Archive for January, 2007

Mean-YTW on SplitShare Index Goes Negative!

Tuesday, January 9th, 2007

As noted on the January 9, 2007 Market Action report, the mean-yield-to-worst on the Split Share index has now gone negative.

This is due to the exceptional performance of DIV.PR.A, which had a stellar bid/bid return today of +1.2128%, despite the fact that it is currently callable at prices well below its current quotation. Will the market never learn?

Even after the recent call for redemption of the CVF.PR.A shares (under the same management as DIV.PR.A), people still do these things. If I thought that they were knowingly taking the risk, having explicitly taken a view on the likelihood of redemtption, it wouldn’t bother me so much … but that’s not what I think and I am bothered.

A portfolio evaluation of the split-share index as of today is available here.

January 9, 2007

Tuesday, January 9th, 2007
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.10% 4.11% 28,159 17.23 1 +0.0403% 1,028.0
Fixed-Floater 4.77% 3.54% 83,031 8.35 7 +0.2138% 1,040.8
Floater 4.57% -22.61% 65,413 4.60 4 -0.0488% 1,042.6
Op. Retract 4.67% 1.76% 81,891 2.04 17 -0.0433% 1,032.3
Split-Share 5.11% -0.33% 189,349 2.25 10 +0.0979% 1,045.8
Interest Bearing 6.70% 5.30% 74,556 2.66 6 -0.0742% 1,035.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.01% 3.61% 257,288 4.86 55 -0.0071% 1,054.2
Perpetual-Discount 4.50% 4.52% 790,212 16.36 3 -0.0534% 1,056.1
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
ACO.PR.A OpRet -1.7764% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 1.48% based on a bid of $28.20 and a call 2008-12-31 at $26.00. Even after today’s loss and even assuming there is no early call, the softMaturity at $25.00 on 2011-11-30 is not very attractive, yielding 3.07%
IAG.PR.A PerpetualPremium -1.3018% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.61% based on a bid of $25.02 and a limitMaturity
DIV.PR.A SplitShare +1.2128% The current bid of $25.87 seems very aggressive, given that the issue is currently callable at $25.20, resulting in a pre-tax bid-YTW of -22.71% based on the call being effective 2007-2-8. It could yield 4.63% if it lasts until its maturity at $25.00 2009-12-31, but that’s a bit of a gamble. It was due to this performance – sending the issue’s YTW from negative to even more negative – that the splitShare index mean-YTW went negative.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BC.PR.B FixedFloater 40,800 TD crossed 39,200 at 25.25.
CM.PR.D PerpetualPremium 32,445 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 2.91% based on a bid of $26.85 and a call at $26.00 on 2008-05-30. There are clearly some among us who think that won’t happen!
PWF.PR.K PerpetualPremium 23,675 RBC crossed 20,000 at $26.30. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.18% based on a bid of $26.26 and a call 2014-11-30 at 25.00.
CM.PR.G PerpetualPremium 20,815 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.93% based on a bid of $26.98 and a call 2010-5-31 at $26.00
CM.PR.H PerpetualPremium 20,800 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.69% based on a bid of 25.59 and a call 2014-04-29 at $25.00.

There were nine other “$25 p.v. equivalent” index-included issues with over 10,000 shares traded today.

FIG.PR.A / FCI.PR.A / FCF.PR.A / FCN.PR.A Merger Meeting Adjourned

Tuesday, January 9th, 2007

Amendment to Quorum Requirements The Trust Agreement currently provides that quorum for any meeting of Unitholders called to consider a matter requiring the approval of Unitholders by an Ordinary Resolution is two or more Unitholders present in person or represented by proxy holding not less than ten percent (10%) of the Units then outstanding, and the quorum for any meeting of Unitholders called to consider a matter requiring the approval of Unitholders by an Extraordinary Resolution is two or more Unitholders present in person or represented by proxy holding not less than twenty five percent (25%) of the Units. In order to make it easier for quorum to be achieved with respect to any particular meeting, and thus reduce administrative costs associated with the necessity of holding adjourned meetings, Unitholders of Income & Growth Split will be asked to consider and, if deemed advisable, to pass resolutions decreasing the quorum requirement for any meeting called to consider a matter requiring the approval of Unitholders by either an Ordinary Resolution or an Extraordinary Resolution to one or more Unitholders present in person or represented by proxy holding not less than five percent (5%) of the Units then outstanding and to amend the adjournment requirements so that an adjourned meeting may be held at such time and place and on such date as may be fixed by the chairman of the meeting.

Well, we now know why they felt it advisable to change the quorum requirement! 

According to a press release on Canada Newswire

A quorum was not present at each of the meetings and as a result, the special meetings for these funds were adjourned to January 23, 2007 at the offices of Stikeman Elliott LLP, Boardroom 3, 51st Floor, 199 Bay Street, Toronto, Ontario M5L1B9.

The merger, therefore, will have to wait … even after I went to the trouble of adding FIG.PR.A to the HIMIPref™ database!

January 8, 2007

Tuesday, January 9th, 2007
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.11% 4.12% 29,321 17.22 1 -0.8397% 1,027.5
Fixed-Floater 4.78% 3.52% 83,608 8.36 7 +0.5784% 1,038.6
Floater 4.56% -22.62% 65,494 4.60 4 +0.2368% 1,043.1
Op. Retract 4.67% 1.90% 81,625 2.04 17 -0.0274% 1,032.8
Split-Share 5.11% 1.02% 191,300 2.26 10 -0.0159% 1,049.5
Interest Bearing 6.70% 5.56% 74,024 2.38 6 -0.0260% 1,036.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.01% 3.47% 261,681 4.76 55 -0.0875% 1,054.2
Perpetual-Discount 4.50% 4.52% 797,867 16.37 3 -0.3876% 1,056.6
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
WFS.PR.A SplitShare -1.0082% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 10.80 and a hardMaturity 2011-06-30 at $10.00
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
RY.PR.A PerpetualPremium 120,400 Scotia crossed 86,600 at 25.00 – possibly related to the Scotia and BMO new issues announced today.
CM.PR.I PerpetualPremium 112,816 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.61% based on a bid of $25.16 and a call 2016-3-1 at $25.00.
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 77,600 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.60% based on a bid of $24.90 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.O PerpetualPremium 70,900 Nesbitt crossed 40,000 at 26.30. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.05% based on a bid of $26.30 and a call 2014-11-30 at $25.00.
MFC.PR.B PerpetualPremium 52,650 Nesbitt crossed 45,000 at $25.80. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.26% based on a bid of $25.71 and a call 2014-4-18 at $25.00

There were twenty other “$25 p.v. equivalent” index-included issues with over 10,000 shares traded today.

New Issue : 4.50% Scotia Perpetuals

Monday, January 8th, 2007

The first week of the new year has started with a bang!
The Bank of Nova Scotia has announced a bought deal for 12-million shares @ $25: these will be designated “Non-Cumulative Preferred Shares, Series 14”. The anticipated closing date is January 24, 2007.
The redemption schedule is:

Redemption Schedule, BNS Ser 14
From To Price
2012-4-26 2013-4-25 $26.00
2013-4-26 2014-4-25 $25.75
2014-4-26 2015-4-25 $25.50
2015-4-26 2016-4-25 $25.25
2016-4-26 INFINITE DATE $25.00

More later.

Later, more:

Comparator Characteristics
Issue BNS.PR.K CM.PR.I RY.PR.D BMO.PR.? BNS.PR.?
Dividend 1.20 1.175 1.125 1.125 1.125
Quote 25.85-96 25.16-36 25.11-20 25.00 Issue 25.00 Issue
Redemption Schedule Start 2010-4-28 2012-1-31 2012-02-24 2012-2-25 2012-4-26
Price due to base-rate 24.25 24.07 23.45 23.38 23.37
Price due to short-term 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03
Price due to long-term 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.46 0.46
Price due to error -0.01 0.02 -0.03 0.00 0.00
Price due to Credit Spread (Low) N/A -0.54 N/A N/A N/A
Intrinsic Curve Price 24.77 24.08 23.94 23.87 23.86
Price due to Liquidity 0.52 1.50 1.51 1.51? 1.51?
Curve Price 25.29 25.58 25.45 25.38? 25.37?
Yield-to-Worst (after Tax) 3.37% 3.66% 3.58% 3.58% 3.57%
Yield-to-Worst (Pre-Tax) 4.24% 4.61% 4.51% 4.50% 4.49%

 

So … the new issue looks like a good, but not great, purchase at the issue price.

New Issue: BMO 4.50% Perpetuals

Monday, January 8th, 2007

The first week of the new year has started with a bang!

BMO has announced a bought deal for 14-million shares @ $25: these will be designated “Non-Cumulative Perpetual Class B Preferred Shares, Series 13”.

The anticipated closing date is January 17, 2007.

The redemption schedule is:

Redemption Schedule, BMO Ser 13
From To Price
2012-2-25 2013-2-24 $26.00
2013-2-25 2014-2-24 $25.75
2014-2-25 2015-2-24 $25.50
2015-2-25 2016-2-24 $25.25
2016-2-25 INFINITE DATE $25.00

More later.

Later, more:

Comparator Characteristics
Issue BNS.PR.K CM.PR.I RY.PR.D BMO.PR.? BNS.PR.?
Dividend 1.20 1.175 1.125 1.125 1.125
Quote 25.85-96 25.16-36 25.11-20 25.00 Issue 25.00 Issue
Redemption Schedule Start 2010-4-28 2012-1-31 2012-02-24 2012-2-25 2012-4-26
Price due to base-rate 24.25 24.07 23.45 23.38 23.37
Price due to short-term 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03
Price due to long-term 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.46 0.46
Price due to error -0.01 0.02 -0.03 0.00 0.00
Price due to Credit Spread (Low) N/A -0.54 N/A N/A N/A
Intrinsic Curve Price 24.77 24.08 23.94 23.87 23.86
Price due to Liquidity 0.52 1.50 1.51 1.51? 1.51?
Curve Price 25.29 25.58 25.45 25.38? 25.37?
Yield-to-Worst (after Tax) 3.37% 3.66% 3.58% 3.58% 3.57%
Yield-to-Worst (Pre-Tax) 4.24% 4.61% 4.51% 4.50% 4.49%

So … the new issue looks like a good, but not great, purchase at the issue price.

CL.PR.B : A Big Day, Yield-To-Worst Goes Negative

Sunday, January 7th, 2007

As noted in the January 5, 2007, Commentary, the yieldToWorst on CL.PR.B has gone negative … again! This happened previously on November 29, 2006 and I suggested then – and I still suggest – that this issue is a prime candidate for redemption.

Great-West’s last issue, GWO.PR.I, was issued in mid-April 2006, is still trading heavily and is yielding 4.53% based on a limitMaturity and GWO (who own CL) may well decide that with all the money flying around during RRSP season, now is a good time to refinance.

I’ve uploaded a graph of yieldToWorst for the past year, along with another one of flatBidPrice.

CL.PR.B hasn’t been a particularly enthralling issue to own for the last year, as this data from the performanceBox shows:

2005-12-30 0.00 27.26
2006-01-31  0.00  26.50
2006-02-28  0.00  27.27
2006-03-01  -0.39  26.72
2006-03-31  0.00  26.43
2006-04-28  0.00  26.20
2006-05-31  -0.39  26.37
2006-06-30  0.00  26.08
2006-07-31  0.00  26.24
2006-08-30  -0.39  26.14
2006-08-31  0.00  26.09
2006-09-29  0.00  26.25
2006-10-31  0.00  26.21
2006-11-29  -0.39  26.30
2006-11-30  0.00  26.15
2006-12-29  0.00  26.05
2007-01-05  0.00  26.43

The quarterly numbers do not compare well with the quarterly returns posted by Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund:

Quarterly
Period Ending CL.PR.B MAPF
2006-03-31 -1.63 % +1.45%
2006-06-30 0.15 % -1.37%
2006-09-29 2.15 % +3.51%
2006-12-29 0.73 % +3.20%

Total return for the period 2005-12-30 to 2007-1-5 is 2.8266%

January 5, 2007

Sunday, January 7th, 2007
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.07% 4.08% 29,768 17.29 1 +0.0400% 1,036.2
Fixed-Floater 4.79% 3.60% 84,265 8.36 7 -0.0211% 1,037.0
Floater 4.58% -22.40% 65,782 8.23 4 0.1188% 1,040.6
Op. Retract 4.67% 1.65% 81,811 2.05 17 -0.0232% 1,033.1
Split-Share 5.11% 1.24% 192,206 2.27 10 +0.0240% 1,045.0
Interest Bearing 6.70% 5.46% 74,078 2.39 6 +0.1327% 1,036.4
Perpetual-Premium 4.99% 3.21% 261,337 4.67 55 +0.0012% 1,055.2
Perpetual-Discount 4.48% 4.50% 790,937 16.41 3 +0.0001% 1,060.8
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.F PerpetualPremium -1.3904% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 2.14% based on a bid of $27.66 and a call 2008-10-30 at $26.00. Given that it pays $1.475, I wouldn’t bet against the early call, but some would, hoping, I suppose, for a call 2012-10-30 at $25.00 to yield 3.89%.
CL.PR.B PerpetualPremium +1.3809% Another high-paying issue (pays $1.5625 annually) with a pre-tax bid-YTW of -12.20 based on a call 2007-02-04 at $26.00. Given that we’re now a week into the first call period and there’s been no news, I suppose there are some that are hoping that the issue won’t be called … but I’m not one of them!
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 36,820 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.53% based on a bid of $24.91 and a limitMaturity
CM.PR.B PerpetualPremium 27,290 This has been called for redemption.
BAM.PR.M PerpetualPremium 26,925 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.66% based on a bid of $25.24 and a call 2016-3-1 at $25.00.
PWF.PR.J OpRet 25,003 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 2.23% based on a bid of $27.03 and a call 2008-5-30 at $26.00. It would appear that many investors are hoping for the softMaturity 2013-7-30 at $25.00, yielding 3.47%. Given that it pays $1.175 p.a. and the call premium declines by $0.25 annually, they might be right – but I won’t bet on it!
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount 20,337 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.49% based on a bid of $24.85 and a limitMaturity.

There were ten other “$25 p.v. equivalent” index-included issues with over 10,000 shares traded today.

FIG.PR.A Added to HIMIPref™ Database

Saturday, January 6th, 2007

I have added Income & Growth Split Trust Preferred Sec to the HIMIPref™ database for a number of reasons, mainly the probability that several other preferred securities I track will be converted into this security next week (FCI.PR.A, FCF.PR.A, FCN.PR.A).

I can’t say I’m a big fan of this issue. It has had a continuous call at par effective since issue date, which is annoying. I have long been an advocate of a declining call premium on split share preferreds, so that preferred holders have at least a sporting chance of a capital gain and can plan their portfolios with a bit more confidence.

According to their annual report, the fund had no redemptions in 2005, but this situation has changed markedly in 2006. The third-quarter report discloses that of the 5,545,000 units outstanding Dec. 31, 2005, 2,375,599 (or 42.8%) had been redeemed. No wonder they got the urge to merge!

Assuming they get approval, the underlying investments won’t be solely Income Trusts any more – the Investment strategy will include:

Subject to the Investment Restrictions, the net proceeds of any Offering, together with any amounts drawn under the Loan Facility, will under normal market conditions be invested by the Trust in an actively managed diversified portfolio of securities, consisting of the following asset classes: (i) Income Fund Securities, (ii) Dividend-Paying North American Equities, (iii) Non-Investment Grade Debt; (iv) Short Term Investments; (v) Convertible Debt; and (vi) other income-generating securities.’’

Which doesn’t sound exactly 100% thrilling, but as long as there’s a hefty asset coverage ratio, the pref holders shouldn’t mind.

CVF.PR.A to be Redeemed

Friday, January 5th, 2007

Via CCN Matthews:

Coastal Value Fund (TSX:CVF.PR.A) announced today that it will redeem all of its issued Senior Preferred shares on February 21, 2007 to holders of record on February 20, 2007. The redemption will be made in accordance with the Fund’s articles and results from a retraction of the Capital shares. Shareholders need not take any action relating to the redemption; the Fund’s transfer agent CIBC Mellon will automatically redeem the shares on February 21, 2007 and deposit cash proceeds directly into shareholder’s accounts equal to $25.4125, representing $25.20 per share plus $0.2125 per share representing accrued and unpaid dividends. Post the redemption, the Senior Preferred shares will no long be listed on the TSX.

It closed today at $25.80-25, 2×2, on no volume. Due to its usual low volume, it is not currently included in any of the HIMI Preferred Indices.

More later.

Later, more: From the graph of flatBidPrice, it is apparent that this issue has participated in the excellent returns posted by preferred shares in the last six months. It is also apparent, from the graph of yieldToWorst, that investors have been ignoring the worst-case scenario when investing.