of the Series 2 Shares or Series 3 Shares for cash and the amounts payable in the event of the liquidation, dissolution and winding up of the Issuer.

The offering is expected to close on or about November 2, 2009, subject to certain conditions, including conditions set forth in the underwriting agreement. The net proceeds will be used to repay outstanding bank indebtedness.

The first coupon is scheduled for payment 12/31, for $0.28288, assuming closing 2009-11-2

Update: The PerpetualDiscount EPP.PR.A closed today at 16.55b to yield 7.42% at the bid price. Therefore, according to the BERS Calculator (and, of course, the assumptions embedded therein), the Break-Even Rate Shock is 0.62%.

October Edition of PrefLetter Released!

October 11th, 2009

The October, 2009, edition of PrefLetter has been released and is now available for purchase as the “Previous edition”. Those who subscribe for a full year receive the “Previous edition” as a bonus.

The October edition contains an appendix examining correlations between PerpetualDiscounts and other components of the spread to five-year Canadas, with notes on the implications for Market Timing.

As previously announced, PrefLetter is now available to residents of Alberta, British Columbia and Manitoba, as well as Ontario and to entities registered with the Quebec Securities Commission.

Until further notice, the “Previous Edition” will refer to the October, 2009, issue, while the “Next Edition” will be the November, 2009, issue, scheduled to be prepared as of the close November 13 and eMailed to subscribers prior to market-opening on November 16.

PrefLetter is intended for long term investors seeking issues to buy-and-hold. At least one recommendation from each of the major preferred share sectors is included and discussed.

Note: A recent enhancement to the PrefLetter website is the Subscriber Download Feature. If you have not received your copy, try it!

Note: PrefLetter, being delivered to clients as a large attachment by eMail, sometimes runs afoul of spam filters. If you have not received your copy within fifteen minutes of a release notice such as this one, please double check your (company’s) spam filtering policy and your spam repository. If it’s not there, contact me and I’ll get you your copy … somehow!

Note: There have been scattered complaints regarding inability to open PrefLetter in Acrobat Reader, despite my practice of including myself on the subscription list and immediately checking the copy received. I have had the occasional difficulty reading US Government documents, which I was able to resolve by downloading and installing the latest version of Adobe Reader. Also, note that so far, all complaints have been from users of Yahoo Mail. Try saving it to disk first, before attempting to open it.

October Edition of PrefLetter Now in Preparation

October 9th, 2009

The markets have closed and the October edition of PrefLetter is now being prepared.

PrefLetter is the monthly newsletter recommending individual issues of preferred shares to subscribers. There is at least one recommendation from every major type of preferred share with investment-grade constituents. The recommendations are taylored for “buy-and-hold” investors.

The October edition will contain an appendix examining correlations and the “Seniority Spread” between PerpetualDiscount issues and Long Term Corporate bonds.

Those taking an annual subscription to PrefLetter receive a discount on viewing of my seminars.

PrefLetter is available to residents of Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia and Manitoba as well as Quebec residents registered with their securities commission.

The October issue will be eMailed to clients and available for single-issue purchase with immediate delivery prior to the opening bell on Tuesday. I will write another post on the weekend advising when the new issue has been uploaded to the server … so watch this space carefully if you intend to order “Next Issue” or “Previous Issue”! Until then, the “Next Issue” is the October issue.

October 9, 2009

October 9th, 2009

The transfer of wealth from the banking to the shadow-banking sector got a boost today when Citigroup sold Philbro to Occidental:

Oil producer Occidental Petrol Corp., based in Los Angeles, will pay “net asset value” for the unit, the companies said today. Occidental’s net investment in Phibro will be about $250 million. The sale won’t be material to Citigroup earnings, the New York-based bank said.

Phibro had become a flashpoint for critics of excessive compensation at banks receiving federal aid because its chief, 58-year-old Andrew J. Hall, was paid more than $100 million in 2008 and is set to earn about the same this year. Citigroup, the third-biggest U.S. bank by assets, received a $45 billion taxpayer-funded bailout last year.

Vikram Pandit, 52, Citigroup’s chief executive officer, is parting with one of his most consistently profitable businesses.

Phibro, based in Westport, Connecticut, has been profitable each fiscal year since 1997, with pretax earnings averaging $371 million during the past five years, Occidental said in its statement. Citigroup had a record $27.7 billion net loss last year as the financial crisis brought mortgage-trading losses and higher loan charge-offs.

Hall, who has a degree in chemistry from the University of Oxford, is paid under a contract that gave him a portion of the unit’s trading results, and he may be owed $100 million this year under the terms of his contract with Citigroup, according to people familiar with the matter.

In Canada, of course, we solve such problems by putting an army of accountants and lawyers on the case, finding a few minor transgressions and firing the bum who made the mistake of being too good at his job. I am glad to see that Citigroup executives have more personal integrity.

Government bonds got hammered today. Across the Curve articulates my thoughts on the matter:

I was in the insomniac zone last night and was up late writing. I wrote about the Bernanke speech. I thought that he broke no new ground. Absolutely none. But some of the headline writers have focused on the fact that he mentioned that the Federal Reserve will raise rates when the economy recovers. Well, I wonder who would have been so obtuse as to think otherwise?

Aided by the Canadian jobs number, the Canadian five-year got smacked for 23bp today, closing at 2.75%. It is interesting to speculate whether the implied narrowing in required reset spreads will bring a flood of FixedReset issuance next week … I trust all the newly indentured investment bankers will be working their telephones from their call-centres.

There could be an interesting ‘cram-down’ battle going on with Energy Future:

— Energy Future Holdings Corp.bondholders are forming a group to block the electricity provider’s offer to swap $6 billion of debt for $4 billion of new secured notes with less protection for investors, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Lenders owning as much as 50 percent of Energy Future’s bonds maturing in 2017 oppose the terms of the exchange, said an attorney familiar with the matter who declined to be identified because the discussions are private.

Dallas-based Energy Future, formerly TXU Corp., needs to reduce debt after KKR & Co. and TPG Inc. paid $43 billion for the company using a combination of high-yield, high-risk loans and bonds in October 2007. That was before gas prices fell, credit markets seized up and equity markets tumbled.

Energy Future has $44.5 billion of loans and bonds, including $22.5 billion coming due in 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The company “is suffering under the weight of an untenable debt load created by an ill-timed leveraged buyout at the top of the market,” Carl Blake, a Washington-based analyst at Gimme Credit LLC, wrote in an Oct. 6 report.

We will see more of this as the smoke clears – we saw some yesterday with the BAM acquisition of BBI.

I mentioned the controversy regarding the Federal Housing Authority yesterday. Here’s a defense of their business practices from the chair of the House Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity, Maxine Waters:

It is a myth that FHA is the new subprime and has adopted lower underwriting standards and the other worst abuses of the subprime market. In fact, just the opposite is true. A recent Federal Reserve report indicates that over 60 percent of the increase in FHA purchase activity between 2007 and 2008 was to borrowers with prime-quality FICO scores. Additionally, the percentage of loans in FHA’s portfolio with loan-to-value ratios above 95 percent has fallen from 72 percent in 2007 to 67 percent in 2008. And unlike the subprime market, all of FHA’s mortgages require full documentation and verification of the borrower’s income and assets.

The preferred share market was down again today, with PerpetualDiscounts down 24bp and FixedResets giving up 7bp; as always, figures are given in terms of total return. The S&P/TSX Preferred Share Index was down 41bp, as opposed to no change yesterday; I have been asked about such differences and suspect that S&P uses the Close to price the index, rather than the Closing Bid used by HIMIPref™, although their published methodology does not make this absolutely explicit. Volume was good.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4405 % 1,504.8
FixedFloater 5.82 % 4.06 % 45,009 18.51 1 -0.4797 % 2,636.5
Floater 2.59 % 3.00 % 101,127 19.76 3 0.4405 % 1,879.9
OpRet 4.91 % -0.55 % 133,179 0.14 15 -0.2134 % 2,276.3
SplitShare 6.44 % 6.48 % 646,605 3.98 2 0.2673 % 2,053.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2134 % 2,081.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.90 % 5.91 % 150,084 13.97 11 -0.0330 % 1,851.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.92 % 5.96 % 217,782 13.95 62 -0.2381 % 1,749.6
FixedReset 5.51 % 4.13 % 434,307 4.06 41 -0.0735 % 2,106.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -2.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 21.51
Evaluated at bid price : 21.51
Bid-YTW : 6.26 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount -1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 20.74
Evaluated at bid price : 20.74
Bid-YTW : 6.17 %
GWO.PR.J FixedReset -1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.47
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
POW.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 23.44
Bid-YTW : 6.21 %
TD.PR.P Perpetual-Discount -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 22.38
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %
PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 23.20
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 6.12 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 20.65
Evaluated at bid price : 20.65
Bid-YTW : 6.09 %
HSB.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 21.52
Evaluated at bid price : 21.52
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %
MFC.PR.A OpRet -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2015-12-18
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.85
Bid-YTW : 3.54 %
BMO.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 20.26
Evaluated at bid price : 20.26
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
TRI.PR.B Floater 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 2.06 %
GWO.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 1.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 18.75
Evaluated at bid price : 18.75
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
GWO.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 21.65
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
GWO.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 278,790 RBC crossed 62,900 at 18.92; Nesbitt crossed three blocks, of 90,000 shares, 50,000 shares and 60,000 shares, at 18.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 18.75
Evaluated at bid price : 18.75
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
CM.PR.A OpRet 224,400 RBC crossed 99,000 at 25.90; Nesbitt crossed blocks of 50,000 shares, 20,000 shares and 55,000 shares at 25.95.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2009-11-08
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : -16.82 %
PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Discount 149,780 New issue settled today.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 24.15
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %
TD.PR.O Perpetual-Discount 130,801 RBC crossed 111,000 at 21.43.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 21.44
Evaluated at bid price : 21.44
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %
RY.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 69,450 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 20.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 20.06
Evaluated at bid price : 20.06
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
TD.PR.P Perpetual-Discount 63,570 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 22.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 22.38
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %
There were 43 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

PWF.PR.O Dives on Opening; Still Expensive

October 9th, 2009

Power Financial Corporation has announced:

the successful completion and closing of an offering of 6,000,000 Non-Cumulative First Preferred Shares, Series O (the “Series O Shares”), priced at $25.00 per share to raise gross proceeds of $150 million.

The issue was bought by an underwriting group led by BMO Capital Markets, Scotia Capital Inc. and RBC Capital Markets.

The Series O Shares will be listed and posted for trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “PWF.PR.O”. Proceeds from the issue will be used to supplement Power Financial’s financial resources and for general corporate purposes.

This 5.80% Straight was announced last week.

PWF.PR.O traded 149,780 shares in a range of 25.35-50 before closing at 24.35-39.

Vital statistics are:

PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Discount YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-10-09
Maturity Price : 24.15
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %

PWF.PR.O is tracked by HIMIPref™. It has been assigned to the PerpetualDiscount index.

It’s interesting to look at the comparators:

PWF.PR.O and its Comparators
Ticker Dividend Quote
10/9
Yield
10/9
PWF.PR.K 1.2375 20.43-62 6.08-01%
PWF.PR.L 1.275 20.74-99 6.17-08%
PWF.PR.F 1.3125 21.60-68 6.10-07%
PWF.PR.E 1.375 23.01-48 5.96-81%
PWF.PR.H 1.4375 23.50-77 6.12-04%
PWF.PR.O 1.45 24.35-39 5.99-98%
PWF.PR.G 1.475 24.30-40 6.07-02%
PWF.PR.I 1.50 24.80-85 6.05-04%

SBN.PR.A: Warrants to be Offered to Capital Unitholders

October 9th, 2009

S Split Corp has announced:

that it has filed a preliminary short form prospectus relating to an offering of Warrants to holders of Class A Shares of the Fund. Each Class A sharholder of record on the record date will receive one Warrant for each Class A Share held. Each Warrant will entitle its holder to acquire one Class A Share and one Preferred Share upon payment of the subscription price. The record date and the subscription price will be determined at the time the Fund files its final prospectus for the offering. The Fund has applied to list the Warrants and the Class A Shares and the Preferred Shares issuable upon the exercise thereof on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The exercise of Warrants by holders will provide the Fund with additional capital that can be used to take advantage of attractive investment opportunities and is also expected to increase the trading liquidity of the Class A Shares and the Preferred Shares and to reduce the management expense ratio of the Fund.

The Fund invests in a portfolio of common shares of The Bank of Nova Scotia. To generate additional returns above the distributions earned on its securities, the Fund may, from time to time, write covered call options in respect of some or all of the securities in its portfolio. The Fund may also, from time to time, write cash-covered put options in respect of securities in which the Fund is permitted to invest. The Fund’s investment portfolio is managed by its investment manager, Mulvihill Capital Management Inc.

The preliminary prospectus does not yet appear to be available.

SBN.PR.A is scheduled to be wound-up 2014-12-1. It seems too early to be looking for a term extension; perhaps the prospectus, when available, will clarify the matter. SBN.PR.A has an Asset Coverage of 2.1-:1 as of September 30.

SBN.PR.A was last mentioned on PrefBlog when it was downgraded to Pfd-3 by DBRS. SBN.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™, but has been relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

WFS.PR.A: Warrants to be Offered to Capital Unitholders

October 9th, 2009

World Financial Split Corp. has announced:

that it has filed a preliminary short form prospectus relating to an offering of Warrants to holders of Class A Shares of the Fund. Each Class A shareholder of record on the record date will receive one Warrant for each Class A Share held. Each Warrant will entitle its holder to acquire one Class A Share and one Preferred Share upon payment of the subscription price. The record date and the subscription price will be determined at the time the Fund files its final prospectus for the offering. The Fund has applied to list the Warrants and the Class A Shares and the Preferred Shares issuable upon the exercise thereof on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The exercise of Warrants by holders will provide the Fund with additional capital that can be used to take advantage of attractive investment opportunities and is also expected to increase the trading liquidity of the Class A Shares and the Preferred Shares and to reduce the management expense ratio of the Fund.

The Fund invests in a portfolio that includes common equity securities selected from the ten largest financial services companies by market capitalization in each of Canada, the United States and the rest of the world (the “Portfolio Universe”). In addition, up to 20% of the NAV of the Fund may be invested in common equity securities of financial services companies that are not in the Portfolio Universe but meet certain market capitalization and credit rating thresholds. To generate additional returns above the distributions earned on its securities, the Fund may, from time to time, write covered call options in respect of some or all of the securities in its portfolio. The Fund may also, from time to time, write cash-covered put options in respect of securities in which the Fund is permitted to invest. The Fund’s investment portfolio is managed by its investment manager, Mulvihill Capital Management Inc.

The preliminary prospectus does not yet appear to be available.

WFS.PR.A has an Asset Coverage of 1.4-:1 as of September 30 and is scheduled to be wound-up 2011-6-30; I suspect that a term extension is in the works.

WFS.PR.A was last mentioned on PrefBlog with the reminder that the Capital Unit dividend was still suspended – it cannot be paid unless Asset Coverage of the preferreds is greater than 1.5:1. WFS.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™, but is relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

Reminder: Seminar, Thursday October 15, Fixed Income and Preferred Shares

October 9th, 2009

I just want to remind everyone about the seminar on Thursday October 15 in downtown Toronto at 6pm. This one is free, although I haven’t decided yet – decisions, decisions! – whether or not to charge for the video of the event.

In my paper Preferred Shares and GICs I introduced the concept that any fixed-income investment portfolio is a compromise between:

  • Security of Principal, and
  • Security of Income

Many investors emphasize the first attribute while ignoring the second to their ultimate discomfort.

Other commonly made errors are:

  • Paying too much for liquidity
  • Insufficient diversification
  • Overemphasis on current income
  • Insufficient attention to issuer options
  • Attempting to address all risks with one particular investment
  • Underemphasis on tax effects

In this seminar, I explain that "risk" cannot be thought of as a position on a number line: there are many different kinds of risk and portfolios must be constructed to account for all of them – no single investment can do it. I also explain how preferred shares can fit into a fixed income portfolio, bringing their own strengths to offset the weaknesses of other fixed-income investments.

There is no charge for attendance at this seminar; there will be opportunity after the session to discuss the material informally.

Location: Days Hotel & Conference Center, (at Carlton & College, downtown Toronto) Rosedale Room (see map).

Time: October 15, 2009, 6pm-9pm.

The seminar will be filmed for later distribution.

Advance registration may be performed on-line.

Stock / Bond Correlation and Financial Stress

October 9th, 2009

Just a quick note here … the Kansas City Fed published a paper by Craig S. Hakkio and William R. Keeton titled Financial Stress: What Is It, How Can It Be Measured and Why Does It Matter?.

One of the coefficients is the stock/bond correlation.

Correlation between returns on stocks and Treasury bonds. In normal times, the returns on stocks and government bonds are either unrelated or move together in response to changes in the risk-free discount rate. In times of financial stress, however, investors may view stocks as much riskier than government bonds. If so, they will shift out of stocks into bonds, causing the returns on the two assets to move in opposite directions. A number of studies, some for the United States and some for other countries, confirm that the correlation between stock returns and government bond returns tends to turn negative during financial crises (Andersson and others; Baur and Lucey; Connolly and others; Gonzalo and Olmo). Thus, the stock-bond correlation provides an additional measure of the flight to quality during periods of financial stress. This correlation is computed over rolling three month periods using the S&P 500 and a 2-year Treasury bond index. Also, the negative value of the correlation is used in the KCFSI, so that increases in the measure correspond to increases in financial stress.

The authors are somewhat critical of the Bank of Canada Stress Index:

It includes some variables, such as exchange rate volatility, that are more important for a small open economy like Canada’s than for the United States. It includes the slope of the yield curve, which likely reveals more about the stance of monetary policy than financial stress. And it fails to include any measures of investor uncertainty about bank stock prices.

There appears to be some predictive value in the index:

As shown in the accompanying box, high values of the KCFSI have tended to either coincide with or precede tighter credit standards over the last 20 years. This evidence suggests that changes in credit standards provide an additional channel through which financial stress may affect economic activity.

Regretably, the authors do not dicuss whether these changes in credit standards can be better predicted by other methodologies. I have the same problem with their analysis of the predictive power of the KCFSI on the value of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.

The authors suggest that the KCFSI could be used to help time the Fed’s exit strategy for the current crisis, but are, frankly, rather unconvincing.

Anyway, the index is down again for September, after a huge decline from the October 2008 peak, but still above July 2007.